Why do 90% of Bettors Lose in Sports Betting in the Long-term?

[len01]

I appreciate the analytical understanding of gambling you already have and especially in sports betting but to me this is all less complicated because sometimes gamblers don't always care about profit but just come for the fun of it.

-snip

To consistently accumulate wealth with low risk, two standout approaches have proven their worth: Bonus Hunting and Arbitrage Betting. I have personally employed these strategies since 2011, experiencing consistent success with profits exceeding $1 million. However, it’s important to remember that individual results may vary.

from this statement it seems similar to looking for consistent income or profit at gambling, right? If true, to me this would violate the natural law of gambling that profiting from casinos is always risky.
as you said bonus hunting has the risk of losing all funds to reach the wagering requirements and for arbitrage betting has the risk of account being banned from any sportbook as was the case with some people in the past.

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[Don Pedro Dinero]

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Get your copy at https://bethehunternow.com

The problem with sports betting is that it's not pure EV, it's a combination of intuition, which is subjective, and EV calculations, but what that promo doesn't say is that your intuition competes against the house's intuition. Just as in poker, which is also a combination of intuition and EV calculations, you compete against the intuition and calculations of the rival players, here you compete against houses that with computer programmes and with time are increasingly adjusting the odds better and better.

90% or more will continue to lose no matter what the article says. Even in an imaginary world where people learn how to win at sports betting thanks to the promo's advice, the bookies would have to close.

[tusandii]

as you said bonus hunting has the risk of losing all funds to reach the wagering requirements and for arbitrage betting has the risk of account being banned from any sportbook as was the case with some people in the past.

Not only bonus hunting, but all forms of activities that risk money in the gambling industry carry the risk of losing money and of course every gambler who bets has understood and can accept the risk of losing money.
But there are not a few gamblers who cannot accept defeat and then chase victory to return the loss.

Arbitrage Betting has become a ban in most of the casinos so one has to avoid such way of betting to stay out of trouble.
But it needs to be underlined that there are many gamblers who continue to make arbitrage bets secretly and they do everything so that the casino team doesn't know about them.

[Pierre 2]

I think im bit on side of op in this debate. There is deep analysis going on in sports betting for sure. Some people are master of data and regularly watching competitions to see strength and weaknesses of opponents to pick a side. But still most of matches are full of uncertainties. There can be early red card/injury/penalty (especially in football) that would mess every calculation you made. Regular sports betting must involve some sort of arbitrage to achieve near perma profits.

[davis196]

OP, your post seems like an advertisement of this "Be the Hunter" ebook. I don't want to visit this website, because I don't trust you enough.
Are you the author of this ebook? If you are not the author are you somewhat affiliated to the author of this ebook?
Trying to win in the long term by Bonus Hunting and Arbitrage Betting doesn't seem sustainable to me. Sooner or later, the gambler will run out of Sportsbook bonuses and he will have to use VPN/residential proxy(which increases the risk of getting banned).
Also the bookies will find out about arbitrage betting and lower their odds.
Asking "why 90% of bettors lose in the long run" is the same as asking "why 90% of traders lose money in the long run" or "why 90% of the gamblers lose money in the long run". It's extremely difficult to maintain long term profits in both gambling and trading.

[Kakmakr]

I have to say, it was very discouraging to read your post and to actually see the math behind long-term Sport betting results. The house is rigged legally to drain your funds over time, if you do not know how to prevent that. 

Thank you for posting the link, I will definitely have a look at it, because I am one of the people that use some guess work to place my Sports bets. (I do compare some bookmaker odds, but I never knew it is such a science) 

[Silberman]

I have to say, it was very discouraging to read your post and to actually see the math behind long-term Sport betting results. The house is rigged legally to drain your funds over time, if you do not know how to prevent that. 

Thank you for posting the link, I will definitely have a look at it, because I am one of the people that use some guess work to place my Sports bets. (I do compare some bookmaker odds, but I never knew it is such a science) 

I do not find it discouraging, it is simply the truth, many years ago when I first started to gamble one of the first things I did was to see the odds of winning against the casino, and once I understood there was no way for me to win over the long term this opened my eyes, and since then I have treated gambling as just a way to get some fun, if addicted gamblers were presented this information before they got in that situation I am sure some of them will be able to avoid becoming addicted.

[Fiatless]

Be it sport betting, casino games or even virtual games they all fall under one factor which is luck. No doubt in sport betting we have the upper hand because you can actually check for stats between the two teams playing so you can make a better choice of the team you would like to put your money on but most times even with this stats checked the outcome of the games still played out differently to what we actually predicted.

It is a known fact that luck plays a key role in gambling because games are unpredictable. An example is the world cup in Qatar where many underestimated teams won top-rated teams. The games between Saudi Arabia and Argentina was unpredictable and most bettors never expected Morocco to win Belgium. Nevertheless, relying only on luck for gambling wins is not the best. It is also good to analyze matches before prediction.

Getting predictions from some sports betting websites or professionals might not also be a bad idea. But it is not also proper to totally depend on these websites for games because they are not also reliable, doing your analysis is ideal. It is also good to use a few bucks when using these prediction sites.

[Strongkored]

Be it sport betting, casino games or even virtual games they all fall under one factor which is luck. No doubt in sport betting we have the upper hand because you can actually check for stats between the two teams playing so you can make a better choice of the team you would like to put your money on but most times even with this stats checked the outcome of the games still played out differently to what we actually predicted.

It is a known fact that luck plays a key role in gambling because games are unpredictable. An example is the world cup in Qatar where many underestimated teams won top-rated teams. The games between Saudi Arabia and Argentina was unpredictable and most bettors never expected Morocco to win Belgium. Nevertheless, relying only on luck for gambling wins is not the best. It is also good to analyze matches before prediction.

Getting predictions from some sports betting websites or professionals might not also be a bad idea. But it is not also proper to totally depend on these websites for games because they are not also reliable, doing your analysis is ideal. It is also good to use a few bucks when using these prediction sites.

In that tournament, how many of the matches whose results were surprising or did not match the predictions compared to what was predicted? only a few of the results were surprising, the rest were according to predictions, so in sports betting the role of luck still exists but the ability to analyze matches is also very necessary, even though it doesn't guarantee a win but by not analyzing it will make it more likely that bettors will lose rather than win.
I've never used a service like that, but I suspect that if the tipster has a high win rate, then using their service certainly won't be free, so it's only suitable for big gamblers with very large funds, so the profits can exceed the money used to use the tipster

[danherbias07]

This is why I don't really like putting every bet in a spreadsheet. I just don't like computing all my wins and losses. Yes, it might be a wrong thing for others but what I want is to enjoy the moment betting for a team one at a time per day.
And, there are changes in the betting amount. Sometimes, when I feel like the team that I am betting for has a higher chance to win even though they are just a slight favorite, I'd put more money in it as I trust they can win it or better cover the spreads that I will input.

Long-term yes, it's a losing battle but if you can enjoy the day you win a game the past won't even matter much. It's not like you are going to bet forever, just adding fuel to the entertainment of the game. Watching it without a bet is not that amusing to me anymore, imo.

[swogerino]

I am not saying that have been in profit during the long run in sport betting as that is not true but lately what I found to give much more wins than lost bets is to find to over 1.5 goals with odds 1.25-1.30 each and to parlay them,you will see that at least 7 times out of 10 this will come true,I don't know if this will be in profit as the total odd is 1.60-1.70 and I think it is small profit or breaking even most of the times but just wanted to share my experience here as may be some big sport bettor find this valuable insight.

[alexluthor]

OP, how would you determine the right stake for a value bet you have identified?
Let's say you can bet on only one coin toss, your chance is 50% but the payout rate is say 2.5. What percent of your betting funds would you put at stake and what logic/formula would you use?

Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps determine the optimal percentage of your bankroll to wager:

f = (bp - q) / b

f is the fraction of your bankroll to bet
b is the payout rate minus one
p is the probability of winning
q is the probability of losing

In this case:

f = (1.5 * 0.5 - 0.5) / 1.5 = 0.1667

So, you should bet 16.67% of your bankroll on the coin toss.

In value betting, it is generally recommended to not exceed a certain percentage, such as 2% of your bankroll, to mitigate potential losses and manage risk effectively

[leonair]

Placing bets based on guesswork simply doesn’t work!

So, how can you break free from this cycle of losses?

If you only guess which team will win in a match, it won't work because each one has the same chance. But it will show when you analyze each team that you will find more info about them. You will see how each team is performing so you will be able to choose the right team.

If you want to escape this cycle of losses, you must not gamble. That's an easy answer but most people want to recover their losses so they continue to gamble. If they have won, they want to get more wins and it's their greed that comes and whispers to keep playing.

Just because a team can play well, there is no guarantee that they will always win.  If a gambler blindly places a bet on a good team without any analysis, he is bound to lose the gamble.  So of course in sports betting or any other sector of gambling, one must first analyze well before placing the bet, otherwise there will be a high risk and the possibility of losing if you panic and place the bet. Most of the gamblers suffer because of this and lose gambling because they do not analyze well and gamble in panic.

[Apocollapse]

I don't believe such calculation, although the good thing you've show betting on sports will not make someone rich. There's a strategy that has been calculated and speculated someone can able to beat the house, it called as martingale strategy. But the reality you will still lose even you use martingale strategy, this is because calculation isn't always same like the reality. Gambling is pure of luck, not something that can be proven by mathematic.

[Cryptmuster]

That is how gambling had been working since and those that know how to find there way without having so much loses are the pro gamblers we have that are doing well making different bets earning hugely. Everything I know have a strick that we can play to earn from and sometimes if we are not doing it in the right way, we can easily make huge loses that will make us regret why we ever decided to gambler.

Gambling is not for everybody and that is one of the reason why people keep losing in sport bets. Just imagine wanting to use $5 to win $100,000. What's the probability of that happening? Very slim!

It seems to me that the OP statistics given as an example will actually be even lower, I assume that those who win no more than 1-3%, all the rest lose more than win. And I noticed a long time ago that these statistics hold true for many areas where money is concerned, it works the same for trading and even for the ratio of rich to poor people on the planet. The bookie has always been hard to beat and for most it's just entertainment, but for the bookie it's business.

[alexluthor]

I had already commented on this in one of my posts a few days ago, I'll repeat myself, many sites people are talking about how it is possible to win over time and make a profit and that why other people don't win over time and accumulate many losses, but it's funny that no one who gives this advice doesn't show their betting results over the years, over the days, they keep writing very long texts that most of the time when I read these long texts and I get to the end of the text I'm already very sleepy

so after I reach the final of these long texts I'm wondering why they just don't post pictures with their results, with that it will be very easy for all of us to see that they managed to win Z games in X bets and made Y profit, with that too we'll see how much profit they get over the day and month and year, they won't need to write a very long text that has a lot on the internet, with proof and easier to believe, with that I want to encourage the OP to take time and show in this thread your betting results

I utilize bonus hunting and arbitrage strategies. Just make some calculations. In my location, there are over $10,000 in free bets and bonuses available. On average, I can profit around 40% to 50% from these offers (it's low due to the free bets). Now, multiply this amount by hundreds of friends' accounts (or friends of friends) over 10 years.

"Hey... but this goes against the bookies' T&C."

Mate, do you think the bookmaker will create rules to help you make money instead of themselves?

And there is nothing illegal about this. I am simply managing my friends' accounts. Many people will never place any bets, but the potential bonus is there for them. You just need to go and take it, and split the profits.

[noormcs5]

I don't believe such calculation, although the good thing you've show betting on sports will not make someone rich. There's a strategy that has been calculated and speculated someone can able to beat the house, it called as martingale strategy. But the reality you will still lose even you use martingale strategy, this is because calculation isn't always same like the reality. Gambling is pure of luck, not something that can be proven by mathematic.

No matter it is sports betting or it is casino games, they will always lose in the long term if they do not have any plan of action or if they do not have some money management plan along with their gambling skills.

Yes, gambling is pure luck, we have no control over the luck and we have no control over the results which comes through sports betting or through the traditional casino games. Luck cannot be with you all the time but money management save you from loses always.

[alastantiger]

So, how can you break free from this cycle of losses?

I know that gamblers not all gamblers experience a cycle of losses. Those who experience a cycle of losses are those who gamble quantitatively not qualitatively. Quantitative gamblers gamble for several hours a day every single day of the week. Even when they are out of money, it doesn't stop them. Instead of them saying why don't I step out and you know just take that money and just put my pocket and go home, they rather say that maybe I can even win more, so they keep on playing.

To break free from the cycle of losses, the gambler has to gamble qualitatively. Have a budget, set a time frame for gambling and do not go above your budget or the time you have allocated to gambling. Have other outdoor habits too. These are the starting points or the baby steps that should be taken to break free from the cycle of losses.

[maydna]

~snip~

Just because a team can play well, there is no guarantee that they will always win.  If a gambler blindly places a bet on a good team without any analysis, he is bound to lose the gamble.  So of course in sports betting or any other sector of gambling, one must first analyze well before placing the bet, otherwise there will be a high risk and the possibility of losing if you panic and place the bet. Most of the gamblers suffer because of this and lose gambling because they do not analyze well and gamble in panic.

Yes, there is no guarantee that the team will always win because of the surprise factor in the match. Often we meet a team that is not the favorite that can turn things around and even suppress a strong team so that they can win in the result. That is why we must analyze to find other information that can be useful in making a decision. This is to reduce the risk of defeat even though it will still be there with or without us analyzing it, so we have to know how much money we can place to bet. By doing so, we can avoid big losses if we lose.

[uneng]

I guess the answer for this question is pretty simple: because when the chances are at your favour odds will be very low, and when chances are against you odds are high. You have to be extremely accurate when betting on the favorite teams or athletes, but one single mistake (which inevitably happens when betting on long term) that leads the underdog to the victory will make all your previous winnings worthless, since the profit made earlier can't cover the currently loss.

It's like playing dice with 90% winning chance: losing once forces you to win another 10 rounds to recover the lost amount.

There isn't an easy solution to fix it. Most gamblers will always bet on the favorite, otherwise it wouldn't be the favorite. So you can expect 90% to continue losing to let the other 10% to have some profit.