Failed DCA Strategy When Buying Bitcoin

[Natalim]

If this guy went out and stopped trading and took that big loss, then maybe he really did let go of the loss. But I think he just needs to change and plan a better strategy especially the potential for better bitcoin after the halving can be expected. Of course I don't think this guy has quit forever and tried something else, but maybe he's just waiting for the right moment to move on.

But with that long, I'm sure that person had already seen the best strategy. And yes, I don't think also that this person stopped but a possible scenario is that he/she moves all the funds to another wallet for the safe keep. Because I believe that this person knows what his/her doing and probably saved it waiting for the perfect time to sell and who knows, he/she is also waiting for the next bull run and selling all of it.

Experienced investors don't easily lose, that's what my take. And they will find the best way to survive, not by quitting.

[Lanatsa]

If this guy went out and stopped trading and took that big loss, then maybe he really did let go of the loss. But I think he just needs to change and plan a better strategy especially the potential for better bitcoin after the halving can be expected. Of course I don't think this guy has quit forever and tried something else, but maybe he's just waiting for the right moment to move on.

But with that long, I'm sure that person had already seen the best strategy. And yes, I don't think also that this person stopped but a possible scenario is that he/she moves all the funds to another wallet for the safe keep. Because I believe that this person knows what his/her doing and probably saved it waiting for the perfect time to sell and who knows, he/she is also waiting for the next bull run and selling all of it.

Experienced investors don't easily lose, that's what my take. And they will find the best way to survive, not by quitting.

He might stopped but doesnt mean that he had quit up because we know that there's no such thing about unlimited funds and if ever he had make out some DCA on those peak prices then it should be fine because he had been able to do so with Bitcoin unless if he had dca on some shit coins then for sure this losses would really make that huge impact but since we are talking about Bitcoin then it should be fine.
This might be involving that long wait but doesnt mean that he would be needing to wait forever. For sure he would be able to earn profit even more on the time that the market would really be making some
u-turn.

I agree on what others been saying that as long he didnt close his position or havent sold out on loss then it would really be just still that fine. Holding isnt really that hard
but not totally specially you do know and see on having multi millions in negative. 

[Franctoshi]

DCA doesn’t always work. If you use dca to enter and exit trades then it won’t help you in the bottoms and tops. If you spend too much time buying at the top or selling at the bottom then you would be better off just buying everything at once.

It’s not a full proof strategy. When Bitcoin went below $20k, I bought a lot. I didn’t dca because I knew it wouldn’t stay below $20K for long and I would be buying it at a higher price which is what happened. Same when it was over $50K, just sold everything pretty much because I knew the top was near.

when it's certain that the market is ready to drop ,Another strategy which I have used in addition to DCA which has profited me in the past is starting to buy first with little amount of money and increasing it while the market dips down, for instance if BTC is expected to drop down from the price of $30k to $25k or lower to start your accumulation you can start by increasing your buy orders with a difference of $5, $10 or whatever price difference that suits you, let's say you buy $10 - $15 - $20 - $25 - $30 - $35 - $40 - $45 - $50.

[safar1980]

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

You're missing the main point here: Why do you think this person sold?

Just because they emptied his wallet, or because it appears they stopped DCA? Maybe they just started to do DCA with another account... who are we to know.

Also to note is a few of transactions leads to coins not ending up on exchanges, a few examples looked at the biggest transfers:

4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qeth6n6ryxexvkx34wnx3nuynun4474h3j0gkhw
4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1q2we5eqjj8je6lz9xwjattpc3pn4jejc5h0s70f
2,000 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qpp3v9k4g5hqjfztextp5nn9808lcru9j8m4n2p

This already accounts for 12K of 17K Bitcoin that wasn't sold. It looks like they just consolidated numerous inputs into a few different addresses for now.

If it was a sale of coins, then their owner probably did not sell bitcoins on the exchange. There are many other options outside of stock trading for large transactions. There were options about violating the security of the first wallet.
But if the owner was not afraid to keep all the coins in one wallet, then he was not afraid of spying on his coins.

[Bushdark]

If this guy went out and stopped trading and took that big loss, then maybe he really did let go of the loss. But I think he just needs to change and plan a better strategy especially the potential for better bitcoin after the halving can be expected. Of course I don't think this guy has quit forever and tried something else, but maybe he's just waiting for the right moment to move on.

But with that long, I'm sure that person had already seen the best strategy. And yes, I don't think also that this person stopped but a possible scenario is that he/she moves all the funds to another wallet for the safe keep. Because I believe that this person knows what his/her doing and probably saved it waiting for the perfect time to sell and who knows, he/she is also waiting for the next bull run and selling all of it.

Experienced investors don't easily lose, that's what my take. And they will find the best way to survive, not by quitting.

Since it is very clear that if he sell now, he's going to be on a bad lose and sending it to another wallet is the est idea looking like he might have sold it. Rich people don't buy to sell at lose unless the unbearable happens. It is only an average man that would buy Bitcoin to hold for long and sell it due to financial problems he might to facing having no alternative of getting funds to settle his bills than to sell his holdings and settle his problem.

 The rich would always want to hold for a long time so that that can have a taste of the benefs when the value of Bitcoin appreciate very well. We cam decide now when the value of the Bitcoin is being sold or is transfered to another similar wallet.

[carlfebz2]

If this guy went out and stopped trading and took that big loss, then maybe he really did let go of the loss. But I think he just needs to change and plan a better strategy especially the potential for better bitcoin after the halving can be expected. Of course I don't think this guy has quit forever and tried something else, but maybe he's just waiting for the right moment to move on.

But with that long, I'm sure that person had already seen the best strategy. And yes, I don't think also that this person stopped but a possible scenario is that he/she moves all the funds to another wallet for the safe keep. Because I believe that this person knows what his/her doing and probably saved it waiting for the perfect time to sell and who knows, he/she is also waiting for the next bull run and selling all of it.

Experienced investors don't easily lose, that's what my take. And they will find the best way to survive, not by quitting.

Since it is very clear that if he sell now, he's going to be on a bad lose and sending it to another wallet is the est idea looking like he might have sold it. Rich people don't buy to sell at lose unless the unbearable happens. It is only an average man that would buy Bitcoin to hold for long and sell it due to financial problems he might to facing having no alternative of getting funds to settle his bills than to sell his holdings and settle his problem.

 The rich would always want to hold for a long time so that that can have a taste of the benefs when the value of Bitcoin appreciate very well. We cam decide now when the value of the Bitcoin is being sold or is transfered to another similar wallet.

As a Whale, then you wont really be that so dumb for you to sell on lose specially that even on small percent movement you would neither be gaining or losing, but basing up on the price on which he do
able to get in then he's still definitely on negative as of this moment on which it would be understandable that he had stopped on DCA on the time that he do sees that the price goes down even more.
For now then for sure that he's still monitoring up on his holding but dont mind on touching it out.

There's no sense that you would be selling out in loss. The great missing opportunity on here is that on the time that Bitcoins price hits up $15k on which it is the sweetest spot for you to DCA
if you do have millions of dollars but since this market is unpredictable then you cant really tell on where it would be going and this is why these kind of mistakes and missed
opportunities is really that something very common but doesnt mean that it would be over. As long you arent selling it on loss then those arent considered to be a total loss.

[dragonvslinux]

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

You're missing the main point here: Why do you think this person sold?

Just because they emptied his wallet, or because it appears they stopped DCA? Maybe they just started to do DCA with another account... who are we to know.

Also to note is a few of transactions leads to coins not ending up on exchanges, a few examples looked at the biggest transfers:

4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qeth6n6ryxexvkx34wnx3nuynun4474h3j0gkhw
4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1q2we5eqjj8je6lz9xwjattpc3pn4jejc5h0s70f
2,000 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qpp3v9k4g5hqjfztextp5nn9808lcru9j8m4n2p

This already accounts for 12K of 17K Bitcoin that wasn't sold. It looks like they just consolidated numerous inputs into a few different addresses for now.

If it was a sale of coins, then their owner probably did not sell bitcoins on the exchange. There are many other options outside of stock trading for large transactions

While true, this is usually done OTC rather than independantly for such large amounts (unless someone has a very good reputation for do a high-risk trade). This is because it involves an escrow, or at a minimum a middle-man. So the fact the coins went directly from A to B without going from A to B to C suggests there were no OTC translations or middle-person facilitating such a trade. Also probably worth pointing out that the large institutions that facilitate OTC trades usually have their wallet addresses listed on the various different block explorers as belonging to X,Y,Z, so it's often quite transparent when these OTC trades occur.

As I said initially, if you look more in-depth at the individual transactions, there's no denying it's a consolidation of funds and nothing else. Whether or not they are sent on elsewhere would be a different story.

[safar1980]

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

You're missing the main point here: Why do you think this person sold?

Just because they emptied his wallet, or because it appears they stopped DCA? Maybe they just started to do DCA with another account... who are we to know.

Also to note is a few of transactions leads to coins not ending up on exchanges, a few examples looked at the biggest transfers:

4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qeth6n6ryxexvkx34wnx3nuynun4474h3j0gkhw
4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1q2we5eqjj8je6lz9xwjattpc3pn4jejc5h0s70f
2,000 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qpp3v9k4g5hqjfztextp5nn9808lcru9j8m4n2p

This already accounts for 12K of 17K Bitcoin that wasn't sold. It looks like they just consolidated numerous inputs into a few different addresses for now.

If it was a sale of coins, then their owner probably did not sell bitcoins on the exchange. There are many other options outside of stock trading for large transactions

While true, this is usually done OTC rather than independantly for such large amounts (unless someone has a very good reputation for do a high-risk trade). This is because it involves an escrow, or at a minimum a middle-man. So the fact the coins went directly from A to B without going from A to B to C suggests there were no OTC translations or middle-person facilitating such a trade. Also probably worth pointing out that the large institutions that facilitate OTC trades usually have their wallet addresses listed on the various different block explorers as belonging to X,Y,Z, so it's often quite transparent when these OTC trades occur.

As I said initially, if you look more in-depth at the individual transactions, there's no denying it's a consolidation of funds and nothing else. Whether or not they are sent on elsewhere would be a different story.

When exchanging through a bank transfer, the guarantor's wallet is probably used, but if it is an exchange for other cryptocurrencies, then a direct transfer of bitcoins is also possible.If this whale was engaged in consolidation, then why did he first store bitcoins in one address, and then decided to distribute them between different addresses?

[Jody.Drummer]

If this guy went out and stopped trading and took that big loss, then maybe he really did let go of the loss. But I think he just needs to change and plan a better strategy especially the potential for better bitcoin after the halving can be expected. Of course I don't think this guy has quit forever and tried something else, but maybe he's just waiting for the right moment to move on.

But with that long, I'm sure that person had already seen the best strategy. And yes, I don't think also that this person stopped but a possible scenario is that he/she moves all the funds to another wallet for the safe keep. Because I believe that this person knows what his/her doing and probably saved it waiting for the perfect time to sell and who knows, he/she is also waiting for the next bull run and selling all of it.

Experienced investors don't easily lose, that's what my take. And they will find the best way to survive, not by quitting.

Logically when that person has a lot of bitcoins it makes me think that the owner is a person with experience. So emptying his wallet doesn't mean he sold it, and I think more that he did move it to another wallet. I don't think anyone who is ignorant or new to this space would have that kind of money in their wallet.
I agree with you that experience investors will hold on no matter what, no matter how bad the amount in their portfolio is, they will not easily give up and take a loss.

[Hamza2424]

Blind movement?
Trying to understand why he followed to Buy BTC continuously while He knew the market is in Reverse mode and unfortunately, he sold on the wrong time His dedication in 2022 Buying BTC on every spot is really appreciatable.

All i can say is Holding can reward massive in coming time my view.

[teosanru]

The owner of this address bought a million dollars worth of Bitcoin every day from August 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023.

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qw0pswznckx7s6tjmd2f5hrx4q6kc5nyrdxku50
Received:   17,536.2628 BTC (517 ins)   first: 2021-07-25   last: 2022-12-28
Sent:   17,536.2628 BTC (517 outs)   first: 2023-01-01   last: 2023-03-05
Profit from price change:   -239,395,601.9 USD

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

Man that is so sad and so stupid at the same time. He did DCA right at the point where bull run peaked and kept doing it till we went rock bottom. Even though based on his average price he still might get profitable very soon, might be in just a few months, but this is a very bad way of investing to be honest, you should keep DCA on different levels of price and not only date based DCA so in case price goes up you don't need to do a DCA.

[Rengga Jati]

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

Exactly, this DCA is indeed very suitable for use in the long term, especially in preparation for the next bullish era or targeting a certain period. If the city does DCA and panics every time there are market drops or corrections, well, it's not going to end well.
but, if he decided to sell the BTC under the rate and was not patient,he will exaxtly make the mistakes. except, there is something bad happenned to him and he must sell his BTC for some very important reasons. Because actually we don't know what happen to someone out there.

[worle1bm]

There will always be a losing trade if you choose a very specific timespan — even with the most bullish asset in existence. But if this dude continues on the DC-averaging in, then chances are, he/she'll be in the positives some time in the future.

Yeah if he/she decided to do DCA then selling at these times is not worth it because when we talk about million dollars investment then you should be careful with it and have patience for actual profits to land in your bucket but you see it's our personal call and I would say 3 years time period is good when it will definitely will be more then ATH of $68k so hope for best.

[Mahanton]

There will always be a losing trade if you choose a very specific timespan — even with the most bullish asset in existence. But if this dude continues on the DC-averaging in, then chances are, he/she'll be in the positives some time in the future.

Yeah if he/she decided to do DCA then selling at these times is not worth it because when we talk about million dollars investment then you should be careful with it and have patience for actual profits to land in your bucket but you see it's our personal call and I would say 3 years time period is good when it will definitely will be more then ATH of $68k so hope for best.

Who would really be on their right mind will really be selling off on cheap or in negative? Remember that you are holding bitcoin and not some fly by night project or altcoins in the market which means that potential and chances about recovery is really indeed high considering its really that sitting on the top of the market rankings, which means that community support is immense.Although we do really just have that market
which is really that truly unpredictable and there's no way that we could be able to tell on what would gonna happen in the future. This is why we do really make out mistakes and bad decisions just because of totally random and unpredictability but just like the rest been saying that DCA on bitcoin is much more worth. You might be seeing negatives but on the time that the market would really make that recovery then
you would really be telling into yourself that you have done such good decision.

It is really just that there are people who are really that impulsive when it comes to price movement is on which on the time that they do see its dipping then they do really panic.Yes its normal since we are
just humans but with due experience and other knowledge that we do have able to get and gain along the way.Then we do really be able to make up that good decisions basing into that.

[dragonvslinux]

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

You're missing the main point here: Why do you think this person sold?

Just because they emptied his wallet, or because it appears they stopped DCA? Maybe they just started to do DCA with another account... who are we to know.

Also to note is a few of transactions leads to coins not ending up on exchanges, a few examples looked at the biggest transfers:

4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qeth6n6ryxexvkx34wnx3nuynun4474h3j0gkhw
4,999 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1q2we5eqjj8je6lz9xwjattpc3pn4jejc5h0s70f
2,000 BTC: https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qpp3v9k4g5hqjfztextp5nn9808lcru9j8m4n2p

This already accounts for 12K of 17K Bitcoin that wasn't sold. It looks like they just consolidated numerous inputs into a few different addresses for now.

If it was a sale of coins, then their owner probably did not sell bitcoins on the exchange. There are many other options outside of stock trading for large transactions

While true, this is usually done OTC rather than independantly for such large amounts (unless someone has a very good reputation for do a high-risk trade). This is because it involves an escrow, or at a minimum a middle-man. So the fact the coins went directly from A to B without going from A to B to C suggests there were no OTC translations or middle-person facilitating such a trade. Also probably worth pointing out that the large institutions that facilitate OTC trades usually have their wallet addresses listed on the various different block explorers as belonging to X,Y,Z, so it's often quite transparent when these OTC trades occur.

As I said initially, if you look more in-depth at the individual transactions, there's no denying it's a consolidation of funds and nothing else. Whether or not they are sent on elsewhere would be a different story.

When exchanging through a bank transfer, the guarantor's wallet is probably used, but if it is an exchange for other cryptocurrencies, then a direct transfer of bitcoins is also possible.If this whale was engaged in consolidation, then why did he first store bitcoins in one address, and then decided to distribute them between different addresses?

I think you're slightly missing the point here. Yes the whale held the Bitcoin in one address, but because of the DCA, it was several (dozens) of different inputs. Therefore the consolidation was of various inputs into singular inputs - as is always the case with consolidation of funds - that naturally per tx was a single address. Sure on the face of it it looks like the individual simply transferred Bitcoin from one address to others, because that's what happened, but we're talking about numerous inputs into one address being consolidated into a few others, that's the take away here. Hope that the explains what you were questioning.

[South Park]

The owner of this address bought a million dollars worth of Bitcoin every day from August 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023.

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qw0pswznckx7s6tjmd2f5hrx4q6kc5nyrdxku50
Received:   17,536.2628 BTC (517 ins)   first: 2021-07-25   last: 2022-12-28
Sent:   17,536.2628 BTC (517 outs)   first: 2023-01-01   last: 2023-03-05
Profit from price change:   -239,395,601.9 USD

Approximately $460 million was spent buying Bitcoin, resulting in a loss of over $239 million. Perhaps this investor did not know that the DCA strategy is better to use for a longer period, or perhaps he found a more profitable investment.

Man that is so sad and so stupid at the same time. He did DCA right at the point where bull run peaked and kept doing it till we went rock bottom. Even though based on his average price he still might get profitable very soon, might be in just a few months, but this is a very bad way of investing to be honest, you should keep DCA on different levels of price and not only date based DCA so in case price goes up you don't need to do a DCA.

This also proves how important it is to select the right entry point when we start to do DCA, the commitment that person showed at the beginning is exactly what you are looking for on someone that is willing to use this strategy, unfortunately for him it was difficult to select a worse moment to begin to do this, so it would not surprise me if he gave up and sold his coins for a loss, however if he had started to perform this strategy once the market had crashed already it is quite likely he will be experimenting some profits already.