⭐⚽⭐ Rainbet's Bitcointalk Sports Fanatics League (BSFL) – 13000$ rewards ⭐⚽⭐

[MAAManda]

@MAAManda : only 5 questions between us. Although my chances for promotion are super slim, winning the last round would still be great so best of luck to us !

You don't have chance for promotion, mate. Don't you see the big point gap between your team & @Jinetics1111?

Even if you win this round, that will only give you 27 points. IDK if the team in #4 place gets a play-off spot, I haven't seen it so far or maybe I just missed it, LOL.

BTW, I was surprised to see that we gave the same answer for the Fenerbahçe match question, I was confident I had a one goal lead, but it turned out I didn't. Luckily, it turns out we have different answers for the second question.

Let's go, NEC Nijmegen!!!

[cryptofrka]

Guys, the sponsorship fee for season 10 hasw been received. Therefore, all buyins and prizes for Season 10 will be calculated according to BTC price at time of receiving the funds.

The budget is 9200$ (141.6 mBTC), with an additional ~3700$ in freebets. We'll make the calculations at the end of the season because the penalties are also a part of the budget.

[hosemary]

I need hosemary AI to tell me what's needed for me to win the LMS.

Sorry. hosemary AI can't help. There are too many possibilites now.  

Even if you win this round, that will only give you 27 points. IDK if the team in #4 place gets a play-off spot, I haven't seen it so far or maybe I just missed it, LOL.

arallmuus does have a chance to qualify for the first divsion.
There will be a play-off match between the 4th place player in Division 2 and 15th place player in Division 1.

You can find more information about the promotion/relegation system in the OP.

[mv1986]

I think this round we are about to observe one of the costliest failed submissions ever @Renato297just by not submitting you will drop at least four positions automatically because of that point reduction and then it could get worse if Trofo, el che and ralle14 were to win their rounds. Damn, @Rikafip has the upside of your downside and I wonder how many ranks you will be set apart compared to now just by how this played out. Now it is two positions and then it could certainly be ten positions. Better keep submitting guys! I am not enjoying this, but the penalty system works obviously.

Good to hear @cryptofrka that everything is set. Thanks for that.

@Saint-loup, I don't have it in my own hands, but a win for me and a draw for strongkored would save me into the play-offs. Hope is still there

[MAAManda]

Guys, the sponsorship fee for season 10 hasw been received. Therefore, all buyins and prizes for Season 10 will be calculated according to BTC price at time of receiving the funds.

The budget is 9200$ (141.6 mBTC), with an additional ~3700$ in freebets. We'll make the calculations at the end of the season because the penalties are also a part of the budget.

LFG!!!

arallmuus does have a chance to qualify for the first divsion.
There will be a play-off match between the 4th place player in Division 2 and 15th place player in Division 1.

Yeah, It turns out I really did miss something. So, he's going to the play-off, but before that happens, the captain must first defeat our team in the final round which is not something easy. So, @arallmuus, don't get your hopes up that your team will even make it to the play-off.

[el che]

Not sure if this is correctly calculating the H2H duels though - or if it is 100% legit. Still, was fun to read and I truly hope the leader(s) crash and burn and give others a fair shot.

To calculate the probabilities, a complete combinatorial script simulated every possible real world outcome across the remaining nine questions. Instead of using subjective match odds, every valid combination of sports results was evaluated as an equally weighted scenario within an outcome universe of 110,592 total states.
For standard questions, each match was mapped to its specific set of choices. Three-way matches (like NEC vs Bodø and Kairat vs Anderlecht) had three outcomes, while four-way market options (like Newcastle vs Liverpool) had four. Consensus selections (like Q6 and Q7, where all players picked the same option) were modeled in two states: either everyone scored a point if the outcome occurred, or nobody did if it failed.
The Head-to-Head (H2H) parameters for Q5 and Q8 were calculated relatively against the whole group rather than requiring absolute perfection. For the Copa Libertadores parlay (Q5), all 32 outcome combinations were generated and whichever player achieved the highest score among the group in that specific scenario was awarded +1 H2H point.
For DOTA 2 (Q8), since all participants selected Vision as the winner, the H2H point was awarded strictly to whichever player predicted the second finalist (Liquid, Falcons, or Spirit) in that scenario.
For every scenario, two separate tracks were calculated simultaneously. The Round Score tracked points gained in Q1 through Q10 to apply the Last Man Standing elimination rule (R < 2). Simultaneously, the Total Score added the new points gained in Q2 through Q10 directly to each player's current starting total.
Finally, the script filtered out any players eliminated by the LMS rules in that scenario. The surviving player with the highest Total Score was recorded as the winner. Dividing the number of winning scenarios by the total 110,592 scenarios yielded the exact probability percentage, which was then converted into decimal odds by taking 1 divided by that probability.

Lets do this for all the days of this last round 

Expect it every day after the end of all the games.

[arallmuus]

arallmuus does have a chance to qualify for the first divsion.
There will be a play-off match between the 4th place player in Division 2 and 15th place player in Division 1.

Atleast hosemary AI helps out on this, we can really count you on answering questions regarding rules and such  

So, he's going to the play-off, but before that happens, the captain must first defeat our team in the final round which is not something easy. So, @arallmuus, don't get your hopes up that your team will even make it to the play-off.

On top of winning against you, I need the 3 other players to either lose or draw on their rounds which was why I stated that my chances are super slim. Probably less than 2% to get all the conditions right then even so its still better than having no chance at all

BTW, I was surprised to see that we gave the same answer for the Fenerbahçe match question

Lyon is pretty good on dragging their games so it was obvious choice to go with No there. We got 2 games tonight, I hedged them just in case

[slackovic]

It looks like cygan will earn his first point in this important round. I went with NEC to win and judging by the live score, they are playing good. But Bodo scored the first goal and just scored another one from a penalty. I didn't count how many different answers we have, but it looks like not many.

[un_rank]

Bodo about to give me my first point and an advantage in the tie. I had nothing to go by except their run in the UCL last season, I just felt that should give them an edge here. I also like to go with the away team when the odds are very even as it was in this case,  I interprete the calculations as them having a slight edge.

Malaga may be about to cancel out that lead. I took the risk on them and they held out for a while before they conceded. Hopefully they can pull one back here.

- Jay -

[ILuckyGuyI]

The last round has started really badly for me... I thought Fenerbahçe would win against Lyon. But they literally didn't have any reliable game to show on the pitch. No wonder they got a draw after that!

I was expecting a close game between NEC and Bodø/Glimt. However NEC got destroyed in score despite having the momentum on their side. These 2 have just caused me to get behind 1-3. 

I knew i hadnt to trust the turkish team of Fenerbahce, but they ahve right now one of the best teams i ever see in a medium team from europe, they have ton of big names across the starters and even in the bench,so i think they can beat Lyon in the first game since Lyon lose the away game in the past round against Sparta Praga, but well it ended up in a tie so right now im one point behind my rival.

I don't know man... Fenerbahçe has actually built a really solid squad. But the game plan is just not satisfying. Their coach isn't good enough for the CL arena.

[hosemary]

I wrote some python codes (without any help from AI), and did some calculations for LMS.
According to my calculations, Trofo now has no chance of winning the LMS. If Anderlecht's match ends in a draw, crpytofrka and goodpunt will join Trofo.

Can you confirm these, el che?

[el che]

I wrote some python codes (without any help from AI), and did some calculations for LMS.

According to my calculations, Trofo now has no chance of winning the LMS.

If Anderlecht wins, el che and Heyshbosh will have no chance of winning the LMS.
If Anderlecht's match ends in a draw, crpytofrka and goodpunt will have no chance of winning the LMS.

Can you confirm these, el che?

As of now, this is how things stand. You're right about Trofo, but I'm not so sure about the other possibilities. I picked Anderlecht to win, so I'm not sure how that outcome would eliminate me.

I'll refresh the thread with an updated probability breakdown for every player after tonight's Libertadores matches.

Player	Current Pts	Outright Win % (Odds)	Tied 1st %	Total 1st % (Win or Tie)	Decimal Odds
el che	71	49.15% (2.03)	16.15%	65.30%	1.53
Heyshbosh	70	23.81% (4.20)	12.78%	36.59%	2.73
vd309	69	4.56% (21.93)	8.20%	12.76%	7.84
cryptofrka	68	1.69% (59.17)	2.21%	3.91%	25.60
goodpunt	69	0.72% (138.89)	1.11%	1.82%	54.86
leea-1334	65	0.46% (217.39)	0.00%	0.46%	219.43
Trofo	68	0.00% (Eliminated)	0.00%	0.00%	N/A

[hosemary]

As of now, this is how things stand. You're right about Trofo, but I'm not so sure about the other possibilities. I picked Anderlecht to win, so I'm not sure how that outcome would eliminate me.

I stand corrected.
I was wrong about you and Heyshbosh. The number of scenarios that make you or Heyshbosh win the LMS were too large, and they didn't fit in Pycharm's run window. That was why I made that mistake.

I edited my previous post. Thank you.

[Nheer]

Missed all the actions so far but luckily I am ahead of my opponent. Although we have several different answers so it's far from being over. I already lead with 2 points which is a good start for me in this game. There is no hope of qualification but winning this game will mean a lot to me. I would have added a point if I had trusted Atletico Madrid to win comfortably but 2 points in 3 games so far is a good start, I just hope I don't get dissapointed again.

[el che]

LMS LIVE Standings, Win Probabilities & Odds (Updated)

Big shifts in LMS today! Q2 (Bodø/Glimt to win) and Q3 (Atletico Madrid covering the -1.5 handicap) are officially in the books.

Additionally, the first 3 legs of the Q5 Copa Libertadores parlay are complete:
✅ Palmeiras to win
✅ Coquimbo vs Platense Under 2.5
✅ Flamengo to win

The analysis below has been rigorously recalculated across the 1,536 remaining outcome combinations, fully accounting for the Relative Elimination Floor (if everyone scores 3 or more, the players with the absolute lowest score are eliminated).

Player	Current Pts	Round Pts (So Far)	Outright Win %	Tied 1st %	Total 1st % (Win or Tie)	Decimal Odds
el che	71	2	56.77%	22.79%	79.56%	1.26
vd309	69	3	4.69%	19.53%	24.22%	4.13
Heyshbosh	70	2	10.68%	13.28%	23.96%	4.17
cryptofrka	68	2	0.00%	1.04%	1.04%	96.00
goodpunt	69	2	0.52%	0.26%	0.78%	128.00
leea-1334	65	1	0.00% (Eliminated)	0.00%	0.00%	N/A
Trofo	68	2	0.00% (Eliminated)	0.00%	0.00%	N/A

Updated Paths to 1st Place (What Each Player Needs)

1. el che (71 pts | Odds: 1.26)

• The heavy favorite. Going  2/2 on the Bodo and Atletico games, back into sole possession of 1st place.
• Currently sitting at 3/3 correct for the Copa Libertadores H2H.
• Avoiding LMS elimination floor results in victory in nearly 80% of all remaining combinations.

2. vd309 (69 pts | Odds: 4.13)

• Quietly making a massive run. He is the only player to secure 3 points in this round so far.
• Key scenario: The entire path to victory rides on McLaren winning the Dutch GP (Q9 - Yes). Because he is the only player to pick 'Yes', a McLaren victory creates a massive point swing. If Mercedes or anyone else wins, his chances essentially drop to zero.
  
  

3. Heyshbosh (70 pts | Odds: 4.17)

• Missing the Bodo win was a massive blow, but he isn't dead yet.
• Key scenario: He desperately needs Q4 to end in a Draw (present in 70% of his winning paths) to claw back a differential point against el che. He also heavily relies on Falcons making the Dota 2 final and Newcastle playing out an Under 2.5 match against Liverpool.
  
  

4. cryptofrka (68 pts | Odds: 96.00)

• Alive purely for a Tie scenario.
• Key scenario: Requires Kairat to win (Q4) and 'Newcastle not to lose, Over 2.5' (Q10) combined with a low-scoring round from the current leaders to drag them into the elimination zone.

5. goodpunt (69 pts | Odds: 128.00)

• Missing Q3 (Atletico exact 1-goal difference) cratered his win percentage.
• Key scenario: Because he has the exact same Q5 Copa Libertadores picks as el che, he cannot gain ground there. He strictly requires Team Falcons in the Dota 2 final (Q8 - 100% mandatory) and Anderlecht to win, while hoping el che is eliminated by the LMS relative floor rule.

6. leea-1334 (65 pts) & Trofo (68 pts)

• Officially mathematically eliminated from finishing 1st. leea-1334 missed the Flamengo game (Q5), making it impossible to catch the 71-point threshold, while Trofo picking a Draw in Q2 means he can no longer generate enough differential points to catch el che.

[goodpunt]

Great! Thank you very much Lee Kang-in for the opener -_-
I always knew that you have no respect for your seniors like me!

Can't catch up with the LMS leader anymore, but I still think my super differential was worth a try (better to say this than to say that I absolutely regret it ).
I of course covered the -1.5 handicap - could have been more profit if I didn't back Fenerbahce the day before.

The Division 2 title will be decided in F1! I hope that Ferrari or McLaren will get the most points.

[cygan]

It looks like cygan will earn his first point in this important round. I went with NEC to win and judging by the live score, they are playing good. But Bodo scored the first goal and just scored another one from a penalty. I didn't count how many different answers we have, but it looks like not many.

unfortunately, that's not how it turned out, and bodo/glimt won the game decisively.
since we predicted the same outcome for the atlético game, the score is now 2-2, and everything is still up in the air...
btw i'm also following the results/answers from hakan2217 and his opponent russeras and things are still looking exciting there, too...

[slackovic]

unfortunately, that's not how it turned out, and bodo/glimt won the game decisively.
since we predicted the same outcome for the atlético game, the score is now 2-2, and everything is still up in the air...
btw i'm also following the results/answers from hakan2217 and his opponent russeras and things are still looking exciting there, too...

Oh, right. You went with a draw in the NEC-Bodo game. When I saw that I lost that point, I automatically expected you to get it. I forgot to see what was your answer Anyway, you have a one point head start in the 5th question. I can only get a draw in that question if Corinthiands doesn't win against Rosario. The round should get interesting now because we have five more different answers.

As for my opponents in the battle for 1st place, it looks like LFC_Bitcoin handed 1st place to HomieAllDay because he didn't submit his answers. This automatically gives HomieAllDay a free 3 points and a +3 goal difference. It really shows how unfair it is to the other competitors when someone doesn't send in their answers. But it is what it is. At least I'll do my best to finish in the top 3 to secure direct promotion to Division 2.

[Rikafip]

If mafia should end up winning, you know it's part of the script right ? a well executed one at that.

Ain't easy going against them, but I did all I could do. And that's what counts the most in the end.

I hope the offer was more than 20% of his currently prize, because he'd have his prize for the season reduced by 20% as penalty  

No worries, he has been well taken care off. 

[leea-1334]

So I am eliminated from LMS,,, how not so nice for me. I know it does not look good for some others but I will choose to throw my support into the next 'impossible' win which is @goodpunt. May the luck of RTG gold be with you 

But I think a new LMS winner is also a nice thing to have so go win it all new faces!