⭐⚽⭐ Rainbet's Bitcointalk Sports Fanatics League (BSFL) – 13000$ rewards ⭐⚽⭐

[Trofo]

leea-1334 and el che won 100$ freebets which will be credited at the beginning of next week.

These are now credited. GL guys, win big and make it rain here 

Fellas, last tag for the last round of the season.. I'm going to take a very long time trying to find small edges somewhere.

Last round, I am not complicating, answered everything by heart. Surely I can't do worse then last few rounds when I tried with research  Famous last words probably.

[Koal-84]

in the league, that would be really important to me
to make that happen, i submitted my 10 answers for the final and decisive round a few minutes ago. i'm really curious to see how many of them will differ from the others.

Yes, this is really a crucial round for you and me. If things go well for you and you get a bit of luck with your opponents results as well, you might not even have to play in the relegation matches. I’m definitely keeping my fingers crossed for you, bro.

I guess I should be happy to get a freebet, which is actually worth more than 1mbtc right now, but it remains to be seen if I can actually turn it into cash,,, and using Rainbet requirements.

It has been about 5 reds in a row for me for freebets on Rainbet but I guess this is the best time to put it to my good luck.

Yes, it is absolutely true that the freebet is worth more than my actual winnings. However, I still see it as a positive outcome because I managed to double my original entry fee. That alone is already a good result and shows that the tournament was worthwhile for me. Unfortunately, I did not have much luck with the last free bets I received, so I hope things go better this time for you. I’m also keeping my fingers crossed for you and hope that you can double your free bet right away or even turn it into something bigger.

[darxiaomi]

The day has come and we are gonna see who is gonna be the winner in each division and in LMS, is gonna be a hard round for everyone involved in each fight, i can feel a few guys risking it all because it is what they have to do to have a chance of winning, and other playing super conservatite since it is what they have to do.

In my case im gonna be sitting in the grades seeing from outside all the fight.

[goodpunt]

I can't believe what I'm doing here.....I am waiting for the whole BSFL spreadsheet to be visible
It's not that I sleep at this time anyway, but still.

All I can hope is that I can position myself in a good LMS striking position to place some nice hedge bets to green up

[buwaytress]

I'll probably end up losing the duel and losing in LMS but that's the beauty of it, eh?

Nothing as dastardly desperate as lil ol me though, hoping for a nice win to secure a comfortable spot in Div2, but with my luck, I could still slip into relegation, we'll probably know before the weekend.

DOTA picks are gnarrrly.

[Harkorede]

The day has come and we are gonna see who is gonna be the winner in each division and in LMS, is gonna be a hard round for everyone involved in each fight, i can feel a few guys risking it all because it is what they have to do to have a chance of winning, and other playing super conservatite since it is what they have to do.

In my case im gonna be sitting in the grades seeing from outside all the fight.

Spreadsheet is up, answers are live!

There are 4 different questions between myself and darxiaomi, starting with Fenerbahce and Lyon where I have Lyon not to lose, I would say my decision was heavily influenced by the result over the weekend from Fenerbahce, and coupled with the fact that they didn't appear to be very convincing in the last round either, but playing at home could spell trouble for me.

Good luck!

[arallmuus]

All I can hope is that I can position myself in a good LMS striking position to place some nice hedge bets to green up

If I have to pick one person out of everyone left on LMS, I will pick you to win for sure. Your lucks are really off the chart. You won World Cup RTG, 1st place in division and secured direct promotion even if you lose the last round so I wouldnt be surprised if you ended up winning LMS as well.


Its a weird situation on div 2 right now, only 1 spot left for potential promotion with 6 people fighting for it but realistically speaking only 3 gets a decent chance on it

@MAAManda : only 5 questions between us. Although my chances for promotion are super slim, winning the last round would still be great so best of luck to us !

[cryptofrka]

I need hosemary AI to tell me what's needed for me to win the LMS.
I won't even calculate until the weekend, I thought there would be more 'Yes' in the F1 and felt that my 'Falcons' pick would be the differential - apparently not.

From what I can initially scan, it is of huge importance to me that Palmeiras does not win their game.

Good luck fellas, and Rikafip - how much did you pay for these 3 points?

[Jinetics1111]

I need hosemary AI to tell me what's needed for me to win the LMS.
I won't even calculate until the weekend, I thought there would be more 'Yes' in the F1 and felt that my 'Falcons' pick would be the differential - apparently not.

From what I can initially scan, it is of huge importance to me that Palmeiras does not win their game.

Good luck fellas, and Rikafip - how much did you pay for these 3 points?

Russell hasn't been in the greatest form him and his car so that's most likely why plus who knows what we'll get after the break too.

[Smartvirus]

A good start for me this round. I just knew Fenerbahce wasn’t a team you would expect to get a win from the likes of Lyon. They’ve not shown much resilience in the pre-season games and Lyon through last season in the Ligue 1 was phenomenal and having to expect anything less of a draw in this game would be a mistake.

Hope you let me win this round mate @Ajanwalker, I suppose our duel from Div 4 continues with this last round in Div 3. We don’t have much for differentials though, barely 3 questions including the H2H to make the cut.

[el che]

LMS Final Round: Standings, Win Probabilities & Decimal Odds

Analysis done by AI has calculated all 110,592 possible outcome combinations taking into account the LMS elimination threshold (R <= 2), relative elimination floor adjustments and Head-to-Head (H2H) scoring parameters.

PLAYER	POINTS	OUTRIGHT WIN %	TIED 1ST %	TOTAL CHANCE TO BE 1ST	DECIMAL ODDS
Heyshbosh	69	42.94%	15.85%	58.79%	1.70
el che	69	21.96%	16.03%	38.00%	2.63
goodpunt	68	6.64%	14.71%	21.34%	4.69
vd309	67	2.16%	6.35%	8.51%	11.75
Trofo	67	0.37%	0.91%	1.28%	78.21
cryptofrka	66	0.26%	0.94%	1.20%	83.53
leea-1334	64	0.10%	0.00%	0.10%	1005.38

ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL PATHS TO VICTORY

el che (Current: 69 pts | Q1 Round Score: 0)
Primary drivers in winning scenarios:
  - Q2 requires 'bodo' to win (Present in 51.8% of top finishes)
  - Q4 requires 'anderlecht' to win (Present in 45.4% of top finishes)
  - Q8 requires 'liquid' as Team 2 (Present in 47.3% of top finishes)
  - Q10 requires 'Liverpool, over 2,5' (Present in 42.0% of top finishes)
*Notes: Already sits at a 1-point disadvantage in the current round due to Q1 (Fenerbahçe Draw). Relies heavily on Bodø/Glimt and Anderlecht avoiding upsets to claw back points against Heyshbosh.*

Heyshbosh (Current: 69 pts | Q1 Round Score: 1)
Primary drivers in winning scenarios:
  - Q2 requires 'draw' (Present in 47.4% of top finishes)
  - Q4 requires 'draw' (Present in 47.5% of top finishes)
*Notes: Currently holds the mathematical high ground thanks to securing the Q1 point. If underdog picks (Draws in Q2 and Q4) land, it immediately neutralizes the closest chasers (el che & goodpunt) who both picked the favorites.*

goodpunt (Current: 68 pts | Q1 Round Score: 1)
Primary drivers in winning scenarios:
  - Q3 requires 'exact' 1 goal difference (Present in 76.1% of top finishes)
  - Q4 requires 'anderlecht' to win (Present in 50.0% of top finishes)
  - Q8 requires 'falcons' as Team 2 (Present in 40.6% of top finishes)
*Notes: Q3 is the ultimate chokepoint. Because all other realistic contenders chose the Atletico handicap, an exact 1-goal victory for Atletico Madrid swings a massive differential point in goodpunt's favor.*

vd309 (Current: 67 pts | Q1 Round Score: 1)
Primary drivers in winning scenarios:
  - Q9 requires 'yes' (McLaren F1 Win) (Present in 97.5% of top finishes)
  - Q4 requires 'anderlecht' to win (Present in 46.1% of top finishes)
*Notes: Almost strictly requires McLaren to win the Dutch GP. Since everyone else chose 'No', this is the only realistic lever vd309 has to close the 2-point gap on the leaders while surviving elimination.*

Trofo (Current: 67 pts | Q1 Round Score: 1)
Primary drivers in winning scenarios:
  - Q2 requires 'draw' (Present in 66.8% of top finishes)
  - Q4 requires 'anderlecht' to win (Present in 75.5% of top finishes)
*Notes: Differs from el che by picking 'Draw' in Q2. Requires high-variance chaos (e.g., Malaga not losing) to push top players into the elimination bracket via the LMS minimum score rule.*

cryptofrka (Current: 66 pts | Q1 Round Score: 0)
Primary drivers in winning scenarios:
  - Q10 requires 'Newcastle, over 2.5' (Present in 87.9% of top finishes)
  - Q3 requires 'handicap' (Present in 63.4% of top finishes)
*Notes: Starting with 0 points from Q1 heavily suppresses win probability. Must hit the highly contrarian 'Newcastle, over 2.5' pick, combined with a total collapse from the 69-point leaders to force a mass elimination event.*

leea-1334 (Current: 64 pts | Q1 Round Score: 0)
Primary drivers in winning scenarios:
  - Q8 requires 'spirit' as Team 2 (Present in 100.0% of top finishes)
  - Q4 requires 'kairat' to win (Present in 70.9% of top finishes)
*Notes: Requires a "perfect storm." Team Spirit must make the DOTA 2 finals (exclusive H2H point) and Kairat must win outright. Furthermore, the overall round must be extremely low-scoring across the board so that the leaders fall below the elimination threshold.*


P.S. Odds are included above for anyone looking to place some side action. I'm sure the cro2 mafia is already setting up a stall to be the official bookmakers

[Rikafip]

Rikafip - how much did you pay for these 3 points?

I gave him an offer he couldn't refuse.

It was a perfect opportunity really, as these 3 points didn't mean much to Renato297, since he had already secured his stay in Div 1 and couldn't move much higher.

[goodpunt]

Nice! We did it! We achieved guaranteed promotion to Division 1!
There was a slight risk that it was mathematically possible to finish outside the top 3.
Really don't want to brag.....but to achieve promotion 3x in a row is quite a feat (OK looks like bragging to me).

If I have to pick one person out of everyone left on LMS, I will pick you to win for sure. Your lucks are really off the chart. You won World Cup RTG, 1st place in division and secured direct promotion even if you lose the last round so I wouldnt be surprised if you ended up winning LMS as well.

I obviously wouldn't mind a final push of luck to win LMS
My odds of 4.69 (thanks el che for the analysis) look quite decent....but I wouldn't back myself!

[Harkorede]

Rikafip - how much did you pay for these 3 points?

I gave him an offer he couldn't refuse.

as these 3 points didn't mean much to Renato297, since he had already secured his stay in Div 1 and couldn't move much higher.

I hope the offer was more than 20% of his currently prize, because he'd have his prize for the season reduced by 20% as penalty  

_________________

All hope isn't lost for my team yet, mere looking at the table, If Trofo and Saintloup do win their matches, with which we share a decent number of similar answers, then I should be in good position to win my match as well, and get in shot to avoid relegation through play-offs..

[leea-1334]

leea-1334 (Current: 64 pts | Q1 Round Score: 0)
Primary drivers in winning scenarios:
  - Q8 requires 'spirit' as Team 2 (Present in 100.0% of top finishes)
  - Q4 requires 'kairat' to win (Present in 70.9% of top finishes)
*Notes: Requires a "perfect storm." Team Spirit must make the DOTA 2 finals (exclusive H2H point) and Kairat must win outright. Furthermore, the overall round must be extremely low-scoring across the board so that the leaders fall below the elimination threshold.*

Thank you for the putting together of all this,,, I actually calculated also myself what my odds were of winning every round in BSFL during the early stages and you know what, they got my odds always high and mostly wrong

Also I tried last season with chatgpt a few round in Serie A and made my own picks to track first few and I also beat it, so I think bookmakers are using very different calculations,,, no way anybody would go against me for 1000x odds, or even 100x

Anybody want $10 from me for 200x odds?

Lets do this for all the days of this last round 

[paco92x]

Last round is here. I play against the legendary Hhampuz. He has nowhere to go having already secured Div. 2 survival, so I think he is going easy on me . Hhampuz didn't wish you luck for this round, so good luck, my man. Even though it is already 1:0, we still have a lot of different outcomes to play for.

[cryptofrka]

Analysis done by AI has calculated all 110,592 possible outcome combinations taking into account the LMS elimination threshold (R <= 2), relative elimination floor adjustments and Head-to-Head (H2H) scoring parameters.

Holy hell man, how much did it take for the analysis?
Not sure if this is correctly calculating the H2H duels though - or if it is 100% legit. Still, was fun to read and I truly hope the leader(s) crash and burn and give others a fair shot.

Yesterday's Fener draw hurts - initially I had Lyon not to lose and changed it because I felt most would go with Lyon - and I liked it as a differential.
At the end, not that many chose Lyon not to lose and it would have been an important LMS point for me, as well as a lead in an important league duel.

It's truly tough to play when chasing.. Especially 2 things in parallel.

[arallmuus]

There was a slight risk that it was mathematically possible to finish outside the top 3.

According to my own calculation its impossible

Assuming you lose on all 3 questions between you and your opponent, thats -3 SD. Spack only has 2 different answers with his opponent so thats +2 if he wins all of it. Under this conditions, if you lose and he wins then you will both have 29 points but you will retain the 3rd spot due to higher SD (6 SD difference)

Rough calculation but I this should be correct

My odds of 4.69

This would be fun if we could bet on LMS, well good luck

[darxiaomi]

I knew i hadnt to trust the turkish team of Fenerbahce, but they ahve right now one of the best teams i ever see in a medium team from europe, they have ton of big names across the starters and even in the bench,so i think they can beat Lyon in the first game since Lyon lose the away game in the past round against Sparta Praga, but well it ended up in a tie so right now im one point behind my rival.

[goodpunt]

There was a slight risk that it was mathematically possible to finish outside the top 3.

According to my own calculation its impossible

Assuming you lose on all 3 questions between you and your opponent, thats -3 SD. Spack only has 2 different answers with his opponent so thats +2 if he wins all of it. Under this conditions, if you lose and he wins then you will both have 29 points but you will retain the 3rd spot due to higher SD (6 SD difference)

Rough calculation but I this should be correct

There was a slight possibility before the spreadsheet was visible.
In my worst-case scenario (which I drew in my head) Vasha could have battered me with 10-3, while Spack wins 7-2 and the others draw.
After I checked the spreadsheet everything was of course clear and also the reason why I was relieved.

I always go for the worst case scenario before I celebrate.....had my fair share of surprises in gambling.