Bitcoin - is the bottom in?

[bettercrypto]

I know that none of us know for sure but I am curious to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?




Just to add, I am going to go with yes the bottom is in.

I do think we will crash again however to similar levels just not as low as the low we saw on the 21st November last year.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Bitcoin just fell last year by 15k$ plus because of the scandals that happened in FTX, it cannot be denied that the market was affected and it was followed by other FUD-known cryptos in this industry.

    It's good that when 2023 entered, bitcoin quickly recovered somehow, and until now, although the value is slowly rising, the important thing is that it is increasing, even if it goes down, but it's not that low because it's going up again. Maybe it will go down, but for sure it won't go below 23k$ in the month of March, I just think so.

[1715676595]

1715676595

[Lucius]

~snip~
That said, the bottom should be in. Those guys who still wait for 10k to buy bitcoin are tools IMO. They're spreading FUD hoping that people will react to their bullshit.

There will always be those who will think that the price of BTC is too high, and I don't think it's realistic to expect that to change - the only thing that changes are the numbers. When Bitcoin first touched $10 000 some thought it was only a matter of time before it would drop below $1000, and we know that never happened. Now some people are dreaming about $10k, and all they got is $15k+, and I believe that they are quite nervous lately, considering that things are not going the way they imagined.

FUD is no longer as effective as before, because over time people learn not to react to everything they see in the media, although it is always easy to convince beginners of almost anything, especially those who get information exclusively through social networks that are full of "experts".

[Marvell1]

After many years of watching the markets I've learned that it's impossible to tell because from time to time we have so called black swan events. An exchange bankruptcy is one of those events and it drags the price down despite TA and cycles. A positive thing in all of this is the price goes back to the mean soon after such event. I remember when they busted Ross and the news came out the price dropped 10% in a day. It was a good example of such instant trigger. If we were at the bottom of the bear market when the news came out, we'd have a lower low, despite TA saying otherwise.

That said, the bottom should be in. Those guys who still wait for 10k to buy bitcoin are tools IMO. They're spreading FUD hoping that people will react to their bullshit.

I am not saying technical analysis is useless, but actually, for the crypto market, relying on technical analysis will not be as effective as the forex market. Aside from the volatility-generating black swan events, crypto is still a manipulated market, so TA doesn't work. What we are seeing is also what market makers see, so they will find a way to turn things upside down and do what works for them.
And one more thing I see is that bitcoin is always going against the crowd, when people believe bitcoin will not be able to fall any further, bitcoin keeps plunging, creating more panic in the market.

[pooya87]

That said, the bottom should be in. Those guys who still wait for 10k to buy bitcoin are tools IMO. They're spreading FUD hoping that people will react to their bullshit.

To be fair most of the times when we see someone making an outrageous speculation about big drops or even big rises, they don't actually believe it themselves nor do they wait for it. They are merely stating their hopes and dreams. For example someone who panic sold their bitcoins below $20k resistance and have been setting up buy orders at $10k is not going to accept the fact that price is now above $20k and their buy orders are never going to be filled...

[jaberwock]

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

One thing to point out is that the market dynamics of Bitcoin has been changing over the years. While market cycles still operate fairly similarly, there is a difference in how far we drop and the response from holders to crashes. This means that we cannot put off the possibility of a bull run to beyond the halving; it's very possible the price starts appreciating before then and tops out after the event.

Also, there doesn't have to be another drop leading up to a bull run.
I expect that the bottom is in and we would have more sideways movement before a spike.

If there is a visible change then that would be the market cap. It's growing huge because of the continuous adoption that Bitcoin is getting while as for the market cycle, it is still the same. There is still a bear and bull seasons. This will never be changed anymore because both of these cycles has their own roles.

It's true that there is a difference on how a hodler respond to a crash because a hodler can never remain to be a newbie but once they get more experienced they won't be scared anymore about the drops. Instead of panic selling at the dip, they will now use this opportunity to bag more coins. With that said, a bull run is now possible even after the halving event.

[nurilham]

On technical analysis i haven't seen really convincing confirmation, but in terms of how the market and atmosphere feels like for someone who has experienced 3 big bear runs and 2 and big bull runs. This definitely feels like the bottom is in. It's nothing specific or technical. It's a combination of things that feel so familiar.

Even if we use technical analysis, we can't find an exact answer to whether the bottom has been reached or not. There is no way to know it convincingly, we just speculate about it. However, considering the current price and the BTC halving in the next year, I am very sure that the bottom was reached in 2022. 2023 is the second year of the bearish season and the price improvement looks better in early 2023, so we can assume that we won't experience the same decrease as in 2022. 2023 should be a time for a better season for Bitcoin and altcoins, it is a year before we have a bullish season in 2024. This year is almost the same as in 2019, a year before BTC halving in 2020.

[el kaka22]

It is, the bottom is in and it's gone. We were much lower than the current price, we were at 16k, maybe in some situations even lower than that somewhere, and we reached above 24k price already. Which means that bottom is far away enough to consider it gone now.

I know people will try to make sure that it's not really "gone" because they fear what may happen but it's really not a big problem for me to think that the only direction that we will go is up. Maybe not right away, maybe it will have a small decrease here and there, but it's basically above bottom price from here on out, it will not be there at all, it will be quite different for sure.

[carlfebz2]

It is, the bottom is in and it's gone. We were much lower than the current price, we were at 16k, maybe in some situations even lower than that somewhere, and we reached above 24k price already. Which means that bottom is far away enough to consider it gone now.

I know people will try to make sure that it's not really "gone" because they fear what may happen but it's really not a big problem for me to think that the only direction that we will go is up. Maybe not right away, maybe it will have a small decrease here and there, but it's basically above bottom price from here on out, it will not be there at all, it will be quite different for sure.

If we do speak about bottom then there's no way that we could able to point out those numbers because this market is really that unpredictable.There's no way that we could make out some conclusive approach.

It is really just that people do mold up those numbers just because of those technical indicators on which it isnt really that bad since we are applying out some analysis rather than on having pure guess at all.

This is why if you are going for long term then it wont really be that much of an issue but if you are making some short trades then it would be an another story.
There's no way that we could able to predict on whats ahead.

[TheGreatPython]

I know that none of us know for sure but I am curious to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?

Although the price was dropping for last few days, I think we are yet to see a drop again from this point, and I don't feel like we are at the total bottom at the moment. The $20k range would be the actual bottom in my opinion. If the price breaks up the resistance and rallies up from here, then it probably will become the bottom, but to me, I still feel it is yet to see a decline from this point and then we might see some positive price action towards $30 or even a little higher within the next couple of months.

[Husires]

When prices fell below 20,000, it was surprising to many people or most of us did not expect it, so the long stay in that range was a reason to think that we might go back to less than 10,000 dollars.
This did not happen, and therefore the chance of us returning again to that range is diminishing as long as the period continues to stay above that level for a long time.

 $21,000 will be our need long support range

Image source

[coolcoinz]

That said, the bottom should be in. Those guys who still wait for 10k to buy bitcoin are tools IMO. They're spreading FUD hoping that people will react to their bullshit.

To be fair most of the times when we see someone making an outrageous speculation about big drops or even big rises, they don't actually believe it themselves nor do they wait for it. They are merely stating their hopes and dreams. For example someone who panic sold their bitcoins below $20k resistance and have been setting up buy orders at $10k is not going to accept the fact that price is now above $20k and their buy orders are never going to be filled...

There's that Soloway guy who I saw quoted on Coindesk. To be honest, I have no idea why they think he's credible. After all, he's just one out of hundreds of traders who make their predictions public.
Anyway, after FTX crash he kept talking about 10k bitcoin and although months have passed he's still stuck in that prediction. According to him everything is a fakeout and we're still going to 10k. That reminds me of Tone Vays in 2019 who kept calling for 1k.

When prices fell below 20,000, it was surprising to many people or most of us did not expect it, so the long stay in that range was a reason to think that we might go back to less than 10,000 dollars.
This did not happen, and therefore the chance of us returning again to that range is diminishing as long as the period continues to stay above that level for a long time.

I suspect it was because like me they were surprised by sub 20k. Since the beginning of 2022 I was sure the worst case scenario was going to be 20k, maybe a wick below to 19k, but FTX panic made us fall below that and most traders got scared of it. THey thought that since it's the first time bitcoin fell so low the cucle-based TA is wrong and we're going lower. They failed to see that this wasn't a natural drop.

[summonerrk]

I think Bitcoin is still in the local bottom. Its price now does not correspond to the moving average. This is due to the shock of the events of last February, the collapse of the stock exchange. Surprisingly, he recovered a little, because there was no really positive news. Apparently people calm down, and negative moods subside. Further growth is possible, because cryptocurrencies used to often grow in price due to spring. It's not for nothing that there is an expression Crypto Spring.

[ilovealtcoins]

I know that none of us know for sure but I am curious to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?




Just to add, I am going to go with yes the bottom is in.

I do think we will crash again however to similar levels just not as low as the low we saw on the 21st November last year.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

My prediction is that bitcoin bottomed last year, and this year, we will have a gradual recovery in preparation for the halving event that will take place next year. This year bitcoin will still go up and down after that, but bitcoin won't be able to drop below $20k again, that's what I'm thinking. So those who haven't bought bitcoin yet, it's best to buy now, don't wait for bitcoin to bottom to start buying.

[ethereumhunter]

My prediction is that bitcoin bottomed last year, and this year, we will have a gradual recovery in preparation for the halving event that will take place next year. This year bitcoin will still go up and down after that, but bitcoin won't be able to drop below $20k again, that's what I'm thinking. So those who haven't bought bitcoin yet, it's best to buy now, don't wait for bitcoin to bottom to start buying.

That doesn't guarantee bitcoin can't go below $20k because we've seen how bitcoin moves. And if we observe, now bitcoin tends to move more wildly without being able to predict where it will move. But we can buy more bitcoins if the price goes below $20k again because that is a rare opportunity we may not see again. And in the meantime, $15k is bitcoin's lowest price this year and we can hope that the price will not touch that price again and only continue to rise to the next high.

[Iranus]

My prediction is that bitcoin bottomed last year, and this year, we will have a gradual recovery in preparation for the halving event that will take place next year. This year bitcoin will still go up and down after that, but bitcoin won't be able to drop below $20k again, that's what I'm thinking. So those who haven't bought bitcoin yet, it's best to buy now, don't wait for bitcoin to bottom to start buying.

That doesn't guarantee bitcoin can't go below $20k because we've seen how bitcoin moves. And if we observe, now bitcoin tends to move more wildly without being able to predict where it will move. But we can buy more bitcoins if the price goes below $20k again because that is a rare opportunity we may not see again. And in the meantime, $15k is bitcoin's lowest price this year and we can hope that the price will not touch that price again and only continue to rise to the next high.

In short, it's all speculation, and no one can make an accurate prediction about bitcoin. For those who bought bitcoins last year, they are hoping the market will rebound and rise again, so as to make a profit from their investment. And for those who still haven't bought bitcoin or want to buy more bitcoin cheaply, they are expecting bitcoin to drop again. All possibilities are possible, as long as we prepare a plan for both scenarios, then we don't need to worry too much about bitcoin rising or falling.

[btc78]

bottom thing again? we have couple of threads about this recently and yes it has been asked if 14-15k is the bottom and having that said? look at the market price right before you posted this?
and you will find that Bitcoin had already increased up to more than 20k and still pumping so how could you have this as thread now?
bitcoin had its bottom and now readying to take second level in which 30k.

[bestcoins1]

My prediction is that bitcoin bottomed last year, and this year, we will have a gradual recovery in preparation for the halving event that will take place next year. This year bitcoin will still go up and down after that, but bitcoin won't be able to drop below $20k again, that's what I'm thinking. So those who haven't bought bitcoin yet, it's best to buy now, don't wait for bitcoin to bottom to start buying.

Hopefully what you are thinking right now can really happen to Bitcoin. And you also don't have to think that it's the fault of those who wait for the price to drop first and then buy, because buying Bitcoin at a lower price opens up more profit opportunities than buying at a price currently circulating in the market. Although those who bought at the current price are also not wrong, it's just that the profit won't be that much if they sell again when the Bitcoin price reaches $ 25K again.

[S A KHAIR]

bottom thing again? we have couple of threads about this recently and yes it has been asked if 14-15k is the bottom and having that said? look at the market price right before you posted this?
and you will find that Bitcoin had already increased up to more than 20k and still pumping so how could you have this as thread now?
bitcoin had its bottom and now readying to take second level in which 30k.

Optimism is good, but what proof do you have that what you say will happen in the future? Anything can happen, don't be too subjective, always have a backup plan if things don't go as we expected. I still expect bitcoin to continue to rise, but I do not rule out the possibility that it will fall.

[STT]

I thought it could be lower still though initially I was surprised we didnt just stay in the 20k prices, it was always possible we could stretch an elastic BTC price negatively to get like 10k.  I just dont think that would have lasted long, we did probably go far enough downwards and find not much interest in selling exists there so yea I'd guess the bottom price or very close to it is  decided.    A bigger deal is how long we idle on the lows maybe, the lowest price is rarely found or traded by that many people most already sold along the way and/or did not have presence around the time of the low.
  Is buying here fair will answer the OP question, I think its fair to buy in the 20k prices still and works ok long term if you can handle the wait.

[ethereumhunter]

My prediction is that bitcoin bottomed last year, and this year, we will have a gradual recovery in preparation for the halving event that will take place next year. This year bitcoin will still go up and down after that, but bitcoin won't be able to drop below $20k again, that's what I'm thinking. So those who haven't bought bitcoin yet, it's best to buy now, don't wait for bitcoin to bottom to start buying.

That doesn't guarantee bitcoin can't go below $20k because we've seen how bitcoin moves. And if we observe, now bitcoin tends to move more wildly without being able to predict where it will move. But we can buy more bitcoins if the price goes below $20k again because that is a rare opportunity we may not see again. And in the meantime, $15k is bitcoin's lowest price this year and we can hope that the price will not touch that price again and only continue to rise to the next high.

In short, it's all speculation, and no one can make an accurate prediction about bitcoin. For those who bought bitcoins last year, they are hoping the market will rebound and rise again, so as to make a profit from their investment. And for those who still haven't bought bitcoin or want to buy more bitcoin cheaply, they are expecting bitcoin to drop again. All possibilities are possible, as long as we prepare a plan for both scenarios, then we don't need to worry too much about bitcoin rising or falling.

Those who have bought bitcoin at high prices must be able to keep their emotions in check because of course they will often see the price rise and fall before it finally rises again. But many people had taken advantage of this moment by buying many bitcoins, especially when yesterday's price dropped to $15k. We can only wait patiently and don't need to worry about the market situation because everything will improve. And we will get big profits again.