back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak.

[OgNasty]

I think when it comes to comparing historical norms, this cycle is going to be more than most people are expecting just because of the FTX fraud and how it depressed market prices for Bitcoin artificially. The true extent of this won’t probably be realized until 2025, but I think it’s likely to show up in larger than expected gains the entire way there.

[1714841652]

1714841652

[Fundamentals Of]

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

I noticed in your posts that you're generally optimistic rather than pessimistic. I'm not saying you're not realistic, of course. You definitely have bases in your predictions, not to mention that you've been in this game for quite a long while already.

I have a question based on your assessment. Do you see a new ATH on or before the halving? Or if it comes a bit late, still around the halving date? If so, then are we going to surpass $100,000 within 2024 alone?

Dec 2024 or Nov 2024 Ath and may touch 100k in those months.

And as good as that is 2025 will bring numbers that most are too afraid to say.

If you look at any of my posts I am always mostly bullish but never a raging bull. Much more like Ferdinand
the bull.

Yes I noticed that too. You're like a tamed bull. Lol.

I'm of the suspicion that $100,000 is an attractive selling target for everybody regardless if they bought today or at $25,000, $40,000, or even higher. It is this suspicion that makes me think of taking profit before it happens, perhaps around $90,000. The selling pressure at $100,000 might be too strong. There might be a heavy correction which immediately follows after hitting that price. As an implication, 2025 might not be what you suggested.

[adaseb]

There is some speculation by some Bloomberg analyst that if sec wants to approve the etfs they will need to do it within the next 8 days starting tomorrow. No idea what this means because he also says that if they don’t approve it within this time period then he is 90% sure it will be approved by Jan 10 2024.

The fact that he put Jan 10 2024 and not sometime in Jan 2024 makes it seem it is some deadline but which deadline I don’t know exactly. Should be an interesting week.

[BenCodie]

While it'd great to see so much optimism in the first page  I think it would be setting the bar too high to expect 2015-like gains, or gains from any other halving for that matter. Yes institutions are involved now, but there is much more to it, such as:
- Diminishing returns
- More BTC distributed and in circulation
- More profit motivated holders (institutions, hedge funds, etc)
The above could be a good or bad thing. The first two are something to think about though. Returns achieved in a 2015 Bitcoin ecosystem and expecting the same in today's much larger ecosystem is not the best bar to set.

At the same time, seasonality does exist so I don't doubt it will be a positive few months during November, Jan, maybe even Feb too.

It funny you skipped December.

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1


some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

Haha yes i did indeed. Not intentional, though November & December are historically quite similar in most markets, being that there is usually quite a bit of positive activity. In terms of the speculation maybe you're right, but it is anyones guess. The market has a habit of taking us by surprise, especially when it comes to bitcoin and crypto.

Some things I will say is about the halving...
The halving itself is usually a non event. The lead up to it can generate some excitement, but historically, the effects have taken full effect on the market in the 6-18 months after the halving.

What will be most interesting is the trajectory between now and roughly September/October next year. We should also note that there are several outflows occurring, FTX (if they settle) and Mtgox namely. Their settlements will be something to keep an eye on. Yes we have heard about mtgox over and over for a while, though the deadline for repayments is now October 2024. It will be interesting to see how that effects the market.

[wiss19]

I wouldn't really assume that the exact same thing could happen, 2015 was a very low period so getting that high wasn't that hard, now requires much more money. But I also think that the increase will happen one way or another, maybe not that much, maybe not that quickly, but it will certainly go up, I am sure of that. I think it's quite important to realize that bitcoin is something that we could benefit a lot from if given enough time, we need to just arrange something that needs to be done properly.

We can't rush into these things, so we need to end up doing something that needs to be a lot better, and that could be an important deal in the end, and must be given enough attention and care and time for it to bloom properly.

[ultrloa]

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

I noticed in your posts that you're generally optimistic rather than pessimistic. I'm not saying you're not realistic, of course. You definitely have bases in your predictions, not to mention that you've been in this game for quite a long while already.

I have a question based on your assessment. Do you see a new ATH on or before the halving? Or if it comes a bit late, still around the halving date? If so, then are we going to surpass $100,000 within 2024 alone?

Dec 2024 or Nov 2024 Ath and may touch 100k in those months.

And as good as that is 2025 will bring numbers that most are too afraid to say.

If you look at any of my posts I am always mostly bullish but never a raging bull. Much more like Ferdinand
the bull.

Yes I noticed that too. You're like a tamed bull. Lol.

I'm of the suspicion that $100,000 is an attractive selling target for everybody regardless if they bought today or at $25,000, $40,000, or even higher. It is this suspicion that makes me think of taking profit before it happens, perhaps around $90,000. The selling pressure at $100,000 might be too strong. There might be a heavy correction which immediately follows after hitting that price. As an implication, 2025 might not be what you suggested.

If we base on past events yes we could really see that happening so we really better know when to secure our profit since its hard for us to encounter another bearish season after it pump for a new all time high since for sure we will regret again that we never learn our lesson. So $100k is quiet huge amount target to take our profit but I would also consider how much price it would provably reach and by month of December whatever price it will take will surely take profit since I'm also speculating a dump after that.

Will stick to my plan no matter what so hopefully we can see more great things and people should stick to their plan set and always remember that any amount of profit is always good rather than we lose for expecting to much since its really dumb decision for us to take huge mistakes when opportunity is knocking on our doors.

[STT]

OBV indicator shows volume has been enough recently for us to continue upwards however we can still see that most of the trade volume was at the beginning of this move above 30k.   To check back properly on that with a pullback is alot safer, I think some will say it can happen now or later with more drama at a higher price so its better for it to occur now.

[bitgolden]

We can only speculate about that, although only then we will see how much BTC was actually lost in the first years, but I still think that there are a lot more than 1 million BTC that may be waiting for the right moment to enter the market if we take into account the speculation that Satoshi mined around 1 million BTC by himself. Also, in the first reward era, the reward was 50 BTC per block, which means that 50% of all BTC was mined in the first 4 years.

Of course, we should not doubt that these long-term holders are not intelligent people who will not exclusively use CEX, but will look for some other methods such as OTC or DEX in order to prevent the influence on the price.

I do not think that there are that many coins that are waiting to enter the market, it just doesn't feel like a million would be realistic approach. Plus, the market is already accumulating a lot, there are just companies with thousands and thousands of bitcoins, and they may enter the market if they want to, but we all know that it is not going to end up with something that could change it in the end.

Hopefully, it could reach to a point where we could see something that could change things in the end. I believe that we could end up with a situation that could be a lot more important on the long run, and at this moment we are looking at something that won't be changing anytime soon when we reach that higher price. I get that some people do expect it to change a lot, but I bet that it won't have that type of drastic change all that quickly, we could see some drops here and there but the increases will be a lot more common if you ask me for sure.

[philipma1957]

We can only speculate about that, although only then we will see how much BTC was actually lost in the first years, but I still think that there are a lot more than 1 million BTC that may be waiting for the right moment to enter the market if we take into account the speculation that Satoshi mined around 1 million BTC by himself. Also, in the first reward era, the reward was 50 BTC per block, which means that 50% of all BTC was mined in the first 4 years.

Of course, we should not doubt that these long-term holders are not intelligent people who will not exclusively use CEX, but will look for some other methods such as OTC or DEX in order to prevent the influence on the price.

I do not think that there are that many coins that are waiting to enter the market, it just doesn't feel like a million would be realistic approach. Plus, the market is already accumulating a lot, there are just companies with thousands and thousands of bitcoins, and they may enter the market if they want to, but we all know that it is not going to end up with something that could change it in the end.

Hopefully, it could reach to a point where we could see something that could change things in the end. I believe that we could end up with a situation that could be a lot more important on the long run, and at this moment we are looking at something that won't be changing anytime soon when we reach that higher price. I get that some people do expect it to change a lot, but I bet that it won't have that type of drastic change all that quickly, we could see some drops here and there but the increases will be a lot more common if you ask me for sure.

From the open post

"If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1.       close as  we were around 38.8 k on the first and now  39.5k

42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1."

opinons and guesses?
We are close to my opening post

[Greyhats]

I would be really happy for it continue these small pumps, then stabilising for a bit then going up again. Feels like resistance is being built for the future. I do wonder too have miners stopped selling and are hoarding a bit before the halving. 48k by Mar tho Phil sounds more realistic , but who knows maybe 3/15 might be a better day

[philipma1957]

I would be really happy for it continue these small pumps, then stabilising for a bit then going up again. Feels like resistance is being built for the future. I do wonder too have miners stopped selling and are hoarding a bit before the halving. 48k by Mar tho Phil sounds more realistic , but who knows maybe 3/15 might be a better day

Well we got close to 45k.

then dropped.

time will tell.

[naikturun]

I think when it comes to comparing historical norms, this cycle is going to be more than most people are expecting just because of the FTX fraud and how it depressed market prices for Bitcoin artificially. The true extent of this won’t probably be realized until 2025, but I think it’s likely to show up in larger than expected gains the entire way there.

Currently we have gone through quite serious issues such as CZ's withdrawal due to allegations made by the SEC, but we see that the market is responding stably and unlike before, if there was bad news, Bitcoin would immediately go down and vice versa.
Is it possible that there are so many people buying bitcoin that a party can use the fud and fomo strategy like before?

[Baofeng]

I would be really happy for it continue these small pumps, then stabilising for a bit then going up again. Feels like resistance is being built for the future. I do wonder too have miners stopped selling and are hoarding a bit before the halving. 48k by Mar tho Phil sounds more realistic , but who knows maybe 3/15 might be a better day

Well we got close to 45k.

then dropped.

time will tell.

Yes, that's also another scenario that after hitting $45k then we might see some corrections. But so far price has a support at $43k-$44k. So we will see what is going to be the top of this bullish wave that we are seeing.

So there is a potential to reach $48k as you have predicted, or go on correction, at least in the $40k'ish.

Either case this year is really good for us and we no longer have any black swan events like last year.

[AnonBitCoiner]

I would be really happy for it continue these small pumps, then stabilising for a bit then going up again. Feels like resistance is being built for the future. I do wonder too have miners stopped selling and are hoarding a bit before the halving. 48k by Mar tho Phil sounds more realistic , but who knows maybe 3/15 might be a better day

Continues pump is very rare in cryptocurrency market and it cannot subsist up until halving and slight dump will surely take place. You will have experience that bitcoin hit the value of 44k$ after which it slightly reduces to 43k$ and now it is 41k$ which means that market is facing slight dump.

This dump is not a serious situation but it is going to ready for big pump in coming year. This year the bitcoin will touch 45k$ and we will examine different worth from upper value to lower value till April which means that market cannot stand with a single value always.

[michellee]

I would be really happy for it continue these small pumps, then stabilising for a bit then going up again. Feels like resistance is being built for the future. I do wonder too have miners stopped selling and are hoarding a bit before the halving. 48k by Mar tho Phil sounds more realistic , but who knows maybe 3/15 might be a better day

Continues pump is very rare in cryptocurrency market and it cannot subsist up until halving and slight dump will surely take place. You will have experience that bitcoin hit the value of 44k$ after which it slightly reduces to 43k$ and now it is 41k$ which means that market is facing slight dump.

This dump is not a serious situation but it is going to ready for big pump in coming year. This year the bitcoin will touch 45k$ and we will examine different worth from upper value to lower value till April which means that market cannot stand with a single value always.

After pumping, there will be a correction and that has often happened in the past. So when the price yesterday pumped up to $44k, now it is correction time and this is a small correction. The current price is still at $41k but is increasing little by little. Maybe after this, there will be another pump.

That's why we must always be prepared for whatever happens. And because we are at the end of the year, there may be a rather big correction. But hopefully, at the end of the year, there will be a surprise regarding the price increase.

Hopefully, by the end of the year, Bitcoin's price can touch above $45k, although we don't know if that will actually happen or if there will be a dump like yesterday. But after the halving, there will be an increase in the price of Bitcoin. Maybe later there will be a long rally that we have been waiting for.

[philipma1957]

I would be really happy for it continue these small pumps, then stabilising for a bit then going up again. Feels like resistance is being built for the future. I do wonder too have miners stopped selling and are hoarding a bit before the halving. 48k by Mar tho Phil sounds more realistic , but who knows maybe 3/15 might be a better day

Continues pump is very rare in cryptocurrency market and it cannot subsist up until halving and slight dump will surely take place. You will have experience that bitcoin hit the value of 44k$ after which it slightly reduces to 43k$ and now it is 41k$ which means that market is facing slight dump.

This dump is not a serious situation but it is going to ready for big pump in coming year. This year the bitcoin will touch 45k$ and we will examine different worth from upper value to lower value till April which means that market cannot stand with a single value always.

After pumping, there will be a correction and that has often happened in the past. So when the price yesterday pumped up to $44k, now it is correction time and this is a small correction. The current price is still at $41k but is increasing little by little. Maybe after this, there will be another pump.

That's why we must always be prepared for whatever happens. And because we are at the end of the year, there may be a rather big correction. But hopefully, at the end of the year, there will be a surprise regarding the price increase.

Hopefully, by the end of the year, Bitcoin's price can touch above $45k, although we don't know if that will actually happen or if there will be a dump like yesterday. But after the halving, there will be an increase in the price of Bitcoin. Maybe later there will be a long rally that we have been waiting for.

It is back up due to good fed news also the market went to a new ATH .  So we may yet get to my predicted 48k+

[WatChe]

It is back up due to good fed news also the market went to a new ATH .  So we may yet get to my predicted 48k+

If this is due to FED then we expect Bitcoin to go further up in 2024 as FED signals three cuts in 2024. Further decline in interest rate will boost investment options like Bitcoin or stock market. We have halving also coming up, so chances are we see some huge surge in Bitcoin price next year.

[philipma1957]

2015 Sept up 2.82%
2015 Oct.  up 31.92%
2015 Nov  up  21.44%
2015 Dec  up  13.75%

here we are 8 years later

2023 Sept 3.95%
2023 Oct 28.51%
2023 Nov ?
2023 Dec ?


I looked at the post below to come up with my 2015 to 2023 comparison.

will we repeat this?

It's funny to see that October is the most successful month for Bitcoin. This has probably already become firmly anchored in people's minds, so that all market participants act accordingly. A self-fulfilling prophecy in that sense.

Yes, this October was no exception and bitcoin didn't just rise, it broke resistance that couldn't be broken all of 2023. But I doubt about the psychology that it happened naturally, September was also green, although it was almost always red.

Naturally or not, initially it was the effect of Cointelegraph giving invalid news about ETF acceptance that FOMO occurred and many bought Bitcoin at this time so that it broke the $30k resistance, then indeed dumped after the news was not true.
But the next effect is like a snowball that makes market conditions better and until now it is able to hold at $34k + +.

October was a green month and we are about to enter November which in the last 2 years has always shown a drastic decline.
Will the trend change?
we will see.

If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1
42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1.

opinons and guesses?

So we got to 42.3k a few days late. around dec 4

do we go to 48.1k 8 or 9 days late. we did top 47.1k today.

[philipma1957]

we did get to 48.9k

well lets see the next few months.

[pinggoki]

we did get to 48.9k

well lets see the next few months.

I hope that we'll be getting news that will drive the prices down more because I don't want to buy bitcoin at this price right now and it's a pain for me to let my fiat stay like that, my DCA doesn't cut it anymore because the money that I'm getting from my salary is just continuously coming in, the bills are paid and the necessities are all good but the leftover money is just sitting there menacingly tempting me to spend on stuff that I don't need.