Bitcoin - is the bottom in?

[JamesDaniel90]

I know that none of us know for sure but I am curious to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?




Just to add, I am going to go with yes the bottom is in.

I do think we will crash again however to similar levels just not as low as the low we saw on the 21st November last year.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

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[Oshosondy]

If what that happened last time did not happen this time, I am not expecting bitcoin to go below $17000 to $20000, because it was the FTX FUD that plunged bitcoin to $15500.

But for anyone that do not have the mind to sell bitcoin soon but waiting for months or years before selling, the person can buy now or start DCA which is better.

[Zaguru12]

First of all this should be in Speculation board and also you should rather merge the both posts together.
The bitcoin recovery is moving on smoothly but we can’t be all optimistic, because there are economical factors that still affects it. Should there be recession talks again it would affect it. But the most important thing to note is that any saga like the FTX could be disastrous like the late November crash, possibly any top exchange been hacked or something of such.

Visit the speculation board and to read about these. There multiples of similar threads there

[arwin100]

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?

Two answers maybe need to consider and here are my takes.

Maybe yes since bitcoin is showing good signs of recovery so maybe at this time we might see a continuous slow progress until we see the pump like those crazy ones the same happen on the past.

Also maybe not since not all the time we see the bullish trend continue to exist and provably after some sort of pump happen the pull back came so you need to be more careful on your expectation especially when you decide to buy and the market dump since this is the start of how people lose their money. So better take precautions and always careful on decisions especially on buying on what price you like.

[fadhilz123]

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

My take on that is that it doesn't have to be another crash to see a true bull run in Bitcoin, because the next Bitcoin halving does come on its own when the time comes and the upside doesn't necessarily have to start at the bottom. But if indeed Bitcoin will experience an increase in price due to being driven by more buying volume this year, I don't think there will be another crash for Bitcoin this year although it cannot be accurately confirmed for Bitcoin this year either.

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?

It all still always depends on the amount of demand and supply that often occurs in the market because increases and decreases cannot be regulated by our own minds. But it can happen through changes in demand and supply in the market, so expect that there will be more demand for Bitcoin so that the increase can occur more quickly this year.

[AverageGlabella]

No one knows when the bottom is in but we have been trying to beat the 25000 resistance for a few weeks and we finally did it but a small correction occurred. We still need to beat that resistance again in the next week if we want to see higher numbers for March. The btc community is very positive atm and I think we will do it but no one knows when the bottom or the tops are in and it is speculation and a little risk taking if you have invested into btc. My target number is a long time away so I am not too concerned about beating the resistance this week and I think increasing gradually will be better overall.

[Lucius]

~snip~
But for anyone that do not have the mind to sell bitcoin soon but waiting for months or years before selling, the person can buy now or start DCA which is better.

The OP actually practices DCA, although he is concerned about his average price, which of course increases as the price of BTC goes up. The thing is that some people would very much like to extend the bear market because they want to accumulate more at lower prices, but from what we see now, it seems that we have already touched the absolute bottom.

Waiting for another crash is always an option, but I wonder how realistic it is after all the negative things that happened last year? I'm not saying that something bad can't happen again, but realistically speaking, we are on the road to recovery, not only when it comes to Bitcoin, but also the global markets.

[dragonvslinux]

I think the bottom is very much in, but that price could now correct down to $20K based on today's price action. For the time being, it looks like price has failed to break $25K and has been rejected on Weekly time-frame from this level for second consecutive week. There is a lot of support around $20K however which I believe will hold and will be the real test of whether the bottom is in or not if it gets there.

Personally I'm not concerned about the double top scenario at $25K that is currently playing out, as long as a higher low is formed around the $20K levels which would confirm price remains bullish.

[hugeblack]

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?

According to @ImThour #Bitcoin Bottom was at $15,476, so yes you can say bottom is in.

His way is to compare Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022 you can read it ---> Bye Bye Bear Market



Whether you believe the analyzes or not, but we need a strong event to return to 15K, not to mention breaking the bottom to a lower bottom, which seems that it will not happen in the normal situation.
So without an exceptional event, we can say that we have reached the bottom.

[franky1]

forget about the market price(retail market) for one minute

the look at the whole sale market of the cheapest methods to acquire coin
mostly this is the most efficient mining costs

q4 2022 had a $15k bottomline cheapest wholesale(most efficient mining) cost

since then mining hash rate has gone up meaning not only is the market price tested that bottom. the actual costs have since gone up which also gives stronger support
to cause the market to not test that previous bottom. but if it does dip again to test a newer raised bottom slightly above $15k

no one wants to sell at a loss and anyone that has intended to sell at $16k has done so.

anyway here is some math

based on 260exa hash average for q4 of 2022
gave a ~$7.5k hardware cost
  - 260exa / 191thash =1361257 asics
     a $3.63k asic with a 2 year life cycle = $4938638743.46 for 2 years (105000 blocks)
     $4.94b / 105000 blocks = 47034.66 a block
     47034.66 a block /6.25 = 7525.54 per btc hardware

gave $7.5k electric
  - 1361257 * $0.21 (5.2kwh at $0.04 is 0.208) = $283141.46 electric an hour
    = 283141.46 /6 /6.25 = 7550.44 per btc
totalling $15k mining cost for efficient hardware and low electric rate

NOTE
if average hashrate was say:
300exa = hardware 8685.71 + electric 8712.04 = 17397.75

meaning if a LENGTHY period of mining stabilises around 300exa
then the efficient mining cost bottom is going to be 17.4k
thus strengthening the bottom where no one wants to sell below "cheapest mining"

if we then look at the hashrate. we are seeing hasrate go over 300eca meaning the lengthy period average of the 2022 estimate is increasing thus going above last periods $15k and getting closer to the presumed average i just mentioned

this means chances of crashing again to near $15k is alot less chance then the first time it did

enjoy

[pixie85]

Fundamentals say bottom should be in since 19 000 we reached in September. The FTX crash was an exceptional move like the 2019 covid crash.

Technicals say bottom is in. We had a golden cross which doesn't have to mean a rally but it usually means the worst is over. While it doesn't say what the price will be in the coming months it definitely says the tide is turning into a much less bearish.

Timeline also shows we're very close to a bull market if not already in it because we've been in the bear market since November of last year so 16 months in. It's more than enough to make all people who were in over their heads to sell and exit and those who are left are hardened holders and newbies who bought sub 20 000.

[o48o]

On technical analysis i haven't seen really convincing confirmation, but in terms of how the market and atmosphere feels like for someone who has experienced 3 big bear runs and 2 and big bull runs. This definitely feels like the bottom is in. It's nothing specific or technical. It's a combination of things that feel so familiar.

[Hamphser]

I know that none of us know for sure but I am curious to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?

All of those questions cant really be answered it out because bull run could happen neither before or after the halving event which no one really knows on what would happen.Bottom price? People do have that lots

of talks about 10-12k price which they are really that tending to catch it up.It might a little bit too far off if we do base up on the current price but we know that possibilities are really there.Now the price is struggling to break that 25k roof that we do have but i could see that it would be breakthrough on this year 2023.Yes, its too early for us to deal up with the current price and see some bull run.
For me its not bad to place up yourself yet this could really be a possible bottom.

[boyptc]

Just for my opinion, I'd say that it is in already. We're getting close to the season of halving again and that's why every after the latest bull run, comes next with a great bear market and that was for last year.

It's why bitcoin is just playing around from $23k-$25k and the lowest that we've seen at this point was $16k. Many are still speculating about $10k-$13k and that's for them to decide if they think that bitcoin will reach that certain low but for me, I don't think that we'll see those points again.

This is just IMHO but as usual, this is a volatile market and anything for its price has the possibility.

[STT]

Bottom is a process not an event.   We can spike down and within 24hr most will guess that was the bottom price or we could take far longer to confirm multiple times a set of prices that becomes more like a basin then an exact spot where the price was lowest.    I think its fair to guess we are in the process of confirming 20k or nearby is a low that will set for this year and likely in future we will not trade this low again but it cant be said for absolute sure.  Depends possibly how extreme the news gets, if Euro value dips or Yen it raises USD greatly and that knocks onto us.

[Fundamentals Of]

The bottom could be in already. That the halving is still more than 12 months away doesn't mean the price is expected to stay this low. It is even possible Bitcoin would reach $40,000 or $50,000 before the halving and would fall down once again to our current price right now or even higher before finally bouncing back, pricing in the halving, and create another ATH.

This may not be the start of the stronger bull run. That is reserved after the halving, but this could be a weaker bull run but enough to hit $40,000 and above.

[Upgrade00]

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

One thing to point out is that the market dynamics of Bitcoin has been changing over the years. While market cycles still operate fairly similarly, there is a difference in how far we drop and the response from holders to crashes. This means that we cannot put off the possibility of a bull run to beyond the halving; it's very possible the price starts appreciating before then and tops out after the event.

Also, there doesn't have to be another drop leading up to a bull run.
I expect that the bottom is in and we would have more sideways movement before a spike.

[pooya87]

We can only speculate and only for short term that can be changed in the future.
Let's just say that there is no reason to see any more drops at this point and there are more reasons to see price continuing to rise up higher from this level.

We also have a better confidence in the market considering that things that previous affected bitcoin negatively are not having the same effects. For example over the past couple of weeks the US stock market has been dumping but bitcoin price has been going up. This means the panic seller newbies who tend to panic sell each time US stock market crashes are either out completely or they have finally learned that they should buy bitcoin when that market crashes not sell it.

[fuguebtc]

It is true that there is no exact answer to this type of question, my prediction is that we have bottomed out this bear season. I don't think we've made it out of the bear season yet; although the market will correct this year, it will not fall too deep below $17k again. Those that didn't buy last year and are still waiting for a bottom to buy bitcoin should probably regret their decision and change their plans now, if not more regrets should be felt.

[darkangel11]

After many years of watching the markets I've learned that it's impossible to tell because from time to time we have so called black swan events. An exchange bankruptcy is one of those events and it drags the price down despite TA and cycles. A positive thing in all of this is the price goes back to the mean soon after such event. I remember when they busted Ross and the news came out the price dropped 10% in a day. It was a good example of such instant trigger. If we were at the bottom of the bear market when the news came out, we'd have a lower low, despite TA saying otherwise.

That said, the bottom should be in. Those guys who still wait for 10k to buy bitcoin are tools IMO. They're spreading FUD hoping that people will react to their bullshit.