Hal Finney: each coin a value of about $10 million prophecy

[TravelMug]

It's just hard to phantom what Hal Finney said way back, just a couple of days when Bitcoin was just released by Satoshi, on what could be the price of bitcoin in the future and it could be the "Mother of all predictions. This is what the legend say,



https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html

Just imagine though if Hal is still with us today, the man is really a genius and visionary, as now that we have seen a lot of predictions of what will be the price is the future, like in the next bull run, we will be hoping to see $100,000.

But this could be a big possibility down the line that $ 10 million = 1 BTC. Perhaps in the next 3 halvings?

Do you think it's possible given that bitcoin is going to be scarce?

By the end of 2024, there will be 20 million bitcoins. Currently, we are in 19,500, circulating supply.

So if my calculations where right, 99% of all bitcoins will have been mined by 2032.

And that 1% will be mined for the last 100 years.

[Jating]

I think Hal really knows what's about to go down with Bitcoin that's why he is one of the pioneers and as a contributor, and so he is well aware of what could have been the price in the next decade or so and he did that prediction.

Of course, there are a lot of predictions as well in the next coming years that we should take with a grain of salt. But coming from a legend himself? really not hard to see that we might in the future hit that price point and all we can say is that Hal is correct.

And this could be the very first prediction as well.

[dzungmobile]

It is mother of predictions but is it realistic and achievable?

I guess not but as a Bitcoin holder, I hope I am wrong.

GDP by country in 2022, shows Tuvalu's GDP is $60,349,391. It will be like 10 BTC if the prediction of Hal Finney becomes true. Some small nations with low national GDP from the list will not require too many bitcoins.

Bitcoin whales will be very powerful people if 1 BTC worths $10,000,000.

[tabas]

Hal is truly a genius and that's why many think that he's the real satoshi and the closest candidate to be one. $10M in the future is possible although we haven't reached $100k yet. But before anyone else had that idea that "anything is possible" for the price of Bitcoin, he already had that on his mind before everyone said that, and note that it was in the early days of Bitcoin. We're not even close to that price but in the past ATHs and not even ATHs, we've got already a lot of stories about rugs to riches because of Bitcoin and how much more with that price in the future.

Do you think it's possible given that bitcoin is going to be scarce?

Yes, all of its attributes, halving, lost bitcoins forever, limited supply, and mining difficulty make it scarce and will be scarcer as year passes by.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Who knows? we really don't know what will be the final price of bitcoin. Remember that in the beginning, no one really thought that in the next decade, the price will go as high as our last all time high.

So Hal might be right after all, of course, he is already a genius, but what separate him it that he really is a hands-on guy as far as early as the birth of bitcoin. He is already there to mine as well and then make this bold prediction that we are now unravelling and looking at the future, yes, we might unlock this price.

[hatshepsut93]

If 10M per coin means Bitcoin representing all global wealth, than today's value of $28,000 means that Bitcoin represents about 1/360 of global wealth. I seriously doubt that Bitcoin adoption is that high. That 1 in 360 people fully switched to Bitcoin, or that 1/360 of all wealth was moved to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's price is purely determined by supply and demand. And we have very poor understanding of what drives the demand and supply. We want to believe that this is adoption and people are using Bitcoin, but how much of it is just speculation? Maybe long-term speculation, but still speculation.

[Captain Corporate]

I believe that we are not going to see this come to frutation and that is why I believe that we shouldnt really expect it when we are investing. These type of predictions only matter when we actually do something about it, if we do not do anything about it then you can say it could be 30k or 300k or 3million, none of it would matter at all. I think it only important if you bet on it and make an investment regarding this and we should not really invest based on it. It would hurt your confidence on the long run if it goes high but to where you want. It should not be all that possible anytime soon, it definitely is a multi decade thing if possible. Should be important to have some reasonable amount as your goal.

[Husires]

The data differed greatly from 2009, and I believe that the current financial situation is completely different from what was in the past. It was the year that preceded the global financial crisis, and many do not know the direction of the future or expect that this crisis will end quickly.
The price of 10 million is extremely exaggerated and unrealistic. The best we can get is one million after 30 to 50 years.

[DaNNy001]

The data differed greatly from 2009, and I believe that the current financial situation is completely different from what was in the past. It was the year that preceded the global financial crisis, and many do not know the direction of the future or expect that this crisis will end quickly.
The price of 10 million is extremely exaggerated and unrealistic. The best we can get is one million after 30 to 50 years.

I aslo think so about the actual 10 million hype because there is a very rare and minimal chance that Bitcoin can actually shoot up to that certain amount in the given year space and I think even the 1 million you are speculating in that given time frame is still something to look on because 1 million dollars isn't 100k or even 500k. But that's the beauty of the whole Bitcoin market as no one is ever sure, it's just a matter of mere speculation and guess.

[Viscore]

I'm getting that bull run feeling too, especially when I see posts like these – they really amp things up. I mean, who am I to call it unrealistic? Let's roll with that prophecy, mate – $10 million for 1 BTC, that's bonkers! I might just start beefing up my investment, which has been chillin' for a while. And yeah, maybe I'll ease off on the gambling for a bit to avoid constantly chipping away at it.

[Poker Player]

The prophecy is based on Bitcoin eventually becoming a worldwide currency, and therefore representing all global wealth, which at present has little prospect of being fulfilled. The predictions made by Saylor are not so different, but in this case considering the Bitcoin as the world's store of value that will defund all other stores of value to attract all the wealth to it, which also seems to me to be exaggerated.

Neither the Bitcoin is going to be a predominant world currency nor is it going to demonetize all assets (stock market, gold, real estate, art, etc) to absorb all that money by itself.

At some point the price will reach $10M, just as it did before at $1M, but by that time the purchasing power of $10 (and $1M) will be much less than it is now due to inflation.

[STT]

Its impossible to know the absolute future outcome but his reasoning based off good value odds was something I can recognize as valid.   You can always be wrong in some way but dont ignore a reasonable risk to value payoff scenario.
   In Jan 2009 almost everyone had their attention on the financial crisis at that time, this was definitely a sector below the radar for all sorts of reasons.

  Even with Dollar now though very dominant it does not describe all money.  Its only that the global reserve system references dollar that its so important.  After WW2 over half of world trade was USA based apparently, hence justifying a strong bias then but its not close to true now we have seen alot of development despite setbacks sometimes large the world is far more diverse now.  If anything its a fault that dollar is this biased when the world trade is not, its probably misaligned and causing problems.  I dont especially look to any replacement to copy that bias and mistake, so BTC being all money is not the scenario I look out for; theres lots of growth left anyway.

[SamReomo]

Hal was truly an imaginary guy but his imagination was with logic and that's something we all must admire. We lost a really previous asset of the community, the guy was truly a brilliant person and he was really close to Satoshi. I don't know if Satoshi is live or not but if he's alive then he might miss Hal Finney more than anyone else. I believe that Bitcoin has potential to reach $10 million per coin just according to Hal's prediction but to see that happening we'll have to wait for at least 2 more decades.

[m2017]

It's just hard to phantom what Hal Finney said way back, just a couple of days when Bitcoin was just released by Satoshi, on what could be the price of bitcoin in the future and it could be the "Mother of all predictions. This is what the legend say,



https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html

Just imagine though if Hal is still with us today, the man is really a genius and visionary, as now that we have seen a lot of predictions of what will be the price is the future, like in the next bull run, we will be hoping to see $100,000.

It’s a little strange to hear in a technical (or pseudo-technical, since most sections and discussions on this forum are far from technical in content) about visionary. I think that Hal simply believed very strongly in btcoin and the future of it, because he was very passionate about this technology.

We will most likely see $100.000, this is a completely feasible figure, but there are some doubts about $10 mln. I'm not sure if bitcoin will ever cost so much that we will see this time. It will take a lot of time (and cycles) to achieve this.

But this could be a big possibility down the line that $ 10 million = 1 BTC. Perhaps in the next 3 halvings?

Overly optimistic expectations. This probably won't happen in the next 3 cycles (~12 years). But not because I assume so.

Do you think it's possible given that bitcoin is going to be scarce?

It is possible exactly as much as it is impossible.

By the end of 2024, there will be 20 million bitcoins. Currently, we are in 19,500, circulating supply.

So if my calculations where right, 99% of all bitcoins will have been mined by 2032.

And that 1% will be mined for the last 100 years.

This is only not enough for such an appreciation of bitcoin. Without new (mass) users and demand for bitcoin, this means little.

[Pierre 2]

About Bitcoin I started to have different ideas which I didn't have couple of years ago to be honest. But in my opinion Bitcoin price range can definitely hit more than a million dollar considering how much money fed is printing right now. Its pretty much ridiculous. We really needed much better currency like Bitcoin to store our wealth against inflation so that's why Bitcoin pioneers were very visionary in my opinion. Their goal is achieved. We see what's behind the curtain.

[Lucius]

The prophecy is based on Bitcoin eventually becoming a worldwide currency, and therefore representing all global wealth, which at present has little prospect of being fulfilled. The predictions made by Saylor are not so different, but in this case considering the Bitcoin as the world's store of value that will defund all other stores of value to attract all the wealth to it, which also seems to me to be exaggerated.

Neither the Bitcoin is going to be a predominant world currency nor is it going to demonetize all assets (stock market, gold, real estate, art, etc) to absorb all that money by itself.

At some point the price will reach $10M, just as it did before at $1M, but by that time the purchasing power of $10 (and $1M) will be much less than it is now due to inflation.

People get carried away with big numbers, although Hal wrote in what context he thinks such a price could be realized. But I also agree that it is completely unrealistic to expect that all the world's values can ever be transferred to Bitcoin, because then the whole world would become decentralized, which really seems like one big impossible mission.

I think that Bitcoin will always be just an alternative to the existing system, and that most people will never accept it as an idea conceived by Satoshi. From my perspective, the average resident of the UK or US is still very attached to their national currency, let alone countries like China or India that have very negative attitudes towards anything they cannot control.

However, if in xx years there will still be $, perhaps 1 BTC will really be worth a million or more, but the purchasing power of those millions may be ten or more times less than today.

Regarding the comparison between Hal and Saylor, it should be taken into account that Hal wrote this at the very beginning of Bitcoin's existence, and Saylor says it today when some things are still much clearer than then.

[Churchillvv]

His imaginations are wide and gradually becoming true or is true already. One thing is Hal was there when it all started and he saw the efforts Satoshi and co put in to create one thing (cryptocurrency) called Bitcoin.that means he knew that all the resources that was put in can never go in vain.
But it's my concern about this interior underdeveloped countries that still lacks technology. how will there know about Bitcoin and it's future what if in the next few decades everything depends on Bitcoin will such low tech countries still survive? That is exactly what makes me thing Bitcoin getting to world acceptance is a mission impossible or can not be possible it's just imagination.
Cause the prediction of Bitcoin up to $10 million per coin is really huge how many people will be able to afford then? Infact let me stop worrying about the future it will speak for it self when the time comes.

[Dunamisx]

Alot could be deduced from a visionary cypherpunk like Hal, no wonder some already believed he was Satoshi, he already had the foresights that this is what bitcoin is going to turn to in the near future, he also understand that if the digital currency is widely accepted, it's worth will be something worth more than millions, now this is what we are seing the possibility of achieving better as bitcoin continue to increase in value over time.

[mv1986]

It is mother of predictions but is it realistic and achievable?

I guess not but as a Bitcoin holder, I hope I am wrong.

GDP by country in 2022, shows Tuvalu's GDP is $60,349,391. It will be like 10 BTC if the prediction of Hal Finney becomes true. Some small nations with low national GDP from the list will not require too many bitcoins.

Bitcoin whales will be very powerful people if 1 BTC worths $10,000,000.

The math to calculate this is not that straightforward. Or it is not straightforward because nobody knows anyway, but if we assume that Bitcoin will reflect total household wealth one day, you would also have to adjust for the time factor and that wealth in the meantime is most likely to increase as well? Good question actually, I wonder what a recession could do to global total household wealth.

"Global wealth is expected to rise by 38% over the next five years, reaching USD 629 trillion by 2027"

This is what I mean. It is a report from the UBS and without conducting an in depth validity check here, the numbers are significantly increasing in a short amount of time. This would put Bitcoin at $30 million already if we consider the upper bound provided by UBS here and I guess long-term further increases would be expected.

[coolcoinz]

You know what? Hal's story taught me something and that's to value your time here on Earth, spend it with your loved ones. If he could only see what Bitcoin has become, maybe live until 2030, but no.
So, maybe bitcoin will reach this level of adoption in 2030, maybe in 2035, but what if you are no longer here to witness it? What if you are, but die a year or 2 later, without really being able to experience the wealth you've gained over the years?

It's important to first live your life, have fun, spend time with family. Don't get carried away by dreams of wealth that bitcoin can provide. This should always come second, third, or even fourth.
Would you rather have billions in bitcoin and die a few months later, or have no bitcoin at all but live for another 10 years?

I know that bitcoin will one day be worth a lot of money. Don't know if it's going to be 1 million or 10 million, but I don't focus on it and live my life as I used to 10 years ago when I had no bitcoin at all.