A bitcoin retirement plan with a disturbing length of years.

[Lida93]

I have this colleague of mine at workplace who is a bitcoin enthusiast just like me. Often times at work when we're less occupied with our job we kind of spend such moment's  discussing about bitcoin generally. Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

[Ryu_Ar1]

I do the same because i also budget a few per cent of my salary to buy bitcoin every month but in this case the difference is probably in terms of plan.
I will not see a plan even until retirement to be in bitcoin because in this case the goal to invest must have a target and my target is not that long.
It is true that bitcoin definitely requires a long enough duration but on the other hand spending 16 years with confidence without seeing anything even though it is not prohibited but this method is too extreme in my opinion.

I always remind myself that I will be here for some targets where I will sell some in ATH before and some I will wait to be higher if it is possible and wait back with corrections and some crashes that exist later.

[franky1]

my bitcoin hoard is at 11 years and i dont plan on doing anything in the next 5 years. so 16 years is not unreasonable
for someone that thinks of the value as a retirement fund.

what you have to consider is the whole "dont risk investing more then you can afford to lose" meaning the fiat he puts into bitcoin does not need to be taken out any time soon. its nothing he requires to live/survive on right now. he can afford to live without touching it, using it. and has no need to take anything out anytime soon

as for savvi investing. yes if at every ATH people were to cash out some and then using those funds not to spend on goods/services for lifestyle stuff. but to instead buy back btc at the correction to the post-ATH low. to maximise btc yield totals more, would be of good investment strategy.. but timing what the high is or what the low is has risks and is a bit of guess work.

i personally just hoarded 90% as is, untouched for 11 years spent about 5% and 'shorted' the other 5% amount. yes i can see i could have grew alot more coin holdings by riding the 4 year cycles of shorting an ATH. but i am still happy to have just majority hoarded aswell

i might at the next 2025 ATH short 10%-20% of my hoard and buy back in at the post-ATH correction which might be 3x lower meaning it turns 10-30% into 30-60% of hoard.. but i may also do nothing again and just keep things as is. either way ill gain in the long run. i definitely wont be cashing it all out,

alot of people in hindesight after a market history can be viewed, will say "you should have done this at that time and done that at this time" but no one in the moment can know what the future will result in. no one can predict accurately the exact top of a ATH and the exact correction of a new post-ATH bottom.

as long as he doesnt need the money now. he has no need to cash out any time soon. and with each 4 year cycle hoarding reaps its own benefits of doing nothing

[Zaguru12]

Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

This is certainly a great plan because the percentage set for the investment is actually a percentage that most experts actually advise on when investing into bitcoin. Also the year is quite long couple with the fact that this isn’t a one time buy, the monthly buy looks exactly like someone applying the DCA method which minimizes the risk of lost because it will be quite hard to have bitcoin way below its intial value after 16 years (this has been proven by past trend of bitcoin).

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

This also is a better alternative because even if we believe in bitcoin’s future we are not certain of the kind of regulations or policy that would be implemented by the government in the future, and this are things that could shape the adoption process of bitcoin. So i second your suggestion of him taking the profits off after the very halving, since every halving has the potential to make each bitcoin grow to multiple times its price. This profits can be used to buy other assets that have stores of value or used to open up business(es). The profits from the business(es) can then be used again to buy more bitcoin and then same process continues on each halving. This will minimize the risk of depending on one source of retirement income

[Sandra_hakeem]

...to the best of my discretion, I'll say it's safe to HODL cus - the prove of reliability has been made certain through the years ... But also, that's not giving anyone a just course to place his entire skepticism - cus even life itself doesn't seem to last forever.. Though BTC might devalue, but WHATEVER HAPPENS IN FUTURE, YOUR BITCOIN REMAINS YOURS FOR LIFE!!
That being said, I don't support HODLing Bitcoin as a retirement plan... Cus 16 years is quite a long time and since he's so enthusiastic about this whole cryptography, he might end up staking up everything, without anything to fall back to. What if these usual ban extensions are being made around his peripherals and with that, VPNs are rendered useless and KYCs are forcefully imposed?? What if the value reduces to something really unbearable?? .... _{just what if??! Rhetorical!}

alot of people in hindesight after a market history can be viewed, will say "you should have done this at that time and done that at this time" but no one in the moment can know what the future will result in. no one can predict accurately the exact top of a ATH and the exact correction of a new post-ATH bottom.

Having a dual thoughts is imperative which, is what I see here In Franky's sentence... MAYBE FRANKY'S right?

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

[Faisal2202]

I think your colleague's idea is not made by keeping any risks factors in mind, he simply made the most simplest retirement plan of saving 20% in BTC every month, and if i am not wrong, you are suggesting him to buy/invest in BTC after every four year maybe with 50% of his total savings.

If that's what you are suggesting then, i totally agree with you because in this way, your friend will be able to buy from every dip, no wonder he would not be able to get benefit from 100% dips but he would be able to increase his profit ratio unlike by his own 20% plan.

I think he preferred this plan because he is not that technical person or he did not wants to spend so much time on analyzing the market and so far, in my POV (to some extent only) if you are holding for 16 years, its like fours halvings, then analyzing the market did not matter at all.

But if he could follow the market trend and put money accordingly instead of every month then his profit ratio will increase

[BIT-BENDER]

From you stand point on this you actually don't believe in Bitcoin, even though I find it weird that you here already and still have doubts about Bitcoin, despite that you are always entitled to your opinion, but this is that rare case someone from this forum comes out open to write that they had a discussion with someone else and tried talking them about their concerns on Bitcoin.

If you don't think Bitcoin would Last as long as 16yrs what makes you feel what ever alternative you have would also last that long, nothing is certain not even fiat, the world keeps advancing and before Fiat we have had other means of exchange. I think your friend is making a smart choice,the only let down I see is that he may be affecting his standard of living giving out that percentage of his salary in saving for Bitcoin depending on what the salary looks like.

[The Cryptovator]

Despite its 16-year history, Bitcoin has proven to be a compelling idea. If your colleague possesses a good understanding of Bitcoin, they should make informed decisions. In my opinion, they can continue purchasing Bitcoin over the course of 16 years while also taking advantage of its volatility in the interim. This approach does not involve active trading but rather long-term holding. For instance, when Bitcoin's price surged above $60,000 and subsequently dropped to $16,000, your friend could have capitalized on such opportunities. Although there is a certain level of risk involved, it is preferable if the plan succeeds. If not, they can still continue with their ongoing strategy of buying Bitcoin.

[blockman]

If that's the plan and if he's aware of what he is about to do then that's much better. There's no need to intervene with the plan that he's got and he may even think of you as something else if you want to go against with his plans. But I think it's all gonna depend on your approach.
If he's a guy that's willing to listen to you and knowing that both of you are bitcoin investors, no problem to suggest and voice out what you want him to say and just try it out if he'll listen to you. Otherwise, everything is fine and he's just doing the typical DCA.

[Odusko]

At the level bitcoin have reached setting aside 16 year accumulation plans wont ve a bad idea most especially when he is doing this with just 20% of his salary, the amount,, if mentioned could be very small that requires long term to build up a good amount that can suit his retirement plans.
Just as you mentioned that your colleague seems to know exactly what he is doing so at that he is on the right paths, but my concern is on job security since you mentioned working for a company, who can fire their worker at any time or go bankrupt, so instead of you worrying about the uncertainty in the future of bitcoin, you should instead worry about the job and its security and how sustainable this 20% salary investment plan will work throughout the whole period.

[salad daging]

Same I have also done this plan where every month's salary is set aside to bitcoin and this is no more than 20% unless there is other additional money that I get from field work, I think your friend's plan is quite sure about bitcoin by setting aside until he retires of course 16 years is a long term but if your friend is able to do this of course he is quite optimistic about doing this.

I appreciate the conclusion about your opinion to change the plan to 4 years and take only 50% of the total invested, but the plan belongs to your colleague, of course it will be different even though you have thought about the risks in the future but think you don't need to worry about bitcoin if it takes much longer to store let alone dozens of years then it will be even more valuable, I won't even doubt the uncertain future of bitcoin according to you but in my opinion bitcoin will definitely be better.

[initim]

I have this colleague of mine at workplace who is a bitcoin enthusiast just like me. Often times at work when we're less occupied with our job we kind of spend such moment's  discussing about bitcoin generally. Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

16 years of saving 20% of his salary into BTC may be a wrong and risky move because of the uncertainty. I feel he should not dive into this if the saving is really towards retirement.
Money saved for retirement purposes should be kept as safe as possible. I want to believe that the organization he currently works with has a retirement saving account for him already because this is done for all employees in my home country. In my country, there's a retirement saving plan called AVC(additional voluntary contribution), which is an additional voluntary inflow save towards retirement, here the employee can instruct the employer to deduct an X amount of money from the salary and add to the mandatory contributions. I will suggest that your friend take this type of approach because Pension contributions are largely invested in secured investments with minimal risk instead of investing his hard earn money in BTC for 16 years.

I will also suggest that he can do like 5% in BTC for the duration of 16 years(Take the interest as often as possible) In my own opinion,20% is too high. However, if the retirement plan stated above is not available in his workplace then he should invest 15% out of the 20% in a more secure investment because he's saving towards retirement while 5% goes into BTC.

[Upgrade00]

16 years is not a disturbing number of years, it's a regular number if you're thinking long term investments. If one is not certain what it could look like in 16 years then you are equally not certain how the next day or week would affect the currency.

We sometimes refer to how cheap it was 10-12 years ago, but to have been able to benefit from the price increase you need to have held for a long period of time, close to the retirement plan of your friend.

[blackened515]

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

What if the 14th year happens to be the year where bitcoin experience its new ATH and the 16th year is experiencing a heavy bear losses to it's previous low. On the other hand, why don't him divide his portfolio into other outstanding Altcoins for a safe investment where he buys different coins on every pay day. Is it good to advise him that way for his own betterment?

We sometimes refer to how cheap it was 10-12 years ago, but to have been able to benefit from the price increase you need to have held for a long period of time, close to the retirement plan of your friend.

And also to invest with huge amount of funds, using low amount of money to getting low amount of Bitcoin would yield little gain, over really, it's also depends on him his target as to what his expecting. It's be best to buy a good tangible quantity of Bitcoin because that really matters alot.

[lionheart78]

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

Thinking the possibility of Bitcoin breaking its ATH every four year, your colleague's idea is superb IMO.  20% of his income to put into Bitcoin investment is a gigantic move to securing his future if the assumption of Bitcoin hits the mark every cycle.

For 16 years, that is about 4 cycles for Bitcoin not only he is saving money but also growing it.  I have a strong belief that if your friend is able to walk the talk then after 16 years, he might have a comfortable post-retirement day assuming that Bitcoin will continue to uptrend.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

What if the 14th year happens to be the year where bitcoin experience its new ATH and the 16th year is experiencing a heavy bear losses to it's previous low. On the other hand, why don't him divide his portfolio into other outstanding Altcoins for a safe investment where he buys different coins on every pay day. Is it good to advise him that way for his own betterment?

He can always wait for the 17th, 18th, or whatever year when Bitcoin breaks another ATH.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

In my opinion, I think your friend can go ahead with his plans. As the years go by, he will always keep an eye on the Bitcoin trend, because if anything goes wrong, he still has his Bitcoin in control and can decide whether to sell it off or hold it. Bitcoin is not like every other centralized system that will ask you the reason why you want to sell your coin or not. Just like the banks, there is a particular huge amount you will keep in the bank, and any time you want to take it, your account manager will ask you what you want to do with the money. But Bitcoin is not like that; your friend can keep accumulating and holding it in a cold wallet, which he can also sell at any time of his choice. Perhaps he is not investing every part of his salary into Bitcoin (just 20%), but he still has the rest to do other things with, even if it's to use another 30% to carry out other investments. Then he can use the remaining 50% to solve his expenses.


Cheers 🥂, Dr.Bitcoin_Strange 👺👺

[panganib999]

I have this colleague of mine at workplace who is a bitcoin enthusiast just like me. Often times at work when we're less occupied with our job we kind of spend such moment's  discussing about bitcoin generally. Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

Pretty sure he knows how to play his cards well and he's just saying it cause in relation to today's status bitcoin is a flourishing asset that sees use and investment across various fields. When things get sour for the cryptocurrency giant in the future, or if in any case a good bitcoin replacement that offers the same benefits just with added necessary bonus arrives he'd probably jump off the bitcoin wagon the first moment he gets and would switch over to a better venture immediately.

To me what he's doing is prudent and is a testament to how people should ready for when they can't earn money anymore. It's better and all to enjoy your years but you also have to realize that you're getting old, and it will come to a point wherein you won't have the chance to earn money anymore through work, and you'd have to rely on your retirement benefits. This colleague/friend of yours knows what's up and I give him props for that.

[DoublerHunter]

If that's the plan and if he's aware of what he is about to do then that's much better. There's no need to intervene with the plan that he's got and he may even think of you as something else if you want to go against with his plans. But I think it's all gonna depend on your approach.
If he's a guy that's willing to listen to you and knowing that both of you are bitcoin investors, no problem to suggest and voice out what you want him to say and just try it out if he'll listen to you. Otherwise, everything is fine and he's just doing the typical DCA.

^That is right because that is his plan and probably he already analyzed or understands how BTC will work as an investment plan.
It is important to respect your colleague's autonomy and investment choices. If they have a good plan and understand the risks involved in investing in BTC for their retirement, it may be best to support their decision. However, if you have a good rapport with your colleague and they are open to discussions about investments, you can share your thoughts and concerns in a respectful manner. Because it is up to them to decide whether they want to consider alternative strategies or stick with their current plan.

[Z-tight]

Most people hold their retirement funds in fiat currencies, even though fiat is prone to a high level of inflation, confiscation by the bank or government or a collapse of the financial institution that is holding the funds, but yet people save their money in fiat for longer than 16 years and do not consider it to be ridiculous.

There's nothing ridiculous about holding and accumulating BTC for 16 years, BTC gives the person control of their funds, it is censorship resistant and permissionless and as long as the person owns the keys and do not lose it, the funds will be safe, so it is a better choice for long term holdings. If you're worried about what BTC's price will be at that time, it isn't possible for anyone to know, but because the supply will continue to reduce and because of the usefulness of BTC the demand will also continue to increase, then surely the price will be good even at that time.

[aoluain]

16 years is not a disturbing number of years, it's a regular number if you're thinking long term investments. If one is not certain what it could look like in 16 years then you are equally not certain how the next day or week would affect the currency.

We sometimes refer to how cheap it was 10-12 years ago, but to have been able to benefit from the price increase you need to have held for a long period of time, close to the retirement plan of your friend.

16 years isnt a very long time, I agree but it depends on what age you are when you start!

TBH those in their 20's, 30's or early 40's doing this long term retirement plan tactic is a great
move, they can esentially retire early! but for those who are older, working this plan means
they have to work until they reach retirement age to benefit from that 16 year outlook so I
would rather in my 50's work on a less than 10 year plan in order to retire early too!!

as above we have all wondered at the value of Bitcoin 10 years ago, fast forward to 2043, what
will we think/remember of todays Bitcoin values?