how can we know that a wallet is lost

[Merit.s]

there are many threads and news about people losing access to their wallets and forgetting or seed phrases,
and it's better for scarcity of bitcoin,  but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply? is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

No bitcoin wallet can get lost,i.e the coins in the wallet remains there till the owner figures out his seed phrase or forgets about the bitcoin,if he can't get his seed phrase. It is impossible for any one to know a lost wallet and for anyone to believe you,if you tell them that you have lost your wallet because it is untraceable. There can be forgotten or abandoned wallet,due to the fact that the owners don't have access to their wallets. Trying to get the list if all bitcoin wallets that owners cannot access is impossible and a waste of time. There is no need to worry over spilled milk.

[1714957245]

1714957245

[Venik]

You can't know that for sure, only when someone actually says that he lost access to his wallet. Tbh this is the only thing I don't like about Bitcoin. At some point, it seems like 5 million or even more BTC will be lost and never be used, and that's not a good thing considering there can only be 21 million.

[sokani]

there are many threads and news about people losing access to their wallets and forgetting or seed phrases,
and it's better for scarcity of bitcoin,  but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply? is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

There's no way you can actually know if the bitcoin belonging to a particular wallet address has been lost except such a person comes forth and says that he/she has lost ownership of the private keys or seed phrase. Some persons might have some unmoved BTC in their wallet for years, so viewing such btc using explorer doesn't mean they are lost or abandoned.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Some very early addresses like satoshi's are basically lost.

We don't know that. Satoshi could reappear tomorrow and spend all their coins.

A prime example of this was several hundred early addresses which "woke up" after being dormant for 10 years in order to sign a message calling CSW a fraud.

There's no way you can actually know if the bitcoin belonging to a particular wallet address has been lost except such a person comes forth and says that he/she has lost ownership of the private keys or seed phrase.

This also doesn't mean that the coins are lost. People claim they have lost coins they haven't lost for a huge variety of reasons.

[kamvreto]

You can't know that for sure, only when someone actually says that he lost access to his wallet. Tbh this is the only thing I don't like about Bitcoin. At some point, it seems like 5 million or even more BTC will be lost and never be used, and that's not a good thing considering there can only be 21 million.

why do you say it's not a good thing when someone loses access to his wallet and 5 million Bitcoins can't be unlocked by anyone. It even makes Bitcoin step by step with the increasingly limited Supply of bitcoins in circulation. Only 21 million and several million cannot be opened by anyone. The rarer the bitcoin, the more expensive it will be.

[panganib999]

Nothing is entirely lost in the bitcoin network, only inaccessible. As is the case for when people forget their seed phrases, privste keys, or passwords. The coin is pretty much still there, just out of the user's reach sadly. Now, the story goes different when we're talking about hackings and bitcoin theft. Which of course depending on the scenario, could either mean that you'd still be able to get a hold of your stolen bitcoin(s) in the process or those are gone forever and you bave to love on. It's all situational really for one to consider a bitcoin lost.

[suzanne5223]

but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply?

There's no way to speculate or know a certain Bitcoin in a wallet is lost unless the wallet owner makes a public announcement about it. Yes, the BTC lost among the total 21 million coins.

is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

Yes, it will be a good idea to have a site that focuses on lost BTC wallet, and in case we have someone that wants to work on it here are some well know Bitcoiner that seems to lose their wallet.

[darkangel11]

No bitcoin wallet can get lost,i.e the coins in the wallet remains there till the owner figures out his seed phrase or forgets about the bitcoin,if he can't get his seed phrase. It is impossible for any one to know a lost wallet and for anyone to believe you,if you tell them that you have lost your wallet because it is untraceable. There can be forgotten or abandoned wallet,due to the fact that the owners don't have access to their wallets. Trying to get the list if all bitcoin wallets that owners cannot access is impossible and a waste of time. There is no need to worry over spilled milk.

We call a bitcoin wallet "lost" when the seed/private key/wallet password is lost/forgotten. Yes, in technical terms the wallet is not lost, but in real life it can be no longer accessible, unless cracked.
It's not all about the owner finding the password again. I can give you an example of a situation where the coins are and will remain lost forever.
Imagine that long time ago you were mining bitcoin on your computer. You never had any backups because that bitcoin was worth maybe $20, but now it's worth close to a million dollars. The hard drive was physically damaged, for instance you had a fire in your home and everything burned to ashes. The coins will never be used again, so they're "lost".

We don't know how much of the supply is in this state of limbo, but coins that weren't moved for the last 10 years will most likely be put in this group.

[tjtonmoy]

There are many strong HODLers who have never moved their Bitcoin after buying. It may seem like it is a lost wallet, but you can never know for sure. Only those who have publically announced their lost wallet, could be listed. Otherwise, there isn't any system that could tell you that which one is lost. I have seen many thread regarding people finding their wallets after they have lost it in the past, long time ago.
And I don't know why would we need such thing right now. What lost is lost. If not found, it's a good thing for Bitcoin. So from my POV, it is unnecessary.

[LDL]

there are many threads and news about people losing access to their wallets and forgetting or seed phrases,
and it's better for scarcity of bitcoin,  but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply? is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

I don't think there is any software or technology that can detect the lost very easily. However, due to the lack of value of Bitcoin at the beginning of the discovery of Bitcoin, many large holders neglected to save Bitcoin reserving wallets, so there is no permission or access to all those wallets. So all those wallets are being detected as lost wallets. But today, the case of lost Bitcoin wallets is not very common. However due to various unforeseen reasons bitcoin wallets get lost or access keys/seeds get lost. If there is no special announcement then the lost wallet cannot be identified.

[vv181]

We don't know how much of the supply is in this state of limbo, but coins that weren't moved for the last 10 years will most likely be put in this group.

Bold of you to assume a ten year dormant wallet is categorized to be lost. Especially it is already noted that a decade wallet was recently activated,

The certain way to calculate inaccessible coins is the one that is sent/burnt into OP_return output. Attempting to list a coin that is claimed to be lost is meaningless. Even if you decide to go that way and speculate to categorize that some address is the lost one, what are you going to do? recirculate it back? That would be a catastrophe because the mechanism is faulty in essence.

[Issa56]

there are many threads and news about people losing access to their wallets and forgetting or seed phrases,
and it's better for scarcity of bitcoin,  but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply? is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

Their is no way you will know if a wallet is lost, their is no website to show if a wallet is lost. I don’t know you expect that to be possible, some people bought bitcoin and they have been holding bitcoin for years now, if you see that kind of wallet, you might be thinking the owner already lose access to the wallet, but don’t be surprise that the owner of the wallet is still having all the details to the wallet, he might not just be ready to sell but some people will think the owner already lose access. The only bitcoin that you will know is lost is the one that happens to you or someone close to you, or the once the owner comes to social media to announce.

[Quidat]

there are many threads and news about people losing access to their wallets and forgetting or seed phrases,
and it's better for scarcity of bitcoin,  but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply? is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

Whats the point on having a list of lost wallets? It doesnt make no sense on knowing that because there's nothing we can do with those wallets.There's no way on getting those coins back.
If they are out of circulation then we cant be having that complete 21M supply in circulation which means that if the demand getting higher and the supply gets lesser then expect that
it would really be giving out some positive value which we are really that longing for. Try to find out way on bruteforcing? Good luck with that.

[darkangel11]

We don't know how much of the supply is in this state of limbo, but coins that weren't moved for the last 10 years will most likely be put in this group.

Bold of you to assume a ten year dormant wallet is categorized to be lost. Especially it is already noted that a decade wallet was recently activated,

The certain way to calculate inaccessible coins is the one that is sent/burnt into OP_return output. Attempting to list a coin that is claimed to be lost is meaningless. Even if you decide to go that way and speculate to categorize that some address is the lost one, what are you going to do? recirculate it back? That would be a catastrophe because the mechanism is faulty in essence.

That's why I said "will most likely be put in that group", instead of "are lost".
This is the way blockchain analytics operate. These companies make probable statistics and predictions and a 1 year old address with no outputs is going to be put in a group they suspect to be lost.
It sometimes happens that an old address wakes up, but as they say, exception proves the rule. The fact that 1 address woke up, doesn't change the fact that other 100 did not and many analysts will label much younger addresses lost. As a matter of fact, coins sent to an address could be lost automatically. Imagine a situation where someone sets up a wallet and dies. Later someone makes a mistake while sending money and sends it to an address belonging to that dead guy. The coins are lost in an instant. Sending coins to an address belonging to Satoshi or one of the known dead bitcoiners.

[serjent05]

there are many threads and news about people losing access to their wallets and forgetting or seed phrases,
and it's better for scarcity of bitcoin,  but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply? is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

No one knows if the wallet is actually lost except for the owner.  Idle coins for years can possibly be considered lost but there are cases where the coins are moved after years of being untouched.  All the data about lost Bitcoin are just assumption and is not an accurate reference to whether a coin is lost or not.  So instead of stating lost wallets, we can categorize them as idle or dormant wallets.

[Silberman]

there are many threads and news about people losing access to their wallets and forgetting or seed phrases,
and it's better for scarcity of bitcoin,  but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply? is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

No one can tell if some coins are lost or not, even the supposed owner behind those coins cannot tell us that, as the only way to demonstrate they are the owners of the addresses they claim to have some lost coins is by signing a message, but if someone could sign the message then their coins will not be lost, so OP do not worry about the coins of others and concentrate on what you can do to increase your own stash, as at the end those are the only coins which directly affect you.

[Mr.right85]

there are many threads and news about people losing access to their wallets and forgetting or seed phrases,
and it's better for scarcity of bitcoin,  but how can we know or speculate that the wallet is lost, and it is out of the supply? is there any platform where we can find lost wallets, if no, then it's a good idea to start a website and list every lost wallets.

Its good that you get the idea that, lost wallets translates to lost private keys or lost seed phrases. Though, that is only true when you've got no other access to the said wallet. Yeah, you head that right.

Seed phrases or private keys aren't the only access you've got to a wallet. Upon installing a wallet and accessing it on your device, your bound go create a password that enables you to have access to it. You might afterwards lose your generated seed phrase or private key but still have access to the wallet with your password. Hence, that wallet isn't lost technically, you've just lost every option of recovery if the wallet is uninstalled or the device is damaged.

Best practice would be to create a different wallet and send them coins over there.

[CryptSafe]

Since I was onboarded, I really have not heard about any device that detects a wallet address that has been lost access to just like that. Non of such have I heard before and In as much as we are all  matured and old enough to take decision, we are as well old enough to watch over our assets and properly storing it to prevent lose but however, I would say so
Just a little ideas as it is when a wallet been doing transaction, and all of a suden there has not been any transaction on that address, but there are assets still on that. It is assumed that the owner of the wallet lost access to the wallet and therefore the wallet could not be able to transact anymore. So in that case it is assumed but inconclusive as to why there has not been any transaction on that. Wallet but it holds some funds not until the ownership surfaces to clear the air with explanations. We have seen wallet that have been dormant for years and assume they have been lost access to but all of a suden they got woken and transaction takes place.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Yes, it will be a good idea to have a site that focuses on lost BTC wallet

We have one: https://bitcoin-supply.com/

The provably lost number of bitcoin numbers 2,828. Everything else is pure speculation. It doesn't matter if coins haven't moved in 1 year, 5 years, 10+ years. It doesn't matter if someone claims they've lost their private keys. Such coins are not provably lost, and you should not assume they will never move again.

This is the way blockchain analytics operate. These companies make probable statistics and predictions and a 1 year old address with no outputs is going to be put in a group they suspect to be lost.

Sorry, but this is a nonsense metric. Even addresses which are dormant for 5-10 years cannot be assumed to be lost, but only 1 year? Given that the general knowledge regarding importance of back ups and seed phrases is continually increasing, and given we know that more and more people are holding for the long term, then the vast majority of coins which have not moved in one year are simply being held.

[cafter]

The provably lost number of bitcoin numbers 2,828.

it's so low amount that we doesn't will see any big effect on market, some website said arround 4million btc are lost, is it a speculation?
it's a small disappointment for me, because it's very less compared to total supply, if really 4million were lost then it's good for bitcoin's scarcity. but disappointment for who lost them.