Why do 90% of Bettors Lose in Sports Betting in the Long-term?

[darewaller]

I'm interested in sports betting in particular because the house doesn't have a strictly defined mathematical edge, so it's possible for players to actually have an advantage if the odds are misplaced.
I agree, it would be a hard task to collate reliable data. I would definitely not rely on players' self-reported profitability, as they're often deluded about it, with most being at loss but thinking they're in a "break-even" position.

We could get 100% reliable data from the betting platforms themselves, but obviously they won't share it unless forced by the governments, i.e. in a similar fashion to CFD trading platforms in Europe having to clearly display the percentage of retail investors losing money.

I would guess that there are still enough to make it so like they have enough from both sides, that's the difference. Because while you play for the X team, some people bet on the Y team and you get the return of that, so you are not taking money from the book, you are taking money from the people who bet on the other side of your bet, or at least as much as the house can make it, sometimes they win money and sometimes they lose it.

This means on every bet, they are not just purely losing, they lose "some" but not all, and this is why they are so profitable. While you may end up losing all the time (or not) they are never losing all the time, they have a guarantee that people will bet on both sides which would make it better for them.

[Weawant]

Betting on an unknown team from an unknown league is the easiest way to lose money. I agree with your opinion because I think betting money on such a team is nothing more than guesswork in the dark. They wished for luck without having a database to analyze, so in the end their victory was purely down to luck.

Sport betting is not all luck so we have to do our homework if we want to win our bets, going to bet on unknown leagues that you have no knowledge on how the teams in the league play is very wrong. Just because betting has a lot to do with luck doesn't mean you shouldn't research.

Bet only on league that you can predict the games because you're always watching the teams play and you know the strength of most of the teams playing and knowif the teams are in form or not because when you don't have this information, you'll be in the dark.

Gamblers lose when they bet on things they don't have any knowledge about. Betting on unknown league in sport betting is similar to a non poker player going to play poker. He's going to lose because his counterparts has more knowledge than him and will use that to win.

[bittraffic]

Betting on an unknown team from an unknown league is the easiest way to lose money. I agree with your opinion because I think betting money on such a team is nothing more than guesswork in the dark. They wished for luck without having a database to analyze, so in the end their victory was purely down to luck.

Sport betting is not all luck so we have to do our homework if we want to win our bets, going to bet on unknown leagues that you have no knowledge on how the teams in the league play is very wrong. Just because betting has a lot to do with luck doesn't mean you shouldn't research.

Bet only on league that you can predict the games because you're always watching the teams play and you know the strength of most of the teams playing and knowif the teams are in form or not because when you don't have this information, you'll be in the dark.

Gamblers lose when they bet on things they don't have any knowledge about. Betting on unknown league in sport betting is similar to a non poker player going to play poker. He's going to lose because his counterparts has more knowledge than him and will use that to win.

Not entirely true. There are sports bettors who are just making money betting on sports based on the odds, they do know not the sport in its entirety but yep it's a gamble but betting on favorites somehow always works. It confuses the decision of the gambler when they know how the athletes are and they get to doubt when there is a possibility of an upset but if he just looks at the money line and bet whichever has the (-) symbol he is already up for good.

[mindrust]

It is because the games are designed that way. The casinos exist only for a reason: To make money. If you were making money in the long run, the casinos wouldn't exist because your loss is their gain. If you don't lose money, who is going to feed the casino business? That's right, it is nobody but you, the player. Btw that applies to luck based games too. Dice, rocket or whatever luck-based game you are playing today, they all have an house edge. The house edge ensures that the player will be the loser in the long run. If you don't like these conditions, then don't play.

[jostorres]

In relation to the topic, has anyone actually seen any sources for that 90% figure (of bettors losing long-term)?
I tried to find it but hit a wall. There are few articles claiming that only 3%-5% of sports bettors are successful, which sounds about right, but they're not citing any specific sources but are only referring to "different studies".

If anyone has seen any actual study and could provide a link, that would be great.

There is actually no resource available for that, as you said, it's all about studies and speculations that people do based on their experience and the people they've inquired from most probably, and these studies aren't always supposed to be right as the sources might not be that much trusted, so the numbers can be different than what a person might say based on just studies and no facts and figures for the public to read and check before believing in it.

One thing we know for certain is that gambling isn't a way to earn money on a constant basis and someone eventually loses whatever they've earned from gambling back to it, but that shouldn't be the case with sports bettors who do it with experience and knowledge because they know what they are doing.

[STT]

I dont believe people actually lose 90% of the bets they place, that wouldn't add up.  That'd make a person less capable then a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a board of sports bets to place, even randomly choosing would yield somewhere closer to 50%   If this is what people mean when they ask is AI a threat to gambling then maybe, because even basic reasoning allows better returns then only 10% wins

[GigaBit]

Sports bettors must possess adequate knowledge. Bettors should have analytical skills. A bettor also needs to spend a lot of time on research but most of the times many bettors make quick bets without doing deep research, which results in short-term gains, but in the long run, their losses get high. There are a large number of bettors who cannot control their emotions. When favorite team play in the field most of the bettors also put too much faith in their favorite team but bettors should not have strong support towards a favorite team. Other tendencies among some of the gamblers such as many who bet over-confidently and some who bet addictive. Gamblers who engage in this type of behavior are more likely to lose in the long run.

[n0ne]

With casino this happens. Sports betting is much on the information available and how we predict the outcome of the match. Here also luck is necessary, but it is a factor in very few matches. With casino games it is all about choice and luck is much needed to be successful. Sports betting loses happen out of over confidence, which means they choose the odds without much analysis as well as go for big money spending.

[dunfida]

In relation to the topic, has anyone actually seen any sources for that 90% figure (of bettors losing long-term)?
I tried to find it but hit a wall. There are few articles claiming that only 3%-5% of sports bettors are successful, which sounds about right, but they're not citing any specific sources but are only referring to "different studies".

If anyone has seen any actual study and could provide a link, that would be great.

There is actually no resource available for that, as you said, it's all about studies and speculations that people do based on their experience and the people they've inquired from most probably, and these studies aren't always supposed to be right as the sources might not be that much trusted, so the numbers can be different than what a person might say based on just studies and no facts and figures for the public to read and check before believing in it.

One thing we know for certain is that gambling isn't a way to earn money on a constant basis and someone eventually loses whatever they've earned from gambling back to it, but that shouldn't be the case with sports bettors who do it with experience and knowledge because they know what they are doing.

Totally depends on the mindset for a certain individual, if they would really be treating out gambling on sports betting is something that they could rely on and making a living with it, then let it be.

Sooner or later they would really be able to realize on what are the real things that they would be able to experience along the way specially on gambling even if we do speak on something like sports betting
which you could really be able to apply strategic approach unlike on casino games which it would be understandable about being that totally random and not something you could rely.
Play according into your interest and for fun of course but people do really take into other heights or extent on which it isnt really that ideal anymore.

Why do bettors lose in sports betting in long term? There's no exact numbers on this on which there are still whose really that profitable.

[LUCKMCFLY]

With casino this happens. Sports betting is much on the information available and how we predict the outcome of the match. Here also luck is necessary, but it is a factor in very few matches. With casino games it is all about choice and luck is much needed to be successful. Sports betting loses happen out of over confidence, which means they choose the odds without much analysis as well as go for big money spending.

Yes, you are right about that, sometimes I have started to think, both the people who make and are dedicated to sports betting and trading, have many similarities and in fact both those who make sports bets and live from them, as well as There are people who live from trading, I think that at some point this will be a profession, because when it comes to money, many things apply, theories and people become Researchers, they learn to have control and apart from everything, Money takes risks and it can go well or badly , and for the people who are doing it well , it is something sustainable , because some make a living from it , so why not consider it a profession ? Such a race would be interesting.

Well, when we work with money, money calls money, if we do things well it is possible that things will go well for us, but of course with great moderation, in part when things are done with all the theory we can realize that things can go wrong, that is why some of the studies that give trgin have also been done is that 90% or more than 90% lose in trading, in games, in casinos in sports betting we also do many things and I think 90% is a little more than that, as far as I'm concerned I don't know how big this probability is or how they did the sampling to reach that conclusion, but I think the losing player stuff is more than 90%.

Of course, to talk about such a high conglomerate, we can affirm that the statistical study must be carried out by companies that are quite well-known, such as those that carry out the polls for presidential candidates or something like that, with that magnitude of seriousness, which is why I am inclined to To say that the losing number of players exceeds 90%, also if they obtained more outstanding casino data, that is fine, but you have to consider the small casinos, the most local ones, money is also handled there, also the countries where gambling is prohibited There are also clandestine casinos there, that casino volume is what should be considered.

[rahmad2nd]

Placing bets based on guesswork simply doesn’t work!

So, how can you break free from this cycle of losses?

Interesting. to be honest, it never crossed my mind to think like you said in this post. but if you want to calculate profits and losses, the simplest theory is, don't gamble. thus, you don't have to bother thinking in detail about cause and effect in long-term sports betting. conversely, how about gambling betting which is purely luck-based. isn't it the same, that in the end we will lose to the long term concept. even so, I really appreciate what you have to say in this thread for us to discuss.

For me, the theory you convey is too complicated for these calculations. ideally, in gambling we have many methods of betting. the odds don't just stick to 1×2, there are even many other choices and so on, for example. can bet on the asian handicap option, both teams to score and many more options. although in theory, basically everything has the same risk.
well, for me, betting on football is the betting that I like the most. plus, I really like football. what we do, not place a bet on guesswork. everything has rules, and we have to work around them with the knowledge and insight we have. betting is not only on the superior team, or choosing the Underdog team. everything is always through research, analysis. and for sure, we know very well, what we are doing. I mean, get to know more about the sport itself. thus, you will know what you are doing. the most important point for me football or sports betting is part of the hobby, that's why I enjoy every moment of it, it's that simple.

[Josefjix]

I dont believe people actually lose 90% of the bets they place, that wouldn't add up.  That'd make a person less capable then a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a board of sports bets to place, even randomly choosing would yield somewhere closer to 50%   If this is what people mean when they ask is AI a threat to gambling then maybe, because even basic reasoning allows better returns then only 10% wins

We face challenges, it's left for us to either resolved this issue on time or keep repeating them. You believed what you thought had been right, and even though I may have had significant losses in the system, some bettors had their accounts disintegrated. A staggering 90% of gamblers lose in the long run, caught off guard. Bettors are aware of the problems they have in the space; some have addressed them, while others have continued to make the same mistakes over time. It's understandable since losing is part of the game; we lose and win on different days of the week.

[Awaklara]

With casino this happens. Sports betting is much on the information available and how we predict the outcome of the match. Here also luck is necessary, but it is a factor in very few matches. With casino games it is all about choice and luck is much needed to be successful. Sports betting loses happen out of over confidence, which means they choose the odds without much analysis as well as go for big money spending.

In sports betting what gamblers look for is strength as well as opportunity. and results in the field cannot continue as predicted. and most of the bets have a very big chance of winning. the bet given will not be the maximum. therefore gamblers speculate with their luck by betting on matches that do offer bigger returns. like a match between 2 teams that have the same strength.

[maydna]

I dont believe people actually lose 90% of the bets they place, that wouldn't add up.  That'd make a person less capable then a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a board of sports bets to place, even randomly choosing would yield somewhere closer to 50%   If this is what people mean when they ask is AI a threat to gambling then maybe, because even basic reasoning allows better returns then only 10% wins

We face challenges, it's left for us to either resolved this issue on time or keep repeating them. You believed what you thought had been right, and even though I may have had significant losses in the system, some bettors had their accounts disintegrated. A staggering 90% of gamblers lose in the long run, caught off guard. Bettors are aware of the problems they have in the space; some have addressed them, while others have continued to make the same mistakes over time. It's understandable since losing is part of the game; we lose and win on different days of the week.

If it's the long term, anything can happen, and I suspect gamblers who gamble for a long time may have spent too much money already. That devastates them, especially if they can't stop or rest and use their time for a vacation. Maybe it will add to the big loss in gambling. We must realize that after gambling, we need to rest so that we don't lose too much and can forget about our previous defeats. But many gamblers still don't want to rest even for a few days. And if they had lost the previous time, they would want to make up for it another day. It can trigger another defeat even though we also have the opportunity to be able to recover from that defeat. But the percentage is also not too big, so we must be aware of it.

[piebeyb]

With casino this happens. Sports betting is much on the information available and how we predict the outcome of the match. Here also luck is necessary, but it is a factor in very few matches. With casino games it is all about choice and luck is much needed to be successful. Sports betting loses happen out of over confidence, which means they choose the odds without much analysis as well as go for big money spending.

Yes, sports betting requires a little bit of luck, actually it's more fun than playing in a casino because playing in a casino relies on luck, while sports betting relies more on analysis predictions as well as information, but to be honest, how can they get these statistics 90% lose, even though so far I often win in sports betting compared play casino. even for a year I only lost about 30% of my capital, the rest I lost playing casino.

As long as the analysis is correct and correct, everything will be fine, because sports betting actually relies less on luck than playing in a casino. In my personal view, sports betting is easier in my opinion than playing casino games such as slot machines. because slot machines and other casino machines in the long run may lose more than 90%.

[LUCKMCFLY]

With casino this happens. Sports betting is much on the information available and how we predict the outcome of the match. Here also luck is necessary, but it is a factor in very few matches. With casino games it is all about choice and luck is much needed to be successful. Sports betting loses happen out of over confidence, which means they choose the odds without much analysis as well as go for big money spending.

Yes, sports betting requires a little bit of luck, actually it's more fun than playing in a casino because playing in a casino relies on luck, while sports betting relies more on analysis predictions as well as information, but to be honest, how can they get these statistics 90% lose, even though so far I often win in sports betting compared play casino. even for a year I only lost about 30% of my capital, the rest I lost playing casino.

As long as the analysis is correct and correct, everything will be fine, because sports betting actually relies less on luck than playing in a casino. In my personal view, sports betting is easier in my opinion than playing casino games such as slot machines. because slot machines and other casino machines in the long run may lose more than 90%.

When we make a break between the casino and sports betting there is something clearer, in the casino when we play any game, be it slots or dice we are given only to luck, there is nothing else to do there, we have immediate results, If we lose or win at once, in the case of sports betting, things can change a bit, the responsibility is more given to the knowledge we have, a good analysis leads to a very good prediction, whatever the sport, we do We are well aware of it because it can make us earn money, and depending on the bet or the degree of money that we have bet, it can be quite a lot.

In bets like soccer or boxing, UFC fights are my strengths, it is where I have the greatest degree of knowledge, however, there are times when I can make a great analysis and the luck factor also has something present, because it can change, suddenly we can change things from one moment to another, having the best prediction of all and we can lose it without further ado.

This type of thing happens in sports, not so frequently but it does happen, sometimes in boxing the statistics are very precise, due to the history of the boxer, how many fights he has had, the degree of training, all of that influences, In fact, as I have said in various hills, a boxer wins his fight is in training, the harder the training, the easier g+ will win the fight, and well, an example of this was the fight between Crawford and Spence, which Crawfor He had been asking for the fight for a long time and Spence was cheating on him, since he asked him he was already training for that fight, and when the fight was finally given to him, Crawford shattered a Spence who thought he had everything won, So the lessons of life are sometimes hard, and it makes things change, in this case my logic, analysis and prediction were very correct and quite precise, almost hitting the prediction as I said, but it is thanks to the analysis that I took it out due to the details I saw of the training of both boxers, which means that yes, sports betting has a better chance of winning.

[pawel7777]

I'm interested in sports betting in particular because the house doesn't have a strictly defined mathematical edge, so it's possible for players to actually have an advantage if the odds are misplaced.
I agree, it would be a hard task to collate reliable data. I would definitely not rely on players' self-reported profitability, as they're often deluded about it, with most being at loss but thinking they're in a "break-even" position.

We could get 100% reliable data from the betting platforms themselves, but obviously they won't share it unless forced by the governments, i.e. in a similar fashion to CFD trading platforms in Europe having to clearly display the percentage of retail investors losing money.

I would guess that there are still enough to make it so like they have enough from both sides, that's the difference. Because while you play for the X team, some people bet on the Y team and you get the return of that, so you are not taking money from the book, you are taking money from the people who bet on the other side of your bet, or at least as much as the house can make it, sometimes they win money and sometimes they lose it.

This means on every bet, they are not just purely losing, they lose "some" but not all, and this is why they are so profitable. While you may end up losing all the time (or not) they are never losing all the time, they have a guarantee that people will bet on both sides which would make it better for them.

I'm not going to lie, I don't know how risk/operations management works "under the hood" of big betting sites, but I imagine it must be pretty complex.
The idea is simple for peer-to-peer betting sites, players bet against each other and the house gets its cut, so they don't care at all who wins or loses. But I don't think it's possible for P2P betting sites to offer fixed odds, I believe they have to be flexible as they don't know what the total pool will be when the bets are closed. That makes them less attractive to players.
In terms of non-P2P bookies, for them it's all about trying to figure out accurate odds and also to monitor their exposure to certain events. So when too much money is bet on one side of an event, they'd also be reducing the odds or, in some cases, they'd just lock such bet.

[slapper]

~snip~

When we make a break between the casino and sports betting there is something clearer, in the casino when we play any game, be it slots or dice we are given only to luck, there is nothing else to do there, we have immediate results, If we lose or win at once, in the case of sports betting, things can change a bit, the responsibility is more given to the knowledge we have, a good analysis leads to a very good prediction, whatever the sport, we do We are well aware of it because it can make us earn money, and depending on the bet or the degree of money that we have bet, it can be quite a lot.

In bets like soccer or boxing, UFC fights are my strengths, it is where I have the greatest degree of knowledge, however, there are times when I can make a great analysis and the luck factor also has something present, because it can change, suddenly we can change things from one moment to another, having the best prediction of all and we can lose it without further ado.

This type of thing happens in sports, not so frequently but it does happen, sometimes in boxing the statistics are very precise, due to the history of the boxer, how many fights he has had, the degree of training, all of that influences, In fact, as I have said in various hills, a boxer wins his fight is in training, the harder the training, the easier g+ will win the fight, and well, an example of this was the fight between Crawford and Spence, which Crawfor He had been asking for the fight for a long time and Spence was cheating on him, since he asked him he was already training for that fight, and when the fight was finally given to him, Crawford shattered a Spence who thought he had everything won, So the lessons of life are sometimes hard, and it makes things change, in this case my logic, analysis and prediction were very correct and quite precise, almost hitting the prediction as I said, but it is thanks to the analysis that I took it out due to the details I saw of the training of both boxers, which means that yes, sports betting has a better chance of winning.

Your claim that the knowledge element in sports betting results in higher odds is, in my opinion, a bit rosy. It's important to keep in mind that sports are inherently unpredictable, and that a single injury, bad day, or unexpected burst of energy from an underdog can render all prior knowledge useless

Even with expert knowledge, the unexpected can (and often does) occur, as demonstrated by your Crawford vs. Spence example. My opinion? No matter what you do, luck is always lurking around the corner. Let's not kid ourselves: there is still an element of chance in gambling, no matter how much we know

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Gamblers lose when they bet on things they don't have any knowledge about. Betting on unknown league in sport betting is similar to a non poker player going to play poker. He's going to lose because his counterparts has more knowledge than him and will use that to win.

Exactly, gamblers loose whenever they are gambling by not having experience with the bet or game they play, if we have less idea or information needed enough for them to be able to make use of the gambling opportunity to win, this could in other words mean that most of the results we get while gambling lies on our individual abilities towards what we do and how we bet while gambling, all gambling games have equal risks and same opportunities to either win or loose but it's our own choice to choose either ways to bet.

[Slow death]

Gamblers lose when they bet on things they don't have any knowledge about. Betting on unknown league in sport betting is similar to a non poker player going to play poker. He's going to lose because his counterparts has more knowledge than him and will use that to win.

Exactly, gamblers loose whenever they are gambling by not having experience with the bet or game they play, if we have less idea or information needed enough for them to be able to make use of the gambling opportunity to win, this could in other words mean that most of the results we get while gambling lies on our individual abilities towards what we do and how we bet while gambling, all gambling games have equal risks and same opportunities to either win or loose but it's our own choice to choose either ways to bet.

even if a person has high knowledge about all games, even if a person has a lot of experience in sports betting, even if that person has a very large amount of money, even with all these conditions that person will lose everything and the reason is that the odd values for the person to stay in profit are only games with odds above @ 2.00 so with each bet and victory that the person has, the person guarantees that he will have more capital to bet, but when people are betting on the games with odds below @2.00, then that person starts to suffer losses and goes bankrupt, just imagine the following scenario

the person bets on a game where he has an odd of @1.50, then he puts in 1$ and wins and with that he has 1.50$ so the next day the person returns to bet the same amount on a game where he has the same odd, but that person loses and you will be left with 0.50$ see that that person is now at a loss, so just one defeat was enough to cancel out a victory that the person had, which means that if the person wants to bet 1$ again he will have to put more money and in the long term always is bankrupt, that's the case for all of us, it happens to all of us, and that's why gambling should be seen as fun and nothing more

because even if the person tries hard, in the long run it is impossible to beat the bookmakers, games with low odds have the particularity of being more predictable games, but they are not 100% guaranteed to be correct, resulting in bankruptcy when people lose a lot . while multibet betting is like betting on luck, so they also lead to bankruptcy, and making too many single bets also leads to bankruptcy. there is no winning strategy, at the end of the day we all lose