Could Satoshi have known?

[pooya87]

BTC to some is just money, but to others, it is a valuable asset worth investing and HODLing for a duration

These two ideas are not contradictory though. As a matter of fact, in order for bitcoin to be money it has to be store of value as I pointed out earlier. This means bitcoin has to be an investment too if it wants to be money.

[Blitzboy]

Change is inevitable. The truth is this. But to say Satoshi knew Bitcoin's volatility? Quite the stretch. Satoshi wanted a peer-to-peer system for transactions, not speculation. Yet here we are, treating Bitcoin more like a casino chip than a medium of exchange. Satoshi designed a method to defy central banks and intermediaries. Did he expect avarice and speculation to overshadow his creation's purpose? Perhaps he underestimated people's need for rapid cash. Satoshi may have anticipated some currency appreciation, but to say he anticipated this amount of frenzied speculation is conspiratorial. Satoshi would have noticed Bitcoin's usage alter. Whether he accepts is unknown

[Mpamaegbu]

Instead of focusing on Bitcoin use cases, we are more interested in making money from them.

It's not that we don't concentrate on the use cases of Bitcoin too, it's just that what seems to be driving its value and price isn't its usecases. It's its speculative part – the asset part of Bitcoin. People will naturally go where the honey (money) is and that's why people see or evaluate Bitcoin as something they can invest in and get a nice ROI.

So Satoshi knew what he was doing and i am not sure he created bitcoin for only peer to peer purposes only despite he mission was to make payment system easily as possible but he also knew that in time to come people could finds more valuable aspect of bitcoin.

Yes, he knew what he was doing while he was creating it but didn't know to what extent that creation of his would go. Again, basically, Satoshi created Bitcoin for P2P; not for asset speculation which Bitcoin has more become of. We can argue this for all we want but that's what it's now.

~

The real question is: what difference would that have made if he knew that? Could he have designed bitcoin in a different way to prevent volatility? The answer is no, it would not have made any difference and the design would have been the same. So knowing or not knowing it is not important.

I think it will have made a difference if Satoshi knew Bitcoin would take this turn and drawn this level of unbelievable attention. I'm sure he would've tweaked the supply to more than what it's, among other things.

[aoluain]

Ah Satoshi was smarter than the average bear but when it comes to predicting the future
its difficult, I think Satoshi did what he could to make sure Bitcoin was set on the course he
envisioned.

Given the fact that Bitcoin is deflationary and decentralised with superior security
it is kind of predictable that it would be volatile.

Knowing if it would be adopted further into the future after he left the space is another thing.

I think Satoshi was satisfied by the end of 2010 that enough people were involved and
active to carry it into the future. I think while being able to create a useable product in Bitcoin,
bring it into the public domain and nurture it for a year at that stage confidence was high
that it could be left to grow into the future.

[bittraffic]

The timing of the BTC launch means he knows how the money works and knows economics. I think he already sees the future of what could happen to BTC and to the fiat system that's crumbling.

So he knows BTC will have a higher value which means people will also be investing and selling. And he designed BTC to have halving where there will be scarcity in the long run. He may even know there will be a flood of altcoins because blockchain was released as opensource.

[kryptqnick]

As quotes of Satoshi's texts in this thread show, this person was clearly aware of the basic economics, and did talk about assets, so I suppose it's reasonable to say that Satoshi possibly considered that Bitcoin might become a form of investment. But what Satoshi wanted to give people and successfully gave was an alternative to fiat and banks, a form of money that's truly independent of any authorities, can be used without intermediaries, and is made by people for the people. Whether it would become volatile, be used for trading or investing was kind of beyond the point.

[PX-Z]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily.

Everything fluctuates, and he did expect something like it. The thing could people from the past that could never imagine even Satoshi is bitcoin having thousands of dollars of value, that it become more in investment type than his original way and thoughts as its's a p2p.
That even in a small change of its value everything is affected.

[Smartvirus]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

To infer into what Satoshi Nakamoto is thinking or could have thought at the genesis age of bitcoin would be to ask the shapeless or formless figure.
You’ve already said it yourself, Satoshi Nakamoto had a long insight and the bitcoin innovation and all that is happening now could have been considered. I mean, economics and statistics has been around and having to create a limited 21million bitcoin for a world population without putting a price mark on it,,,
Satoshi Nakamoto has got to understand that the innovation would choose the way it would go until it attains some worth price that could serve a world population and even then, the volatile nature, the fluctuation in its price would not be totally vanquished.

Investors might do as they please but, this isn’t any disappointment and people are out there using bitcoin as they please.

[mk4]

Change is inevitable. The truth is this. But to say Satoshi knew Bitcoin's volatility? Quite the stretch. Satoshi wanted a peer-to-peer system for transactions, not speculation. Yet here we are, treating Bitcoin more like a casino chip than a medium of exchange. Satoshi designed a method to defy central banks and intermediaries. Did he expect avarice and speculation to overshadow his creation's purpose? Perhaps he underestimated people's need for rapid cash. Satoshi may have anticipated some currency appreciation, but to say he anticipated this amount of frenzied speculation is conspiratorial. Satoshi would have noticed Bitcoin's usage alter. Whether he accepts is unknown

If Satoshi was smart enough — in which I totally assume that he is for obvious reasons, then he for sure knows that for bitcoin to reach from virtually worth nothing to what it's worth today, it's going to require a lot of volatility and speculation. There's really no other way around it. An asset can't go from $0 to what its worth today in a straight line.

[kingvirtus09]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

To begin with, no one knows for certain whether Satoshi Nakamoto is a genuine person or if that moniker was made up by someone. Back to your question: He may not have expected it, but he stated that Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer digital cash system.

What makes you think he said that? The reason for this is that he regards Bitcoin as primarily a mode of payment rather than an investment asset. In the whitepaper, he also mentioned that Bitcoin has a scarcity quality that makes it more appealing as an investment asset. Despite the fact that Bitcoin is still evolving,

[YUriy1991]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily.

Everything fluctuates, and he did expect something like it. The thing could people from the past that could never imagine even Satoshi is bitcoin having thousands of dollars of value, that it become more in investment type than his original way and thoughts as its's a p2p.
That even in a small change of its value everything is affected.

Until now, Bitcoin trading is very speculative and volatile and therefore there is a lot of Bitcoin price volatility in the market so people are still afraid to get involved in trading for several classic reasons including the continued decline and other problems.

I think it's simple, using Bitcoin it's easy to buy and sell once you have a wallet you trust and all we need is to use different trading strategies and we'll make a profit once all this market madness is over.

[Litzki1990]

Satoshi created Bitcoin with a lot of potential and he believed that his coin would be very popular in the world but he probably did not imagine it to be so popular. Some countries are accepting Bitcoin as their legal tender and many people are now using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Every year the popularity of Bitcoin is increasing as compared to every year and the number of Bitcoin users is also increasing steadily. People are now finding it safer to store their money through Bitcoin instead of keeping it in the bank. Satoshi might be more than happy to see a coin he created become so successful.

[yhiaali3]

Such a possibility may have crossed Satoshi's mind, but even if it were true, that would not have prevented him from moving forward with his life's project.

Since he was certain of the success of the project, this thought most likely crossed his mind, but perhaps he thought that after a long time people would realize the reality of Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer payment method and start using Bitcoin in the right way.

In any case, if Satoshi were still alive now, he would not be happy with these price fluctuations and the deviation from Bitcoin’s path to a means of investment and speculation, but at least he would be happy because of the great popularity of Bitcoin and also that Bitcoin has changed the lives of many people for the better.

[mindrust]

Satoshi predicted all of this probably. What happened to bitcoin isn’t a surprise. When there is money to be made, it will be made, till it can’t be made. People saw a promising project with a small market cap (that’s btc) and hoarded it just like hoarding a penny stock with a promising future. People didn’t do anything wrong since they made lots of money doing it. On the other hand there are lots of people that use bitcoin to sell and buy stuff too. Not everybody is an investor or a trader. One can use bitcoin without having to invest in it. All you need is a btc wallet.

[Hamza2424]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

A lot of theories and scenarios can be imagined, some extraordinary fantasy movie lovers create more supential scenes by asking the questions over and over again. The point to be noted is that Stoshi was an Unknown entity and he will be, there are a lot of fakes to his we cant trust because he didn't reveal himself to own the credits so why now?

Yet, some concerns may naturally arise. One might speculate that if Satoshi had revealed his identity, the trajectory of Bitcoin might have diverged significantly. It's possible that Bitcoin could have been dismissed as another Ponzi scheme, attributed to Satoshi, and so forth. We can ponder these hypothetical scenarios endlessly, but in truth, it doesn't truly matter, my friend.

The question to ask is this: Are you content with Bitcoin as it stands today? If the answer is yes, then cease your "What If?" inquiries. Why dwell on the past, and how it could have unfolded differently?

[Solosanz]

Satoshi said this in 2010.

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

So he kind of predicted what would be the outcome of Bitcoin if people accepted it but he may not expected that more people would be accumulating Bitcoins for investment purposes rather than using to for making payments and cutting the centralized entity as the middlemen. But Bitcoin is becoming inevitable year by year so this is good and going in the way that he would have expected.

Despite people are accumulating Bitcoin for investment purpose, but currently Bitcoin's trading volume 24 hours is $6,678,602,678, it's really big.

To be more fair, Satoshi only mention about the volume, not the price.

If you still think Bitcoin must be used as a currency because you read in Bitcoin's whitepaper, Satoshi even have thought Bitcoin can be used as a commodity.

"Bitcoin [is] more like a collectible or commodity.” - Satoshi

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Satoshi may have designed Bitcoin for the purpose of P2P transactions—the ability of individuals who accept it to be in total control of their finances rather than having it in the hands of financial experts (a third party). He might not have seen Bitcoin become very volatile like it is now, but I think it still matters that the technology has not failed and many people are still using it for P2P transactions. I keep making payments with Bitcoin most of the time for business transactions and some personal needs, as do a lot of other people in different countries. So, it's not really as if everyone is just investing in Bitcoin for profit; there are still people using it for business.

[posi]

So, it's not really as if everyone is just investing in Bitcoin for profit; there are still people using it for business.

That's right, although most people use bitcoin as an investment vehicle to make profits, there are still a few people who still only consider bitcoin as a currency, a payment method. But as I see it, even investors like us can use bitcoin as a payment method. That's the versatility that bitcoin brings to us, why don't we take advantage of that? I think it doesn't matter what bitcoin is, the point is that as long as it retains its decentralized nature, everyone can use it according to their purposes. Don't be too rigid and just use it as a currency or an investment.

[so98nn]

This is definitely tricky shot for Satoshi and he took it decade ago and as we can see either way it is success for him. The entire worlds government now consider bitcoin whenever there are financial budget getting launched. They have to plot an entire guidelines for bitcoin usage and thus making it one of the prime form of instrument. Now we may discuss pages and pages about whether Bitcoin is an asset, currency or just way to hold and profit but it has proved itself to be growing market. No wonder we have seen bitcoin going all the way up to 60k in the past. That’s crazy denomination for something that was created just yesterday! I think if Satoshi is out there then they already found out the answer about their creation and happy about it.

[MFahad]

he knew the fact because if he created something then surely he will have knowledge about it therefore he knew about its volatile nature but that time it was not uses as an investment purpose only but now people are more focused on bitcoin with the aim of investment.

Now because of this volatility people prefer bitcoin as both conditions are full of advantages for bitcoin investors. Bitcoin was originated as a currency but your will be familiar that now a days people use bitcoin more as an investment method in contrast as a currency.