When to buy one time off bitcoin.

[dragonvslinux]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

There is no perfect time to buy Bitcoin, only good/bad times in the immediate term, but otherwise historically anytime is a good time to buy Bitcoin. Even buying the highs at $20K in 2017 wasn't the worst idea some years later. Truth is no-one knows for sure if Bitcoin will ever return to $20K, or even $15K, however generally buying Bitcoin when it's at a discount of 50%+ is usually a good time.

Bitcoin next halving will happen in the 1st quarter of the year 2024, which means by this time next year. People that have witnessed halving and its bull run.

Given you referenced Bitcoin's 4 year cycle, then there are two straight forward ways to trade/invest if this is what you're interested in:

1. Buy the 4 year moving average in order to get the average price over the past 4 years, without having to DCA every week for 4 years. This was around $22K in June last year and now is around $25K this month. Arguably buying at $25K this year could be more comfortable than $22K last year, as price remained below this level for over 6 months, where now it seems less downside is more likely than last year.

2. Buy after the halving, or even 6-months prior to it for example (so around end of year) if you don't want to risk missing out on a pre-havling pump*. This has also historically been a good time to invest in Bitcoin, although at the same time price could be overvalued at the end of the year compared to current prices, so there is always risk involved, but time-wise there shouldn't be too much downside.

That's just a couple of strategies that investors have used in the past, so not guarantied to be successful in the future, and otherwise shouldn't be considered financial advise 

*It's worth noting that in the last cycle many anticipated there to be a pre-halving pump, as opposed to only post-halving, because the halving would be priced in in advance after successfully increasing price after the 2016 halving. The covid crash that is largely considered a black swan event put an end to this pre-halving pump possibility, but it doesn't mean it won't happen this time around.

[South Park]

Bitcoin next halving will happen in the 1st quarter of the year 2024, which means by this time next year. People that have witnessed halving and its bull run. Please, I want to know if;

• Bull run happens few months or weeks to halving
• Or it happens few weeks or months after halving
• Or it happens simultaneously in the week or month of halving

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

The increase on the price caused by the halving is not an instantaneous process, the reason behind the price increase is that as the miners are obtaining less bitcoin for each block they mine, they become more reluctant to sell for such a low price as if they did then they will be doing so at a loss, so they increase the price at which they sell and the market reacts to this, however I will suggest that you change your attitude, as it seems as if you are trying to buy at the very bottom of the market and this is something only a fortune few are able to do.

[Vinaa77]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase.

In my personal opinion, if you want to use the one time buy Bitcoin method and hold it for a long time I might say this time you can do it, because considering the market is experiencing a price correction with a decent and relatively high percentage you can take advantage of it, now the price is at below $30k, some long term Investors I think they have done it, maybe in a few months Bitcoin will be in the $30k-$45k range.

[_BlackStar]

Stop fear and buy by 30% and buy more with any new deep, and so on, DCA's strategy is good in your case as well.

In fact, many people will still be looking for the best time to make a lump sum invest rather than DCA each new dip. Whereas DCA is the most recommended strategy when an investor doubts that the price is still too expensive to invest, in fact DCA has helped many people to buy at least a few percent of bitcoins from the total budget if the price goes increase.

But if the OP is confident of holding onto his bitcoin long term, then surely buying a lump sum now isn't such a bad thing instead of waiting for a bigger drop. So buying now is a good choice, even if you don't want to do it with lump sum. Don't get your hopes up for deeper declines when the bear market is over, meaning a new cycle is about to start.

[2double0]

I can't say about bull run, but I have seen that Bitcoin's high gets priced in every time before the halving takes place. However, it was all in the past as we saw it happening, so there is no guarantee that it'll happen again in the near future. So don't rely on the halving part and buy BTC now and sell it just before halving takes place. Then buy back again once it is oversold.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

BTC charts you will get, but absolutely it doesn't mean anything. There are no guarantees that the real chart will be just like that. You are not so naive as to believe the charts from Google, right? Even more so, to use this information for investment.

OP asked question about how previous halvings impacted the BTC price. I have delivered the answer in a form of a chart found on google. However, in the last sentence of my post i wrote that halving is not a major force that moves prices, and I even get into discussion with other bitcointalk members describing how irrelevant 4th halving is from a fundamental point of view. But you certainly know that, because you sure didn't do it so that you read only the first post, and after seeing the first picture, you started writing anything just to make another post to meet signature requirements? "you are not so naive [...], right?"

[Similificator]

It actually depends on how significant a halving would be. This will determine the popularity of the halving itself which could somehow impact the price of Bitcoin weeks prior and after the halving. The duration of the price movement upwards or downwards may also continue depending on various factors like economic or crypto related events. Anyway, I think it would be best to buy little by little when possible rather than wait till a few weeks before or after the halving. This isn't a financial advice though, just sharing what I myself would prefer to do after I figure out what the possible bottom may be in the coming weeks since it's quite hard to make decisions right now seeing how the market is currently moving.

[aryana42]

You surprise and confuse me if you haven't bought any bitcoins yet. Because the perfect time to buy bitcoin has passed, and if you are still greedy and waiting for a new bottom, you will regret it even more. In my opinion, buy now and no DCA. I believe bitcoin will still be correct, but dumping again is unlikely. We have no more black swan events to do that.

[pawel7777]

BTC charts you will get, but absolutely it doesn't mean anything. There are no guarantees that the real chart will be just like that.

Well, it's a good thing no one said that then.

You are not so naive as to believe the charts from Google, right? Even more so, to use this information for investment.

Care to share what information do you use to make investment decisions and what's your decision-making process? Don't be shy.

This is my first time of hearing this version of story. It sounds interesting and practical. It looks like what has happened before or what came out of experience. I think I will go with this in one aspect. But since I cannot actually wait till 2025, I would follow the advice of people here even when they said it is not an investment advice.
I will continue to be active here, I believe as the market continues to hover, it will be getting clearer on what actually will happen during or after the halving.

Good luck OP, but remember to set yourself realistic profit targets, decide at what point do you intend to sell and stick to it. Don't get too greedy, hitting the exact top is close to impossible, so as long as you end up with a profit - you can be happy with yourself.

[Baoo]

Well, I am pretty sure that a strong bull run will  be achieved after 4-5 months from the next halving probably in September or October 2024. In fact, in previous Bitcoin halving that’s what exactly happened , the price increased significantly  after 150 days from the event. For example in 2012 , the value of BTC went from $12 to $1000 , and in 2016 it went from $670 to  $ 2550. In conclusion the more you HODL and invest during this year, the larger returns in next 1-2 years However, nobody knows what the future will bring for Bitcoin and generally cryptocurrencies so it is pretty difficult to predict accurate prices especially in middle and long term.

[bettercrypto]

Bitcoin next halving will happen in the 1st quarter of the year 2024, which means by this time next year. People that have witnessed halving and its bull run. Please, I want to know if;

• Bull run happens few months or weeks to halving
• Or it happens few weeks or months after halving
• Or it happens simultaneously in the week or month of halving

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

The bitcoin halving can happen at any moment, that's why it remains unpredictable and most bitcoin enthusiasts in this industry know this too. Now if you don't do the dca that is your choice and maybe you have the ability to buy bitcoin in bulk.

      But among the others who do dca, maybe most of them don't buy bitcoin in large amounts, so they apply it for that anyway they have accumulated bitcoin before the halving itself comes.

[justdimin]

BTC charts you will get, but absolutely it doesn't mean anything. There are no guarantees that the real chart will be just like that. You are not so naive as to believe the charts from Google, right? Even more so, to use this information for investment.

OP asked question about how previous halvings impacted the BTC price. I have delivered the answer in a form of a chart found on google. However, in the last sentence of my post i wrote that halving is not a major force that moves prices, and I even get into discussion with other bitcointalk members describing how irrelevant 4th halving is from a fundamental point of view. But you certainly know that, because you sure didn't do it so that you read only the first post, and after seeing the first picture, you started writing anything just to make another post to meet signature requirements? "you are not so naive [...], right?"

I feel like the chart should be showing what happens near it but the reality is that after a year or so from the halving, each time it happens, the price goes up, it went up before and it could happen again. I understand that it may not be a near the halving level and it looks like maybe it has nothing to do with it when you look at that, like 2-3 months before and 2-3 months after could be calm and not really a huge deal.

But, I suggest you to look at 1 year before and 1 year after and see the changes in the price. One of the biggest examples will be this year, look at the price average this year in 2023, then look at it at 2024 and compare that to 2025. I bet you that in 2023 we will do fine, in 2024 we will do good and in 2025 we will do great, and obviously in 2026 we will do terrible again just like 2018 or in 2022 as well.

[GeorgeJohn]

I can't say about bull run, but I have seen that Bitcoin's high gets priced in every time before the halving takes place. However, it was all in the past as we saw it happening, so there is no guarantee that it'll happen again in the near future. So don't rely on the halving part and buy BTC now and sell it just before halving takes place. Then buy back again once it is oversold.

Actually bitcoin doesn't have any specific time someone can invest in Bitcoin, we can only purchase anytime we have the money to purchase Bitcoin, because you may have in mind that Bitcoin price is going up and  that's opportunity for you to buy Bitcoin, and after purchasing the price began to fall instead of rising, and same thing is applicable to when the price is on falling situation, many people emphasis that the perfect time to invest in Bitcoin is when is falling, when you rush and invest and it happened to experience bearish, so from my analysis of Bitcoin theirs no perfect time someone can invest in Bitcoin, the scenario is that anytime you have funds you can invest in Bitcoin.

[bangjoe]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

Each halving will have much less impact than the previous one, and if things rarely pan out the way that everyone expects them. After all, if we could predict such things with 100% - we'll all be rich - and that's impossible,

No one has a crystal ball to answer your question, but if you're confident that bitcoin will go up again and will at least reach its previous ath, then waiting for the potential dip makes little sense. You could buy now and still enjoy great gains if your prediction comes true. Waiting for the dip could backfire. Don't try to time the market perfectly, that's not possible.

Yes, each cycle has a different pattern, different dynamics and different price ups and downs, as well as when a bull run occurs, it will be very difficult to take into account and compare with previous cycles to draw one hundred percent conclusions and predictions, and it is true if we can take into account each phase in bitcoin with 100% accuracy maybe I am a billionaire today.

I agree, don't focus too much on thinking buying on dips because it will trick you and make the strategy look bad if the expected dips don't happen, the thing to be sure of is that we are still far from the previous ATH which means the opportunity is still wide open for gains the advantages of bitcoin basically we believe the four year cycle of bitcoin which has the lowest price point and the highest price point in each cycle.

And why doesn't the OP want to go with the DCA strategy? isn't that the most reliable strategy in a fairly volatile market situation like recently.

[Dave1]

And if the OP continues to think that the price might go to $20k or below, that chance might not come again as the price shoots up again to above $28k and maybe the bulls are going to push for another run at $30k a the end of the month to keep the market positive and green.

And so with that advise of others, it's a better strategy to really do DCA for the rest of the year at least prior to the bitcoin block halving instead of just one time buy off at a lower price that the OP is hoping for. But that opportunity might not come, just saying

[duckalis]

Typically, the price of BTC begin to rise about 6 months before a halving, and don’t change much during the halving period itself. On average, according to past periods, the price may peak 12 months after a halving.

[South Park]

And if the OP continues to think that the price might go to $20k or below, that chance might not come again as the price shoots up again to above $28k and maybe the bulls are going to push for another run at $30k a the end of the month to keep the market positive and green.

And so with that advise of others, it's a better strategy to really do DCA for the rest of the year at least prior to the bitcoin block halving instead of just one time buy off at a lower price that the OP is hoping for. But that opportunity might not come, just saying

Traders need to learn to take advantage of the opportunities the market gives them, anyone that wanted to buy bitcoin for a price below 20k had months to do it, if that is not enough time for them to take advantage of that price or if they were simply afraid of doing so, as at the time the price of bitcoin still had a very pronounced negative tendency, then they need to reconsider their decision to become traders, since they do not seem to have what is necessary to do this job in an appropriate manner.

[boyptc]

Typically, the price of BTC begin to rise about 6 months before a halving, and don’t change much during the halving period itself. On average, according to past periods, the price may peak 12 months after a halving.

And that means that it is better if months before the halving. You'll save more money and effort by that time but, you'll also need to address your goal if that's totally okay for you to buy at those rates.

While it seemingly stagnant to see movements before the halving but that's one ideal time for someone who plans to buy one time.

Either way, as long as you buy before it or even just a couple of weeks after it since effect might come several months after.

[GeorgeJohn]

Bitcoin buying does not have duration, so I believe that this incoming users of bitcoin suppose at know that you can purchase bitcoin anytime you wish to buy bitcoin, and I believe that many people have understand that, what I will encourage people to do during bitcoin investment or during the time of buying bitcoin is that Bitcoin if you are financial buoyant enough, don't hesitate to buy bitcoin as many you wishes.

[FUCKBSVFUCK]

This is another opportunity for you to buy bitcoin because in the event that you want to hold it for more years, you can invest in Bitcoin and hold it until the price crashes like today. So, you have to wait a while for the price to return to its previous state. It's always best if you bought the dip and you can hold it until it crash again. Once the bitcoin price recovers you could take it for the next bull run.