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Author Topic: Russia and others, move to use Yuan instead of dollar.  (Read 1547 times)
DrBeer
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July 22, 2023, 06:16:14 AM
 #201

He can't!
It's a misconception... The problem is that :
1. Objectively, there is a lot of gold being mined.
2. It is impossible to objectively find out the real gold reserves in the gold reserves of a country ! Some deliberately deceive, some secrecy, some simply tell tales about their reserves Smiley
3. If you have gold as such, an independent asset, it is even more impossible. Here are more details. There are countries where there are LARGE reserves of gold. Most countries do not have such reserves. Therefore, most countries will be against it. Because it will be "unfair" - some will have gold under their feet, and the majority will be forced to buy it by selling their assets. That is, there is some monopolization of gold production, which puts other countries in unequal conditions.

Not sure about the third point. At present, none of the countries are having a monopoly on gold mining. Even the largest producer (China) accounts for less than 10% of the annual mine output. The situation now is much different from what we had two decades ago, when South Africa used to dominate gold production. China, Russia, Canada and United States are among the top-5 producers of gold and I don't think that there will be a lot of opposition from these countries in case gold is proposed as an asset that can be used to make payments for international trade.

I'm not talking about one country. But deposits and production of gold are similar to deposits of oil, for example - there are, conditionally, several countries. And as you can see - this leads, especially in difficult situations, to the fact that some using "semi-monopoly position", begin to manipulate this resource.
Gold has the same risk if it is adopted as a "world" standard. Yes, for "local use", in "troubled" times - gold is not bad as a safe harbor, plus brings income. But ... imagine, or more correctly - model the situations that now NEFT has become the international currency of settlements. And you will realize what chaos the modern world would plunge into....

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September 30, 2023, 11:05:10 AM
 #202

This is what could be referred to in international politics as power tussle in terms of international levels of analysis. Haven such two conflicting countries like China and Russia coming together based on mutual economic interest against a common rival the USA is one that could be very frustrating for the US dollar with the unambiguous leverage and advantage the likes of Russia, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia have come together to give to the Chinese Yuan. With Russia in the forefront bent on the use of the Chinese Yuan instead of the US dollar in their country and in all of it's transactions and trades settlements with Latin America, Africa and Asia countries.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-turns-to-chinas-yuan-in-effort-to-ditch-the-dollar-a8111457

What does this new development make for the US economy and the US dollar in the coming days and years to come.

Give your personal opinion on this development!
Every country strives to strengthen its currency and have more other countries use its national currency, as this strengthens the economy of its country. Russia did try to increase its financial reserves in Chinese yuan, but lost because the yuan became cheaper after that. Russia is doing this primarily not because of its dislike for the dollar, but because of the sanctions imposed after the military invasion of Ukraine and its restrictions on the use of dollars. If Russia switches to using the national currency of another country in international trade, it loses in any case and at the same time strengthens the currency of the country it uses in trade. This indicates not the strength, but the weakness of Russia.

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October 02, 2023, 06:54:45 AM
 #203

Having worked with the information, I can say - the title of the topic should be changed to "Outcast countries, in order to have at least some possibility to trade - sell their goods for yuan".
The main question is where these poor slaves of the yuan can use it ? Let's fantasize, shall we? Hm..... There is only 1 option - to buy Chinese consumer goods !  Smiley

Although I will clarify it to be fair. Some normal countries do "test" deals, for example UAE, in May 2023, sold oil for yuan. But given the share of yuan in the UAE's turnover, its part in the budget is commensurate with the margin of error.

I'll clarify again though Smiley Some very smart countries have decided not to trade for yuan, such as India. India understands perfectly well what China is getting at. Given India's desire to take a leading position in the region, India will not save China by "importing China's economic problems" into its economy.

...AoBT...
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October 02, 2023, 01:58:48 PM
 #204

Having worked with the information, I can say - the title of the topic should be changed to "Outcast countries, in order to have at least some possibility to trade - sell their goods for yuan".
The main question is where these poor slaves of the yuan can use it ? Let's fantasize, shall we? Hm..... There is only 1 option - to buy Chinese consumer goods !  Smiley

It is an almost impossible hypothesis to achieve balance if Russia decides to deal in the yuan only, because in this case it will either have to deal with countries that use the yuan, which is very little, which means dealing directly with China in everything related to its import needs. China, of course, cannot provide Russia with all its needs of foreign imports, and therefore the Chinese yuan will accumulate in Russia's account and it will not find anything to do with it. This is in addition to exposure to the risks of exchange rate fluctuations.
Russia is not the only one concerned with this, but rather any country that wants to completely get rid of the dollar because this is almost impossible in the current global circumstance.
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October 02, 2023, 05:33:33 PM
 #205

Having worked with the information, I can say - the title of the topic should be changed to "Outcast countries, in order to have at least some possibility to trade - sell their goods for yuan".
The main question is where these poor slaves of the yuan can use it ? Let's fantasize, shall we? Hm..... There is only 1 option - to buy Chinese consumer goods !  Smiley

It is an almost impossible hypothesis to achieve balance if Russia decides to deal in the yuan only, because in this case it will either have to deal with countries that use the yuan, which is very little, which means dealing directly with China in everything related to its import needs. China, of course, cannot provide Russia with all its needs of foreign imports, and therefore the Chinese yuan will accumulate in Russia's account and it will not find anything to do with it. This is in addition to exposure to the risks of exchange rate fluctuations.
Russia is not the only one concerned with this, but rather any country that wants to completely get rid of the dollar because this is almost impossible in the current global circumstance.


Here's a slightly different picture.
1. China cannot provide Russia with everything it needs, only because China needs CURRENCY. But they will not sell everything for yuan, which China has more than it needs. As long as Russia has something that can be measured in currency, China will use Russia as a raw material appendage, giving it “glass beads” in return. Consumer goods - yes, they will sell them for yuan, no problem there. And he will buy gas and oil for yuan - with pleasure Smiley But Russia's requests go far beyond what China can sell them. China now has a lot of problems, and China categorically does not need to get dirty with “friendship” with Russia and receive sanctions.
2. Russia is not concerned about the “move away from the dollar.” Russia is sorely short of dollars! its economy without an influx of foreign currency is dying. Russia, despite its propaganda, is a backward country and is globally dependent on Western technologies, goods, and equipment. And China cannot deliver this...

...AoBT...
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