If history repeats itself: 2023 vs 2019

[dragonvslinux]

More or less still tracking the 2019 fractal with a month delay. Bitcoin had another impulsive move after finding support from 200 Day MA post golden cross, this time it was +30% rather than +20%:



Price is now coming close to the 0.236 fib retracement level around $28K which was the initial capitulation level that would need to be reclaimed in order to confirm (further) U-shaped bottom. While many expect some consolidation or pull-back from here, typically after breaking key resistance (in this case $25K) and reversing a long-term bearish trend, Bitcoin usually continues it's parabolic run as opposed to consolidates.

Am otherwise not convinced price will get rejected by $30K if high volume is to follow and instead more likely to get to around $34K to $36K (previous support zone) before seeing a notable correction. This is based on a continuation of an impulsive move that previously in 2019 was an initial +70% to the upside from low to high prior to a pull-back and consolidation. $36K is also the +50% measured move target from inverse head & shoulders pattern after breaking $25K. This all remains very theoretical until $30K is reached, but so far the +24% this week remains a strong move, even if lacking break-out volume.

At some other point I'll present arguments for price topping out in the short-term around $40K before returning to $30K, prior to eventually getting to $50K, either later in the year or early next year.

[huu78]

the question is whether the sector or bitcoin holders from 2019 are still the same, as well as a lot of news or new things that are adopting bitcoin, if history is going to repeat itself then people should be patient waiting for that, but what we see here we also have to pay attention to the surrounding conditions because it also has an impact on the crypto market, such as the big news of the Russia-Ukraine war, then the SVB collapsing recently.

[fzkto]

the question is whether the sector or bitcoin holders from 2019 are still the same, as well as a lot of news or new things that are adopting bitcoin, if history is going to repeat itself then people should be patient waiting for that, but what we see here we also have to pay attention to the surrounding conditions because it also has an impact on the crypto market, such as the big news of the Russia-Ukraine war, then the SVB collapsing recently.

I don't think it matters if bitcoin holders are left over from 2019 or not. What is being compared is the price chart, which tends to repeat itself sometimes. So for now we can say that the 2019 fractal has started to repeat. But no one knows what kind of continuation the chart will have. In 2019 there was no crisis or even a covid, the economy was stronger than now.

[Lubang Bawah]

Bitcoin trends often repeat themselves with interesting patterns, of course we must understand that the patterns that occur are of course in accordance with market conditions, the average daily transaction volume of more than $ 40 billion makes us believe that no one controls prices, so accusations that prices are manipulated or controlled by several people or exchanges then the news is a lie.

[dragonvslinux]

Have updated OP now price has reached $30K, which is currently the level for confirming a U-shaped recovery based on 2019 fractal.



Interestingly enough the 3 weeks of consolidation looks a lot more like the consolidation in April 2019 around $5K prior to breaking $6K than the previous consolidation around $25K. As with previous bull flag style consolidation around $25k, price instead broke to the downside back to $20K. Whereas the recent consolidation under $29K has instead broken to the upside, similar to in April 2019.

Despite many still thinking that a $50K target sometime this year is too high, it instead could be too low, with instead the target being re-testing the highs around $60K prior to a considerable correction:



I only reference this in-case we see a quick move to $40K in the coming days / next week, then it could well suggest a quick break-out to $40K could lead to a parabolic move to $60K rather than $50K, as realistically it should take longer to break-through $40K than a matter of days or a week, if the target is around $50K, which for now remains on schedule for May/June this year.

The black-swan style capitulation to $20K (above fractal) can be ignored, but I think if the highs can be re-tested then a return to at minimum $30K remains likely. History rarely repeats itself, but it often rhymes.

[Pierre 2]

Great thread here. I was honestly considering this but I wasn't exactly using indicators but only checking "halving trackers" on twitter and trusting my feels. I feel like we will definitely hit 38k-40k from now on as OP suggested. But I am still thinking about sudden retesting around there. I am trying to find a place to sell some of my coins to reenter but it feels too risky eventually. 60k seems too unrealistic to me, I mean can we pull that much attention to crypto now when rates are damn high? But in long run I guess many investors are gonna be happy. Everything seem positive for hodler.

[justdimin]

Great thread here. I was honestly considering this but I wasn't exactly using indicators but only checking "halving trackers" on twitter and trusting my feels. I feel like we will definitely hit 38k-40k from now on as OP suggested. But I am still thinking about sudden retesting around there. I am trying to find a place to sell some of my coins to reenter but it feels too risky eventually. 60k seems too unrealistic to me, I mean can we pull that much attention to crypto now when rates are damn high? But in long run I guess many investors are gonna be happy. Everything seem positive for hodler.

That is something I considered as well, I mean think about it we are talking about a situation that is making us profit thanks to going up, and going up alone. So, I wanted to see how the year is looking and how we could increase, I think this type of increase is likely and we will probably see 40k this year.

It is already above 30k and we are not even at summer yet, we have more than half of the year remaining and we are already nearly at double since the start, this should provide a proof that we will be doing fine. A lot of people do not consider this as a big deal, but I find it a big deal, doubling within 4 months means that we should be able to do a lot better for the rest of the year and reach a big high price.

[dragonvslinux]

Great thread here. I was honestly considering this but I wasn't exactly using indicators but only checking "halving trackers" on twitter and trusting my feels. I feel like we will definitely hit 38k-40k from now on as OP suggested. But I am still thinking about sudden retesting around there. I am trying to find a place to sell some of my coins to reenter but it feels too risky eventually. 60k seems too unrealistic to me, I mean can we pull that much attention to crypto now when rates are damn high? But in long run I guess many investors are gonna be happy. Everything seem positive for hodler.

That is something I considered as well, I mean think about it we are talking about a situation that is making us profit thanks to going up, and going up alone. So I wanted to see how the year is looking and how we could increase, I think this type of increase is likely and we will probably see 40k this year.

Generally speaking based on the previous to bear market recoveries of 2015 and 2019, then $40K would be a relatively "fair average" to reach this year, while ending the year around $30K.

If price consolidates sideways for a year like in 2015, then we'd basically be in a range between $30K and $15K, ending the year around $30K. Whereas if price has a strong recovery to the 0.618 retracement like in 2019, the target would be around $50K, before a correction back down to around $30K. Ironically both scenarios leaves price at around $30K by the end of the year, unless something completely different occurs.

It is already above 30k and we are not even at summer yet, we have more than half of the year remaining and we are already nearly at double since the start, this should provide a proof that we will be doing fine. A lot of people do not consider this as a big deal, but I find it a big deal, doubling within 4 months means that we should be able to do a lot better for the rest of the year and reach a big high price.

I wouldn't say reaching $30K is enough to prove price is doing fine, price needs to break this previous long-term support level between $29K and $32K and at the moment we are merely surviving within it. It still remains more than possible that price gets a strong rejection here and returns to the lows, even if new lows aren't made and it wouldn't be until 2024 that we see $30K level again!

I however think it's more likely to reach $40K or $50K purely as I think the idea of a 2015 style 1 year sideways consolidation is a bit outdated for Bitcoin these days.

[Baoo]

Many thanks OP,  you have made a great effort to create this thread and it is really interesting but regarding the comparison of charts between 2019 and 2023, I completely disagree although they could be similar but only in temporary periods due to market’s condition changes frequently, the numbers of investors as well , whales and crypto traders…etc  . My point of view is the history is impossible to be completely repeated especially when it comes to Bitcoin. From 2019 to 2023 ,  a plenty of different events have happened. It had started with the global economic crisis due to the effect of Covid virus, the price decreased to less than $10k and then we had seen the bull run when Elon musk has invested in crypto and manipulated the whole market.

[STT]

It wont go upto as far as 40k this month, I believe if we refer back to prior lows on the weekly chart each bar in most months of 2022 aligns with a price in the mid 30's.  That sudden appearance of prior volume should be enough to hit the buffers for this particular run up in price action for BTC.
   If anything if we were to move too far past that point it'd halt there and retreat downwards more violently I think.  Better to run in loops of a predictable orbit that doesnt throw off too many people, not too erratic or volatile that it roughs up traders with sudden changes in price like harsh Monday sells etc.

[Fatunad]

Many thanks OP,  you have made a great effort to create this thread and it is really interesting but regarding the comparison of charts between 2019 and 2023, I completely disagree although they could be similar but only in temporary periods due to market’s condition changes frequently, the numbers of investors as well , whales and crypto traders…etc  . My point of view is the history is impossible to be completely repeated especially when it comes to Bitcoin. From 2019 to 2023 ,  a plenty of different events have happened. It had started with the global economic crisis due to the effect of Covid virus, the price decreased to less than $10k and then we had seen the bull run when Elon musk has invested in crypto and manipulated the whole market.

Manipulation is never been new considering that this is evident on other markets which its not really that shocking anymore.I do agree about those changes been mentioned which we could really tell that this is something
that would really be similar in speaking about repeating on the same path or behavior on where prices could eventually go. Yes, they might be sharing up on the same movement or path but there's
no way that we could tell that it would really be precisely just the same on what we are seeing now. Charts could be compared and we could make out some comparison and able to
look those similarities but it would really be just staying up on that point only.

[AmoreJaz]

Many thanks OP,  you have made a great effort to create this thread and it is really interesting but regarding the comparison of charts between 2019 and 2023, I completely disagree although they could be similar but only in temporary periods due to market’s condition changes frequently, the numbers of investors as well , whales and crypto traders…etc  . My point of view is the history is impossible to be completely repeated especially when it comes to Bitcoin. From 2019 to 2023 ,  a plenty of different events have happened. It had started with the global economic crisis due to the effect of Covid virus, the price decreased to less than $10k and then we had seen the bull run when Elon musk has invested in crypto and manipulated the whole market.

that's my take on this. we may find few similarities in the graphs, however, the situation today is different from few years ago. the adoption itself is different in numbers. big news and other crises that we have experienced after 2019, that's a lot to change the course of the market. maybe, we can refer from its past performance, but it doesn't mean we will rely from it for our future plans. that's actually not very smart to do.

[dragonvslinux]

Many thanks OP,  you have made a great effort to create this thread and it is really interesting but regarding the comparison of charts between 2019 and 2023, I completely disagree although they could be similar but only in temporary periods due to market’s condition changes frequently, the numbers of investors as well , whales and crypto traders…etc  . My point of view is the history is impossible to be completely repeated especially when it comes to Bitcoin. From 2019 to 2023 ,  a plenty of different events have happened. It had started with the global economic crisis due to the effect of Covid virus, the price decreased to less than $10k and then we had seen the bull run when Elon musk has invested in crypto and manipulated the whole market.

that's my take on this. we may find few similarities in the graphs, however, the situation today is different from few years ago. the adoption itself is different in numbers. big news and other crises that we have experienced after 2019, that's a lot to change the course of the market. maybe, we can refer from its past performance, but it doesn't mean we will rely from it for our future plans. that's actually not very smart to do.

As far as I can tell, the adoption in numbers reflected by Bitcoin addresses continues to increase. It's just no reflected in price, as per usual with funamentals. Overall every cycle has been different, especially the recovery years, whether it be sideways for a year or a sharp relief rally followed by a sudden drop. The point of the topic is that at present, price is following 2019 rather than 2015 right now.

Of course if price were to crash back down to $15K, there would be more of an argument for price following 2015 style consolidation for a year, as opposed to a parabolic relief rally. As I've said previously, if we are to take the average of 2015 and 2019 consolidation years, then price would only reach $40K and likely end the year at around current prices based on both fractals combined.

[Unbunplease]

Yes, in my opinion, the history of 2019 is now repeating itself, but it is unlikely to repeat itself completely. November 2021 was similar to November 2017, but December 2021 was completely different. History repeats itself to a certain point, but at some point it changes dramatically.

[SquallLeonhart]

Generally speaking based on the previous to bear market recoveries of 2015 and 2019, then $40K would be a relatively "fair average" to reach this year, while ending the year around $30K.

If price consolidates sideways for a year like in 2015, then we'd basically be in a range between $30K and $15K, ending the year around $30K. Whereas if price has a strong recovery to the 0.618 retracement like in 2019, the target would be around $50K, before a correction back down to around $30K. Ironically both scenarios leaves price at around $30K by the end of the year, unless something completely different occurs.

I think it is more than enough to provide proof that it is doing fine. People expect so much from bitcoin, we are nearly at the double price of the bottom, what else do you want it to be? If you really want to see it break over ATH then maybe that is not enough for you but the reality is that we are talking about something that is already going great.

This is why I believe that we shouldn't really consider this as a problem, being in 30k is great and we should already start celebrating about it, sure if it goes higher that would make me even happier but as long as it doesn't go down anymore then I would be happy about it no matter what. This is the way we should approach it for our mental health and be happy all the time.

[dragonvslinux]

Generally speaking based on the previous to bear market recoveries of 2015 and 2019, then $40K would be a relatively "fair average" to reach this year, while ending the year around $30K.

If price consolidates sideways for a year like in 2015, then we'd basically be in a range between $30K and $15K, ending the year around $30K. Whereas if price has a strong recovery to the 0.618 retracement like in 2019, the target would be around $50K, before a correction back down to around $30K. Ironically both scenarios leaves price at around $30K by the end of the year, unless something completely different occurs.

I think it is more than enough to provide proof that it is doing fine. People expect so much from bitcoin, we are nearly at the double price of the bottom, what else do you want it to be? If you really want to see it break over ATH then maybe that is not enough for you but the reality is that we are talking about something that is already going great.

It's not to do with what I want to do happen, it's simply based on what I think are the possibilities that will happen. I see either $50K as likely or consolidating between $15K and $30K as a possibility. Somewhere in between would be reaching $40K before a pull-back. Sure I'd benefit from taking profit around $50K, but if there is instead consolidation until next year I'd also be more than happy with that result.

This is why I believe that we shouldn't really consider this as a problem, being in 30k is great and we should already start celebrating about it, sure if it goes higher that would make me even happier but as long as it doesn't go down anymore then I would be happy about it no matter what. This is the way we should approach it for our mental health and be happy all the time.

Personally I don't see reaching $30K as anything to celebrate, but more so that this was the likely outcome by Q2 this year, whether price reached $10K or $12K or not. Instead I'd be disappointed if we hadn't reached $30K this year, because this would suggest there is something fundamentally wrong about Bitcoin. Instead, Bitcoin has confirmed itself as a cyclical asset that isn't affected by much else apart from itself.

[FUCKBSVFUCK]

I think we need to start with the same analysis as the rest of the year, and the last two are mostly similar and still in 2018, 2019 and 2018. And there's no way to make any conclusion about what will end up in future periods of time, the main difference being that if you think about the future we would still consider 2018 for a bull market, even with just a little more time, that would be too small, if you look at it from the start. 
 
So, again we'll assume that the 2018 was 2018, so I think it may not last long. 
 
So, I'd go with the latter, in order to just compare the two in terms of a bullish market or bear market like the last two have shown.

[shinratensei_]

aside from the chart, I think we should also know that the 2019 bullrun was mainly motivated with institutional investors and big investment company putting their fund massively into the cryptocurrency and also participate heavily in the developing of the ecosystem, heck even samsung are also participating in developing platform or an app for cryptocurrencies back then.
it was massive, and every companies are try ahead to make investment bigger than the other company in cryptocurrency which also cause the bitcoin price to sky rocket really high and eventually luna collapse and series of big cryptocurrency company collapse ends this bullruns.
I wonder if the history gonna repeats itself once again I wonder what kind of thing gonna motivate the next bullrun, bitcoin having bullrun again is most certainly possible but the money needs to come from somewhere.

[Sir Legend]

If we look at the chart then bitcoin often makes repeated price patterns, for example is a fantastic rising trend that occurs every 4 years then drops the following year, this of course makes it easier for us to guess the price that will occur next, of course not 100% accurate but be a big picture that the trend will continue to repeat itself.

[wxa7115]

If we look at the chart then bitcoin often makes repeated price patterns, for example is a fantastic rising trend that occurs every 4 years then drops the following year, this of course makes it easier for us to guess the price that will occur next, of course not 100% accurate but be a big picture that the trend will continue to repeat itself.

This pattern is very obvious, but at the same time if we take a look at the previous bull runs we will notice that the strength of those trends is getting weaker and the volatility is going down as well, something that is not bad because this could attract other investors that may not like such high volatility.

So it is likely that the next bull run is not going to be nowhere near as intense as the previous ones, a thing that will not affect investors too much, but it could force traders which have high goals during that particular part of the cycle to take additional risks during that period and trade shitcoins or use leverage at the time.