Bitcoin will (probably) go lower.

[Zilon]

But my opinion is that right now it's not the best time to buy bitcoin and it will go lower because of some reasons. The main reasons for me are that the inflation is still too high, the economy is suffering and rates are still high. There is also a statistical fact that all previous times when FED pivots happened, the economy dipped even lower and found a new bottom. We still didn't see this fallout so it's safe to assume that it's coming.
Latest statistics also showed that inflation is higher than expected and FED could start hiking rates once again.

My advice will be to wait until FED will start lowering rates which will mean that the economy will start recovering and money will flow into crypto and bitcoin.

Anyway, keep safe and don't panic, we will get through it.

What if more people still hold during the high inflation. Despite the population suffering in every economy there are still thousands who live comfortably. Don't forget inflation is manmade. The little amount we retail investors own is not enough to decide the direction of the market. In previous times the FED pivot could affect the market because the trend was in sync with the interest rates on reserve, interest rate target, bank rate and everything else. But i doubt such will repeat it self in this current investment year. Currently price has bounced back above $20k

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[traderethereum]

But in reality, the market is still in a bearish position and we don't know how long this situation will last and can only guess.
Maybe from the beginning of the new year to the middle, the market situation will not be stable and will still fluctuate again.
And there is indeed a possibility that bitcoin could drop even lower so we must remain vigilant.
If you want to invest in bitcoin, prepare your money and wait for the price you want or you can buy it now because it's the same thing.
And yes, we must remain calm and not panic because it can help us to analyze properly and find the time to enter the market.

[mich]

There is alot of negative news lately about Bitcoin so I agree with you. How much longer will it go lower is a question we must ask ourself.
Also I do agree it is 20k for main support. I hope we do not see t lower then this. But if price goes below 19k then we cold be in for some big losses.

[Lucius]

All things that happened in the past few days or past week:
- FED saying rates will raise for longer and therefore higher
- US Govt supposedly moving a billion dollars of bitcoin to coinbase
- NY AG office suing Kucoin and claiming that ETH is a security
- Silvergate officially going bust
- Voyager currently liquiditating all their crypto assets
- Biden proposing a 30% tax of electricity of bitcoin mining companies in a desire to stop corporate mining of bitcoin in the US

This looks like another in a series of "US strikes back" episodes, and it's just one more confirmation that the US has too much influence on Bitcoin, whether it's mining or trading or other things. Whichever angle we look at, it seems that everything revolves around what Biden or Powell will say, and what ideas will come to their mind when they wake up the next morning.

~snip~
We should know more in the next 2 weeks.

2 weeks is too little for it to be any clearer what the consequences of everything that is happening will be, and it seems to me that it will take months for the dust to settle a little and for us to get a somewhat clearer picture.

[Bazzu]

with the decline in the price of bitcoin, don't panic because later the price of bitcoin will have the potential to rise again,
but I don't think the price of bitcoin will fall any deeper because bitcoin holders are increasing from time to time. and indeed buying bitcoin using the dca system is the best way to buy.

but vigilance, of course, must always be there because investing in crypto is very difficult to guess.

[Joshapat]

Yesterday the price dropped again below $20k to $19800, those who bought at that cheap price were of course very happy because the price went up again and got a 2% profit in less than a day, many people hoped the price would drop because they wanted to buy more, for us of course when the price drops it becomes a good opportunity to buy more.

[fullhdpixel]

It feels like this is a drop in price due to global economic conditions. We seem to have reached a point where we’re going to find out if bitcoin is going to collapse with the rest of global assets, or if it’s going to soar in the face of a recession like some are hoping. I have my doubts, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed. However, I’m not sure that crossing your fingers is the best investment strategy.

I think you are right there because I noticed that people are complaining again about the high food cost. I am not aware with this but maybe inflation starts kicking again. This could mean that people are selling some of their Bitcoins to support their current lifestyle and they can not buy more Bitcoins for now because they need to prioritize their life outside first.

Global economic conditions or issues are too brutal than it can affect almost all financial markets and not only here in Bitcoin/cryptos. If they are now collapsing, we can expect that Bitcoin will be the next on the list. This wasn't the end though. We can just be calm and patient because all are soon going to return to normal again.

[Dave1]

Yesterday the price dropped again below $20k to $19800, those who bought at that cheap price were of course very happy because the price went up again and got a 2% profit in less than a day, many people hoped the price would drop because they wanted to buy more, for us of course when the price drops it becomes a good opportunity to buy more.

And it just shows the volatility nature of bitcoin, perhaps it was due to

- investors buying obviously
- the news no longer had that much effect on the market, in just 2 days, we are now above $20k again.

Lucky for those who have bought below $20k, but still though, the price is still very cheap and we can go and still buy and wait and HODL on it.

[Husires]

Sometimes waiting for the green signals makes you late for the trip because when it comes, your conditions may not be ideal to seize the opportunity.

Everyone who tried to wait for the perfect opportunity managed to fear, so who buys at 20K and waits until the price reaches 15K, what drives him to believe that the bottom has reached It happened, so it will wait for it to reach 10k, and when it reaches 10k it will say let's wait for it to reach 5k.

Do not forget that the rise, when it occurs, is at the speed of a rocket, and within less than 72 hours, the price may rise from 17K to 40K, then you will have nothing but to lament the missed opportunity.

[lixer]

many people talk, and when they have the opportunity to buy cheap, they don't do it. I am taking the opportunity to accumulate at the moment. I don't care if it goes down a little more and as I have said in other speculation threads, I don't expect big rises for 2023, although I would expect that by the end of the year we will close with a higher price than in 2022, which is not difficult, but until then there is a lot of volatility ahead of us, especially as things are in general in the economy.

I don't look at what will happen to the price in the next few months, but over the next few years, and what I see happening is that we will look back and see that 20,000 was a very cheap price. So the best thing to do is to accumulate at these levels.

That's because it's easy to talk than to do an action. If we are truly committed with one thing, we must show it by doing an action with less or no talking at all. At the moment the price is still down even after a little recovery. Your decision of buying is great. The market is giving us another chance or one last chance before we finally see the bull run.

We can't control the price with our action so how much more by voice alone? You can say that there are no increases this year but it can still possibly happen but no worries because you are well prepared already. Volatilities are always there because they are the nature of cryptos but we can use this as our advantage.

[Cryptomiles1]

Hello everyone! Today bitcoin went below 20k and it will probably go even lower I share my opinion on why it will happen.

Do you have a specific time, day and period on how the dip would last maybe one could possibly utilize this period to fills up his bag, since I am not a consistent trader and we do usually take advantage of every single opportunity that comes out immediately.

To know how good you are with price prediction you can placed your predicted price here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5441704.0
Follow the instructions carefully let's see how authentic your predictions could be. You may discard if you already applied.

[bbigtart]

There is alot of negative news lately about Bitcoin so I agree with you. How much longer will it go lower is a question we must ask ourself.
Also I do agree it is 20k for main support. I hope we do not see t lower then this. But if price goes below 19k then we cold be in for some big losses.

The only way that is always positive and Dca is way to go and take profits along the lines. The longer I've been in crypto, the more I realize that no one knows what's going on with a bear market. The way down is in, we're going down, always looking to come back maybe $19k to fill the void.

[ivankoh]

I don't think its Mt Gox causing anything, I mean that may have caused a bit of the initial bearishness at the beginning of the month but I don't see anyone talking about Mt Gox now. And didn't that get like moved back to later in the year anyway or something?

All things that happened in the past few days or past week:
- FED saying rates will raise for longer and therefore higher
- US Govt supposedly moving a billion dollars of bitcoin to coinbase
- NY AG office suing Kucoin and claiming that ETH is a security
- Silvergate officially going bust
- Voyager currently liquiditating all their crypto assets
- Biden proposing a 30% tax of electricity of bitcoin mining companies in a desire to stop corporate mining of bitcoin in the US


That's a lot of negative things and it all happened at once. Those are what bought Bitcoin crashing down below $20k. Silvergate was the main thing, though all these other things happening in the past couple days just compounded the Silvergate news to drop the market further. Once we're onto the next news cycle and Silvergate collapsing is old news Bitcoin should recover unless some of these other things become more serious.

Lol, looks like the events are arranged and the way it happened is like a deliberately staged movie.  The issue of a 30% tax increase on the mining industry is probably going to be good for bitcoin value in the long run.  on the form of the US government recommend 10% per year, increase in 3 years and apply after December 31 of this year.  I suppose if it is passed, it is not really serious for the trend to improve and recover the trend of bitcoin.  I am also quite concerned about the issue of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), if it cannot be resolved in any way that benefits the users from the US government.  Will Bitcoin be replaced?
Personally, I still have great faith that bitcoin will not move below the $19k support and it will go up soon.

[GideonGono]

So many FUD coming out these days so I am certain that it would really go lower.
I am waiting for it to happen and saving up to buy some when it reach the price that I am setting for.
I am trying to cut some unnecessary expenses just to save up for this one and I know that it would all be worth it.

[thecodebear]

I don't think its Mt Gox causing anything, I mean that may have caused a bit of the initial bearishness at the beginning of the month but I don't see anyone talking about Mt Gox now. And didn't that get like moved back to later in the year anyway or something?

All things that happened in the past few days or past week:
- FED saying rates will raise for longer and therefore higher
- US Govt supposedly moving a billion dollars of bitcoin to coinbase
- NY AG office suing Kucoin and claiming that ETH is a security
- Silvergate officially going bust
- Voyager currently liquiditating all their crypto assets
- Biden proposing a 30% tax of electricity of bitcoin mining companies in a desire to stop corporate mining of bitcoin in the US


That's a lot of negative things and it all happened at once. Those are what bought Bitcoin crashing down below $20k. Silvergate was the main thing, though all these other things happening in the past couple days just compounded the Silvergate news to drop the market further. Once we're onto the next news cycle and Silvergate collapsing is old news Bitcoin should recover unless some of these other things become more serious.

Lol, looks like the events are arranged and the way it happened is like a deliberately staged movie.  The issue of a 30% tax increase on the mining industry is probably going to be good for bitcoin value in the long run.  on the form of the US government recommend 10% per year, increase in 3 years and apply after December 31 of this year.  I suppose if it is passed, it is not really serious for the trend to improve and recover the trend of bitcoin.  I am also quite concerned about the issue of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), if it cannot be resolved in any way that benefits the users from the US government.  Will Bitcoin be replaced?
Personally, I still have great faith that bitcoin will not move below the $19k support and it will go up soon.

Luckily the FED announced today it will essentially bail out all the customers of SVB so Circle's issues are over, they'll get back all the fiat they had in SVB that backs USDC. And this is why Bitcoin jumped 10% today along with everything else in crypto jumping as well. The other things that happened last week that initially caused Bitcoin to drop under $20k are already starting to be part of the last new cycle as the SVB failure took over the news cycle this weekend and its already resolved now. I'm sure there will be more negative news for Bitcoin, and some of last week's news will get back in the media, but for now at least the market looks great after the USDC drama is now over.

[Oasisman]

Yesterday the price dropped again below $20k to $19800, those who bought at that cheap price were of course very happy because the price went up again and got a 2% profit in less than a day, many people hoped the price would drop because they wanted to buy more, for us of course when the price drops it becomes a good opportunity to buy more.

Lucky for those who have bought below $20k, but still though, the price is still very cheap and we can go and still buy and wait and HODL on it.

That is why DCA is very important, because you will have the opportunity to cashout a profit in this kind of price fluctuations. However, I would suggest to just hodl it when you're DCAing.
And yes, Bitcoin's price today is technically cheap, we might not going to see this Bitcoin valued at $20k next time, especially when Bitcoin hits the $100k milestone.

[dragonvslinux]

This is BTC correlation with Nasdaq, almost the entire year it stayed up closer to 1 than to half a point and din;t go blow zero till the very end finally diverging.

Hey, what's going on with Bitcoin? I thought BTC was correlated with Nasdaq but is currently up 18% over weekend while Nasdaq is flat since Friday!

It's almost like Bitcoin is correlated with Nasdaq until it's no longer correlated with Nasdaq...

Bitcoin could de-correlate at any point like it has in the past.

PS - Still waiting on an explanation as to why Bitcoin has performed better during high inflation than in past bear markets 

[stompix]

Had to wait till I have some more time for the reply, you little JJJ clone 

~

Technically not every bearish CPI announcement caused another dump, this is just retrospectively what people perceived to have happened. Can give examples if required...

If the CPI announcement was worse than predicted or it signaled for sure another increase it did trigger a dump, I made that my hobby of having an alarm set for every date, and it never disappointed. The fact that the dump was erased later on, yeah I can agree it bounced back but always when the data was bad news there was an initial red dildo clear as the sky is blue.

I'm not just saying this in hindsight, I stated numerous times in different threads that either $25K breaks and we go to $30K, or we go back to $20K...

As later on this post, you're starting to look at this like no matter if an asteroid hits the planet or a ww3 starts, if the price doesn't go to $30k and it drops to 20000$ it's because of a TA and some lines not because of nukes flying.

So does this then mean that Bitcoin's rise in 2021 was due to impending high inflation (after post covid19 money printing etc)? I'm not very convinced, again, I think this is just 4-year all over again.

Why not blame the rise on normal growth, growth that was supposed to happen as adoption or investment grew themselves and that probably wouldn't have stopped so abruptly in the first place? Why not blame the premature stop on inflation and why not blame the lack of growth while getting more and more exposure to the current bad situation? Tesla shares performed best in their history once Covid entered the scene, does this mean without a new virus spreading around they will return to the same linear pattern as in previous years?

Hey, what's going on with Bitcoin? I thought BTC was correlated with Nasdaq but is currently up 18% over weekend while Nasdaq is flat since Friday! It's almost like Bitcoin is correlated with Nasdaq until it's no longer correlated with Nasdaq...

Of course, and I'm one of the happiest about it, probably I forgot to mention but I like more the aspect of being able to use BTC as a means of payment and safe storage of wealth than gambling on exchanges and the whole asset point. Just because I was pointing out how the correlation happened and how it went against the whole idea of being a hedge against inflation doesn't mean I was happy even at the moment with it.

A bank failing and the exact tool designed against this acting like it's being affected just as worse by it would be beyond stupid, in the current situation if it would have performed the same it would have been really like the world taking another piss on the whole thing

2022-2023 bear market (with high inflation): Bitcoin drops -77% from ATH after approx one year.
~
For clarity, I'm not questioning why Bitcoin has dropped -77% since ATH, as to me it seems obvious (in hindsight) that this is what Bitcoin does every 4 years and has done so for 12.

You're again oversimplifying things, what was 2021 then?
Was it a bear market since we dropped from 60k, or was it a bull market since we went from 2x?
Again making it sound like this was written in stone it had to go down ~70% because that's what bitcoin does, the trend has already been broken, the second rise over a previous ATH in less than a year, the drop below a previous ATH, you can choose to ignore it but are clear signs history has getting tired of repeating the same story.

Probably you're used to this:

Which one of them was worse?

And to combine this with your other question.
That  86% drop erased $10 billion of value, the current one erased $800 billion!
So... Did it really perform better? Mark Twain might have something to say about those statistics and percentages.

[Stedsm]

The ever-surprising BTC actually went under $20k but according to me, what threw it back up could be the bailout given to both SVB and Silvergate Bank, due to which Circle's USDC too saw a bounce back to $1 which was expected but I still believe that this rally could fade out and BTC would get back under $20k again making this an all-time favorite swing trade wiping out many millions and taking enough liquidity both sides by hitting major stop losses.

[dragonvslinux]

To the crux of the matter in order to avoid countering random speculation and adding my own dose of it...

2014-2015 bear market (no high inflation): Bitcoin drops -83% from ATH after approx one year
2018-2019 bear market (no high inflation): Bitcoin drops -83% from ATH after approx one year
2022-2023 bear market (with high inflation): Bitcoin drops -77% from ATH after approx one year.
~
For clarity, I'm not questioning why Bitcoin has dropped -77% since ATH, as to me it seems obvious (in hindsight) that this is what Bitcoin does every 4 years and has done so for 12.

You're again oversimplifying things, what was 2021 then?

To oversimply things further for you, it was a bull market. Price went from around $29K to $69K and ended the year around $46K. Not a spectacular bull run by any means, even tested the yearly lows, but an uptrend that led to higher prices of +59%.  Sometimes simplying things to whether price went up or down can actually be quite useful imo in a binary sense.

In this case, 2021 was an UP year, similar to the year before.

Again making it sound like this was written in stone it had to go down ~70% because that's what bitcoin does, the trend has already been broken, the second rise over a previous ATH in less than a year, the drop below a previous ATH, you can choose to ignore it but are clear signs history has getting tired of repeating the same story.

Price wise, sure. I actually couldn't agree more (genuinely). Bitcoin has never seen fake out style ATH, nor dropping below previous ATH made years before. Given the lack of blow off top I was someone who (wrongly) believed that price could hold around $30K based on the change of price action. But again, this isn't relevant to the issue of why Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 bear market than 2014 or 2018.

Probably you're used to this:

Which one of them was worse?

Gonna go out on a limb and say -86% is the worst bear market so far, but only based on that graphic.
Where did the -93% from $31 to $2 bear market go though? Apparently it didn't happen??
At least provide an accurate graphic of ATH to ATL next time please!

And to combine this with your other question.
That  86% drop erased $10 billion of value, the current one erased $800 billion!
So... Did it really perform better? Mark Twain might have something to say about those statistics and percentages.

Right, ok. That's definitely a different answer to why Bitcoin hasn't performed better in 2022 than previous bear markets - I'll grant you that, literally 100%. Even certify that it's a reasonable argument compared to others I've heard! So basically anything over $10b drop (that at the time was 86%) is worse than -77%, because it repesents $800b? Like many others, I'll take it quite happily. At current market cap of around $450b, that means that every $10b drop is worse than the -86% drop - that as I explained isn't even the worst bear market anyway - but let's run with it for shits and giggles.

So, by your own argument and logic, every 2.2% correction or downtrend that Bitcoin has (at current prices) is worst than the -86% drop that happened in 2014/2015?

I rest my case. Still waiting for a relevant argument as to why high inflation is bad for Bitcoin