Russian ruble is scam

[zasad@]

Ruble has considerably weakened so far this year. At the beginning of the year, it was trading against the USD at a rate of 1 USD = 60 RUR. Now the exchange rate has gone down to 1 USD = 97 RUR. The fact that the Russian government is allowing this to happen, tells us what are their priorities. When the exchange rate goes down, it benefits the exporters. Those who export grain, oil and gas from Russia are benefitting from the devaluation of the Russian Ruble. At the same time, imports will be down since they have become more expensive.  Perhaps this is what the regime wants.

And the government cannot make a currency corridor, because this will lead to the growth of the shadow market. The exchange rate of the ruble is falling because more products are imported into the country than are exported from it. And this is a great opportunity for businesses to earn good money by opening production facilities in Russia.

[Hispo]

Ruble has considerably weakened so far this year. At the beginning of the year, it was trading against the USD at a rate of 1 USD = 60 RUR. Now the exchange rate has gone down to 1 USD = 97 RUR. The fact that the Russian government is allowing this to happen, tells us what are their priorities. When the exchange rate goes down, it benefits the exporters. Those who export grain, oil and gas from Russia are benefitting from the devaluation of the Russian Ruble. At the same time, imports will be down since they have become more expensive.  Perhaps this is what the regime wants.

Not sure why they would try to do so, because even though it could make some sense, their biggest ally is China, a country that lives thanks to the high exportation rate, to the point they need to devaluate the Yuan to keep their competitiveness up to and not lose clients.

Russia cannot aspire to turn into a second China if they do not have the huge income of money China has and if they still have the international sanctions over them. That is a big diffference, China may be one of the biggest foes of USA, but both parts are aware they need each other to keep the economical quo status. USA does not need Russia economically, nor the Western Allies.

For now, it is about a handful of countries in the BRICS, Cuba and others which are willing to do business with the Kremlin. Imo

[jostorres]

Over the past 123 years, the Russian ruble has defaulted three times. What is the probability of a fourth default?

Why are you talking about the Russian ruble in particular? Basically every fiat currency is a more or less a scam.
Do you think that the US dollar, Euro, Chinese Yuan and British pound are better? I don't think so.
I remember some news from 2022, claiming that Russia was in a technical default(unable to pay it's foreign debts due to the western sanctions). Well, this didn't have any obvious impact over the Russian economy. Russia has big currency reserves(some of them are blocked in western banks) and low government debt. I don't think that Russia will go bankrupt anytime soon(and I'm not a fan of Putin).

Yes. He didn't provide more info there which makes us confused if what he was trying to explain. But if I were to guess, it has something to do with the loan? Because he uses the word default there. Maybe fiat is that bad because their value decreases over time but I won't totally called them as a scam because people are still benefiting from them.

We need them to buy our needs except maybe if we are living on Venezuela or on those reported countries where the value of their money is almost zero now. In between Rubble and the US dollar, I think the US dollar is much better and stronger even though there are rumors that they are also in debt and they may not pay.

[Sithara007]

Not sure why they would try to do so, because even though it could make some sense, their biggest ally is China, a country that lives thanks to the high exportation rate, to the point they need to devaluate the Yuan to keep their competitiveness up to and not lose clients.

Russia cannot aspire to turn into a second China if they do not have the huge income of money China has and if they still have the international sanctions over them. That is a big diffference, China may be one of the biggest foes of USA, but both parts are aware they need each other to keep the economical quo status. USA does not need Russia economically, nor the Western Allies.

For now, it is about a handful of countries in the BRICS, Cuba and others which are willing to do business with the Kremlin. Imo

Obviously Russia may not be able to copy the Chinese methodology of devaluing the currency to keep the economy afloat. But they can try it for the short to medium term, i.e until the sanctions are in effect. At this point, they are overdependent on exporting various commodities (such a wheat, crude oil, oil products, potash fertilizer, natural gas, alumina.etc). If the currency gets devalued, then without a doubt the exporters are benefitting from it. But as you mentioned, this strategy will not work for Russia in the long term, unlike the case with China.

[Porfirii]

I recently read a thread about EURO being a scam, and now the Ruble. Well, although the title seems a bit like a clickbait to me, if it works by creating awareness on what fiat is and how the money works, it's worth a read.

In the case of the Russian currency, and the claim that it is backed by nothing, I think that it is not true: in part it is backed by Russian commodities, labor, and yes, political propaganda. So, there are tangible goods and powers that back it, but also psychological ones, like every other fiat currency.

I agree, it might be better if it was backed by gold, like in the old system, but we all know that it doesn't work like this anymore.

[DrBeer]

Not sure why they would try to do so, because even though it could make some sense, their biggest ally is China, a country that lives thanks to the high exportation rate, to the point they need to devaluate the Yuan to keep their competitiveness up to and not lose clients.

Russia cannot aspire to turn into a second China if they do not have the huge income of money China has and if they still have the international sanctions over them. That is a big diffference, China may be one of the biggest foes of USA, but both parts are aware they need each other to keep the economical quo status. USA does not need Russia economically, nor the Western Allies.

For now, it is about a handful of countries in the BRICS, Cuba and others which are willing to do business with the Kremlin. Imo

Obviously Russia may not be able to copy the Chinese methodology of devaluing the currency to keep the economy afloat. But they can try it for the short to medium term, i.e until the sanctions are in effect. At this point, they are overdependent on exporting various commodities (such a wheat, crude oil, oil products, potash fertilizer, natural gas, alumina.etc). If the currency gets devalued, then without a doubt the exporters are benefitting from it. But as you mentioned, this strategy will not work for Russia in the long term, unlike the case with China.

China has implemented a simple, reliable and working scheme. It found "fools" who agreed to "transplant" their economy to the yuan. This move solves two problems:
- export inflation
- supporting the economy
Bonus: there are "yuan slaves" who refused to interact with the international economy, abandoning the dollar. This means that ALL imports (not just Chinese), they will be forced to do through the Chinese yuan ! So the currency of the members of the club "economically unhealthy, to fight against the world evil, dollars and capitalists", was formed
But back to the country of the terrorist. And who needs the ruble and Russian goods ? By the way, can anyone tell us what these Russian goods are?
If China was able to sit down on the yuan not the most intelligent governments, then to sit down someone on the ruble - it must be absolutely complete IDIOTS. But there are no such people on earth. That means that Russia will never be able to repeat the Chinese version of the yuan

[Lida93]

Over the past 123 years, the Russian ruble has defaulted three times. What is the probability of a fourth default?

Next time add more weight to your letters, putting up one line sentence take quality out of the idea behind your post.

For the Russia ruble in as much as the country still stands there would be usage of the currency by their citizens as a country currency is part of a country's identity. Another default could only mean more investors departing away from the country which would have a torn on the country economy. The default of June 2022 is as a result of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia for it's invasion of Ukraine which has shut down payment routes with these sanctions getting tougher as time continues to pass.
My most concern is to see that these issues that led to the war been settled and things returning to normalcy with people having their normal lives back on both sides.

[Bushdark]

Over the past 123 years, the Russian ruble has defaulted three times. What is the probability of a fourth default?

Next time add more weight to your letters, putting up one line sentence take quality out of the idea behind your post.

For the Russia ruble in as much as the country still stands there would be usage of the currency by their citizens as a country currency is part of a country's identity. Another default could only mean more investors departing away from the country which would have a torn on the country economy. The default of June 2022 is as a result of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia for it's invasion of Ukraine which has shut down payment routes with these sanctions getting tougher as time continues to pass.
My most concern is to see that these issues that led to the war been settled and things returning to normalcy with people having their normal lives back on both sides.

Russia is one strong country that I know that had been trying her best to send there natural resources to part of the world for general circulation. I think op lack understanding and has no substantial explanation to back what he claimed. Even with so many sanction against Russia, Putin is still trying his best to make the Russian currency to meet up with it demands. Even though Russia is still in war with Ukraine, they are still maintaining the economy to a level where it would have fallen if Russia does not have what it takes repel any attack against them.

[DrBeer]

I recently read a thread about EURO being a scam, and now the Ruble. Well, although the title seems a bit like a clickbait to me, if it works by creating awareness on what fiat is and how the money works, it's worth a read.

In the case of the Russian currency, and the claim that it is backed by nothing, I think that it is not true: in part it is backed by Russian commodities, labor, and yes, political propaganda. So, there are tangible goods and powers that back it, but also psychological ones, like every other fiat currency.

I agree, it might be better if it was backed by gold, like in the old system, but we all know that it doesn't work like this anymore.

And please tell me about words like
- "Russian goods" and "Russian labor"?
I don't know Russian goods Can you list what you have at home and in your office is of Russian production ?
And it would be very interesting to hear about clarification of what is "Russian labor force" ? I know that in very many areas - these are guest workers from the southern republics bordering Russia.
You probably mean "high quality, labor force that creates high added value of Russian goods" ? But this is related to the first question, and has no answer

[Hispo]

Not sure why they would try to do so, because even though it could make some sense, their biggest ally is China, a country that lives thanks to the high exportation rate, to the point they need to devaluate the Yuan to keep their competitiveness up to and not lose clients.

Russia cannot aspire to turn into a second China if they do not have the huge income of money China has and if they still have the international sanctions over them. That is a big diffference, China may be one of the biggest foes of USA, but both parts are aware they need each other to keep the economical quo status. USA does not need Russia economically, nor the Western Allies.

For now, it is about a handful of countries in the BRICS, Cuba and others which are willing to do business with the Kremlin. Imo

Obviously Russia may not be able to copy the Chinese methodology of devaluing the currency to keep the economy afloat. But they can try it for the short to medium term, i.e until the sanctions are in effect. At this point, they are overdependent on exporting various commodities (such a wheat, crude oil, oil products, potash fertilizer, natural gas, alumina.etc). If the currency gets devalued, then without a doubt the exporters are benefitting from it. But as you mentioned, this strategy will not work for Russia in the long term, unlike the case with China.

It could work in the short and mid term, as long as there are country that are not aligned or keep a neutral standing about the war of Ukraine, those are the most intereses ones in adquiring cheap energy by doing business with the Kremlin. In general, I see Russia as a provider of raw natural resources, because as far as I know, the exportation of refined goods is mostly dominated by China and India, at least in the Asian continent.

If Russia was not blessed with such huge reserves of gas, oil and ores, it would be having even a worse time rn.

[o48o]

-cut-
But the EU's economy is not much better, if not worse, than Russia's. If the ruble is a scam, then all currencies in this world are government sponsored scam schemes.

Hold on. Can you elaborate on where you get your data from. Let's start from the fact that EU has actual trading partners from developed countries and get supplies shipped without any problems. While Russia is being sanctioned by majority of civilized world. So do you really think they are that self sufficient. They weren't doing that well before the war.

My ex who lived there used to talk to me about the little differences. This was long before the war, and still after Soviet union became Russia. One thing that stuck to my mind was corruption, even back then. People who live whole lives in corrupted countries, have hard time believing that something actually works in elsewhere. Like government actually fixes infra that's broken, very efficiently and fast. And no one is taking bribes.

Here's some data about economy. Can you point out how and where we are doing worse?

https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/key-facts-and-figures/economy_en
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget_en

[DrBeer]

Over the past 123 years, the Russian ruble has defaulted three times. What is the probability of a fourth default?

He who don't know, don't talk. People need to separate politics and sentiments from reality. Anyone that have been following politics since the beginning of the war knows what is going on, Russia has been sanctioned severely which resulted into the default you are referring to, and they are unable to service their debt, but they are doing better than it is being reported in the media because the media wants you to think along their own talking point. Russia is doing better than some of these European countries if you do your home work well, but it wasn't publicized.

The war is still ongoing, and I see that the Russians are still living very well, but if you read the news from the Western press, it is quite the opposite. Just like a few months ago, the US and EU media reported that the Russian military had exhausted its arsenal and could not prolong the war any longer. But so far, the US, Nato, and Ukraine have been unable to stop Russia, let alone make them fail badly.

To be fair, the Russian economy is not immune to the impact of those heavy sanctions. But the EU's economy is not much better, if not worse, than Russia's. If the ruble is a scam, then all currencies in this world are government sponsored scam schemes.

I read such answers and I have a strange feeling that I am back in the USSR in the 80's, where from all sockets there was "the West is on the verge of collapse, the Soviet economy is prospering, the West envies us", etc. propaganda nonsense, the purpose of which is self-indulgence and an attempt to distract from the gray reality and hopelessness in the USSR. Or I begin to believe in the existence of multiverse, where there is the same planet, the same people, but where Russia is doing well and the EU is "rotting"

Regarding the statement "several months ago, the US and EU media reported that the Russian military had exhausted its arsenal and could no longer continue the war" - could you provide a resource where you read this ?
There are still resources, no one has denied it, but their number has greatly decreased, and you have been observing for the last 9 months:
- "second army of the world" for 10 months takes 1 city of 40 sq km. Destroying there a huge amount of HIS equipment and HIS manpower.
- The Minister of Defense and other messengers from the Kremlin are begging all their rogue friends (Iran, North Korea,...) for shells, armaments....
- Any offensive actions of the terrorist army actually stand, after the shameful rout in the north and south of Ukraine...

Or did you think - since the stockpiles decreased - they all realized their hands and ended the war ?  No, Putin will be to the last Russian to try to realize his morbid fantasy of becoming tsar of "Muscovy and annex new lands"....

[Hispo]

Not sure why they would try to do so, because even though it could make some sense, their biggest ally is China, a country that lives thanks to the high exportation rate, to the point they need to devaluate the Yuan to keep their competitiveness up to and not lose clients.

Russia cannot aspire to turn into a second China if they do not have the huge income of money China has and if they still have the international sanctions over them. That is a big diffference, China may be one of the biggest foes of USA, but both parts are aware they need each other to keep the economical quo status. USA does not need Russia economically, nor the Western Allies.

For now, it is about a handful of countries in the BRICS, Cuba and others which are willing to do business with the Kremlin. Imo

Obviously Russia may not be able to copy the Chinese methodology of devaluing the currency to keep the economy afloat. But they can try it for the short to medium term, i.e until the sanctions are in effect. At this point, they are overdependent on exporting various commodities (such a wheat, crude oil, oil products, potash fertilizer, natural gas, alumina.etc). If the currency gets devalued, then without a doubt the exporters are benefitting from it. But as you mentioned, this strategy will not work for Russia in the long term, unlike the case with China.

China has implemented a simple, reliable and working scheme. It found "fools" who agreed to "transplant" their economy to the yuan. This move solves two problems:
- export inflation
- supporting the economy
Bonus: there are "yuan slaves" who refused to interact with the international economy, abandoning the dollar. This means that ALL imports (not just Chinese), they will be forced to do through the Chinese yuan ! So the currency of the members of the club "economically unhealthy, to fight against the world evil, dollars and capitalists", was formed
But back to the country of the terrorist. And who needs the ruble and Russian goods ? By the way, can anyone tell us what these Russian goods are?
If China was able to sit down on the yuan not the most intelligent governments, then to sit down someone on the ruble - it must be absolutely complete IDIOTS. But there are no such people on earth. That means that Russia will never be able to repeat the Chinese version of the yuan

Russian good do not have much market, that is true, if we talk in comparison of Chinese good and Those from America.

They are mainly exporters of raw materials and energy. By the way, I know it is rather off topic, but some days ago I was reading on the dangers of Asbestos to the human health, and realized that Russia is one of the biggest producers and exporters of it, even to this day when it is basically a banned building material.

Anyways, Perhaps someday we will see Russia living within an actual democracy I instead whatever Putin is trying to accomplish.

[user210822]

Anyways, Perhaps someday we will see Russia living within an actual democracy I instead whatever Putin is trying to accomplish.

It won't take much of foreseen power to tell: future generations in the Russia will suffer from our week will and blind follow towards propaganda narratives in a few decades from present. Just try to imagine all those people, unborn yet, who will continue to repay debts we bound on them! What about the topic: it always has been a toy played by Kremlin habitat with no economical strength whatsoever!

[Joshapat]

I think the money condition also occurs with other currencies, it's only natural that there is a plan that the ruble will make gold for support so that the ruble user's trust continues to increase, and in my opinion this can be the right solution, if this happens of course it will make more and more users who don't hesitate to save the Ruble.

[YUriy1991]

Over the past 123 years, the Russian ruble has defaulted three times. What is the probability of a fourth default?

It's like a "joke" to me. All countries have debts and Russia's foreign debt is indeed large, but Russia also has much larger foreign exchange reserves. The only problem was the conflict between Russia and Ukraine which saw the United States and its allies freeze foreign exchange reserves so that the Russian Central Bank could not access them. Well, these sanctions have made Russia a little constrained in paying its debts and giving the impression of default.

So, OP, please be wise, we shouldn't judge right away that Russian ruble is a scam, but, it's better to check if it is true or not and then plug it in.

[STT]

They have zero reserves under good governance at present, the country could be wealthy with so many assets & an increasingly larger usable land mass just waiting to be used properly but its deliberately self sabotaged to the benefit of some over the many.
  The idea is Russian should pay out of its reserves for its ongoing destruction of another country while having zero requirement to attack a sovereign nation.  They think they have enough excuse to kill and destroy based on history when there isnt any way to restore Russia back to its prior empire and no other country has that aspiration to take over its neighbors by force and death except perhaps China.       It would be a scam to believe any of Russia's recent actions are profitable to itself or anyone else, they are their own greatest enemy at present and so the prospects of anything or anyone connected to that failure are in question every day it continues including the currency.

[serveria.com]

Over the past 123 years, the Russian ruble has defaulted three times. What is the probability of a fourth default?

It's like a "joke" to me. All countries have debts and Russia's foreign debt is indeed large, but Russia also has much larger foreign exchange reserves. The only problem was the conflict between Russia and Ukraine which saw the United States and its allies freeze foreign exchange reserves so that the Russian Central Bank could not access them. Well, these sanctions have made Russia a little constrained in paying its debts and giving the impression of default.

So, OP, please be wise, we shouldn't judge right away that Russian ruble is a scam, but, it's better to check if it is true or not and then plug it in.

Yes, good point. With currency reserves frozen and Russia being artificially prevented from receiving USD and EUR in export deals and processing transactions how can they pay the debt? 

[Synchronice]

Over the past 123 years, the Russian ruble has defaulted three times. What is the probability of a fourth default?

If there were three defaults, there will be fourth default. Ruble itself is not a scam but people behind it are the ones who make it scam, Ruble alone is a piece of paper. So, if the government is good, it won't be a scam but if they are bad or underqualified, then Ruble may become scam.
Overall, absolutely every currency is a scam tool because you pay taxes and on top of that, you pay hidden taxes via inflation. You pay two taxes. While you know the rate of income tax already, you don't know the rate of inflation beforehand, it's a bad surprise.

[DrBeer]

Not sure why they would try to do so, because even though it could make some sense, their biggest ally is China, a country that lives thanks to the high exportation rate, to the point they need to devaluate the Yuan to keep their competitiveness up to and not lose clients.

Russia cannot aspire to turn into a second China if they do not have the huge income of money China has and if they still have the international sanctions over them. That is a big diffference, China may be one of the biggest foes of USA, but both parts are aware they need each other to keep the economical quo status. USA does not need Russia economically, nor the Western Allies.

For now, it is about a handful of countries in the BRICS, Cuba and others which are willing to do business with the Kremlin. Imo

Obviously Russia may not be able to copy the Chinese methodology of devaluing the currency to keep the economy afloat. But they can try it for the short to medium term, i.e until the sanctions are in effect. At this point, they are overdependent on exporting various commodities (such a wheat, crude oil, oil products, potash fertilizer, natural gas, alumina.etc). If the currency gets devalued, then without a doubt the exporters are benefitting from it. But as you mentioned, this strategy will not work for Russia in the long term, unlike the case with China.

China has implemented a simple, reliable and working scheme. It found "fools" who agreed to "transplant" their economy to the yuan. This move solves two problems:
- export inflation
- supporting the economy
Bonus: there are "yuan slaves" who refused to interact with the international economy, abandoning the dollar. This means that ALL imports (not just Chinese), they will be forced to do through the Chinese yuan ! So the currency of the members of the club "economically unhealthy, to fight against the world evil, dollars and capitalists", was formed
But back to the country of the terrorist. And who needs the ruble and Russian goods ? By the way, can anyone tell us what these Russian goods are?
If China was able to sit down on the yuan not the most intelligent governments, then to sit down someone on the ruble - it must be absolutely complete IDIOTS. But there are no such people on earth. That means that Russia will never be able to repeat the Chinese version of the yuan

Russian good do not have much market, that is true, if we talk in comparison of Chinese good and Those from America.

They are mainly exporters of raw materials and energy. By the way, I know it is rather off topic, but some days ago I was reading on the dangers of Asbestos to the human health, and realized that Russia is one of the biggest producers and exporters of it, even to this day when it is basically a banned building material.

Anyways, Perhaps someday we will see Russia living within an actual democracy I instead whatever Putin is trying to accomplish.

The problem is not that there are fewer "Russian" goods than Chinese. In fact, there are none at all
What can we say about a country that supposedly has large raw material reserves, but.... CAN'T PRODUCE NAILS !
The total majority of goods are either stolen or copied from other producers, and the biggest problem is that then it is produced by absolutely backward technologies and wildly low quality !

And yes, you are right to notice - in russia they don't care about ecology and safety ! The goal is extremely simple - to make anything, as long as it costs pennies, and sell it to everyone with a huge markup, because there is no other alternative and will not be ! Yes, in Russia they still use asbestos panels in the construction of residential houses, and nobody cares about it. The Russian state does not need pensioners, so the short life span of citizens (on the verge of retirement age) is profitable for the state - it is very expensive to keep tens of millions of useless residents !