Oscar Awards and movies bets and discussions

[bbc.reporter]

These are the odds offered by the sportsbooks. These movies, directors and later actresses, actors and other categories added are not yet official from the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. However, if you are a movie expert or a couch potato, you might already know which of these directors and movies has a chance to win hehehe. Share your knowledge!

Important dates.

November 18, 2023 deadline for submission of general categories.
December 18, 2023 preliminary votes and shortlists.
January 11-16, 2024 nominations voting.
January 23, 2024 official nominations announcement.
February 22-27, 2024 final voting
March 10, 2024 ceremony and announcement of winners.

Other important dates.

January 7, 2024, Golden Globe Awards
February 10, 2024, Directors Guild
February 18, 2024, Bafta Awards
February 24, 2024, Screen Actors Guild



Best Picture

Oppenheimer 2.20
 1.77
Killers of The Flower Moon 3.70
 4.50
Poor Things 6.00

Past Lives 9.00
 10.00
[New Entry] The Holdovers 10.00
Lee 12.00
 13.00
Maestro 12.00
 13.00
Anatomy of A Fall 13.00

The Color Purple 15.00
 14.00
The Killer 17.00 15.00

Best Director

Nolan, Christopher 1.50
Scorsese, Martin 3.00
Lanthimos, Yorgos 4.50
Gerwig, Greta 7.00
Glazer, Jonathan 7.50
Song, Celine 8.00
Triet, Justine 13.00
Cooper, Bradley 14.00
Fennell, Emerald 14.00
Fincher, David 17.00

Best Actor

Murphy, Cillian 1.83
Domingo, Colman 3.45
Di Caprio, Leonardo 3.75
Cooper, Bradley 4.00
Keoghan, Barry 9.00
Dafoe, Willem 11.00
Giamatti, Paul 12.00
Kingsley, Ben 13.00
Gosling, Ryan 13.00
Yoo, Teo 15.00

Best Actress

Stone, Emma 2.35
Gladstone, Lily 3.00
Mulligan, Carey 3.50
Bening, Annette 4.00
Barrino, Fantasia 4.25
Huller, Sandra 7.50
Robbie, Margot 8.50
Lee, Greta 10.00
Spaeny, Cailee 12.00
Portman, Natalie 15.00

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[noormcs5]

These are the odds offered by the sportsbooks. These movies, directors and later actresses, actors and other categories added are not yet official from the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. However, if you are a movie expert or a couch potato, you might already know which of these directors and movies has a chance to win hehehe. Share your knowledge!

More important thing, where can we bet on the 2024 Oscars award?
On which sites do you prefer to bet as i don't think the majority of the sports betting site will list these bets.

The most probable date for the Oscar award is 10th March 2024 while the submission date of different categories entries will be somewhere around the middle or end of November this year.

[bbc.reporter]

@noormcs5. Where to bet on the Oscar awards? It is in your signature hehehe. The sportsbook I checked only has the odds for best director and the best movie categories. In your sportsbook it also has the categories for the best actress and best actor which I will copy and add later.

In case what is everyone's favorite picks?

@Rikaflip. Oppenheimer is the favorite! This is what I have speculated when we were discussing movies during the last Oscar awards hehehe. Will Christopher Nolan win his first oscar? There is a conspiracy theory that the academy hates him hehehe. Also, Oppenheimer was a good movie, however, good for watching at home only.

[edmundduke]

@noormcs5. Where to bet on the Oscar awards? It is in your signature hehehe. The sportsbook I checked only has the odds for best director and the best movie categories. In your sportsbook it also has the categories for the best actress and best actor which I will copy and add later.

In case what is everyone's favorite picks?

@Rikaflip. Oppenheimer is the favorite! This is what I have speculated when we were discussing movies during the last Oscar awards hehehe. Will Christopher Nolan win his first oscar? There is a conspiracy theory that the academy hates him hehehe. Also, Oppenheimer was a good movie, however, good for watching at home only.

I think Oppenheimer will most likely go home with a few. It seemed to be generally praised by critics and movie goers so it will be a solid bet. It would be so funny if Barbie won aswell, not because it is good, but just to be a sign of times lol
I think The Color Purple will win something aswell, i have no clue what it will be, but im pretty sure it will get something given to it.

[chaser15]

I'm just wondering, and it's always on my head for long.

I am sure there are already people behind the scene who knows what will be the result, as of course some of them are part of the judging panel and for sure might leak any information within their circle of friends. Is there a possibility that some of them, even at a low chance, are enthusiasts of placing a bet on this event and they will take advantage of that information?

Anyways, back to the topic, I think too that Oppenheimer likely has a chance to grab that Best Picture Award but I think Killers of the Flower Moon is also a good movie or maybe I'm just biased because I really like the crime drama film genre (I wasn't able to watch it yet). As for the Best Director, it's usually the Best Picture Awardee that likely gets the Best Director award.

[bbc.reporter]

@chaser15. I am quite certain there are no insiders who know who will win this early in the Oscars race hehehe. Also, there are no judges in the Oscar awards. The nominees and the winners are voted by the members of the Academy of arts and motion pictures sciences which has more than 10,000 members including actors, actresses, directors, producers, screenwriters, cameramen, designers and other ordinary people who work in the movie industry. There might be some bribery and politics, however hehehehe. However, knowing who the winners will be? This is very difficult. Some insiders might have information only after nominations voting on January which might also go to the oddsmakers.

@edmundduke. On Oppenheimer, it might not win. The Oscars voters have voted on emotional and inspirational movies for best picture on 2022 and 2023 with Coda and Everything Everywhere. They might do this again hehe.

On Barbie, agreed, it might be nominated for best costume and production design hehe. I have not seen the movie.

[Text]

In my opinion, the first 3 categories will go to the most favorite and strong contender, none other than the excellence from the film "Oppenheimer." Coming from one of the most acclaimed directors and one of the most talented actors working today. This will be the first time for Nolan if he wins.

But, of course, the actual results can often be surprising.

[xLays]

All in for; My pick for the Oscar's Best Picture is "Killers of The Flower Moon," directed by (Best Director) Martin Scorsese with Leonardo DiCaprio winning Best Actor and Lily Gladstone for the Best Actress award! Eventhough Killers of The Flower Moon is not currently showing in theaters the trailer says it all, building excitement and anticipation for its Oscar worthy performance!

Watch the trailer here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cx9nCHsemc

[Sithara007]

All in for; My pick for the Oscar's Best Picture is "Killers of The Flower Moon," directed by (Best Director) Martin Scorsese with Leonardo DiCaprio winning Best Actor and Lily Gladstone for the Best Actress award! Eventhough Killers of The Flower Moon is not currently showing in theaters the trailer says it all, building excitement and anticipation for its Oscar worthy performance!

Watch the trailer here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cx9nCHsemc

I heard a lot of positive reviews related to this movie, but I am not sure whether it has the calibre to overtake the hype created by Oppenheimer. The combination of Martin Scorsese-Leonardo DiCaprio- Robert De Niro looks tempting, but it may not be enough to overcome the challenge from Christopher Nolan and Cillian Murphy in the form of Oppenheimer. I would still say that given the odds, it looks extremely attractive to make a bet in favor of Oppenheimer. IMO, the realistic odds should be somewhere in the range of 1.80-2.00.

[bbc.reporter]

In my opinion, the first 3 categories will go to the most favorite and strong contender, none other than the excellence from the film "Oppenheimer." Coming from one of the most acclaimed directors and one of the most talented actors working today. This will be the first time for Nolan if he wins.

But, of course, the actual results can often be surprising.

I had a similar speculation before because it is quite certain that the nuclear war storyline will be hyped on social media and mainstream news media. However, if you look at the winners for the last 2 years, the favorites before the official nominations were announced never won the Oscar. The movies that won were emotional movies about family, love and making the world a better world.

What are these emotional and inspirational movies? I honesly have not watched much movies this year.

In any case, the nuclear war storyline is only beginning.



Vladimir Putin has ramped up his nuclear rhetoric, saying his country had successfully tested the nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable Burevestnik strategic cruise missile, as he suggested Russia could resume nuclear testing for the first time in more than three decades.

Source https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/vladimir-putin-escalates-nuclear-rhetoric-with-threat-to-resume-testing

[bbc.reporter]

News update.

I reckon everyone might be concentrated very intently on Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan, Cillian Murphy and Killers of the flower moon, Martin Scorsese, Leonardo Di Caprio hehe. There is a new movie that will be premiered on November 22 called Napoleon. This is directed by Ridley Scott and the role of Napoleon is played by Joaquin Phoenix. I speculate this might disappoint that fans of Nolan and Scorsese. The last time Ridley Scott and Joaquin Phoenix worked together was in the movie Gladiator where it won for best movie and best actor.



Joaquin Phoenix is highly regarded as one of the greatest working actors today, as displayed in the varied roles he portrays and the multiple respected directors he has worked with. He now reunites with Ridley Scott, with whom he first worked with on “Gladiator” over two decades ago in 2000, on the upcoming historical epic “Napoleon,” playing the titular French commander set to be released on November 22.

Source https://www.goldderby.com/feature/joaquin-phoenix-oscar-nominations-napoleon-1205584681/

[davis196]

I think that Oppenheimer will win all the Oscars in the categories where it has nominations.
Not because it's a great movie(it is pretty good, but I'm not that impressed), but because we live in the constant thread of a World War III right now. The USA tested nuclear weapons. Russia will get out of the treaty, which reduced nuclear weapon testing. There's is tension in the Middle East. Israel and Iran probably have nuclear weapons. Hollywood became totally political in the last few years and I don't believe that anything will change. The only good thing is that there won't be that much liberal propaganda this year(at least I hope so).

[redsun114]

I think that Oppenheimer will win all the Oscars in the categories where it has nominations.
Not because it's a great movie(it is pretty good, but I'm not that impressed), but because we live in the constant thread of a World War III right now. The USA tested nuclear weapons. Russia will get out of the treaty, which reduced nuclear weapon testing. There's is tension in the Middle East. Israel and Iran probably have nuclear weapons. Hollywood became totally political in the last few years and I don't believe that anything will change. The only good thing is that there won't be that much liberal propaganda this year(at least I hope so).

I haven't watched the movie yet despite of being popular but I only saw the trailer of it almost anywhere. Maybe many will also agree that it was a good movie but we can't just end up on a conclusion and say that it will win all the nominations being thrown at it.

We shouldn't forget that there are also other participants and maybe some of them are also a great movie or actors, actresses, directors, etc... Plus you said Hollywood became political now, so expect that there will be some kind of manipulations going on here. It's a bad thing. I understand why many people are now losing their interest in these kind of events.

[electronicash]

I think that Oppenheimer will win all the Oscars in the categories where it has nominations.
Not because it's a great movie(it is pretty good, but I'm not that impressed), but because we live in the constant thread of a World War III right now. The USA tested nuclear weapons. Russia will get out of the treaty, which reduced nuclear weapon testing. There's is tension in the Middle East. Israel and Iran probably have nuclear weapons. Hollywood became totally political in the last few years and I don't believe that anything will change. The only good thing is that there won't be that much liberal propaganda this year(at least I hope so).

I haven't watched the movie yet despite of being popular but I only saw the trailer of it almost anywhere. Maybe many will also agree that it was a good movie but we can't just end up on a conclusion and say that it will win all the nominations being thrown at it.

We shouldn't forget that there are also other participants and maybe some of them are also a great movie or actors, actresses, directors, etc... Plus you said Hollywood became political now, so expect that there will be some kind of manipulations going on here. It's a bad thing. I understand why many people are now losing their interest in these kind of events.

i happen to have seen Oppenheimer but never have I understood a thing. i might just watch it again.
how often does the movie watcher's favorite win an Oscar by the way? it seems Oppenheimer and Killers of The Flower Moon have the closest odds and have only a chance of winning. and it's a long wait for the winners will be announced months later in March next year.

i heard these movies are very related to current events these days, very political and i think they are the only very possible to win.

[Saint-loup]

Bookmakers really think Barbie will be nominated for the ceremony as a contestant for the best picture of the year? Along with Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling as contestant for best actor and actress of the year? OMG it's insane. There is an option to bet against that somewhere? That would be crazy to be honest, I don't think it's a bad movie, but we are talking about the award of the Oscars academy here. For me, it was more a children or teenage movie than an adult one. And especially, more a long advertising for Mattel and Barbie toys than a serious movie.

[bbc.reporter]

I think that Oppenheimer will win all the Oscars in the categories where it has nominations.
Not because it's a great movie(it is pretty good, but I'm not that impressed), but because we live in the constant thread of a World War III right now. The USA tested nuclear weapons. Russia will get out of the treaty, which reduced nuclear weapon testing. There's is tension in the Middle East. Israel and Iran probably have nuclear weapons. Hollywood became totally political in the last few years and I don't believe that anything will change. The only good thing is that there won't be that much liberal propaganda this year(at least I hope so).

Similar to what I have said before, this is not a certainty. Oppenheimer was not a very inspiring movie and if you have noticed, the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences have more voted for movies like Green Book, Coda and Everything Everywhere for the best movie which were positive and inspiring. The favorites against those movies did not win.

I have not yet watched much of the movies that have a chance to be nominated to make a recommendation which movies are inspiring.

Other important dates before the Oscar Awards.

January 7, 2024, Golden Globe Awards
February 10, 2024, Directors Guild
February 24, 2024, Screen Actors Guild

@Saint-loup. I am quite certain that it will not be nominated.

@electronicash. The oddsmakers might only be guessing because they have the most popular directors. However, I reckon Napoleon might be very underestimated. It is directed by Ridely Scott and has Joaquin Phoenix as leading actor. They worked together on the movie The Gladiator which has won best picture, best director for Ridley and best supporting actor for Joaquin Phoenix. If this movie inspires, this might be the underdog winner hehhehe.

[electronicash]

Bookmakers really think Barbie will be nominated for the ceremony as a contestant for the best picture of the year? Along with Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling as contestant for best actor and actress of the year? OMG it's insane. There is an option to bet against that somewhere? That would be crazy to be honest, I don't think it's a bad movie, but we are talking about the award of the Oscars academy here. For me, it was more a children or teenage movie than an adult one. And especially, more a long advertising for Mattel and Barbie toys than a serious movie.

Don't Look Up movie doesn't look very serious movie also but it was very relatable to the what is happening in the society just like Barbie 2023. it creates the divide of the society whether it includes race, men and women or political views.

i will be watching the Openhiemer to see how the writer may have twisted the story. most of the time the story teller always want to benefit on how it go and they end up righteous in the eyes of the watchers.
Green Book is such a story of racism, quite true even today we identify which city/state is a black state.

which story usually win the oscar, there must be a pattern for this. whether a story that tells about war or the story about divided society?

[bbc.reporter]

@electronicash. This Barbie movie is only trying to have a meaningful message, however, @Saint-loup is right. This movie is only a big commercial for a toy company very much similar to many other of these common cartoon shows.

In any case, on your question on which story usually win an Oscar in best movie category, you only need to look at the 5 last best movies. Everything Everywhere, Coda, Nomadland, Parasite and Greenbook. They are stories about family, growing up, being connected, perseverance and friendship. All of them are inspirational movies except for Parasite.

The favorite Oppenheimer is not very inspirational, I reckon.

[famososMuertos]

In short, the Oscar Awards seem close... but it is the awards season that adjusts the reality of the "@" although they say otherwise many betting houses, which remain "stuck" with these initial "@."

Then, awards season can make our bet more precise, consequently Oppenheimer being the candidate for these Oscar Awards, but be careful, eh!

The list of awards is longer than indicated, without a doubt they are the most important awards, Golden Globe Awards, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, I would add:
Independent Spirit Awards, Critic's Choice among others but one that closes strongly is the Bafta. So no matter what the "@" says, awards season better defines where the real winners are and still, surprises happen at the Oscar Awards.

[o48o]

Bookmakers really think Barbie will be nominated for the ceremony as a contestant for the best picture of the year? Along with Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling as contestant for best actor and actress of the year? OMG it's insane. There is an option to bet against that somewhere? That would be crazy to be honest, I don't think it's a bad movie, but we are talking about the award of the Oscars academy here. For me, it was more a children or teenage movie than an adult one. And especially, more a long advertising for Mattel and Barbie toys than a serious movie.

I think it was a genius move from Mattel to let them openly critizise the Barbie brand in the movie. It had fresh takes and frankly it surprised me positively. Maybe it wins with best original song or best adapted screenplay or something, but i don't think it's in the same league as other films nominated.

And would be absolutely puzzled if Oppenheimer wouldn't win best director award. Making a movie of that scale, that is supposed to have atom bomb blast without any CGI is an ambitious job to say the least. But i guess they don't do it purely on ideological reasons. I remember Nolan saying that they choose to blew up a real working Boeing 747 for Tenet because it is cheaper than doing it with CGI.

[bbc.reporter]

In short, the Oscar Awards seem close... but it is the awards season that adjusts the reality of the "@" although they say otherwise many betting houses, which remain "stuck" with these initial "@."

Then, awards season can make our bet more precise, consequently Oppenheimer being the candidate for these Oscar Awards, but be careful, eh!

The list of awards is longer than indicated, without a doubt they are the most important awards, Golden Globe Awards, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, I would add:
Independent Spirit Awards, Critic's Choice among others but one that closes strongly is the Bafta. So no matter what the "@" says, awards season better defines where the real winners are and still, surprises happen at the Oscar Awards.

You are correct, the Bafta awards is another important date. I will add this. However, the Bafta have a different set of voters with a different inspiration than the members of the Academy of motion pictures arts and sciences. There might be some similarities in the nominations but there are small differences in which movies in each categories are voted as the winners. The best director, the best actor and the best movie might go to Christopher Nolan, Cilian Murphy and Oppenheimer in the Bafta for very clear reasons hehehe. However, the Oscars might vote differently.

[Rikafip]

That would be crazy to be honest, I don't think it's a bad movie, but we are talking about the award of the Oscars academy here. For me, it was more a children or teenage movie than an adult one. And especially, more a long advertising for Mattel and Barbie toys than a serious movie.

Oscars are not what they used to be so you shouldn't really be surprised if Barbie ends up being among "Best Picture" nomineed. I mean, ideologically it fitst current Hollywood agenda, it made shit load of money and is accepted by the critics meaning all the requirements are set.

Prior to 2009 there were only 5 movies nominated for that award and since then we have 10 so every year we have few movies that really shoulnd't be there.


Regarding the ones that will probably be nominated, so far I watched Past Lives and Anatomy of A Fall and while both are good movies, I liked former more and so far it has been the most I saw this year. I am waiting for Oppenheimer and Killers of The Flower Moon to come on streaming sites while The Killer (the one I am very interested in because its Fincher's movie) is coming to Netflix in a few days (November 8th).

[Hispo]

Is there any way to bet something unhinged will take place in this edition of the Oscar Awards, something similar to the unsavory slap in the face given by Will Smith Last time?
Because I have a personal theory of the Oscar organizers realizing such event helped to boost the number of viewers worldview, since they are not stupid, they will try to pull off even more drama to attract even more people to watch their espectacle. The more people watching the Oscars, the more money the organizers can ask for advertisement.

[bbc.reporter]

Regarding the ones that will probably be nominated, so far I watched Past Lives and Anatomy of A Fall and while both are good movies, I liked former more and so far it has been the most I saw this year. I am waiting for Oppenheimer and Killers of The Flower Moon to come on streaming sites while The Killer (the one I am very interested in because its Fincher's movie) is coming to Netflix in a few days (November 8th).

You should add Napoleon in your list of movies to watch. It will be released in cinemas on November 22. If this movie was created to be inspirational and if it can get your sympathy for the leading character then this movie might have the capability to win some awards as an underdog very much similar to Coda.

Also, as I have mentioned already, a Ridley Scott and Joaquin Phoenix partnership has similar chances to win awards as Martin Scorsese and Leonardo di Caprio partnership hehehehe. The last movie of Ridley Scott with Joaquin is the Gladiator which won awards including best movie and best actor.

[Rikafip]

Because I have a personal theory of the Oscar organizers realizing such event helped to boost the number of viewers worldview, since they are not stupid, they will try to pull off even more drama to attract even more people to watch their espectacle.

People still think that incident from last year has been staged? Smh..

Will Smith has been banned from Oscars for 10 years, his reputation ruined and even career damaged as some movies were delayed yet people think that anyone in their right mind and in Will Smith's position would do it? Not everything is a conspiracy, people do stupid things all the time and that was one of them.

You should add Napoleon in your list of movies to watch.

Napoleon is already on my watchlist but I only referred to the movies you mention in the first post. And yeah, I have high expectations from that one as last Ridley's history movie ((The Last Duel) was quite good + Joaquin Phoenix is in it.

[Hispo]

Because I have a personal theory of the Oscar organizers realizing such event helped to boost the number of viewers worldview, since they are not stupid, they will try to pull off even more drama to attract even more people to watch their espectacle.

People still think that incident from last year has been staged? Smh..

Will Smith has been banned from Oscars for 10 years, his reputation ruined and even career damaged as some movies were delayed yet people think that anyone in their right mind and in Will Smith's position would do it? Not everything is a conspiracy, people do stupid things all the time and that was one of them.

You should add Napoleon in your list of movies to watch.

Napoleon is already on my watchlist but I only referred to the movies you mention in the first post. And yeah, I have high expectations from that one as last Ridley's history movie ((The Last Duel) was quite good + Joaquin Phoenix is in it.

Indeed, there is people who believes it was all about a conspiracy to either give more attention to the Oscar Awards or to attack political incorrectness by slapping the face of a comedian who was making fun of someone's appareance.
I admit that I am myself a little inclined to believe there was something fishy going on, but it must be because I was not aware of the penalties and punishments Will Smith was going to suffer for having taken the spotlight of the night in such a negative way, in front of the world.
Let us see what happenes this year, the number of viewers will be likely higher than previous years, solely because of the expectation of people like who speculate on the next slap, which may or may not occur.

Keep in mind, these awards were consistently losing relevance and public until something as unhinged as that happened and became viral.

[FanEagle]

I do believe that Oppenheimer will definitely get the best picture and best director without a doubt. Why? Because it was literally shared like that, and it came in with a huge hype as well, along with Barbie, the marketing that was done with those two movies together was something insane, barbienheimer type of names and all that, it was a movie that was both made for award season but also done for popularity at the same time, a very old school success story if you ask me.

I think it will win without a doubt and should be considered one of the all time best participants for such an award. Not because it is the best movie, but because it is done the best way for awards like these. I think it will win very easily, the others do not have a chance, if I can see it in any of my favorite places, I will certainly wager, anything 2.00 or above will be great to bet, under that and it's too guaranteed and would not feel like it would worth the risk to wager on it.

[Rikafip]

Keep in mind, these awards were consistently losing relevance and public until something as unhinged as that happened and became viral.

Incident from last year won't make it any more popular or relevant. On the other hand, what will make it more relevant is when they finally stop to push their agenda but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

I think it will win very easily, the others do not have a chance, if I can see it in any of my favorite places, I will certainly wager, anything 2.00 or above will be great to bet, under that and it's too guaranteed and would not feel like it would worth the risk to wager on it.

Well, if you are 100% sure that it will win the award, then it shoulnd't matter for you to bet on it even if odds are below 2. Also, even though Oppenheimer is the favorite at the moment, many things can still change and Napoleon hasn't been released yet and that's another one that many expect to end up getting nominated.

[bbc.reporter]

Because I have a personal theory of the Oscar organizers realizing such event helped to boost the number of viewers worldview, since they are not stupid, they will try to pull off even more drama to attract even more people to watch their espectacle.

People still think that incident from last year has been staged? Smh..

Will Smith has been banned from Oscars for 10 years, his reputation ruined and even career damaged as some movies were delayed yet people think that anyone in their right mind and in Will Smith's position would do it? Not everything is a conspiracy, people do stupid things all the time and that was one of them.

You should add Napoleon in your list of movies to watch.

Napoleon is already on my watchlist but I only referred to the movies you mention in the first post. And yeah, I have high expectations from that one as last Ridley's history movie ((The Last Duel) was quite good + Joaquin Phoenix is in it.

It was not staged. Did everyone see Chris Rock's counterattack in his newest stand up special? It was very brutally truthful. Everyone should watch it. He was also premiering it in the town where his wife grew up.

[Hispo]

Keep in mind, these awards were consistently losing relevance and public until something as unhinged as that happened and became viral.

Incident from last year won't make it any more popular or relevant. On the other hand, what will make it more relevant is when they finally stop to push their agenda but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Politics aside. Don't you remember the reaction people had once Will Smith slapped Chirs in the face? It completely give a lot of attention to the Oscars, even people who did not follow the awards was aware of what happened and commented about it and also, it is not a lie or an exaggeration those awards were going through a period of decadence since some years ago, whether  because the agenda you talk about or because people were simply not as interested as before.
I would even dare to say more people are keeping an eye on this year's edition because of the scandal of Will Smith, staged or not. It would not stop the organizers to try to pull off something to keep people hooked on their event.

[Rikafip]

It was not staged. Did everyone see Chris Rock's counterattack in his newest stand up special? It was very brutally truthful. Everyone should watch it. He was also premiering it in the town where his wife grew up.

That's what people do now, spread all sorts of conspiracy theories out of ignorance.

By the way, I finally saw Oppenheimer and while its a decent movie, I really don't understand the hype around it and especially I don't see a reason for it being a favorite to for a Best Picture. At least two movies (that will probably end up among nomineed) I saw this year were clearly superior (Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall) and I still have to watch Killers Of The Flowers Moon.

[bbc.reporter]

Keep in mind, these awards were consistently losing relevance and public until something as unhinged as that happened and became viral.

Incident from last year won't make it any more popular or relevant. On the other hand, what will make it more relevant is when they finally stop to push their agenda but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Politics aside. Don't you remember the reaction people had once Will Smith slapped Chirs in the face? It completely give a lot of attention to the Oscars, even people who did not follow the awards was aware of what happened and commented about it and also, it is not a lie or an exaggeration those awards were going through a period of decadence since some years ago, whether  because the agenda you talk about or because people were simply not as interested as before.
I would even dare to say more people are keeping an eye on this year's edition because of the scandal of Will Smith, staged or not. It would not stop the organizers to try to pull off something to keep people hooked on their event.

The slapping of Chris Rock occurred during 2022 Oscar ceremomies. The Academy of motion pictures arts and science asked Chris Rock to be the host again for the 2023 ceremonies which I speculate that the slapping could be used for marketing hehe. However, Chris Rock did not accept. He said it would be something similar to returning to a crime scene hehehehe.

@Rikafip. You are lucky you only watched it in your home with subtitles. I watched it in the cinema and I was scratching my head and telling myself that this movie is not for the big screen.

[Hispo]

Keep in mind, these awards were consistently losing relevance and public until something as unhinged as that happened and became viral.

Incident from last year won't make it any more popular or relevant. On the other hand, what will make it more relevant is when they finally stop to push their agenda but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Politics aside. Don't you remember the reaction people had once Will Smith slapped Chirs in the face? It completely give a lot of attention to the Oscars, even people who did not follow the awards was aware of what happened and commented about it and also, it is not a lie or an exaggeration those awards were going through a period of decadence since some years ago, whether  because the agenda you talk about or because people were simply not as interested as before.
I would even dare to say more people are keeping an eye on this year's edition because of the scandal of Will Smith, staged or not. It would not stop the organizers to try to pull off something to keep people hooked on their event.

The slapping of Chris Rock occurred during 2022 Oscar ceremomies. The Academy of motion pictures arts and science asked Chris Rock to be the host again for the 2023 ceremonies which I speculate that the slapping could be used for marketing hehe. However, Chris Rock did not accept. He said it would be something similar to returning to a crime scene hehehehe.

@Rikafip. You are lucky you only watched it in your home with subtitles. I watched it in the cinema and I was scratching my head and telling myself that this movie is not for the big screen.

That is the kind of thing I mean. The academy probably wanted to carry the some of the attention of the slap he received to this next edition of the Oscars, but it was fruitless.
It is a weird thing Chris Rock decided not to host the event again, if I had to guess I would say he wants to distance as much as possible from what happened there and focus in his professional career, instead being remembered from what happened there. There is also possible he thought that accepting such honor again would have implied to joke or make references about what happened while on the stage, which probably could erode the friendship between him and Will Smith even further, among other actresses and actors who did not laughed at the circus which took place last year.
It is a wise choice by him in the long term, not to squish as much money and fame out the stupidness of Will.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. You are lucky you only watched it in your home with subtitles. I watched it in the cinema and I was scratching my head and telling myself that this movie is not for the big screen.

What was the issue? You couldn't understand the conversations without subtitles or something?

While I love going to cinema, the main reason I didn't watch Oppenheimer that way is because its simply too long for me to watch it that way. I just can't force myself to sit in cinema chair for 3 hours straight and for the same reason I didn't watch Killers of The Flower Moon which is even longer (almost 3 and a half hours).

[el kaka22]

Honestly, as someone who has watched Oppenheimer, that movie deserves an Oscar without a doubt, there is no other movie that was made all this year since the last Oscars that could be even remotely as close to that as possible.

I mean just the very last sentence is chilling, "I think we did", anyone who watched it knows what I am talking about, I do not want to give any spoilers, but that alone, from Cillian Murphy, is just unbelievable. I have watched many scary movies in my life, I love them, and yet I can tell you that none of them ended as scary as that because it's the reality we are living in right now. That is why I have to say that this movie was definitely the best movie there ever was without a doubt, best movie I have seen in many years.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. You are lucky you only watched it in your home with subtitles. I watched it in the cinema and I was scratching my head and telling myself that this movie is not for the big screen.

What was the issue? You couldn't understand the conversations without subtitles or something?

While I love going to cinema, the main reason I didn't watch Oppenheimer that way is because its simply too long for me to watch it that way. I just can't force myself to sit in cinema chair for 3 hours straight and for the same reason I didn't watch Killers of The Flower Moon which is even longer (almost 3 and a half hours).

No, I might have a hearing problem hehehe. Also or movies that have much dialogue, I like to have the subtitles on for me to be more absorbed by the movie very much like reading a book.

In any case, my list to watch for Saturday and Sunday will be Killers of the Flowermoon, Poor Things and the Holdovers. There is also a movie by Bradley Cooper with the title Maestro. He starred, directed and produced this movie.

[Rikafip]

No, I might have a hearing problem hehehe. Also or movies that have much dialogue, I like to have the subtitles on for me to be more absorbed by the movie very much like reading a book.

Hah, its exactly the same situation for me. I started having hearing problems in certain situations few years ago so its also a problem for me to watch movies subtitles. I mean, I can watch it but I may miss some words here and there while I want to hear absolutely every word while watching.

In any case, my list to watch for Saturday and Sunday will be Killers of the Flowermoon, Poor Things and the Holdovers. There is also a movie by Bradley Cooper with the title Maestro. He starred, directed and produced this movie.

Poor Things already showing in cinema at your place? Here it comes in 3 weeks.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. Poor Things is removed from the list hehe. I only assumed it was released already because it is in the sportsbooks' list for best picture already. I watched the trailer and this gave me a feeling that is something similar to Everything Everywhere All At Once. It might be the best picture winner if the voters vote like they have done last year, I reckon.

Also on Rottentomatoes, the early reviews are very good and they declare that Emma Stone might win for best actress. She is also the favorite in the sportsbooks this early, very much similar to Michelle Yeoh for her performance on Everything Everywhere hehehehe.

[bbc.reporter]

Regarding the ones that will probably be nominated, so far I watched Past Lives and Anatomy of A Fall and while both are good movies, I liked former more and so far it has been the most I saw this year. I am waiting for Oppenheimer and Killers of The Flower Moon to come on streaming sites while The Killer (the one I am very interested in because its Fincher's movie) is coming to Netflix in a few days (November 8th).

This weekend I watched the Killers The Flower Moon, the Past Lives and the Holdovers.

On Killers of The Flower Moon, I was not very happy watching this movie. It gave me a similar bored feeling as Oppenheimer and yes I watched it with subtitles.

On Past Lives, I liked the movie especially the beginning. Watching it going to the ending began some boring moments, however, my curiousity on how it will end kept me absorbed by the movie. This movie might be my bet for best cinematography if it is nominated.

On the Holdovers, as of now this is the best movie of the list. My bet for best original screenplay. This is a winner! I wish the odds will be big hhehe.

[Rikafip]

This weekend I watched the Killers The Flower Moon, the Past Lives and the Holdovers.

You lucky bastard! 

Holdovers is coming here in January but I hope that decent quality screener will leak before that, as it usually happen during Oscar season. I have really high hopes for that movie,mainly because I loved Payne-Giamatti combo in Sideways so I happy to hear that you have such a high opinion on it.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I watched The Holdovers through an illegal streaming website hehehe. It was also a bad copy, however, I know if I watch it with a good copy once available, this movie might be a feeling that is something similar to Coda. I would not be shocked if much of the academy members voted for this and won for best picture.

Also, Paul Giamatti was very good for this movie but it might not win him an Oscar. I am curious on Willem Dafoe's performance. He might be best supporting actor hehe.

[STT]

Oppenheimer odds are too short to want to bet at this early stage.  Is it impossible now for a film to be released in the last weeks of the year and qualify, I wasnt aware it would end this early or did I misread that schedule that way.
My outsider bet would be Barbie at 17x     It would be a surprise for sure but at 17x odds you have to a take a long chance it might be the film that some thought was most qualified.  Im not decided on this idea but alot of people said it had a bigger frame to it and that sounds like it could be an oscar deal.  I dont know, Im just mentioning I will think about it.

[arimamib]

The slapping of Chris Rock occurred during 2022 Oscar ceremomies. The Academy of motion pictures arts and science asked Chris Rock to be the host again for the 2023 ceremonies which I speculate that the slapping could be used for marketing hehe. However, Chris Rock did not accept. He said it would be something similar to returning to a crime scene hehehehe.

Rock's decision is understandable. The slapping incident was a traumatic experience for him, and it is likely that he is still processing it. Returning to the Oscars could potentially trigger anxiety or other negative emotions.

Maybe Rock thinks of being there will give Smith any more attention. By declining the offer to host the Oscars, Rock is taking away the opportunity for Smith to make another apology or to try to justify his actions. This could be a way for Rock to regain control of the narrative and to ensure that the focus is on his work, not on the slapping incident.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. I watched The Holdovers through an illegal streaming website hehehe.

Ah that explains it. I gave up on watching cam rips long time ago as I don't wanna ruin my expeirence by watching something I might like in shitty audio and video quality. Out of curiosity, can you please send me link of that streaming website via PM as I am curious how bad copy is, as I didn't find it on streaming websites I sometimes use.

It was also a bad copy, however, I know if I watch it with a good copy once available, this movie might be a feeling that is something similar to Coda.

I don't understand this part, why would it make it feel more like CODA (which was imho one of the weakest Best Picture winners in recent years).

[Kakmakr]

Well, in my opinion with all the conflict going on in the world, we need a movie like "Oppenheimer" to get the Best Picture award. It sends out a strong message that Nuclear War are stupid and should be avoided at all cost.

We have "Rocket Man" in North Korea with an itchy finger, but this movie will most probably never be seen there.. because they see this as western propaganda.  

We currently have nations in conflict with the ability to use nuclear weapons, so highlighting the absolute craziness to use weapons of mass destruction... are absolutely necessary now.

[Rikafip]

Well, in my opinion with all the conflict going on in the world, we need a movie like "Oppenheimer" to get the Best Picture award. It sends out a strong message that Nuclear War are stupid and should be avoided at all cost.

Having watched Oppenheimer, I don't think that Nolan sent a strong message at all. I mean, I am a big fan of post apocalyptic/nuclear war films and probably saw vast majority of the important ones ( The War Game, Dead Man's Letters, Threads, Fail Safe, The Day After, When The Winds Blow, Special Bulletin, Testament etc) and I didn't feel even remotely as bad (actually, not bad/worried at all) after watching Oppenheimer, like I did with the movies I just mentioned and my guess is neither are others.

With that being said, Oscar awards will again be relevant and regain its popularity when they stop sending messages and actually start awarding the best movies.

[bbc.reporter]

It was also a bad copy, however, I know if I watch it with a good copy once available, this movie might be a feeling that is something similar to Coda.

I don't understand this part, why would it make it feel more like CODA (which was imho one of the weakest Best Picture winners in recent years).

It makes it feel very much similar to CODA where if The Holdovers is nominated, it might be the weakest nominated movie, however, it might get the heart of the voters in the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. Also, if it will not be nominated for best picture, I am quite certain this will be nominated for best original screenplay.

However, it can be argued that CODA has a message to be more aware on people with hearing disabilities. This might be the agenda and it might be why it won the votes. The Holdovers does not have this type of strong message for viewers.

@Kakmakr. I had a similar argument, however, the voters of the academy have their own agenda and have their own storylines to spread instead of the storylines we see in mainstream news media.

[Rikafip]

It makes it feel very much similar to CODA where if The Holdovers is nominated, it might be the weakest nominated movie, however, it might get the heart of the voters in the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences.

What I meant to ask is why would it feel more like CODA if you watched the better copy? You mean it would be even a better movie?

However, it can be argued that CODA has a message to be more aware on people with hearing disabilities. This might be the agenda and it might be why it won the votes.

That, and another big factor for the win is having the lead female character. Regarding hearing disability theme, for me personally much better was Sound of Metal made one year before CODA that was Oscar nominated and managed to win 2 in the end.

By the way, thanks for the link. I just checked the website and The Holdovers picture quality is just horrendous, reminded me of first cam rips I saw back in the 90s (if I remember correctly first cam rip for me was Independence Day as I couldn't wait for it to come to cinema in my country.)

[bbc.reporter]

It makes it feel very much similar to CODA where if The Holdovers is nominated, it might be the weakest nominated movie, however, it might get the heart of the voters in the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences.

What I meant to ask is why would it feel more like CODA if you watched the better copy? You mean it would be even a better movie?

It might be because the feeling I had while watching the bad copy might not be as good if I watched a good copy where I can see what the director wanted me to see, hear what he wanted me to hear and feel what he wanted me to feel. We might be losing some of this when we watch movies with a bad copy.

In any case, I will watch it again if a good copy is available and I can be quite certain that the Holdovers will be more beautiful, more funny and I will get the real feeling of what this movie was created for. Best original screenplay hhehehehe!

[FanEagle]

The biggest joke of the century is that Barbie is actually nominated? I am not saying that it didn't try to have some sort of meaning, there isn't really just some dancing and chat, there is this main idea behind it as well, and that's understandable, the whole "Barbie created terrible expectations from woman" type of situation and I agree, BUT when we are talking about a movie about potentially what caused the death of all humans, I would say the idea behind Barbie can't ever be taken seriously. And... it's Barbie lol, seriously? Barbie? Oppenheimer will win this one without even trouble, it is not going to be even a discussion about it, there isn't even any movie that could be alternative to it.

Other categories are fine too, but Cillian Murphy MUST win the best actor, that dude played the role perfectly, I wouldn't say a single line was out of order, he played it so amazingly on every single scene he was in, he definitely deserves it no question.

[Saint-loup]

This weekend I watched the Killers The Flower Moon, the Past Lives and the Holdovers.

On Killers of The Flower Moon, I was not very happy watching this movie. It gave me a similar bored feeling as Oppenheimer and yes I watched it with subtitles.

You shouldn't say that about Killers of the Flower Moon, this movie is very likely to win at least one or two Oscars IMO because it owns very well reputed and awarded -almost living legendary- actors Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro and director Martin Scorsese. But mostly because it doesn't try to be commercial unlike Oppenheimer, with such a duration(3h30) and such a subject(a massive scam and murder of Indians) Scorsese knew it won't be a great business success. So I think he made it for the glory. And I bet Lily Gladstone (the squaw) will win the best actress award at least.

[Rikafip]

It might be because the feeling I had while watching the bad copy might not be as good if I watched a good copy where I can see what the director wanted me to see, hear what he wanted me to hear and feel what he wanted me to feel. We might be losing some of this when we watch movies with a bad copy.

Well, of course that watching such a bad copy can affect your perception of the movie and for exactly that reason I am not watching them anymore.

The biggest joke of the century is that Barbie is actually nominated?

Oscar nominations are not released yet, but based on what we've seen in previous years, Barbie will most likely end up getting nominated in (the most important) Best Picture category. It made shit load of money ($1.4 billion+) and critics generally liked it meaning both criteria is met. Best Picture nomination lost its value since they increased the number of nominated movies from 5 to 10 so now we get all sorts of mediocre movies nominated.

You shouldn't say that about Killers of the Flower Moon, this movie is very likely to win at least one or two Oscars IMO because it owns very well reputed and awarded -almost living legendary- actors

All that is completely irrelevant when it comes to personal opinion about a movie. Everything Everywhere All At Once won 7 Oscars last year while I coulnd't even finsih the movie and I probably won't give it another try.

[o48o]

The biggest joke of the century is that Barbie is actually nominated? I am not saying that it didn't try to have some sort of meaning, there isn't really just some dancing and chat, there is this main idea behind it as well, and that's understandable, the whole "Barbie created terrible expectations from woman" type of situation and I agree, BUT when we are talking about a movie about potentially what caused the death of all humans, I would say the idea behind Barbie can't ever be taken seriously. And... it's Barbie lol, seriously? Barbie? Oppenheimer will win this one without even trouble, it is not going to be even a discussion about it, there isn't even any movie that could be alternative to it.

Other categories are fine too, but Cillian Murphy MUST win the best actor, that dude played the role perfectly, I wouldn't say a single line was out of order, he played it so amazingly on every single scene he was in, he definitely deserves it no question.

I am not sure why should movies be comparable in this way. Why couldn't movies with different genres enter into the game? Imho depth is just a matter of perspective and we need all kinds of movies. The idea that movies should all be heavy to process, artsy, or deal with concepts like oppenheimer in order to be taken seriously, would leave us with pretty bleak cinema.

Lack of depth in a movies is in eye of beholder as you can see lots of levels in different movies. They don't all need to be sad or direct about something that happened. It's not about who makes the saddest and most realistic movie should win. And it's not like Barbie went with the easiest route. It went all in bashing the very firm it was advertising. Backgrounds weren't digitally added. But moved by hand. Music was actually well done considering it was mostly musical. Imho it was bold and original, and left Bechdel test seem to be like a bad memory in movie history.

Sometimes being funny is the sugar we need to get the medicine in while being all preachy about it.

Edit: This might make it more difficult for judges to justify "best leading role" or something like that, but i assume it makes it more predictable for outcomes, as many people will see "serious" and sad roles with genocide ect, as winners. Which they often are. But there are other areas to judge, which makes the whole event more interesting and fair

[STT]

Its not a joke though, I agree the 5 second view is what the hell is Barbie even in the line up for.  Oscars, film royalty the greatest actors in their generation etc. so why would you do this but comedies can make the Oscars all sorts of film types, funny animated films anything.  I think the main deciding factor and swing to votes is usually a theme of some kind, if you can watch Barbie and find some message and believe thats what the Oscars might vote on and it might win then you have a bet; its 17x odds so we arent requiring much down to win a fair amount it just has to have some slight chance there.   
  Its outside bet for sure but I like the long shot bets, thats just me and Ive yet to decide for sure just yet.  I havent even watched them all yet, thats probably most important.

[Saint-loup]

All that is completely irrelevant when it comes to personal opinion about a movie. Everything Everywhere All At Once won 7 Oscars last year while I coulnd't even finsih the movie and I probably won't give it another try.

Yes I agree with you but in his initial message bbc.reporter was talking about movies he watched likely to receive Oscars according to him. And from what I understood he isn't thinking that Killers of the Flower Moon is good enough to receive one main Oscar. I think the opposite, for me this movie is "cinematically" better than Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer is not surprising, and looks too much like other movies such as The Imitation Game, I believe.

[Rikafip]

Yes I agree with you but in his initial message bbc.reporter was talking about movies he watched likely to receive Oscars according to him.

From what I see, he was merely sharing his personal opinion on those 3 movies, and not saying that its not good enough to win any Oscars.

And from what I understood he isn't thinking that Killers of the Flower Moon is good enough to receive one main Oscar. I think the opposite, for me this movie is "cinematically" better than Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer is not surprising, and looks too much like other movies such as The Imitation Game, I believe.

I have yet to see Killers of the Flower Moon (waiting for a good screener) but I agree about Oppenheimer/Imitation Game as I wasn't imporessed with neither of those and I think that the are both highly overrrated.

[bbc.reporter]

Update on the odds for best picture. We have a new entry in the top 10 and this is the movie The Holdovers. The odds for it is presently placed at 10.00, I reckon it was on 25.00 when I created this thread. I was waiting to watch Poor Things and Anatomy of a Fall before making a speculation bet for the best movie, however, I cannot wait anymore hehehe. I knew I should have done this already on The Holdovers after watching it.

Oppenheimer 2.20
 1.77
Killers of The Flower Moon 3.70
 4.50
Poor Things 6.00

Past Lives 9.00
 10.00
[New Entry] The Holdovers 10.00
Lee 12.00
 13.00
Maestro 12.00
 13.00
Anatomy of A Fall 13.00

The Color Purple 15.00
 14.00
Barbie 17.00
 15.00
The Killer 17.00 15.00

Oppenheimer appears to be behaving very much similar to the Fablemans. Odds became smaller before nominations voting then it went bigger after nominations announcement.

[Rikafip]

Update on the odds for best picture. We have a new entry in the top 10 and this is the movie The Holdovers. The odds for it is presently placed at 10.00, I reckon it was on 25.00 when I created this thread. I was waiting to watch Poor Things and Anatomy of a Fall before making a speculation bet for the best movie, however, I cannot wait anymore hehehe. I knew I should have done this already on The Holdovers after watching it.

I watched The Holdovers yesterday (solid rip is out btw, if yoiu want to watch it again) and It completely lived up to my high expectations, definitely one of the best movies this year (along with Past Lives and Anatomy of A Fall). I still have to watch the few candidates though to decide which one I actually like the most and the next one is Killers of The Flower Moon as quality rip finally showed up.

The Color Purple 15.00
 14.00

What's the point in making a remake of the american movie that isn't even that old and still looks pretty good? Smh...

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I remind you to make your expectations lower for Killers of Flower Moon to enjoy the movie. I made my expectations very high and this only caused disappointment very much similar to Oppenheimer. I watched Oppenheimer again with subtitles. It did not give me the same experience similar to Tenet where I did not like it at first viewing, however, on the second viewing I very much liked it which made me do a third and fourth viewing hehhehehe.

I will next watch Anatomy of a fall this week then Poor Things once available.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. I remind you to make your expectations lower for Killers of Flower Moon to enjoy the movie.

Too late for that.  Few of my good IRL friends already hyped me as they loved the movie (and we have similar taste) so my expectations are already high. But, even witout them its hard not to have high expectations when Scorsese is director and, even though his last movie The Irishman was a big disappointment (imho that mvoie would be great if it was made ~20 years earlier).

I made my expectations very high and this only caused disappointment very much similar to Oppenheimer. I watched Oppenheimer again with subtitles. It did not give me the same experience similar to Tenet where I did not like it at first viewing, however, on the second viewing I very much liked it which made me do a third and fourth viewing hehhehehe.

You watch Oppenheimer 4 times? U crazy lol. I saw it once and probably won't see it ever again.

I will next watch Anatomy of a fall this week then Poor Things once available.

I am curios to hear your opinion on the former as for me its one of the best movies this year.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. No, I said I cannot watch Oppenheimer 4 times similar to what I did to Tenet where I liked Tenet very much on the second viewing then watched it again 2 more times. On Oppenheimer, I reckon 2 viewings is too much hehehe.

In any case, did you like Killers of Flower Moon?

I have already watched Anatomy of a Fall yesterday. The movie is simple and low budget, however, this is the type of movie that would make me run fast to get more snacks. It is a very good movie! Sandra Hüller will be my bet for best actress.

[STT]

Theres the danger of personal bias when judging these category winners.  Tenet is just an easier movie to watch, more entertaining but the awards are for exceptional performances etc.  personally I love all the action movies but they lack the depth to get a win often.  The best route can be in something like soundtrack category where some movies are awesome in the midst of a quite light plot or dialogue.    
  Of those two movies I'd be biased towards Oppenheimer even if its less watchable on repeat because the very nature of the events it describes are world changing and extremely sensitive to handle and describe to a global audience.   Its probably easier to win an oscar in that regard though it doesn't have to be true, a musical or any movie can win but I look out for new or different in some way to advance the  chances of any particular movie.

[FanEagle]

I didn't really consider Killers of Flower Moon as a big big movie and just wanted to see it because Leo and De niro was in it, and I still think that Oppenheimer was better. I still think Oppenheimer is not even remotely close to any other movie, if that doesn't win the best movie of the year then I do not know what I am watching because it is by far the best, not even maybe for me.

I would put 1.01 odds for that movie, that's how much I believe that they should win, doesn't mean they will, academy has made some terrible decisions here and there, so I would guess some years they pick the movie that should win and some years they are just picking something because they want to pick it, and that means we are going to just wait and see if they will give it to the movie that deserves it or the one that they want to give just because they feel like it. The decision making process is a bit weird, you do not exactly know what they look for, certainly not what the people wants, otherwise it would just be marvel movies with billions of box office returns.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. No, I said I cannot watch Oppenheimer 4 times similar to what I did to Tenet where I liked Tenet very much on the second viewing then watched it again 2 more times. On Oppenheimer, I reckon 2 viewings is too much hehehe.

Ah, I understand. I watched Tenet only once and I have no intentions watching it ever again.

In any case, did you like Killers of Flower Moon?

Nope, as movie is 3 and a half hours liong so i have to wait for weekend (most likely Saturday) to be able to watch it in one go.

Sandra Hüller will be my bet for best actress.

She is always great! If you haven't already, I suggest you to take a look at one of hers previous movies, Toni Erdmann and she has another inteersting one that should be out soon, The Zone of Interest]https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7160372/?ref_=nm_flmg_t_2_act]The Zone of Interest.

[Saint-loup]

@Rikafip. No, I said I cannot watch Oppenheimer 4 times similar to what I did to Tenet where I liked Tenet very much on the second viewing then watched it again 2 more times. On Oppenheimer, I reckon 2 viewings is too much hehehe.

In any case, did you like Killers of Flower Moon?

I have already watched Anatomy of a Fall yesterday. The movie is simple and low budget, however, this is the type of movie that would make me run fast to get more snacks. It is a very good movie! Sandra Hüller will be my bet for best actress.

Sandra Hüller is an interesting bet for the best actress award but personally I still stand with Lily Gladstone. Would you like to bet against me? 1 or 2mbtc (it could be less or more, if you prefer)
If none of them win the best actress Oscar, the bet would be voided. If Sandra Hüller win the award I would pay you Xmbtc in the week after the Oscar ceremony (currently scheduled for March 11, 2024 utc), if it's Lily Gladstone you would do the same. In case of high BTC fees, the settlement could be done in a large cap altcoin (failing to pay could lead to be tagged by DT members and a thread in the Reputation section, of course). What do you think?

[bbc.reporter]

@Saint-loup. Hehehehe are you a hustler? Why would I accept your offer if I can risk my money on the sportsbooks' offer with better odds. Sandra Hüller is presently on 7.50 for best actress. However, I will accept your offer if you agree that my bet is Emma Stone against your Lily Gladstone. Also, I cannot agree if the price is in crypto. This will be a problem for the loser. Let us agree on $50 and pay after the winner is announced using an acceptable altcoin if fees on bitcoin are high.

[Saint-loup]

@Saint-loup. Hehehehe are you a hustler? Why would I accept your offer if I can risk my money on the sportsbooks' offer with better odds. Sandra Hüller is presently on 7.50 for best actress. However, I will accept your offer if you agree that my bet is Emma Stone against your Lily Gladstone. Also, I cannot agree if the price is in crypto. This will be a problem for the loser. Let us agree on $50 and pay after the winner is announced using an acceptable altcoin if fees on bitcoin are high.

It's not the same thing as a sportsbook bet because at sportsbooks you would lose your stake if any other actress win, while here you would only lose $50 if Gladstone is the winner, and nothing else, so it's not the same thing. Especially if you think Killers of the Flower Moon is not good...
Anyway if Sandra Hüller is your favorite in your heart and your inner conviction it wouldn't be funny to bet on someone else you don't trust and you don't like simply because she is better rated by bookmakers (who are wrong most of the time).
So if you still want to bet on her I'm ready to take your bet at those odds (ie 7.50). It means it would be a 6.5 to 1 paying bet (6.5:1). If you win I would pay you 6.5 what you would pay me if I win. For $50, I would pay you $325. On a sportbook you would pay $50 to bet and receive $375(7.5x) if you win because you would receive your stake back($50) along with your winnings($325)(6.5x). Here you don't pay anything to bet, so you keep your stake but you receive the winnings only(6.5x). What do you think of that?
If you prefer betting on Emma Stone, I can accept it but only if you really like the movie and the actress's performance. So we would need to wait for its release.

[bbc.reporter]

@Saint-loup. It appears you do not understand. Similar to my enjoyment for the movie the Holdovers, I liked Sandra Hüller's performance and to win $100 I would only need to bet $15. This is a bet for fun on the Oscar awards. If this is a bet of inner conviction then I would bet everything I have. You make it appear that this is a serious challenge hehehehe.

In any case, if we are talking about a winning bet. Lily Gladstone is very much praised by the critics and speculated to win but only very few people have taken notice on Sandra Hüller's performance. Also, I can use the same argument on you, if you have Lily Gladstone with inner conviction then why would we need to wait for Emma Stone's performance?

However, I will accept your bet and it appears that you might be afraid that I might not pay by telling me I will be tagged by DT members. I will send you the money and you will also become the escrow for this bet. We use 1mbtc as the price for me to win 6.5 mbtc from the bet. But I have my proposal, if Sandra Hüller is not in the final list of nominations the bet will not continue.

[Saint-loup]

@Saint-loup. It appears you do not understand. Similar to my enjoyment for the movie the Holdovers, I liked Sandra Hüller's performance and to win $100 I would only need to bet $15. This is a bet for fun on the Oscar awards. If this is a bet of inner conviction then I would bet everything I have. You make it appear that this is a serious challenge hehehehe.

In any case, if we are talking about a winning bet. Lily Gladstone is very much praised by the critics and speculated to win but only very few people have taken notice on Sandra Hüller's performance. Also, I can use the same argument on you, if you have Lily Gladstone with inner conviction then why would we need to wait for Emma Stone's performance?

However, I will accept your bet and it appears that you might be afraid that I might not pay by telling me I will be tagged by DT members. I will send you the money and you will also become the escrow for this bet. We use 1mbtc as the price for me to win 6.5 mbtc from the bet. But I have my proposal, if Sandra Hüller is not in the final list of nominations the bet will not continue.

To be honest, it would really bore me to have to care about that bet during several months and to waste transaction fees for nothing at the end if your actress is not qualified. So I have a counterproposal, if Sandra Hüller is not nominated, your bet will be replaced by another one, on another actress, with other odds then. It would be a kind of joker.
So you would need to choose 2 actresses instead of one and we would need to agree with the payout of the 2nd choice. Of course if Hüller is nominated, your 2nd choice will be voided, and won't count anymore for the victory.  
I would have a joker too, but my joker would be Gladstone Lily   LOL  
If our joker is not qualified either, there is no 3rd joker, and the bet will continue to the end.

My other proposal is to change the bet into a bet against Gladstone at 1:1 in case of failure of Hüller's nomination (while Gladstone being nominated), instead of a 2nd actress bet. That is to say I would pay you 2mbtc(your stake+mine) if Gladstone doesn't win the best actress award and I would keep your 1mbtc stake if she wins. If she's not nominated I would send back your stake(1mbtc).

[bbc.reporter]

@Saint-loup. This proposal of yours is very good. This will certainly make the Oscar ceremony more exciting next year hehehehe.

Final clearance from you. If Sandra Hüller is not included in the final list of nominations, my bet against your Lily Gladstone will be Emma Stone for odds of 1:1, however, if Sandra Hüller is nominated for best actress then this bet continues and it will be on odds of 1:6.50. Correct? Bet is 1mbtc and I want you to be the escrow. I will send once the fees are lower. Also, it might be yours already ehhehehehehehee.

Send me address.

[Rikafip]

I will send once the fees are lower. Also, it might be yours already ehhehehehehehee.

Why bother with sending as I don't think fees will go down anytime soon. Isn't it more convenient for both sides to simply wait to see who wins and at the end whoever losses, sends BTC?  I honestly doubt that any of you will try to scam each other and effectively ruin your reputation here.

Regarding Emma Stone, from what I hear, she really kicked ass in Poor Things (I have to admit that I have a crush on her for a loing time, ever since Superbad  ). Can't for that damn movie to come to cinemas.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. However, the voters do not only consider the performance. They might also be considering their agenda, their politics and what statement their pick would make to the world.

Emma Stone is a white, American girl who is a good actress but Lily Gladstone is an American native who will certainly make a statement if she wins for best actress. This will open a storyline on how her people were persecuted, killed and moved from their lands by the American settlers. It might also help in Hollywood's woke agenda.

In any case, @Saint-loup has not sent a bitcoin address yet. I will wait until Wednesday and I will assume the discussions for this bet is cancelled if there is no address.

[Saint-loup]

Why it would be cancelled bro, you think I start to be scared of losing against you? LOL I'm kidding of course
Before giving you my address I want to sum up things in order to avoid any future boring contentious disputes about the agreement.

So do you agree with this :

If Sandra Hüller wins, you will receive 6.5mbtc + 1mbtc from your stake
If Lily Gladstone wins, you won't receive anything I'll keep your 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated but Emma Stone(your jocker) wins, you will receive 1mbtc + 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated and any other actress than Emma Stone (and Lily Gladstone) wins, you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)
If Sandra Hüller is nominated and Emma Stone wins or any other actress (except Lily Gladstone), you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)

Are you ok with that bro?

[AmoreJaz]

@Rikafip. However, the voters do not only consider the performance. They might also be considering their agenda, their politics and what statement their pick would make to the world.

Emma Stone is a white, American girl who is a good actress but Lily Gladstone is an American native who will certainly make a statement if she wins for best actress. This will open a storyline on how her people were persecuted, killed and moved from their lands by the American settlers. It might also help in Hollywood's woke agenda.

In any case, @Saint-loup has not sent a bitcoin address yet. I will wait until Wednesday and I will assume the discussions for this bet is cancelled if there is no address.

i have the same feeling also on this one. they have other considerations here, you know, even if we say we are in the film industry, you can't also avoid the politics surrounding it. so the likelihood of lily gladstone being the winner is very high. a very good statement for their cause. and if that happens, it may very well stir the interest of more audience to check out this film even if the run time is so long, longer than the usual movie films. but i surprised myself on this one, normally i am bored with longer films but this one is good in my opinion as i stayed on this movie til the end. just bring more popcorn and drinks.  

for the other movies nominated for this event, i still have to see some of them so i don't know yet about the chance in other categories. by the way, if you want to bet in other interesting money lines different from the usual betting lines from bookies, you can check out  - futuur

but you can check the odds like in best actress, stake is indeed favouring stone and gladstone as the top contenders on this category, whereas, murphy and cooper on the best actor top choices based from the odds.


https://stake.com/sports/politics-entertainment/entertainment/outrights

[bbc.reporter]

Why it would be cancelled bro, you think I start to be scared of losing against you? LOL I'm kidding of course
Before giving you my address I want to sum up things in order to avoid any future boring contentious disputes about the agreement.

So do you agree with this :

If Sandra Hüller wins, you will receive 6.5mbtc + 1mbtc from your stake
If Lily Gladstone wins, you won't receive anything I'll keep your 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated but Emma Stone(your jocker) wins, you will receive 1mbtc + 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated and any other actress than Emma Stone (and Lily Gladstone) wins, you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)
If Sandra Hüller is nominated and Emma Stone wins or any other actress (except Lily Gladstone), you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)

Are you ok with that bro?

Why would anyone assume that you were scared? Your Lily Gladstone is very much praised by the critics, she is the predicited winner for best actress and you are the escrow for this bet. I should be the one who should be afraid hehhehehe.

In any case, yes I agree. Your latest proposal is only a repitition of the original proposal that I have discussed with you.

Send address and I will send you 1mbtc as soon as the fees are low. I will use my campaign payment for the bet to show that I have received the coins from the manager and sent coins to you.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. However, the voters do not only consider the performance. They might also be considering their agenda, their politics and what statement their pick would make to the world.

Of course Academy has its own agenda and rarely awards Oscars purely based on the performance + it also depends on the amount of money film tudio invests in "lobbying". 

Emma Stone is a white, American girl who is a good actress but Lily Gladstone is an American native who will certainly make a statement if she wins for best actress. This will open a storyline on how her people were persecuted, killed and moved from their lands by the American settlers.

True, those are all the things that Academy might take into consideration, but I also think that topic of "Poor Things" (afaik feminism) might also be attractive to them, and as AmoreJaz shown even Stake favors her over Lily Gladstone.

[Saint-loup]

Why it would be cancelled bro, you think I start to be scared of losing against you? LOL I'm kidding of course
Before giving you my address I want to sum up things in order to avoid any future boring contentious disputes about the agreement.

So do you agree with this :

If Sandra Hüller wins, you will receive 6.5mbtc + 1mbtc from your stake
If Lily Gladstone wins, you won't receive anything I'll keep your 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated but Emma Stone(your jocker) wins, you will receive 1mbtc + 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated and any other actress than Emma Stone (and Lily Gladstone) wins, you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)
If Sandra Hüller is nominated and Emma Stone wins or any other actress (except Lily Gladstone), you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)

Are you ok with that bro?

Why would anyone assume that you were scared? Your Lily Gladstone is very much praised by the critics, she is the predicited winner for best actress and you are the escrow for this bet. I should be the one who should be afraid hehhehehe.

In any case, yes I agree. Your latest proposal is only a repitition of the original proposal that I have discussed with you.

Send address and I will send you 1mbtc as soon as the fees are low. I will use my campaign payment for the bet to show that I have received the coins from the manager and sent coins to you.

Ok dude, here is my address for your 1mbtc stake : bc1q8rsz94pfk32x6ukrxkq7hh74trfunla6evy53m
Unfortunately mining fees have lowered since yesterday but they're still high. I hope you will be able to send the amount before 23th January, day of the Oscar Nominations Announcement though. If the transaction hasn't been mined before this day it's not a problem as long as it had been sent.

[bbc.reporter]

Why it would be cancelled bro, you think I start to be scared of losing against you? LOL I'm kidding of course
Before giving you my address I want to sum up things in order to avoid any future boring contentious disputes about the agreement.

So do you agree with this :

If Sandra Hüller wins, you will receive 6.5mbtc + 1mbtc from your stake
If Lily Gladstone wins, you won't receive anything I'll keep your 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated but Emma Stone(your jocker) wins, you will receive 1mbtc + 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated and any other actress than Emma Stone (and Lily Gladstone) wins, you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)
If Sandra Hüller is nominated and Emma Stone wins or any other actress (except Lily Gladstone), you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)

Are you ok with that bro?

Why would anyone assume that you were scared? Your Lily Gladstone is very much praised by the critics, she is the predicited winner for best actress and you are the escrow for this bet. I should be the one who should be afraid hehhehehe.

In any case, yes I agree. Your latest proposal is only a repitition of the original proposal that I have discussed with you.

Send address and I will send you 1mbtc as soon as the fees are low. I will use my campaign payment for the bet to show that I have received the coins from the manager and sent coins to you.

Ok dude, here is my address for your 1mbtc stake : bc1q8rsz94pfk32x6ukrxkq7hh74trfunla6evy53m
Unfortunately mining fees have lowered since yesterday but they're still high. I hope you will be able to send the amount before 23th January, day of the Oscar Nominations Announcement though. If the transaction hasn't been mined before this day it's not a problem as long as it had been sent.

I am quite certain the fees will be low before January 23. I already have the incoming transaction for me waiting to be confirmed. I will send 1mbtc to you immediately once the coins are confirmed and available.

@Rikafip. Have you watched Killers of the Flower Moon already?

Also, anyone who has watched Poor Things, please no spoilers and no hype. I might want my expectations to be low to like the movie hehehehe.

[slaman29]

Sadly, I think above discussions about "hotness of issue" will decide winner for best actress. I'm Asian but last year's Oscar winner for best film was not deserving. I liked the movie but I think it won because it was Asian. Same as best actress. Michelle Yeoh did way better in old films but anyway. I guess I don't need to be afraid of offending anyone since I'm self-offending lol.

@Rikafip. No, I said I cannot watch Oppenheimer 4 times similar to what I did to Tenet where I liked Tenet very much on the second viewing then watched it again 2 more times. On Oppenheimer, I reckon 2 viewings is too much hehehe.

Ah, I understand. I watched Tenet only once and I have no intentions watching it ever again.

I'm ok watching it once too. The thing for me I find modern movies are way too focused on style and complicating. Oppenheimer was "cool" but I like cool until a certain extent after that it's too over the top. Tenet overcomplicated to lead audience into thinking they are "intelligent".

Best Film Oscar should always be to me something that is timeless and yet surprised everyone the first time.

I watched Oppenheimer after I watched Peaky Blinders. I kinda expected the acting!

[FanEagle]

@Rikafip. No, I said I cannot watch Oppenheimer 4 times similar to what I did to Tenet where I liked Tenet very much on the second viewing then watched it again 2 more times. On Oppenheimer, I reckon 2 viewings is too much hehehe.

Ah, I understand. I watched Tenet only once and I have no intentions watching it ever again.

I'm ok watching it once too. The thing for me I find modern movies are way too focused on style and complicating. Oppenheimer was "cool" but I like cool until a certain extent after that it's too over the top. Tenet overcomplicated to lead audience into thinking they are "intelligent".

Best Film Oscar should always be to me something that is timeless and yet surprised everyone the first time.

I watched Oppenheimer after I watched Peaky Blinders. I kinda expected the acting!

I think action and chatting are different things. There isn't that many scenes where something happens at Oppenheimer, it's mainly people talking, it's a story telling for sure but it's just talking people, that's about it, maybe the nuclear explosion is the only thing that may matter, but that's about it.

I believe that Tenet is opposite of that, something is constantly happening, there are so many things that are going on and there is action all around, so it makes you feel alive and you want to watch it again. That difference is style preference, I prefer where actors actually act the hell out of it, I do not like Tom Cruise type of movies, I like movies like marriage story, where it's not action, it's the acting performance that matters and Oppenheimer is a great example of that. This is of course not to say that it's a better movie or anything, movies are personal experience, it's as good as you think it is, and for everyone that's true, there isn't a single true in this, we all have our own truth about it.

[bbc.reporter]

Sadly, I think above discussions about "hotness of issue" will decide winner for best actress. I'm Asian but last year's Oscar winner for best film was not deserving. I liked the movie but I think it won because it was Asian. Same as best actress. Michelle Yeoh did way better in old films but anyway. I guess I don't need to be afraid of offending anyone since I'm self-offending lol.

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

[slaman29]

Sadly, I think above discussions about "hotness of issue" will decide winner for best actress.

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

When I said "hotness of issue" it has nothing to do with beauty (hot). It was about how "hot" the issue related is. Asian was a hot issue and currently so is sci-fi.

That was the beginning of the woke nonsense. I push for rights and recognition but talent and rewarding of talents must be objective.

Think we all agree actually. On that note, I'm preparing to bet on Flower Moon as the winner of Best Picture. 4x odds seems really good. Now the problem only is BTC fee... 400+ satoshi per byte fee

[Saint-loup]

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

So if Lily Gladstone wins, it won't be because the jury likes her and her performance but because a so-called woke lobby bribed them? I hope you won't be a sore loser if you lose, because if you think the winners are actually chosen by a conspiracy, you shouldn't bet. People in the artistic and cinema industry are usually sensitive to minority issues and tend to share left-wing ideas, so they don't need to be bribed by a woke lobby to appreciate movies on these subjects IMO.

[pinggoki]

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

I don't agree with your reasoning for Yeoh winning that award because she's really good in the film Everything, Everywhere, All at Once and to me it feels like you're just hating on people for no reason. I do think though that there's a woke agenda but to insult Yeoh's performance is kind of weird because the film is good overall and you saying that she won because she's Asian is an insult to the whole film and the people behind that, I didn't even find a lot of people that hated the film so there's no way that the award was undeserving.

Shoutout to those that got to the 2.20 odds in Oppenheimer it seems that we have a clear winner now. Is it not a bad thing to bet on all of them if you have the money with just one account? It feels like I can make some money even if I bet on them all or should I just put an all in with the Oppenheimer? Seems like it's been decided who's going to win anyway, might as well make the safe bet.

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

So if Lily Gladstone wins, it won't be because the jury like her and her performance but because a so-called woke lobby bribed them? I hope you won't be a sore loser if you lose, because if you think a conspiracy choose the winners, you shouldn't bet. People in the artistic and cinema industry are usually sensitive to minority issues and tend to share left-wing ideas, so they don't need to be bribed by a woke lobby to appreciate movies on these subjects IMO.

I like to think that this isn't the case but given the current climate in terms of social justice in America, there's probably a hint of woke movement that's going to make the decision not pure but biased because they don't like the idea that they might be on the woke movement's bad side, Oscar's already got that Chris Rock incident so they might just be avoiding backlash.

[bbc.reporter]

I disagree on your hotness issue argument. Similar to what you have speculated, Michelle Yeoh only won as the best actress because she is Asian. It might be again the same argument after the official announcement of each category if Lily Gladstone becomes the most favored nominee. She is an America native and she will be the first in history to win an oscar award for beat actress. The people behind the woke agenda might bribe and try to make this a reality, I reckon.

So if Lily Gladstone wins, it won't be because the jury likes her and her performance but because a so-called woke lobby bribed them? I hope you won't be a sore loser if you lose, because if you think the winners are actually chosen by a conspiracy, you shouldn't bet. People in the artistic and cinema industry are usually sensitive to minority issues and tend to share left-wing ideas, so they don't need to be bribed by a woke lobby to appreciate movies on these subjects IMO.

It cannot be implied that there will be bribes because a jury does not decide the winners hehehe. The winners are determined through votes from all of the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. It includes not only the actors and the directors. This includes writers, producers, sound technicians, cinematographers, art designers and other members.

Similar to what you have mentioned, people in the movie industry are sensitive to left wing ideas and minority issues. If these are the voters and if they follow a certain agenda for next year's awards then I speculate that Lily Gladstone might already be the winner.

In any case, I sent 1mbtc to your escrow address already hehehe.

7582d60b7455e60e0c3d812d582ed9718931473c3119ffe9c65b25846e8f71f4

[Saint-loup]

It cannot be implied that there will be bribes because a jury does not decide the winners hehehe. The winners are determined through votes from all of the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. It includes not only the actors and the directors. This includes writers, producers, sound technicians, cinematographers, art designers and other members.

Similar to what you have mentioned, people in the movie industry are sensitive to left wing ideas and minority issues. If these are the voters and if they follow a certain agenda for next year's awards then I speculate that Lily Gladstone might already be the winner.

In any case, I sent 1mbtc to your escrow address already hehehe.

7582d60b7455e60e0c3d812d582ed9718931473c3119ffe9c65b25846e8f71f4

Thank you for sending your stake, now we will just need to wait few weeks to see it getting confirmed now lol https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/7582d60b7455e60e0c3d812d582ed9718931473c3119ffe9c65b25846e8f71f4
I know a little bit how works the voting system of Oscars but thank you to remind it here, I didn't know how to name the group of voting people actually, but maybe assembly or voting college is more accurate? I don't know but it is what it is, they don't need to be bribed by anyone to vote for political or social movies IMO.

[bbc.reporter]

@Saint-loup. The transaction has confirmed already. Good luck to our bets!

In any case, I watched Maestro and Poor Things already. Carrey Mulligan was very good in taking the role as the wife of Leonard Bernstein. Emma Stone was also very good as a type of Frankenstein creature where thr fetus brain was placed in the mother's head after the mother commited suicide. Do not watch it with children around hehehehehe.

@Rikafip. How was Killers Of The Flower Moon for you?

[Rikafip]

In any case, I watched Maestro and Poor Things already. Carrey Mulligan was very good in taking the role as the wife of Leonard Bernstein. Emma Stone was also very good as a type of Frankenstein creature where thr fetus brain was placed in the mother's head after the mother commited suicide. Do not watch it with children around hehehehehe.

I see Maetro is on Netflix but for some reason I can't force myself to watch it as I am not much interested in the subject, even though I heard from several sources that Bradley Copper did an excellent job there, and I plan to watch Poor Things this week.

@Rikafip. How was Killers Of The Flower Moon for you?

I haven't seen it yet. First problem is that its 3 and a half hours movie, and 2nd is is that during holiday period I have a list of ~20 movies I have to watch every year (8 Harry Potter movies, 3 LOTR + various Christmas classics such as Home Alone, Die Hard, Bad Santa, Elf etc) so i was busy with that. Now that holidays are over I do plan to finally watch it.

[Rikafip]

@ bbc.reporter I just came home from watching Poor Things and I definitely understand why you decided to put some money on Emma Stone as she did an awesome job there. I haven't seen Killers Of The Flower Moon yet (plan is this weekened) but I will be very surprised if Lily Gladstone did a better job. By the way, I just read that she uses she/they pronouns (Lily Gladstone, not Emma Stone) which I am sure is another reason for her being favorite for now.

With that being said, I expected a little bit more from the movie. It was good and I generally liked it, but imho its a little bit overrated when I look at IMdB rating. For me its lets say  ~7.5.

[Rikafip]

I don't see anyone mentiong Golden Globes winners so gonna share the winners in the most important categories as they can (and usually do) affect the Oscar odds. What;s promising is that Barbie won only 1 reward and for (imho) not so important category, "Cinematic and box office achievement".

Best Film (Drama)- Oppenheimer
Best male actor in a film (Drama)- Cilian Murphy
Best female actor in a film (Drama)- Lily Gladstone
Best film – musical or comedy - Poor Things
Best male actor in a film – musical or comedy- Paul Giamatti
Best female actor in a film – musical or comedy - Emma Stone
Best non-English language film - Anatomy of a Fall
Best screenplay for a film -  Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
Best supporting male actor in a film - Robert Downey Jr
Best supporting female actor in a film - Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Here is the full list https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/jan/07/golden-globes-2024-the-full-list-of-winners

[bbc.reporter]

@ bbc.reporter I just came home from watching Poor Things and I definitely understand why you decided to put some money on Emma Stone as she did an awesome job there. I haven't seen Killers Of The Flower Moon yet (plan is this weekened) but I will be very surprised if Lily Gladstone did a better job. By the way, I just read that she uses she/they pronouns (Lily Gladstone, not Emma Stone) which I am sure is another reason for her being favorite for now.

With that being said, I expected a little bit more from the movie. It was good and I generally liked it, but imho its a little bit overrated when I look at IMdB rating. For me its lets say  ~7.5.

Agreed, Emma Stone really has done a very good job for Poor Things hehehehe. However, it might not be as good as Lily Gladstone who has presently become the favorite from 2.05 to 1.46. It appears @Saint-loup will be winning the bet. Congratulations.

It also appears that there might not be a storyline similar Coda for this Academy awards. Oppenheimer went from 1.77 to 1.26. There will still be another month before official Oscar's voting, however. Final odds will not be seen until March 1.

In any case, similar to my Oppenheimer as best picture speculation last year, my next speculation for best picture next year is Dune 2.

[Rikafip]

Agreed, Emma Stone really has done a very good job for Poor Things hehehehe. However, it might not be as good as Lily Gladstone who has presently become the favorite from 2.05 to 1.46. It appears @Saint-loup will be winning the bet. Congratulations.

Its too early to give it up imho as 1.46 still doesn't make a her a huge favorite. If bookies were so sure odds would be under 1.2.

It also appears that there might not be a storyline similar Coda for this Academy awards. Oppenheimer went from 1.77 to 1.26. There will still be another month before official Oscar's voting, however. Final odds will not be seen until March 1.

For that I agree, looks like Oppenheimer has it in the bag as 1.26 is very low considering the fact that nominations are not out yet.

In any case, similar to my Oppenheimer as best picture speculation last year, my next speculation for best picture next year is Dune 2.

Hope that you are right as that would make it a first scifi movie ever that won Best Picture award. Here it comes on March 1st and I can't wait to watch it but before that I will watch the first part again to get myself in the proper mood. 

[Saint-loup]

Agreed, Emma Stone really has done a very good job for Poor Things hehehehe. However, it might not be as good as Lily Gladstone who has presently become the favorite from 2.05 to 1.46. It appears @Saint-loup will be winning the bet. Congratulations.

It also appears that there might not be a storyline similar Coda for this Academy awards. Oppenheimer went from 1.77 to 1.26. There will still be another month before official Oscar's voting, however. Final odds will not be seen until March 1.

In any case, similar to my Oppenheimer as best picture speculation last year, my next speculation for best picture next year is Dune 2.

Fortunately or not, bookmakers don't vote and they are often wrong. If I agreed with them I wouldn't have bet on Gladstone because she was not their favorite, so I won't pretend they are reliable now for predicting accurately this Oscar winner. But to be honest I'm curious to know why they've changed their mind? Lily Gladstone won the Best female actor in a drama but Emma Stone also won the Best female actor in her category (musical or comedy film) so what is their criteria? Is it because her speech was just way better than Stone's one? Or is it because they've been aware of the number of votes for each one?

[ChiBitCTy]

I'm so ticked off at myself for not placing bets for the Golden Globes, so I'll definitely try and get on top of it for the Oscars. I knew that The Bear would take home some trophies, along with of course Succession as well as some of the other winners.  I've watch a lot more television and movies this year so I'm feeling confident I could place some solid bets.

[Rikafip]

But to be honest I'm curious to know why they've changed their mind? Lily Gladstone won the Best female actor in a drama but Emma Stone also won the Best female actor in her category (musical or comedy film) so what is their criteria? Is it because her speech was just way better than Stone's one?

I don't think that speeches can change much (probably not anything) but its more about how much money studio is ready to spend of the Oscar campaigns. In its essecnce, they are not much different than political campaigns where studios hire experts who then make a plan (make parties, extra screenings, classic advertisement etc) and they spend tens of millions of dollars on it.

Every once in a while we probably get a legit winners in one of the major categories but most of the time its all about lobbying, hence such weird choices more often than not.

[Rikafip]

@bbc.reporter I just finished watching Killers of the flower moon and I have to say that I don't understand all the hype around it. It was way too long, it didn't make me care about any character in the movie and worst of all, I don't understand how in hell is Lily Gladstone favorite for Best Actress Oscar. Thinking of it, I don't even understand why should she be nominated in that category as it makes more sense that she gest nominated in Best Supporting Actress category.

Of those that will probably end up getting nominated in Best Picture category I still have to watch Maestro but honestly topic of the movie doesn't really interest me so I guess it will have to wait for some time. 

[bbc.reporter]

Agreed, Emma Stone really has done a very good job for Poor Things hehehehe. However, it might not be as good as Lily Gladstone who has presently become the favorite from 2.05 to 1.46. It appears @Saint-loup will be winning the bet. Congratulations.

It also appears that there might not be a storyline similar Coda for this Academy awards. Oppenheimer went from 1.77 to 1.26. There will still be another month before official Oscar's voting, however. Final odds will not be seen until March 1.

In any case, similar to my Oppenheimer as best picture speculation last year, my next speculation for best picture next year is Dune 2.

Fortunately or not, bookmakers don't vote and they are often wrong. If I agreed with them I wouldn't have bet on Gladstone because she was not their favorite, so I won't pretend they are reliable now for predicting accurately this Oscar winner. But to be honest I'm curious to know why they've changed their mind? Lily Gladstone won the Best female actor in a drama but Emma Stone also won the Best female actor in her category (musical or comedy film) so what is their criteria? Is it because her speech was just way better than Stone's one? Or is it because they've been aware of the number of votes for each one?

But in this game of betting, the sportsbooks have a higher chance of making the correct speculation than being wrong. If they always have gotten it wrong then we can be quite certain that they would be bankrupt hehehe.

In any case, the Hollywood wokefulness agenda and the storylines on minorities being oppressed have pointed to a win for Lily Gladstone. I am not saying that she is a bad actress but there is something more behind her Oscar win than a win for anyone else.

@Rikafip. Yes hehehe. On all the movies I have watched that might be nominated for best picture, the most enjoyable is the Holdovers. This might win for best original screenplay, I reckon.

Also, news update. Final nominations might be announced next week.



Put your pencils down, and pass your ballots to the front. The nominations voting period for the 96th Academy Awards is now closed. The latest influences on the race came from the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, where Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” topped both groups. However, Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” has shown considerable strength, and films such as Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” and Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall” are picking up momentum.

Source https://variety.com/2024/film/columns/oscar-voting-closes-surprises-barbie-saltburn-1235873942/

[Rikafip]

In any case, the Hollywood wokefulness agenda and the storylines on minorities being oppressed have pointed to a win for Lily Gladstone. I am not saying that she is a bad actress but there is something more behind her Oscar win than a win for anyone else.

I just don't understand how can she even be considered in the "Best Actress in a Leading Role" category. Imho she doesn't have enough significance or screen time in the film and if anything, she should be nominated in Best Supporting Actress. If she indeed wins it, it will be the one of the least deserving wins (in that category) in the last 15-20 years.

@Rikafip. Yes hehehe. On all the movies I have watched that might be nominated for best picture, the most enjoyable is the Holdovers. This might win for best original screenplay, I reckon.

I have to agree with you, Holdovers was for me the best movie last year as well and the one I might include on my Christmas list as it has a good replay value. Regarding original screenplay, it will be a fight between them and Anatomy of a Fall and since I like both movies very much, I won't mind if either of those win the award.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I very much agree. If we remove the Hollywood agenda, the politics and judge only from their performances, I think Sandra Hüller gave the best performace. However, we do not know if she will be included in the nominated best actress list hehehe. I wish she will because I would like to lose with her as my bet against @Saint-loup heheheheheh.

Also, agreed on Anatomy of a fall vs. the Holdovers for best original screenplay!

[Rikafip]

If we remove the Hollywood agenda, the politics and judge only from their performances, I think Sandra Hüller gave the best performace. However, we do not know if she will be included in the nominated best actress list hehehe. I wish she will because I would like to lose with her as my bet against @Saint-loup heheheheheh.

No chance in hell that Sandra Huller doesn't get the nomination so no worries about that.

I wish she will because I would like to lose with her as my bet against @Saint-loup heheheheheh.

Haha I bet that you wouldn't mind. She is my personal favorite but I woulnd't mind Emma Stone winning either. As a matter of fact, anyone will do as long as its not Lily Gladstone.


In other news, BAFTA nominations are out. Oppenheimer is the leader with 13 nominations, followed by Poor Things that got 11 and Killers of the Flower Moon with 9. What's inteersting though is that Lily Gladstone didn't get nominated in Best Actress/Best Supporting Actress category. 

Full list https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-68016520

[Saint-loup]

In other news, BAFTA nominations are out. Oppenheimer is the leader with 13 nominations, followed by Poor Things that got 11 and Killers of the Flower Moon with 9. What's inteersting though is that Lily Gladstone didn't get nominated in Best Actress/Best Supporting Actress category.  

Full list https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-68016520

Yes and a very interesting thing is that Sandra Hüller is nominated in both catogeries(leading actress and supporting one).
Bbc.reporter also didn't report it but Emma Stone won the Best actress award of the Critics Choice Awards while Lily Gladstone and Hüller were nominated in this category, so nothing is done for now!
https://www.bafta.org/film/awards/2024-nominations-winners#leading-actress
https://www.bafta.org/film/awards/2024-nominations-winners#supporting-actress

https://www.criticschoice.com/2024/01/15/oppenheimer-wins-best-picture-at-the-29th-annual-critics-choice-awards/
https://www.criticschoice.com/2023/12/13/film-nominations-announced-for-the-29th-annual-critics-choice-awards-hosted-by-chelsea-handler/

I just finished watching Killers of the flower moon and I have to say that I don't understand all the hype around it. It was way too long, it didn't make me care about any character in the movie and worst of all, I don't understand how in hell is Lily Gladstone favorite for Best Actress Oscar. Thinking of it, I don't even understand why should she be nominated in that category as it makes more sense that she gest nominated in Best Supporting Actress category.
~~
I just don't understand how can she even be considered in the "Best Actress in a Leading Role" category. Imho she doesn't have enough significance or screen time in the film and if anything, she should be nominated in Best Supporting Actress. If she indeed wins it, it will be the one of the least deserving wins (in that category) in the last 15-20 years.
~~
Haha I bet that you wouldn't mind. She is my personal favorite but I woulnd't mind Emma Stone winning either. As a matter of fact, anyone will do as long as its not Lily Gladstone.

I will just quote what you said in November because I agree with you, your personal taste is completely irrelevant here.
For example I think the exact opposite of you, I think it would be well deserved for the movie and for herself as well as the (two) standing ovation she got from the audience at the Golden Globes.

All that is completely irrelevant when it comes to personal opinion about a movie. Everything Everywhere All At Once won 7 Oscars last year while I coulnd't even finsih the movie and I probably won't give it another try.

[Rikafip]

For example I think the exact opposite of you, I think it would be well deserved for the movie and for herself as well as the (two) standing ovation she got from the audience at the Golden Globes.

I think that everyone (or at least majority) is aware of the fact that instead of her was a white actress dealing about some other non sensitive stuff, she would never get a leading actress nomination. Sure, we can talk about support category, but she simply doesn't have enough screen time to be considered as a leading role.

They are obviously aware of that in UK, therefore they didn't nominate her for BAFTAhtt while in the Hollywood they still feel guilty over what they did to native americans (and minorities in general) in the past and trying to feel better about themselves this way.

[Saint-loup]

I think that everyone (or at least majority) is aware of the fact that instead of her was a white actress dealing about some other non sensitive stuff, she would never get a leading actress nomination. Sure, we can talk about support category, but she simply doesn't have enough screen time to be considered as a leading role.

They are obviously aware of that in UK, therefore they didn't nominate her for BAFTAhtt while in the Hollywood they still feel guilty over what they did to native americans (and minorities in general) in the past and trying to feel better about themselves this way.

I don't know man, the topic is opened since september and you're the first one, since only 2days, saying she shouldn't be nominated in this category, and I haven't heard of such controversy anywhere else. She is nominated for the best Female Actor in a Leading Role by the Actors Guild for the SAG awards, she won a Golden Globes in a leading role category without any controversy  and bookmakers still seem to think she will get nominated for the Best actress Oscar.
https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-30th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE

[Rikafip]

I don't know man, the topic is opened since september and you're the first one, since only 2days, saying she shouldn't be nominated in this category, and I haven't heard of such controversy anywhere else. She is nominated for the best Female Actor in a Leading Role by the Actors Guild for the SAG awards, she won a Golden Globes in a leading role category without any controversy  and bookmakers still seem to think she will get nominated for the Best actress Oscar.
https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-30th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE

Yeah I know its not a popular opinion, but there are more who think like me (and obviously BAFTA people as well). I would understand if she gets nomination for leading actress despite the low screen time if she has memorable scenes where she outacted everyone else and dominated the screen at the time, but honestly I can't think of a single scene like and its only been a week since I saw the movie. In a year or two no one will remember her performance.

My opinion still stands, that only reason she gets into Lead Actress mix is due the subject and Apple spending God knows how much on the Oscar campaign. That all of course doesn't mean that she won't win an Oscar and that's one of the reasons why that award is lossing its relevance, which in the end is a bad thing for all of us who love movies.

[bbc.reporter]

If we remove the Hollywood agenda, the politics and judge only from their performances, I think Sandra Hüller gave the best performace. However, we do not know if she will be included in the nominated best actress list hehehe. I wish she will because I would like to lose with her as my bet against @Saint-loup heheheheheh.

No chance in hell that Sandra Huller doesn't get the nomination so no worries about that.

I disagree. There are only 5 slots for best actress nominees in the Oscar awards and we cannot underestimate Barbie's Margo Robbie, who might be the voters of the woke agenda's favorite hehehe. We also cannot ignore Fantasia Barrino from the Color Purple who will also be nominated by the voters of the woke agenda. The other leading nominees are Lily Gladstone, Emma Stone, Carey Mulligan and Sandra Hüller. We can be quite certain that Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone will be included. This fight for the last best actress nominee slot will be between Hüller and Mulligan.

[Rikafip]

We can be quite certain that Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone will be included. This fight for the last best actress nominee slot will be between Hüller and Mulligan.

I would add Sandra Huller in that mix of 100% nomination chance (along with Margot Robbie) and imho fight will be between Mulligan and Fantasia Barrino but I think that in the end former will end up getting nominated.

Don't be so pessimistic. Woke agenda is indeed strong in Hollywood but every once in a while they do a right thing and deserving persons get nominated and even win the awards.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. The voters will not ignore Fantasia who is someone who grew up as a minority in America. They will want this representation to be shown during awarding night. It will be very good for the camera hehehehe. Carey Mulligan is a British actress and Sandra Hüller is a German. Both of them foreigners and one of them might not be included.

In any case, the announcement for the official nominees is coming, we will know them very soon hehe.



After months of campaigning and debating, awards watchers are about to have the biggest piece of that puzzle when the Oscar nominations are finally announced on Tuesday, Jan. 23, at 8:30 a.m. ET/5:30 a.m. PT.

Source https://ew.com/how-to-watch-2024-oscar-nominations-livestream-8536115

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. The voters will not ignore Fantasia who is someone who grew up as a minority in America. They will want this representation to be shown during awarding night.
Carey Mulligan is a British actress and Sandra Hüller is a German. Both of them foreigners and one of them might not be included.

Yet Fantasia didn't get nomination while both Sandra Huller and Carey Mulligan did. I told you that you are too pessimistic and that there's no way that Sandra doesn't get nominated. Woke agenda is strong, but its not that strong to base nominations solely on that factor.


So, nominations have finally be announced and as expected Oppenheimer leads with 13, followed by Poor Things that got 11 and Killers of the Flower Moon with 10.

Full list https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/oscar-nominations-2024-list-1235877798/

[Saint-loup]

I'm a bit surprised to see Poor Things with such number of nominations while not being much appreciated by the critics and the audience. Personally I don't like very much this movie  because it is neither funny nor dramatic, and uses too many visual effects for such a story. I hope it won't get many awards. Anyway now bookmakers think Emma Stone has more chances to win the Best actress award than Lily Gladstone.

 

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. It appears that you might be correct! It also appears that Emma Stone is becoming the favorite and adjusted Lily Gladstone's odds back to 2.10 from 1.45. What are the oddsmakers speculating on this? What caused this adjustment? Are they speculating that Emma Stone will win Bafta? I reckon Sandra Hüller might be the more popular vote for best actress in Bafta.

I speculate that if Sandra Hüller wins, the adjustment on the odds for her will be very big.

@Saint-loup. Emma Stone has a higher chance, however, only a small difference. Many things will change after the official voting for the winners on February 22-27. Information always leak and the oddsmakers are very quick to adjust.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. It appears that you might be correct! It also appears that Emma Stone is becoming the favorite and adjusted Lily Gladstone's odds back to 2.10 from 1.45. What are the oddsmakers speculating on this? What caused this adjustment? Are they speculating that Emma Stone will win Bafta? I reckon Sandra Hüller might be the more popular vote for best actress in Bafta.

Who knows, oodsmakers work in myserious ways. 

But seriously, the more I think about it, the more I am feel that Lily Gladstone wins the Oscar, despite the change in the odds. Maybe some of your pessimism spread on me as well.

I speculate that if Sandra Hüller wins, the adjustment on the odds for her will be very big.

Was like that in the past? I am asking because I can't remember if BAFTA affected Oscar odds that much as after all its UK award, not US which is very different and visible from the fact that they didn't even bother to nominate Lily Gladstone.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. On bookmaking the Oscar awards, oddsmakers might adjust the odds based on rumors, information leaks or maybe how the top critics rate movies and performances. Poor Things was released late on 2023 because of the writers' strike in Hollywood. It might have taken a longer time for Poor Things' odds to be included in the bookmakers' adjustedment.

On Sandra Hüller, I am not quite sure. Also, another question would be how many actors and actresses that have won in Bafta, also won in the same category in the Oscars? I am quite surprised that Paul Giamatti's odds went from 12.00 to 2.90. This is a big adjustment.

[bbc.reporter]

I have a speculation that Oppenheimer will win most of their awards in Bafta and it might cause disappointment for the fans of this movie in the Oscars. The Oscars voters might vote differently and distribute the awards wider on the major categories.

I reckon if Christopher Nolan wins for best director then the best picture might go to The Holdovers. If someone else wins for best director then best actor will go to Paul Giamatti and best picture will go to Oppenheimer. It might be only one award for each movie for the major categories. The voters might avoid 2 or more to be won by the same movie.

[Rikafip]

Also, another question would be how many actors and actresses that have won in Bafta, also won in the same category in the Oscars?

Last year they had different winners in all actor categories while year before that (2022) the only one who won both Bafta and Oscar for same role was Will Smith for King Richard. So yeah, I guess its pretty common to have diferent winners.

I am quite surprised that Paul Giamatti's odds went from 12.00 to 2.90. This is a big adjustment.

Hah, that is indeed a big readjustment but even though I would like for him to win, betting on Cillian Murphy still makes more sesen. I just don't see how he looses an Oscar this year. 

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. However, if it is more common for the the Bafta best actor winner to be different from the Oscar best actor winner and also with this big readjustment on the odds, there might be an argument that Paul Giamatti certainly has a chance. But the chance to bet is gone already because 12.00 was more than the fair odds for Giamatti against Cillian Murphy.

On the odds for best movie, Poor Things has readjusted to 12.00 from 15.00.

In any case, I have bet on the Holdovers hehehe. Similar to what I have already mentioned, if Christopher Nolan was voted for best director, I speculate the voters will distribute the award for best picture to another movie. It will be a stronger argument if Cillian Murphy also wins for best actor.

The Holdovers might have 2 awards, best original screenplay and best picture.

[Rikafip]

and also with this big readjustment on the odds, there might be an argument that Paul Giamatti certainly has a chance. But the chance to bet is gone already because 12.00 was more than the fair odds for Giamatti against Cillian Murphy.

Yep. At these odds, I woulnd't put my money on Giamatti as risk to reward ratio ain't good anymore.

The Holdovers might have 2 awards, best original screenplay and best picture.

They might and I hope they will win at least one, but they might end up not getting neither of those two. I could see Anatomy of a Fall winning the one for best screenplay (I pefer The Holdovers, but I wouldn't mind anatomy winniner) and of course we all know who is the main favorite for the best picture one.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I would argue if it was in Bafta or a European award for best original screenplay, Anatomy of a fall would be the winner. However, in the Oscar awards where much of the voters are Americans, I reckon the odds being offered by the sportsbooks are implying the chances of Holdovers and Anatomy correctly.

If the Holdovers win best movie, this will be very much similar to Green Book and Coda heheh. I do not remember the social or political issues when these movies won, however, the voters wanted a feel good movie.

[bbc.reporter]

News update.

Christopher Nolan has won the award for best director in the Director's Guild Awards. This strengthens his chance to win the Oscar award for best director and this also might strengthen my speculation that the best picture might not be given to Nolan by the voters hehehe.

There might be some shaking heads, however, there were upsets that have occurred before in Oscar best picture predictions. These movies were Green Book, Moonlight, Parasite and CODA.



"Oppenheimer” director Christopher Nolan, Christopher Storer of FX’s “The Bear” and Peter Hoar of HBO’s “The Last of Us” were the top winners Saturday night at the Directors Guild of America‘s 76th annual DGA Awards.

The DGA win seals Nolan’s frontrunner position to land the director Oscar at the March 10 Academy Awards. Celine Song took home the DGA medallion for first-time director for her much-praised A24 drama “Past Lives.” “Guys, this is so amazing,” Song told the crowd.

Read in full https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/directors-guild-awards-winners-2024-list-1235901440/

[Rikafip]

This strengthens his chance to win the Oscar award for best director and this also might strengthen my speculation that the best picture might not be given to Nolan by the voters hehehe.

I don't understand why would that lower the chances for Oppenheimer to win Best Picture Oscar. Care to elaborate? 


In other news, BAFTA film awards were yesterday and as expected, Oppenheimer dominated with 7 awards, followed by Poor Things with 5, Zone of Interest with 3 and Holdovers with 2 awards. Here is the loist with all the winners https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/feb/18/baftas-2024-the-complete-list-of-winners.

Interestingly, Anatomy of a Fall won the best original screenplay award while American Fiction (I finally saw it the other day and I liked it) won for the best adapted one.

[bbc.reporter]

This strengthens his chance to win the Oscar award for best director and this also might strengthen my speculation that the best picture might not be given to Nolan by the voters hehehe.

I don't understand why would that lower the chances for Oppenheimer to win Best Picture Oscar. Care to elaborate?  

I am only speculating that because we have witnessed that there were some years where the best picture winner for the Bafta and the Oscar awards were different then this might be one of those years. Also, because Oppenheimer is for certain win best actor and best director and other awards, I speculate that the voters might have something different for Christopher Nolan. He can win for best director or best picture, however, not the both of these categories heheheh. This year might be another unpredictable like CODA and Green Book.

[dansus021]

I know this is an old topic but I just barely knew that there was an Oscar award bet, especially with movies and the actors hahha. So gambling is literally pushed into anything hahahha, I just knew that there is a gambling for president and vice president but now an Oscar;D.

But like everyone else yesterday I watched Oppenheimer and this movie is actually good the soundtrack is also good I mean I gonna definitely pick this than a Barbie movie heheheh But this is just my opinion.

[OgNasty]

I know this is an old topic but I just barely knew that there was an Oscar award bet, especially with movies and the actors hahha. So gambling is literally pushed into anything hahahha, I just knew that there is a gambling for president and vice president but now an Oscar;D.

But like everyone else yesterday I watched Oppenheimer and this movie is actually good the soundtrack is also good I mean I gonna definitely pick this than a Barbie movie heheheh But this is just my opinion.

I saw the title and thought to myself… Where are you all finding bets on stuff like this? I see these types of threads but I never see stuff like this or the presidential election on stake. Maybe I need to look around a bit more or something. Not that I would gamble on the Oscars but maybe something else interesting.

[bbc.reporter]

@dansus021. How long have you been in Duelbit's campaign? Betting on movie, music and tv awards has always been there in the betting specials category.

@OgNasty. It is in the politics and entertainment category in stake.com for a long time also. This is also very common for sportsbooks.

I have been creating the thread for the Oscar awards for 5 years, I reckon.

There was also Game of Thrones season and episode outcomes betting in this subforum. It was a very popular thread hehe.

[Rikafip]

He can win for best director or best picture, however, not the both of these categories heheheh. This year might be another unpredictable like CODA and Green Book.

Oscar for Best Picture goes to produces of the movie, not to director. But I do agree that its a pretty common thing for a movie not to win both Best Picture and Best Director Oscars. For example, in the last 20 years, 8 movies won both of those awards so there are solid chances that Nolan doesn't win his Oscar this year.

[pawanjain]

These are the odds offered by the sportsbooks. These movies, directors and later actresses, actors and other categories added are not yet official from the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. However, if you are a movie expert or a couch potato, you might already know which of these directors and movies has a chance to win hehehe. Share your knowledge!

More important thing, where can we bet on the 2024 Oscars award?
On which sites do you prefer to bet as i don't think the majority of the sports betting site will list these bets.

The most probable date for the Oscar award is 10th March 2024 while the submission date of different categories entries will be somewhere around the middle or end of November this year.

We do have it on freebitco.in which is my favorite place to bet in events. My pick for best director would be Nolan as I personally like films directed by him.
Oppenheimer was one of his pretty good movies and so I think the best director as well as best movie would be both of these to receive the Oscars.

[bbc.reporter]

He can win for best director or best picture, however, not the both of these categories heheheh. This year might be another unpredictable like CODA and Green Book.

Oscar for Best Picture goes to produces of the movie, not to director. But I do agree that its a pretty common thing for a movie not to win both Best Picture and Best Director Oscars. For example, in the last 20 years, 8 movies won both of those awards so there are solid chances that Nolan doesn't win his Oscar this year.

Yes but Christopher Nolan is also one of the producers of Oppenheimer. However, this is my big prediction for the 2025 Oscar awards for best picture and the best director categories. It will be one of the movies that will win both categories. The title of this move you know already heehhe. It is Dune 2 for best picture and Denis Villenueve for best director.

This Frenchman created some of my favorite movies with the best cinematography. Sicario, Arrival, Blade Runner 2049 and Dune 1. Everyone should certainly watch them. He also directed good mystery and crime thrillers.

[Rikafip]

Yes but Christopher Nolan is also one of the producers of Oppenheimer.

Ah yes, you are right. I completely forgot that he is usually also producer of his movies meaning he will most likely go home with at least 1 Oscar.

However, this is my big prediction for the 2025 Oscar awards for best picture and the best director categories. It will be one of the movies that will win both categories. The title of this move you know already heehhe. It is Dune 2 for best picture and Denis Villenueve for best director.

I have high expectations from Dune 2, and if it wins Best Picture Oscar, it will be the first science fiction movie to do that. Sounds unbelievable, but imho that's one more good reason for the win. Here it comes next Thursday, I will probably go watch it immediately on the first day. 

This Frenchman created some of my favorite movies with the best cinematography. Sicario, Arrival, Blade Runner 2049 and Dune 1. Everyone should certainly watch them. He also directed good mystery and crime thrillers.

All good movies expect Arrival, I didn't like that one at all. By the way, he will most likely direct Dune 3 as well (working on the script as we speak). 

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. Yes the voters will distribute the awards and also consider the rumor that the Oscar comittee does not like Christopher Nolan.

On Dune 2, agreed. It will be very much similar to the Return of the King where it was the first fantasy movie that has won an Oscar award. Also, Dune appears to be less of a scifi story and more of a political story about families who are competing for power hehehe.

Also yes, Dune 3 will be about the book on Dune Messiah, where Paul Atreides kills 61 billion people for his jihad. This Dune series by Denis Villeneuve might not have a cheerful ending. This will certainly be not for children.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. Yes the voters will distribute the awards and also consider the rumor that the Oscar comittee does not like Christopher Nolan.

Why do you think they don't like him? As far as I am concerned, so far he didn't make an Oscar worthy movie and far better directors than him never won one (Kubrick, Tarantino, Hitchock, Lumet... etc) so I ddidn't see him experiencing any injustice yet.

On Dune 2, agreed. It will be very much similar to the Return of the King where it was the first fantasy movie that has won an Oscar award.

Hope so, but still far too early to tell as year just started and God knows what kind of movies will appear.

When it comes to rotk, I personally believe that movie winning so many Oscars was sort of compensation for previous two not winning as many as they should. For me (big fan of books long before movies were made), Fellowship of the Ring was by far the best movie in that trilogy, it was exactly as I imagined when I was reading the books.

[STT]

Oppenheimer seems the best bet to favor this time around for likelihood of a win.  There seems to be a correlation across a few award shows which makes it easier also.

also consider the rumor that the Oscar comittee does not like Christopher Nolan.

I wouldnt take that too seriously as a bias to that person in particular unless excluded without reason from nominations.   The amount of eligible voters increased to over 9000 about 50% increase in five years.  I'm not sure why so many new Oscar voters would appear like that but I think probably means less old guard attitudes and more respect given to unique talents outside of big picture reputation and box office figures etc.

Ive read oscar voters who are Directors then vote on the Directors category but any of the Oscar voters can vote for the Best picture so that is the most open, I guess the directors could all decide they dont go with Nolan's style on things.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. Yes the voters will distribute the awards and also consider the rumor that the Oscar comittee does not like Christopher Nolan.

Why do you think they don't like him? As far as I am concerned, so far he didn't make an Oscar worthy movie and far better directors than him never won one (Kubrick, Tarantino, Hitchock, Lumet... etc) so I ddidn't see him experiencing any injustice yet.

On Dune 2, agreed. It will be very much similar to the Return of the King where it was the first fantasy movie that has won an Oscar award.

Hope so, but still far too early to tell as year just started and God knows what kind of movies will appear.

When it comes to rotk, I personally believe that movie winning so many Oscars was sort of compensation for previous two not winning as many as they should. For me (big fan of books long before movies were made), Fellowship of the Ring was by far the best movie in that trilogy, it was exactly as I imagined when I was reading the books.

Only speculation from the articles written about the Oscar snubs that have occured. However, I agree with you. Those movies that he directed before might not yet be the correct time for him to be given the most valuable award in filmmaking.

On the Lord of the Rings, similar to the 3 books being really 1 book that were divided by the publishers, the movie was also only 1 movie divided into 3. The voters waited for the whole 3 movies to finish before giving their decision. It would be very awkward to give the first 2 many awards then nothing more to give for the 3rd movie hehehee.

Dune will certainly be in a similar situation because these 2 movies are based on 1 book. The voters are only waiting for the ending hehehe. My prediction, the Frenchman will win best director and best movie on 2025. The early reviews on rottentomatoes.com is 97% with a fresh pick logo.

[el kaka22]

There needs to be some sort of change on how they decide on the winner. We have seen some very high quality movies that won it, but we have seen some super high popularity movies that won it as well, there needs to be some balance between the two.

I mean it is obvious that there are obvious snubs, like for example Margot Robbie not even being a nominee, I would understand not winning that is perfectly fine, but not even being a nominee? But at the same time Oppenheimer has been getting almost every single award up until now, which means that if Oscars do not give the best movie to them, it would create a lot of controversy.

This could be good or bad based on two things, would be bad because it would mean people would not give enough credit for Oscars and enough of these stupid decisions and Oscars will lose its attention, whereas it would be good because it would create headlines and make Oscars a big news once again, for something bad maybe, but I bet there will be some people who will support it just because humanity likes to argue.

[Rikafip]

Ive read oscar voters who are Directors then vote on the Directors category but any of the Oscar voters can vote for the Best picture so that is the most open, I guess the directors could all decide they dont go with Nolan's style on things.

Its true, directors vote for "best director" category, actors in "best actor/actresses" awards etc while all members of academy have the right to vote for the main award, "best picture".

This could be good or bad based on two things, would be bad because it would mean people would not give enough credit for Oscars and enough of these stupid decisions and Oscars will lose its attention

The bolded part already happened, Oscar award is loosing its signifance each year and I don't see this trend changing anytime soon. If anything, I expect things to become even worse.

The early reviews on rottentomatoes.com is 97% with a fresh pick logo.

Yep, initial reviews are very good so far and I am getting seriously hyped. The only thing I have to decide whether to go watch Dune on Thursday or wait for the weekend. Or maybe I watch both days. 

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. Watch it a weekday if you are going alone, I reckon. However, if you are watching it with friends, it is much better and fun on a weekend where you fall in line and talk, buy your drink and popcorn while waiting for your schedule hehehe.

@el kaka22. The snub on Margo Robbie was the correct decision by the voters. Barbie movie is a big commercial to sell toys to kids that make them feel they need to be another person to be happy.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. Watch it a weekday if you are going alone, I reckon. However, if you are watching it with friends, it is much better and fun on a weekend where you fall in line and talk, buy your drink and popcorn while waiting for your schedule hehehe.

I think first watching will be with my buddies and 2nd (if movie is as good as I think it will be) with my wife. Either way, can't wait, its been many years I saw the same movie twice in cinema.


For those interested, The Zone of Interest in a good quality is finally out in "video stores". I have a very high expectations from this one, very interesting take on the whole concentration camp thing. Despite having 5 Oscar nominations I still kinda feel that movie is somewhat under the radar. 

[Saint-loup]

I don't know man, the topic is opened since september and you're the first one, since only 2days, saying she shouldn't be nominated in this category, and I haven't heard of such controversy anywhere else. She is nominated for the best Female Actor in a Leading Role by the Actors Guild for the SAG awards, she won a Golden Globes in a leading role category without any controversy  and bookmakers still seem to think she will get nominated for the Best actress Oscar.
https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-30th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE

Finally, as you could see in the link below, Lily Gladstone won the best actress in a leading role award of the Actors Guild against Emma Stone, Margot Robbie, Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan.(Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role category, precisely)
Bokkmakers have then lowered their odds for her victory and they now think she has equal chances to win it as Emma Stone. Nothing seems to be done up to now.
https://www.sagaftra.org/outstanding-film-and-television-performances-honored-30th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE

[AmoreJaz]

I don't know man, the topic is opened since september and you're the first one, since only 2days, saying she shouldn't be nominated in this category, and I haven't heard of such controversy anywhere else. She is nominated for the best Female Actor in a Leading Role by the Actors Guild for the SAG awards, she won a Golden Globes in a leading role category without any controversy  and bookmakers still seem to think she will get nominated for the Best actress Oscar.
https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-30th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE

Finally, Lily Gladstone won the best actress award of the Actors Guild against Emma Stone, Margot Robbie, Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan.
Bokkmakers have then lowered their odds for her victory and they now think she has equal chances to win it as Emma Stone.

That's interesting! The odds really changed, now bookies are seeing that Gladstone has equal chance with Stone to get such award. Few more days and we will see how this event goes this year. Waiting for another 'slapgate' incident during big awards like this. Maybe, that's one reason why like Academy Awards got popular because of Will Smith, not the winning actors/actresses. As people search for that particular incident. Not because who won those coveted awards. 

[STT]

People love drama for sure, the slap was kind of beyond belief like a movie scene in itself.  Kudos to Mr. Smith for saving the Oscars with pure attitude and he wasn't wrong in that the joke wasn't funny.    

for president and vice president but now an Oscar;D.

But like everyone else yesterday I watched Oppenheimer and this movie is actually good the soundtrack is also good I mean I gonna definitely pick this than a Barbie movie heheheh But this is just my opinion.

Gambling for everything, if we can bet about marbles and pennies against the wall we can bet on anything.  Oscars is a big deal that people talk about for years after with what won how big, it matters.     We perhaps could use a playlist for music category to decide but as with every category its hard to realize their particular perspective on what defines a winning pick.   Usually there is an extra element to the choices like a cause of some kind or greater theme imo

[bbc.reporter]

I don't know man, the topic is opened since september and you're the first one, since only 2days, saying she shouldn't be nominated in this category, and I haven't heard of such controversy anywhere else. She is nominated for the best Female Actor in a Leading Role by the Actors Guild for the SAG awards, she won a Golden Globes in a leading role category without any controversy  and bookmakers still seem to think she will get nominated for the Best actress Oscar.
https://www.sagaftra.org/nominations-announced-30th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE

Finally, Lily Gladstone won the best actress award of the Actors Guild against Emma Stone, Margot Robbie, Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan.
Bokkmakers have then lowered their odds for her victory and they now think she has equal chances to win it as Emma Stone.

I want Emma Stone to win hehehehehee! The Hollywood agenda should not be victorious!

I am onlyjoking. I reckon this is Lily Gladstone's oscar already, congratulations.

@Rikafip. Watch it a weekday if you are going alone, I reckon. However, if you are watching it with friends, it is much better and fun on a weekend where you fall in line and talk, buy your drink and popcorn while waiting for your schedule hehehe.

I think first watching will be with my buddies and 2nd (if movie is as good as I think it will be) with my wife. Either way, can't wait, its been many years I saw the same movie twice in cinema.


For those interested, The Zone of Interest in a good quality is finally out in "video stores". I have a very high expectations from this one, very interesting take on the whole concentration camp thing. Despite having 5 Oscar nominations I still kinda feel that movie is somewhat under the radar. 

You watch with your buddies first then on the second viewing the wife does not know that you watched the movie with your buddies already and you pretend that everything is new for you?

In any case, the odds on Oppenheimer for best picture was reduced to 1.08. This occurred after the voting process finished on February 27. I appears that Christopher Nolan might win best director and best movie.

[dansus021]

I saw the title and thought to myself… Where are you all finding bets on stuff like this? I see these types of threads but I never see stuff like this or the presidential election on stake. Maybe I need to look around a bit more or something. Not that I would gamble on the Oscars but maybe something else interesting.

For the presidential election, I knew it from my friend and the gambling sites are local But i don't know if this exists in other sites.

How long have you been in Duelbit's campaign? Betting on movie, music and tv awards has always been there in the betting specials category.

I am just new here and Duelbit has a lot of games but I only tried a few haha like of course my favorite games are Crash Mines and Plinko. So gambling like really push into anything nowadays right 

[Rikafip]

Finally, Lily Gladstone won the best actress award of the Actors Guild against Emma Stone, Margot Robbie, Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan.

SAG is US organisation, so no surprise that Lily won the award.  

Kudos to Mr. Smith for saving the Oscars with pure attitude and he wasn't wrong in that the joke wasn't funny.    

Will didn't show attitude, he just showed that his wife is in a total control over him. He was even initially laughing at the joke and only after he saw her face he decided to act. By the way, that joke was actually a compliment to her as Demi Moore was hot af in GI Jane. He doesn't mind other guys screwing his wife, but he minds some jokes lol.

You watch with your buddies first then on the second viewing the wife does not know that you watched the movie with your buddies already and you pretend that everything is new for you?

Lol of course not. I am not a wimp like Will Smith that I am afraid of my wife.

[Saint-loup]

Finally, Lily Gladstone won the best actress award of the Actors Guild against Emma Stone, Margot Robbie, Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan.

SAG is US organisation, so no surprise that Lily won the award.  

Yes for sure, but what is the nationality of bookmakers' odds providers? Are they americans too? Because for some reasons they now think another time that Lily Gladstone has more chances to win the Oscar than Emma Stone and than few days ago while they think the opposite for Emma Stone.

Will didn't show attitude, he just showed that his wife is in a total control over him. He was even initially laughing at the joke and only after he saw her face he decided to act. By the way, that joke was actually a compliment to her as Demi Moore was hot af in GI Jane. He doesn't mind other guys screwing his wife, but he minds some jokes lol.

Lol of course not. I am not a wimp like Will Smith that I am afraid of my wife.

Yes his reaction 2 years ago was very confusing. But her wife has been very very sad when she lost her hair from what I heard and maybe she tried to commit suicide or something like that, so this situation could have been very disturbing for him.

[Rikafip]

Yes for sure, but what is the nationality of bookmakers' odds providers?

I wasn't commenting on the odds, I merely shared what I think is the main reason Lily Gladstone won the SAG award, while non-US awards are ignoring her. After all, Oscars are US oriented award so no wonder that themes/agendas that are important to them have higher chance for winning.

But her wife has been very very sad when she lost her hair from what I heard and maybe she tried to commit suicide or something like that, so this situation could have been very disturbing for him.

Jada is a total mess and unfortunately managed to ruin once very likeable and charming guy. But that's what you get when you are a wimp and let a manipulative woman make a total fool out of you infront of the whole world.

[dansus021]

for president and vice president but now an Oscar;D.
But like everyone else yesterday I watched Oppenheimer and this movie is actually good the soundtrack is also good I mean I gonna definitely pick this than a Barbie movie heheheh But this is just my opinion.

Gambling for everything, if we can bet about marbles and pennies against the wall we can bet on anything.  Oscars is a big deal that people talk about for years after with what won how big, it matters.     We perhaps could use a playlist for music category to decide but as with every category its hard to realize their particular perspective on what defines a winning pick.   Usually there is an extra element to the choices like a cause of some kind or greater theme imo

hahahaha yeah when there is a choices there is a gambling on there hahahah

[bbc.reporter]

The Oscar awards presentations for this year of 2024 has finished.

@Rikafip. It appears I was very much mistaken. Oppenheimer won all of the awards on the major categories where they were nominated. Best picture and best director go to go to Christopher Nolan and best actor goes to Cilian Murphy hehe.

@Saint-loup. There is no winner in our bet. Kindly return the coins to bc1q2cxuaksp48qmdpm6r6k596yd2vvxnp9z9wunre thank you very much.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. It appears I was very much mistaken. Oppenheimer won all of the awards on the major categories where they were nominated. Best picture and best director go to go to Christopher Nolan and best actor goes to Cilian Murphy hehe.

It could have been worse, like for example Lily winning an Oscar.   Another thing, if you remember, I said that I could see Anatomy of a Fall winning the best original screenplay and it happened in the end, confirming Bafta award.

There is no winner in our bet. Kindly return the coins to bc1q2cxuaksp48qmdpm6r6k596yd2vvxnp9z9wunre thank you very much.

Now you got me confused. Didn't you bet on Emma Stone winning an Oscar, mening you won the bet?

[STT]

Oppenheimer

A good bet on the basis of the underlying event and the film being recognized as a good one.  Oscars tends to favor the big emotional or theme based films and this event around one of the most destructive horrific acts of humanity during a time of world war is going to be as big as they come.   I prefer the underdog bets but this was a fair winner.

I noticed an article outlying how the 2025 Oscar best film award onwards can only go to theatre releases in the majority in future, this is to stop the introduction of online film eclipsing the 'real deal' releases which of course support the theatre network across the world.   The wider release dates specified to qualify actually extends upto mid January before cutting off whether a film qualifies as theatre or just general release not applicable for Oscars.
   Thats fair in supporting its own main industry for the award and revenue an Oscar gives after but it does open up the odds of another online award ceremony recognising any film on any medium even totally digital releases, due to costs these arent going away.

I think the gambling industry might like that Oscars will ignore even some large productions that might skip theatre release, perhaps there is an opportunity in that growth sector.  A film can be tight on its costs but due to audience appeal become massive afterwards hence I do reckon a big hit eventually will be excluded from Oscars from this new rule.

[Rikafip]

I think the gambling industry might like that Oscars will ignore even some large productions that might skip theatre release, perhaps there is an opportunity in that growth sector.  A film can be tight on its costs but due to audience appeal become massive afterwards hence I do reckon a big hit eventually will be excluded from Oscars from this new rule.

No big productions will skip theater release, as they will just adjust to any rules in order to qualify. Thing is, if you spend ~$200M on a movie, no way in hell you won't do whatever its needed in order to to get some Oscars as they usually mean more money earned.

After all, even up until now, all movies had to be released in a US theater for at least 1 week, so this is nothing new and it didn't stop movies that porimarily went on streaming sites from winning Oscars.

[Saint-loup]

@Saint-loup. There is no winner in our bet. Kindly return the coins to bc1q2cxuaksp48qmdpm6r6k596yd2vvxnp9z9wunre thank you very much.

Well it's sad to wait such a long time and spend tx fees for nothing, since no one has won anything at the end but it is what it is.
I just sent you back 1mbtc to the address you ask for :
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/c7e17d92eedd8240d80235f2f59cc07b478216cc24eae3c3c92d7b63cab60c93

Now you got me confused. Didn't you bet on Emma Stone winning an Oscar, mening you won the bet?

No the bet was on Sandra Hüller, but we agreed to replace her by Emma Stone with a different payout, if she didn't qualify to avoid wasting time and money for nothing precisely.

Why it would be cancelled bro, you think I start to be scared of losing against you? LOL I'm kidding of course
Before giving you my address I want to sum up things in order to avoid any future boring contentious disputes about the agreement.

So do you agree with this :

If Sandra Hüller wins, you will receive 6.5mbtc + 1mbtc from your stake
If Lily Gladstone wins, you won't receive anything I'll keep your 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated but Emma Stone(your jocker) wins, you will receive 1mbtc + 1mbtc
If Sandra Hüller is not nominated and any other actress than Emma Stone (and Lily Gladstone) wins, you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)
If Sandra Hüller is nominated and Emma Stone wins or any other actress (except Lily Gladstone), you will receive 1mbtc(your stake back)

Are you ok with that bro?

[STT]

I agree big money films wont be altered in their course especially but still its a detail that matters as not every film not even the Oscar winners is that size of production and cost.

Theres an influence from their change in rules, its small print that lawyers will have to examine but its more then that basic 1 week now.  The theatre shares of a few major indebted companies might benefit a bit from that additional requirement rolling out.  Im not a big fan of how expensive its gotten nowadays I was always just a casual low key theater goer in the 'cheap seats' type of way.
   Theres a bit of conflict and fight for revenue over the various ways a film can be released, its part of technology kinda related to the whole online thing we're part of imo but sure there's nothing like a proper theater release in that exact way.

Oscars' new streaming rule explained - and how it will impact the Best Picture award
The Academy Awards has new rules that expanded the theatrical requirement for films to qualify for Best Picture this year.


This expanded theatrical run for Best Picture contenders had to have been finished by Jan. 24.

Eligibility for other categories were not be affected by this new requirement.

“As we do every year, we have been reviewing and assessing our theatrical eligibility requirements for the Oscars,” academy chief executive Bill Kramer and academy president Janet Yang said in a joint statement.

“In support of our mission to celebrate and honor the arts and sciences of moviemaking, it is our hope that this expanded theatrical footprint will increase the visibility of films worldwide and encourage audiences to experience our artform in a theatrical setting. Based on many conversations with industry partners, we feel that this evolution benefits film artists and movie lovers alike.”


They expanded the theatrical requirement for films to qualify for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards. So films needed to have spent more time in the theaters to qualify for the coveted nomination.

Under the new rules, a film needs to continue its run beyond the previous requirement — a one-week theatrical release in one of six U.S. qualifying cities — to be eligible for Best Picture, according to the L.A. Times.

Films need to add an additional theatrical run of seven days, consecutive or nonconsecutive, and it must happen in 10 of the top 50 U.S. markets, no later than 45 days after the initial release in 2024. (Non-U.S. territory releases can count toward two of the 10 markets.)

Heres the winners in a list:

• Best Picture: Oppenheimer
  
  Best Actress: Emma Stone - Poor Things
  
  Best Actor: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
  
  Best Director: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
  
  Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
  
  Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
  
  Original Song: Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell - What Was I Made For? from Barbie
  
  Original Score - Ludwig Göransson - Oppenheimer
  
  Cinematography: Hoyte van Hoytema - Oppenheimer
  
  Achievement in Film Editing: Jennifer Lame - Oppenheimer
  
  Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihale - Poor Things
  
  Make-up and Hairstyling: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston - Poor Things
  
  Achievement in Costume Design: Holly Waddington - Poor Things
  
  Original Screenplay: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari - Anatomy Of A Fall
  
  Adapted Screenplay: Cord Jefferson - American Fiction
  
  International Feature Film - The Zone of Interest from United Kingdom

Great speech by Cillian Murphy considering where he is from, the context of everything he said is eternally true.

[bbc.reporter]

@Saint-loup. There is no winner in our bet. Kindly return the coins to bc1q2cxuaksp48qmdpm6r6k596yd2vvxnp9z9wunre thank you very much.

Well it's sad to wait such a long time and spend tx fees for nothing, since no one has won anything at the end but it is what it is.
I just sent you back 1mbtc to the address you ask for :
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/transaction/c7e17d92eedd8240d80235f2f59cc07b478216cc24eae3c3c92d7b63cab60c93

Agreed! However, on the present situation, a 3 satoshi fee that you paid will take many years before this will be confirmed hehehehee. In any case, I increased the fee to be included on the next block. Also, thank you and see you next year hehehe.

@Rikafip. You were right on Anatomy of the fall for best original screenplay, I was very much in love with the Holdovers.

Dune 2 will be next year's best director, best picture and best adapted screenplay winners!

[Saint-loup]

Agreed! However, on the present situation, a 3 satoshi fee that you paid will take many years before this will be confirmed hehehehee. In any case, I increased the fee to be included on the next block. Also, thank you and see you next year hehehe.

@Rikafip. You were right on Anatomy of the fall for best original screenplay, I was very much in love with the Holdovers.

Dune 2 will be next year's best director, best picture and best adapted screenplay winners!

Sorry bro, since you sent them almost 3 months ago, I thought you didn't need them very quickly and 14.8sat/byte would be enough. Blockchair was saying the transaction could be confirmed the next day so I was confident it could be done in the coming days at worst, anyway I could add more fees if it took too much time since I sent it in RBF. Glad all is done now though.  

[Rikafip]

No the bet was on Sandra Hüller, but we agreed to replace her by Emma Stone with a different payout, if she didn't qualify to avoid wasting time and money for nothing precisely.

Ah I see, thanks for the explanation. For some reason I thought bet was more straighforwrad and that it only included Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone.

@Rikafip. You were right on Anatomy of the fall for best original screenplay, I was very much in love with the Holdovers.

I also agree that Holdovers is a better film, but I liked Anataomy of a Fall very much too so I don't mind it winning the Oscar as I think it was deserved.

Dune 2 will be next year's best director, best picture and best adapted screenplay winners!

Since you are so sure, better bet as soon as possible to profit from those nice odds. By the way, have you seen the movie yet?

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I cannot disagree on Anatomy of the fall. It is a very good movie and I also would argue that Sandra Hüller gave the best performance among the best actress nominations.

On Dune 2, yes I have watched it already. I need another viewing and a 3rd one with subtitles hehe. I am starting to speculate that it might also have a chance to win best cinematography, editing, sound, production design, best costume design, the best musical score and some of the awards where it will be nominated heheheheh.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. I cannot disagree on Anatomy of the fall. It is a very good movie and I also would argue that Sandra Hüller gave the best performance among the best actress nominations.

+1, if it's up to me Sandra Huller would have won the Oscar and not Emma Stone, but can't say it was undeserving that Emma won either.

On Dune 2, yes I have watched it already. I need another viewing and a 3rd one with subtitles hehe. I am starting to speculate that it might also have a chance to win best cinematography, editing, sound, production design, best costume design, the best musical score and some of the awards where it will be nominated heheheheh.

Don't tell me that you watched Dune 2 via some bad cam rip??

By the way, I just came back home from the cinema, watched the Dune. It was a good movie but honestly I liked the first one a little bit more. Unfortunately I don't think that it has the quality to win Best Picture but then again,  much worse movies won it so why not Dune 2.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. I watched it in the cinema. If you did not like it better than part 1, I reckon you should watch it alone in the cinema again or wait for it on streaming services to watch with subtitles. I will be on my second viewing later with friends. I am pretending that I have not watched it before hehehehe. Gurney is very much alive this is shocking I am very excited heheehe. Duncan might also be alive hehehee.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. I watched it in the cinema. If you did not like it better than part 1, I reckon you should watch it alone in the cinema again or wait for it on streaming services to watch with subtitles.

But I did watch it with subititles, and cinema was almost empty so I wasn't distracted with other people. Btw, cinemas in your country don't have subtitles, movies are dubbed? If yes, that's horrible. 

I will be on my second viewing later with friends.

I think I am going to wait for it to comes to the "videostores" to watch it for the 2nd time.

[Saint-loup]

Don't tell me that you watched Dune 2 via some bad cam rip??

By the way, I just came back home from the cinema, watched the Dune. It was a good movie but honestly I liked the first one a little bit more. Unfortunately I don't think that it has the quality to win Best Picture but then again,  much worse movies won it so why not Dune 2.

wow I was about to go to watch it at cinema but if you didn't like it better than the first movie, I think I'm not going to watch it this time. I didn't like the first Dune at all, I found it very boring and worse than the "original" movie from David Lynch, released in 1984. Many people say Dune II is way better, but it doesn't seem to be unanimous finally. If I don't find it better than the first one, it will be my bet against bbc.reporter next year maybe lol 

[Rikafip]

wow I was about to go to watch it at cinema but if you didn't like it better than the first movie, I think I won't watch it this time. I didn't like the first Dune at all, I found it very boring and worse than the "original" movie from david Lynch in 1984. Many people say Dune II is way better, but it doesn't seem to be unanimous finally.

Its just my personal opinion so imho you shouldn't base your decision whether to watch it at cinema how I see it.

Friends I went to the cinema with liked the 2nd more than the first one so there's that. 2nd part is also more visually impressive so that's another good reason to watch it at the cinema. What I know though is that I am looking for forward to Dune Messiah which should come in the next few years.

[bbc.reporter]

Don't tell me that you watched Dune 2 via some bad cam rip??

By the way, I just came back home from the cinema, watched the Dune. It was a good movie but honestly I liked the first one a little bit more. Unfortunately I don't think that it has the quality to win Best Picture but then again,  much worse movies won it so why not Dune 2.

wow I was about to go to watch it at cinema but if you didn't like it better than the first movie, I think I'm not going to watch it this time. I didn't like the first Dune at all, I found it very boring and worse than the "original" movie from David Lynch, released in 1984. Many people say Dune II is way better, but it doesn't seem to be unanimous finally. If I don't find it better than the first one, it will be my bet against bbc.reporter next year maybe lol  

We can bet beginning today. If Dune is not nominated for all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay on the oscar awards for 2025, you will win $50. However, if Dune 2 wins best director, best adapted screenplay and best best picture give me 20x odds on my $50. Is asking for 20x odds too much? You can argue for this, however, it is also presently very early to know if Dune 2 will be in the oscar awards. This might be a $50 donation for you hehehe.

@Rikafip. In the cinema, in english, without subtitles. On streaming, in english, with subtitles. Also, if you have HBO Max or HBO Go, Dune 2 might be available on April 15.

[criptoevangelista]

Do you believe in the aberration that internet sites have become?

I came across the bizarre news of a giant Brazilian website explaining who the guitarist who played with Ryan Gosling during the 2024 Oscars was... That's right, people from the new generation or even current journalists don't know who SLASH is? ?? Oh my god what a world we are in.


https://revistaquem.globo.com/entretenimento/series-e-filmes/noticia/2024/03/quem-e-slash-o-guitarrista-que-tocou-com-ryan-gosling-no-oscar-2024.ghtml

[Rikafip]

We can bet beginning today. If Dune is not nominated for all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay on the oscar awards for 2025, you will win $50. However, if Dune 2 wins best director, best adapted screenplay and best best picture give me 20x odds on my $50. Is asking for 20x odds too much? You can argue for this, however, it is also presently very early to know if Dune 2 will be in the oscar awards. This might be a $50 donation for you hehehe.

An interesting proposal but I think in the end it would end uo like your previous bet- no one winning. Its almost certain that Dune Part 2 will get nominated in those categories you mentioned, while I think its unlikely it wins the Best Picture one. Even though I liked Dune 2, it will be a weak year if that is the best movie of 2024.

@Rikafip. In the cinema, in english, without subtitles.

If they don't show subtitles in your cinema, that means you are from English speaking country?

Also, if you have HBO Max or HBO Go, Dune 2 might be available on April 15.

Or if you don't mind downloading from trackers. Anyway, looking forward to April 15th to watch it once again.

[STT]

Slash retired from mainstream in effect I think, I've seen him doing more low key shows with a singer thats not Axyl Rose because they dont get on [actually Im out of date the old group do play together now but still they are old guard greats ]
You can only be at the top tier of mainstream famous for so long then you become a Legend and ironically legends can be forgotten until a new generation discovers their work as if its new and finds greatness again  

Theres going to be some people watching the Oscars who only know the younger actors, they wont really have a clue who Anthony Hopkins is and he did actually win an Oscar in recent years so theres no excuse but it wasnt a young persons film at all.  Thats almost worst because Oscars is probably more about the actors and those known on screen but I realize its awards for everyone within a production as well.   John Williams might be the most famous of all with 50 nominations, it would be silly to say but perhaps some dont know who he is either.

A while back the stunt men wanted an oscar put into as a category because so much of the work they do remains essential and they give up alot to do the job quite often.  But it appears thats one hidden job that wont be uncovered especially this time, maybe because they are often look alikes its confusing possibly.

[criptoevangelista]

Slash retired from mainstream in effect I think, I've seen him doing more low key shows with a singer thats not Axyl Rose because they dont get on [actually Im out of date the old group do play together now but still they are old guard greats ]
You can only be at the top tier of mainstream famous for so long then you become a Legend and ironically legends can be forgotten until a new generation discovers their work as if its new and finds greatness again  

Theres going to be some people watching the Oscars who only know the younger actors, they wont really have a clue who Anthony Hopkins is and he did actually win an Oscar in recent years so theres no excuse but it wasnt a young persons film at all.  Thats almost worst because Oscars is probably more about the actors and those known on screen but I realize its awards for everyone within a production as well.   John Williams might be the most famous of all with 50 nominations, it would be silly to say but perhaps some dont know who he is either.

A while back the stunt men wanted an oscar put into as a category because so much of the work they do remains essential and they give up alot to do the job quite often.  But it appears thats one hidden job that wont be uncovered especially this time, maybe because they are often look alikes its confusing possibly.

Maybe what you saw was Slash together with Myles Kennedy, they have a band and it's been going on for over 10 years, they've released some good records.

Slash reunited with Axl Rose in 2016, on April 1st at the Troubadour, the story behind it is pretty cool, it was celebrating April Fools' Day with a surprise Guns N' Roses reunion show (who would believe it?) haha, I thought: it was a genius marketing move.

The new generation will never really know who the great actors of the past are and what they represent in the history of cinema. The Oscar lost a little meaning for me, it has established quotas to compete for the big prize. The main requirement to compete should be art and nothing else.

[bbc.reporter]

We can bet beginning today. If Dune is not nominated for all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay on the oscar awards for 2025, you will win $50. However, if Dune 2 wins best director, best adapted screenplay and best best picture give me 20x odds on my $50. Is asking for 20x odds too much? You can argue for this, however, it is also presently very early to know if Dune 2 will be in the oscar awards. This might be a $50 donation for you hehehe.

An interesting proposal but I think in the end it would end uo like your previous bet- no one winning. Its almost certain that Dune Part 2 will get nominated in those categories you mentioned, while I think its unlikely it wins the Best Picture one. Even though I liked Dune 2, it will be a weak year if that is the best movie of 2024.

@Rikafip. In the cinema, in english, without subtitles.

If they don't show subtitles in your cinema, that means you are from English speaking country?

Also, if you have HBO Max or HBO Go, Dune 2 might be available on April 15.

Or if you don't mind downloading from trackers. Anyway, looking forward to April 15th to watch it once again.

It appears that I have not made the proposal very clear. If Dune 2 is not nominated for all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I lose the bet. Also, if Dune 2 does not win on all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I also lose the bet. However, if this movie wins on these 3 categories mentioned, I win 20x of the bet. This is a donation for the other bettor if he accepts hehe.

[Rikafip]

It appears that I have not made the proposal very clear.

Yep, in your initial proposal you didn't mention what happens if Dune 2 gets nominated in all those categories but doesn't win them (which I think is the most probable scenario), and that's why I said that it will have the same result like your previous bet.

Anyway, if you bet on time Dune winning those categories, I reckon you might get way higher odd than 20 from the bookies.

[Saint-loup]

It appears that I have not made the proposal very clear. If Dune 2 is not nominated for all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I lose the bet. Also, if Dune 2 does not win on all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I also lose the bet. However, if this movie wins on these 3 categories mentioned, I win 20x of the bet. This is a donation for the other bettor if he accepts hehe.

What do you mean precisely when you say " if Dune 2 does not win on all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I also lose the bet". Do you mean if Dune 2 doesn't win an Oscar in any of those categories, that is to say if the movie doesn't win one Oscar award at least in one of these 3 categories?
Usually I don't like betting long time before one event and we are 11 months before but I must confess I find that funny to bet against you on those events. And I am ready to risk $1000 for this fun lol

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that I have not made the proposal very clear. If Dune 2 is not nominated for all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I lose the bet. Also, if Dune 2 does not win on all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I also lose the bet. However, if this movie wins on these 3 categories mentioned, I win 20x of the bet. This is a donation for the other bettor if he accepts hehe.

What do you mean precisely when you say " if Dune 2 does not win on all of best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I also lose the bet". Do you mean if Dune 2 doesn't win an Oscar in any of those categories, that is to say if the movie doesn't win one Oscar award at least in one of these 3 categories?
Usually I don't like betting long time before one event and we are 11 months before but I must confess I find that funny to bet against you on those events. And I am ready to risk $1000 for this fun lol

Yes if Dune 2 does not win all of the 3 categories on best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, I lose the bet. If Dune 2 is also not officially nominated on the same categories for best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay you can collect your money immediately.

Let us escrow the bets to someone who is trustworthy next week if you agree. Also, because the amount of $1000 is very big to bet against my small $50, you can buy out from the bet and pay only 50% of the amount escrowed beginning on October. My bet will have no buy out, it will be my donation for you heheheheheee.

[Saint-loup]

Ok but do you know how much will take an escrow for holding $1050 during one year? If he takes 10% of the funds it will cost $105. In addition we must be sure he won't leave the forum or getting ill during this year. The other issue to address is the price of BTC during this year. What we will do if it makes +100% or -50%? We will let the funds as they are or we will remove or complete the amount before the ceremony?

[bbc.reporter]

Ok but do you know how much will take an escrow for holding $1050 during one year? If he takes 10% of the funds it will cost $105. In addition we must be sure he won't leave the forum or getting ill during this year. The other issue to address is the price of BTC during this year. What we will do if it makes +100% or -50%? We will let the funds as they are or we will remove or complete the amount before the ceremony?

I will ask some of the campaign managers if they want to be our escrow for our bet. They are the most trustworthy people in this forum, I reckon. However, if we cannot find one we use the forum's trust system. It might be good to inform one of the D2 members to become the referee for this bet?

On bitcoin's volatility, if we can agree on an escrow we can use a stablecoin. I certainly want to use stablecoin where we can also have cheaper fees for this.

[Saint-loup]

Ok but do you know how much will take an escrow for holding $1050 during one year? If he takes 10% of the funds it will cost $105. In addition we must be sure he won't leave the forum or getting ill during this year. The other issue to address is the price of BTC during this year. What we will do if it makes +100% or -50%? We will let the funds as they are or we will remove or complete the amount before the ceremony?

I will ask some of the campaign managers if they want to be our escrow for our bet. They are the most trustworthy people in this forum, I reckon. However, if we cannot find one we use the forum's trust system. It might be good to inform one of the D2 members to become the referee for this bet?

On bitcoin's volatility, if we can agree on an escrow we can use a stablecoin. I certainly want to use stablecoin where we can also have cheaper fees for this.

I am not against using a stablecoin, at least we wouldn't have to care about price volatility of the funds anymore. But we still have to find a workaround for the other issue, the one about the fees asked by the escrows for such service. Paying $20+ fees while risking $1000(if I lose or if the escrow disappears) for eventually winning $50 wouldn't be very interesting for me tbh.

[bbc.reporter]

Ok but do you know how much will take an escrow for holding $1050 during one year? If he takes 10% of the funds it will cost $105. In addition we must be sure he won't leave the forum or getting ill during this year. The other issue to address is the price of BTC during this year. What we will do if it makes +100% or -50%? We will let the funds as they are or we will remove or complete the amount before the ceremony?

I will ask some of the campaign managers if they want to be our escrow for our bet. They are the most trustworthy people in this forum, I reckon. However, if we cannot find one we use the forum's trust system. It might be good to inform one of the D2 members to become the referee for this bet?

On bitcoin's volatility, if we can agree on an escrow we can use a stablecoin. I certainly want to use stablecoin where we can also have cheaper fees for this.

I am not against using a stablecoin, at least we wouldn't have to care about price volatility of the funds anymore. But we still have to find a workaround for the other issue, the one about the fees asked by the escrows for such service. Paying $20+ fees while risking $1000(if I lose or if the escrow disappears) for eventually winning $50 wouldn't be very interesting for me tbh.

The amount of the bet has made this to be more serious and losing $1000 for this would certainly be painful if the escrow will not send the funds. Another suggestion would be to use the forum's trust system and ask one of the D2 members to be the referee if one of us does not pay the bet, however, I do not want to do this to you because you are betting $1000 against only $50. It is much easier for me to pay $50, I can give it to you right now as a donation but losing $1000 is very painful hehehehe.

In any case, if you want we use no escrow, no referees, however, we make the bet smaller. Your $300 and my $30 with no buy out.

@Rikafip you will be the witness hehehee.

[Saint-loup]

The amount of the bet has made this to be more serious and losing $1000 for this would certainly be painful if the escrow will not send the funds. Another suggestion would be to use the forum's trust system and ask one of the D2 members to be the referee if one of us does not pay the bet, however, I do not want to do this to you because you are betting $1000 against only $50. It is much easier for me to pay $50, I can give it to you right now as a donation but losing $1000 is very painful hehehehe.

In any case, if you want we use no escrow, no referees, however, we make the bet smaller. Your $300 and my $30 with no buy out.

@Rikafip you will be the witness hehehee.

If I publicly accept the bet, it implicitly implies that I play my account and my reputation along with the $1000. Even without a dedicated referee. And ofc I'm ok with that. It's an unwritten rule of Bitcointalk, if you don't respect an agreement made through the forum, you deserve to be tagged by any DT member. So of course, I took that into consideration when I said I was interested. I have no problem with that, referee or not. And I think the $500 buy out option is a fair safety against that if for some reasons I can't or don't want anymore risking $1000. But we need to agree how to use it. I can exercise it anytime till October? Or only during October month? The last day to use it would be October 31th 2024?

[el kaka22]

I would never be part of this "bet", but I would like to warn, whoever wants to bet on Dune 2 to win, even the movie producers themselves did not really rely on winning the Oscars, usually there is a time slot where you share your movies, which is about late summer, going into autumn as well.

Because that way you are not only doing the tour, but also you are doing the tv shows etc that is leading up to award season, then you get to go to other award shows and start winning them, which is tied to your tour, so you are non stop on the road, and then ends with Oscars. That way from release at late summer period, like late august, until the Oscars, the actors are ALWAYS on screen for a reason, making it more famous. Dune 2 already released, and the Oscars are a year away, they did not expect it, and you shouldn't neither.

[bbc.reporter]

The amount of the bet has made this to be more serious and losing $1000 for this would certainly be painful if the escrow will not send the funds. Another suggestion would be to use the forum's trust system and ask one of the D2 members to be the referee if one of us does not pay the bet, however, I do not want to do this to you because you are betting $1000 against only $50. It is much easier for me to pay $50, I can give it to you right now as a donation but losing $1000 is very painful hehehehe.

In any case, if you want we use no escrow, no referees, however, we make the bet smaller. Your $300 and my $30 with no buy out.

@Rikafip you will be the witness hehehee.

If I publicly accept the bet, it implicitly implies that I play my account and my reputation along with the $1000. Even without a dedicated referee. And ofc I'm ok with that. It's an unwritten rule of Bitcointalk, if you don't respect an agreement made through the forum, you deserve to be tagged by any DT member. So of course, I took that into consideration when I said I was interested. I have no problem with that, referee or not. And I think the $500 buy out option is a fair safety against that if for some reasons I can't or don't want anymore risking $1000. But we need to agree how to use it. I can exercise it anytime till October? Or only during October month? The last day to use it would be October 31th 2024?

You can exercise the buy out option until the day before the awarding night on March 2025. I am not quite certain on the date, however, yes the day before the Oscar ceremony occurs. Also, if I am being honest with you, I am not feeling very comfortable for you on betting $1000 against $50. Are you sure about this? Have you seen the movie? It is quite good hehehehee.

In any case, if you want to propose to make this bet $500 against $50 with a buy out option of $250, I would accept this if you agree.

[Saint-loup]

Wow you're very sure of your bet bro, that's impressive. You should really like the movie, or finding it very artistic/academic at least. Of course, I would be ready to accept that. But you should take a little bit more time IMO. $500 and $250 are not small amounts but the risk to lose your bet is not small either IMO even if I have absolutely no idea of the likelihood to happen, to be honest. I should watch the movie on monday if I have enough time to go to the theater.

[bbc.reporter]

@Saint-loup. Yes, I would very much recommend to watch Dune 2 in a theatre alone with all of your snacks ready and going to toilet before it begins to make it certain that you will not go to toilet during the movie hehehehe. I have seen the movie 3 times. The 3rd time was only at home with a clear enough copy on tv. It was a different experience on tv. In the theatre, the movie gave me much more emotion and excitement. I will not spoil it, however, the ending of this movie is the most very perfect ending for a movie. This frenchman has raised the standard for directing movies, I reckon

[Saint-loup]

If you're talking about Denis Villeneuve, he's not french, he is Canadian, from the french speaking part, that is to say he is a Quebecer actually. I'm not a big fan of him and his aesthetic, but it's a great director for sure. And from what I read, he has been chosen to direct the last chapter of the saga, Dune III.  So I guess we will see the same characters and actors again. The movie is expected to be released in 2 or 3 years.
https://www.theverge.com/24121523/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-legendary-messiah

[bbc.reporter]

@Saint-loup. Thank you for the correction. However, yes a Canadian with French ancestors. This is still the French in him that have made him create very good movies, I reckon. It is very head scratching for me that you mentioned you do not like his style. Sicario and Arrival are very good movies with very good sound, cinematography and the feeling being given to the person is very capturing of the attention. I will watch Dune 2 again hehehehe.

On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.

[pinggoki]

If you're talking about Denis Villeneuve, he's not french, he is Canadian, from the french speaking part, that is to say he is a Quebecer actually. I'm not a big fan of him and his aesthetic, but it's a great director for sure. And from what I read, he has been chosen to direct the last chapter of the saga, Dune III.  So I guess we will see the same characters and actors again. The movie is expected to be released in 2 or 3 years.
https://www.theverge.com/24121523/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-legendary-messiah

If you read the book, that's not yet the last part of the saga, it would be a trilogy not a saga since saga needs to be more than 3 I think. It's also the 2nd book of the series that's going to get the adaptation too which is nice since that means that there's a possibility that everyone will be able to see and experience the Dune saga from start to finish without having the need to read the book because most of the time, people don't have the time to read books which is sad and alarming. If they do follow how the book plays out and they won't cast the same actor for any other character, probably that's the last time we'd see some of the characters, the only recurring character that would retain their casting all throughout would be Jason Momoa's character, Duncan Idaho.

[Rikafip]

On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.

Since rest of Dune books are pretty crappy (I mean after Messiah), no wonder that he is not interested in making more movies, and I hope no one else will. Regarding Sicario, I don't know if you missed it, but there is already Sicario 2, released back in 2018.

Btw, I saw yesterday Dune 2 for the 2nd time (decent rip is finally out) and I have to say that first part was still better for me. Good luck with your bet, but I think that chances of you winning are quite low and it will be a bad film year if that ends as a best movie we saw this year. Another thing that doesn't help it is the release date, which is way too early meaning it will be very expensive to create Oscar hype once again.

[Saint-loup]

I haven't been able to watch it last week because the movie screening time at the theater wasn't convenient for me (I saw The First Omen instead) but if you find it worse than the first opus, I think I won't wait to be able to watch it before betting lol. BBC are you still ok to bet against me? We can bet on another outcome about the movie with different odds, if you are less confident lol.

[bbc.reporter]

On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.

Since rest of Dune books are pretty crappy (I mean after Messiah), no wonder that he is not interested in making more movies, and I hope no one else will. Regarding Sicario, I don't know if you missed it, but there is already Sicario 2, released back in 2018.

Btw, I saw yesterday Dune 2 for the 2nd time (decent rip is finally out) and I have to say that first part was still better for me. Good luck with your bet, but I think that chances of you winning are quite low and it will be a bad film year if that ends as a best movie we saw this year. Another thing that doesn't help it is the release date, which is way too early meaning it will be very expensive to create Oscar hype once again.

I reckon this Sicario Rise of the soldado was not the real Sicario 2 that Denis Villenueve would have created. This Rise of the soldado is a frighfully ugly created movie to continue the story of Sicario. There are rumors that Denis Villenueve will fix this with Sicario: Capo. This is an unconfirmed rumor, however.

@Saint-loup. Yes of course hehehehehe! We agree I bet $50 and you bet $500 for the terms of the bet that has been mentioned? I will make it less painful for you heheheheeh.

[Rikafip]

I reckon this Sicario Rise of the soldado was not the real Sicario 2 that Denis Villenueve would have created. This Rise of the soldado is a frighfully ugly created movie to continue the story of Sicario.

Keep in mind that original Sicario was not only Villenueve's movie, screenwriter Taylor Sheridan (who also wrote sequel) also played a big part in that movie success.

There are rumors that Denis Villenueve will fix this with Sicario: Capo. This is an unconfirmed rumor, however.

That would be a bad move imho, as chances of making a good 3rd part are very slim.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. Agreed. Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe. Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.

I will remove 2024 from the title and keep this thread unlocked for my bet against @Saint-loup.

[Rikafip]

Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe.

Yeah I saw it. He is also behind some excellent movies and series and he is one the rare creators currently active that I follow and bascially watch anything he makes.

Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.

My guess is that Solimma got hired due his work on Gomorra (which is an excellent series that I recommend), but sequels are always tricky and almost nmever as good as the originals. For that reason I woulnd't like to see 3rd Sicario part, even if Villeneuve comes back to direct it.

[cabron]

Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe.

Yeah I saw it. He is also behind some excellent movies and series and he is one the rare creators currently active that I follow and bascially watch anything he makes.

Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.

My guess is that Solimma got hired due his work on Gomorra (which is an excellent series that I recommend), but sequels are always tricky and almost nmever as good as the originals. For that reason I woulnd't like to see 3rd Sicario part, even if Villeneuve comes back to direct it.

Tyler Sheridan deserves a win. I watched the Yellow Stone series after he was interviewed by Joe Rogan Podcast telling some trivial facts about the craziest laws in history.  I think most of his films are based on what's going on in Indian reservations. Just like that Wind River. That podcast is worth watching by the way.

The Dune 2 is indeed a flop. I first watched the first on Netflix, it was better.  I thought it would end like Monster Hunter but disappointing in the end.

[Rikafip]

Tyler Sheridan deserves a win.

Win for what exactly?

The Dune 2 is indeed a flop. I first watched the first on Netflix, it was better.

While I agree that first part is better movie, I don't think that 2nd part is flop by any metric. Both critics and public like it, while it managed to make almost $700 million, against ~$200 million that was spent. On top of that, it will receive more than a few Oscar nominations and probably win at least few (mostly those in tehncial categories).

I thought it would end like Monster Hunter but disappointing in the end.

What's the point comparing it with another movie? Especially since its a movie based on books so its not like they can (or should) change the end dramatically.