Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin?

[darewaller]

I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

Agreed. These cryptonews outlets might also have given less of a 50% chance for Brad Garlichouse and Ripple to win the lawsuit that the SEC filed against the company hehehe. When the ETF is approved, I reckon this is where disbelief is suddenly replaced by hope and optimism.

This image has been shared a million times and people still can't keep their logic on this. I mean it's obvious that the market has a cycle and we need to come to agreement with it and learn how to manipulate it. I have been burned by this before but I learned it and for the past bull run I took full advantage of it thankfully, and this time I am expecting to take full advantage of it again. I am not saying it's going to be easy or difficult, but I am sure that it will happen one way or another.

We are at the "hope" stage probably, and it's going to get to optimism around the new year, and then it's going to get much better after that because we are going to reach belief after halving, and peak times after the halving of course.

[1714616994]

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[bbc.reporter]

It appears the market is telling everyone that there will be no approvals for any of the applications on ETFs this year? What is everyone's speculation on this?

Also, after Grayscale won their case against the SEC, I reckon our attention should be on GBTC. Barry and his insiders would be buying much of this if they have confidential information if an ETF approval of any of the applications is near hehehe.

[dragonvslinux]

It appears the market is telling everyone that there will be no approvals for any of the applications on ETFs this year? What is everyone's speculation on this?

It's because all ETF applications that had their decision dates this week postponed. It just means there won't be an ETF approved this week, not that there won't be one this year.

Also, after Grayscale won their case against the SEC, I reckon our attention should be on GBTC. Barry and his insiders would be buying much of this if they have confidential information if an ETF approval of any of the applications is near hehehe.

They are just speculating that it will happen eventually, and I imagine in the long-term they'll be right about that as well. Since the discount was 40$ to NAV people have been speculating, now it's only around 20%.

I doubt that Greyscale will be the first ETF though, but they'll get there eventually once others are approved.

[bbc.reporter]

@dragonvslinux. However, if at the very least one of the applications was quite certain to be approved this year, should the market not begin to move more positively in anticipation to the approval?

Similar conditions for GBTC and Barry's group because if there is one ETF that will approved, GBTC converting into an ETF is 100% certain. Watch the movement of GBTC from discount to premium. This might be the first signal.

[dragonvslinux]

@dragonvslinux. However, if at the very least one of the applications was quite certain to be approved this year, should the market not begin to move more positively in anticipation to the approval?

Not on the anticipation no, that sentiment has been around for many years already. But on the approval prior to the launch event, that'd likely be a few weeks or could even be months away.

It was a similar story for other Bitcoin related launch products, futures & etf strategies etc. The market is usually bullish from the approval but then dumps after the launch.

Sometimes the launch date is only days after the approval, so potentially that could be the least fatal option, in order not to dump too hard on the news.

[Dunamisx]

It appears the market is telling everyone that there will be no approvals for any of the applications on ETFs this year? What is everyone's speculation on this?

The decision to be made on wether to approve bitcoin ETF applications or not is not base on the market indications alone, we may have a bear market althrough this season and yet there's a confirmation coming from SEC for approval, the fourteenth year perfection is good enough for them to take a look at, with being consistent in the market in other to know the difference bitcoin has from other cryptocurrencies, and now that the governments are seing more of bitcoin being recognized as an acceptable means of payment they can rely and trust, we should be expecting any good news between now till next year when the market surge, maybe by then all their doubts would have been cleared and most bitcoin ETF will be approved.

[sana54210]

@dragonvslinux. However, if at the very least one of the applications was quite certain to be approved this year, should the market not begin to move more positively in anticipation to the approval?

Not on the anticipation no, that sentiment has been around for many years already. But on the approval prior to the launch event, that'd likely be a few weeks or could even be months away.

It was a similar story for other Bitcoin related launch products, futures & etf strategies etc. The market is usually bullish from the approval but then dumps after the launch.

Sometimes the launch date is only days after the approval, so potentially that could be the least fatal option, in order not to dump too hard on the news.

I would guess that launch date would be one of the worst times to invest, because everyone would have been invested beforehand and when it happens they will just sell to take profit. I know that I could also be very wrong but I believe that it is going to be like that. We are going to end up with something that would be more like going super high before it happens and then crash when it happens to take profit.

Most many people will have too much money tied to it, so they will want to not take any more risk and sell it. Obviously this will not be true if it happens during bull run, because during big bull runs we see it go up, and then see it go up even more which means that it could happen like that as well.

[Unbunplease]

In my opinion, the mass introduction of ETFs will start in March-April 2024, by the time bitcoin halves, which will start a new bull run. A bull run doesn't start out of nowhere - you need some kind of infopod. And this information occasion is always prepared in advance

[dragonvslinux]

In my opinion, the mass introduction of ETFs will start in March-April 2024, by the time bitcoin halves, which will start a new bull run.

Am starting to get the impression that the next leg up, or otherwise new bull market, won't be until next year either now. There is also the (somewhat unconfirmed) news that FTX will be selling off $268m Bitcoin over the next 17 weeks which would take us to the end of the year. The irony being that this isn't a lot for liquidity to absorb (it'd be around $16m per week), but would likely spook investors in the immediate term.

By next year there should be a clean slate for price to be able to move back to the upside, especially once there are only a few months until the halving.

[Yamane_Keto]

Am starting to get the impression that the next leg up, or otherwise new bull market, won't be until next year either now.

Do we have some kind of prediction until the end of the year? I used to see you posting some technical analysis indicators, but I haven’t seen any of them for a while. Notice that the price is losing momentum and breaking $28,000 has become a challenge. So, will we remain below 30,000 for the end of the year, or might we settle between 26,000 to 36,000, or lower than that?

[dragonvslinux]

Am starting to get the impression that the next leg up, or otherwise new bull market, won't be until next year either now.

Do we have some kind of prediction until the end of the year? I used to see you posting some technical analysis indicators, but I haven’t seen any of them for a while.

People have a lot of predictions as always, either up or down, but neither seem that convincing to me until either the current $25K support level fails or $28K resistance breaks. Generally people think a re-test of $20K or $30K will come next, personally I think $23K is the next level of support based on volume profile over the past year or so. Based on today's price action it seems that $25K is unlikely to hold as support (again) but that said it's too early to tell being the first day of the week. Given the news of FTX liquidations "apparently" on the horizon I don't trust price action so much right now as it's being heavily influenced by news events.

For example price could crash to $23K, even $20K, based on the liquidation news. But then if it turns out these liquidations won't be happening anytime soon then price could swiftly recover. I'm otherwise not so convinced of breaking $30K this year anymore, we had the opportunity for that to happen for about 3 months but bulls failed, so not expecting that opportunity to return very quickly, not until next year imo. At a guess I think consolidation between $20K to $30K until the end of the year seems relatively likely. This has more or less been the case for the past 9 months so I see no reason it can't continue for another 3 months.

That said if $25K does somehow hold as support and $28K breaks as resistance, then the chances of breaking $30K resistance level increases. As does the possibility of consolidating between $25K and $30K for another few months, given price has already consolidated in this range for 6 months, confirming there is a healthy balance at present between buyers and sellers in this range. I guess this is why I don't have a lot of technical analysis right now, because it's generally based on "more or the same price action", ie sideways or consolidation, rather than bullish/bearish, even if some lower prices come first. At least until something gives.

[Velemir Sava]

In my opinion, the mass introduction of ETFs will start in March-April 2024, by the time bitcoin halves, which will start a new bull run. A bull run doesn't start out of nowhere - you need some kind of infopod. And this information occasion is always prepared in advance

And  maybe The real impact of an ETF launch on Bitcoin prices can be seen in the timing of the launch, the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, and how institutional investors react to the news.

This is normal, because the price response to the launch of an ETF cannot be predicted with certainty and I see that the introduction of an ETF also has the potential to be manipulated by large market players, giving rise to price manipulation and negative consequences for retail investors. However, the details are only when it has been approved whether it is true or false.

[taufik123]

-snip-
This is normal, because the price response to the launch of an ETF cannot be predicted with certainty and I see that the introduction of an ETF also has the potential to be manipulated by large market players, giving rise to price manipulation and negative consequences for retail investors. However, the details are only when it has been approved whether it is true or false.

About the potential for manipulation because the launch of the ETF can already be predicted and of course big players will do the best possible manipulation.
Negatively or positively impact retailers depending on how retailers seize the moment.
Don't fight their manipulation, we have to be prepared for anything that can happen.

Right now people are focused on talking about BlackRock's ETF filing and there is a possibility that the other 2 institutions,
namely Grayscale and CBOE, will get approval or at least get a decision on their matter, in front of the world's largest asset manager.

These three institutions are competing with each other for the First Spot Bitcoin ETF and certainly the one who benefits the most is that Bitcoin investors will be the winners


 Source: K33 Research | BlackRock Bitcoin ETF timeline

[naikturun]

I think in the short term it will still have an effect but not a big impact, for example, when good news appears, bitcoin and eth will rise for a short time and then slowly fall again.
Even though the impact was small, at least it increased when the news was announced.
I will take another example, when the CEO of Binance resigned, of course it had an impact on the price of BNB, even if only slightly.

[jeraldskie11]

I think in the short term it will still have an effect but not a big impact, for example, when good news appears, bitcoin and eth will rise for a short time and then slowly fall again.
Even though the impact was small, at least it increased when the news was announced.
I will take another example, when the CEO of Binance resigned, of course it had an impact on the price of BNB, even if only slightly.

Not only BNB, other cryptocurrencies as well including Bitcoin. ETF is kind a fundamental in order for the price to move, it's a good news to crypto enthusiast since it will give positive impact to Bitcoin once it is approved. There are news that very important to crypto and we should be aware of that because they commonly use it to manipulate retail traders and investors. One of that is FOMC, this news affects Bitcoin's price in a positive or negative way, we should take care of our funds. In my opinion, if you're not sure in the market or if the market is unreadable it's better stay away from the market and go back when the manipulation ends.

[el kaka22]

I think the outcome of these things are not really all that certain, and we should be careful when we are making decisions like this. I mean it's quite clear that ETF is something that government really takes a look at very clearly and closely, which means that it is going to be hard to get it accepted. I know that it may not be all that easy to handle, but it is going to be possible eventually. So, we should be clear on what we are assuming that will happen, if we keep on having too much hype about this then when it gets postponed like it always does, then we would be upset.

Market learned about this the hard way, it has stopped caring about getting approved or not, because they realized without getting a concrete response, there is no need to buy or sell. Nowadays, we ignore it completely, and wait for it to get a response and if it any of them gets accepted then I bet the price will go up a lot but before that I do not think that we will react anyway.

[Jating]

I think the outcome of these things are not really all that certain, and we should be careful when we are making decisions like this. I mean it's quite clear that ETF is something that government really takes a look at very clearly and closely, which means that it is going to be hard to get it accepted. I know that it may not be all that easy to handle, but it is going to be possible eventually. So, we should be clear on what we are assuming that will happen, if we keep on having too much hype about this then when it gets postponed like it always does, then we would be upset.

It's obvious though, we don't have the control and the power as to when the ETF will be approved by the SEC and for sure, we don't look at it this year. Nevertheless, based on the news that we heard and the entities involved, who knows, the likelihood though might be high as SEC can't delay or not approve it in the future.

Market learned about this the hard way, it has stopped caring about getting approved or not, because they realized without getting a concrete response, there is no need to buy or sell. Nowadays, we ignore it completely, and wait for it to get a response and if it any of them gets accepted then I bet the price will go up a lot but before that I do not think that we will react anyway.

With that, let the market flows normally, we have seen this already, and I think we have seen worst like in the bear market. But at the end of the day, the market is very resilient to attacks and negative news, so what's more with a positive outlook in a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval? Everything is good now. And lest we forget, there will be the block halving scheduled for next year.

[gunhell16]

From what I see, as others have said here, the ETF's upcoming halving and bull run will have a different outcome compared to past halvings. These are what I see and feel. And we can also notice that in the speculations of the other famous people in this industry.

And a lot is really expected in this matter; it seems that what we read and watch in various news stories in the crypto space is all positive. But we still shouldn't be confident because, at the end of the day, ETF will still be the next to approve this matter.

[thecodebear]

Whenever an ETF is approved, whether it is sometime next year or a few years from now, it'll definitely cause a large spike in price. After the spike could be some people will try to sell the spike to crash it back down some, but the overall price effect will be very positive.

And that's just of course the news of an announcement. Once the ETF(s) start operating and billions of dollars start buying up Bitcoin that'll of course also cause a large price spike.

[carlfebz2]

Whenever an ETF is approved, whether it is sometime next year or a few years from now, it'll definitely cause a large spike in price. After the spike could be some people will try to sell the spike to crash it back down some, but the overall price effect will be very positive.

And that's just of course the news of an announcement. Once the ETF(s) start operating and billions of dollars start buying up Bitcoin that'll of course also cause a large price spike.

If we do have that success ETH or approval on January 2024 then it would be a huge spike.

‘Mark Your Calendars’—Date Revealed As Huge $17 Trillion Bitcoin ETF Countdown Suddenly Begins, Heralding Ethereum, XRP And Crypto Price Chaos
Source

ETF is good yet institutional would really be that flowing into this market but i dont really like when we do speak about its cons.
Anonymity would really be that somewhat will be an issue. Am i right?