Dedollarization is here, like it or not

[pooya87]

Dedollarization appears to be an unstoppable trend as countries around the world look to reduce their dependence on U.S. currency.
Countries, particularly those in the Global South, are reducing their U.S. dollar reserves, settling cross border transactions in non-dollar currencies, and exploring the formation of new multilateral settlement mechanisms.
A major driver of this trend is Washington’s weaponization of the dollar via expansive sanctions that currently cover 29 percent of the global economy and 40 percent of global oil reserves.

Of course one important fact that responsiblestatecraft got wrong is that dedollarisation didn't start after Russian NATO war, it has been going on for a long time. At least for the past decade countries have been negotiating alternatives and economic blocs and groups like BRICS have been working on building such systems. The main reason for its speed up in 2022 till today is also not sanctions on Russia but the fact that the old world order (the unipolar world) officially died. Consequently the world started dumping the fiat of the lone world hegemony that no longer has the same strength as before.

Some would even say that dedollarisation started after 2008 US economy collapse (which also led to creation of bitcoin).

What's interesting is that these days and possibly this decade looks a lot like the 70's. Similar dedollarisation was happening then too and Europe was also trying to dump the dollar to which US responded by Petrodollar and:

The minutes also clearly stated that such a move would be detrimental to America’s interests and that, if Europe tried it, America would “squash” them. Ultimately, for the plan to succeed Germany would have had to cooperate. But with the Soviet Union looming on its doorstep, it was in no position to cross the U.S.

Same thing US is doing to Europe today, "squashing them". On one hand US has created another "USSR" boogeyman to scare Europe and on the other hand has increased the reliance of Europe on US in energy, weapons, and a lot of other things.

Similar actions are also being taken in Europe

which led certain European countries, particularly France, to begin to exchange their dollars for gold.

France has been making some trades in Yuan, "ditching the dollar".

As such, in just over a 12-month period, countries around the world mustered the courage to begin openly discussing the creation of alternative methods to conduct trade and settlement, as well as reducing their dollar reserves. The trade and settlement role of the dollar is where most of exiting will occur and where the demand for the dollar will fall away more precipitously.

Furthermore, BRICS countries have attracted numerous new member applications over the past year, with Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, and most recently Saudi Arabia showing interest and making declarations about creating a BRICS currency to compete with the dollar.

Many of these countries have been aggressively adding to their gold reserves over the past 13 years, and the size of their purchases has been accelerating, suggesting that perhaps any new currency might be backed by gold. Brazil (which has become increasingly vocal about its displeasure with the U.S. dollar system) and Argentina have started promoting the idea of creating a South American trading block and currency, the sur, similar to the European Union and euro.

The laundry list of dollar alternatives is long and growing daily. Examples include China testing cross-border digital currency settlements with Thailand and the UAE, insisting that sanctioned countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela accept yuan as payment for oil. Saudi Arabia is considering doing the same (there are rumors that Saudi is already selling oil for yuan and converting those yuan for gold on the Shanghai exchange). India is also buying some of its Russian oil in UAE dirhams. The simplest method, which is becoming increasingly popular, is bi-lateral agreements using local currencies.

BTW another incentive to dump the dollar which is usually forgotten, is different countries debt which is priced in dollar that has been rising in exchange rate because US manipulates the market and keeps the exchange rate up. Dedollarization fixes that too, which is another incentive for all the countries to dump the dollar.

Much of the global community is cheering, however. A lot of sovereign debt held by the global south is denominated in greenbacks, and an overpriced dollar makes debt service nearly impossible today.

The critical unanswered question is how the U.S. will respond to moves to de-dollarize. Any sudden decrease in U.S. dollar demand could have disastrous consequences for Americans. It could potentially trigger a U.S. dollar crisis leading to very high inflation, or even hyperinflation, and initiate a debt and money printing cycle that could tear apart the social fabric of society.
In short, any U.S. administration would ultimately consider any such de-dollarization moves to be matters of national security.
History has demonstrated that it is exceptionally rare for a transfer of global economic power to take place without major warfare.

A much more important question is whether United States has the military capability to start a war to prevent dedollarization?
From what we've seen over the past 2 decades, and how US military policy has been proxy wars; I'd say NO.
But this doesn't mean we aren't going to see more conflicts like the ongoing Russian-NATO war, this means we will see more proxy wars where US stands back while others fight and destroy their own countries (eg. China-Taiwan).

[odolvlobo]

Dedollarization may be a fact but I think it will be a very slow process. The U.S. dollar is so pervasive as a reserve currency that it has become an integral part of the economic infrastructures of every country in the world.

I think we are looking at decades rather than years.

[khiholangkang]

De-dollarization is the output of anxiety towards the US which is always arbitrary towards other countries, let alone small countries, we have seen this fact for years.
All conspiracies must be related to the phenomena that are happening in the world today, and they will definitely emerge.

Indeed, the US military today is counted capable of stopping de-dollarization and invites its members in the NATO organization to assist in this matter. But if being aggressive is like saying war outright, that's not typical of the US that I know, they will always make propaganda at one key point of all this de-dollarization movement and slander and then finish them off.
I'm also quite curious, what will the US do to stop de-dollarization, while the US will face elections in 2024, which I think conditions like this will be vulnerable.

[Wend]

There will be many people who oppose your article who are American fanatics and always consider America more than their parents. But the reality is that de-dollarization is happening even though we don't know if it will succeed or fail. It's really happening, and it's scaring a lot of people. I don't care if the USD is dethroned or not, but I want a fair and balanced world rather than just depending on one great power, and they can do whatever they want. They are also just one country out of 200 other countries, they are not the creators of this world.

[Yamane_Keto]

How many countries are ready to go far in Dedollarization? 5, 10, 20, will not constitute a significant percentage of the public debt of the United States, and this process will stabilize for many years. During those years, many changes will occur, the most important of which is the globalization that has become threatened after mutual protectionist measures between many countries.

The thing is repeated every several years, which is that when economic conditions are bad, the United States always finds a way to pay off its debts, and this thing will make countries trust the dollar more than any other currency.

Starting with Executive Order No. 11615 on August 15, 1971, without taking any approval from the countries that hold the dollar, yet the countries continued to hold the dollar, the subsequent oil crises came, and the petrodollar became the new standard, and this will continue with every financial crisis.

Let's see what the new standard the US will use to restore confidence in its currency.

[davis196]

This is yet another forum thread about dedollarization(which doesn't add anything new to the discussion).
OK, dedollarization might happen. And so what? The world will be facing another recession or depression(which is part of the cyclic nature of capitalism). Putin's propaganda keeps repeating the same "dedollarization" theory over and over again. I don't mind. I don't give a shit about the US dollar. The global dominance of the USA is heading towards a decline and this is a normal process.
I think that it will be surprisingly easy for many countries around the world to dump the US dollar and the US dominated financial infrastructure.
Weaponizing the US dollar and the financial infrastructure was a big mistake by the Biden administration, but I couldn't care less about the "libtards" in the USA.

[pooya87]

Dedollarization may be a fact but I think it will be a very slow process. The U.S. dollar is so pervasive as a reserve currency that it has become an integral part of the economic infrastructures of every country in the world.

I think we are looking at decades rather than years.

That's correct. Dedollarization is a slow process considering we are talking about a significant change in monetary system that the world is addicted to already. But it definitely won't be "decades". Some US senators and many other politicians, economists, etc. have made statements that usually talk of about 5 years until US dollar completely loses its position in the world.

Let's see what the new standard the US will use to restore confidence in its currency.

I'm very curious to see what they are going to do this time too but there is nothing left for them to do. You see back in the 70's, US was still a superpower and no other country (except USSR) was even close to being half powerful. Today the world is very different, there are many emerging powers that are even stronger that United States in different fields, like China, India, Iran, Brazil, ...

Not to mention in the 70's because US used to be a super power they could force other countries to bend to their orders. Like ordering Saudi regime to adopt Petrodollar scam. Today when they order Saudis to increase oil production to reduce the global price and help decrease US inflation, the Saudi regime outright refuses and there is nothing US can do about that! And Saudi Arabia is basically a US colony!

OK, dedollarization might happen.

It is happening already!

Putin's propaganda keeps repeating the same "dedollarization" theory over and over again.

Why is it that people think everything that is negative about West must be Putin's propaganda?

I don't mind. I don't give a shit about the US dollar.

That means you don't understand the significance of it. Dollar is used by all countries for trading and reserve currency. Both US inflation and USD dump affects the global economy. In fact part of the inflation around the world is because of dollar.
Think of it as repetition of 2008 collapse that affected the whole world. The more you rely on USD the more affected your country is going to be. High inflation, unemployment, disruption in all markets,... are some of the effects.

Weaponizing the US dollar and the financial infrastructure was a big mistake by the Biden administration, but I couldn't care less about the "libtards" in the USA.

Biden didn't start the weaponisation and won't be the last POTUS to do it. They've been doing it ever since WWII.

[Shortmaster]

Dedollarization appears to be an unstoppable trend as countries around the world look to reduce their dependence on U.S. currency.
Countries, particularly those in the Global South, are reducing their U.S. dollar reserves, settling cross border transactions in non-dollar currencies, and exploring the formation of new multilateral settlement mechanisms.
A major driver of this trend is Washington’s weaponization of the dollar via expansive sanctions that currently cover 29 percent of the global economy and 40 percent of global oil reserves.

Of course one important fact that responsiblestatecraft got wrong is that dedollarisation didn't start after Russian NATO war, it has been going on for a long time. At least for the past decade countries have been negotiating alternatives and economic blocs and groups like BRICS have been working on building such systems. The main reason for its speed up in 2022 till today is also not sanctions on Russia but the fact that the old world order (the unipolar world) officially died. Consequently the world started dumping the fiat of the lone world hegemony that no longer has the same strength as before.

Some would even say that dedollarisation started after 2008 US economy collapse (which also led to creation of bitcoin).

What's interesting is that these days and possibly this decade looks a lot like the 70's. Similar dedollarisation was happening then too and Europe was also trying to dump the dollar to which US responded by Petrodollar and:

The minutes also clearly stated that such a move would be detrimental to America’s interests and that, if Europe tried it, America would “squash” them. Ultimately, for the plan to succeed Germany would have had to cooperate. But with the Soviet Union looming on its doorstep, it was in no position to cross the U.S.

Same thing US is doing to Europe today, "squashing them". On one hand US has created another "USSR" boogeyman to scare Europe and on the other hand has increased the reliance of Europe on US in energy, weapons, and a lot of other things.

Similar actions are also being taken in Europe

which led certain European countries, particularly France, to begin to exchange their dollars for gold.

France has been making some trades in Yuan, "ditching the dollar".

As such, in just over a 12-month period, countries around the world mustered the courage to begin openly discussing the creation of alternative methods to conduct trade and settlement, as well as reducing their dollar reserves. The trade and settlement role of the dollar is where most of exiting will occur and where the demand for the dollar will fall away more precipitously.

Furthermore, BRICS countries have attracted numerous new member applications over the past year, with Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, and most recently Saudi Arabia showing interest and making declarations about creating a BRICS currency to compete with the dollar.

Many of these countries have been aggressively adding to their gold reserves over the past 13 years, and the size of their purchases has been accelerating, suggesting that perhaps any new currency might be backed by gold. Brazil (which has become increasingly vocal about its displeasure with the U.S. dollar system) and Argentina have started promoting the idea of creating a South American trading block and currency, the sur, similar to the European Union and euro.

The laundry list of dollar alternatives is long and growing daily. Examples include China testing cross-border digital currency settlements with Thailand and the UAE, insisting that sanctioned countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela accept yuan as payment for oil. Saudi Arabia is considering doing the same (there are rumors that Saudi is already selling oil for yuan and converting those yuan for gold on the Shanghai exchange). India is also buying some of its Russian oil in UAE dirhams. The simplest method, which is becoming increasingly popular, is bi-lateral agreements using local currencies.

BTW another incentive to dump the dollar which is usually forgotten, is different countries debt which is priced in dollar that has been rising in exchange rate because US manipulates the market and keeps the exchange rate up. Dedollarization fixes that too, which is another incentive for all the countries to dump the dollar.

Much of the global community is cheering, however. A lot of sovereign debt held by the global south is denominated in greenbacks, and an overpriced dollar makes debt service nearly impossible today.

The critical unanswered question is how the U.S. will respond to moves to de-dollarize. Any sudden decrease in U.S. dollar demand could have disastrous consequences for Americans. It could potentially trigger a U.S. dollar crisis leading to very high inflation, or even hyperinflation, and initiate a debt and money printing cycle that could tear apart the social fabric of society.
In short, any U.S. administration would ultimately consider any such de-dollarization moves to be matters of national security.
History has demonstrated that it is exceptionally rare for a transfer of global economic power to take place without major warfare.

A much more important question is whether United States has the military capability to start a war to prevent dedollarization?
From what we've seen over the past 2 decades, and how US military policy has been proxy wars; I'd say NO.
But this doesn't mean we aren't going to see more conflicts like the ongoing Russian-NATO war, this means we will see more proxy wars where US stands back while others fight and destroy their own countries (eg. China-Taiwan).

The next 2 years Fed will cut rates it will bring inflation hyperinflation then deflation and the final plan is USA superior world dominance.
Bricks Nation Will shine until the gold shines bricks sounds like sales trick for gold.
I don't belive any bricks Nation success and until markets still dominated by USD then USA will be the power of the world for long time.
The new currency USDC Will just replace the old but it's still dollar.

[Bellarg]

It's only the beggining of long enough process. Will see if it go further or not

[stompix]

This is yet another forum thread about dedollarization(which doesn't add anything new to the discussion).

Yeah, because desperation is here!

In case somebody is still wondering why OP is so full of hate against the us dollar, let me show you two pics to clear the confusion:
This is how depolarization and the fall of the dollar looks from Iran, Op's country:



From 3700 rial for a dollar to 51000 in 6 years.

Gdp per capita in 6 years of sanctions:




120th in the world by GDP, basically the poorest of the poor, a country with more gas that the whole world but which must burn mazut to power up the electricity grid while shutting schools to not kill everyone from pollution, a country that can't even pay for basic food imports unless the seller takes payments in oil.

This is what dollarization and stupid basij propaganda look like in reality, poverty, poverty and poverty!

[NotATether]

BRICS countries did announce that they are going to create a new currency to usurp the dollar but it's a long way from happening. You can't just mint a token (pun intended) and expect everyone to use it.

The result won't be much different from the tokens on Ethereum, Tron, BSC.

So they announced that they are going to use a "basket" of their own currencies as a means of payment among themselves. It's going to be used mainly in (country) trading. But even this is a long way from happening currently. That's not to deny that these countries are pissed at the US economy - it's hard not to be, considering how the rising inflation and more recently the looming default are screwing over a lot of people at the moment - including US residents.

[o48o]

Why is it that people think everything that is negative about West must be Putin's propaganda?

Dude you just literally said this.

Same thing US is doing to Europe today, "squashing them". On one hand US has created another "USSR" boogeyman to scare Europe and on the other hand has increased the reliance of Europe on US in energy, weapons, and a lot of other things.

It's directly from Kremlin book of propaganda and you are not even trying to hide it. How was that fair and balanced view of anything?

That quoted part wasn't even critique against US, you made it up. US didn't create the Russian invasion. Russia attacked to Ukraine so get your facts straight. US just understands that if they would not help us now this humanitarian catastrophe might escalate to WW3. Because if Russia succesfully conquered Ukraine, they are not stopping there. We who live closer to this situation and have our own history with Russia, we know how they operate. So maybe we understand the bigger picture and stakes in this little better.

[darkangel11]

BRICS countries did announce that they are going to create a new currency to usurp the dollar but it's a long way from happening. You can't just mint a token (pun intended) and expect everyone to use it.

The result won't be much different from the tokens on Ethereum, Tron, BSC.

So they announced that they are going to use a "basket" of their own currencies as a means of payment among themselves. It's going to be used mainly in (country) trading. But even this is a long way from happening currently. That's not to deny that these countries are pissed at the US economy - it's hard not to be, considering how the rising inflation and more recently the looming default are screwing over a lot of people at the moment - including US residents.

OP's views may not be completely accurate but something is going on with the dollar, we can't deny it. Another fact is that 10 years ago, countries weren't looking for alternatives the way they're doing it now.
Let's drop poor Iran for now and Russia that is obviously (judging by its propaganda and issued threats) at war with half of the world right now. Brazil is no longer using the dollar, UAE and Saudi Arabia don't even want to talk with Biden and inflation in the US is definitely not transitory.
We may not see the dollar lose its position as a world reserve currency, but it can become much weaker in the coming years and weak dollar is good for bitcoin, so I'm planning to watch this with a supply of popcorn. Let's see how the first hawk of the FED handles this situation.

[Zaguru12]

We may not see the dollar lose its position as a world reserve currency, but it can become much weaker in the coming years and weak dollar is good for bitcoin, so I'm planning to watch this with a supply of popcorn. Let's see how the first hawk of the FED handles this situation.

I would say this is exactly what countries like China and Russia want. The more the dollar loses value as a central or international reserve currency the more the American government loses its political against other countries. Many countries have started to opt into assets that have store of value like gold and this where others could prioritize the bitcoin too.

But one thing i see in this dedollarization is that as countries are moving away from dollars they are not looking towards one country currency like the yen. Because of they do then this brings power to another country and this is just similar to what is happening now. So I am of the belief that this propaganda is just to weaken the dollar but to overthrown it as a central currency will take longer time to be achieved.

[someone703]

Dedollarization is indeed a real phenomenon that is being discussed and pursued by various countries. The desire to diversify reserve holdings and reduce dependence on a single currency is driven by the goal of reducing vulnerability to potential economic disruptions or geopolitical pressures. Many will think of promoting a multipolar world where power and influence are more evenly distributed among nations. It is also understandable why everyone is aiming for a fairer and more equal life, but this issue also needs to be considered more.

[coupable]

I agree with most of the opinions that there is a global trend (since the sixties of the last century after Nixon's admission that America does not have enough gold to cover all of its dollar mints) to reduce the power of the dollar and why not get rid of it (a utopian dream). However, I do not agree at all with the optimistic views that this may succeed despite the important steps taken by some countries and entities in order to achieve this ; it was not easy for U.S.A to establish the power of the dollar, which requires terrorizing the world with two nuclear bombs, it will never be easy to remove that power from the dollar unless we remove America's dominant power over the world.
In a statement to one of the economists, he stated that the United States does not pay attention to all attempts to get rid of the dollar because it knows that it is almost impossible (at least now) for them to do so, since international exchanges require both parties to be satisfied with the currency used, which cannot happen with Most countries in the world that do not want to replace the dollar.

[Poker Player]

In case somebody is still wondering why OP is so full of hate against the us dollar, let me show you two pics to clear the confusion:
This is how depolarization and the fall of the dollar looks from Iran, Op's country:

...

This is what dollarization and stupid basij propaganda look like in reality, poverty, poverty and poverty!

Lol. You guys used to get on well with each other, right? 

Regarding the subject in question, it is true that we hear a lot more nowadays of various countries proposing an alternative to the dollar and even starting to make some trades with alternative currencies. To what extent they may succeed remains to be seen. On the other hand we saw with the war in Ukraine and the high inflation how there was a high demand for dollars as a safe haven so the supposed de-dollarization, at least for the time being, seems to have little impact.

The pathetic thing is that the dollar is still the currency with the highest demand today, not because it is very good, but because it is less bad, and in some cases much less bad than the other currencies.

[DrBeer]

......

 

Reminds me of another topic - "199,000 companies in Germany went bankrupt due to the energy crisis." Where the author is very unobtrusive, as if hinting that this is all a consequence of the refusal of gas from the country of the terrorist.
As a result, everyone laughed, except for the author of the topic, and the author of this "masterpiece", after a couple of answers, decided to run away from the topic so as not to be completely ridiculed

I consider this topic a sequel to the above article.
To the author of the topic - many thanks for the laughter and cheerful mood

PS I consider the author of the topic to be the discoverer of a new type of stand-up - "Petrosyan's Political Humor"

[Alpha Marine]

De-dollarization is not something that is going to happen anytime soon. It might happen sometime in the future but not today. This is not something that can just happen in a couple of years.
The main reason I feel this is going to take decades is because there has to be a currency that people trust. a currency that is relatively stable like the dollar. Countries don't just wake up and start using a particular currency as their federal reserve currency.

I don't think there's going to be any war between countries about this. It's only going to be an economic battle. It's still going to be the same old international politics.

[Doan Ha]

Since March of this year, discussions on "de-dollarization" in the international community have heated up sharply. According to Google data, the global search index on "Dedollarization" (Dedollarization) reached a perfect score of "100" in April this year, and the relevant discussions have reached the highest level since the data was available in 2004.

The issue of "de-dollarization" has been hotly debated internationally. The bearish sentiment on the US dollar has heated up, and the prices of gold and cryptocurrencies have risen. We believe that the background of this round of "de-dollarization" craze is quite complicated. So my personal point of view is to take some precautions. Of course, seeing that many rich people buy gold in kilograms, I want to say that this is not a very wise choice. People don't put all their eggs in one basket, so Bitcoin is also one of my choices. After all, the original intention of Bitcoin is to fight against the US dollar's global harvesting of assets.