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Author Topic: effect of a million bitcoins  (Read 240 times)
cafter (OP)
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May 22, 2023, 03:29:48 PM
Last edit: June 08, 2023, 11:55:45 AM by cafter
 #1

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically..., because no one have even 2% in one wallet)
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May 22, 2023, 03:33:49 PM
 #2

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically for now because no one have even 2% in one wallet)
It would dump the market of course. But I doubt you could sell a 1million bitcoin in one transaction like for example on dex also with cex since the liquidity might not be enough to handle such volume.  This could be done in series of transactions but are you implying that Satoshi would sell his bitcoin in 1 swoop? I doubt it.

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May 22, 2023, 03:45:09 PM
 #3

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically for now because no one have even 2% in one wallet)

The bitcoin market will turn centralized which is not possible, there will be manipulations by the giant whales in determining the bitcoin price.

It also depends on the medium in which such individual is sending from, if it's through an exchange then it depends on the policies and they make for the minimum and maximum deposit or withdrawal capacity, if its an transaction from a Cold storage then i think that they should be able to accommodate more higher rate than the exchanges, but let's say the reality, no one can hodl upto that amount not even in El-Savador where bitcoin is a legal tender, the beauty of bitcoin lies in holding it in every channel of distribution across the world and not by a single mother entity.
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May 22, 2023, 04:09:12 PM
Merited by The Sceptical Chymist (3)
 #4

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically for now because no one have even 2% in one wallet)
Which bitcoin address have you traced to have 1 million BTC? There is none that I have heard of.

It would dump the market of course. But I doubt you could sell a 1million bitcoin in one transaction like for example on dex also with cex since the liquidity might not be enough to handle such volume.  This could be done in series of transactions but are you implying that Satoshi would sell his bitcoin in 1 swoop? I doubt it.
What if the person send bitcoin from a noncustodial wallet to another noncustodial wallet? If traced to an exchange is when it might lead to bear market.

The bitcoin market will turn centralized which is not possible, there will be manipulations by the giant whales in determining the bitcoin price.
It can not centralise the bitcoin market, it will only cause price drop if the person send to different exchanges and exchange the coin to fiat. But the market will survive this.

We should know that this is just not what can happen in reality, no wallet holds such huge amount of coins.  Binance which is an exchange that has highest bitcoin deposit in a cold wallet address which is not even for them but for Binance users, has 252597 BTC on the cold wallet address.

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May 22, 2023, 04:42:46 PM
 #5

In the bitcoin Network the effect will not be big, it will be just one more transaction in the blockchain and it will get confirmed just as any other transaction. But the real effect would be on the markets, a big panic would come to the markets because if someone decides to sell that 1M btc the dump in the price would be massive, that's why people would try to sell their coins before the whale do it.

And some interesting data is: The only user who could make a 1M bitcoins transactions would be Satoshi Nakamoto.

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May 22, 2023, 05:13:35 PM
 #6

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically for now because no one have even 2% in one wallet)
All eyes will be on it but the media will look upon how much the fee was paid for that transfer. I would make a little scare but that's just temporal and it will be back again to the usual.

That's how these huge transfers are making a noise whenver they've been broadcasted by the media as if it's the one that moves the market. Maybe but the least and that's what I think what will happen but it won't be that much.

I know this is just like an "IF" situation and matter but who's gonna have that huge transaction aside from satoshi?

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May 22, 2023, 05:33:05 PM
 #7

No effect on the network at all, only I think if the sender is kind enough to set a very high fee for the miner's reward (as a billionaire) say 1000BTC for a single transaction, then it will probably be a record in bitcoin mining history using current price conversion.

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May 22, 2023, 05:55:59 PM
 #8

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically for now because no one have even 2% in one wallet)

Miners have problem with people wanting to have all the benefit when they refuse to increase the fees and that is the effect. In coinbase you can transfer 1,000 dollar with $10 , with P2P maybe you do less fees. If you are ready to allow miners feeding fat from the amount you will see fast transaction, lines will collapse for you and ants will lick your sugar  Grin
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May 22, 2023, 05:58:16 PM
 #9

The only effect this’d have on Bitcoin is a psychological one and as a consequence, maybe a short term price change.

It’s not like it matters to Bitcoin whether there’s 1 sat moving or a million BTC. This doesn’t overload the network or anything, so besides the displayed number there’s no real issue. I believe it doesn’t change anything about how centralized Bitcoin is either.. after all, for what we know maybe today there already is somebody owning a million BTC but in different wallets.
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May 22, 2023, 08:00:30 PM
 #10

This is a fantasy scenario. Who could send a million bitcoins in a single transaction?

But assuming that this happened and the bitcoin was transferred from one wallet to another, I do not think anything will happen except that it will cause panic in the market as a result of this abnormal movement.

As for the assumption of transferring one million bitcoins to a central exchange, such a scenario is not expected to happen for many reasons, the most important of which are security reasons. No one risks sending such an imaginary number at once to one central exchange.

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May 22, 2023, 08:36:28 PM
 #11

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically for now because no one have even 2% in one wallet)

If you just send 1,000,000 bitcoins (or 100,000 bitcoins, which is more realistic) from one address to another address, then there will be no negative consequences for the bitcoin network. 

Yes, such a deal will not go unnoticed by bloggers and crypto enthusiasts.  This event will be discussed in the blogosphere and media for several days.  But over time, everyone will forget about this event. 

As for the sale of 1,000,000 million bitcoins, this is a more important event for the crypto industry. 

After all, in a sale and purchase transaction there is always a seller and a buyer.  Therefore, the question arises - who made the decision to buy 1,000,000 bitcoins at the same time?

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May 22, 2023, 08:47:14 PM
 #12

It'd probably "spook" the market if there was a tx with 1m Bitcoin, but at the same time I doubt it would be a transaction to an exchange as there simply isn't the liquidity for selling that quantity, only via OTC would be possible over time, as there is only around 70K Bitcoin buy orders across exchanges right now. Also not convinced there is anyone (apart from Satoshi who wouldn't do that) who has that many Bitcoins.

At most Binance have around 400K across a few different cold storage wallets. But unless they went into liquidation then this wouldn't hit the market anytime soon. I otherwise just checked and the largest ever transaction appears to be 161.5K Bitcoin ($1.1 billion at time of transfer), although this may well be by dollar amount as opposed to Bitcoin domination.

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May 22, 2023, 08:48:28 PM
 #13

on a very limited temporary short term basis it would be a "storm in a teacup" there would be
so much talk and speculation about it, it would seem almost to be the only thing which would
be happening.

On the network -  it would just get confirmed just like any other Bitcoin transcation.

But yea, who is going to sell and buy 1,000,000 Bitcoin now or in the future, I could see it
happening about 10 years ago though.

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May 22, 2023, 09:32:14 PM
 #14

1.The large amount of data associated with such a large transaction can lead to increased load on the bitcoin network. If the network cannot process this amount of data efficiently, it can lead to delays in transaction processing and longer confirmation times.
The data associated with a transaction is unrelated to the amount being transacted. A transaction of $100 worth of BTC can have a higher transaction size than one of $1,000,000 worth of BTC.
What determines the size of a transaction are the inputs primarily and also the outputs along with the type of wallets used.

2.Such a large transaction can take up a significant amount of block space. If the block size is limited (as it is now in the case of bitcoin), the transaction may not fit in one block. In this case, the sender may be forced to charge a higher fee in order to attract the attention of miners and ensure faster processing.
Again, the amount does not determine the transaction size.

3.Typically, the time it takes to confirm a transaction on the bitcoin network depends on the number of confirmations the transaction receives from miners.
The time it takes to confirm a transaction is the time it takes for the block it is in to be added to the blockchain and it is averagely 10 minutes per block. The size of transactions in a block does not affect the block being added to the chain.

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May 22, 2023, 09:36:40 PM
 #15

No effect on the network at all, only I think if the sender is kind enough to set a very high fee for the miner's reward (as a billionaire) say 1000BTC for a single transaction, then it will probably be a record in bitcoin mining history using current price conversion.

Fine anyone ca hodl upto such amount but i also think about it im this direction that it's too much, bitcoin is a currency that has to be evenly distributed across the world that everyone will have access to it utilization, if those mining it aren't greedy enough to cease them to their own favour and hodl or inflate the price then i don't think those holding it as well can make any difference than to sell from what the market gives
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May 23, 2023, 09:17:50 AM
 #16

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically for now because no one have even 2% in one wallet)
Which bitcoin address have you traced to have 1 million BTC? There is none that I have heard of.

Eventually the biggest stake holder of bitcoin ever is Satoshi who is owning about 1 Million bitcoins but its not in a single address if I am not wrong and also I don't think he will ever come and use those bitcoins cause he vanished from being existence for over a decade.

So for now anyone apart from Satoshi can do such transaction and 1 million bitcoin can't be spent in 1 transaction technically cause one block will not be enough to hold that much weight so that's the effect we can see on the network.

But talking about price then surely it will shake the market and create FUD and that's it because its not going to make any long term effects.

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May 23, 2023, 10:15:17 AM
 #17

The circulating supply is 19 million coins, and some coins are likely to be lost, so let's say 1 million is 7% of the total. It's a huge transaction, for sure, and a transfer like that would make the news and cause a lot of speculation. But if it's literally just sending BTC from one wallet to another (which doesn't have to mean that someone's selling the coins at all), then I only imagine it would congest the network, maybe cause a spike in transaction fees (ChatGPT says this assumption makes sense because a larger transaction occupies more block space, but I see some in the thread have a different opinion).
In any case, there's no reason for the price to go down in this situation because the movement of coins doesn't mean they're being sold. I think the impact on the price depends on the details and how the news is framed. If it's framed as some old legendary address suddenly getting alive, people can get excited rather than feel panic over it, but if it's framed as a huge dump of coins by a whale, then it can lead to panic.

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May 23, 2023, 10:17:07 AM
 #18

on a very limited temporary short term basis it would be a "storm in a teacup" there would be
so much talk and speculation about it, it would seem almost to be the only thing which would
be happening.

On the network -  it would just get confirmed just like any other Bitcoin transcation.

But yea, who is going to sell and buy 1,000,000 Bitcoin now or in the future, I could see it
happening about 10 years ago though.
Indeed, simply moving funds can give rise to various speculations. However, when transferring 1 million BTC to an exchange wallet, it would cause a massive frenzy. Even Binance's wallet, which holds only about 25% of that amount of Bitcoin, would feel like confronting a monstrous entity when dealing with such a substantial sum of money.
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May 23, 2023, 10:19:31 AM
 #19

what will be the effect on network and different technical metrics, if anyone sent 1 millions bitcoins in 1 transaction (hypothetically for now because no one have even 2% in one wallet)
Effect on the network and technical issue, it won't create any problem because Bitcoin transaction fee depends on transaction size and fee rate. Fee rate is chosen by the sender or receiver if you need to use Child-Pay-For-Parent. Transaction size depends on inputs and outputs, and type of transaction (address type too). Transaction size does not depend on how many bitcoin is sent in that transaction.

One problem is if you have 1 million bitcoins, you don't care about transaction fee and can use very high fee rate to troll others. However, if you only do it with one transaction, it won't create issue in mempool because your transaction will be only one of many other transaction in one Bitcoin block. It won't create any problem in long term.

Transaction fee on Bitcoin blockchain won't be charged like bank transfer like if you make a bigger transaction in value, you will be charged more bank transfer fee.

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May 23, 2023, 10:23:45 AM
 #20

There should be no significant changes in the network since the Bitcoin network should be strong enough to handle a transaction with a high volume and high fees, the miner who gets to mine that block which is containing this transaction will surely have a great time since higher fees will be paid for that based on the size of the transaction.

If someone tries to sell that many Bitcoins in a centralized exchange, then that could become an issue and it can make the price crash or it will move however the person owning those Bitcoins wants it to move since manipulation will be pretty easy with that.

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