BTC Sentiment Poll for May

[kotajikikox]

There's a saying among old school traders that goes 'sell in May and go away' as historically May is a bad month for trading stocks and commodities.  They take this time to be in the side lines and evaluate what their next move is gonna be for the following month of June and beyond.  

As we're not really pros around these parts, it could be food for thought...  Dunno.  :/

It's looking like it's losing a bit of momentum tho.

the saying seems not to stand this year? because leaving may for me is a suicide since the halving is near to come and watching the market closely is what w need now.
imagine leaving your folio in dark while holding when there are many ways to purchase more now and to earn bigger in the next year.

[bitterguy28]

We Are week before May month ends but still  the value of bitcoin stays on how much it started after April so meaning that the sentiment of everyone either to go pump or low this month comes to nothing because it looks like we will stay this all 2023 and maybe some big changes to come before the end of the year or the start of at least new year, because halving is coming and yes this is game changer .

[KingsDen]

We Are week before May month ends but still  the value of bitcoin stays on how much it started after April so meaning that the sentiment of everyone either to go pump or low this month comes to nothing because it looks like we will stay this all 2023 and maybe some big changes to come before the end of the year or the start of at least new year, because halving is coming and yes this is game changer .

You sincerely did not participate in the poll, if you did you will understand that the sentiment of the majority is what happened in this month of May. You may try to visit the first page and check the result of the poll and you will understand that majority voted that BTC will move sideways which is just what happens.
There might not be major bull again till halving unless there is a powerful fundamentals to move the market in either directions.

[pooya87]

The debt ceiling will be raised, everything that is being speculated about this not being raised is only fud. However, if Jim Cramer whispers that he is quite certain that it will be raised, I think we should dump everything hehehehhe.

That's more of a debt crisis than a debt ceiling crisis because they have and will increase the ceiling and continue increasing the national debt. Part of the crisis is the rate at which it is increasing which is scary. It surpassed $30 trillion in February 2022, in just one year (that's 3 months ago) it had grown by $1.5 trillion. From February to today it grew by another $300 billion and counting!

At times like this one should appreciate bitcoin with its capped supply...

[dragonvslinux]

Sideways would be the best answer on any month 'coz the market price alone is volatile. But dominantly, the market price of Bitcoin perhaps is lower than the market value last month of February and that is because of the correction happened around $32k. I think as long as the market price of major tokens are not down by 30%, things would be fine and prices are subject to go up again few weeks or months in time.

Long bottom wicks during May 12, 17 and 18 could be telling us that some whales are trying to protect the 26k - 27k range.  We can't really be sure if they could but if they do, it could bring more bullishness back to the market and force the shorts to be flushed out and close out their trades causing even more positive price action.

The question is how long could 26k - 27k be held?  Pretty sure there are whales who are also taking the other side of the trade.

Whales could keep the market moving more positively for the rest of May, but I think retail traders are reacting too much to panic selling. In my opinion, the increasingly popular scalping strategy seems to have become problem in itself against possibly stay above $27k for May. The price is moving sideways and may tend to drop to another low due to the trader panic.

Whales will take any resulting dip due to panic traders without wanting to show any major moves in price. This is an opportunity for them on the accumulation plan, but anyway I hope the $27k will stick around for the rest of May this year.

If the price stays within the range of $26k-27k for the whole month, we will probably see some upward movement right at the beginning of the next month, but if it drops below this range, we will be seeing it going down to $23k-22k at least.

While I agree with this theory, I also think this will get confirmed on a Weekly time-frame prior to the Monthly. The 200 Week MA is around $26.1K which was tested last week and this week price is struggling to find support (bounce back to the upside) from this level. So if next week this MA is re-tested and fails to act as support, price can slide further to the downside before the month comes to a close.

I'm not particularly concerned as there is a lot of accumulation volume around $23K, and potentially even $25K will act as support, given it was previous resistance for many months. But to me the idea of $27K holding as support (like it has for the past 2 months) looks increasingly unlikely as price is struggling to maintain above this level. Only a strong rebound next week can turn the situation around quickly imo.

Touching the support will already create a tendency for a reversal. What we've witneesed this year is total market manipulation by huge investors; having huge pumps and dumps without any strong reason.

What evidence do you have of this market manipulation? I've seen little to no market manipulation this year, at least not on longer-term time-frames (ignoring short-term wicks), can enlighten me?

The big moves we can see this year can all be very easily explained by normal market behaviour, a few examples:

* Breaking above $18K leads to a quick re-test of $20K, as the breakout target is around 10% to the upside, as confirmation that bears unable to push prices lower
* Breaking above $20K leads to trend reversal (above 200 Day MA for first time since 2021), therefore momentum increases until price reaches $25K resistance
* Price corrects from $25K to $20K to the 0.382 fib retracement level from recent rally, back to the 200 Day MA to re-test it as support, the most predictable outcome
* Price rebounds strong from support as the bull trend is further confirmed, breaking through $25K (after third test of resistance) and reaches $30K resistance level.
* Price consolidates above previous resistance of $25K and below current resistance of $30K. Volatility remains low, indicating lack of manipulation.

That's just a few examples. The type of price movement is expected in the Bitcoin market after consolidation in a range for 6-9 months.

And with that, ofcourse they won't simply let the price slide too low not unless something of a big news would happen that will negatively affect the demand towards this industry.

If there is to be market manipulation, it will be pushing prices lower, not higher, in order for whales to re-accumulate at lower levels. Right now the expected support is from previous resistance around $25K, or the accumulation zone of $23K, so the "manipulation" would need to be a push much lower that what is likely, such as sub $20K. Everything else is just normal price corrections within an uptrend.

[_BlackStar]

There might not be major bull again till halving unless there is a powerful fundamentals to move the market in either directions.

Yes - but of course things can change so quickly. Historically there shouldn't be much bullishness during June - December, but a recovery in bitcoin price can be expected. May has been a month that has basically proved the sideways sentiment right – but some minor moves can also be expected to test the $28k resistance.

I expect $29k to be broken before May ends or at least a green candle can be created for 1 month TF. It's a small chance, but bitcoin should be able to do something even if the predictions go in a different direction.

[bbc.reporter]

The debt ceiling will be raised, everything that is being speculated about this not being raised is only fud. However, if Jim Cramer whispers that he is quite certain that it will be raised, I think we should dump everything hehehehhe.

That's more of a debt crisis than a debt ceiling crisis because they have and will increase the ceiling and continue increasing the national debt. Part of the crisis is the rate at which it is increasing which is scary. It surpassed $30 trillion in February 2022, in just one year (that's 3 months ago) it had grown by $1.5 trillion. From February to today it grew by another $300 billion and counting!

They clearly do not care about the country's debt hehehe. There are also some Democrats who propose that Biden should exercise his authority from the 14th amendment which arguably might allow the president to cancel the debt ceiling for good heheheee. However, I reckon the Democrats might only be using it as posturing tactic to pressure Kevin McCarthy and the Republicans to agree on a deal.

[Smack That Ace]

()
maybe some big changes to come before the end of the year or the start of at least new year, because halving is coming and yes this is game changer .

Historically, the halving has been a game changer, but if I remember correctly, the bull season will only come a while after the halving, the bulls will only come a year later. If things repeat, we won't have the positive movement many are expecting with the halving. I remember, when bitcoin recovered from $3k to $12k in 2019, and before the halving, bitcoin also dropped to $4k again. If history were to repeat itself, more people would be disappointed than excited about having to wait another year.

[tokeweed]

I am not surprised that the price at this point in the month is in line with the poll, which was slightly bullish but trending sideways. It looks like we are in a dull phase and will remain so for a while, but as we get closer to the halving the price will tend to go up to come the best after the halving. In the meantime, let's wait and see.

Price has been trending side ways and slightly down.  Monthly chart shows BTC is down by a tad over 8% so far for May.  It's not that bad but I'm starting to see some guys becoming a little bit bearish as they're expecting more chop if 26.5k doesn't hold.  I guess it could be seen as a good thing...  At least for me it is, as it could be that time in the market when BTC needs to drop down befor it could go up.  Dunno...  But from the looks of it, there's just not enough buyers at the current range.

[lixer]

Touching the support will already create a tendency for a reversal. What we've witneesed this year is total market manipulation by huge investors; having huge pumps and dumps without any strong reason. And with that, ofcourse they won't simply let the price slide too low not unless something of a big news would happen that will negatively affect the demand towards this industry.

If it was really investors who were manipulating the market all this time, then the manipulators have probably achieved what they wanted because the market has been pretty stable for quite some time now, I don't even have a count for the days since the price of Bitcoin has been within the range of $26k and $28k and it is still right there.

Market makers will need to show us some movement either positive or negative because this is getting too boring now. We should either see a further drop so that we can buy more or it should start going up so that panic sellers get some hope.

[_BlackStar]

If it was really investors who were manipulating the market all this time, then the manipulators have probably achieved what they wanted because the market has been pretty stable for quite some time now, I don't even have a count for the days since the price of Bitcoin has been within the range of $26k and $28k and it is still right there.

Market manipulation is made possible mainly by whale who have large sums of money. They will not announce profits for any reason even if they have made big or small profits, but manipulation does exist.

In fact, the bitcoin market is still very mobile, whether it's a matter of bullish or dump prices. It's easy for people to panic when lots of bitcoins are transferred to exchanges, while FOMO also often rushes traders when large amounts of USDT or stable coins are known to hit exchanges. These two things are part of the manipulation of big investors or whales, so I think manipulation is always possible regardless of whether they are successful or not.

Market makers will need to show us some movement either positive or negative because this is getting too boring now. We should either see a further drop so that we can buy more or it should start going up so that panic sellers get some hope.

The sideway can still be expected for the rest of May, but may remain the same through June if there is no change in trend.

[KingsDen]

There might not be major bull again till halving unless there is a powerful fundamentals to move the market in either directions.

Yes - but of course things can change so quickly. Historically there shouldn't be much bullishness during June - December, but a recovery in bitcoin price can be expected. May has been a month that has basically proved the sideways sentiment right – but some minor moves can also be expected to test the $28k resistance.

I expect $29k to be broken before May ends or at least a green candle can be created for 1 month TF. It's a small chance, but bitcoin should be able to do something even if the predictions go in a different direction.

Yea, some minor moves can also be expected but it will be within the 26k and 27k window. I do not see bitcoin exceed 28k this month. However, from the first week of next month, bitcoin will make a push above the 28k resistance. The consolidation is much and it has to release it's first upper shoulder leg. That will give profit to people who bought within this side movement times. Then, the small green movement will not last long and correct again to the 25k to 27k range.

[Odusko]

May is almost at it final lap and just few days before we enterr into June which has always been a month of high resistancefor bitcoin and market attribute that has always accompanied June is the high resistance of its price to breakout, just as we have seen how many times Bitcoin tried to break some benchmark without a breakthrough, we saw how bitcoin struggled to retain the 39m benchmark which didn't happen and also how the price couldn't hold up at 28-29k.
So June will not be that much different and there is the possibility that more downtrends could occur, but the uptrend bitcoin market may face some resistance.

[bbc.reporter]

The debt ceiling will be raised, everything that is being speculated about this not being raised is only fud. However, if Jim Cramer whispers that he is quite certain that it will be raised, I think we should dump everything hehehehhe.

At times like this one should appreciate bitcoin with its capped supply...

Also, this preoccupation over the capped supply like this is the solution for a country's economic problem might be a mistake. It might also be naive because it is difficult to create and maintain a growing economy without increasing the money supply in occurrences where the economy is expanding.

In any case, I reckon limited supply is good if the objective is to make a store of value, however, it would be difficult for something like this to become the foundation of a monetary system.

[dragonvslinux]

Well looks like May will end in the red as is currently at -8.5% with 5 days to go. Notably it will be the first red month this year after 4 months of upside, so hardly surprising to see a correction. I don't find it particularly bearish as it's less than -10%, instead of -20% or -30% that is always a possibility in Bitcoin for a monthly candle. Price does remains above the 50 Month MA however that continues to rise in bullish fashion.

[tokeweed]

^  Yup.  It has to go down at some point...  And it's a good thing.  There's a lot more money in the sidelines waiting to go in but hasn't had the right conditions to dive in yet.

Like what I said in a post prior, could go down around 24k - 25k, even deviate lower to 23k, before break out above 31k.

Something like this.  Forgive my squiggly line, I suck at this...  Lol.

[Dave1]

()
maybe some big changes to come before the end of the year or the start of at least new year, because halving is coming and yes this is game changer .

Historically, the halving has been a game changer, but if I remember correctly, the bull season will only come a while after the halving, the bulls will only come a year later. If things repeat, we won't have the positive movement many are expecting with the halving. I remember, when bitcoin recovered from $3k to $12k in 2019, and before the halving, bitcoin also dropped to $4k again. If history were to repeat itself, more people would be disappointed than excited about having to wait another year.

Yes, it's after the halving, maybe it will take weeks or months, but per history tells us that it will definitely going to happen. The price did go down to $3k that time in March due to covid-19 and then the halving occur in May, then after that the price goes up on a parabolic rise.

So there could be factors that time that might have affected the price going down hard before the halving. And we don't know if we will have that parameters soon, maybe another black swan event? We don't know.

[fzkto]

Well looks like May will end in the red as is currently at -8.5% with 5 days to go. Notably it will be the first red month this year after 4 months of upside, so hardly surprising to see a correction. I don't find it particularly bearish as it's less than -10%, instead of -20% or -30% that is always a possibility in Bitcoin for a monthly candle. Price does remains above the 50 Month MA however that continues to rise in bullish fashion.

This May really didn't turn out as badly as many expected. 8% is not much for bitcoin, considering that sometimes such fluctuations happen in one day. However, summer is usually not the best time for cryptocurrencies, so it is likely that this correction could continue for a few more months. But I don't think we are in for another bear season.

[Silberman]

Historically, the halving has been a game changer, but if I remember correctly, the bull season will only come a while after the halving, the bulls will only come a year later. If things repeat, we won't have the positive movement many are expecting with the halving. I remember, when bitcoin recovered from $3k to $12k in 2019, and before the halving, bitcoin also dropped to $4k again. If history were to repeat itself, more people would be disappointed than excited about having to wait another year.

Yes, it's after the halving, maybe it will take weeks or months, but per history tells us that it will definitely going to happen. The price did go down to $3k that time in March due to covid-19 and then the halving occur in May, then after that the price goes up on a parabolic rise.

So there could be factors that time that might have affected the price going down hard before the halving. And we don't know if we will have that parameters soon, maybe another black swan event? We don't know.

How to forget that drop, before the drop caused by the pandemic the price was doing fine and then out of nowhere it dropped like a rock, and who knows maybe we could face another big event which could make the price of bitcoin to go down, however one of the things the pandemic proved is that even if the price of bitcoin went down it was only temporary, as the price went up again as if nothing was happening and the previous all time high was surpassed with ease.

[BITCOIN4X]

This May really didn't turn out as badly as many expected. 8% is not much for bitcoin, considering that sometimes such fluctuations happen in one day.

It really depends on how many bitcoins you have. You would lose $2400 for -8% if you had 1 bitcoin you bought for $30k. The higher your purchase price, the more you lose. This must have had an impact on the psychology of holders because automatically such a downturn has made the value of the bitcoins in their portfolio go down. Of course not everyone will think that way, but it is thought by most people who are easily affected by volatility.

The percentage decline will not always be taken for granted by traders especially if they are not able to fully consider market volatility. Traders panic and will even sell when they lose, so of course the size of the percentage decrease will be considered differently from one trader to another.