⚽ Football Friendly Match is Hard to Predict

[Raflesia]

Because from the name alone this is a friendly match so there is no target they are looking for to win and seem to want other results such as how to see the schemes that are carried out or the players that are played and of course see whether the formation is suitable or not because in short this is just trying to make national team to be better and ready when there is competition.
To be honest, in this case, I have never done this for a gamble because indeed this is also an experiment for several big clubs so it is definitely difficult to predict how victory can be obtained because the focus of several clubs in this case is actually not on winning.

I would say it depends on which players get a chance during friendly games. If there are a lot of routined players then it usually doesn't have the pace as the real games have when something is at stake. But there might be some action when younger players get one of their first or few chances to show what they are able to do, but that can also lead to less predictability as they are emotionally kind of overwhelmed and don't play as well as they would usually do. I would rather go with teams who usually don't have a chance but can win a friendly game because anything else is often not worth the risk that a team out of a sudden literally forgot how to play the game.

The problem in this case comes back to the friendlies again I think. Conditionally maybe what you say could be true but that's only a fraction of the many chances one has in a friendly match.
Players also know that this is friendship so sometimes they don't really do it in the sense that they sometimes don't touch too hard in body fights or when trying to make attacks sometimes they also prefer which one is best and don't push too hard like a match for competition.
Just looking at the OP's case when we examine it, of course we know Morocco in the world cup and what it's like on the other hand Germany is also having problems but they are a big club and compared to their opponents they are much better but of course this also cannot be used as a benchmark for friendly matches because indeed the results sometimes it's not the win they are looking for but something else like i said before.

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[dunfida]

Because from the name alone this is a friendly match so there is no target they are looking for to win and seem to want other results such as how to see the schemes that are carried out or the players that are played and of course see whether the formation is suitable or not because in short this is just trying to make national team to be better and ready when there is competition.
To be honest, in this case, I have never done this for a gamble because indeed this is also an experiment for several big clubs so it is definitely difficult to predict how victory can be obtained because the focus of several clubs in this case is actually not on winning.

I would say it depends on which players get a chance during friendly games. If there are a lot of routined players then it usually doesn't have the pace as the real games have when something is at stake. But there might be some action when younger players get one of their first or few chances to show what they are able to do, but that can also lead to less predictability as they are emotionally kind of overwhelmed and don't play as well as they would usually do. I would rather go with teams who usually don't have a chance but can win a friendly game because anything else is often not worth the risk that a team out of a sudden literally forgot how to play the game.

The problem in this case comes back to the friendlies again I think. Conditionally maybe what you say could be true but that's only a fraction of the many chances one has in a friendly match.
Players also know that this is friendship so sometimes they don't really do it in the sense that they sometimes don't touch too hard in body fights or when trying to make attacks sometimes they also prefer which one is best and don't push too hard like a match for competition.
Just looking at the OP's case when we examine it, of course we know Morocco in the world cup and what it's like on the other hand Germany is also having problems but they are a big club and compared to their opponents they are much better but of course this also cannot be used as a benchmark for friendly matches because indeed the results sometimes it's not the win they are looking for but something else like i said before.

Personal matters or not then its not really that something that recommendable on making up some bets with the friendly match. Most likely you would really be able to see some draw or even underdog teams would be beating up those high tiered or good ones on which you would really be having that lost bet because you would of course be betting on stronger one but since this isnt an official match then you would expect that
performance or gameplays wouldnt really be the same unlike on a real match which it is really that understandable.This is why i do skip on betting with these matches because results are really that something
you could predict because every team or member would really be just simply playing without having that competitive kind of approach which it would be affecting out their overall performance
and this is something that a very common approach.

[kawetsriyanto]

Since friendly games are not important in FIFA ranking the players must play the game with caution. It will be needless for players to pick injuries because of an unimportant game. But some players take this game seriously because it contributes to players’ goals and caps. So a player that wants to break a record or wants more caps will play his best in the game just to achieve his aim.

Every player must avoid injury in a friendly match because it is not a very serious match. The main purpose of a friendly match is for fun, not for winning a prestigious title. Players show up their abilities/skills in a friendly match, but they will play not seriously. So, we rarely saw top players play full-time in a friendly match, most players should be the substitutions. It is only important for substituted players, it is the time to show that they deserve to be selected as main players. In this matter, top players won't target for goal or caps achievement in a friendly match.

Some teams are natural rivals which makes them take friendly games between them seriously. There has been an old rivalry between Brazil and Argentina, Nigeria and Cameroon, and some other examples. In such friendly games, national interest is of great importance. So the player will give thier best because of pride and records.,

Sure. When it is about rivalry, the match should be more serious. Players will try to win the match because it is for their pride or self-esteem. But since it is a friendly match, it shouldn't be as serious as in the real match.

[Weawant]

Every player must avoid injury in a friendly match because it is not a very serious match. The main purpose of a friendly match is for fun, not for winning a prestigious title. Players show up their abilities/skills in a friendly match, but they will play not seriously. So, we rarely saw top players play full-time in a friendly match, most players should be the substitutions. It is only important for substituted players, it is the time to show that they deserve to be selected as main players. In this matter, top players won't target for goal or caps achievement in a friendly match.

This makes the whole point of betting on friendly game very risky and unpredictable. Nobody is playing professionally and they are just playing or training to use a more appropriate word. I understand why coaches don't allows their star players to play all 90minutes of the game.

Star players are already certain of starting in the game, the second choices are those who'll need to impress the coach in this friendly games so they can be substituted on during the serious games. It's the second choice players that play with all their mind during this friendly games.

The B team isn't the strongest side of a team and they can't be bet on to win the game which usually lead to both sides settling for a draw. Friendly games can end in two ways, ether there's no goal in the match or there's are lots of  goals due to the absence of chemistry between players.

[rendravolt]

Every player must avoid injury in a friendly match because it is not a very serious match. The main purpose of a friendly match is for fun, not for winning a prestigious title. Players show up their abilities/skills in a friendly match, but they will play not seriously. So, we rarely saw top players play full-time in a friendly match, most players should be the substitutions. It is only important for substituted players, it is the time to show that they deserve to be selected as main players. In this matter, top players won't target for goal or caps achievement in a friendly match.

Injuries are a major concern in friendly matches and both players and coaches will try to avoid these incidents as much as possible. Of course, players who have had good careers and become key players at their clubs will rarely meet in the starting line-up and even if they do enter the field they don't fully play at full capacity in normal times.

Friendly matches are also very good for young players who have just joined the national team and can see their quality through these matches. So the most important thing is the rotation of players in friendly matches and of course the opposing team also wants to be able to face star players so they can get more experience.

[tusandii]

-snip-

As per the title of the thread, this is what happens in a friendly match which is very difficult to predict.

Like the results of the friendly matches between Brazil vs Senegal and Germany vs Colombia which were unexpected, the hosts lost in this match. It should be obvious Brazil and Germany will win this friendly and there will likely be so many bettors who lose money betting on the team that is the favorite to win. It's no wonder why this could happen to Germany because out of 15 official/non-official matches Germany only won 3 times. Meanwhile, Brazil did not make sense this time and even though Brazil has the best goalkeeper in the Champions League this season, namely Ederson, they conceded 4 goals instead.

Did you know that friendly matches are only for testing purposes?
That every team that is strong enough does not play optimally apart from avoiding unethical talk as well as to maintain the stamina and condition of each player so they don't get injured.
It looks like not only the Brazil vs Senegal and Germany vs Colombia matches but also several other friendlies will be the same and this is a very good opportunity for the house edge as they can take a lot from matches like this.

I myself have never been interested in betting on friendly matches because it only makes me panic and lose some money.

I understand your perspective. These games are a tactical testing ground for coaches and a platform to assess players' fitness, often sidelining the pursuit of victory to ready the team for pivotal contests. Look at the Brazil vs Senegal and Germany vs Colombia friendlies - perfect illustrations. The teams never unleash their full potential, prioritizing player health over competition. Indeed, why risk a key player's injury in a non-consequential match?

Indeed, betting agencies capitalize immensely on these erratic games – their sustenance depends on it. Choosing not to bet on friendly matches is a wise course. At least, it spares you the anxiety of potential losses.

That's why if you prioritize friendly matches too much it will only hurt the team and we can also see that many friendly matches are not very exciting to watch because the team that is actually very strong actually plays mediocre and even they only lose to the other team.
For example, in the match between Argentina and Indonesia, there was one incident that was quite astonishing between Garnacho and Asnawi.

Well, this match is only used by bookies to be able to reap huge profits.
In fact, not a few gamblers have suffered big losses when betting on friendly matches.

[Doan9269]

Friendly match is a little more less being competitive and this makes to come in ease for us to adjust to the dictate of the mandate as a team that we have to play them at ease and at every comfort because no much attention is needed but it's played to know how week and strong a team can appear to be against eac other and also helps to know the measure to the level of their performances each when playing.

[Chikito]

Betting on friendly matches  based on the most popular team is the best way to lose. However if it is a game Messi would play, my money is definitely goin to be on Argentina. That country never fails to deliver. For the others, I do not trust them. Another red flag is that in some of the friendly matches the team is mixed up between professional players and those who play in the local league. Prior to that time they would not have spent time playing together to understand themselves, so we see a lot of silly mistakes in the field of play that leads to them losing. These are the best explanations that I can come up with. 

Argentina is ranked no.1 in FIFA, without Messi, Argentina can handle the win in every match because they are risking their reputation. Argentina must show as the no.1 team in the world, and they mustn't lose even a friendly match. Because of that, I bet Argentine when meeting my National Team, Indonesia, beside argentine has the best player on each line, The Match statistic is shown us they are have strong team where never lost in the last 10 matches, they just draw when meet Netherland and France, 8 of rest is won.

[len01]

-snip

I saw a part of the game and seriously how did you think that both teams were a bit playing to tie the game? Argentina was massively superior and there was one shot and one corner after another. It was nonstop pressure and ball possession by Argentina and Indonesia got lucky half a dozen times in the first half alone. If you thought that Argentina will be without luck until the end of the game and therefore bet on a draw, ok that is understandable, but they didn't both play to tie the game.

as I said before, I made a decision too quickly to place a bet without looking at the details of the match because I watched the broadcast of the match outside the house, so I couldn't focus on my predictions, so I was too careless myself, I placed the wrong bet.
but that's okay, this will be my additional experience for not being too careless when placing bets. 

Sure it can happen and often it helps to really watch the game for a while to see how it is going.

I had a look at the friendly games in the last couple of days and Brazil lost their game against Senegal, but I can't remember what the odds were. But that was probably one of those games where a bet on Senegal would have paid off quite well.

Do you remember the odds?

The odds in the match between Brazil v Senegal yesterday were Brazil @ 1.44 and Senegaal @ 7.50, clearly in the odds Brazil is the favorite but because this is a friendly match, of course the results will not always be as expected. I'm sure, if this was an official match then of course Brazil would maximize the quality of the players it has, because of course it has a different tension. Therefore, friendly matches cannot be used as a benchmark for mediocre teams, because when it comes to official matches, of course, the top teams will have very different playing styles.

I expected that there would be a surprise in this friendly match when Brazil who should have won but Senegel got lucky in the second half and last minute with a penalty. In yesterday's match I deliberately didn't try to bet because I was very hesitant to bet again because I think this friendly match really depends on luck because there are always unexpected surprises.
so it doesn't hurt that last time Indonesia vs Argentina I bet on a draw because I thought there was another surprise.

[shogun47]

Sure it can happen and often it helps to really watch the game for a while to see how it is going.

I had a look at the friendly games in the last couple of days and Brazil lost their game against Senegal, but I can't remember what the odds were. But that was probably one of those games where a bet on Senegal would have paid off quite well.

Do you remember the odds?

The odds in the match between Brazil v Senegal yesterday were Brazil @ 1.44 and Senegaal @ 7.50, clearly in the odds Brazil is the favorite but because this is a friendly match, of course the results will not always be as expected. I'm sure, if this was an official match then of course Brazil would maximize the quality of the players it has, because of course it has a different tension. Therefore, friendly matches cannot be used as a benchmark for mediocre teams, because when it comes to official matches, of course, the top teams will have very different playing styles.

Thank you for sharing the odds and yes that is what I wanted to say here. It can be worth the risk in these friendly matches to go with the weaker team and this is a great example. Senegal is not a very weak team and yet the odds @ 7.50 could be worth the risk in a friendly game. They often put the odds as if this was a serious game situation, but it isn't and even if Brazil plays with most of their best eleven, those best eleven don't play their best. While other nations are often still motivated when they get the chance to play against the world's best teams.

[Strongkored]

Friendly match is a little more less being competitive and this makes to come in ease for us to adjust to the dictate of the mandate as a team that we have to play them at ease and at every comfort because no much attention is needed but it's played to know how week and strong a team can appear to be against eac other and also helps to know the measure to the level of their performances each when playing.

Less competitive but it doesn't discourage people from coming to the stadium and watching the game, and it doesn't seem to reduce the habit of bettors to bet on matches like this which is why we see bookmakers providing markets for friendly matches.
If you want to bet, we can take more risks by choosing a weak team but of course the difference shouldn't be too far away, if a team that is considered weak gets odds of up to @20.00 or even more then you can be sure it's only a one-sided match, but if the team is weak get odds under @10.00 there is a chance to win or at least end in a draw, the odds of the bookmakers can't always be right and also wrong.

[Chikito]

Less competitive but it doesn't discourage people from coming to the stadium and watching the game, and it doesn't seem to reduce the habit of bettors to bet on matches like this which is why we see bookmakers providing markets for friendly matches.

Almost friendly matches are played when the local league breaks or end of the session, so in that situation only friendly match the bettor can bet in that spare time. Therefore, If they like sports, better to do not to focus and hobby only on 1 sport, they must have a hobby in another sport like Moto, F!, fighting, basket and etc. So when football language breaks, the bettor can bet on any sport which is still running on the session to avoid losing from the friendly match.

[Silberman]

Less competitive but it doesn't discourage people from coming to the stadium and watching the game, and it doesn't seem to reduce the habit of bettors to bet on matches like this which is why we see bookmakers providing markets for friendly matches.

Almost friendly matches are played when the local league breaks or end of the session, so in that situation only friendly match the bettor can bet in that spare time. Therefore, If they like sports, better to do not to focus and hobby only on 1 sport, they must have a hobby in another sport like Moto, F!, fighting, basket and etc. So when football language breaks, the bettor can bet on any sport which is still running on the session to avoid losing from the friendly match.

It is rare for a fan to only care about a single sport, most of the time they will have several sports that are dear to them, so even if one of those sports is going through a period in which most leagues are over and there is nothing decent to watch, there are other sports which could be on TV which could offer way better entertainment than just an exhibition match and which could help you to make more meaningful sport bets than what any exhibition match could offer.

[rendravolt]

Less competitive but it doesn't discourage people from coming to the stadium and watching the game, and it doesn't seem to reduce the habit of bettors to bet on matches like this which is why we see bookmakers providing markets for friendly matches.

Almost friendly matches are played when the local league breaks or end of the session, so in that situation only friendly match the bettor can bet in that spare time. Therefore, If they like sports, better to do not to focus and hobby only on 1 sport, they must have a hobby in another sport like Moto, F!, fighting, basket and etc. So when football language breaks, the bettor can bet on any sport which is still running on the session to avoid losing from the friendly match.

There is some truth in your opinion and I totally agree with what you said that there are so many kinds of sports and we shouldn't just stick to one sport if we want to make money from gambling. Now the domestic league in football has ended, so friendly matches will be medicine for tiredness waiting for the competition to start again in August. Maybe I still need to learn more about other sports besides football but I think it's not too late to start now. I am quite interested in moto gp and basketball because when I was a teenager I often watched them on television.

[Juggy777]

Friendly match is a little more less being competitive and this makes to come in ease for us to adjust to the dictate of the mandate as a team that we have to play them at ease and at every comfort because no much attention is needed but it's played to know how week and strong a team can appear to be against eac other and also helps to know the measure to the level of their performances each when playing.

Less competitive but it doesn't discourage people from coming to the stadium and watching the game, and it doesn't seem to reduce the habit of bettors to bet on matches like this which is why we see bookmakers providing markets for friendly matches.
If you want to bet, we can take more risks by choosing a weak team but of course the difference shouldn't be too far away, if a team that is considered weak gets odds of up to @20.00 or even more then you can be sure it's only a one-sided match, but if the team is weak get odds under @10.00 there is a chance to win or at least end in a draw, the odds of the bookmakers can't always be right and also wrong.

@Strongkored not sure if I’m just unlucky but whenever I’m wagering in a friendly match I feel that both sides look disinterested to win and it ruins the mood for me as a gambler. Furthermore from my experience the key for friendly matches is to see which reserve player’s are included because these player’s usually will go out of their way to impress the coach and can guarantee goals which can lead to the country winning at least that’s what I personally believe.

[len01]

Less competitive but it doesn't discourage people from coming to the stadium and watching the game, and it doesn't seem to reduce the habit of bettors to bet on matches like this which is why we see bookmakers providing markets for friendly matches.

Almost friendly matches are played when the local league breaks or end of the session, so in that situation only friendly match the bettor can bet in that spare time. Therefore, If they like sports, better to do not to focus and hobby only on 1 sport, they must have a hobby in another sport like Moto, F!, fighting, basket and etc. So when football language breaks, the bettor can bet on any sport which is still running on the session to avoid losing from the friendly match.

There is some truth in your opinion and I totally agree with what you said that there are so many kinds of sports and we shouldn't just stick to one sport if we want to make money from gambling. Now the domestic league in football has ended, so friendly matches will be medicine for tiredness waiting for the competition to start again in August. Maybe I still need to learn more about other sports besides football but I think it's not too late to start now. I am quite interested in moto gp and basketball because when I was a teenager I often watched them on television.

of course it's pretty well done but i think it takes a little longer to get to grips with other sports like the NBA. but if it's a better way to make money at sports betting it never hurts to try and I think it's better to bet on other sports than in friendly football matches which are full of surprises.

[Oneandpure]

Argentina is ranked no.1 in FIFA, without Messi, Argentina can handle the win in every match because they are risking their reputation. Argentina must show as the no.1 team in the world, and they mustn't lose even a friendly match. Because of that, I bet Argentine when meeting my National Team, Indonesia, beside argentine has the best player on each line, The Match statistic is shown us they are have strong team where never lost in the last 10 matches, they just draw when meet Netherland and France, 8 of rest is won.

Not difficult for Argentina winning in their friendly match this time against Asian national teams, Argentina won against Australia on their first friendly match with Asian national team and Messi played full until 90 minutes. For second match against Indonesian teams, Argentina easily winning 2-0 although not has Messi in starting eleven, not only Messi but also Lionel Scaloni not including Angel Di Maria in player list against Indonesia teams. Argentina still on the positive trend without loss until 10 matches and next FIFA Friendly Match on September and waiting with national teams opponent for Argentina and until how many games success unbeaten.

[kawetsriyanto]

This makes the whole point of betting on friendly game very risky and unpredictable. Nobody is playing professionally and they are just playing or training to use a more appropriate word. I understand why coaches don't allows their star players to play all 90minutes of the game.

I think only the main players who don't play seriously. For substituted players, they may play seriously because it is the time to show up. They mostly sit on the bench, they may have a chance to be main players if they can play well in some friendly matches. Or it may attract some football clubs to consider signing them if they perform well.

As far as I know, coach only limit the time to play for superstars or main players.

Friendly games can end in two ways, ether there's no goal in the match or there's are lots of  goals due to the absence of chemistry between players.

In most friendly matches, the result of the matches are draw.
That's because not all players have the motivation to play with their best. Most players just play for entertain, they show their skills without thinking much on how to score goals effectively.

[Ryu_Ar1]

Since friendly games are not important in FIFA ranking the players must play the game with caution. It will be needless for players to pick injuries because of an unimportant game. But some players take this game seriously because it contributes to players’ goals and caps. So a player that wants to break a record or wants more caps will play his best in the game just to achieve his aim.

Every player must avoid injury in a friendly match because it is not a very serious match. The main purpose of a friendly match is for fun, not for winning a prestigious title. Players show up their abilities/skills in a friendly match, but they will play not seriously. So, we rarely saw top players play full-time in a friendly match, most players should be the substitutions. It is only important for substituted players, it is the time to show that they deserve to be selected as main players. In this matter, top players won't target for goal or caps achievement in a friendly match.

Injury is actually one of the risks that must be passed when someone becomes an athlete. Even if what you say is true but I see something else for friendly matches because the purpose of friendly matches sometimes makes this a trial in several factors such as giving opportunities to some players especially those who are always reserves of the national team, besides trying to do some variations of attacks and schemes so that they also know what is lacking and of course with things like this looking for victory in some friendly matches is clearly a little difficult especially if it is only aca to a large national team because if you look at this condition, the bigger the team, the more they will try in friendly matches.
The matches will still be serious but the results and wins are not the main points sought in this case so it will definitely be very difficult to predict or bet on some friendly matches.

Even if there are some who are targeting victory but of course that is only a small part of the majority of the time they will try something new in friendly matches.

[Chikito]

There is some truth in your opinion and I totally agree with what you said that there are so many kinds of sports and we shouldn't just stick to one sport if we want to make money from gambling. Now the domestic league in football has ended, so friendly matches will be medicine for tiredness waiting for the competition to start again in August. Maybe I still need to learn more about other sports besides football but I think it's not too late to start now. I am quite interested in moto gp and basketball because when I was a teenager I often watched them on television.

of course it's pretty well done but i think it takes a little longer to get to grips with other sports like the NBA. but if it's a better way to make money at sports betting it never hurts to try and I think it's better to bet on other sports than in friendly football matches which are full of surprises.

There are many ways to understand and learn other sports if there is a wish like reading the news or watching on youtube. Or if you are lazy to read and research, just follow the odds, I used to play bets where I don't understand it like hockey, I just follow the best odds and bet it. sometimes wins, but because of enough risk where I don't understand that sport, I just bet a little money. the important thing is that you have fun.