⚽ Football Friendly Match is Hard to Predict

[Bananington]

how about you?

You should say some friendly games are harder to predict, not all. In a friendly game between Brazil for example, where they use all their first team players, and they are playing against a country like Malta, there is a 99% chance of them winning, and this game, a friendly game will be easy to predict even though there is a 1% chance of a draw game which will be because of Brazil not playing well. The chances of a very weak team in soccer winning a stronger team will be only because the stronger team play a lesser standard of football than they play and not because the weaker teams will outplay the stronger team. If the Stronger team play with the standard that they are known for, there will no chance of the weaker team winning. In those kind of friendly games, after you have seen the team selection and formation, you will know if the stronger team is serious about winning or not.

[rahmad2nd]

~~

So if most Friendly Match results end with a draw, why we don't bet on a draw? isn't that a profit?.
As we can see until the end of June [1], there are dozens of friendly matches we can bet. But, like you said, hard to predict, German lost again in Poland (16/6), and last night, we get a draw again in Ecuador vs Bolivia.

So, there is euphoria in Indonesia when they have a special guest team (world cup champion), Argentine. I don't brave to bet on a draw, because most likely (where don't have a strong defender) Indonesia will get lots of goals from Argentine.

[1]. https://www.eurosport.com/football/international-friendlies/calendar-results.shtml

Wow, it seems I missed a lot of information related to friendly matches. So far, I've only focused on the league. but let's discuss it, in theory we have to see the two teams that will compete before we make a bet. I'm sure you also agree with what I'm saying. referring to what you said, the problem is not why we bet on a draw or as I said the Under/Over option and also not a question of profit, but rather whether it is interesting for me the friendly match. to be honest, not at all and therefore I didn't really pay much attention to observing. but, if these friendly matches are more interesting and profitable then you can have fun with them.

Well, this is interesting. indirectly, you led me to research the Poland vs Germany match. based on statistics, Germany mastered ball possession and tactics. but apparently, the Germans are more experimenting with their system. in fact, they tried to play long balls. I didn't watch the match, but it seems that there was an attempt by Germany to penetrate the Polish defense. and yes, as we agreed, friendlies tend to be less serious and there were a lot of substitutions early in the second half from both teams. Naturally, if Germany loses, they don't play their full squad.

Well this is the interesting part, Indonesia is my country. even rumors, Messi and Di Maria will not play. even so, it won't be a problem for Argentina because these two teams have a very significant gap. Unfortunately, I didn't get the predicted line-up for the two teams. but after all, as you said, it is highly likely that Argentina will score against Indonesia. if you predict there will be a lot of goals in this match, you can bet the under/over option of 4.25 with odds @1.90.
btw, this match is important for our national team. why, because they will face the squad that won the 2022 world cup. it doesn't matter how we lose, but the effect is huge for the mentality of the players going forward. and it is an honor for us, the world cup winning team, to be willing to visit Indonesia.

[Chikito]

how about you?

You should say some friendly games are harder to predict, not all. In a friendly game between Brazil for example, where they use all their first team players, and they are playing against a country like Malta, there is a 99% chance of them winning, and this game, a friendly game will be easy to predict even though there is a 1% chance of a draw

When we talk about Brazil or a strong team that has 90% winning, we have no doubt it, their second-tier players as well the same as 1st players. so there is no confusion to bet to Brazil, but again, when we read all posted above, betting on the friendly match is risky, even have 99% chance to win, because there isn't a tendency if they lose or win.

Well this is the interesting part, Indonesia is my country. even rumors, Messi and Di Maria will not play. even so, it won't be a problem for Argentina because these two teams have a very significant gap. Unfortunately, I didn't get the predicted line-up for the two teams. but after all, as you said, it is highly likely that Argentina will score against Indonesia. if you predict there will be a lot of goals in this match, you can bet the under/over option of 4.25 with odds @1.90.
btw, this match is important for our national team. why, because they will face the squad that won the 2022 world cup. it doesn't matter how we lose, but the effect is huge for the mentality of the players going forward. and it is an honor for us, the world cup winning team, to be willing to visit Indonesia.

I'm not sure it's a draw, even favorite and play at home, Indonesia doesn't have the capacity to face the 2nd tiers Argentine squad. but, anything can happen, I am even more interested if Indonesia plays the U-22 squad like they got Gold on sea games 2023. maybe that's more impressive and prestigious than Senior player.

[coin-investor]

Friendly matches are always difficult to predict. they sometimes don't play seriously, or some players are on vacation and aren't in the squad.
I usually don't bet on friendly matches, but yesterday when Indonesia faced Palestine, I bet on a draw. and I won the bet. because I know this is difficult so I bet with the smallest bet.

In another friendly match, Indonesia will face Argentina. would you bet on a draw? Argentina is a World Cup champion. I wouldn't think they would draw against Indonesia.

I never bet in friendly or exhibition matches because both teams and fighters are not showing their true strength, in fact, they are holding back, the team never put their strongest player for fear of injury and also for the other team not to see their real play when they are playing against them, same thing with individual games like exhibition boxing they do not throw their biggest punches because the pay is not huge compared when it's a real match.

[Oasisman]

how about you?

Nope, I don't remember betting on any friendly matches on any kind of sports. Friendly matches is basically an exhibition game and there several reasons why it's hard to predict and win against it.
1. It's because obviously is not a serious game.
2. Superstars may not play or perform with like only 10% of their ability.
3. They can control the outcome of the game instantly.

Some people even suspect that the officials of the game and even some of the players are betting on their own against the bettors who choose to place a bet on the favourites, so they can make a lot of money out of these exhibition games.

[tusandii]

I just lost 3 Friendly Match last week ago, and all match results draw ,

• Morocco - Cape Verde,
• Germany - Ukraine,
• and Indonesia vs Palestine

-snip-

Friendly matches are only like trial matches, so it makes it very difficult for us to predict who will win because all results can change and the pattern of play is also not very optimal.
I lost several bets in friendly matches so I decided to avoid betting on this match.
After all, the players only play as best they can and don't really optimize their playing performance.

The 3 matches that you are betting on actually I also see that there are quite high Odds but that is risky and don't take them.
This can be a lesson for you so that in the future you can be more careful in choosing matches to bet on.

[Strongkored]

After all, the players only play as best they can and don't really optimize their playing performance.

The 3 matches that you are betting on actually I also see that there are quite high Odds but that is risky and don't take them.
This can be a lesson for you so that in the future you can be more careful in choosing matches to bet on.

Even in a friendly match like that, the referee won't take the foul seriously, for example about a penalty award because I'm not interested in watching a friendly match, is it possible that if there is a foul that in a normal match would get a penalty then in a friendly match it also happens?
The friendly match is only a warm-up because the league competition is on holiday for the new season, so it's not important at all, so ignore it, save the funds for the new season, which will certainly be a lot of interesting matches with various bets that can provide profit opportunities.

[rendravolt]

We'll see ddds for Argentina, only @1.03, it's even very small and won't make a lot of money, on the other hand, the odds for Indonesia to get @25.00 and that's very big, there are so many draws with odds @15.00, but anyway, it's impossible Indonesia will win or draw. So I think for sure taking over 4 goals will make more decent money at odds @1.55 because either way both teams or even with the depth of the Argentinian squad themselves can do more than 4 goals.

And today the odds have changed a lot for Indonesia to @35.00 and @1.02 for Argentina, if you want to keep betting on this match that isn't serious maybe you can choose another market such as the number of goals over 4. But I don't think Argentina will try to be able to score a lot goals in this match and Indonesia also has the opportunity to score goals, so my prediction will only end 3-1 or 4-1 so over 4 with the actual odds is also not very attractive @ 1.5 is enough because it's impossible for the match to end in a draw and choose Argentina on the money line is more unpleasant.

It is certain that Argentina will not be too serious in a match like this but Indonesia will definitely be very serious to face Argentina. Maybe the problem is that Indonesia is able to score goals or not and if a goal is scored from the Argentinian side it is likely that my target of over 4 goals will not be achieved. But I found the latest news saying that the chairman of the Indonesian football association will give bonuses to his players if Indonesia can later draw against Argentina. I think these words will motivate Indonesian players to be able to score goals against Emi Martinez.

So I think the result of over 4 goals is not bad and for sure both countries will attack each other to score a lot of goals. But since this is a friendly match I don't want to take it too seriously to live up to my expectations and I consider this as an entertainment bet for small money.

[Doan9269]

Maybe the teams don't out in much effort since they know it just a friendly match and attract no much concentration unlike the leagues matches they often play, still yet that isn't enough reason which you be attributed to their low performance since all these are what were being calculated along with the major leagues play to sum up a team performance, this makes it more often that much of these friendly matches ended with draw, some gamblers already don't include such match in their games because of uncertainties from the two opponents which remains unpredictable.

[len01]

Maybe the teams don't out in much effort since they know it just a friendly match and attract no much concentration unlike the leagues matches they often play, still yet that isn't enough reason which you be attributed to their low performance since all these are what were being calculated along with the major leagues play to sum up a team performance, this makes it more often that much of these friendly matches ended with draw, some gamblers already don't include such match in their games because of uncertainties from the two opponents which remains unpredictable.

the first word you said I think I slightly disagree. because even though this is just a friendly match it doesn't mean they are just playing casually.
because for me this is one of the rare opportunities like Indonesia vs Argentina which is very rarely able to face head-to-head and these two teams will try to use the strength of their performance to beat one to prove that their performance and strength are enough to compete at the next level or at big league later.
today indonesia vs argentina will take place and i think i will try my luck betting on a draw. even though it's a bit impossible but I'm sure Indonesia can quite improve their defense line.

[Docnaster]

Friendly matches are always difficult to predict. they sometimes don't play seriously, or some players are on vacation and aren't in the squad.
I usually don't bet on friendly matches, but yesterday when Indonesia faced Palestine, I bet on a draw. and I won the bet. because I know this is difficult so I bet with the smallest bet.

In another friendly match, Indonesia will face Argentina. would you bet on a draw? Argentina is a World Cup champion. I wouldn't think they would draw against Indonesia.

I never bet in friendly or exhibition matches because both teams and fighters are not showing their true strength, in fact, they are holding back, the team never put their strongest player for fear of injury and also for the other team not to see their real play when they are playing against them, same thing with individual games like exhibition boxing they do not throw their biggest punches because the pay is not huge compared when it's a real match.

Apart from players being on vacation and some level of unseriousness another factor you have to consider is that some of the players are faced with fatigue. They have played very well in the leagues and as the season ended, they are supposed to rest, rather they continued playing. This is one of the things that reduces their performance and another thing to consider is that most countries do not take care of their players as much as their clubs do. So they tend to perform better for club than country.

[rahmad2nd]

~~

I'm not sure it's a draw, even favorite and play at home, Indonesia doesn't have the capacity to face the 2nd tiers Argentine squad. but, anything can happen, I am even more interested if Indonesia plays the U-22 squad like they got Gold on sea games 2023. maybe that's more impressive and prestigious than Senior player.

Obviously, because these two teams are different classes. Argentina is ranked 1st in FIFA, while Indonesia is ranked 149th. Imagine, there is a very significant gap. So, the question is whether this match has the potential to be a draw. terotically, no!. even though Argentina will not be playing its main squad, it's hard to imagine that this match will end in a draw. that's why the margin for a draw at odds @17.00, looks very tempting. but what's more tempting is the Indonesian odds with @41.00. these odds will still change, before the match is held. how are you interested in betting on a draw, maybe not at all. especially if you expect the home team to win the match, something that is almost impossible even though in football anything can happen. ideally, bet on the Under/Over.

I just want to see this match as entertainment, moreover we are well aware that Argentina will not play seriously. but I hope that Indonesia will play as well as possible and as much as they can. in particular, in preparation for the 2023 Asian Cup competition which will be held soon. btw, we have talented young players and currently the development of football has increased quite a bit, especially at the junior level. It's a shame, at the senior national team level, we don't have much to be proud of.

[temple]

how about you?

You should say some friendly games are harder to predict, not all. In a friendly game between Brazil for example, where they use all their first team players, and they are playing against a country like Malta, there is a 99% chance of them winning, and this game, a friendly game will be easy to predict even though there is a 1% chance of a draw game which will be because of Brazil not playing well. The chances of a very weak team in soccer winning a stronger team will be only because the stronger team play a lesser standard of football than they play and not because the weaker teams will outplay the stronger team. If the Stronger team play with the standard that they are known for, there will no chance of the weaker team winning. In those kind of friendly games, after you have seen the team selection and formation, you will know if the stronger team is serious about winning or not.

Yes but you won't get the odds that you are looking for when you actually want to make some winnings. In other words there is no point in betting on Brazil in that case. But I think what can be more interesting in those games are actually bets on the weaker teams. Unexpected results happen more often in those friendly games even when the best players play. The managers still try some new things out and the players aren't as eager to win the game as they would be in other matches. The Germany vs. Ukraine match as mentioned by OP is an example for that. It was even a lucky draw in the end.

But overall it is less predictable and that is also the same for club friendlies. the games can't be compared to serious competition games.

[masulum]

Indonesia vs Argentina match will start soon. Maybe, this is just a match that Argentina didn't really expect, but I'm sure the Indonesian National Team will show their skills and put up a strong fight against one of the world's football powers. The Indonesian team has been steadily improving over the years, and this match provided a golden opportunity for them to test their skills against a top class opponent. The odds for Indonesia are huge, you can't imagine if Indonesia wins. LOL
Well, anything can happen. right?

[TimeTeller]

Friendly matches are only like trial matches, so it makes it very difficult for us to predict who will win because all results can change and the pattern of play is also not very optimal.
I lost several bets in friendly matches so I decided to avoid betting on this match.
After all, the players only play as best they can and don't really optimize their playing performance.

The 3 matches that you are betting on actually I also see that there are quite high Odds but that is risky and don't take them.
This can be a lesson for you so that in the future you can be more careful in choosing matches to bet on.

That what I was thinking, as they were friendly matches, you can't expect all players to take their game on a very serious note.
Hence, if you feel that you can't see a very aggressive game, better sit back and relax, just enjoy the game, and don't bet for the moment.
But of course, it won't be the same on every friendly match. Some teams may want to take the game seriously.
What I can compare this kind of game is like exhibition matches in boxing, not very advisable to place a bet in those exhibition fights.
Or if you are rooting for a certain team, just bet a small amount so no hard feelings if the outcome is out of your expectations.

[bitzizzix]

Indonesia vs Argentina match will start soon. Maybe, this is just a match that Argentina didn't really expect, but I'm sure the Indonesian National Team will show their skills and put up a strong fight against one of the world's football powers. The Indonesian team has been steadily improving over the years, and this match provided a golden opportunity for them to test their skills against a top class opponent. The odds for Indonesia are huge, you can't imagine if Indonesia wins. LOL
Well, anything can happen. right?

Yes, I watched the match between Indonesia vs Argentina and so far Argentina dominated the game but I saw the Indonesian players were very excited in this match and kept trying to put pressure on the Argentinian players when they got the ball. And I see that Indonesia's defense is also good and makes it difficult for the Argentine players to score goals.
and the Indonesia vs Argentina match captured a lot of public attention, including the world community. And even though in the end this match did not feature Argentina captain Lionel Messi, and I heard that many Lionel Messi fans there were very disappointed because they couldn't come to Indonesia and he chose to take a vacation.

[aylabadia05]

Indonesia vs Argentina match will start soon. Maybe, this is just a match that Argentina didn't really expect, but I'm sure the Indonesian National Team will show their skills and put up a strong fight against one of the world's football powers. The Indonesian team has been steadily improving over the years, and this match provided a golden opportunity for them to test their skills against a top class opponent. The odds for Indonesia are huge, you can't imagine if Indonesia wins. LOL
Well, anything can happen. right?

A very entertaining friendly match for me as an Indonesian fan.
From the start of this match plan we felt that the strength would not be comparable, but the balls were round.
Positive things emerged from the Argentina coach's answers when answering questions from the media crew that Argentina was serious in the friendly match against Indonesia even though some of the main players like Messi did not join the group.

Indonesia's target is to hold it to a draw, but Indonesia's current position is losing 0-1 in the 38th minute through Paredes' goal.

[bitzizzix]

Indonesia vs Argentina match will start soon. Maybe, this is just a match that Argentina didn't really expect, but I'm sure the Indonesian National Team will show their skills and put up a strong fight against one of the world's football powers. The Indonesian team has been steadily improving over the years, and this match provided a golden opportunity for them to test their skills against a top class opponent. The odds for Indonesia are huge, you can't imagine if Indonesia wins. LOL
Well, anything can happen. right?

A very entertaining friendly match for me as an Indonesian fan.
From the start of this match plan we felt that the strength would not be comparable, but the balls were round.
Positive things emerged from the Argentina coach's answers when answering questions from the media crew that Argentina was serious in the friendly match against Indonesia even though some of the main players like Messi did not join the group.

Indonesia's target is to hold it to a draw, but Indonesia's current position is losing 0-1 in the 38th minute through Paredes' goal.

Argentina scored one more goal and it was 0-2 to Argentina and Cristian Romero's second goal in the 55th minute, it was a huge class difference game. Indonesia is ranked 149th in the world against Argentina which is ranked 1st in the world.

but at least Indonesia can face Argentina, the 2022 world cup champion and also ranked 1st in the world, and I was quite entertained watching this match and Indonesia's counterattack was also good but it's a shame the ball was so easily snatched by the Argentine players.
the match was at the end of time, and it was impossible for Indonesia to equalize the score.

[masulum]

but at least Indonesia can face Argentina, the 2022 world cup champion and also ranked 1st in the world, and I was quite entertained watching this match and Indonesia's counterattack was also good but it's a shame the ball was so easily snatched by the Argentine players.
the match was at the end of time, and it was impossible for Indonesia to equalize the score.

Yup, the result may not have favored Indonesia, the match served as a valuable learning experience for the team. Going up against such strong opposition provides an opportunity for growth and improvement. The Indonesian players can take this experience and use it as motivation to further develop their skills and strategies for future encounters. I really appreciate Indonesian team today, even they are face the no.1 in the world, they are able to keep 2 - 0 till ends. This is an expensive experience for Indonesia, because so far Indonesia has had difficulty bringing in a strong national team in friendly matches. The change of PSSI leadership to former Inter Milan owner Erick Tohir seems to give hope to Indonesia.

[Casdinyard]

I just lost 3 Friendly Match last week ago, and all match results draw ,

• Morocco - Cape Verde,
• Germany - Ukraine,
• and Indonesia vs Palestine

I don't know why a strong team like German and Morocco didn't play seriously when meet in a friendly match. this will be noted and experienced in the future, So if you are bet in a friendly match, be careful to bet, don't look at how strong that team and squad, just look and be brave to bet in a draw. This is just my opinion, not always all friendly matches result for draw, but with my 3 last bets, I have a thing to bet 70% in the draw  ,

how about you?

That's the thing about friendly matches, people will goof off and will not be at their competitive level since there's no need to anyway. I think that's pretty much established right from the get-go already so I don't see the reason why you'd play on friendly matches in the first place lmao, but let's just suppose this is your first time and you're not aware how things go in these types of games. Moving on, I'd rather bet on games that I know are played competitively and are made with the intention of actually winning it, not to practice/waste people's time watching how the goof off on the field. It's funny watching them without betting though as it removes the tension we've been so accustomed with football matches, but that's the end of it mostly.