back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak.

[rhomelmabini]

The possibilities are endless so I will remain optimistic and I do think we already bottomed and those bears are really not in good mood. A 10T cap for crypto is really possible now that institution are noticing this market, it's really just a matter of time before we finally reap what we sow of holding it.

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[hatshepsut93]

so we only need do 8x that to go over 500k and a 10 trillion cap.

Well, that's kinda my point, in the past 8x was easily doable because the price/marketcap was so low that it didn't require a lot of money to enter Bitcoin to achieve such movement. But adding trillions to marketcap is going to be hard, it would put Bitcoin in the same league as gold, and gold is desired by everyone on this planet, while Bitcoin not so much.

I can imagine the price reaching $500k for a day or two during the peak of a bull run, but it will crash hard after that to $100k.

[philipma1957]

so we only need do 8x that to go over 500k and a 10 trillion cap.

Well, that's kinda my point, in the past 8x was easily doable because the price/marketcap was so low that it didn't require a lot of money to enter Bitcoin to achieve such movement. But adding trillions to marketcap is going to be hard, it would put Bitcoin in the same league as gold, and gold is desired by everyone on this planet, while Bitcoin not so much.

I can imagine the price reaching $500k for a day or two during the peak of a bull run, but it will crash hard after that to $100k.

rocket ship up moves at not what I am looking for..  10% or 20% a month for six months in a row is not that hard.

All moves from now to 69 k are traveling on a road we have been to before.

at the 70k to 140k we are virgins so to speak 🗣️ some hands will fail and sell but I see a huge uptick. To levels you are struggling to belief.

[johnsaributua]

Six months can be called half a year for 1 independent analysis period, there are two quarters out of a total of 4 that go through in the next year, if there is a correction to soar can also be the opposite and higher, bitcoin continues to get news and friction from the past and it is carried over, maybe some of us came to take part at that time, I don't see the public view so depressed or two conditions feel left behind at this time, the countdown with percentages has started and has departed, the table is a dynamic record. If assets and the like follow the dollar price but I think bitcoin will show strong horns, step by step will take us there and beyond, we enjoy the trending with some entries with stability and implement the 8 times bitcoin will run, but i consider $35,000 as a starting point.

Yes, you realize that, sir.

[philipma1957]

Six months can be called half a year for 1 independent analysis period, there are two quarters out of a total of 4 that go through in the next year, if there is a correction to soar can also be the opposite and higher, bitcoin continues to get news and friction from the past and it is carried over, maybe some of us came to take part at that time, I don't see the public view so depressed or two conditions feel left behind at this time, the countdown with percentages has started and has departed, the table is a dynamic record. If assets and the like follow the dollar price but I think bitcoin will show strong horns, step by step will take us there and beyond, we enjoy the trending with some entries with stability and implement the 8 times bitcoin will run, but i consider $35,000 as a starting point.

Yes, you realize that, sir.

well we bounced over 35k again maybe 36k is going to fall soon.

[jasonjm]

I think we might not see a repeat of the 2015 - 2017 cycle because of the present BTC market cap. It is not realistic to compare the similar price action/ % gain. Yes, we might see similar trends, but with limited gain.
BTC bounced back to over $35k, and if the price stays above $30k in the coming few weeks, then I think we might see a price rally toward $45k or $50k in the next few months. 
The chances of market correction are also there, and we will have a price dip before the final show.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I think we might not see a repeat of the 2015 - 2017 cycle because of the present BTC market cap. It is not realistic to compare the similar price action/ % gain. Yes, we might see similar trends, but with limited gain. 

I think the same, it is normal that in the early years, the returns were stratospheric and as time has gone by, with the market cap we have now, they tend to be much more moderate. I would like to see the $500,000 that the OP is talking about for this cycle happen, but I see it as almost impossible.

[Fundamentals Of]

I think we might not see a repeat of the 2015 - 2017 cycle because of the present BTC market cap. It is not realistic to compare the similar price action/ % gain. Yes, we might see similar trends, but with limited gain. 

I think the same, it is normal that in the early years, the returns were stratospheric and as time has gone by, with the market cap we have now, they tend to be much more moderate. I would like to see the $500,000 that the OP is talking about for this cycle happen, but I see it as almost impossible.

$500,000? And for this cycle only? I also think that's next to impossible. If we stretch the time frame though, let's say 5 years to 10 years from now, $500,000 is more possible. But even with that time frame, I can't imagine Bitcoin reaching $500,000. I know that it could indeed happen, but it's just too high for my mind to imagine. We'd all be rich when that point comes. But this is not the only big prediction. We've heard of a million even. If so, then we should all be trying our best to stack as much sats as possible while the price is still cheap.

[michellee]

I think we might not see a repeat of the 2015 - 2017 cycle because of the present BTC market cap. It is not realistic to compare the similar price action/ % gain. Yes, we might see similar trends, but with limited gain. 

I think the same, it is normal that in the early years, the returns were stratospheric and as time has gone by, with the market cap we have now, they tend to be much more moderate. I would like to see the $500,000 that the OP is talking about for this cycle happen, but I see it as almost impossible.

$500,000? And for this cycle only? I also think that's next to impossible. If we stretch the time frame though, let's say 5 years to 10 years from now, $500,000 is more possible. But even with that time frame, I can't imagine Bitcoin reaching $500,000. I know that it could indeed happen, but it's just too high for my mind to imagine. We'd all be rich when that point comes. But this is not the only big prediction. We've heard of a million even. If so, then we should all be trying our best to stack as much sats as possible while the price is still cheap.

This could happen if there is massive adoption from many parties. That could push the price of Bitcoin to increase rapidly. But, indeed, getting a price of $500,000 is still too difficult for Bitcoin, although it is not impossible. If it is true that Bitcoin can get that price, many Bitcoin investors will become very, very rich. Those who have been struggling for a long time to collect Bitcoins are very satisfied if that happens.

Maybe for the next increase, Bitcoin price will be above $100,000-$150,000. That's what many speculators are talking about. But many also say that the price of Bitcoin could reach above $200,000. I don't think about what the next ATH will be. I'm speculating above $100,000 for this cycle for sure.

If the price of Bitcoin can exceed that figure, I am very happy because it exceeds my expectations. And it will provide huge profits again after the previous ATH. And it should be celebrated

[Lucius]

$500k for 1 BTC in less than 2 years can only be realized if that long-awaited spot BTC ETF is really a game-changer and then in synergy with the halving effect results in a massive bull run. However, we should not ignore the fact that the price is formed not only by increased demand, but also by increased supply, because for many long-term holders, the next bull run will very likely be the exit point.

All those millions of BTC that are speculated to be irretrievably lost could flood the market because when we finally reach the zone of six-digit numbers, few will resist dumping most of their long-held BTC. Numbers change, but people and their behavior are more or less the same and predictable.

[philipma1957]

$500k for 1 BTC in less than 2 years can only be realized if that long-awaited spot BTC ETF is really a game-changer and then in synergy with the halving effect results in a massive bull run. However, we should not ignore the fact that the price is formed not only by increased demand, but also by increased supply, because for many long-term holders, the next bull run will very likely be the exit point.

All those millions of BTC that are speculated to be irretrievably lost could flood the market because when we finally reach the zone of six-digit numbers, few will resist dumping most of their long-held BTC. Numbers change, but people and their behavior are more or less the same and predictable.

If we shot to 500k like I say by Dec 31 2025.

The first blocks that have been sitting for over 13 years should get movement.

If they don’t I would be very surprised.

I would think there are over 1,000,000 pre 2011 coins untouched

at 500,000 a coin that is more than 500 billion dollars.

I would think maybe 5% would sell off.

[Lucius]

If we shot to 500k like I say by Dec 31 2025.

The first blocks that have been sitting for over 13 years should get movement.

If they don’t I would be very surprised.

I would think there are over 1,000,000 pre 2011 coins untouched

at 500,000 a coin that is more than 500 billion dollars.

I would think maybe 5% would sell off.

We can only speculate about that, although only then we will see how much BTC was actually lost in the first years, but I still think that there are a lot more than 1 million BTC that may be waiting for the right moment to enter the market if we take into account the speculation that Satoshi mined around 1 million BTC by himself. Also, in the first reward era, the reward was 50 BTC per block, which means that 50% of all BTC was mined in the first 4 years.

Of course, we should not doubt that these long-term holders are not intelligent people who will not exclusively use CEX, but will look for some other methods such as OTC or DEX in order to prevent the influence on the price.

[philipma1957]

If we shot to 500k like I say by Dec 31 2025.

The first blocks that have been sitting for over 13 years should get movement.

If they don’t I would be very surprised.

I would think there are over 1,000,000 pre 2011 coins untouched

at 500,000 a coin that is more than 500 billion dollars.

I would think maybe 5% would sell off.

We can only speculate about that, although only then we will see how much BTC was actually lost in the first years, but I still think that there are a lot more than 1 million BTC that may be waiting for the right moment to enter the market if we take into account the speculation that Satoshi mined around 1 million BTC by himself. Also, in the first reward era, the reward was 50 BTC per block, which means that 50% of all BTC was mined in the first 4 years.

Of course, we should not doubt that these long-term holders are not intelligent people who will not exclusively use CEX, but will look for some other methods such as OTC or DEX in order to prevent the influence on the price.

Yeah lets say you have an addy with 100 coins which become 500k each.

This addy is worth 50 million. Wealthy people could cut deals off the books. Hey Joe give me an addy send the 100 coins. New guy has the coins and deal is done. This would not hurt the price at all.

[aoluain]

I read/heard somewhere that an internal memo was leaked from Blackrock who would
advise that their clients should have something like 83.5% of their portfolio in Bitcoin ^{or maybe "crypto"?}!

If that is the case any coins sold at $500k would be snapped up and never seen again
for a very long time all depending on an ETF approval of course.

There are a lot of reports out there some conjured up to make sales etc. but I definitely
think there is massive demand for Bitcoin from those who want an asset manager to look
after it for them and who have no interest in buying a Trezor and minding their seed phrase!

So that alone should fuel philipma1957's projection to $500k regardless of the 2015 comparison.

[philipma1957]

I read/heard somewhere that an internal memo was leaked from Blackrock who would
advise that their clients should have something like 83.5% of their portfolio in Bitcoin ^{or maybe "crypto"?}!

If that is the case any coins sold at $500k would be snapped up and never seen again
for a very long time all depending on an ETF approval of course.

There are a lot of reports out there some conjured up to make sales etc. but I definitely
think there is massive demand for Bitcoin from those who want an asset manager to look
after it for them and who have no interest in buying a Trezor and minding their seed phrase!

So that alone should fuel philipma1957's projection to $500k regardless of the 2015 comparison.

I have a feeling we may soar far more then the 100-145K

I even think maybe 500k is low so I am pushing very hard at this for now.

I am glad to see a few are thinking what I am thinking.

[aoluain]

When Bitcoin was valued at ~$1 there were a lot of people who couldnt comprehend the
value going to ~$100 let alone $1000. I believe Bitcoin could be entering a new phase which
will take the market into a new range which will surprise a lot more people.

[BenCodie]

While it'd great to see so much optimism in the first page  I think it would be setting the bar too high to expect 2015-like gains, or gains from any other halving for that matter. Yes institutions are involved now, but there is much more to it, such as:
- Diminishing returns
- More BTC distributed and in circulation
- More profit motivated holders (institutions, hedge funds, etc)
The above could be a good or bad thing. The first two are something to think about though. Returns achieved in a 2015 Bitcoin ecosystem and expecting the same in today's much larger ecosystem is not the best bar to set.

At the same time, seasonality does exist so I don't doubt it will be a positive few months during November, Jan, maybe even Feb too.

[philipma1957]

While it'd great to see so much optimism in the first page  I think it would be setting the bar too high to expect 2015-like gains, or gains from any other halving for that matter. Yes institutions are involved now, but there is much more to it, such as:
- Diminishing returns
- More BTC distributed and in circulation
- More profit motivated holders (institutions, hedge funds, etc)
The above could be a good or bad thing. The first two are something to think about though. Returns achieved in a 2015 Bitcoin ecosystem and expecting the same in today's much larger ecosystem is not the best bar to set.

At the same time, seasonality does exist so I don't doubt it will be a positive few months during November, Jan, maybe even Feb too.

It funny you skipped December.

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1


some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

[Fundamentals Of]

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

I noticed in your posts that you're generally optimistic rather than pessimistic. I'm not saying you're not realistic, of course. You definitely have bases in your predictions, not to mention that you've been in this game for quite a long while already.

I have a question based on your assessment. Do you see a new ATH on or before the halving? Or if it comes a bit late, still around the halving date? If so, then are we going to surpass $100,000 within 2024 alone?

[philipma1957]

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

I noticed in your posts that you're generally optimistic rather than pessimistic. I'm not saying you're not realistic, of course. You definitely have bases in your predictions, not to mention that you've been in this game for quite a long while already.

I have a question based on your assessment. Do you see a new ATH on or before the halving? Or if it comes a bit late, still around the halving date? If so, then are we going to surpass $100,000 within 2024 alone?

Dec 2024 or Nov 2024 Ath and may touch 100k in those months.

And as good as that is 2025 will bring numbers that most are too afraid to say.


If you look at any of my posts I am always mostly bullish but never a raging bull. Much more like Ferdinand
the bull.