And with Bitcoin, we know for a fact that the cost of mining a single Bitcoin will go up up up. This means the value rises, but as Frank mentioned, market price is not the value. This is why looking at a speculated value instead of the price is the preferred perspective of hodlers.
There are way too many unknowable variables to define the speculational value at some future or even present time. All we know that Bitcoin is designed to become more scarce and the demand for Bitcoin is still strong, after all these years.
That seems like a projection which sparks confidence.
you got a couple details the wrong way round
although mining has many costs depending on location, electric rating and such. these variables are not "value"
"value" is the baseline CHEAPEST/MOST EFFICIENT on the planet. its the bottom edge of a window
find the most expensive inefficient mining practice and thats the premium, the top edge of a window
the PRICE speculates inbetween the edges of the window.
..
price speculates in a volatile manner. because the window has reasons why someone in hawaii has different variables than someone slovic/asian areas. but the base line value is a bottom edge no one wants to cross because no one is making profit if they sell for less. its the ultimate supportline sellers wont go below
speculation is a buzzword to say random guess. where as prediction is meant as judgement after analysis
you trying to say market prediction and value speculation. which is the wrong way round
there is more actual numbers and data to analyse and calculate value(bottomline) so value is not speculative
value is an amount below the market. value rises at a more stable slower rise compared to the market volatility.
But how do we measure value of bitcoin? I'd say it is very hard because it is decided based on supply and demand but demand is not something we can easily measure.
I'll just say supply and demand. Apart from that I don't have any further idea.
wrong and wrong
the market PRICE is lead by supply and demand .. but the VALUE is not
the most efficient mining value has fixed details. like a 2 year lifecycle of mining hardware, contracted electric, and obviously a known blockreward amount. so value is not demand/supply driven. its cost vs reward driven
lets use dairy farmers and retail stores
the dairy farmer has a firm cost of production. the value.
the retailer can price milk at anything they like to customers depending on supply or demand.
if no one wants milk this week the retailer has to discount the price to get rid of it before the milk curdles
if there is high demand for milk but not enough production from the farm. then the retailers supply is low so they raise the price and do first come first serve basis, knowing people will pay extra
dont confuse market price with value.. dont compare wholesale with retail
and remember value is the underlying cheap side.. premium is the over the top expensive side
value is not the market price
..
though i occasionally look at market price chart wiggles. i do not get excited by the market price when i am not selling..
(if im not selling then the price is meaningless to me)
instead i value my bitcoin at the most efficient method to acquire bitcoin on the planet. as that supportline locks in my wealth/value to a point no one wants to sell below
