"Prepare for deflation in 2023"

[Wind_FURY]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

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[Husires]

The Federal Reserve is now watching the markets closely, and the continuity of withdrawing liquidity for a long period will accelerate avoiding deflation. It is easy to pump liquidity, but it will make it difficult to reach “healthy” inflation during the current fiscal year.

I am afraid of what is happening in China. The last thing we are waiting to see now is the return of  COVID19 with a good mutation, which means more health restrictions.
And the war that is taking place in Ukraine and the lack of control over it.
The energy crisis and its problems, especially with the European economy.

So we have enough problems to fear deflation

[livingfree]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

We passed on a bear market for an entire year and the cycle that we believe happens is going to set a bull run. That's what we're set to believe and if the same run just as those years, it's going to be a big bull run again.

But as years have seen that there could be a change which is about to come and just as you've said, the bull run might come earlier than expected.

Anyway, if it goes like that then I'm thankful but if not then that's just fine.

[Fortify]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I think for most people deflation would be a very welcome and pleasant reversal of the recent inflation over the last couple years. Inflation was getting carried away so a couple years of similar deflation would actually just return some level of stability and hopefully more competition between different companies that will ultimately bring the price down for end buyers. As long as it doesn't turn into stagflation which Japan suffered from for a long time, which is probably unrealistic because they had a lot of economic factors conspiring against them to create that unique situation. In the ideal world the war in Ukraine would stop and allow food supplies to slowly improve, along with Russia being able to sell energy again to Europe and improving all sorts of logistic chain pricing.

[Captain Corporate]

They wouldn't print money, they would just drop the interest, which means people who got the printed money last year, that invested it into banks and interest because interest rate went up, will take their money out. Hence, during inflation there was a lot of money in the market, then interest went up, so the market had less money, then interest will go down, so market will have that money again without needing to print anything. That is a good way to arrange everything, we didn't needed all that money all that quickly, so slowly putting it out there would be a smarter way for sure.

[Hydrogen]

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

If US inflation is 7% annually.

What effect will it have on 30 year mortgage loans?

I think the fed will be forced to raise interest rates on loans. Which could incentivize markets to seek alternative sources of credit and liquidity. In a best and worse case scenario, crypto based sources of credit and liquidity could gain higher demand due to them supplying credit and liquidity without the rising interest rates.

Raising rates could reduce competitive advantages of conventional bank loan markets. Opening the door for crypto to take prominence. Although recent history has shown markets and regulation trends have swung in directions which are far from linear.

The feds alleged brrr money printing is something I remember complaining about back in 2012. I've waited so many years for the fed money printer to go brrr. That I've reached a point where even I have a hard time believing the feds money printing might actually have an effect.

Another thing to consider is the feds money printer might go the opposite of brrr. Which could lead to credit and liquidity shortages. Those conditions might actually be worse than most of what we have seen so far.

[franky1]

fiat will never deflate

recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation

instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate

going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation

deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation

[adaseb]

Many economists and hedge fund managers are basically thinking we are going to repeat the 1970s. Where in 6 months we will see deflation due to a recession and what will happen is the bonds will rally along with stocks and Bitcoin because the fed will print more money.

Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.

[franky1]

Many economists and hedge fund managers are basically thinking we are going to repeat the 1970s. Where in 6 months we will see deflation due to a recession and what will happen is the bonds will rally along with stocks and Bitcoin because the fed will print more money.

Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.

there is no fiat deflation

US minimum wage is not going DOWN
its just not going up as fast

products are not getting cheaper. they are just getting expensive more slowly

deflation is your income buys you more produce
we are not going through a phase where our fiat income buys more produce

@philipma1957 below
im not shocked by another "windfuryism". i expect, now that he is proven wrong yet again, he will spout some empty insult that im just making him have mental disorders and confusion

i laugh that he thinks i can cause dementia(via gas lighting) over the internet
if his mental state is so easily altered, it shows his initial mental state is problematic even without the involvement of this forum

i have no issues with people that have mental issues. but to claim victim that someone is causing it is the laughable part.

for years now i have simply asked him to do research on a topic to know the real history, facts and data. and not cry when being proved wrong..

oh and not forgetting the title.. "defation" is not even a word.
did he mean prepare for a new years diet resolution

[philipma1957]

Not in 2023.

The USA Long Term Care industry is a big deal


close to 3.5 trillion in assets.

Unlike any other country USa makes you buy Long Term Care insurance if you want decent care.

Alzheimer and Dementia are big in the USA due to boomers (myself included) being conned into eating high carb diets for 1950 to 1990.

So with small bond interest the LONG TERM CARE industry was dying.

I know a lot about this since my bro-in-law has Dementia and will not get better.

But he has LTC policy. So I checked  them out on various rating companies.

I did this last Dec 2021. and they were rated 45% chance to go bust in 2022

I did further research and found all the companies 14 of them with 3 trillion in assets had bad ratings.

Why? they make bank in the bond market and the bond market sucked in dec 2021

well guess what. these companies rated 40 to 50 % shot to go broke in 2022 gained 500 billion due to bond rates rising.

they are now rated 30 to 40% to go broke in 2023....

My guess is at least 2023 with rates going up then flat. will add 250 to 300 million to these companies. and maybe we see a slump in 2024.

2023 interest up inflation persists.

maybe light at tunnels end in 2024.


be like JJG just DCA!

@ franky1 you must have laughed out loud at this op title. "deflation in 2023 !"

[Moneyprism]

the central bank of course will not allow this to happen, because inflation is better than deflation .. deflation has a worse effect than inflation, where there will be many products whose value decreases,,, layoffs in factories due to lack of demand, etc., it will destroy the economy and printing money is not a solution because this problem will be more complex and have a longer effect

[Wind_FURY]

fiat will never deflate

recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation

instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate

going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation

deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation

Zoomed out to the maximum, it doesn't deflate, BUT there could be cycles of deflation possible, especially if the cabal behind the Federal Reserve over-adjusts with QT.

Percentage Change, Year on Year illustrates that the money supply is dropping. It's currently -0.70%. It's possible that inflation rate will drop quickly too, probably near ZERO PERCENT by June, 2023, and deflation by the end of the year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS#0

I know it's debatable, it's also laughable to discuss "deflation" in the middle of an inflationary period, but I'm the stupid one.

[franky1]

ok quick lesson

M1=coins and notes.. this is going down
M2=coins notes and demand deposits(debit/credit cards) this is small decrease due to M1
       (counting just debit credit cards(electronic payments see a rise)
M3=coins notes demand deposits and savings accounts, money market deposits this is increasing
       (counting just a savings accounts would see a larger rise compared to debit cards)
       (counting just money markets accounts would see an even larger rise compared to savings)

money supply is always increasing. just the form and where it is can become the mystery to some

so ill reveal the secret..
less coins and banknotes but more being put in the savings accounts and money markets

money printing still occurs, people still use credit cards, people still take mortgages there is still more money being created and the supply still increases.. all you proved is less people want to mess around with paper bank note forms of money

[KingsDen]

Ever since I had an elementary idea of inflation and deflation as regards the economy. I had always been scared of inflation and it has been inflation hitting the economy. I have never witnessed any deflation.
But in theory I was told that deflection is worse than inflation.
I so much want to witness deflation because from the definition I believe it's more acceptable than inflation.

They wouldn't print money, they would just drop the interest, which means people who got the printed money last year, that invested it into banks and interest because interest rate went up, will take their money out. Hence, during inflation there was a lot of money in the market, then interest went up, so the market had less money, then interest will go down, so market will have that money again without needing to print anything. That is a good way to arrange everything, we didn't needed all that money all that quickly, so slowly putting it out there would be a smarter way for sure.

You are such an economist or a financial analyst. If your proposal is what really happens why do government keep printing money?

[odunybiz]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

This shouldn't be a surprise for most investors. Most of us are really looking forward for bullish soon (may be 2024 precisely)

[franky1]

here is the way i see the economics of the last year 5 years (2019-2023)

fiat inflates always.. and it did in 2019 even before certain events did during and did after. just differing rates

due to many things(2020-2021), such as people returning to work after covid, no longer subsidised by stimulus cheques and also entering(2022) a new economy of eastern europe war affecting supply chains. the fiat market swung into a new direction.. not deflation but inflation and yes it was already in inflation but a new higher direction of inflation.

businesses knew it would see energy prices and supply of produce prices rise which meant companies would need to stock pile stuff at early 2022 prices to be ready and not pay out more in 2023

to they sold all their shares stocks and investments to be cashflow heavy to stockpile their materials needed for late 2022-23

they are now in a position to just produce and start filling their pockets with sales, to then re-invest in the investments they dropped in early 2022

this will then as a sidenote, slow down the inflation back into the direction it would have gone
    //       2023
   //        2022
 / /         2021
| /          2020
//           2019

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Wait a sec.  I thought the money printing never stopped in the first place.  Are you saying the Fed actually took a breather?

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

Oh, if only I had the spare cash to buy bitcoin like it was 2015!  I don't know if the cause-and-effect relationship you described between the Fed's actions and bitcoin's price action is correct, but we've seen periods where bitcoin is completely stagnant for months and then breaks out like an olympic track runner, usually to the upside.  Right now it looks like bitcoin kinda-sorta wants to break past $17k; I think that regardless of what the Fed does, once people get over the FTX disaster (and the last few debacles like Terra) bitcoin's going to skyrocket.

Time frame:  Who knows?

[franky1]

as for the windfuryism that he thinks there will be an event of a 60x (2015:$333-2017:$20k) in 2023..
he is mistaken by about a 10x (meaning expect a modest 6x max instead, if the right speculative triggers are pulled)

there were 3 events in 2016 and 2017 thats caused the price of 2017 to be 60x higher then 2015
and those 3 events over a 3 year period.. which are not going to happen in 2023

(2015-16)firstly mining transitioned from a 1.2thash(s5) to  14thash(s9)
(2016)then there was the halvening.
(2017)then there was the speculation of the protocol change and late re-valuation from halving costs

none of which similar events are really things to have happened or about to occur in 2023

when you look at the value premium window of underlying bitcoin trade window of $10k-$75k 2021
2022 sees a $15k -$90k potential of trade speculation market window

so unless hashrate becomes extremely alot more then it is now to stimulate people wanting to buy bitcoin above $XYZk
most people wont want to buy above $100k based on current value window

yes we might see a potential speculated amount somewhere in the $15k-$90k zone if the right speculation triggers occur. meaning maybe upto 6x

but no way will we see a 60x of $900k in 2023

[Negotiation]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

Oh, if only I had the spare cash to buy bitcoin like it was 2015!  I don't know if the cause-and-effect relationship you described between the Fed's actions and bitcoin's price action is correct, but we've seen periods where bitcoin is completely stagnant for months and then breaks out like an olympic track runner, usually to the upside.  Right now it looks like bitcoin kinda-sorta wants to break past $17k; I think that regardless of what the Fed does, once people get over the FTX disaster (and the last few debacles like Terra) bitcoin's going to skyrocket.

No one has any idea about the exact timing, especially in the case of Bitcoin but there are a few things that can give you a little guess as to how Bitcoin is going to move. Although that is mostly just a guess. If accurate statistics were always available then all those involved with Bitcoin over the years would never have experienced losses, I mean for trading and holding. If we think in general then it can be seen that when the price of Bitcoin skyrockets, the common holder or people don't have that much Bitcoin. and it's not just you, there are many others who wish they could hoard some bitcoins for a chance like in 2015. But I don't think Bitcoin will ever go down like it did in 2015.

Time frame:  Who knows?

I agree with you, but no one can say anything for sure about timing, because bitcoin can change movement for many reasons. And many times the timing cannot be determined because of these rapid movement changes.

[davis196]

I don't think that there's going to be a deflation in the USA(or global deflation). I expect a slightly lower inflation in 2023, maybe around 10-15%.
There are too many factors, which are pushing the prices up, fuel costs, global supply chain disruptions, the COVID wave in China.
Having higher interest rates in the USA means that many companies might decide to move their business in America. More investments in the industry would mean higher industrial production and more jobs. I don't really think that 2023 would be such a "doom&gloom" year for the USA.
 

[oaz7t]

Everyone wants to be happy in the current economy and the only good way is to have the economy reset to normal sacred line! No deflation and inflation but just a normal line for the economy and every countries growing slowly and steadily. I think things have been pretty rough since past 4 years. Since pandemic the decline started and few countries went for war and sanctions causing it massive after effect on the global economy.

The problem is, we are now having the child play and with the time this won't be good. There is no way people will start accepting the bitcoin just like that. If this situation persist like this, forget about the up surge, people will start selling their deposits for living optimum life!

[Godday]

We hope that this year the bull run will happen again, because in the past year we have all gone through difficult times for the crypto market, and the economic crisis is increasingly felt, for now the Federal Reserve is making big plans so that the current economic downturn can be resolved, although many predict that the bull run will not happen this year but if it is increasingly depressed then a price jump in the value of the crypto will occur immediately so that the deplation will not occur In a very long time, then we have to prepare ourselves so that there are big things that happen later that will not be missed.

[Wind_FURY]

ok quick lesson

M1=coins and notes.. this is going down
M2=coins notes and demand deposits(debit/credit cards) this is small decrease due to M1
       (counting just debit credit cards(electronic payments see a rise)
M3=coins notes demand deposits and savings accounts, money market deposits this is increasing
       (counting just a savings accounts would see a larger rise compared to debit cards)
       (counting just money markets accounts would see an even larger rise compared to savings)

money supply is always increasing. just the form and where it is can become the mystery to some

so ill reveal the secret..
less coins and banknotes but more being put in the savings accounts and money markets

money printing still occurs, people still use credit cards, people still take mortgages there is still more money being created and the supply still increases.. all you proved is less people want to mess around with paper bank note forms of money

I'm merely talking about M2 because it's what's being used as a key economic indicator to forecast inflation. I'm talking about it in terms of their rules, franky1, not yours.

Plus I'm also talking about a cycle of deflation based Year on Year on M2.

as for the windfuryism that he thinks there will be an event of a 60x (2015:$333-2017:$20k) in 2023..

There you are again, trying to disinform and gaslight people into believing your lies. Have I said of 60x event in 2023? IN 2023? Haha. Newbies only need to look at your trust rating to know.

I said in 2023 there will be a period of deflation, which means there will be low demand and maybe NEAR ZERO interest inflation rate. How will the cabal behind the Federal Reserve react? I believe they will over-adjust like what they have done in the past, and do massive QE, which will bring Bitcoin surging like it did during 2015 - 2017, OR probably 2011 - 2013?

[TOM B]

The Federal Reserve is now watching the markets closely, and the continuity of withdrawing liquidity for a long period will accelerate avoiding deflation. It is easy to pump liquidity, but it will make it difficult to reach “healthy” inflation during the current fiscal year.

I am afraid of what is happening in China. The last thing we are waiting to see now is the return of  COVID19 with a good mutation, which means more health restrictions.
And the war that is taking place in Ukraine and the lack of control over it.
The energy crisis and its problems, especially with the European economy.

So we have enough problems to fear deflation

The problem is that almost no one is optimistic about the economic development in 2023. Many people are looking at austerity. Such sentiment will affect many people. The collective consciousness is very bleak. The unemployment rate is too high. Is COVID19 really over? I don’t think so.

[Mauser]

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

They can't print more money as this would increase inflation even further. The only real solution for the FED at the moment is to keep increasing interest rates and try to contain the inflation. Only once the inflation is brought down they can focus on economics growth again. A recession could happen in 2023 but doesn't seem so likely, because when all the prices are rising then so are wages and whole economic output is going to be inflated. Number will be higher but in real terms, the value is not going up. We will probably see a rise in Bitcoin prices again in 2023 but the rise is going to be moderate first in my opinion. People are still scared to invest large amounts of money. At least in my country most investors still hold large sums of cash in their portfolio, even though it's the worst type of asset to hold during high inflation periods. It will probably take until 2024 and the next halving to prices really rally again.

[RealMalatesta]

They can't print more money as this would increase inflation even further. The only real solution for the FED at the moment is to keep increasing interest rates and try to contain the inflation. Only once the inflation is brought down they can focus on economics growth again. A recession could happen in 2023 but doesn't seem so likely, because when all the prices are rising then so are wages and whole economic output is going to be inflated. Number will be higher but in real terms, the value is not going up. We will probably see a rise in Bitcoin prices again in 2023 but the rise is going to be moderate first in my opinion. People are still scared to invest large amounts of money. At least in my country most investors still hold large sums of cash in their portfolio, even though it's the worst type of asset to hold during high inflation periods. It will probably take until 2024 and the next halving to prices really rally again.

They won't, and not to just prevent inflation but they already did so much and that money is not in the market yet. I feel like the best thing about 2023 will be the fact hat everyone and everything is going back to normal.

People are not aware of this just yet, but believe me when I say this, from 2022 1st of January to 31st of December 2023, the best year will be 2023. No pandemic, no "new" wars, maybe even a resolved one hopefully, and no big economic crisis, everything just on the path to be better. That means we should be living a great year, not the best year ever, but the best year in a while, closer to 2019 at the very least, and that should be great.

[uneng]

I think the fed will be forced to raise interest rates on loans. Which could incentivize markets to seek alternative sources of credit and liquidity. In a best and worse case scenario, crypto based sources of credit and liquidity could gain higher demand due to them supplying credit and liquidity without the rising interest rates.

Raising rates could reduce competitive advantages of conventional bank loan markets. Opening the door for crypto to take prominence. Although recent history has shown markets and regulation trends have swung in directions which are far from linear.

They have been raising interest rates since last year, but the impact on crypto industry has been very negative. Theoretically you are right, and the demand for crypto lending services should have increased, as they don't add charge extra interest rates like traditional banks are doing, however, it didn't happen. Some could argue it is because crypto is too volatile, so in every cases bitcoin and altcoins aren't going to be benefited by an increasement on the demand for crypto loans. Probably only stablecoins will, although for bitcoin investors it's insignificant.

[Wind_FURY]

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

They can't print more money as this would increase inflation even further. The only real solution for the FED at the moment is to keep increasing interest rates and try to contain the inflation. Only once the inflation is brought down they can focus on economics growth again. A recession could happen in 2023 but doesn't seem so likely, because when all the prices are rising then so are wages and whole economic output is going to be inflated. Number will be higher but in real terms, the value is not going up. We will probably see a rise in Bitcoin prices again in 2023 but the rise is going to be moderate first in my opinion. People are still scared to invest large amounts of money. At least in my country most investors still hold large sums of cash in their portfolio, even though it's the worst type of asset to hold during high inflation periods. It will probably take until 2024 and the next halving to prices really rally again.

Please get the context of the topic. I'm NOT saying the cabal will do it RIGHT NOW, I'm merely saying that they're response from their overadjustment WILL BE another overadjustment. franky1 is right, there has always been inflation, and in the current cycle, it may have already peaked. But if anyone believes that the inflation numbers we saw last year would be the highest, then it's laughable. We'll probably experience something worse in ten years.

Furthermore, CPI print is lower month on month, and the rate of inflation is also declining year on year. That might be the first signs that a cycle of deflation might be coming during 2023.

[Spisalen]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

A possible deflation can create negative scenarios for Bitcoin as well, because Bitcoin is also in a subset of the economy concept. The idea of thinking of Bitcoin as an asset independent of all external factors seems a bit of a misconception to me. If it is snowing outside, the house does not get warm easily.

[Gyfts]

Doesn't seem likely for inflation to stop in in 2023 for two reason: The central banks has essentially accepted that a recession will happen therefore they haven't tried to ease interest rates to achieve a slow landing. They aggressively hiked interest rates and accept the potential recession as a result. Second -- the state of money printing nearly every country participated in back in 2020 saw the creation of more money than the world has ever seen. This does not solve itself within just a few years.

[jostorres]

Please get the context of the topic. I'm NOT saying the cabal will do it RIGHT NOW, I'm merely saying that they're response from their overadjustment WILL BE another overadjustment. franky1 is right, there has always been inflation, and in the current cycle, it may have already peaked. But if anyone believes that the inflation numbers we saw last year would be the highest, then it's laughable. We'll probably experience something worse in ten years.

Furthermore, CPI print is lower month on month, and the rate of inflation is also declining year on year. That might be the first signs that a cycle of deflation might be coming during 2023.

I do not agree with this, they did not overadjusted the situation, they adjusted just right and it will go back to regular life like we had in 2019. Was it economically awesome? Were we all super wealthy and lived an amazing life?

Of course not, economy was always bad for people like me, I still failed to buy many things, but it wasn't as bad as the last 2 years, and it will get better eventually which I am sure that it will cause a lot of trouble for many people, but then it will get better in the long term as well when the time comes and right now it's that better time. We are going back to 2019 if you ask me, not a great life, but a better one.

[Casdinyard]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

We passed on a bear market for an entire year and the cycle that we believe happens is going to set a bull run. That's what we're set to believe and if the same run just as those years, it's going to be a big bull run again.

But as years have seen that there could be a change which is about to come and just as you've said, the bull run might come earlier than expected.

Anyway, if it goes like that then I'm thankful but if not then that's just fine.

Not so fast my friend. The halving which is a guaranteed bull for bitcoin wouldn't happen until sometime next year. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have a bull run as soon as possible as much as the next guy but insinuating one would happen now, especially with multiple scandals coming in and out of the industry is a little too ambitious if not nigh impossible. The bear market is pretty much far from over and i don't want to be the bearer of bad news but may stick around for a little while, unless something happens sometime around June. Then again bitcoin never failed to surprise me so something may just come around. If so I'd come back to this post and congratulate you.

[Wind_FURY]

Please get the context of the topic. I'm NOT saying the cabal will do it RIGHT NOW, I'm merely saying that they're response from their overadjustment WILL BE another overadjustment. franky1 is right, there has always been inflation, and in the current cycle, it may have already peaked. But if anyone believes that the inflation numbers we saw last year would be the highest, then it's laughable. We'll probably experience something worse in ten years.

Furthermore, CPI print is lower month on month, and the rate of inflation is also declining year on year. That might be the first signs that a cycle of deflation might be coming during 2023.

I do not agree with this, they did not overadjusted the situation, they adjusted just right and it will go back to regular life like we had in 2019. Was it economically awesome? Were we all super wealthy and lived an amazing life?

How would we plebs know? We wouldn't until recession comes and demand goes down, and if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. But wait until the end of 2023.

Of course not, economy was always bad for people like me, I still failed to buy many things, but it wasn't as bad as the last 2 years, and it will get better eventually which I am sure that it will cause a lot of trouble for many people, but then it will get better in the long term as well when the time comes and right now it's that better time. We are going back to 2019 if you ask me, not a great life, but a better one.

I don't know what you mean when you post about "2019", BUT we have seen a massive overadjustment by Central Banks during 2020 when the COVID-19 Pandemic/Lockdowns happened all around the world. The Central Banks pumped so much money into the system which caused high inflation. They said it was transitory, but we knew it wasn't.

[jostorres]

How would we plebs know? We wouldn't until recession comes and demand goes down, and if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. But wait until the end of 2023.

I "know" (and yeah I don't, I agree we have to wait) in the sense that overadjustment would have shown itself already, that's not something that gradually happens, if it's gradually going down, then we could stop that too and make it stay right where it suppose to. Did inflation go up slowly? No, when it happened it was suddenly a ton of issues right as soon as they printed it, and that means deflation would be similar as well in that sense.

I don't know what you mean when you post about "2019", BUT we have seen a massive overadjustment by Central Banks during 2020 when the COVID-19 Pandemic/Lockdowns happened all around the world. The Central Banks pumped so much money into the system which caused high inflation. They said it was transitory, but we knew it wasn't.

The idea about 2019 was that, 2023 will be similar to 2019 in the economical sense, do you agree that 2020 and 2021 and 2022 was a bad year? Do you agree that 2019 was better than all those years and yet not so great like we were buying houses like we bought candy? Well, that's where we will go back to. Better than 2020-2022 period but not too great.

[savetheFORUM]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

We passed on a bear market for an entire year and the cycle that we believe happens is going to set a bull run. That's what we're set to believe and if the same run just as those years, it's going to be a big bull run again.

But as years have seen that there could be a change which is about to come and just as you've said, the bull run might come earlier than expected.

Anyway, if it goes like that then I'm thankful but if not then that's just fine.

Not so fast my friend. The halving which is a guaranteed bull for bitcoin wouldn't happen until sometime next year. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have a bull run as soon as possible as much as the next guy but insinuating one would happen now, especially with multiple scandals coming in and out of the industry is a little too ambitious if not nigh impossible. The bear market is pretty much far from over and i don't want to be the bearer of bad news but may stick around for a little while, unless something happens sometime around June. Then again bitcoin never failed to surprise me so something may just come around. If so I'd come back to this post and congratulate you.

I think the bull run can come at any time and doesn't only limited to the halving event. Halving sure have some positive effects to Bitcoin (it reduces its supply, making it more scarce) but I don't think it can guarantee a bull run. It's just people are only too optimistic about it leading for them to buy more and Hodl which can be the main cause of the pump.

I haven't seen any negative news lately but just positive news like the one did there by El Salvador in the Miss Universe event. Now the world sees Bitcoin more, they will now be confident about it. Who knows, what if this can trigger an early bull run? Some people are just itchy as we know last year was full of stress and losses.

[Johnyz]

Doesn't seem likely for inflation to stop in in 2023 for two reason: The central banks has essentially accepted that a recession will happen therefore they haven't tried to ease interest rates to achieve a slow landing. They aggressively hiked interest rates and accept the potential recession as a result. Second -- the state of money printing nearly every country participated in back in 2020 saw the creation of more money than the world has ever seen. This does not solve itself within just a few years.

Recession is cyclical, and many government anticipate this already and yeah their solution is to increase the interest rates so people will not borrow that much and spend that much. Probably, the economy of many countries are already on a recovery phase as well and avoided a huge impact of a possible recession. With Bitcoin, this might be the safe have and probably we might see some good volume. The pump with Bitcoin recently is a good start, we might see more of this in the first quarter.

[Wind_FURY]

How would we plebs know? We wouldn't until recession comes and demand goes down, and if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. But wait until the end of 2023.

I "know" (and yeah I don't, I agree we have to wait) in the sense that overadjustment would have shown itself already, that's not something that gradually happens, if it's gradually going down, then we could stop that too and make it stay right where it suppose to. Did inflation go up slowly? No, when it happened it was suddenly a ton of issues right as soon as they printed it, and that means deflation would be similar as well in that sense.

Do you disagree to the fact that inflation is a, and has always been, a "monetary phenomenon"? I'm truly confused what your viewpoint is, if you can post it with a clearer context, then maybe I could deliver my own viewpoint.

Plus I'm merely talking in a historical sense. The cabal behind the Federal Reserve/other central banks have been incompetent, their policies have been causing the economic boom, bust cycles.

I don't know what you mean when you post about "2019", BUT we have seen a massive overadjustment by Central Banks during 2020 when the COVID-19 Pandemic/Lockdowns happened all around the world. The Central Banks pumped so much money into the system which caused high inflation. They said it was transitory, but we knew it wasn't.

The idea about 2019 was that, 2023 will be similar to 2019 in the economical sense, do you agree that 2020 and 2021 and 2022 was a bad year?

What is the "economical sense"? I don't understand.

Do you agree that 2019 was better than all those years and yet not so great like we were buying houses like we bought candy? Well, that's where we will go back to. Better than 2020-2022 period but not too great.

For your information QE started probably during 2008 which gave the system so much liquidity that credit was easy to make people buy houses "like candy", with some minor QT in between, until during the fourth quarter of 2021 when the Federal Reserve announced that they would do massive QT because inflation wasn't actually transitory.

It wasn't because people were rich that made them buy house like candy, it was because it was easy to get a mortgage because liquidity was high. Ask those people who bought houses, "like candy", how they're mortgages are today.

[franky1]

as for the windfuryism that he thinks there will be an event of a 60x (2015:$333-2017:$20k) in 2023..

There you are again, trying to disinform and gaslight people into believing your lies. Have I said of 60x event in 2023? IN 2023? Haha. Newbies only need to look at your trust rating to know.

I said in 2023 there will be a period of deflation, which means there will be low demand and maybe NEAR ZERO interest inflation rate. How will the cabal behind the Federal Reserve react? I believe they will over-adjust like what they have done in the past, and do massive QE, which will bring Bitcoin surging like it did during 2015 - 2017, OR probably 2011 - 2013?

oh you love to cry and shout gaslight even without you even using the buzzword in correct context, especially when its you that is failing to remember your own words or even do the maths of the stuff you try to imply. or even basic research on your implications..
how abut cry less. buzzword less and spend the time doing some research, calculations, and work things out for yourself

anyways
you said

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

so i done the math on which you implied your expected "big surge" to be
so i said what that "big surge" was(by doing the research and math for you):
(333->20k) because thats what you said to expect this year to be like('like it was 2015-2017')
its called maths & research.
a surge from 333->20k in 2015-2017= 60x
so yes you said expect a big surge like 2015-17
so yes you implied a surge like the 60x surge of your specified date


and now you are trying to suggest that there would be a 2011-13 style surge
(facepalm)
a $0.30 -> $1200 = 4000x
or $30 -> $1200 = 40x
a $3 -> $1200 = 400x
(depending on what part of 2011 you want to include)

seriously you are trying to play the fool but then double down and double down and double down on your absent mindedness to go even further into fantasy land then pretend you never said what you said because you didnt include the simple maths you imply, even though you still made the implication.

now a lesson for you, yet again
what you are not realising is that the "surges" per cycle get less and less volatile.. not more

end of story

[slapper]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

It's tricky. I'm not an economist either, but the Fed's decisions can affect the economy. If deflation occurs and conditions worsen, they may print more money. However, when money loses value, people will seek alternatives. Crypto helps. Bitcoin, in particular, thrives during recessions. It protects money.

If deflation occurs and the Fed prints more money, Bitcoin's value may rise significantly. Though unlikely, it's worth considering. If it happens, investors and wealth protectors may benefit. The Fed and government don't influence Bitcoin's price. It's decentralised, so nobody can print more. That's its strength. It's inflation-proof. As more people see Bitcoin's benefits, I think it'll become as strong as the present monetary system, if not greater

[Wind_FURY]

as for the windfuryism that he thinks there will be an event of a 60x (2015:$333-2017:$20k) in 2023..

There you are again, trying to disinform and gaslight people into believing your lies. Have I said of 60x event in 2023? IN 2023? Haha. Newbies only need to look at your trust rating to know.

I said in 2023 there will be a period of deflation, which means there will be low demand and maybe NEAR ZERO interest inflation rate. How will the cabal behind the Federal Reserve react? I believe they will over-adjust like what they have done in the past, and do massive QE, which will bring Bitcoin surging like it did during 2015 - 2017, OR probably 2011 - 2013?

oh you love to cry and shout gaslight even without you even using the buzzword in correct context, especially when its you that is failing to remember your own words or even do the maths of the stuff you try to imply. or even basic research on your implications..
how abut cry less. buzzword less and spend the time doing some research, calculations, and work things out for yourself

anyways
you said

 

There's nothing that you can say or tell me that would remove that negative trust-rating in your profile. You brought this to yourself because you truly gaslighting people, and spread disinformation, then when it doesn't work, you start name-calling and tell lies about the person and put words in their mouths. That's franky 101. Haha.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

so i done the math on which you implied your expected "big surge" to be
so i said what that "big surge" was(by doing the research and math for you):
(333->20k) because thats what you said to expect this year to be like('like it was 2015-2017')
its called maths & research.
a surge from 333->20k in 2015-2017= 60x
so yes you said expect a big surge like 2015-17
so yes you implied a surge like the 60x surge of your specified date


and now you are trying to suggest that there would be a 2011-13 style surge
(facepalm)
a $0.30 -> $1200 = 4000x
or $30 -> $1200 = 40x
a $3 -> $1200 = 400x
(depending on what part of 2011 you want to include)

seriously you are trying to play the fool but then double down and double down and double down on your absent mindedness to go even further into fantasy land then pretend you never said what you said because you didnt include the simple maths you imply, even though you still made the implication.

 

franky 101.

now a lesson for you, yet again
what you are not realising is that the "surges" per cycle get less and less volatile.. not more

end of story

What you are not realising is that after the tightening and a cycle of deflation, GIGANTIC QE and expansion will be coming, another overadjustment, making everything surge like it was 2015 - 2017, or maybe 2011 - 2013?

Back on topic, https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-january-13/

That's probably showing that deflation is starting, no?

[franky1]

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales nor understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween the window frame

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and let the markets teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

you mention the surges of 2011-13-15-17    which range from 10x-100x
im going to say a window of 2x-10x at most

see ya next year

[Wind_FURY]

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales not understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

Don't post as if you truly know EVERYTHING behind EVERYTHING. Because, as many posters have already discovered, you have always lied especially about technical discussions about Bitcoin, you have disinformed and gaslighted newbies during the Scaling Debate, everyone can see the proof in your trust-rating.

I know that what I said is debatable, but I'm merely arguing for a deflationary event followed by massive QE and a massive inflationary event when Money Printer goes BRRRRR. Bitcoin will surge, and surge like it was 2015 - 2017. If I'm wrong by 2025 - 2027 then remind me, if I'm right then ignore me.

[franky1]

topic title "in 2023"
topic post content "2023"

If I'm wrong by 2025 - 2027 then remind me, if I'm right then ignore me.

"in 2023" yet now you want to sneak out of your own timescales

also.. funny thing is all your cries for last couple years about how features activated.. seems this month you finally seen the light. and have been in a topic surprisingly saying along with a couple of your chums the exact process i was describing to you for years.

but hey. seems it took you years of crying to realise it

heck even your defenders/girlfriends blackhat & doomad are both admitting that their favoured LN is not the scaling solution and admits LN cant cope with all bitcoin utility offramps they were promoting..
and now even saying how the 2017 contentious hardfork was not about scaling (another broken promise) and all that crap.. seems they and you are quick to suddenly agree with my versions of events after all
so welcome to 2023 a fresh start

so.. like i just said in previous post
ill let time itself teach you a lesson. seems its the only way you will learn

oh
and i dont even pretend or try to know everything about everything.. thats what research is for .. TO LEARN
try it

[KingsDen]

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales not understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

Don't post as if you truly know EVERYTHING behind EVERYTHING. Because, as many posters have already discovered, you have always lied especially about technical discussions about Bitcoin,

I haven't actually caught franky1 lying, what he does is to differ from many people's opinion which seems to be some general opinions. So, not joining the believe of the crowd doesn't make him a liar. And many as possible he gives detailed analysis to support his claim.

About bitcoin surge or dip, he had always maintained that for this circle, the bitcoin window is opened between $15k to $75. With due diligence, you can see how bitcoin made a u turn after testing 15k and disappointed many that waited for $10k.
I am not saying franky is always right, but give the dude some respect, he is unique and knowledgeable.

[franky1]

i am definitely unique

if i was to be another crowd hugger just going with the flow of the social narrative, then thats just spam of no discussion, just ass-kissery

i do offer differing opinions when it matters most, especially when some people get stuck in some social echo chamber of details they didnt learn via researched sources, but just what some other social influencer said

EG instead of researching my opinions. for years windy has taken on the cause of calling me a liar because someone else called me a liar. and so he just circle chased his own tail into perpetual insanity of finger pointing

heres one prime example
gmax's first gripe with me was about "anyonecanspend" opcode being abused to function as the tx format trojan where he and co-devs were ademant that segwit can be soft and people can easily just start making segwit transactions with the anyonecanspend opcode without needing some hard activation of upgrading the nodes and all, nor nodes being ready to service said upgrade should it activate

however it turns out with all his cries and him staying by his beleifs until the last minute, that soft and easy to use segwit adoption he thought was true to him.. wasnt..
reality showed that it ended up needing a contentious hard activation, where unupgraded nodes would be given a stripped down version of blocks and not relayed on purpose zero-confirm segwit tx's..
and even after activation, a delay of many months until core deemed it safe to then release the wallet functionality to then make segwit transactions.. (they wanted to ensure the unupgraded nodes had enough upgraded nodes to filter the unupgraded nodes to the edges of the network. as end points. not midpoint peers)
 so they end up taking my point.. even though it must have felt like to them they were getting their head beaten to the wall before they realised it

its not about knowing everything.
its about actually giving a crap to learn things outside some scope certain people want to pigeon hole people
its about knowing bitcoin is not some self creating AI code. its made by devs
its about caring about bitcoin enough to want to learn and also review and critique those that have the power to change or add bugs into the protocol
its about not kissing ass because there are already too many sleep ass kissers, we dont need more of them
case-in-point
windy thinks bitcoins price is reflective of the FIAT inflation.. (facepalm)
no bitcoins market price is not about how much large money is thrown at a market

i can easily do some whale trades of large money to keep the price at the same price.. oh wait someone else is doing that most weeks (note the resistance wall of $17k in december the 21.5k wall early jan and the $23k wall those week)

bitcoins market is not dependant on all the 19m coins of circulation either

yes as a simplification bitcoin is deflationary meaning looking at the 4 year view bitcoin moves up in price and value compared to previous. as oppose to fiats inflation where every few years you get to buy LESS bread(down value) for same amount of fiat

but to suggest x=y as a exact mirror of the minutia of daily price. . nope. theres no correlation

2022 seen alot more institutional investors doing futures option on bitcoin which caused the "step down" correction pattern rather than a free market of speculation

2023 will see some stepping up but not for reasons windy heard from some other social influencer

[Wind_FURY]

topic title "in 2023"
topic post content "2023"

Get the context of what's being discussed in the topic, and stop being franky-101. You probably didn't read it with your obvious short-attention-span.

If I'm wrong by 2025 - 2027 then remind me, if I'm right then ignore me.

"in 2023" yet now you want to sneak out of your own timescales

also.. funny thing is all your cries for last couple years about how features activated.. seems this month you finally seen the light. and have been in a topic surprisingly saying along with a couple of your chums the exact process i was describing to you for years.

but hey. seems it took you years of crying to realise it

No one is crying, franky-101, except you and your Flat-Earther friends from the Big Block World SINCE 2017. Hahaha.

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales not understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

Don't post as if you truly know EVERYTHING behind EVERYTHING. Because, as many posters have already discovered, you have always lied especially about technical discussions about Bitcoin,

I haven't actually caught franky1 lying, what he does is to differ from many people's opinion which seems to be some general opinions. So, not joining the believe of the crowd doesn't make him a liar. And many as possible he gives detailed analysis to support his claim.

About bitcoin surge or dip, he had always maintained that for this circle, the bitcoin window is opened between $15k to $75. With due diligence, you can see how bitcoin made a u turn after testing 15k and disappointed many that waited for $10k.
I am not saying franky is always right, but give the dude some respect, he is unique and knowledgeable.

OK, we either learn the easy way, or the hard way, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5192937.0

I learned the hard way.

Let's go back on-topic, or I start reporting to the mods.

[franky1]

yet again. revealing more about yourself then you should

yep it was you and doomad in autumn 2019 that cried to mods that your flawed opinions were being critiqued. and then you ever since been tail chasing in circles using the result of your cries as if they are proof that you are right. when all it really is proof of, is that you can cry the loudest and get mommy and daddy mod to react

get away from the social drama of tail chasing your own confirmation biases until you make yourself insane.
learn something new to break your infinity loop

its funny how you quote a mod who was getting frustrated that you lot were crying to him soo much he had to act. where by it was your social clubs cries that he was referring to

thus no facts. just a social drama cycle of your own making

try to stick to real data, not social quotes of your own causality


now to get on topic and explain why i just said all that. you keep failing to know causality of things, you fail to do research, plus when you mention 2023 huge surge.. expect someone to critique your opinion of a huge surge in 2023

if you just want people to agree with you. then record your voice. and play it back to yourself
this is a discussion forum. expect other opinions that differ than your own

stop trying to censor away individuality until all you have left is your echo chamber club of ass kissers


final lesson of the day
if bitcoin value is say $16k in january. and market PRICE(dont confuse the two) is not $17k but instead say $speculating at $22k-$50k

bitcoin is not showing "deflationary" actions. its speculating at a premium away from store of value. thus is having a bubble(inflation) which when it corrects back down to value loses people a % of their wealth rather then protecting it if it stayed at $~17k for now

yep its better to buy 2x btc at $17k each rather than 1btc at $34k
if you are looking for price rises. your not looking to see btc deflation in action. you are looking to see an exit to get fiat. which again is a sign you dint understand the economics of bitcoin and benefits of bitcoin. and you just want to see yourself with fiat riches

..
looking for one off ATH "surges" has nothing to do with bitcoins deflation. what you are looking for is temporary inflation bubbles that correct

[Wind_FURY]

--Snip--

OK, franky-101. You have already made your point. Please stop derailing the topic, and open your own and go start being a drama-queen there. I'm merely trying to make an argument that because of the tightening/QT, it might cause a delationary cycle that could start in 2023.

Plus if the deflationary cycle causes a recession by all definitions, in history, the cabal behind the Federal Reserve has always reacted exceedingly. Based on that, there might be massive QE/BRRRRR-Printing like 2008, and what did that bring to the market? Surges to ATH after ATH, a super cycle.



Quote me if I'm wrong, ignore if I'm right.

[Sayeds56]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I think FED will continue increasing interest rates to stabilize prices of commodities and energy, however, it won't lead to Deflation in 2023. Deflation, or sustained decline in prices is never good good for the economy, as it can result in decreased spending & investment, which can lead to decline in economic growth and causes unemployment. If deflation were to occur, FED can use monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing to stimulate economy.

[TalkativeCoin]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I think FED will continue increasing interest rates to stabilize prices of commodities and energy, however, it won't lead to Deflation in 2023. Deflation, or sustained decline in prices is never good good for the economy, as it can result in decreased spending & investment, which can lead to decline in economic growth and causes unemployment. If deflation were to occur, FED can use monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing to stimulate economy.

+1

In best case scenario we could see a glimpse of deflation at the end of 2023.

[franky1]

so now your "defation" is not about bitcoin.. but about a fiat "defation"

ok lets handle this new swerve to your topic you instigated

after all inflations there is always recession.. its fiats polar opposite.
they dont call it deflation they just call it the correction of inflation where there is still inflation but just at lower %
they hope to get back to 2%

for a fiat DEFLATION there would need to be true money being taken away. a minus interest.
this will be where all bank accounts instead of earning a small interest, start charging people for using banks. and where people have to hand in their $100 bank note and only get out $98 for a 2% deflation

the effect of such an event is that people start allowing more bread to be bought with less dollar needed.

but that is not what is going to happen

they just want to recess(take a break) from printing 11% more paper. and bring it down to a 2% print
i cant see a minus money clawback and destruction event happening

yes recession may feel like people have less money. but thats because there is still more then 2% being printed. but normal people are not the receivers of it. it ends up in the back pockets of institutions

[Sayeds56]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I think FED will continue increasing interest rates to stabilize prices of commodities and energy, however, it won't lead to Deflation in 2023. Deflation, or sustained decline in prices is never good good for the economy, as it can result in decreased spending & investment, which can lead to decline in economic growth and causes unemployment. If deflation were to occur, FED can use monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing to stimulate economy.

+1

In best case scenario we could see a glimpse of deflation at the end of 2023.

It is difficult to predict anything with certainty , however It is possible that deflation may occur at the end of 2023 as inflation is cooling since June-22, but it will depend on variety of economic factors, such as interest rates and GDP & energy prices. I think FED may reverse its policy of money tightening , if there is a concern of deflation in economy. Governments always try their level best to avoid deflation in economy, as deflation is always worse than inflation, because it reduces economic activity and causes unemployment.

[DooMAD]

blackhat & doomad are both admitting that their favoured LN is not the scaling solution and admits LN cant cope with all bitcoin utility offramps they were promoting..
and now even saying how the 2017 contentious hardfork was not about scaling (another broken promise) and all that crap.. seems they and you are quick to suddenly agree with my versions of events after all
so welcome to 2023 a fresh start

Lies and horseshit.  LN is a viable contribution to assist with scaling for smaller sums.  It is not in-and-of-itself a "solution" and was not designed to handle large payments.

Now, either you provide a direct quote of me stating contrary to my words in this post, or you concede to being a liar and a cunt.  I'll wait.

[Wind_FURY]

so now your "defation" is not about bitcoin.. but about a fiat "defation"

You came in the topic, and tried to derail it, without understanding what it is truly all about? I'm disappointed franky. I thought you were smart. Read OP!

ok lets handle this new swerve to your topic you instigated

You then try to gaslight everyone into believing that the topic was swerved into something else. Newbies, did you see that? That's = franky-101.

[franky1]

@windfury
you were the one talking about
"defation in 2023"
"Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017"

my responses where about those and responded by correcting the details of your hyper expectations.. (bringing you down to a more reasonable reality of expectations)
you seem to have acknowledged not to expect bitcoin surges to the expectations you suggested in first post(well done), .. but you done so, by you deviating the narrative to be about fiat and no longer about bitcoin surge expectation

i did not derail or swerve the topic. i just noticed your swerves to avoid saying "ok logic looks like frankys expectations seem more reasonable"

so i observed the swerves and responded accordingly
dont blame me for being frank

@doomad
everyone can read you post history of the last 6 years
every "scaling bitcoin" topic you jump in saying bitcoin should not change because [insert LN advert] as the solution to scaling

many examples of it . your post history show ample examples..
but thanks for changing your narrative now(took you years, but you got there finally) to be less snake oil overhyped over promise than before. something i have been telling you for those years.

its taken you time to learn to not over commit on the empty promise
but dont back peddle now and go back to old salespitch scripts

[DooMAD]

LN is a viable contribution to assist with scaling for smaller sums.  It is not in-and-of-itself a "solution" and was not designed to handle large payments.

Now, either you provide a direct quote of me stating contrary to my words in this post, or you concede to being a liar and a cunt.  I'll wait.

@doomad
everyone can read you post history of the last 6 years
every "scaling bitcoin" topic you jump in saying bitcoin should not change because [insert LN advert] as the solution to scaling

many examples of it . your post history show ample examples..
but thanks for changing your narrative now(took you years, but you got there finally) to be less snake oil overhyped over promise than before. something i have been telling you for those years.

its taken you time to learn to not over commit on the empty promise
but dont back peddle now and go back to old salespitch scripts

Note that franky1 has not provided a direct quote to prove his assertions.  He is not able to provide one because I have never said what he claims.  He does a good impression of Donald Trump with the way he throws false accusations around and generally sounding like a total dumbfuck while he does it.  I don't go around telling people to trade sums over $1000 over LN.  I don't hold the view that LN is the "only" solution for scaling.  But he continues to spread disinformation about me, because franky1 is a compulsive and unrelenting liar.

[Wind_FURY]

@windfury
you were the one talking about
"defation in 2023"
"Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017"

I believe you didn't get the context, franky. Read OP. The point of the topic is the cabal of the Federal Reserve's tendency to over-adjust, which causes the boom-bust cycles in the economy.

I posted, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg61609753#msg61609753

A Deflation in 2023, IF it DOES happen, what will the cabal of the Federal Reserve do based on what they have always done during the past recessionary periods? They always did QE/BRRRRR-Money-Printing which causes everything to surge and start another super cycle of bullishness.

[BenCodie]

Expect the unexpected....Too many people who can't even spell "deflation" are calling for a boom with bitcoin this year in 2023. I originally expected another drop in comparison to a year of increase, and the more I read the more I see it happening. As franky1 said, who I have never once disliked a post to date, companies are reaping bond market gains when they should be going bust. This is not natural, and you can only go against nature for so long before it worsens what should have happened in the first place....and that, when the time comes, is good for bitcoin. 2024 is only making more and more sense. Retail investors get hyped and rekt in 2023 with a prolonged pullback, 2024 sets the scene for another explosive and long-term rally. Similar to what we saw in the 900 day bear of 17/18-19/20 toward the two year bull of 20-21 bull.....
...
but who are any of us to say for sure

[franky1]

@windfury
you were trying to infer that FED actions were going to cause a BITCOIN SURGE
i first responded to correct your notions of how the fiat economy works. and in later posts  that not only will there not be a bitcoin surge to the extents you imagine. but  how FED actions doent imply/cause bitcoin surge reactions

i explained what does cause bitcoin surges

you then deviated to say none of your topic was about bitcoin economy but only fed fiat economy. which i then quoted your "bitcoin surge like its 2015-7" to remind you that you stated it was about bitcoin surging
.. as for doomads social drama..
anyone can read his post history. including himself
that is my reference to his suggestions that LN is a bitcoin scaling solution
look at his post history. there are too many to count examples

the many many many many posts where he infers there are many scaling solutions but the devs are currently only working on LN as the main one that promises scaling right now and everyone needs to be patient if they want other options. where he pretend "only franky wants other option" (yet many topics on this forum show many many people discussing bitcoin scaling

its all researchable.

[DooMAD]

many many many

there are many scaling solutions but the devs are currently only working on LN as the main one that promises scaling right now and everyone needs to be patient if they want other options. where he pretend "only franky wants other option" (yet many topics on this forum show many many people discussing bitcoin scaling

The only "scaling" you care about is "dOuBlE fAsTeR hUrR dUrR" (which isn't actually considered scaling by anyone with a brain) and it should be beyond evident by now that we're not doing that at this stage.  It's not incorrect for me to tell you to be patient and stop crying like a baby.  My stance on this and LN has not changed, so you are still a liar and a cunt when you spread misinformation about me.  

i am definitely unique

Serial killers and psychopaths often make similar boasts.

[Wind_FURY]

@windfury
you were trying to infer that FED actions were going to cause a BITCOIN SURGE
i first responded to correct your notions of how the fiat economy works. and in later posts  that not only will there not be a bitcoin surge to the extents you imagine. but  how FED actions doent imply/cause bitcoin surge reactions

i explained what does cause bitcoin surges

you then deviated to say none of your topic was about bitcoin economy but only fed fiat economy. which i then quoted your "bitcoin surge like its 2015-7" to remind you that you stated it was about bitcoin surging

Is Bitcoin in an open market or not? Because the presumption is, although debatable, the Federal Reserve, and other other Central Banks, actions, ARE going to cause the Economy and almost EVERY TRADED ASSET in most open markets to surge or crash. It's a simple monetary phenomenon. If they print more money in circulation, it causes more demand = prices go up, inflation goes up. If they tighten and take money out of circulation, it lessens demand = prices go down, a deflationary cycle will come. I will admit again, that a 2015 - 2017 surge, it's debatable, but if the presumption that the Federal Reserve will over-adjust AGAIN on monetary expansion is right, then it's very possible.

[Wong Gendheng]

The threat of a recession of the global economy makes us have to be vigilant, not too easy to waste money for useless things such as parties, culinary, tourism and so on, it's better to immediately prepare with investment, no problem even though the value we think is lost, and cryptocurrencies are worth us Make a portion of investment because of a large profit potential.

[el kaka22]

I think surge regarding the price of bitcoin is something that is not "just" based on world economy. I mean sure it is impacted, there is no denying that and when the economy is terrible the price goes up because if fiat is terrible then it should be good for bitcoin.

But at the same time, we should not put the price of bitcoin depending just on that, there are many other things that it gets affected by, and it could be one of those that makes it. Like some great news of some big nation making it legal tender could make the price go up suddenly, even when economy hasn't changed, as you can see the world economy is the same, but that good news could make it higher. That type of things matter.

[Wind_FURY]

I think surge regarding the price of bitcoin is something that is not "just" based on world economy. I mean sure it is impacted, there is no denying that and when the economy is terrible the price goes up because if fiat is terrible then it should be good for bitcoin.

But at the same time, we should not put the price of bitcoin depending just on that, there are many other things that it gets affected by, and it could be one of those that makes it. Like some great news of some big nation making it legal tender could make the price go up suddenly, even when economy hasn't changed, as you can see the world economy is the same, but that good news could make it higher. That type of things matter.

You didn't get the whole point, or didn't get the context. We're not talking about the "World Economy", we are talking about the Central Banks all around the world, and their financial policies. Because it's a fact that for Central Banks to control inflation, they have to reduce the money in circulation and tighten liquidity. Its effect will be lower demand, causing a deflationary cycle, which I said MIGHT happen this year. BUT Jerome Powell looks that he's going to chamge his mind from what he previously said in Jackson Hall. I thought he was going to be "a Volker". I might be wrong. He might pivot earlier than expected, and there might not be a deflationary cycle.

[Joshapat]

Many think that in 2023 there will be deflation, if this is true, of course it is a better thing than inflation which is very difficult, in my country deflation is very rare, since I was in high school and knew economics lessons and saw the economic history in my country then only deflation occurred several times in agricultural products, apart from agricultural products, this has never happened.

[Sayeds56]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

Deflation is always worse than inflation. Deflation means sustained decrease in prices of goods and services, can have several negative consequences on economy such as , decreased spending, reduced investment in new projects and hiring. This ultimately results in increase in unemployment which is not only bad for economy but also impacts vote bank of ruling party.

It is expected, that during deflation the both stocks and crypto markets may perform poorly.
I don't think FED will allow deflation to occur in USA, they will start printing money as soon as they detect some signs of deflation.

[Wind_FURY]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

Deflation is always worse than inflation. Deflation means sustained decrease in prices of goods and services, can have several negative consequences on economy such as , decreased spending, reduced investment in new projects and hiring. This ultimately results in increase in unemployment which is not only bad for economy but also impacts vote bank of ruling party.

But aggressive QT/tightening is what the cabal behind the Federal Reserve must do to fight and control inflation, or else, the U.S. Dollar will be under the risk of hyperinflation.

The Federal Reserve's mandate is price stability, they have to have inflation under control.

It is expected, that during deflation the both stocks and crypto markets may perform poorly.
I don't think FED will allow deflation to occur in USA, they will start printing money as soon as they detect some signs of deflation.

I believe BRRR-Money-Printing will start as soon as something breaks. That's when Bitcoin WILL start to surge like it was during 2015 - 2017, because we already know that there's high probability that they will over-adjust in QE/expansion.

Although, Jerome Powell is indicating that the Fed might stop tightening, and pivot earlier than planned.

[Wind_FURY]

Bump. CPI is 3% for the month of June, the lowest inflation since March, 2021.

Plus a new narrative if we can call it that - Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, says that because Federal Reserve rate hikes take 12 to 18 months before its real effects could be seen, he theorizes that a recession is a more probable result than a soft landing.

I actually thought we would see reinflation happen for June after Jerome Powell paused for that month. Perhaps now we might see deflation happen earlier than expected if Slok is right?

[Cookdata]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

This is subjective to individual country and I don't think my country is even ready for this discussion as most of the tightening policy is killing the mass literally, the increment of tax has also been a big burden to everyone and yet inflation has been a big discussion in the country which has affected every commodity you can found in the country, the services are not left out,  deflation is still far from here but perhaps the new government will find a way to make it work this time around but wait for a second, are you using same US that people are screaming on every day. 

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

Then was late 2020 and 2021 price surge a deceptive measure of Bitcoin price run, 2015/17 is run is entirely different from 20/21 and we expect a soon surge in 2023, I beg to differ though but perhaps you are using halving effect in play otherwise even if the SEC go BRRR, the market makers will do what they like in the end, they have always been the benefactors of the surge.

[Franctoshi]

Fed printing of Money brought about two things, 1. price inflation, which is an increase in the price of goods and commodities, and 2. money inflation, which is printing 20% more in circulation just in one year. If at all we are close to a point where we are about to experience deflation, where FED may think of starting a quantitative easing QE, I don't see that of price inflation get solved any time soon.
Here in my country, the price of goods and services is skyrocketing and there's no sign of when it's going to be over.

[letteredhub]

in my country, the price of goods and services is skyrocketing and there's no sign of when it's going to be over.

It's same experience in almost every countries of the world there has been a constant increase in prices of goods and services mostly foodstuffs. And this inflation is more worsen in countries that are consumption-based- countries as they have to import more of whatever they need thereby spending 2x higher on commodities than what a person in a  production/industrial country would. The worse part about this whole inflation crisis is that no one knows when it's going to end, that's if it will finally end.  

[AmoreJaz]

in my country, the price of goods and services is skyrocketing and there's no sign of when it's going to be over.

It's same experience in almost every countries of the world there has been a constant increase in prices of goods and services mostly foodstuffs. And this inflation is more worsen in countries that are consumption-based- countries as they have to import more of whatever they need thereby spending 2x higher on commodities than what a person in a  production/industrial country would. The worse part about this whole inflation crisis is that no one knows when it's going to end, that's if it will finally end.  

if you look at that kind of scenario, you will be overwhelmed by the situation. so not to panic or get the feeling of anxiety, just think of what you can do to ease the burden of this situation. find ways on how to save from your everyday expenses. just an example, if you think solar panels can help you in lowering down the cost of your electricity bill, then start thinking of investing on this. it may incur you bigger expenses at the start but later on, you will reap the rewards of having solar panels installed on your roof. don't buy unnecessary things that will just pile up in your storage area. in short, why not start living frugally?

[awik p]

in my country, the price of goods and services is skyrocketing and there's no sign of when it's going to be over.

It's same experience in almost every countries of the world there has been a constant increase in prices of goods and services mostly foodstuffs. And this inflation is more worsen in countries that are consumption-based- countries as they have to import more of whatever they need thereby spending 2x higher on commodities than what a person in a  production/industrial country would. The worse part about this whole inflation crisis is that no one knows when it's going to end, that's if it will finally end.  

I as an employee really feel it, where the price of goods rises so I have to be good at managing finances, therefore for now I'm looking for additional work to cover the daily economic shortfalls, besides that I also have to think about investing that is not affected by inflation. as the head of the family bears the burden for the welfare of family members despite the various obstacles currently being experienced, I don't think this will end if the government continues to maintain fiat

[19Nov16]

The threat of world economic recession makes us be vigilant, many countries report slow economic inflation and growth so that it can make us poor, the easy step we have to take from now is trying to find other sources of opinion, if we work 5 days per week then we can Use the remaining 2 days to get additional income.

[Wind_FURY]

To all those people in the topic who mentioned that inflation is still high in their particular countries/regions, my reply for that I would say wait for two things.

- Aggressive rate hikes that would bring forth Deflation or a Recession

OR

- Aggressive price increases which would bring forth Stagflation, then rate hikes, then a Deflation + Recession AKA Depression

OR

The Cabal responsible for your country's monetary system might be "wizards" and everything will be solved without any serious issues. Haha.

[Flexystar]

I don't think it is as easy as you have depicted it here. You mean to say overgrowing of the inflation will reverse the outcome of inflation turn the situation into deflation again? Just like that? I am pretty sure that is not what happens if something is overgrown. The outcome of inflation won't reverse on itself but it will turn the economy upside down leading to worst economic crisis we have ever seen. With the increased federal debts and national reserves for various countries getting depleted or becoming hard to manage due to increased dollar to local currency value, its gonna get worst if nothing is controlled.

But we should know that everything depends on the major factors like how FED is going to regulate the interest, what are the methodology behind the overcoming of unemployment, increased rates and much more.

To all those people in the topic who mentioned that inflation is still high in their particular countries/regions, my reply for that I would say wait for two things.
- Aggressive rate hikes that would bring forth Deflation or a Recession
OR
- Aggressive price increases which would bring forth Stagflation, then rate hikes, then a Deflation + Recession AKA Depression
OR
The Cabal responsible for your country's monetary system might be "wizards" and everything will be solved without any serious issues. Haha.

That is definitely magical if it happens. But we all know the burden is on us, the tax payers always hit hard with such hikes. Cost of living is off the roof right now. For them it might be magical wand, for us it's grim reality.

[dothebeats]

Many think that in 2023 there will be deflation, if this is true, of course it is a better thing than inflation which is very difficult, in my country deflation is very rare, since I was in high school and knew economics lessons and saw the economic history in my country then only deflation occurred several times in agricultural products, apart from agricultural products, this has never happened.

I agree, of course it's a good thing. However, usually when prices goes down it wouldn't be as drastic like how it went up. Essentially, it wouldn't be as dramatic of a change as inflation goes where we can actually feel it the moment it hits. But this, of course, does not necessarily mean thag it's a bad thing.

[Litzki1990]

Various economists believe that 2023 may see the most inflationary event. Many countries have already been warned of inflation in 2023. There are many developing countries that may suffer the most inflation. We cannot ignore the phenomenon of inflation, only those who have experienced such incidents know how much of a threat inflation is to the economic system of a country. Since inflation is already being predicted, we should be alert about it in advance. I think the governments of every country should be aware of this and plan how they will deal with inflation during inflation. The government should conduct awareness campaigns as well as awareness campaigns so that people can be prepared for this issue.

[kingvirtus09]

The Federal Reserve is now watching the markets closely, and the continuity of withdrawing liquidity for a long period will accelerate avoiding deflation. It is easy to pump liquidity, but it will make it difficult to reach “healthy” inflation during the current fiscal year.

I am afraid of what is happening in China. The last thing we are waiting to see now is the return of  COVID19 with a good mutation, which means more health restrictions.
And the war that is taking place in Ukraine and the lack of control over it.
The energy crisis and its problems, especially with the European economy.

So we have enough problems to fear deflation

It may not happen that we will return to covid19 again, because we have seen its effects and effects all over the world and that is not good. After all, we haven't fully recovered after several years of pandemic.
Then I don't think the FED will let that happen, as long as they find a solution, they are for sure already doing it and preparing to not lead to such a situation.

[Davian144]

I agree, of course it's a good thing. However, usually when prices goes down it wouldn't be as drastic like how it went up. Essentially, it wouldn't be as dramatic of a change as inflation goes where we can actually feel it the moment it hits. But this, of course, does not necessarily mean thag it's a bad thing.

Decreases and increases that are not drastic usually only occur temporarily, so it is not worth saying that it is bad and it doesn't have to be called good either. Because things that happen temporarily are caused by ordinary factors that can affect prices in the market tend to change just a little bit, but in terms of inflation I see the effect can be a little bigger because almost the whole world can feel it even though everyone has their own way of dealing with it with their own methods.

[summonerrk]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I don't think anything like that will happen.The fact is that the consequences of Russia's separation from the world economy have already passed. The import and export chains in the world have normalized and everyone has found new reliable suppliers. Someone shifted to India and China, someone became closer to cooperate with Europe. All the consequences have already passed. Yes, the US Federal Reserve system loves to print money without it, which is not provided with anything. And of course, this affects the global economy, but not so much that bitcoin is in a strong movement.

[doomloop]

The threat of world economic recession makes us be vigilant, many countries report slow economic inflation and growth so that it can make us poor, the easy step we have to take from now is trying to find other sources of opinion, if we work 5 days per week then we can Use the remaining 2 days to get additional income.

Why only 2 days? Someone who works only 8 hours a day can easily make some time to do a part-time job if they really want to earn some extra money, even if you have a family and have to give them time too, you can still have some time to spare that you can use for a secondary income, the best way is to learn some skill that you can use to do a job from home only to earn a few bucks every day, it can be a good way to at least have some extra savings every month.

Those who work extra hours, like more than 10, cannot do anything like this, and they will have to look for other jobs that can give them a bit more freedom so that they can do something else as a part-time job to earn some extra cash, if they don't want to do that, they might face problems in the future.

[hafiztalha]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I don't think anything like that will happen.The fact is that the consequences of Russia's separation from the world economy have already passed. The import and export chains in the world have normalized and everyone has found new reliable suppliers. Someone shifted to India and China, someone became closer to cooperate with Europe. All the consequences have already passed. Yes, the US Federal Reserve system loves to print money without it, which is not provided with anything. And of course, this affects the global economy, but not so much that bitcoin is in a strong movement.

There is no scene of deflation in USA. When Covid was in wave, many industries struggle a lot. Many industries have to stop their work, because there was no orders, they did not work in advance. So they have to clear industries and they push many employees into unemployment. That was a worse situation, there was a inflation, there are no chances of deflation because in USA services in goods price will go up due to inflation. There is no institution or government that will bend deflation to their side and inflation to other side. Deflation happens, when inflation is below 0 percent mean to say -0 percent that is practically not possible. When inflation affects one country, others countries are also affected by this. Because every country import and export things, their currency uses in other countries for trading.

[TheSpiral]

The threat of a recession of the global economy makes us have to be vigilant, not too easy to waste money for useless things such as parties, culinary, tourism and so on, it's better to immediately prepare with investment, no problem even though the value we think is lost, and cryptocurrencies are worth us Make a portion of investment because of a large profit potential.

People sometimes don't think about investment but they spend all amount they earned therefore when they need some amount immediately then they don't have any cash. If people have an idea that anytime inflation can reach to its peak then they will never use their money in anything which have no value and also they will use their maximum part of income as investment.

 If you have make investment and at any stage of life you don't want to do job then the others investment will help you and will act as a great support for you. With minimum cost you cannot create any business but when you invest some amount on monthly or annual basis then you will be able to use this large sum for creation of any business idea.

[philipma1957]

Well making a contrary prediction back in Jan of 2023 was bold . It looks like it was and will continue to be wrong. Inflation will stick around maybe till 2025.

[Unbunplease]

Higher energy prices lead to higher prices for the rest of the products and for shipping. For prices to fall and deflation to occur, there must be overproduction of at least oil, but the oil cartel has reduced oil production. Therefore, I personally do not see any conditions for the onset of so-called deflation at the moment

[Wind_FURY]

Higher energy prices lead to higher prices for the rest of the products and for shipping. For prices to fall and deflation to occur, there must be overproduction of at least oil, but the oil cartel has reduced oil production. Therefore, I personally do not see any conditions for the onset of so-called deflation at the moment

It's not that simple because overproduction also has a cost. If you increase production, the producer has to spend more for more employees, spend more for logsitics, more output, more for storage, which are also inflationary. Plus never forget that there never was inflation in any form that did not expand the money supply. It has ALWAYS been a monetary phenomenon.

[philipma1957]

Higher energy prices lead to higher prices for the rest of the products and for shipping. For prices to fall and deflation to occur, there must be overproduction of at least oil, but the oil cartel has reduced oil production. Therefore, I personally do not see any conditions for the onset of so-called deflation at the moment

It's not that simple because overproduction also has a cost. If you increase production, the producer has to spend more for more employees, spend more for logsitics, more output, more for storage, which are also inflationary. Plus never forget that there never was inflation in any form that did not expand the money supply. It has ALWAYS been a monetary phenomenon.

Well you did push a btc rise in the opening post so you were spot on with that.

Eggs got cheap by me. but most every other food went up in price. Along with many other items.

[STT]

I dont disagree deflationary effects can occur but ultimately we already know what side the bias is because Dollar will weaken drastically over the following decades.   Reason being deflation would relate to debt default or extreme taxation and confiscation, its possible but I dont imagine that occurs vs further dilution of the dollar monetary base value.


In next 3 years over half of treasury debt must be renewed or paid off.  There is no surplus just a continual deficit:
https://youtu.be/dt6a063Sdzk
Its not new, its been said before but presently Gov is borrowing 8.6bn a day.  The interest paid now yearly is higher then the total amount owed in previous decades.  If Volcker was here we'd end up with 15% interest rates perhaps and a ton of pain or deflation as mentioned but almost nobody would or could act like Volcker did 40 years ago and the more obvious path is dollar halves in value yet again.  I think another commentator mentioned inflation over the last 3 or 4 years has been about 50%, I should have saved the timestamp but these estimates and statements arent extreme just normal now.

there must be overproduction

Excess supply vs demand but we have rising demand in energy and its structural to economies growing faster then the west.

[Fortify]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

Deflation would be welcomed by many people considering the huge inflation in the last year that has effected everything from food, to furniture, to clothing, to fuel. If we stepped back a couple years people were making all sorts of predictions but you can guarantee that very few people were guessing accurately. Even the best experts in the world, central bankers and organizations like the IMF, wouldn't really like to admit that they often don't have a clue what the future holds. The Ukraine war came out of nowhere and triggered a bunch of consequences that nobody could have foreseen before. Who know's if a wider war in the Middle East would cause even more economic chaos for the whole world?

[Cryptomultiplier]

I would welcome deflation because of the reasons of inflation that I have witnessed and I think that it would be a good time to accumulate BTC because the prices of daily living would have been reduced, thus enabling more funds to be channeled to other areas.

Currently, the interest rates are higher than normal and I believe the prices of commodities would reduce but interest rates may linger for a duration because once prices go up, it's always hard for it to come down.

[philipma1957]

I would welcome deflation because of the reasons of inflation that I have witnessed and I think that it would be a good time to accumulate BTC because the prices of daily living would have been reduced, thus enabling more funds to be channeled to other areas.

Currently, the interest rates are higher than normal and I believe the prices of commodities would reduce but interest rates may linger for a duration because once prices go up, it's always hard for it to come down.

I have been around a long time. You see some deflation in electronics and tech. but most everything else just goes up and 🆙.

[DooMAD]

Wouldn't mind seeing some deflation in London.  If you go to see a band or show there, most of the bars are charging £12.00 (roughly $14.50 USD) or more for a single spirit+mixer.  That's -one- drink.  Daylight robbery.

Also, most of them are "cashless", which is frustrating.  Still don't know how that's legal.

[DrBeer]

Everyone dislikes inflation... It's hard to argue. But deflation is the "other side of the coin", and noticeable deflation is not a gift either. It's from the realm of "everything seems fine, but it's getting worse and worse every day"

"Deflation is a steady decline in the prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.
As demand falls, companies are forced to reduce production and lower prices. Fewer employees are needed to produce less goods, and companies start laying off staff, which leads to higher unemployment. Increased unemployment causes demand to fall because people have less money."

In this situation, I would favor low inflation, so stimulate the economy and invest the "skinny money"

[Volimack]

We can expect that our profit-making cycle is on the way, although not as much as before, but no one has any idea of the price level that Bitcoin will reach in the future. But I think it will be much higher than before but I don't know how much it will be, I can only guess that the highest price will be.

[Dunamisx]

We dislike inflation at all cost because it makes people get incapable of affording a living expenses when there's no increase in their income flow and every other things are increasing in price, it such continues then it may lead to an increase in the poverty poverty level and life may be unfavourable to many individuals and households, now over to deflation, are we really seing this coming or we are just perplexed about it.

[Wind_FURY]

I would welcome deflation because of the reasons of inflation that I have witnessed and I think that it would be a good time to accumulate BTC because the prices of daily living would have been reduced, thus enabling more funds to be channeled to other areas.

Currently, the interest rates are higher than normal and I believe the prices of commodities would reduce but interest rates may linger for a duration because once prices go up, it's always hard for it to come down.

I have been around a long time. You see some deflation in electronics and tech. but most everything else just goes up and 🆙.

But those products are relatively still expensive, no? A good, brand new smart phone still can't be afforded by most plebs if they don't have a credit card or any kind of access to credit.

Everyone dislikes inflation... It's hard to argue. But deflation is the "other side of the coin", and noticeable deflation is not a gift either. It's from the realm of "everything seems fine, but it's getting worse and worse every day"

"Deflation is a steady decline in the prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.
As demand falls, companies are forced to reduce production and lower prices. Fewer employees are needed to produce less goods, and companies start laying off staff, which leads to higher unemployment. Increased unemployment causes demand to fall because people have less money."

In this situation, I would favor low inflation, so stimulate the economy and invest the "skinny money"

You're absolutely right, but deflation through recession is precisely what the economies around the world need to control inflation. Because if the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other Central Banks around the world won't cause a recession themselves through QT/tightening of the money supply, then inflation will do it for them.

[DrBeer]

You're absolutely right, but deflation through recession is precisely what the economies around the world need to control inflation. Because if the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other Central Banks around the world won't cause a recession themselves through QT/tightening of the money supply, then inflation will do it for them.

I disagree, it seems to me that deflation and recession are not mutually corrective processes. And what is important - recession, in my opinion, is not able to correct inflation. Let me explain my position: Recession is a phase of the economic cycle when the economy falls and slows down. A recession is talked about when GDP declines for two quarters. That is, this process leads to a decrease in the circulation of money, but also reduces income and tax revenues to the budget. And this usually leads to the fact that the state will have to borrow money somewhere, because tax revenues are decreasing (state revenues), but mandatory state expenditures are not decreasing. Therefore, the state either credits or "prints money", which can hardly be called deflation. If I am mistaken - please correct me ?

[TakeItEasy]

Fed printing of Money brought about two things, 1. price inflation, which is an increase in the price of goods and commodities, and 2. money inflation, which is printing 20% more in circulation just in one year. If at all we are close to a point where we are about to experience deflation, where FED may think of starting a quantitative easing QE, I don't see that of price inflation get solved any time soon.
Here in my country, the price of goods and services is skyrocketing and there's no sign of when it's going to be over.

Inflation is due to the falls in the goods we need and when the users are more there is inflation and users will also not make things change, because the government would take care of it, as you talked about the fed printing as this is due to the people of a  country which are living inside the country and that is not due to the government or due to any other supporting the countries but only due to the persons inside that country. So, to get rid of inflation these things should also be stopped as due to media the things prices usually going up as they are seeing one thing and they are explaining another side of it. So, all these things usually affect the inflation rate in any country which would be better for the government to take care of on time.

[Wind_FURY]

You're absolutely right, but deflation through recession is precisely what the economies around the world need to control inflation. Because if the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other Central Banks around the world won't cause a recession themselves through QT/tightening of the money supply, then inflation will do it for them.

I disagree, it seems to me that deflation and recession are not mutually corrective processes. And what is important - recession, in my opinion, is not able to correct inflation.

Let me explain my position: Recession is a phase of the economic cycle when the economy falls and slows down. A recession is talked about when GDP declines for two quarters. That is, this process leads to a decrease in the circulation of money, but also reduces income and tax revenues to the budget. And this usually leads to the fact that the state will have to borrow money somewhere, because tax revenues are decreasing (state revenues), but mandatory state expenditures are not decreasing.

Therefore, the state either credits or "prints money", which can hardly be called deflation. If I am mistaken - please correct me ?

You're not wrong, but you're talking about something else. When the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks around the world start turning on the money printer and start the pivot to Quantitative Easing, then the situation has changed from that of being deflationary to inflationary. That's not a deflationary period anymore.

A deflationary period/tightening of the money supply, which causes a recession, and therefore curbs inflation, is still needed for the Central Banks to be given room to print money again, but hopefully more responsibly. In the current state of the monetary situation, the Federal Reserve have its hands tied. They can't print more money because risk of reinflation is still high. Core CPI needs to go down under 2%.

[DrBeer]

You're absolutely right, but deflation through recession is precisely what the economies around the world need to control inflation. Because if the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other Central Banks around the world won't cause a recession themselves through QT/tightening of the money supply, then inflation will do it for them.

I disagree, it seems to me that deflation and recession are not mutually corrective processes. And what is important - recession, in my opinion, is not able to correct inflation.

Let me explain my position: Recession is a phase of the economic cycle when the economy falls and slows down. A recession is talked about when GDP declines for two quarters. That is, this process leads to a decrease in the circulation of money, but also reduces income and tax revenues to the budget. And this usually leads to the fact that the state will have to borrow money somewhere, because tax revenues are decreasing (state revenues), but mandatory state expenditures are not decreasing.

Therefore, the state either credits or "prints money", which can hardly be called deflation. If I am mistaken - please correct me ?

You're not wrong, but you're talking about something else. When the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks around the world start turning on the money printer and start the pivot to Quantitative Easing, then the situation has changed from that of being deflationary to inflationary. That's not a deflationary period anymore.

A deflationary period/tightening of the money supply, which causes a recession, and therefore curbs inflation, is still needed for the Central Banks to be given room to print money again, but hopefully more responsibly. In the current state of the monetary situation, the Federal Reserve have its hands tied. They can't print more money because risk of reinflation is still high. Core CPI needs to go down under 2%.

Thanks for the clarification, it does seem like we were talking about slightly different entities and processes.
In any case, we will watch the development of the situation, as today there is a high probability of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which may lead to a significant increase in oil, which will entail many not very "popular decisions" to support the economies of developed countries. And money printing will be one of the ways to keep the economy "afloat"

[Wind_FURY]

You're absolutely right, but deflation through recession is precisely what the economies around the world need to control inflation. Because if the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other Central Banks around the world won't cause a recession themselves through QT/tightening of the money supply, then inflation will do it for them.

I disagree, it seems to me that deflation and recession are not mutually corrective processes. And what is important - recession, in my opinion, is not able to correct inflation.

Let me explain my position: Recession is a phase of the economic cycle when the economy falls and slows down. A recession is talked about when GDP declines for two quarters. That is, this process leads to a decrease in the circulation of money, but also reduces income and tax revenues to the budget. And this usually leads to the fact that the state will have to borrow money somewhere, because tax revenues are decreasing (state revenues), but mandatory state expenditures are not decreasing.

Therefore, the state either credits or "prints money", which can hardly be called deflation. If I am mistaken - please correct me ?

You're not wrong, but you're talking about something else. When the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks around the world start turning on the money printer and start the pivot to Quantitative Easing, then the situation has changed from that of being deflationary to inflationary. That's not a deflationary period anymore.

A deflationary period/tightening of the money supply, which causes a recession, and therefore curbs inflation, is still needed for the Central Banks to be given room to print money again, but hopefully more responsibly. In the current state of the monetary situation, the Federal Reserve have its hands tied. They can't print more money because risk of reinflation is still high. Core CPI needs to go down under 2%.

Thanks for the clarification, it does seem like we were talking about slightly different entities and processes.
In any case, we will watch the development of the situation, as today there is a high probability of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which may lead to a significant increase in oil, which will entail many not very "popular decisions" to support the economies of developed countries. And money printing will be one of the ways to keep the economy "afloat"

Plus Canada. I don't actually know what's the monetary situation in Canada, or if they're also tightening like many of the rest of the other regions, BUT there's some economic data that says that they are going into a recession. I can only presume that's because they're also having their own deflationory cycle because there's no other way unless inflation did it for them, which is obviously more dangerous.

[Biznesmen]

The world will talk about inflation, and China will talk about deflation. China is on the brink of deflation; the prices of goods and assets decrease across the economy and increase the value of money. The causes are less demand, high supply, a higher propensity to save, etc. If the deflation is longer, the effects are law growth, unemployment, recession, reduced wages and layoffs, reduced consumer spending, etc. Then the government is the one who should take initiative in matters like making loans cheaper, tax deductions, subsidies, boosting demand, etc. Inflation, or deflation, is a natural process that can be easily overcome with small cracks when the government takes action at the right time.

[DrBeer]

The world will talk about inflation, and China will talk about deflation. China is on the brink of deflation; the prices of goods and assets decrease across the economy and increase the value of money. The causes are less demand, high supply, a higher propensity to save, etc. If the deflation is longer, the effects are law growth, unemployment, recession, reduced wages and layoffs, reduced consumer spending, etc. Then the government is the one who should take initiative in matters like making loans cheaper, tax deductions, subsidies, boosting demand, etc. Inflation, or deflation, is a natural process that can be easily overcome with small cracks when the government takes action at the right time.

Let me partially disagree. In my opinion, in this example you are confusing cause and effect. It is unemployment, a decrease in industrial production, mass layoffs, as well as a slowdown and in some places a “freezing” of production - they are what give rise to a recession, but not vice versa. For example, take the “colossus with feet of clay” - Evergrande. Its bankruptcy or “stopping” will lead to truly dire consequences for the Chinese economy. In addition to laying off a lot of people in the Evergrande company itself, many hundreds of companies that provided its business will also be on the verge of bankruptcy! And this is probably more than one million, and maybe even more than tens of millions of workers who will be left without a livelihood. At the same time, I’m not sure that the Chinese government will start printing money to “support” these people, their families and those they provided for (parents, grandmothers, etc.) on social benefits.

[Suzume]

I don't know the proper definition of 2023. But 2023 is special for me because I have learn many things from this year. I have many wins or loses in this year and this year is a rememberable year for me. Because I lost someone who is closest person to me. I meet someone in this year who is special in my life. The year 2023 teach me a lot and help me to fixed target I want to do in future what I want etc etc.

[Wind_FURY]

Credit card defaults are surging faster than 2007 - 2008, during the last Financial Crisis.



The current economic situation might be worse than expected. Because of people can't pay for their credit card bills, that probably means they are out of savings, and if they're out of savings, then if they are  out of savings and can't pay their credit card bills, then there will be = Low Demand, which will also mean low earnings for businesses. Low earnings for businesses = Employee Lay-off = Recession.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Right now most of the countries are facing double digit inflation and with crude oil prices moving upward and nearing hundred dollars per barrel, we can expect inflation to go up even further also after covid most of the countries printed huge numbers of bank notes without any limit this also increased the inflation. Given this scenario I don't think that deflation is possible anytime soon. Nowadays people have lot of cash and there is a scarcity of different commodities in order for deflation to happen it should be the opposite scenario- less cash in hand and over supply of commodities.

[YOSHIE]

I asked myself and was a little curious about the economy and Bitcoin, as far as I know, every new ATH the price of Bitcoin continues to increase, maybe this is because the world economy is improving, maybe.

Question...?
What if the world economy is very bad globally, so can what OP says below continue?

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

It's not that I'm not sure, but looking at the current economic conditions, on average almost all over the world is bad, could this phenomenon possibly happen to Bitcoin, otherwise.

[DeathAngel]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I sure hope so, that was my first bull run. I was like a deer in headlights, euphoric but also clueless. Gains akin to those times would be amazing. We have the right macro financial setup, let’s cross our fingers & see how it goes.

[Wind_FURY]

I asked myself and was a little curious about the economy and Bitcoin, as far as I know, every new ATH the price of Bitcoin continues to increase, maybe this is because the world economy is improving, maybe.

Question...?
What if the world economy is very bad globally, so can what OP says below continue?

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

It's not that I'm not sure, but looking at the current economic conditions, on average almost all over the world is bad, could this phenomenon possibly happen to Bitcoin, otherwise.

Actually, the economic conditions "going bad" could also be seen as = economic conditions "cooling down". Because after more than 10 years of low interest rates, Q.E., and easy credit, the economy for many regions around the world were surging. But that's not sustainable. We're paying for the negative effects of easy credit.

Plus currently unemployment data and statistics are still low, but I believe because of Q.T. and high interest rates, we'll see those numbers surge, AND THAT'S WHEN THE PIVOT HAPPENS = BRRRRR-MONEY-PRINTING. Wait for it.