Why do 90% of Bettors Lose in Sports Betting in the Long-term?

[alexluthor]

Understanding the concept of fair odds is a pivotal step towards grasping why the vast majority of bettors continually face losses in the realm of sports betting.

Let’s start with a simple coin toss, where each side holds a 50% chance (or 0.5) of landing face-up. The fair odds here would be 1/0.5 = 2.

Now, consider a six-sided dice roll. Each face possesses a 16.67% chance (or 0.1667) of landing face-up. The fair odds, in this case, would amount to 1/0.1667 = 6. If you bet on five out of the six faces, you secure an impressive 83.33% chance (or 0.8333) of winning. The fair odds for this scenario equate to 1/0.8333 = 1.2. In other words, if you place a $1 bet on five out of the six faces and win, you’ll receive $1.2.

At this point, you might be tempted to think that betting on favorites with low odds would ensure long-term success. However, that’s not the case.

Let’s delve into some calculations:

Expected Value (EV) in statistics is a predicted value of a variable. It is calculated as the sum of all possible values, each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. In the context of sports betting, EV represents the long-term average payoff from an event. If the EV is positive (+EV), the bet holds the potential for profitability in the long run. Conversely, if the EV is negative (-EV), the bet is likely to result in losses over time.

EV = (Fair Win Probability) x (Profit) - (Fair Loss Probability) x (Loss)

Consider an operator that charges a commission for the dice roll game, causing the favorite to have odds of 1.17 and the underdog odds of 5.85.

What would happen if you bet on the favorite in the long run?

You’d end up facing losses. Let’s calculate:

EV = 0.8333 x ($0.17) – 0.1667 x ($1) = -$0.025

In this case, for every $1 bet, you’d lose $0.025.

The result would be the same if you bet on the underdog with odds 5.85:

EV = 0.1667 x ($4.85) – 0.8333 x ($1) = -$0.025

It doesn’t matter whether you bet on low odds or high odds; in the long run, you’ll lose money.

Now, imagine a tennis match where two players are evenly matched, each holding a 50% chance of winning. The fair odds for both players would be 2.0. However, bookmakers offer lower odds, such as 1.9 for each player. This discrepancy represents the bookmakers’ commission.

Let’s calculate the EV with odds of 1.9:

EV = 0.5 x ($0.9) - 0,5 x ($1) = -$0.05

These examples highlight one of the main reasons why the majority of bettors struggle to make profits in sports betting.

Placing bets based on guesswork simply doesn’t work!

So, how can you break free from this cycle of losses?

To beat the bookmakers, you need an EDGE, a strategic advantage that maximizes your chances of success. Here are some proven strategies that bettors can explore:

Value Betting: This strategy involves identifying differences between perceived probabilities and bookmakers’ odds. Experienced bettors gain an advantage by strategically placing bets on outcomes with higher odds than the actual probability suggests. A simple way to find value bets is by comparing the odds offered by different bookmakers and considering the odds from “sharp bookmakers” such as Pinnacle as the “fair value.” If you find a significant difference, you have identified a value bet. This approach sets the foundation for long-term profitability, although some variance is expected.

Arbitrage Betting: This simple yet clever technique capitalizes on variations in odds offered by different bookmakers. By placing wagers on all possible outcomes of an event, you guarantee a small profit, regardless of the result. However, it’s essential to be aware of potential risks, such as the cancellation of bets by bookmakers.

Bonus Hunting: Exploit bookmakers’ bonuses to maximize your earnings. The term “bonus” refers to promotional offers (free bets or deposit matches) that bookmakers provide to new or existing customers as an incentive to sign up or continue using their services. You have to use the bonus hunting strategy along with value bet or arbitrage.

In addition, effective risk management and emotional decision-making are paramount. It’s crucial to allocate your funds wisely, set a budget, and avoid impulsive bets driven by emotions.

To consistently accumulate wealth with low risk, two standout approaches have proven their worth: Bonus Hunting and Arbitrage Betting. I have personally employed these strategies since 2011, experiencing consistent success with profits exceeding $1 million. However, it’s important to remember that individual results may vary.

To further enhance your knowledge about bonus hunting and arbitrage to increase your chances of long-term profitability, I highly recommend checking out the eBook “Be The Hunter.” This comprehensive guide provides step-by-step instructions on implementing a robust betting strategy, managing risks, bonus hunting, and maximizing your earnings.

Get your FREE copy at https://bethehunternow.com/how-to-make-money-in-sportsbetting

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[Oshosondy]

We have some discussion in the past about using expected value to calculate the profitability of a sport match. I do not bet often and I only bet with low amount of money, I do not think I should be so selective after any match can go the other way.

What I mostly depended on in sport bet is analysis. Once I check the previous matches played by a team, check how often they are scoring in a league, check their head-to-head and knowing the players they are going to use. I use that to determine the match that I should bet on or not.

Arbitrage betting may not be illegal, but if bookies know that a particular person is using the strategy, or having more than one account for arbitrage betting which can be against the gambling site, because most gambling sites tell their users to have only one account. Such person if known to the gambling site as an arbitrage bettor, the money won won't be paid, if having more than one account, his accounts would be merged.

Doposit bonus hunting is good, but with one account per site would be profitable. But it is totally against the terms of service of gambling sites for their users to be using more than one account for bonus hunting.

[tusandii]

Placing bets based on guesswork simply doesn’t work!

Everyone will bet when they get a good prediction and in this prediction gamblers usually always do research and analysis.
Even though it doesn't guarantee a win but such way is better than just guessing randomly to risk some money.

So, how can you break free from this cycle of losses?

No one can escape the cycle of losses because in the gambling industry all that is written before their eyes is defeat.
The only thing gamblers can do is reduce losses so that they are not too large.

[maydna]

Placing bets based on guesswork simply doesn’t work!

So, how can you break free from this cycle of losses?

If you only guess which team will win in a match, it won't work because each one has the same chance. But it will show when you analyze each team that you will find more info about them. You will see how each team is performing so you will be able to choose the right team.

If you want to escape this cycle of losses, you must not gamble. That's an easy answer but most people want to recover their losses so they continue to gamble. If they have won, they want to get more wins and it's their greed that comes and whispers to keep playing.

[Yatsan]

Not only with sportsgambling but to all gambling games. Reason? Winning is never certain therefore playing more often would expose you to higher risk. Even if you happened to won big, it'll eventually be turned into loss; you won't win always. Higher exposure means higher risk unless you are lucky enough. Analysis would work indeed in sportsbetting but as we all know, anything could happen within a match. Even underdogs has chances to win and if you would be too greedy of winning because you have a lowe odd bet, then be prepared to suffer big time as well once the unexpected happens. We are all prone to greed and frustration.

[Gozie51]

Sports betting doesn't really involve guess work. I think this aspect of betting is more dependent on analysis of the games to be played if it is football etc, you go for the previous performance, head to head and many other analytical factors to have a reason to bet in favour of a particular team. i don't believe sports betting involves mathematical models based on probabilities that is out of the more practical experience in the past. However, it is not only sports betting that has such losing rate but it is across the games including casinos.

[bittraffic]

Nice. I started reading from the top, I was very amazed at what I have been reading since I have been doing exactly what he meant about betting on the favorite in the long run. Nicely written intro until I realize it was actually a pitch about this "Be The Hunter".

You find it BS because lets you believe that you'll lose money regardless of whether you bet on low odds or high odds. One good thing he told though is checking the odds on other bookies. Its very much needed when you doubt about your bookmaker.

I wonder if someone from here bought that Be The Hunter.

[el kaka22]

The fact that people think they can "somehow" win against the house edge and can mathematically do this always makes me laugh. You need to realize that it's mathematically impossible to keep winning because the odds are against your own good and even at the best mathematical chance to win, you are ignoring the mathematical chance of losing on the long run anyway.

Just take the flip of a coin for example, you said it's 50%, that's true, and you can act accordingly and win, but you are forgetting that it is also quite possible that you would be able to see 10-20-30 losses in a row there as well. This is why I always say that do this type of gambling for fun and have entertainment, otherwise it's not going to work for you and you will be upset.

[wheelz1200]

Simple reason is that humans are emotional.  What I mean by that is we don't do things 100% to "the plan".  I know I personally have chased losses meaning trying to make up what  I lost in matchups that weren't ones I shoukd have leaned heavy into.  At least personally I think that's the main reason.  Instead of accepting a loss and just keep betting according to your plan we chase.

[DaNNy001]

Sports betting doesn't really involve guess work. I think this aspect of betting is more dependent on analysis of the games to be played if it is football etc, you go for the previous performance, head to head and many other analytical factors to have a reason to bet in favour of a particular team. i don't believe sports betting involves mathematical models based on probabilities that is out of the more practical experience in the past. However, it is not only sports betting that has such losing rate but it is across the games including casinos.

Be it sport betting, casino games or even virtual games they all fall under one factor which is luck. No doubt in sport betting we have the upper hand because you can actually check for stats between the two teams playing so you can make a better choice of the team you would like to put your money on but most times even with this stats checked the outcome of the games still played out differently to what we actually predicted.

[o48o]

-cut-
Placing bets based on guesswork simply doesn’t work!
-cut-
To beat the bookmakers, you need an EDGE, a strategic advantage that maximizes your chances of success. Here are some proven strategies that bettors can explore:
-cut-

The edge you wanted is to know everything about the players, the game and the culture of it. To being aware of old and new injuries, how the managers do their jobs and how different player combinations work. It's far from guesswork and i am baffled why do you think it would be similar to coin toss? Yeah, anyone can technically win but other team has higher changes to do it. And it's not like you can bet only for winner.

Your claim of 90% bettors losing their wagers doesn't seem to based on anything real.

[Gozie51]

but most times even with this stats checked the outcome of the games still played out differently to what we actually predicted.

Yes and this is why it is still gambling. With any type of gambling we have to bet as we can bear the lose so in the case where we predict a football match for example and it turns out wrongly, we don't have to gnash our teeth. For me particularly if I have tried doing my analysis and eventually goes on to bet, I don't see any mistake on my side if I lose the game unlike some bettors who will keep regretting on why they added the game that broke the camel back. I simply move on to the next one if it doesn't favour me.

[pawel7777]

OP, how would you determine the right stake for a value bet you have identified?
Let's say you can bet on only one coin toss, your chance is 50% but the payout rate is say 2.5. What percent of your betting funds would you put at stake and what logic/formula would you use?

[Sandra_hakeem]

The goal of every bettor is to make some few bucks everyday for themselves, and maybe someday hit up with a huge cash profits as a compensation for the past days of losses...but don't also forgot in a hurry that the joy and progress of any casino lies in your losses; if you don't lose, there are no wins for them....you both can't be winning, that's impossible!!
So If you're a chronic gambler, and you can summon up your senses to calculate every minor spendings and losses on casinos, You'll realize that you're invariably losing even when it feels like you're winning big; some unspecified cases are reserved from this illustration,..take note.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

[Aikidoka]

90% of bettors lose in sports betting in the long term primarily due to their game selections and of course if they engage in excessive gambling or develop an addiction. As a sports gambler myself I believe that taking breaks and only betting on games where you have a good knowledge about it can greatly increase your chances of winning. If you continuously bet on matches involving teams or players you are unfamiliar with, you'll likely end up losing in the long run. In such cases you would essentially be relying on the lowest odds offered by gambling sites which are not always accurate.

It doesn’t matter whether you bet on low odds or high odds; in the long run, you’ll lose money.

Not all gamblers would lose in the long run, some may actually end up making a great profit if they possess a good understanding of how to catch opportunities. This is because occasionally there are favorable odds available that could yield returns of x2 or x3, which are comparatively less risky than betting on a team with odds of 1.3 or 1.4 especially if you have limited knowledge about that team or you don't even know anything about the game, like just follow the lowest odd thinking that you'll win it easily!

[Slow death]

I had already commented on this in one of my posts a few days ago, I'll repeat myself, many sites people are talking about how it is possible to win over time and make a profit and that why other people don't win over time and accumulate many losses, but it's funny that no one who gives this advice doesn't show their betting results over the years, over the days, they keep writing very long texts that most of the time when I read these long texts and I get to the end of the text I'm already very sleepy

so after I reach the final of these long texts I'm wondering why they just don't post pictures with their results, with that it will be very easy for all of us to see that they managed to win Z games in X bets and made Y profit, with that too we'll see how much profit they get over the day and month and year, they won't need to write a very long text that has a lot on the internet, with proof and easier to believe, with that I want to encourage the OP to take time and show in this thread your betting results

[DoublerHunter]

~snip~
Your claim of 90% bettors losing their wagers doesn't seem to based on anything real.

^Though there are some points that OP I agreed but I think there is no exact percentage on this.
Because I believed in myself that the precise figures may vary depending on various factors such as the type of sports, the level of expertise, and the strategies employed by individual bettors.
I think having knowledge about the teams, players, and the sport itself can significantly enhance your chances of making successful bets. Conducting thorough research, analyzing historical data, and having an up to date about various factors that can influence the outcome of a game can help you identify potential opportunities.

[goinmerry]

Whatever technical analysis regarding EVs or any related sports betting terms, it doesn't really the main factor why most bettors lose in the long run.

Simple, sports betting is gambling and we are challenging the risks here. If sports betting is that easy, then we won't end up in a discussion like this.

Even professional sports bettor loses as we speak because matches are not that predictable. Even the goal though is to minimize the losing streak, it's not that simple to do. Therefore, try our very best to consider those important factors before hitting that place the bet button.

At this point, you might be tempted to think that betting on favorites with low odds would ensure long-term success. However, that’s not the case.

I considered that as the worst mindset. That was even riskier compare to placing a bet on high odds.

[Wakate]

That is how gambling had been working since and those that know how to find there way without having so much loses are the pro gamblers we have that are doing well making different bets earning hugely. Everything I know have a strick that we can play to earn from and sometimes if we are not doing it in the right way, we can easily make huge loses that will make us regret why we ever decided to gambler.

Gambling is not for everybody and that is one of the reason why people keep losing in sport bets. Just imagine wanting to use $5 to win $100,000. What's the probability of that happening? Very slim!

[ralle14]

Shopping for bonuses and other promotions is probably the best out of the three strategies as i've already tried them all at one point. The best part about these sports bonuses is their small minimums, but for the profits, it's good enough since they always have a maximum limit of around $100 or less. This strategy can also become problematic if you frequently do it, as some bettors mentioned before they eventually can't participate in future promos and bonuses.