⚽ Football Friendly Match is Hard to Predict

[Juggy777]

We must also not forget that the chances for friendly matches to be fixed go up exponentially compared to official games, during an exhibition match no one is really expecting top performance from the players and they know that weird things could happen, so the people behind fixing games can more easily convince some of those players to throw the game away as it is almost impossible there could be negative repercussions for doing so, and while this is unlikely to happen with the top clubs, it would not surprise me if it happened with lesser known leagues and teams.

Players who consider gambling as a way to make money on gambling will never bet on friendly matches, the exception may be the presence of some insider information about this match. And so there are quite a lot of official matches, and they are almost all year round, with the exception of small periods of the off-season. Friendly matches are a good way for a coach to assess the current condition of the players, which is why in such matches the coach often makes a lot of substitutions per game.

@Cryptmuster I agree with you because player’s will not risk their career by underperforming in these matches especially when the fringe player’s know that the coach will select them if they perform well. @Silberman if any big amount is made during friendlies then the authorities are bound to investigate hence I don’t feel that all friendly matches could be easily be fixed.

[Chikito]

I also have some friends that are into football gambling specifically, They always complain about friendly matches and none of them have ever bet their money on any friendly matches because they believe that it is less fun and more harder to predict.

It may have an art of its own if he tries it. And, the meaning of gambling is guess and play luck. I already got the answer after reading all 9 pages, so if we can calculate who can win by looking at the squad statistic, I think it's not called gambling but math. because we already know who can win. However, especially for a friendly match, I think it's real of gambling because we don't really know who can win, and lose, its the same as playing dice or slot. imo.

[bayu7adi]

So if we are betting on it, I think we should go to the weaker teams the most as they are the ones who will likely win the game. Maybe sometimes the game can also end up with a draw so we can also choose it when we are betting. In gambling, disappointments are expected. Most especially if you take it seriously.

Friendly football matches are not about competition, so strong teams tend to make the game more exciting by balancing the situation. It would be devastating for one team and its supporters if there is a significant defeat. A match that was originally intended for friendship would turn into a platform for ridiculing one team, which is something none of us want to happen.

Big teams also understand the hearts of supporters of weaker teams. Therefore, sometimes matches are arranged in such a way to make them more thrilling and evenly matched. It's no wonder there are so many unexpected outcomes in these games.

The big teams don't feel like they're losing out because it doesn't affect the competition. The weaker team, on the other hand, becomes even more motivated to sharpen their skills.

[len01]

I understand the way you say but placing bets follow the odds and betting on low odds or underdog is sometimes a big risk because I sometimes try to bet several times on underdog but the result is losing😬
but if you just want to try your luck it's actually okay to follow the odds like you said and there are other ways like following other people's high roller bets sometimes they bet a large amount and share their analysis.
but all that is also no guarantee.

The main problem with betting on the underdog is the low winning rate, after all if the odds given by a casino are low for a team or an athlete then most likely they are right about them and the chances to get the win are not very high, however a person which knows what they are doing could make money by betting on the underdogs, but psychologically this is a very difficult strategy to follow, as after you lose several times in a row you will have the desire to change gears and use another strategy.

as I said before all that will not guarantee anything. about betting wherever we will choose it everything is fine depending on what you want.
I mean if you choose to bet on the favored team with very low odds it doesn't matter even with a small win but the problem is sometimes low odds don't always give a bigger chance of winning. let's remember again in the case of sports that it often happens that the opposing team makes a comeback then the favored team loses, for example, it's all our own decision to bet anywhere.
regarding betting on underdog teams on several sheets previously discussed by OP that if you want to bet on underdog teams it's okay as long as the odds are not too far away from the underdog team. so that there is still a chance to win for the underdog team.

but nevertheless everything still depends on luck even though it has made analysis and predictions, especially this friendly match, a little complicated.

[LUCKMCFLY]

You have to understand that the dynamics of a friendly game will never be the same as a championship game. I don't like to bet on friendlies, but for those who want to risk it, I advise you to follow this important tip:

The result is the least important thing to bet on friendlies.

Obviously everyone wants to win, but the final score is what matters least to coaches in this type of game. Generally, a friendly is for players to assimilate the tactical concepts that must be developed in the season or championship to come, it serves to test new signings, test younger players and risk new game arrangements against a completely different team, something that goes beyond training between the teams.
So, in friendlies you should wait for the game to start and place more immediate bets.

Also consider that an inferior team may be more motivated to face a top team, for them a draw against a great team ends up becoming a great victory. We can't say the opposite, an "elite" team that is used to playing against others at a higher level will not have the same motivation.

I don't think it can be said better, in your post you covered many things, and everything is very complete, in fact I am one of the people who no longer likes to watch friendly soccer matches in my country, because they win them and then Qualifying matches for the World Cup do absolutely nothing and come last, what they do is excite an entire country and then leave with nothing, and that is something that I come back and say, it disappoints, maybe some countries do give it importance Everything, the preparation, but I don't trust these matches, one day they beat Brazil, and they were very excited, when they played in the South American qualifiers, Brazil practically swept the team.

I understand the way you say but placing bets follow the odds and betting on low odds or underdog is sometimes a big risk because I sometimes try to bet several times on underdog but the result is losing😬
but if you just want to try your luck it's actually okay to follow the odds like you said and there are other ways like following other people's high roller bets sometimes they bet a large amount and share their analysis.
but all that is also no guarantee.

The main problem with betting on the underdog is the low winning rate, after all if the odds given by a casino are low for a team or an athlete then most likely they are right about them and the chances to get the win are not very high, however a person which knows what they are doing could make money by betting on the underdogs, but psychologically this is a very difficult strategy to follow, as after you lose several times in a row you will have the desire to change gears and use another strategy.

as I said before all that will not guarantee anything. about betting wherever we will choose it everything is fine depending on what you want.
I mean if you choose to bet on the favored team with very low odds it doesn't matter even with a small win but the problem is sometimes low odds don't always give a bigger chance of winning. let's remember again in the case of sports that it often happens that the opposing team makes a comeback then the favored team loses, for example, it's all our own decision to bet anywhere.
regarding betting on underdog teams on several sheets previously discussed by OP that if you want to bet on underdog teams it's okay as long as the odds are not too far away from the underdog team. so that there is still a chance to win for the underdog team.

but nevertheless everything still depends on luck even though it has made analysis and predictions, especially this friendly match, a little complicated.

Like you, I think that it is very complicated to do it, bet and see that it is a friendly match, nothing is certain, I see it as entering a game of craps in the casino and saying that I will always bet on Low, but yes They come out 50Low often I lose everything, what I want to say is that there is nothing certain when it comes to mysterious football matches, some good and famous teams or take their entire squad from the bench to test them in real play, others take advantage of their players and put them out to play to see how they do it and if their strategies work well in official matches, there are many criteria that coaches use to determine what they should do and what they should not do.

I never bet on friendly matches, there are even friendly matches that I have seen Brazil and Argentina lose, with teams that one considers are not so good, and they end up winning, so nothing is certain, but of course they lose because they don't take out the Better, for a matter of time, who do not let them leave their club to take risks, there are many things that influence them.

It is from this type of Speculation that we must make much stronger analyzes because we do not know who the Players are going to go out with , and that can be Surprising , just imagine that a whole Bench goes to the field of play, I think that this is Equivalent to any thing can happen

[Josefjix]

I also have some friends that are into football gambling specifically, They always complain about friendly matches and none of them have ever bet their money on any friendly matches because they believe that it is less fun and more harder to predict.

Friendly football game is tough to predict for gamblers? That is completely correct; it is happening to me on a regular basis. One might be absolutely certain about a game, and then significant odds would vanish as if there was a glitch in the system that circulates the odds. In fact, I despise gambling on friendly games because the participants tend to show their lack of seriousness on the field. Gambling is never a clear path from the start; we simply have to give up our positions when it comes to gambling, I can bet on any other games but anyone concerning friendly games, there outcomes are always shocking.

[CLS63]

Rather than their being fixed or not the reason is that friendlies aren't technically official matches. They are just matches to help players improve their match fitness to get ready for next season. This is also important of course but the matches just don't look as important as a league match for example.

Players also don't show their best performance mostly in these matches. We don't even see teams having their usual starting eleven in many friendlies due to some players' still being on holiday or maybe even playing for their national teams meanwhile.

As a result it is harder to predict the result of the friendlies due to the higher possibility of seeing surprising scores.

[aylabadia05]

Rather than their being fixed or not the reason is that friendlies aren't technically official matches. They are just matches to help players improve their match fitness to get ready for next season. This is also important of course but the matches just don't look as important as a league match for example.

Players also don't show their best performance mostly in these matches. We don't even see teams having their usual starting eleven in many friendlies due to some players' still being on holiday or maybe even playing for their national teams meanwhile.

I would like to add that apart from improving the fitness of the players, friendly matches are also an opportunity for selected players to be able to integrate with the team because those who are called up to strengthen the national team do not play in one team when they play in the league.

Friendly matches are not that important, but I think friendly matches can turn out to be important for H2H in the number of matches played and can also affect the value obtained in the FIFA rankings.
Like the friendly match Indonesia vs Argentina. If Indonesia is able to hold the world cup champions to a draw, then there will be an added value that will have a positive effect on their ranking.

[rendravolt]

I also have some friends that are into football gambling specifically, They always complain about friendly matches and none of them have ever bet their money on any friendly matches because they believe that it is less fun and more harder to predict.

Friendly football game is tough to predict for gamblers? That is completely correct; it is happening to me on a regular basis. One might be absolutely certain about a game, and then significant odds would vanish as if there was a glitch in the system that circulates the odds. In fact, I despise gambling on friendly games because the participants tend to show their lack of seriousness on the field. Gambling is never a clear path from the start; we simply have to give up our positions when it comes to gambling, I can bet on any other games but anyone concerning friendly games, there outcomes are always shocking.

The main point of the friendly match is the participants are not too serious to do the match on the field and I totally agree with what you said. Therefore it's better to just watch the match if you are interested and don't need to place bets on such a match.

But sometimes we still expect more results for friendly matches and that's one of our mistakes if we get hooked. I think betting on other sports where the competition is still officially active is much safer than throwing money away in a friendly match where it is not clear who will win.

[len01]

-snip

It is from this type of Speculation that we must make much stronger analyzes because we do not know who the Players are going to go out with , and that can be Surprising , just imagine that a whole Bench goes to the field of play, I think that this is Equivalent to any thing can happen

to be more precise, in terms of speculating on friendly football betting, this is a little difficult or if you don't bet, it's just to try your luck. because I myself saw from previous matches that several times the favored team actually lost but the underdog team won and this will be very profitable if we dare to speculate on the underdog team.
so it's better to always analyze carefully and speculate a little to place bets on friendly football.

[Blitzboy]

You have to understand that the dynamics of a friendly game will never be the same as a championship game. I don't like to bet on friendlies, but for those who want to risk it, I advise you to follow this important tip:

The result is the least important thing to bet on friendlies.

Obviously everyone wants to win, but the final score is what matters least to coaches in this type of game. Generally, a friendly is for players to assimilate the tactical concepts that must be developed in the season or championship to come, it serves to test new signings, test younger players and risk new game arrangements against a completely different team, something that goes beyond training between the teams.
So, in friendlies you should wait for the game to start and place more immediate bets.

Also consider that an inferior team may be more motivated to face a top team, for them a draw against a great team ends up becoming a great victory. We can't say the opposite, an "elite" team that is used to playing against others at a higher level will not have the same motivation.

I don't think it can be said better, in your post you covered many things, and everything is very complete, in fact I am one of the people who no longer likes to watch friendly soccer matches in my country, because they win them and then Qualifying matches for the World Cup do absolutely nothing and come last, what they do is excite an entire country and then leave with nothing, and that is something that I come back and say, it disappoints, maybe some countries do give it importance Everything, the preparation, but I don't trust these matches, one day they beat Brazil, and they were very excited, when they played in the South American qualifiers, Brazil practically swept the team.

I understand the way you say but placing bets follow the odds and betting on low odds or underdog is sometimes a big risk because I sometimes try to bet several times on underdog but the result is losing😬
but if you just want to try your luck it's actually okay to follow the odds like you said and there are other ways like following other people's high roller bets sometimes they bet a large amount and share their analysis.
but all that is also no guarantee.

The main problem with betting on the underdog is the low winning rate, after all if the odds given by a casino are low for a team or an athlete then most likely they are right about them and the chances to get the win are not very high, however a person which knows what they are doing could make money by betting on the underdogs, but psychologically this is a very difficult strategy to follow, as after you lose several times in a row you will have the desire to change gears and use another strategy.

as I said before all that will not guarantee anything. about betting wherever we will choose it everything is fine depending on what you want.
I mean if you choose to bet on the favored team with very low odds it doesn't matter even with a small win but the problem is sometimes low odds don't always give a bigger chance of winning. let's remember again in the case of sports that it often happens that the opposing team makes a comeback then the favored team loses, for example, it's all our own decision to bet anywhere.
regarding betting on underdog teams on several sheets previously discussed by OP that if you want to bet on underdog teams it's okay as long as the odds are not too far away from the underdog team. so that there is still a chance to win for the underdog team.

but nevertheless everything still depends on luck even though it has made analysis and predictions, especially this friendly match, a little complicated.

Like you, I think that it is very complicated to do it, bet and see that it is a friendly match, nothing is certain, I see it as entering a game of craps in the casino and saying that I will always bet on Low, but yes They come out 50Low often I lose everything, what I want to say is that there is nothing certain when it comes to mysterious football matches, some good and famous teams or take their entire squad from the bench to test them in real play, others take advantage of their players and put them out to play to see how they do it and if their strategies work well in official matches, there are many criteria that coaches use to determine what they should do and what they should not do.

I never bet on friendly matches, there are even friendly matches that I have seen Brazil and Argentina lose, with teams that one considers are not so good, and they end up winning, so nothing is certain, but of course they lose because they don't take out the Better, for a matter of time, who do not let them leave their club to take risks, there are many things that influence them.

It is from this type of Speculation that we must make much stronger analyzes because we do not know who the Players are going to go out with , and that can be Surprising , just imagine that a whole Bench goes to the field of play, I think that this is Equivalent to any thing can happen

Due to the presence of unknown factors, extreme vigilance is required. There is an unmanageable and harmful amount of randomness introduced by the uncertainty, the unanticipated strategies, and the unplanned player rotations.

Like the gambler's conundrum, the outcome of a friendly match depends on more than just the quality of play from both teams. Teams with a superb lineup, like Brazil or Argentina, can nonetheless lose to unknown opponents. Attempting to construct a betting strategy on these factors is like attempting to catch smoke in a jar; there are simply too many unknowns.

The problem is made even worse by the lack of certainty in the player selecting process. Thats why, even when wagering on friendly matches, I urge caution and careful consideration.

[LUCKMCFLY]

We must also not forget that the chances for friendly matches to be fixed go up exponentially compared to official games, during an exhibition match no one is really expecting top performance from the players and they know that weird things could happen, so the people behind fixing games can more easily convince some of those players to throw the game away as it is almost impossible there could be negative repercussions for doing so, and while this is unlikely to happen with the top clubs, it would not surprise me if it happened with lesser known leagues and teams.

Players who consider gambling as a way to make money on gambling will never bet on friendly matches, the exception may be the presence of some insider information about this match. And so there are quite a lot of official matches, and they are almost all year round, with the exception of small periods of the off-season. Friendly matches are a good way for a coach to assess the current condition of the players, which is why in such matches the coach often makes a lot of substitutions per game.

@Cryptmuster I agree with you because player’s will not risk their career by underperforming in these matches especially when the fringe player’s know that the coach will select them if they perform well. @Silberman if any big amount is made during friendlies then the authorities are bound to investigate hence I don’t feel that all friendly matches could be easily be fixed.

These things about currently fixed matches can be seen as something common, especially in matches where there are new players, the results can be fixed so that none of them look bad, it is very rare that those teams that are Brazil or Argentina style reach a I agree, because they are countries that have always had a rivalry for many years, so this is something that is seen, in fact these countries always go very far in world competitions, in fact Argentina is champion, and that is something that we all know.

When there are preparation matches, for example for the World Cup qualifiers, it is very good to watch the games and not get emotional, because a country can show a lot and then when they really have to win, which are the qualifiers, it will be disappointing.

As far as I'm concerned, the qualifiers are the Main source of fútbol matches to prepare for the World Cup, some coaches from the most prominent countries put their youngest players to the test, I've seen that there are even up to 15s in the professional , because There is so much talent that is so good that they can already participate in the team.

[alegotardo]

To be more precise, in terms of speculating on friendly football betting, this is a little difficult or if you don't bet, it's just to try your luck. because I myself saw from previous matches that several times the favored team actually lost but the underdog team won and this will be very profitable if we dare to speculate on the underdog team.
so it's better to always analyze carefully and speculate a little to place bets on friendly football.

It must be remembered that friendly games also count points for Fifa (if I'm not mistaken), so... as much as coaches use this to make several substitutions and tests, there is still the will and need for the team to win the match, because it's not just a joke and "it's okay if we lose".

However, as I said before... friendlies are the type of game in which you should bet much more on the number of goals, as it tends to be greater, and not on the victory of team A or B.

Anyway, friendlies is a good game to enjoy and have fun, discover new talents hitherto unknown and drink a cold beer at the bar... it's not the kind of game that we really should bet money on.

[Strongkored]

The main point of the friendly match is the participants are not too serious to do the match on the field and I totally agree with what you said. Therefore it's better to just watch the match if you are interested and don't need to place bets on such a match.

But sometimes we still expect more results for friendly matches and that's one of our mistakes if we get hooked. I think betting on other sports where the competition is still officially active is much safer than throwing money away in a friendly match where it is not clear who will win.

Yes, because usually friendly matches are only used as warm-up matches, and also to form cohesiveness between players, so a strong team also really expects their opponent to also play relaxed to prevent player injuries, so there is nothing to worry about during the match.
And now, before the leagues return to play, many clubs are doing pre-season matches, the matches are running normally and there are indeed some that are quite surprising, like Arsenal who only drew with Nurnberg or such as when Liverpool fell behind 1-2 from their opponent Karlsruher SC, although in the end they managed to score 3 more goals to win the game and from the pre-season matches it can be seen that the coach is trying to formulate his squad later so that he can perform well in the main competition.
What might be interesting enough to look forward to is when Arsenal will face Manchester United tomorrow.

[Mups099]

So if we are betting on it, I think we should go to the weaker teams the most as they are the ones who will likely win the game. Maybe sometimes the game can also end up with a draw so we can also choose it when we are betting. In gambling, disappointments are expected. Most especially if you take it seriously.

Friendly football matches are not about competition, so strong teams tend to make the game more exciting by balancing the situation. It would be devastating for one team and its supporters if there is a significant defeat. A match that was originally intended for friendship would turn into a platform for ridiculing one team, which is something none of us want to happen.

Big teams also understand the hearts of supporters of weaker teams. Therefore, sometimes matches are arranged in such a way to make them more thrilling and evenly matched. It's no wonder there are so many unexpected outcomes in these games.

The big teams don't feel like they're losing out because it doesn't affect the competition. The weaker team, on the other hand, becomes even more motivated to sharpen their skills.

The big teams think we can easily beat them. So they don't play very seriously. Weaker teams sometimes do very well in exploiting that time.  which is not expected from them.  Such a game is rarely seen.

[Chilwell]

FRIENDLIES

Russia vs Serbia

Russia StartXI: 4-3-3
Matvey Safonov; Sergey Volkov; Aleksandr Silyanov; Maksim Osipenko; Daniil Khlusevich; Dmitriy Barinov; Daniil Glebov; Anton Miranchuk; Ivan Oblyakov; Konstantin Tyukavin; Aleksandr Golovin

Serbia StartXI: 4-3-3
Đorđe Petrović; Milan Gajić; Strahinja Eraković; Strahinja Pavlović; Filip Mladenović; Dušan Tadić; Saša Zdjelar; Saša Lukić; Andrija Živković; Luka Jović; Mijat Gaćinović

Cyprus vs Latvia

Cyprus StartXI: 3-5-2
Joel Mall; Andreas Karo; Alexander Gogić; Konstantinos Laifis; Chambos Kyriakou; Danilo Špoljarić; Ioannis Kousoulos; Charalampos Charalampous; Anderson Correia; Loizos Loizou; Ioannis Pittas

Latvia StartXI: 3-4-3
Rihards Matrevics; Daniels Balodis; Kaspars Dubra; Raivis Jurkovskis; Alvis Jaunzems; Eduards Emsis; Aleksejs Saveljevs; Andrejs Cigaņiks; Jānis Ikaunieks; Roberts Uldriķis; Vladislavs Gutkovskis

Belarus vs Montenegro

Belarus StartXI: 4-4-2
Pavel Pavlyuchenko; Sergei Karpovich; Sergei Politevich; Egor Parkhomenko; Denis Polyakov; Max Ebong; Kirill Kaplenko; Evgeni Yablonski; Kirill Pechenin; Egor Karpitsky; Denis Laptev

Montenegro StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Milan Mijatović; Marko Vešović; Meldin Drešković; Marko Tuci; Andrija Vukčević; Marko Janković; Edvin Kuč; Adam Marušić; Stevan Jovetić; Viktor Đukanović; Nikola Krstović

Malta vs Slovenia

Malta StartXI: 3-5-2
Henry Bonello; Steve Borg; Zach Muscat; Jean Borg; Joseph Mbong; Stephen Pisani; Matthew Guillaumier; Yannick Yankam; Juan Corbalan; Paul Mbong; Luke Montebello

Slovenia StartXI: 4-4-2
Jan Oblak; Petar Stojanović; Vanja Drkušić; Jaka Bijol; Jure Balkovec; Tomi Horvat; Adam Gnezda Čerin; Jasmin Kurtić; Jan Mlakar; Andraž Šporar; Benjamin Šeško

WHAT IS YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS GAME

[rdluffy]

Let's see if I have some luck in this "round" of friendlies



I think it's easy win to South Africa, Italy and Portugal, not bad odds of 2.65 and a little boost hehe
But just 5 usd to watch and have some fun, because some friendly matches, like OP said, are hard to predict

[rdluffy]

I think it's easy win to South Africa, Italy and Portugal, not bad odds of 2.65 and a little boost hehe
But just 5 usd to watch and have some fun, because some friendly matches, like OP said, are hard to predict

Unfortunately, South Africa drew with Andorra. I was a bit surprised by the result, which made me lose the bet. Thankfully it was only 5 dollars hehehe

But I managed to get the other two results right: Italy beat Venezuela and Portugal beat Sweden.

About the Venezuela game, it's quite interesting how the team has improved this season 23/24
A few years ago, Italy would surely have scored 4 or 5 goals in Venezuela, and that's not what happened in the game. It was a great opportunity for the team to play against a European team and gain experience for a probable World Cup in 2026.
Remember that in the South American qualifiers, Venezuela is in a very good 4th place 

[Volgastallion]

GUYS! DONT bet on friendlies is gonna make you sweat and shout like no tomorrow, is pure sorrow, the teams doesnt play in the normal way they do, and also they change formations or play at 50% of their total strenght.

Look what happen yesterday, South Africa CANT win against a shit national team like Andorra.

[Chilwell]

Romania vs Northern Ireland

Romania StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Florin Niță; Vasile Mogoș; Radu Drăguşin; Andrei Burcă; Cristian Manea; Alexandru Cicâldău; Răzvan Marin; Dennis Man; Nicolae Stanciu; Florinel Coman; George Pușcaș

Northern Ireland StartXI: 3-5-2
Conor Hazard; Trai Hume; Eoin Toal; Paddy McNair; Conor Bradley; Shea Charles; Jordan Thompson; Paddy Lane; Brodie Spencer; Jamie Reid; Isaac Price


Albania vs Chile

Albania StartXI: 4-3-3
Thomas Strakosha; Elseid Hysaj; Berat Djimsiti; Enea Mihaj; Mario Mitaj; Kristjan Asllani; Ylber Ramadani; Nedim Bajrami; Jasir Asani; Rey Manaj; Taulant Seferi

Chile StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Claudio Bravo; Mauricio Isla; Paulo Díaz; Igor Lichnovsky; Gabriel Suazo; Rodrigo Echeverría; Marcelino Núñez; Darío Osorio; Alexis Sánchez; Victor Dávila; Eduardo Vargas