Oscar Awards and movies bets and discussions

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I watched The Holdovers through an illegal streaming website hehehe. It was also a bad copy, however, I know if I watch it with a good copy once available, this movie might be a feeling that is something similar to Coda. I would not be shocked if much of the academy members voted for this and won for best picture.

Also, Paul Giamatti was very good for this movie but it might not win him an Oscar. I am curious on Willem Dafoe's performance. He might be best supporting actor hehe.

[STT]

Oppenheimer odds are too short to want to bet at this early stage.  Is it impossible now for a film to be released in the last weeks of the year and qualify, I wasnt aware it would end this early or did I misread that schedule that way.
My outsider bet would be Barbie at 17x     It would be a surprise for sure but at 17x odds you have to a take a long chance it might be the film that some thought was most qualified.  Im not decided on this idea but alot of people said it had a bigger frame to it and that sounds like it could be an oscar deal.  I dont know, Im just mentioning I will think about it.

[arimamib]

The slapping of Chris Rock occurred during 2022 Oscar ceremomies. The Academy of motion pictures arts and science asked Chris Rock to be the host again for the 2023 ceremonies which I speculate that the slapping could be used for marketing hehe. However, Chris Rock did not accept. He said it would be something similar to returning to a crime scene hehehehe.

Rock's decision is understandable. The slapping incident was a traumatic experience for him, and it is likely that he is still processing it. Returning to the Oscars could potentially trigger anxiety or other negative emotions.

Maybe Rock thinks of being there will give Smith any more attention. By declining the offer to host the Oscars, Rock is taking away the opportunity for Smith to make another apology or to try to justify his actions. This could be a way for Rock to regain control of the narrative and to ensure that the focus is on his work, not on the slapping incident.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. I watched The Holdovers through an illegal streaming website hehehe.

Ah that explains it. I gave up on watching cam rips long time ago as I don't wanna ruin my expeirence by watching something I might like in shitty audio and video quality. Out of curiosity, can you please send me link of that streaming website via PM as I am curious how bad copy is, as I didn't find it on streaming websites I sometimes use.

It was also a bad copy, however, I know if I watch it with a good copy once available, this movie might be a feeling that is something similar to Coda.

I don't understand this part, why would it make it feel more like CODA (which was imho one of the weakest Best Picture winners in recent years).

[Kakmakr]

Well, in my opinion with all the conflict going on in the world, we need a movie like "Oppenheimer" to get the Best Picture award. It sends out a strong message that Nuclear War are stupid and should be avoided at all cost.

We have "Rocket Man" in North Korea with an itchy finger, but this movie will most probably never be seen there.. because they see this as western propaganda.  

We currently have nations in conflict with the ability to use nuclear weapons, so highlighting the absolute craziness to use weapons of mass destruction... are absolutely necessary now.

[Rikafip]

Well, in my opinion with all the conflict going on in the world, we need a movie like "Oppenheimer" to get the Best Picture award. It sends out a strong message that Nuclear War are stupid and should be avoided at all cost.

Having watched Oppenheimer, I don't think that Nolan sent a strong message at all. I mean, I am a big fan of post apocalyptic/nuclear war films and probably saw vast majority of the important ones ( The War Game, Dead Man's Letters, Threads, Fail Safe, The Day After, When The Winds Blow, Special Bulletin, Testament etc) and I didn't feel even remotely as bad (actually, not bad/worried at all) after watching Oppenheimer, like I did with the movies I just mentioned and my guess is neither are others.

With that being said, Oscar awards will again be relevant and regain its popularity when they stop sending messages and actually start awarding the best movies.

[bbc.reporter]

It was also a bad copy, however, I know if I watch it with a good copy once available, this movie might be a feeling that is something similar to Coda.

I don't understand this part, why would it make it feel more like CODA (which was imho one of the weakest Best Picture winners in recent years).

It makes it feel very much similar to CODA where if The Holdovers is nominated, it might be the weakest nominated movie, however, it might get the heart of the voters in the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. Also, if it will not be nominated for best picture, I am quite certain this will be nominated for best original screenplay.

However, it can be argued that CODA has a message to be more aware on people with hearing disabilities. This might be the agenda and it might be why it won the votes. The Holdovers does not have this type of strong message for viewers.

@Kakmakr. I had a similar argument, however, the voters of the academy have their own agenda and have their own storylines to spread instead of the storylines we see in mainstream news media.

[Rikafip]

It makes it feel very much similar to CODA where if The Holdovers is nominated, it might be the weakest nominated movie, however, it might get the heart of the voters in the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences.

What I meant to ask is why would it feel more like CODA if you watched the better copy? You mean it would be even a better movie?

However, it can be argued that CODA has a message to be more aware on people with hearing disabilities. This might be the agenda and it might be why it won the votes.

That, and another big factor for the win is having the lead female character. Regarding hearing disability theme, for me personally much better was Sound of Metal made one year before CODA that was Oscar nominated and managed to win 2 in the end.

By the way, thanks for the link. I just checked the website and The Holdovers picture quality is just horrendous, reminded me of first cam rips I saw back in the 90s (if I remember correctly first cam rip for me was Independence Day as I couldn't wait for it to come to cinema in my country.)

[bbc.reporter]

It makes it feel very much similar to CODA where if The Holdovers is nominated, it might be the weakest nominated movie, however, it might get the heart of the voters in the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences.

What I meant to ask is why would it feel more like CODA if you watched the better copy? You mean it would be even a better movie?

It might be because the feeling I had while watching the bad copy might not be as good if I watched a good copy where I can see what the director wanted me to see, hear what he wanted me to hear and feel what he wanted me to feel. We might be losing some of this when we watch movies with a bad copy.

In any case, I will watch it again if a good copy is available and I can be quite certain that the Holdovers will be more beautiful, more funny and I will get the real feeling of what this movie was created for. Best original screenplay hhehehehe!

[FanEagle]

The biggest joke of the century is that Barbie is actually nominated? I am not saying that it didn't try to have some sort of meaning, there isn't really just some dancing and chat, there is this main idea behind it as well, and that's understandable, the whole "Barbie created terrible expectations from woman" type of situation and I agree, BUT when we are talking about a movie about potentially what caused the death of all humans, I would say the idea behind Barbie can't ever be taken seriously. And... it's Barbie lol, seriously? Barbie? Oppenheimer will win this one without even trouble, it is not going to be even a discussion about it, there isn't even any movie that could be alternative to it.

Other categories are fine too, but Cillian Murphy MUST win the best actor, that dude played the role perfectly, I wouldn't say a single line was out of order, he played it so amazingly on every single scene he was in, he definitely deserves it no question.

[Saint-loup]

This weekend I watched the Killers The Flower Moon, the Past Lives and the Holdovers.

On Killers of The Flower Moon, I was not very happy watching this movie. It gave me a similar bored feeling as Oppenheimer and yes I watched it with subtitles.

You shouldn't say that about Killers of the Flower Moon, this movie is very likely to win at least one or two Oscars IMO because it owns very well reputed and awarded -almost living legendary- actors Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro and director Martin Scorsese. But mostly because it doesn't try to be commercial unlike Oppenheimer, with such a duration(3h30) and such a subject(a massive scam and murder of Indians) Scorsese knew it won't be a great business success. So I think he made it for the glory. And I bet Lily Gladstone (the squaw) will win the best actress award at least.

[Rikafip]

It might be because the feeling I had while watching the bad copy might not be as good if I watched a good copy where I can see what the director wanted me to see, hear what he wanted me to hear and feel what he wanted me to feel. We might be losing some of this when we watch movies with a bad copy.

Well, of course that watching such a bad copy can affect your perception of the movie and for exactly that reason I am not watching them anymore.

The biggest joke of the century is that Barbie is actually nominated?

Oscar nominations are not released yet, but based on what we've seen in previous years, Barbie will most likely end up getting nominated in (the most important) Best Picture category. It made shit load of money ($1.4 billion+) and critics generally liked it meaning both criteria is met. Best Picture nomination lost its value since they increased the number of nominated movies from 5 to 10 so now we get all sorts of mediocre movies nominated.

You shouldn't say that about Killers of the Flower Moon, this movie is very likely to win at least one or two Oscars IMO because it owns very well reputed and awarded -almost living legendary- actors

All that is completely irrelevant when it comes to personal opinion about a movie. Everything Everywhere All At Once won 7 Oscars last year while I coulnd't even finsih the movie and I probably won't give it another try.

[o48o]

The biggest joke of the century is that Barbie is actually nominated? I am not saying that it didn't try to have some sort of meaning, there isn't really just some dancing and chat, there is this main idea behind it as well, and that's understandable, the whole "Barbie created terrible expectations from woman" type of situation and I agree, BUT when we are talking about a movie about potentially what caused the death of all humans, I would say the idea behind Barbie can't ever be taken seriously. And... it's Barbie lol, seriously? Barbie? Oppenheimer will win this one without even trouble, it is not going to be even a discussion about it, there isn't even any movie that could be alternative to it.

Other categories are fine too, but Cillian Murphy MUST win the best actor, that dude played the role perfectly, I wouldn't say a single line was out of order, he played it so amazingly on every single scene he was in, he definitely deserves it no question.

I am not sure why should movies be comparable in this way. Why couldn't movies with different genres enter into the game? Imho depth is just a matter of perspective and we need all kinds of movies. The idea that movies should all be heavy to process, artsy, or deal with concepts like oppenheimer in order to be taken seriously, would leave us with pretty bleak cinema.

Lack of depth in a movies is in eye of beholder as you can see lots of levels in different movies. They don't all need to be sad or direct about something that happened. It's not about who makes the saddest and most realistic movie should win. And it's not like Barbie went with the easiest route. It went all in bashing the very firm it was advertising. Backgrounds weren't digitally added. But moved by hand. Music was actually well done considering it was mostly musical. Imho it was bold and original, and left Bechdel test seem to be like a bad memory in movie history.

Sometimes being funny is the sugar we need to get the medicine in while being all preachy about it.

Edit: This might make it more difficult for judges to justify "best leading role" or something like that, but i assume it makes it more predictable for outcomes, as many people will see "serious" and sad roles with genocide ect, as winners. Which they often are. But there are other areas to judge, which makes the whole event more interesting and fair

[STT]

Its not a joke though, I agree the 5 second view is what the hell is Barbie even in the line up for.  Oscars, film royalty the greatest actors in their generation etc. so why would you do this but comedies can make the Oscars all sorts of film types, funny animated films anything.  I think the main deciding factor and swing to votes is usually a theme of some kind, if you can watch Barbie and find some message and believe thats what the Oscars might vote on and it might win then you have a bet; its 17x odds so we arent requiring much down to win a fair amount it just has to have some slight chance there.   
  Its outside bet for sure but I like the long shot bets, thats just me and Ive yet to decide for sure just yet.  I havent even watched them all yet, thats probably most important.

[Saint-loup]

All that is completely irrelevant when it comes to personal opinion about a movie. Everything Everywhere All At Once won 7 Oscars last year while I coulnd't even finsih the movie and I probably won't give it another try.

Yes I agree with you but in his initial message bbc.reporter was talking about movies he watched likely to receive Oscars according to him. And from what I understood he isn't thinking that Killers of the Flower Moon is good enough to receive one main Oscar. I think the opposite, for me this movie is "cinematically" better than Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer is not surprising, and looks too much like other movies such as The Imitation Game, I believe.

[Rikafip]

Yes I agree with you but in his initial message bbc.reporter was talking about movies he watched likely to receive Oscars according to him.

From what I see, he was merely sharing his personal opinion on those 3 movies, and not saying that its not good enough to win any Oscars.

And from what I understood he isn't thinking that Killers of the Flower Moon is good enough to receive one main Oscar. I think the opposite, for me this movie is "cinematically" better than Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer is not surprising, and looks too much like other movies such as The Imitation Game, I believe.

I have yet to see Killers of the Flower Moon (waiting for a good screener) but I agree about Oppenheimer/Imitation Game as I wasn't imporessed with neither of those and I think that the are both highly overrrated.

[bbc.reporter]

Update on the odds for best picture. We have a new entry in the top 10 and this is the movie The Holdovers. The odds for it is presently placed at 10.00, I reckon it was on 25.00 when I created this thread. I was waiting to watch Poor Things and Anatomy of a Fall before making a speculation bet for the best movie, however, I cannot wait anymore hehehe. I knew I should have done this already on The Holdovers after watching it.

Oppenheimer 2.20
 1.77
Killers of The Flower Moon 3.70
 4.50
Poor Things 6.00

Past Lives 9.00
 10.00
[New Entry] The Holdovers 10.00
Lee 12.00
 13.00
Maestro 12.00
 13.00
Anatomy of A Fall 13.00

The Color Purple 15.00
 14.00
Barbie 17.00
 15.00
The Killer 17.00 15.00

Oppenheimer appears to be behaving very much similar to the Fablemans. Odds became smaller before nominations voting then it went bigger after nominations announcement.

[Rikafip]

Update on the odds for best picture. We have a new entry in the top 10 and this is the movie The Holdovers. The odds for it is presently placed at 10.00, I reckon it was on 25.00 when I created this thread. I was waiting to watch Poor Things and Anatomy of a Fall before making a speculation bet for the best movie, however, I cannot wait anymore hehehe. I knew I should have done this already on The Holdovers after watching it.

I watched The Holdovers yesterday (solid rip is out btw, if yoiu want to watch it again) and It completely lived up to my high expectations, definitely one of the best movies this year (along with Past Lives and Anatomy of A Fall). I still have to watch the few candidates though to decide which one I actually like the most and the next one is Killers of The Flower Moon as quality rip finally showed up.

The Color Purple 15.00
 14.00

What's the point in making a remake of the american movie that isn't even that old and still looks pretty good? Smh...

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I remind you to make your expectations lower for Killers of Flower Moon to enjoy the movie. I made my expectations very high and this only caused disappointment very much similar to Oppenheimer. I watched Oppenheimer again with subtitles. It did not give me the same experience similar to Tenet where I did not like it at first viewing, however, on the second viewing I very much liked it which made me do a third and fourth viewing hehhehehe.

I will next watch Anatomy of a fall this week then Poor Things once available.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. I remind you to make your expectations lower for Killers of Flower Moon to enjoy the movie.

Too late for that.  Few of my good IRL friends already hyped me as they loved the movie (and we have similar taste) so my expectations are already high. But, even witout them its hard not to have high expectations when Scorsese is director and, even though his last movie The Irishman was a big disappointment (imho that mvoie would be great if it was made ~20 years earlier).

I made my expectations very high and this only caused disappointment very much similar to Oppenheimer. I watched Oppenheimer again with subtitles. It did not give me the same experience similar to Tenet where I did not like it at first viewing, however, on the second viewing I very much liked it which made me do a third and fourth viewing hehhehehe.

You watch Oppenheimer 4 times? U crazy lol. I saw it once and probably won't see it ever again.

I will next watch Anatomy of a fall this week then Poor Things once available.

I am curios to hear your opinion on the former as for me its one of the best movies this year.