Halving effects, how long they will last?

[hatshepsut93]

A few more cycles and over 99% of supply will be mined. Inflation would hardly matter at that point, so the halvening of an already small inflation should not cause a bull run. But it could be that a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy tradition will become established and bull runs will still keep happening, just because everyone will think "it happened in the past, so it will happen again, so it's better to buy Bitcoin before the halvening".

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[STT]

It could be said the cycle has a momentum of its own at this point.  People speculate, they over do it and the market will flush out to find the base price for BTC.   Then the cycle restarts again, most of the gains for halvening arguably should be taken as the anticipation of the event.  I think we took off after 2020 because of the amount of money printing in Dollar that went on, that isnt crypto but it is the most common denomination when selling BTC hence price rose due to excessive Dollar supply and this quite slight contraction in supply of BTC.

[ilovealtcoins]

People are looking forward to and waiting for the halving event to welcome another bull season. But if that doesn't happen, history is changed, that would be an interesting thing. The story of bitcoin collapse, dead bitcoin will spread in the market, and people will start panicking, pessimistic...It's really a situation that I believe a lot of people haven't thought of because they're all daydreaming about bitcoin hitting ATH after the halving, no one has thought of that negative yet.

[Husires]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

The rule is simple, you have demand and supply, both of which are the main drivers in determining the price. The halving has an effect as it will affect the supply side, and therefore if there is stability in demand or an increase in demand, the price will move to adjust this imbalance.

This will not happen within a day or a week, but on average from a period of 6 months to a year and a half, and it may not happen due to circumstances, but the effect on supply still affects the price as long as there is demand.

Historical data has shown that the demand for Bitcoin has increased, and therefore there is no reason why the price should not increase accordingly.

[Poker Player]

My take: each halving, the supply reduction is less, which means it has a smaller effect on the price. But don't underestimate the power of expectation: if enough people expect something, it can still happen.
My personal expectation (based on the price history, so no guarantees): we'll see a new ATH a year after the next halving.

I too expect that little by little the price increases in percentage terms will be reduced, but not only because of the lesser effect of reduced halvings supplies, but also because as the price and market cap go up it is harder to move the price, more and more capital is needed.

The same thing happens with companies, small caps tend to move more and as they succeed and consolidate, their price and market cap rise and the price stabilizes.

[Kadal Ijo]

Halving days have happened a few times and the price has automatically increased, the first time I experienced a halving day was in 2016, when the price could increase more than 200%, and if 2024 there was another halving day and the initial year price could reach at least $50k then the halving day could be at least $100k.

[xSkylarx]

This really depends on the investors or the buyers because, in every halving, the rewards decrease, meaning it becomes more valuable, but if the investors won't be buying bitcoin, then there is still no effect. It is still the cycle of buying and selling, but again, in the past halving, we've seen a lot of people adopting it, and until now, it keeps increasing, so the price will still increase as long as people or countries are adopting it.

[Kelvinid]

Halving won't last long because after the bull season, the drop is really what we expect and another market struggle waiting for another 4 years and another halving.

This really depends on the investors or the buyers because, in every halving, the rewards decrease, meaning it becomes more valuable, but if the investors won't be buying bitcoin, then there is still no effect. It is still the cycle of buying and selling, but again, in the past halving, we've seen a lot of people adopting it, and until now, it keeps increasing, so the price will still increase as long as people or countries are adopting it.

Actually, many people had come before halving but then just leave after the bull market and after selling their coins. Then most of these people will turn back in the next halving. In this case, as long as the scheduled halving which is every 4 years, the situation will remain and I see how important is halving the crypto space as it brings more investors, newcomers, and another chance for new ATH every cycle.

[YUriy1991]

Halving events are a fundamental factor. Halving events have historically been followed by bull runs, there is no guarantee that this pattern will continue indefinitely. Halving events in Bitcoin are programmatic features that occur every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. This reduces the reward given to miners for solving half a block, from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, ultimately reducing the supply of new Bitcoins created.

This reduction in supply has historically led to a decrease in selling pressure on the market, resulting in an increase in the price of Bitcoin. However, the market is complex and is influenced by many factors, such as investor sentiment, economic conditions and government regulations. how long does the halving last? in my opinion Halving effects in the cryptocurrency market can last for several months or even years.

[be.open]

Theymos wrote this in 2020:

Some have said that this halving won't have as much effect as the last two, but it's still a reduction in monetary inflation from 3.7%/yr to 1.8%/yr, which is far from nothing, and in fact I see it as permanently bringing BTC out of the inflationary era and into the deflationary era. I'm not sure that we'll see 20k again in 2020 (though it could happen), but I think that 10k+ is quite likely several months after the halving. Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

My take: each halving, the supply reduction is less, which means it has a smaller effect on the price. But don't underestimate the power of expectation: if enough people expect something, it can still happen.
My personal expectation (based on the price history, so no guarantees): we'll see a new ATH a year after the next halving.

If you look at the situation from the point of view of bitcoin mining, then each halving cuts the reward per block found by exactly half, therefore, to compensate for the resulting imbalance, the market price of bitcoin must also grow exactly by half, regardless of whether it is the second halving or the fifth. Of course, this is an overly simplified understanding of the issue, given the fluctuations in the hash rate in the network, the uneven production cost in different regions of the globe, and a bunch of other factors. But talking about the fair market price of bitcoin cannot be conducted without taking into account the interests of the miners who maintain the stable performance of the bitcoin network.

By the way, the current price of bitcoin looks quite fair from this point of view - if you add up the cost of bitcoin mining in the United States (and the United States is number one in the world in terms of bitcoin hashrate) plus a reasonable rate of return for mining companies, taking into account equipment depreciation.

[Lucius]

Halving still has a great psychological meaning, although the numbers change over time and at one point in less than 10 years we will have 99% of Bitcoin mined and that 1% (210 000 BTC) will no longer be something that will mean much to the miners or to some next halving. Of course, we should not wait so long to feel that the effects of halving will weaken, although as mentioned in previous posts, halving is one constant that will probably continue to play a role for many "investors".

I remember the halving in 2016 well and it stayed in my memory, and I remember the one from 2020 (although not so well), and honestly the one that will happen in 2024 is not too important to me.

[CageMabok]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

I don't know when the chain will break, but for different levels of bullishness there will probably be a halving when the halving will occur, because the four-year cycle may be almost similar to the previous one, but for the level of the bull market it will never be the same. But for the near future I don't think bulls will come easily because the conditions for Bitcoin's own movement in the market still look heavy in general.

[el kaka22]

After halving miners can't make enough money if the price stays the same after the halving. It means that they won't mine, or they will simply sell for higher. This results with market not being flooded by cheaper prices that miners used to could profit from, and instead filled with higher prices for miners to make money from.

This makes it go up, not right away, because they have some saved aside obviously, but after a while it has to go up. This is just one part of it of course, there are a lot of other reasons too but this is a main reason for it to go up. Think about how much bitcoin is mined per day and how much money that makes, it's normal for these people to decide the market, maybe in a single day it is not, but think per month or per year, it's in billions.

[be.open]

After halving miners can't make enough money if the price stays the same after the halving. It means that they won't mine, or they will simply sell for higher. This results with market not being flooded by cheaper prices that miners used to could profit from, and instead filled with higher prices for miners to make money from.

This makes it go up, not right away, because they have some saved aside obviously, but after a while it has to go up. This is just one part of it of course, there are a lot of other reasons too but this is a main reason for it to go up. Think about how much bitcoin is mined per day and how much money that makes, it's normal for these people to decide the market, maybe in a single day it is not, but think per month or per year, it's in billions.

The influence of miners on the price of bitcoin is not dominant, but it is stupidity to underestimate it. If only because bitcoin, due to the open architecture of its blockchain, does not have the important property of interchangeability of coins. Therefore, zero-history miner reward coins will always have an increased value in the eyes of investors of a certain class.

[Mahanton]

Theymos wrote this in 2020:

Some have said that this halving won't have as much effect as the last two, but it's still a reduction in monetary inflation from 3.7%/yr to 1.8%/yr, which is far from nothing, and in fact I see it as permanently bringing BTC out of the inflationary era and into the deflationary era. I'm not sure that we'll see 20k again in 2020 (though it could happen), but I think that 10k+ is quite likely several months after the halving. Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

My take: each halving, the supply reduction is less, which means it has a smaller effect on the price. But don't underestimate the power of expectation: if enough people expect something, it can still happen.
My personal expectation (based on the price history, so no guarantees): we'll see a new ATH a year after the next halving.

If you look at the situation from the point of view of bitcoin mining, then each halving cuts the reward per block found by exactly half, therefore, to compensate for the resulting imbalance, the market price of bitcoin must also grow exactly by half, regardless of whether it is the second halving or the fifth. Of course, this is an overly simplified understanding of the issue, given the fluctuations in the hash rate in the network, the uneven production cost in different regions of the globe, and a bunch of other factors. But talking about the fair market price of bitcoin cannot be conducted without taking into account the interests of the miners who maintain the stable performance of the bitcoin network.

By the way, the current price of bitcoin looks quite fair from this point of view - if you add up the cost of bitcoin mining in the United States (and the United States is number one in the world in terms of bitcoin hashrate) plus a reasonable rate of return for mining companies, taking into account equipment depreciation.

If there would be no increase in value or in price then it would really be mostly be or be mainly be affecting those miners which it would really be indeed creating that imbalance on what you are saying.This is why it is really that hard to believe that there would be no pumps specially if the block rewards is been cut in half but the demand do keeps increasing then it would be understandable on where it would be going.
All of us do really expect about on the halving event on which this one is the most anticipated event when Bitcoin halving do happen where bull run what comes next or something that people been
really sticking their eyes on. How long it would last? No one really knows because we cant really be sure on when bull run do happen or ending it up. This is why you should really be that wise
on taking up profits on the time the price had touched up peak.

How to determine peak? There's no way on doing so because sky is the limit. Just dont make yourself get caught on when the bear market hits and wait up for another cycle.

[doomloop]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

I never even thought about it, I still believe that history will repeat itself until we make new history. Thinking too much about the future can't bring us more positive results, so I don't want to overthink it.

The halving was one of the factors that helped drive bitcoin's new ATH, but it's not the only one. We still have many other factors to drive the growth of bitcoin such as supply and demand, government recognition of bitcoin...We still have many factors to expect bitcoin to create many new ATHs in the future.

You never thought of what? Both the halving and bull run? You are different from the majority then. For us both of them are important because a bull run is where you sell your coins. Halving can also help trigger the bull but halving is more important to Bitcoin because this is what its developers intend to. History does repeats itself including here in Bitcoin. Often times there are threads that compares the current year from the past year.

If I am not mistaken, this year, is compared to 2019. It's okay to think of the future because it helps you prepare for it. Just don't think about of the negatives because you will only worry. Indeed, BTC isn't tied in halving. There is no such chain @OP so I hope you're okay now?

[ItsCrafty]

Yes it's true that halving occurs after four years but as everyone knows very well that next moment of crypto market is unpredictable so we don't have exact information about the halving. It is according to the estimation that halving will take place in 2024 but when it is not possible to predict.

The hopes of crypto enthusiasts are sustain and they think that halving will occur because from previous years it occurs regularly so whenever the halving occurs price changes from negative towards positive. Halving will occurs in next year but its not 100 percent sure so just focus on investment if unfortunately having doesn't take place so bitcoin is a type of coin which doesn't go more in dip.

[Jating]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Well they already said that the chain is going to be broken after our last bull run, their theory is that we will have a super cycle. However, if we won't see a new all time high this year (prior to the halving), then chain is not broken.

Which means that post-halving, we might still some good price movement and then the bubble is going to be burst in 2025, just like what we have seen in the past. Yeah, past performance is not indicative of future success, but so far the bear/bull cycle is in effect every 4 years in bitcoin market. So for me, at least at this point, bitcoin halving is the catalyst for a eventual bull run.

[GeorgeJohn]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Some of us just believe on mere speculation, and I we believe the speculation of people that we are about to venture into bullrun, whosoever that want to give us hope entering bullrun soon should give us his method of observation or analysis so that we can as well understand exactly what the problem is all about concerning the bearish and bullrun, but none of the people can give a cogent reason or point while we are expecting or about to go into a bullrun. I believe that that the brain behind a bullrun is "very visible to the blind" because it's understandable that bullrun comes as result of multiple demands of cryptocurrency or we emphasis particularly to bitcoin, when the gravity of demands in bitcoin if is absolutely higher than the supply in the marketcap, it shows that their is every tendency that bitcoin market will become bearish, so let us do not depends on previous occurrence of bitcoin, and have the mindset that it's rotational or a continuous process in bitcoin acceleration.

[Reid]

FOMO will happen so expect a before and after fluctuating effects. Also, do monitor the FUD that will come out because I doubt they will keep silent once the halving is near. They will try to manipulate the market by spreading false news and some investors with soft hands will bite it and panic sell expecting what was predicted can happen.
2 months before and 2 months after, be wary of those days because any day, hours, or minutes a change in price could happen. Those who have seen it will know what to do. In my case, I am now investing with lots of coffees in my stock room.