We All Know, The halving time will be full of drama

[Sarah Azhari]

Yes, like the title above, we all know the halving time is will always full of drama, this always happens at that time, but I don't know why many people forget and still spread FUD everywhere. If they understand that and know it always happens on every 4 years, they shall be calm and relaxed to face SEC, Binance, or anything drama.

I hope this lesson gives you an important point. They create this to dump Bitcoin, they do this to scare you, they do this to buy Bitcoin at a cheap price, and After buying with a lot of money, you already know that today Bitcoin price is pumped like crazy, right?

So, I just want to say; Don't forget, The drama could happen again and repeat until the halving time. you must be strong and patient. you will definitely win if you face it with a quiet and strong hand if happen again in the near future.

Cheers

[1714564363]

1714564363

[1714564363]

1714564363

[1714564363]

1714564363

[Nwada001]

So far we have had three halvings, and the fourth is fast approaching, and funny enough, we always do have some sort of crisis, or will I say some price dump, on or before the Bitcoin halving, which usually drops the price of Bitcoin drastically to its lowest level compared to its ATH.
 
1. As we know, the first halving happened in 2012, and during this time, the price dump happened just a year before the halving, which was In 2011, when the price fell from $30 to $2. And this was as a result of the Mt. Gox exchange hack incident, in which a total of about 850,000 Bitcoins were stolen.
 
2. The second one was 2016, and the price dump was in 2014. After the price pumped in December 2013 and reached a new all-time high of $1200, the next month, January 2014, the price fell below $550, and this was as a result of the Announcement made by China, who have always been against crypto, which states "Bitcoin was not a currency and could not be used as a form of payment."
 
3. The most recent halving occurred in 2020, which was the one I experienced, but before the halving, the price had already reduced from its all-time high, which it achieved in December 2017, which was about $20k+, but within a period of a year, there was a global regulatory attack on ICOs (Initial coin offerings), just as the SEC is attacking Security tokens. Back then, the regulators requested exchanges comply with what they called "Anti-money laundering (AML). This, I believe, was when AML and KYC became mandatory for most of the centralized exchanges out there. The pressure that came with this resulted in the price crash from $20k+ to its lowest of $3,500 in December 2018.

[Hyphen(-)]

So, I just want to say; Don't forget, The drama could happen again and repeat until the halving time. you must be strong and patient. you will definitely win if you face it with a quiet and strong hand if happen again in the near future.

The best course of action at the moment is to exercise patience because, as a result of recent news reports about hacks at other exchanges and the SEC, many newcomers to the market are terrified and are selling off their Bitcoin out of panic and FUD. I don't blame them for doing this because they are aware of how long this bear market has lasted.

As a Bitcoiner, I have never personally experienced Bitcoin halving; instead, I only hear that the Bitcoin price do go above its all-time high. Since I've learned a lot from this forum and am actively looking for ways to acquire more Bitcoin before the price starts to rise, nothing can make me consider selling my current Bitcoin holdings.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

3 halvings, so N=2 (number of pattern repetitions). It is far from enough to proceed with such certainty and ignorance of all other factors. In a cointoss game the probability of calling 3x heads in a row (or tails three times) is 1:4 and yet to the inattentive observer the conclusions may be: 'so far it has always come up heads, so I assume that tails can never occur and I'll bet on that all my money ignoring the fact that another side of a coin exist".
it should also be noted that correlation does not imply causality and it is impossible to judge causality on such a young and volatile financial instrument with such a small sample.

Returning to the halvings, each subsequent halving is different and from a fundamental point of view it is advisable to expect an increasingly weaker impact on the valuation because:

1st halving was important. It reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Thats a big deal. Second halving decreased monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from like 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. So my bet is that halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions etc. Bitcoin will be more like an asset that act sometimes like gold on steroids sometimes like sp500 on steroids rather than it will fallow "bubble x days before each halving scheme"

Also the characteristics of the average investor in 2012 are completely different than in 2023.

[mk4]

It's just FUD in general — not necessarily because the halving is around the corner. I'm pretty sure the government could care less about the halving. The FUD recently has mostly been before the spot ETF announcements — it's a pretty safe assumption that it's been coordinated.

[franky1]

to correct the time line.
there is no price drama the year of a halving.
historically the price drama happens a year after


2009 bitcoin had no market
2010 first price discovery/setting of prices to match coin mining yield
2011 was the 'year later ATH'

2012 halving had no drama
2013 was the 'year later ATH'
2014 corrected down again due to mtgox closure
2015 had no drama(no new highs no new lows)

2016 halving had no price drama.
2017 was the 'year later ATH'
2018 corrected down again
2019 had no drama(no new highs no new lows)

2020 halving had no price drama.
2021 was the 'year later ATH'
2022 corrected down again
2023 had no drama(no new highs no new lows)

[Mr.right85]

Yes, like the title above, we all know the halving time is will always full of drama, this always happens at that time, but I don't know why many people forget and still spread FUD everywhere. If they understand that and know it always happens on every 4 years, they shall be calm and relaxed to face SEC, Binance, or anything drama.

The halving becomes a time where, human greed is expressed.
I call it human greed in the fact that, despite the FUD that would be passed or rally along the halving, its the time where you would find new investors and those with shaking hands find the courage to buy or hold on a little longer yo there precious bitcoin  and sats to earn them more value. Its a time where you find users fixing there eyes on the price rather tha  the many FUD that would be tossed around.
Then you would have those who wished they ha invested early and those who wished, they didn't sell when they sold and the rest who wished, they had held to them precious sat and not looked at it to be worth nothing.

[bussybuddy]

Various events in the history of development or information surrounding drama, the economy, technology issues, etc. can all turn into causes that affect prices. I have also been listening to many discussions about the halving, honestly I believe that bitcoin will increase with that trend, maybe the recent problems caused panic, I also understand the problem. While many in this market don't fully understand what's going on inside, we're just tools for influencers who want to manipulate prices through tools. Thinking about the future and believing in the goals set can be seen as an experience that we already know, the market will always appear new people and cunning people want to manipulate price to pump/dump, even though we know that the market has grown strongly in the past time, the reality is that compared to the financial environment, we are still small enough to be easily manipulated and caused volatility.

[Z390]

This numbers of manipulation from the SEC is not because of the next Bitcoin halving is around the corner, it's just the way things are in the crypto space, for those in the upper levels to get good buying opportunities,  they need to make something bad happen and they will throw in some millions of dollars, many people still don't understand that this whole thing is a game of the mind, if you are weak you will surely fail and if you are strong you will witness the next bull market in good shape.

Also, do not expect that the Bitcoin price will start to pump right after the halving, it's always some months later into the next year, so if this next Bitcoin halving happens in 2024, the market will start to pump in 2025.

[Darker45]

The market has always been full of drama. It's not like there's drama when the halving is near and the same would subside as the halving has taken place. This is not true. FUD comes and goes all the time. It's not dependent on the halving.

As for the SEC and its filing of charges against Binance and CZ, not only is it totally unrelated to the upcoming halving, it is also not intended to cause a market dump. Neither is it done to scare anybody about Bitcoin so that they would be able to buy it at a cheap price. This is also not true.

You might want to read the interesting opinion of d5000 on this.

[Latviand]

You being a Hero Member should get used to it though, means that you've seen these things happen already so why point it out? I mean there will always be people that's going to spread FUD no matter what happens in the market even if the positivity is through the roof, those people that you're talking about will find the negatives, I remembered an Internet quote about how the optimist invents the planes while the pessimists invents the parachutes, like that quote I think that it's normal for people with varying degree of perspective to exist, life isn't linear. I guess I'll just prepare a lot of popcorn so I can enjoy all the upcoming dramas when it inevitably happens.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Yes, like the title above, we all know the halving time is will always full of drama, this always happens at that time, but I don't know why many people forget and still spread FUD everywhere. If they understand that and know it always happens on every 4 years, they shall be calm and relaxed to face SEC, Binance, or anything drama.

I hope this lesson gives you an important point. They create this to dump Bitcoin, they do this to scare you, they do this to buy Bitcoin at a cheap price, and After buying with a lot of money, you already know that today Bitcoin price is pumped like crazy, right?

So, I just want to say; Don't forget, The drama could happen again and repeat until the halving time. you must be strong and patient. you will definitely win if you face it with a quiet and strong hand if happen again in the near future.

Cheers

I'm not sure if we can call it drama, everyone is going to be excited to see another halving. Perhaps  there could be FUD, but we all know that no one can stop the eventual bull run after the halving so I guess everyone should know that game by now, don't be affected by the negativity, on the contrary just continue to accumulate even at the bull run.

Strong Hand=Diamond Hand.

Long term investment is the key before and after the halving.

[dzungmobile]

Yes, like the title above, we all know the halving time is will always full of drama, this always happens at that time, but I don't know why many people forget and still spread FUD everywhere. If they understand that and know it always happens on every 4 years, they shall be calm and relaxed to face SEC, Binance, or anything drama.

The market is sensitive with news and we always have positive and negative news in this market. When your psychology is well (positive), you ignore negative news and be more easily affected by positive news. The opposite psychological reaction will occur when you have negative psychology, you will be more sensitive with negative news, fud and not care much about positive news.

Have to mention that in bear market, negative news are more than positive news. News are all prepared behind the scene and only wait for right times to be released and make us panic or FOMO.

[sunsilk]

Yes, like the title above, we all know the halving time is will always full of drama, this always happens at that time, but I don't know why many people forget and still spread FUD everywhere. If they understand that and know it always happens on every 4 years, they shall be calm and relaxed to face SEC, Binance, or anything drama.

I hope this lesson gives you an important point. They create this to dump Bitcoin, they do this to scare you, they do this to buy Bitcoin at a cheap price, and After buying with a lot of money, you already know that today Bitcoin price is pumped like crazy, right?

So, I just want to say; Don't forget, The drama could happen again and repeat until the halving time. you must be strong and patient. you will definitely win if you face it with a quiet and strong hand if happen again in the near future.

Cheers

While many of us from here in the forum understands that the financial institutions and the media will create noise to spread fear to the weak hands.

This is a good message to those people that has just got in to the market and I think that they're on the perfect timing since we're approaching to the halving and we're also done with the bear market.

Although some may say that we can't be sure with the pattern but we do like it if there's this pattern that we've seen before. It's true there is the 4-year cycle and it happened for the past years and likely to occur again.

[BenCodie]

3 halvings, so N=2 (number of pattern repetitions). It is far from enough to proceed with such certainty and ignorance of all other factors. In a cointoss game the probability of calling 3x heads in a row (or tails three times) is 1:4 and yet to the inattentive observer the conclusions may be: 'so far it has always come up heads, so I assume that tails can never occur and I'll bet on that all my money ignoring the fact that another side of a coin exist".
it should also be noted that correlation does not imply causality and it is impossible to judge causality on such a young and volatile financial instrument with such a small sample.

Returning to the halvings, each subsequent halving is different and from a fundamental point of view it is advisable to expect an increasingly weaker impact on the valuation because:

1st halving was important. It reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Thats a big deal. Second halving decreased monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from like 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. So my bet is that halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions etc. Bitcoin will be more like an asset that act sometimes like gold on steroids sometimes like sp500 on steroids rather than it will fallow "bubble x days before each halving scheme"

Also the characteristics of the average investor in 2012 are completely different than in 2023.

That's exactly right. One assuming that there will be a dump just because of unrelated events (or manipulation) is irrational.

We are at a stage now where protocols are running in a more ethical and viable way. Institutions around the globe have holdings of crypto (whether they like to admit it or not). Liquidity is also much higher, and I can only imagine how much liquidity there will be when a bull run forms.

[Adbitco]

When we talking of FUD what do you classify it to be?
As a long term fellow or bitcoiner you should be able to connotes or detects is a usual practice that regularly occurs before getting into bitcoin halving. I don't think anyone who knows all these would ever want to sell their bitcoin due to some sudden change in price, yes we know news must carry out something to reflect the price changes but as a wise investor you are not supposed to panic.
However, price only drop after bitcoin having since most people might have utilized the opportunity to sell high and then result to dump, everyone target is pointing at the halving and i believe after that we might witness strong dip as well.

[hugeblack]

So, I just want to say; Don't forget, The drama could happen again and repeat until the halving time. you must be strong and patient. you will definitely win if you face it with a quiet and strong hand if happen again in the near future.

It is true to be patient, but do not trust 100%. Many trusted the Bitcoin model, in which the price will reach $100,000 before 2022, and then they were surprised when the price collapsed after the $70,000 mark. Therefore, historical data alone cannot tell us the truth, but I must research and think about investing in the long term, more than a price cycle of more than 4 years)

So as long as you think about it beyond 4 years, maybe 10 or 20, you won't be interested in short-term news.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

By now it’s widely known what happens when the block reward is cut in half every four years. Hopefully people HODL through any FUD we may get in the next 12 months or so because the price will rapidly increase very soon. The price will probably gradually increase over the next 12 months with a correction here and there. It will be 2025 that the real run upwards will take place though.

[Minecache]

I don't see any connection between Fuds and halving, instead, Fuds are part of the market, and it can happen at any time, but it will happen more in a bear market. People are quite concerned about the lawsuit surrounding the SEC and Binance, but I find that too normal. Without the SEC crackdown, there will also be other Fuds that will hit the market, just like when the bear season starts, if Luna and FTX don't crash, there will be other black swans.

Also, do not expect that the Bitcoin price will start to pump right after the halving, it's always some months later into the next year, so if this next Bitcoin halving happens in 2024, the market will start to pump in 2025.

A lot of people are making this mistake. Many are expecting bitcoin to bounce immediately after the halving is triggered, but that won't happen. I also believe more interesting things await us, as everyone is looking forward to the halving, and what happens when the bulls don't come right after the halving?

[Gozie51]

The SEC issues with binance exchange is just one of the FUD that comes in the market once in a while and strong hands understand this and not panicked to dump. While the bloc splitting happens every 4 years which becomes most outstanding reason for hodlers who understand that whatever value of bitcoin they have will increase after the halving process. FUD will come in different ways and strategy while bitcoin value keep appreciating after each 4 years.