Is doubling your investment more probable than we think?

[Gallar]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so.
~Snip

Looking at the last time Bitcoin experienced a halving, it is true that this year Bitcoin halving will occur again. However, when talking about a massive increase in the bitcoin market price or what is usually called a bull market, it usually occurs a year after the bitcoin halving occurs. Because this can be seen from the bullish market that occurred in the previous phase. This happened one year after the bitcoin halving occurred. Because if you think about it logically, you can be sure that bitcoin will experience an increase in price, of course it can't just go up straight away. But of course you have to go through the process of offering and purchasing bitcoin on a large scale first. After that, the price of bitcoin will definitely experience an increase in its market price.

And regarding predictions of the highest bitcoin prices that might occur in the next bull market. It's true, many investors predict that bitcoin could reach a price of $100k in the upcoming bull market. Perhaps this prediction was put forward because it was based on the highest price of bitcoin that occurred in the previous bull market, namely $66.9k. So maybe many bitcoin investors think that the bullish market that occurred after this year's halving could exceed the ATH price of bitcoin in the previous phase.

Because that makes sense too. Because in the last few years bitcoin users have continued to increase quite significantly. So with this, it will definitely have an impact on the price of bitcoin in the upcoming bull market.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

Your opinion is not wrong. Because the possibility of this happening is greater. However, you need to know that every bitcoin investor who saves their assets for the upcoming bull market will definitely have their own price benchmark for selling their bitcoin assets. So if you are only chasing a 1× profit, the scenario you created must be very correct. However, for bitcoin investors who are chasing profits of more than 1x, you can be sure that the scenario you created will not be suitable.

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[Ultegra134]

Many might be expecting for it to happen, but with the halving expected to happen in April of 2024, I expect that we will start to experience major price increase at least 5 months or even more after the event, so I only expect that price increase will happen at around the 2nd half of the year. With what you said regarding economic condition, remember the pandemic in 2020? Are our economic condition good at that time? 2020 and 2021 are considered the worst years for many because of lockdowns, the virus being spread etc. but look at what the market did at that time. So I don't buy the "economic condition isn't promising" thing because the market increased in 2020 and 2021 even though we are at the considered the worst time.

Correct, I'm not expecting Bitcoin's price to rise right when the halving occurs. It'll take months, however, I believe that as we're heading towards April, the price is probable to gradually increase and surpass $40,000 pre-halving and perhaps reach up to $50,000 a month or two afterwards. The point is that we're less than a year away from where we're expecting a major increase in price, which is the last quarter of 2024. And yes, I'll have to agree with you, 2020 and 2021 were quite stagnant years for the economy, due to Covid-19, quarantines, travel restrictions and a whole disruption in the supply chain, the effects of which are still seen today. So indeed, there's a decent chance of Bitcoin ignoring the current economic recession.

It's good that you're not too greedy and set moderate goals for yourself to avoid regrets, but I find that a target of 100k$ or 120k$ is not too high for bitcoin in the upcoming bull season. I have even higher expectations than everyone's predictions, I believe bitcoin is completely capable of reaching $150k-180k.

Many people say that investing in bitcoin is not a place to get rich quickly, but we should not deny that it is easier to make double or triple profits with bitcoin than with any other asset. That's why we invest in bitcoin instead of other options, so I still consider bitcoin a get-rich-quick investment more than other assets.

I don't want to fall short of my expectations; I'd prefer to be modest and satisfied with what I have, although I'm quite positive that in the upcoming two years, it's very probable to see a new ATH that would triple my investment. However, as I've mentioned already, it's best to be modest and have more down-to-earth expectations.

I understand your down-to-earth predictions. Like me, you're also probably annoyed with those seemingly unrealistic targets. Sometimes, they seem nothing but wishful thinking.

But we can actually go back to what happened in the most recent past and see if these 3x or 4x returns within a year, which you observed as way too common in the forum, are probable.

The ATH was $69,044.77 and it was reached on the 10th of November 2021. On the 10th of November 2020, the price was just around $15,000. With this data alone, we can see that the price actually more than quadrupled in just a year's time. As a matter of fact, if we step back a little further to October of 2020, the price was just $10,000. Several months before that, the price was even much lower. It was just $5,000 in March of the same year.

Although we're already high at $27,000 right now, I'm still not discounting the possibility that it would at least x3 or x4 a year from now. That to me is still probable. That could still be a down-to-earth or realistic prediction.

Judging by what we've already seen Bitcoin succeed at, a new ATH isn't an unrealistic expectation. Surely, it won't happen now, but I wouldn't doubt that it's likely to happen in the next two or three upcoming years, which would result in 3x or even 4x profits. It's an insane amount of money, if you consider it.

The halving never caused the price to rise instantly, it happened only after 6+ months, and it is possible that there won't be a significant bull run until Q4 2024. However, I do not see it as unrealistic (or impossible) that we have a pre-halving effect that could perhaps cause a 25% to 50% price increase before April 2024. Anyone who invests today and gets the opportunity to earn 100% after 1 year should be happy if that happens, but if they don't want to risk it, keep the money in the bank or under the mattress.

That's correct, but still, Q4 of 2024 is approximately a year from now and may even result in a new ATH or at least somewhere close to $50,000 or $60,000, which is still great judging by the shortness of time it would be required from now. Those who are able to invest now won't regret it.

Halving is something that is definitely happening, but don't forget the possible approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US that can happen in the next few months, and most experts think that it will resonate very positively. In combination with the halving, it could very easily increase the price by at least x2 or more compared to the last ATH - which means that we could be talking about a price of $150k for 1 BTC sometime in late 2024 or 2025.

I haven't heard of it, to be honest. I've been quite busy with life the past few weeks, so I've lost touch with the news regarding cryptocurrencies. That would honestly be great, and I'd love to purchase some Bitcoin now, but at the same time, I'd rather not. It's a complicated matter, and I wish I could somehow speed up my accumulation process.

[ShowOff]

I don't consider my investment goal to be doubling my money, but rather a return on what I have invested. That's the profit I expect from this investment, but I don't have a definite target when I will take this profit. If the price of bitcoin can reach x2 in the next few months due to halving factors or so on, then maybe I will take some of the profits and keep the rest for a longer period of time.

So far I've consistently accumulation as much as I can, but I only plan to do it until the halving. If the price of bitcoin during the halving has reached $50k, then I will stop accumulation and wait for the best moment to take profits. This is just a plan, but it may still change should the price of bitcoin not exceed $50k at the halving.

[Lanatsa]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

So youre saying that people should really be just only thinking about 2x return or profit on their Bitcoin investment or holdings? Yes, it would be something that good to look at but we know that majority of us would really be looking for something better and we do always really love on reflecting into those past years on which Bitcoin did surprise most of us here on this space on which reaching out numbers on which we didnt really that even expect that it would really be able to reach out on that level.It did really just turn out to be that this market is totally random and cant be known and this is why we do really keep on making that speculative approach. Just let people to think on what they are thinking whatever whether it would really be positive or negative or something realistic or non realistic. Its their money that they had invested on which it is really just normal that peoples approach and speculations would really differ to each other.

[JoyMarsha]

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

It is quite clear that we don't know what the price of bitcoin will be by next year, but that won't make me have a moderate price tag to sell my bitcoin assets at $50k, even when I know that after months of the halving season, Bitcoin tends to give a new ATH.  

To tell you the truth, many crypto investors would like to aim for more than double the profits of their bitcoin investment. At least many will be looking at a profit of 3x or 4x of their bitcoin investment, depending on the market condition of crypto.

[karabiber]

Many miners will start earning half as fewer after the halving occurs, and miners mining with the same machines will have earned half as fewer BTC since the event took place. For this reason, many miners will choose to shut down their mining machines completely due to a significant drop in earnings.
The risky part will be the decisions to be taken by large mining companies that calculate this process in advance. Especially in the period before and after the halving event, many miners may choose to sell the BTC they hold in order to cover the costs. This could trigger a serious selling pressure in the market. I think that the market will bottom in March, which is closest to the halving, miners will collect BTC with whales while the market is at the bottom to cover their increased costs, and after making the market unbearable for a while, the market will rocket in November 2024 as we approach 2025. We should prepare our investment for every situation and doubling the amount in our pockets may be later than we think. All this is not investment advice and you should make your own decisions in the market.

[Minor Miner]

Many miners will start earning half as fewer after the halving occurs, and miners mining with the same machines will have earned half as fewer BTC since the event took place. For this reason, many miners will choose to shut down their mining machines completely due to a significant drop in earnings.
The risky part will be the decisions to be taken by large mining companies that calculate this process in advance. Especially in the period before and after the halving event, many miners may choose to sell the BTC they hold in order to cover the costs.

The block reward reduction will not have any impact on miners. This will only happen if the bitcoin price does not increase, but if the bitcoin price still increases and creates a new ATH as before, miners will still make huge profits. They have no reason to stop the work that is bringing them wealth.

This could trigger a serious selling pressure in the market. I think that the market will bottom in March, which is closest to the halving, miners will collect BTC with whales while the market is at the bottom to cover their increased costs, and after making the market unbearable for a while, the market will rocket in November 2024 as we approach 2025. We should prepare our investment for every situation and doubling the amount in our pockets may be later than we think. All this is not investment advice and you should make your own decisions in the market.

I think the market has bottomed out in 2021 and $15K is the lowest we've ever been. There will be more corrections until the bull market emerges but no new bottom will be made. But no one knows exactly when bull season will come, the future is unpredictable.

[bitgolden]

Looking at the last time Bitcoin experienced a halving, it is true that this year Bitcoin halving will occur again. However, when talking about a massive increase in the bitcoin market price or what is usually called a bull market, it usually occurs a year after the bitcoin halving occurs. Because this can be seen from the bullish market that occurred in the previous phase. This happened one year after the bitcoin halving occurred. Because if you think about it logically, you can be sure that bitcoin will experience an increase in price, of course it can't just go up straight away. But of course you have to go through the process of offering and purchasing bitcoin on a large scale first. After that, the price of bitcoin will definitely experience an increase in its market price.

It's true that we are going to end up with something that will change some things and if we are careful then we are going to do fine as well. Too many people are focusing on how good we can do and forget about what we can do right now. The future is there, and yes we are going to be doing fine with time, but we need to remember that we are going to end up with something much better with time.

So all in all I am assuming that we are going to be doing fine as long as we do fine right now. The future is written in my mind already, maybe I am wrong but if you ask me right now, I will say that there will be a new ATH by at latest 2025, that's guaranteed in my mind, if I am wrong then I am wrong. But even if I am right, if I do not buy any, then what good does it do?

[Pierre 2]

I think nearly all fellow forum members here will at least make 3x in next halving and bull run through Bitcoin and better altcoins. Its pretty much safe guess. But issue here is to make more money before halving through other methods as Bitcoin stalls a bit. If you invest into Bitcoin at the right time you would make more because your initial investment will be bigger. That's why people mainly look for other methods instead of focusing at nearly guarenteed 2x through Bitcoin.

[Lucius]

Halving is something that is definitely happening, but don't forget the possible approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US that can happen in the next few months, and most experts think that it will resonate very positively. In combination with the halving, it could very easily increase the price by at least x2 or more compared to the last ATH - which means that we could be talking about a price of $150k for 1 BTC sometime in late 2024 or 2025.

I haven't heard of it, to be honest. I've been quite busy with life the past few weeks, so I've lost touch with the news regarding cryptocurrencies. That would honestly be great, and I'd love to purchase some Bitcoin now, but at the same time, I'd rather not. It's a complicated matter, and I wish I could somehow speed up my accumulation process.

There is always the possibility that something positive will happen, but also that something negative will happen that will affect the price of BTC. Yesterday, the price briefly flew towards $30k because some amateurs announced that the SEC approved a spot ETF from BlackRock, which of course was fake news. If fake news has such an effect, one only has to wonder what will happen if at some point such news appears that will be true.

Investing in BTC is always risky, not only because of the price, but also because of the way someone stores such sensitive data. However, as the old saying goes, "he who does not take risks, does not profit", it is up to each individual what he will do with his money.

I already mentioned to you that it would not be bad if you look for a better paid campaign, you are a solid poster and you are active on the forum, why not take advantage of that?

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

If you have the privilege to double your investment, then it's a good idea to do so because it creates more opportunities to earn higher than you would have only Invested on, some people make this decision that instead of doubling it at once, they do it gradually using DCA, all our money should be reinvested back to the profitable asset like bitcoin and when the market rises then we sell and reinvest back again and so on the whole process continues.

[taufik123]

If you have the privilege to double your investment, then it's a good idea to do so because it creates more opportunities to earn higher than you would have only Invested on, some people make this decision that instead of doubling it at once, they do it gradually using DCA, all our money should be reinvested back to the profitable asset like bitcoin and when the market rises then we sell and reinvest back again and so on the whole process continues.

What kind of privilege?
Multiplying an investment cannot be done easily, it requires a project that will indeed be bullish in the end and also requires patience.

All have the same rights, it is only if they have a large enough capital at the beginning that they have the privilege.

But big capital also needs good planning in order to multiply it.
Don't put everything into investments, make a reserve to overcome when there are some strategies that are not suitable.
Doing DCA is a good strategy, but also supported by in-depth knowledge about trading and when to buy.

[justdimin]

If you have the privilege to double your investment, then it's a good idea to do so because it creates more opportunities to earn higher than you would have only Invested on, some people make this decision that instead of doubling it at once, they do it gradually using DCA, all our money should be reinvested back to the profitable asset like bitcoin and when the market rises then we sell and reinvest back again and so on the whole process continues.

What kind of privilege?
Multiplying an investment cannot be done easily, it requires a project that will indeed be bullish in the end and also requires patience.

All have the same rights, it is only if they have a large enough capital at the beginning that they have the privilege.

But big capital also needs good planning in order to multiply it.
Don't put everything into investments, make a reserve to overcome when there are some strategies that are not suitable.
Doing DCA is a good strategy, but also supported by in-depth knowledge about trading and when to buy.

As in you were capable of it? I assume that is what he was talking about but I think he can respond to it himself. At the end of the day we are talking about a situation where it is going to be terrible if you do not know what you are doing, and there will be some situations where it is not going to be all that easy to handle neither, we are talking about doubling here and anyone who is capable of doing that must be both good and lucky at the same time ,one of them alone can't make you get that much return.

Bull runs are there for a reason, so that you make more than double of your investment, so that when the bull run ends, you could stop making profit like that but keep the profits you have and hope that the average comes down to double per year.

[barisbilgili]

I think nearly all fellow forum members here will at least make 3x in next halving and bull run through Bitcoin and better altcoins. Its pretty much safe guess. But issue here is to make more money before halving through other methods as Bitcoin stalls a bit. If you invest into Bitcoin at the right time you would make more because your initial investment will be bigger. That's why people mainly look for other methods instead of focusing at nearly guarenteed 2x through Bitcoin.

Yes, you are right, everyone who has made an investment has certainly thought carefully about when is the right time to buy it and take advantage of what they invested, of course they have different methods from others, but in essence they will continue to double their investment to be able to get even greater profits, but we need to see when is the right time to add investment from the profits we have previously obtained so that we can still get other profits.

[inthelongrun]

I also have fewer expectations this time. But I guess reaching its previous ATH at least is conservative which means it is still over 200% growth to the current price of bitcoin. This is why I am also considering altcoins since reaching their previous ATHs will give higher returns although they are more risky of course. But we can just allocate a smaller portion of our portfolio to some altcoins, especially ethereum which based on its current price is more than 300% if it returns to its previous ATH and it is very likely to happen within this cycle.

[Vaculin]

Whether it is doubling your investment as you say, or expecting a greater pump in price, they are all speculations or predictions; and it doesn't really matter what mr A predicts or what mr X is expecting, because we cannot know what will happen and we can only wait.

What matters is that you are not buying more than you can afford to lose, and that your prediction and expectation isn't affecting your decision making in real life, if you are not doing any of these, then we can make predictions as we like and people should understand that those predictions do not influence what will eventually happen as most of them are just pulled out of a hat.

Expecting a greater pump in price is not just a mere speculation actually because we all know where this bitcoin price is heading to. Especially that halving is nearly approaching, all is really expecting a positive price feedback after that. Although predictions will remain predictions not until that certain time comes, but we know for sure that those predictions have high probability to happen. But you were right then, no matter how positive the future of bitcoin will be, we should still stick to the basic to never invest more than you can afford to lose.

However, I am very optimistic that if we start accumulating bitcoin as early as now, then it’s not far to happen to double our investment after the bitcoin halving happens. Just continue to hold bitcoin for long term, and have faith in the process. Bitcoin remains highly profitable in the end no matter how risky it is.

[Joshapat]

The trend every 4 years is unique because price increases can reach 200% or more, especially since early 2024 there will be a halving which will make mining supply increasingly difficult and the easiest thing to usually do is buy more before the busy season occurs, and buy more when Cheap prices like now are certainly the best decision.

[OgNasty]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

Those of us who have been around for a few cycles don’t think that a x4 return from here is out of the question. Almost the opposite as we’ve seen this happen every four years several times now. Sure a x2 return would be great and I wouldn’t spit at it, but at the same time, I think it’s more likely we see a x3 than a x2 this cycle.

[NewRanger]

Whether it is doubling your investment as you say, or expecting a greater pump in price, they are all speculations or predictions; and it doesn't really matter what mr A predicts or what mr X is expecting, because we cannot know what will happen and we can only wait.

What matters is that you are not buying more than you can afford to lose, and that your prediction and expectation isn't affecting your decision making in real life, if you are not doing any of these, then we can make predictions as we like and people should understand that those predictions do not influence what will eventually happen as most of them are just pulled out of a hat.

True, Normally Everyone wants profits but is not ready to lose money and I think it is also a great way to test one's trading ideas and market perspective if one has too high expectations in the world of trading.

The trend every 4 years is unique because price increases can reach 200% or more, especially since early 2024 there will be a halving which will make mining supply increasingly difficult and the easiest thing to usually do is buy more before the busy season occurs, and buy more when Cheap prices like now are certainly the best decision.

Usually when the hype goes down, prices tend to stabilize. As you explained, similar trading situations repeat themselves over time and it is also relevant if we relate them to past data and what generally happens, whatever the conditions. In fact, trend traders enter as early as possible and exit before the trend reverses.

[Greyhats]

In a traditional model, getting a return of 5%/yr is about normal. Sometimes its a little bit more and goes into double digits like 10+%. What we are saying here is we are not ok unless it goes to 100+% return.

I think everyone needs to be a bit cautious/conservative with expectations, its probably going to surpass these conservative numbers but there is no guarantee. Only invest in what you can lose