Bitcoin will be vulnerable to Quantum Computers in about 2 years

[HomerF_48]

There may be a temporary bitcoin recovery, but it is doomed long run b/c it is not quantum secure. IBM wll have a QC of 4,000+ qubits by 2025 (in two years). It takes only 1556  qubits to break the ECDSA encryption used to correllate private to public keys. What this means is if you have an exposed (unhashed) public key - which if you ever used your wallet it leaves an unhashed copy of your public key out there on the network for anyone to have - a quantum computer of 1556 or more qubits can take that public key and reverse engineer out your private key. Game over. Bitcoin has no value other than as a way to Secure information - security is literally its only selling point - when that security breaks, as it will, it has no more usefulness and the value will crash to probably just a few dollars, propped up by die-hard dead-ender BTC maxis. If you want to get rich on bitcoin, short it by buying a short bitcoin etf (example is ticker BITI - not financial advice). Doing anything else will result in losing investment.

Google this / do your own research - this is not "FUD", this is just sober fact. Bitcoin public keys can fall with QC's of just 1556 qubits. (Source: https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/33069/why-is-ecc-more-vulnerable-than-rsa-in-a-post-quantum-world ). Misinformation you hear is that it takes many qubits to crack RSA hence bitcoin is safe - this only relates to the bitcoin mining algorithm not the ECDSA algorithm used to relate public/private keys which is more vulnerable. Again - in 2 years or so IBM will have QC strong enough to reverse engineer private key from unhashed public key. When this happens panic will spread and bitcoin will crash. This is as predictable as the housing bubble collapse of 2008 and just like then, there are people who will shout "FUD" at anyone showing the plain and simple facts. Don't be on the wrong side of this.

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[AbuBhakar]

How much quantum computer will cost and also I doubt that this kind of one of a kind computer will be use just to hack a certain wallet while it can be easily tracked on where will the token be send via blockchain.

I’m Bitcoin security will evolve if there’s a threat like this in the future.

[Tesorex]

Do you have any other suggestions other than selling and exiting the market? people with access to Quantum Computers have more concerning issues than just hacking Bitcoin addresses, with the probability of breaking the encryption of strong algorithm, other important things are at stake, like military related encrypted data.

[HomerF_48]

I am not a trader though I am a developer and have worked at a manager level in a cryptocurrency company in the past so I know what I am talking about (I like to hope lol) from a technical standpoint. So I am here to warn about technical vulnerability but cannot give financial advice - there is a short bitcoin ETF (BITI) I have heard about (I am not invested in this myself, again I am not a trader, I just do boring old 401K / index funds lol) so that may be one way to profit, by shorting bitcoin, but again not financial advice.

The point is, in today's internet world, secrets don't stay secret for long. I am sure IBM would not knowingly let its system be used to hack bitcoin, but if they can build such a system, others could - say a state actor like China / North Korea. Yes of course a quantum computer could be used to hack other things too and it probably would - but if you were China (say) you could make millions / billions even, shorting bitcoin if you knew you could take it down, and I am sure they have already thought about this. Also, it is not just about money, it is an ego thing for them - they would love to take down bitcoin in order to stick it to the USA and the West.

And even just these possibilities may be enough to spook the market. Think about it - it is not needed for a country like say North Korea to use a nuclear weapon in order to cause concern - just the fact that North Korea Has a nuclear weapon means we have to take them seriously and try not to provoke them too much. Similarly, just the fact that a system to take down bitcoin *could* be built and used by bad actors, is enough to cause concern and cause ppl to get out of the bitcoin market, causing a crash. So just the existence (in 2025) of a 4000+ qubit machine by IBM (code-named "Kookaburra" - google it) could be enough to crash bitcoin market (because, again, it only takes 6 * 256 qubits, 1,536, to take out ECDSA encryption and allow someone to guess a private key based on the corresponding public key).

Again , not financial advice, I am not a trader and don't care about that. I do care that too many ppl are taking too big risks they cannot afford and they don't understand these risks. Maybe bitcoin will replace ECDSA with a quantum-safe algorithm and I hope they do. But right now they haven't even started on that and they are basically like the Titanic going full steam ahead, ignoring all iceberg warnings. So this is my iceberg warning as a former developer / manager in this space - get to the lifeboats while there is still time.

[DannyHamilton]

. . . in 2 years . . . panic will spread and bitcoin will crash . . . Don't be on the wrong side of this.

How confident are you of your nonsense?

Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?

I suggest a bet.  We both put up some amount of money. Then, 2 years from today, if the exchange rate is less than 50% of today's exchange rate, you get the money. Otherwise, I get it.

Just think, since you're SO sure, this is an easy way for you to guarantee a 100% return on your money!

Or, are you just spouting nonsense and FUD?

[seoincorporation]

If the bitcoin developers see a risk in bitcoin by quantum computers they will do something about it, you really think people will just seat and watch how bitcoin dies? that will not happen.

And even if it happens there is always the option of a hard fork to recover the lost coins on the attack. So, I don't thinks quantum computers will destroy bitcoin, when those computers get enough power to attack bitcoin then BTC will be strong enough to avoid it.

[Baofeng]

Weird and the timing though, this is the second time that I have seen another quantum computer thread, this is the first one,  Breaking RSA Encryption with Quantum Computer. Is this the new FUD attack since the price of bitcoin is going up to the $21k'ish?

And there are a lot of threads as well in the past that discussed about this so called QC and what's it's effect on bitcoin and any other technology that relies on ECDSA encryption.

[dothebeats]

There have been countless threads in the past tackling this very issue that you're so worried about. If bitcoin is not secure against quantum computing, then developers can just move it to a more quantum-resistant algorithm that will at least put up a defense against quantum computers. A lot of pro-bitcoin developers are into this solution, although of course it will not be easy given that we first much reach consensus before major changes are done into the code.

2 years is a pretty short time to give finality on something that has been resistant to most brute-forcing attacks in the past decade.

[LittleBitFunny]

Weird and the timing though, this is the second time that I have seen another quantum computer thread, this is the first one,  Breaking RSA Encryption with Quantum Computer. Is this the new FUD attack since the price of bitcoin is going up to the $21k'ish?

And there are a lot of threads as well in the past that discussed about this so called QC and what's it's effect on bitcoin and any other technology that relies on ECDSA encryption.

I don't know much about technology, and I also heard about QC that can break bitcoins, but I don't believe it to be true. I do not believe that our developers will stand still and do nothing and wait for QC to come to destroy bitcoin, QC is developing, and Bitcoin also developing.
And when it comes to Fuds, you're probably right, I suspect that Fuds is being spread on our forums rather than sending us a warning. In just 1 day, there are 3 quantum topics.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5434765.0

[Upgrade00]

So that gives us two years to come up with abwuantun resistant protocol, thanks for the heads up, although I think the perceived threat is farther off than that.

There has always been an inherent risk of quantum computers making it possible to derive private keys from their public keys, and this risk has always been a topic of discussion, meaning solutions to it would also be readily available when that time comes.

[UchihaSarada]

Weird and the timing though, this is the second time that I have seen another quantum computer thread, this is the first one,  Breaking RSA Encryption with Quantum Computer. Is this the new FUD attack since the price of bitcoin is going up to the $21k'ish?

And there are a lot of threads as well in the past that discussed about this so called QC and what's it's effect on bitcoin and any other technology that relies on ECDSA encryption.

I found many topics about Quantum computers and a first topic was created in 2012. Quantum computer and Bitcoin.

A most informative topic about that is I don't believe Quantum Computing will ever threaten Bitcoin. OP can read it before discussing more.

I am no longer fearful about Quantum computers and their risk to Bitcoin cryptography after reading it.

[kryptqnick]

Bitcoin and quantum computing is an old story, as others have pointed out. Is there any evidence that a powerful enough quantum computer is so close to being real? To me, it's more like a low risk, something where we might suddenly get a breakthrough, but that's unlikely. Sometimes a wall is hit, progress unexpectedly slows  down in an area for many decades. Just look at space exploration and how "far" we've moved since 1960s. I believe that quantum computer that will have enough power to pick a private key is likely to become something like humans on Mars: seemed so close in the second half of previous century, and we're still far from it.
Moreover, security isn't Bitcoin's only selling point. A big point is decentralized form of digital money with fixed supply and open access to mining coins.

[Ale88]

Do you have any other suggestions other than selling and exiting the market? people with access to Quantum Computers have more concerning issues than just hacking Bitcoin addresses, with the probability of breaking the encryption of strong algorithm, other important things are at stake, like military related encrypted data.

I totally agree. Every time I read something about quantum computers it looks like they are being developed just to disrupt bitcoin, that's pretty much the only thing they're useful for. No one ever mentions all the other risks such as military information, national security, nuclear codes, power plants, etc. It's an interesting way to see things.

[franky1]

i dont agree with their timescale. but its healthy to get into practice, early.. .. just in case

"bitcoin" is not vulnerable(in a sense where idiots think bitcoin is overall broke.. (reality: ITS NOT!))

quantum cant compete in regards to the ASIC hashpower of the blockchain(sha)
what is "at risk" is some p2pk utxo's

by using p2pkh or other formats your unspent funds are safer,
(quantum cant really do backward engineering on the ripemd160 hash or sha)

 but just dont re-use address after you spend(PK key is revealed)... put any 'change' or future funds to a new address.

that said. its not like quantum will reverse engineer in 0.1 seconds. it takes time still. which is a slight deterrent so the more you own on a address the more caution to ensure you "spend" correctly.
(they wont waste hours of a billion dollar machine to steal coffee amounts)

debit cards and other banking systems are more at risk..
EG debit cards are not as easy to change your bank account in minutes. but with bitcoin you can use a different address per spend(few minute exposure risk)

[DaveF]

The points are and continue to be:

1) It's a lot of FUD by people who either don't understand so are posting nonsense or who want to spread FUD

2) People who don't realize that breaking BTC is so far down on the list of people who would have access to this kind of tech that it's basically not on the list. Breaking government encryption and banks and RSA and all the rest would be higher up on the list.

3) What franky1 said about p2pk utxo's

4) The cost of doing it in would be more then what you would get.

5) It's been 2 years away since 2013 or so....

-Dave

[cafter]

There is still a significant amount of work to be done with qauntum computing before it can be considered to be a credible threat to blockchain technology.
it will take upto 5 to 10  years to develop 4000+ qubits
in that much time
We may will find a quantum proof way of using bitcoin or developing QT proof technology

While some blockchains were designed to be quantum resistant and will survive the rise of quantum computing in their current form , like iota etc.

quantum computer would need thousands or even millions of qubits to break modern cryptography, but currently, they have less than 100 qubits.

blockchains may can be upgraded as long as all the miners or validators who are running the network agree to implement the upgrade . While blockchain upgrades are extremely rare due to disagreements from independent miners or validators, quantum resistance will be a matter of life or death for blockchain technology.
There is no rational excuse for any miner or validator to refuse a quantum resistance upgrade when the threat of a quantum attack becomes possible.

I suggest to read this :
https://eprint.iacr.org/2021/967.pdf

[Casdinyard]

Everything that has level 1 access security will be vulnerable to quantum computers in the future. Social networking sites, and anything that requires 1 step verification like for instance, cryptocurrency wallets will be at risk of breach and compromise. But think of it this way, surely, when the future comes around and quantum computers become publicly available, there will be measures taken by the IT sector of our future to alleviate and maybe even prevent such attacks. They may even do so before commercially opening the use of quantum computers in the future because let's face it, everyone knows this is going to be a problem. themselves included. So there's no way they wouldn't figure stuff out before implementing such powerful tool.

[headingnorth]

If they could hack bitcoin then they could hack the banking system as well as the government which uses the same underlying technology as bitcoin to secure their customer funds. You think the big banks and government are going to allow that to happen? Modern society and the totally computerized economic system as we know it would collapse.

Every year for over ten years you always hear someone screaming about quantum computers hacking bitcoin, and it's only two years away.
But they said the same crap 10 years ago LMAO.

[HomerF_48]

@cafter With respect, it is incorrect that it will take "5 - 10 years" to develop a 4000+ qubit machine. IBM will have one in 2025 (two years from now), making P2PK public addreses (which are not hashed) vulnerable as I said above. So not all of bitcoin will be vulnerable, true, but plenty of it will be, especially because since Taproot, the real unhashed public keys are left exposed after making a transaction so it is correct that the stop gap solution if one is using bitcoin is not to reuse public address, but this does not address the economic / market issue of loss of confidence that would occur if even one P2PK address were compromised. So this is why it is negligence of the highest order for the BTC devs to be continually dismissing this real problem as "FUD" when it would be an easy matter (a soft fork) to replace ECC with something like a hash-based algorithm which is more secure. Just absolute irresponsibility on the part of the bitcoin leadership.

Source that IBM will have 4,158 qubit machine in 2025 (and they have since 2017 always hit their quantum computing roadmaps, so it needs to be taken with the upmost gravity): https://spectrum.ieee.org/ibm-condor

[TimeTeller]

Everything that has level 1 access security will be vulnerable to quantum computers in the future. Social networking sites, and anything that requires 1 step verification like for instance, cryptocurrency wallets will be at risk of breach and compromise. But think of it this way, surely, when the future comes around and quantum computers become publicly available, there will be measures taken by the IT sector of our future to alleviate and maybe even prevent such attacks. They may even do so before commercially opening the use of quantum computers in the future because let's face it, everyone knows this is going to be a problem. themselves included. So there's no way they wouldn't figure stuff out before implementing such powerful tool.

That is true, before it is getting deployed for public consumption, they already know what to do in terms of security protocols.
It is not that they will just let it out in public without thinking of anything about its impact to security aspect.
There are so many computer or tech geeks, who would willingly work on this potential drawback using quantum computers.
They are not just sleeping on this possible issue. And before we know it, they already come up with tangible solutions.