"Prepare for deflation in 2023"

[franky1]

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales nor understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween the window frame

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and let the markets teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

you mention the surges of 2011-13-15-17    which range from 10x-100x
im going to say a window of 2x-10x at most

see ya next year

[Wind_FURY]

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales not understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

Don't post as if you truly know EVERYTHING behind EVERYTHING. Because, as many posters have already discovered, you have always lied especially about technical discussions about Bitcoin, you have disinformed and gaslighted newbies during the Scaling Debate, everyone can see the proof in your trust-rating.

I know that what I said is debatable, but I'm merely arguing for a deflationary event followed by massive QE and a massive inflationary event when Money Printer goes BRRRRR. Bitcoin will surge, and surge like it was 2015 - 2017. If I'm wrong by 2025 - 2027 then remind me, if I'm right then ignore me.

[franky1]

topic title "in 2023"
topic post content "2023"

If I'm wrong by 2025 - 2027 then remind me, if I'm right then ignore me.

"in 2023" yet now you want to sneak out of your own timescales

also.. funny thing is all your cries for last couple years about how features activated.. seems this month you finally seen the light. and have been in a topic surprisingly saying along with a couple of your chums the exact process i was describing to you for years.

but hey. seems it took you years of crying to realise it

heck even your defenders/girlfriends blackhat & doomad are both admitting that their favoured LN is not the scaling solution and admits LN cant cope with all bitcoin utility offramps they were promoting..
and now even saying how the 2017 contentious hardfork was not about scaling (another broken promise) and all that crap.. seems they and you are quick to suddenly agree with my versions of events after all
so welcome to 2023 a fresh start

so.. like i just said in previous post
ill let time itself teach you a lesson. seems its the only way you will learn

oh
and i dont even pretend or try to know everything about everything.. thats what research is for .. TO LEARN
try it

[KingsDen]

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales not understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

Don't post as if you truly know EVERYTHING behind EVERYTHING. Because, as many posters have already discovered, you have always lied especially about technical discussions about Bitcoin,

I haven't actually caught franky1 lying, what he does is to differ from many people's opinion which seems to be some general opinions. So, not joining the believe of the crowd doesn't make him a liar. And many as possible he gives detailed analysis to support his claim.

About bitcoin surge or dip, he had always maintained that for this circle, the bitcoin window is opened between $15k to $75. With due diligence, you can see how bitcoin made a u turn after testing 15k and disappointed many that waited for $10k.
I am not saying franky is always right, but give the dude some respect, he is unique and knowledgeable.

[franky1]

i am definitely unique

if i was to be another crowd hugger just going with the flow of the social narrative, then thats just spam of no discussion, just ass-kissery

i do offer differing opinions when it matters most, especially when some people get stuck in some social echo chamber of details they didnt learn via researched sources, but just what some other social influencer said

EG instead of researching my opinions. for years windy has taken on the cause of calling me a liar because someone else called me a liar. and so he just circle chased his own tail into perpetual insanity of finger pointing

heres one prime example
gmax's first gripe with me was about "anyonecanspend" opcode being abused to function as the tx format trojan where he and co-devs were ademant that segwit can be soft and people can easily just start making segwit transactions with the anyonecanspend opcode without needing some hard activation of upgrading the nodes and all, nor nodes being ready to service said upgrade should it activate

however it turns out with all his cries and him staying by his beleifs until the last minute, that soft and easy to use segwit adoption he thought was true to him.. wasnt..
reality showed that it ended up needing a contentious hard activation, where unupgraded nodes would be given a stripped down version of blocks and not relayed on purpose zero-confirm segwit tx's..
and even after activation, a delay of many months until core deemed it safe to then release the wallet functionality to then make segwit transactions.. (they wanted to ensure the unupgraded nodes had enough upgraded nodes to filter the unupgraded nodes to the edges of the network. as end points. not midpoint peers)
 so they end up taking my point.. even though it must have felt like to them they were getting their head beaten to the wall before they realised it

its not about knowing everything.
its about actually giving a crap to learn things outside some scope certain people want to pigeon hole people
its about knowing bitcoin is not some self creating AI code. its made by devs
its about caring about bitcoin enough to want to learn and also review and critique those that have the power to change or add bugs into the protocol
its about not kissing ass because there are already too many sleep ass kissers, we dont need more of them
case-in-point
windy thinks bitcoins price is reflective of the FIAT inflation.. (facepalm)
no bitcoins market price is not about how much large money is thrown at a market

i can easily do some whale trades of large money to keep the price at the same price.. oh wait someone else is doing that most weeks (note the resistance wall of $17k in december the 21.5k wall early jan and the $23k wall those week)

bitcoins market is not dependant on all the 19m coins of circulation either

yes as a simplification bitcoin is deflationary meaning looking at the 4 year view bitcoin moves up in price and value compared to previous. as oppose to fiats inflation where every few years you get to buy LESS bread(down value) for same amount of fiat

but to suggest x=y as a exact mirror of the minutia of daily price. . nope. theres no correlation

2022 seen alot more institutional investors doing futures option on bitcoin which caused the "step down" correction pattern rather than a free market of speculation

2023 will see some stepping up but not for reasons windy heard from some other social influencer

[Wind_FURY]

topic title "in 2023"
topic post content "2023"

Get the context of what's being discussed in the topic, and stop being franky-101. You probably didn't read it with your obvious short-attention-span.

If I'm wrong by 2025 - 2027 then remind me, if I'm right then ignore me.

"in 2023" yet now you want to sneak out of your own timescales

also.. funny thing is all your cries for last couple years about how features activated.. seems this month you finally seen the light. and have been in a topic surprisingly saying along with a couple of your chums the exact process i was describing to you for years.

but hey. seems it took you years of crying to realise it

No one is crying, franky-101, except you and your Flat-Earther friends from the Big Block World SINCE 2017. Hahaha.

you do not understand the reasons for the previous surges nor bothered to calculate their scales not understand the basics of the market window of value:premium to which the PRICE pivots INBETWEEN

if you cannot even work out the value:premium window. you have no clue to then gauge how much volatility possibility the market PRICE can then have inbetween

so instead of trying to give you suggestions to then research.. which you seem to waste years ignoring until it hits you in the face.. ill leave you to let things play themselves out and teach you a lesson the hard way. all by themselves

Don't post as if you truly know EVERYTHING behind EVERYTHING. Because, as many posters have already discovered, you have always lied especially about technical discussions about Bitcoin,

I haven't actually caught franky1 lying, what he does is to differ from many people's opinion which seems to be some general opinions. So, not joining the believe of the crowd doesn't make him a liar. And many as possible he gives detailed analysis to support his claim.

About bitcoin surge or dip, he had always maintained that for this circle, the bitcoin window is opened between $15k to $75. With due diligence, you can see how bitcoin made a u turn after testing 15k and disappointed many that waited for $10k.
I am not saying franky is always right, but give the dude some respect, he is unique and knowledgeable.

OK, we either learn the easy way, or the hard way, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5192937.0

I learned the hard way.

Let's go back on-topic, or I start reporting to the mods.

[franky1]

yet again. revealing more about yourself then you should

yep it was you and doomad in autumn 2019 that cried to mods that your flawed opinions were being critiqued. and then you ever since been tail chasing in circles using the result of your cries as if they are proof that you are right. when all it really is proof of, is that you can cry the loudest and get mommy and daddy mod to react

get away from the social drama of tail chasing your own confirmation biases until you make yourself insane.
learn something new to break your infinity loop

its funny how you quote a mod who was getting frustrated that you lot were crying to him soo much he had to act. where by it was your social clubs cries that he was referring to

thus no facts. just a social drama cycle of your own making

try to stick to real data, not social quotes of your own causality


now to get on topic and explain why i just said all that. you keep failing to know causality of things, you fail to do research, plus when you mention 2023 huge surge.. expect someone to critique your opinion of a huge surge in 2023

if you just want people to agree with you. then record your voice. and play it back to yourself
this is a discussion forum. expect other opinions that differ than your own

stop trying to censor away individuality until all you have left is your echo chamber club of ass kissers


final lesson of the day
if bitcoin value is say $16k in january. and market PRICE(dont confuse the two) is not $17k but instead say $speculating at $22k-$50k

bitcoin is not showing "deflationary" actions. its speculating at a premium away from store of value. thus is having a bubble(inflation) which when it corrects back down to value loses people a % of their wealth rather then protecting it if it stayed at $~17k for now

yep its better to buy 2x btc at $17k each rather than 1btc at $34k
if you are looking for price rises. your not looking to see btc deflation in action. you are looking to see an exit to get fiat. which again is a sign you dint understand the economics of bitcoin and benefits of bitcoin. and you just want to see yourself with fiat riches

..
looking for one off ATH "surges" has nothing to do with bitcoins deflation. what you are looking for is temporary inflation bubbles that correct

[Wind_FURY]

--Snip--

OK, franky-101. You have already made your point. Please stop derailing the topic, and open your own and go start being a drama-queen there. I'm merely trying to make an argument that because of the tightening/QT, it might cause a delationary cycle that could start in 2023.

Plus if the deflationary cycle causes a recession by all definitions, in history, the cabal behind the Federal Reserve has always reacted exceedingly. Based on that, there might be massive QE/BRRRRR-Printing like 2008, and what did that bring to the market? Surges to ATH after ATH, a super cycle.



Quote me if I'm wrong, ignore if I'm right.

[Sayeds56]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I think FED will continue increasing interest rates to stabilize prices of commodities and energy, however, it won't lead to Deflation in 2023. Deflation, or sustained decline in prices is never good good for the economy, as it can result in decreased spending & investment, which can lead to decline in economic growth and causes unemployment. If deflation were to occur, FED can use monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing to stimulate economy.

[TalkativeCoin]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I think FED will continue increasing interest rates to stabilize prices of commodities and energy, however, it won't lead to Deflation in 2023. Deflation, or sustained decline in prices is never good good for the economy, as it can result in decreased spending & investment, which can lead to decline in economic growth and causes unemployment. If deflation were to occur, FED can use monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing to stimulate economy.

+1

In best case scenario we could see a glimpse of deflation at the end of 2023.

[franky1]

so now your "defation" is not about bitcoin.. but about a fiat "defation"

ok lets handle this new swerve to your topic you instigated

after all inflations there is always recession.. its fiats polar opposite.
they dont call it deflation they just call it the correction of inflation where there is still inflation but just at lower %
they hope to get back to 2%

for a fiat DEFLATION there would need to be true money being taken away. a minus interest.
this will be where all bank accounts instead of earning a small interest, start charging people for using banks. and where people have to hand in their $100 bank note and only get out $98 for a 2% deflation

the effect of such an event is that people start allowing more bread to be bought with less dollar needed.

but that is not what is going to happen

they just want to recess(take a break) from printing 11% more paper. and bring it down to a 2% print
i cant see a minus money clawback and destruction event happening

yes recession may feel like people have less money. but thats because there is still more then 2% being printed. but normal people are not the receivers of it. it ends up in the back pockets of institutions

[Sayeds56]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I think FED will continue increasing interest rates to stabilize prices of commodities and energy, however, it won't lead to Deflation in 2023. Deflation, or sustained decline in prices is never good good for the economy, as it can result in decreased spending & investment, which can lead to decline in economic growth and causes unemployment. If deflation were to occur, FED can use monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing to stimulate economy.

+1

In best case scenario we could see a glimpse of deflation at the end of 2023.

It is difficult to predict anything with certainty , however It is possible that deflation may occur at the end of 2023 as inflation is cooling since June-22, but it will depend on variety of economic factors, such as interest rates and GDP & energy prices. I think FED may reverse its policy of money tightening , if there is a concern of deflation in economy. Governments always try their level best to avoid deflation in economy, as deflation is always worse than inflation, because it reduces economic activity and causes unemployment.

[DooMAD]

blackhat & doomad are both admitting that their favoured LN is not the scaling solution and admits LN cant cope with all bitcoin utility offramps they were promoting..
and now even saying how the 2017 contentious hardfork was not about scaling (another broken promise) and all that crap.. seems they and you are quick to suddenly agree with my versions of events after all
so welcome to 2023 a fresh start

Lies and horseshit.  LN is a viable contribution to assist with scaling for smaller sums.  It is not in-and-of-itself a "solution" and was not designed to handle large payments.

Now, either you provide a direct quote of me stating contrary to my words in this post, or you concede to being a liar and a cunt.  I'll wait.

[Wind_FURY]

so now your "defation" is not about bitcoin.. but about a fiat "defation"

You came in the topic, and tried to derail it, without understanding what it is truly all about? I'm disappointed franky. I thought you were smart. Read OP!

ok lets handle this new swerve to your topic you instigated

You then try to gaslight everyone into believing that the topic was swerved into something else. Newbies, did you see that? That's = franky-101.

[franky1]

@windfury
you were the one talking about
"defation in 2023"
"Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017"

my responses where about those and responded by correcting the details of your hyper expectations.. (bringing you down to a more reasonable reality of expectations)
you seem to have acknowledged not to expect bitcoin surges to the expectations you suggested in first post(well done), .. but you done so, by you deviating the narrative to be about fiat and no longer about bitcoin surge expectation

i did not derail or swerve the topic. i just noticed your swerves to avoid saying "ok logic looks like frankys expectations seem more reasonable"

so i observed the swerves and responded accordingly
dont blame me for being frank

@doomad
everyone can read you post history of the last 6 years
every "scaling bitcoin" topic you jump in saying bitcoin should not change because [insert LN advert] as the solution to scaling

many examples of it . your post history show ample examples..
but thanks for changing your narrative now(took you years, but you got there finally) to be less snake oil overhyped over promise than before. something i have been telling you for those years.

its taken you time to learn to not over commit on the empty promise
but dont back peddle now and go back to old salespitch scripts

[DooMAD]

LN is a viable contribution to assist with scaling for smaller sums.  It is not in-and-of-itself a "solution" and was not designed to handle large payments.

Now, either you provide a direct quote of me stating contrary to my words in this post, or you concede to being a liar and a cunt.  I'll wait.

@doomad
everyone can read you post history of the last 6 years
every "scaling bitcoin" topic you jump in saying bitcoin should not change because [insert LN advert] as the solution to scaling

many examples of it . your post history show ample examples..
but thanks for changing your narrative now(took you years, but you got there finally) to be less snake oil overhyped over promise than before. something i have been telling you for those years.

its taken you time to learn to not over commit on the empty promise
but dont back peddle now and go back to old salespitch scripts

Note that franky1 has not provided a direct quote to prove his assertions.  He is not able to provide one because I have never said what he claims.  He does a good impression of Donald Trump with the way he throws false accusations around and generally sounding like a total dumbfuck while he does it.  I don't go around telling people to trade sums over $1000 over LN.  I don't hold the view that LN is the "only" solution for scaling.  But he continues to spread disinformation about me, because franky1 is a compulsive and unrelenting liar.

[Wind_FURY]

@windfury
you were the one talking about
"defation in 2023"
"Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017"

I believe you didn't get the context, franky. Read OP. The point of the topic is the cabal of the Federal Reserve's tendency to over-adjust, which causes the boom-bust cycles in the economy.

I posted, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg61609753#msg61609753

A Deflation in 2023, IF it DOES happen, what will the cabal of the Federal Reserve do based on what they have always done during the past recessionary periods? They always did QE/BRRRRR-Money-Printing which causes everything to surge and start another super cycle of bullishness.

[BenCodie]

Expect the unexpected....Too many people who can't even spell "deflation" are calling for a boom with bitcoin this year in 2023. I originally expected another drop in comparison to a year of increase, and the more I read the more I see it happening. As franky1 said, who I have never once disliked a post to date, companies are reaping bond market gains when they should be going bust. This is not natural, and you can only go against nature for so long before it worsens what should have happened in the first place....and that, when the time comes, is good for bitcoin. 2024 is only making more and more sense. Retail investors get hyped and rekt in 2023 with a prolonged pullback, 2024 sets the scene for another explosive and long-term rally. Similar to what we saw in the 900 day bear of 17/18-19/20 toward the two year bull of 20-21 bull.....
...
but who are any of us to say for sure

[franky1]

@windfury
you were trying to infer that FED actions were going to cause a BITCOIN SURGE
i first responded to correct your notions of how the fiat economy works. and in later posts  that not only will there not be a bitcoin surge to the extents you imagine. but  how FED actions doent imply/cause bitcoin surge reactions

i explained what does cause bitcoin surges

you then deviated to say none of your topic was about bitcoin economy but only fed fiat economy. which i then quoted your "bitcoin surge like its 2015-7" to remind you that you stated it was about bitcoin surging
.. as for doomads social drama..
anyone can read his post history. including himself
that is my reference to his suggestions that LN is a bitcoin scaling solution
look at his post history. there are too many to count examples

the many many many many posts where he infers there are many scaling solutions but the devs are currently only working on LN as the main one that promises scaling right now and everyone needs to be patient if they want other options. where he pretend "only franky wants other option" (yet many topics on this forum show many many people discussing bitcoin scaling

its all researchable.

[DooMAD]

many many many

there are many scaling solutions but the devs are currently only working on LN as the main one that promises scaling right now and everyone needs to be patient if they want other options. where he pretend "only franky wants other option" (yet many topics on this forum show many many people discussing bitcoin scaling

The only "scaling" you care about is "dOuBlE fAsTeR hUrR dUrR" (which isn't actually considered scaling by anyone with a brain) and it should be beyond evident by now that we're not doing that at this stage.  It's not incorrect for me to tell you to be patient and stop crying like a baby.  My stance on this and LN has not changed, so you are still a liar and a cunt when you spread misinformation about me.  

i am definitely unique

Serial killers and psychopaths often make similar boasts.