What are the odds of guessing someone's private key or seedphrase?

[headingnorth]

Another way to ask this question is, what are the odds of any two people generating the same private key at any time?

The answer for this question is pretty interesting, but to make  long story short, you have a better chance of winning the lotto 9 times in a row.

Bitcoin private keys uses SHA-256, which is the number 2 to the 256 power. Which is an unfathomably large number.
If you counted all the grains of sand on planet earth and all the drops of water in all the oceans on earth, you would not even come close to that number!


More detailed explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eZ5DP2P5As

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[Bananington]

Another way to ask this question is, what are the odds of any two people generating the same private key at any time?

The answer for this question is pretty interesting, but to make  long story short, you have a better chance of winning the lotto 9 times in a row.

Bitcoin private keys uses SHA-256, which is the number 2 to the 256 power. Which is an unfathomably large number.
If you counted all the grains of sand on planet earth and all the drops of water in all the oceans on earth, you would not even come close to that number!


More detailed explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eZ5DP2P5As

The odds would be zero I must say, because the private keys are auto generated, unless you change them to popular phrases you can remember or know with a group of people just like a mime, it would be very difficult, if not impossible for anyone to guess someone's private key or seed phrase.

[nelson4lov]

Until quantum computers become a thing and is made available in the commercial markets, then it's nearly impossible to crack a private key. Even if an attacker wants to use brute force to gain access, the required efforts far outweighs the potential reward which is why no one really attempts it.

Also, it's worth noting that the SHA-256 cryptography algorithm hasn't been broken yet.

[AmoreJaz]

Until quantum computers become a thing and is made available in the commercial markets, then it's nearly impossible to crack a private key. Even if an attacker wants to use brute force to gain access, the required efforts far outweighs the potential reward which is why no one really attempts it.

Also, it's worth noting that the SHA-256 cryptography algorithm hasn't been broken yet.

in our time, i don't think it is possible. but yeah, if quantum computers will be just a normal one in the future, maybe. but for now, don't expect that someone will guess those priv keys.
the odds are indeed impossible. maybe, some are already trying their very best, but they will only disappoint themselves.

[nelson4lov]

Until quantum computers become a thing and is made available in the commercial markets, then it's nearly impossible to crack a private key. Even if an attacker wants to use brute force to gain access, the required efforts far outweighs the potential reward which is why no one really attempts it.

Also, it's worth noting that the SHA-256 cryptography algorithm hasn't been broken yet.

in our time, i don't think it is possible. but yeah, if quantum computers will be just a normal one in the future, maybe. but for now, don't expect that someone will guess those priv keys.
the odds are indeed impossible. maybe, some are already trying their very best, but they will only disappoint themselves.

Affirmative. That was the point I was trying to drive home. It's theoretically possible but the effort it would take to achieve it is not worth it even with the fastest available computers today. That's why attackers don't try to guess or regenerate a private key or seed phrase. Except they have shit ton of money they'd like to waste without any expectations of getting something back.

[JollyGood]

Another way to ask this question is, what are the odds of any two people generating the same private key at any time?

The answer for this question is pretty interesting, but to make  long story short, you have a better chance of winning the lotto 9 times in a row.

Bitcoin private keys uses SHA-256, which is the number 2 to the 256 power. Which is an unfathomably large number.
If you counted all the grains of sand on planet earth and all the drops of water in all the oceans on earth, you would not even come close to that number!


More detailed explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eZ5DP2P5As

I have not viewed the video link but what I will state is that if the chances of winning the lottery 9 times consecutive and the grains of sand and drops of water on earth are true, then that would explain why (as far as I know) nobody has ever claimed they lost their funds as a result of duplicated private keys.

The odds would be zero I must say, because the private keys are auto generated, unless you change them to popular phrases you can remember or know with a group of people just like a mime, it would be very difficult, if not impossible for anyone to guess someone's private key or seed phrase.

Until I read this thread, I cannot recall ever thinking about this before. There are numerical chances of it happening do exist but it is almost impossible for such an event to take place.

[digaran]

Bitcoin private keys uses SHA-256, which is the number 2 to the 256 power.

Where did you hear that? I hope your youtube video is not misinformed as you are, because sha256 has nothing to do with private keys. And if want to know how hard it is to "guess" or generate a key twice, considering your wallet is using standard implementation, you can write down 78 digits in decimal and see how hard it really could be.
Your number which you can pick, must not have first three digits greater than 115.  Because this is the limit, any number greater than this would be invalid:

Code:

115792089237316195423570985008687907852837564279074904382605163141518161494336

[jossiel]

Until quantum computers become a thing and is made available in the commercial markets, then it's nearly impossible to crack a private key. Even if an attacker wants to use brute force to gain access, the required efforts far outweighs the potential reward which is why no one really attempts it.

Also, it's worth noting that the SHA-256 cryptography algorithm hasn't been broken yet.

This is what they say about quantum computers but until we haven't see it happen, it's unlikely that this is possible through it. I think that I have already heard this like more than 6 years ago but with how fast technology evolves today, I don't think that we should worry with quantum computers and they'll just mostly used commercially.

Except they have shit ton of money they'd like to waste without any expectations of getting something back.

That can be an expensive experiment for them just to have nothing in the end.

[serjent05]

Theories are theories, everything is possible in theory but when it is applied in real case scenario, the odds of guessing someone's key or seedphrase is near to impossible, if not impossible.  I believe even with the generation of more advanced quantum computing, it will take a long time to decipher anyone's seed phrase or private key.

We can agree to disagree unless there is proof that QC will be able to guess a private key, it is still considered that guessing someone's private key is an impossible job.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Well, since my journey through the crypto space, there have never been any cases of lost funds due to similar private key or seed phrases. It's usually a 24 or 12 seed phrase combination of different words, and no matter how you guess, you can never guess the right words. Even if you are lucky enough to guess some words, you will never be able to combine them correctly. The system always has ways of generating a Bitcoin address and a private key in such a way that even if 100 addresses are generated in a day with the same wallet app, it can never give an address with the same private key.

[PX-Z]

Odds are very low that it's very useless and too expensive to try. About the QC overtaking it, it's early for that even if the odds become higher with the current technology and hashing method probably bitcoin private keys generation will also evolve. And talking about QC evolving, that also means banks security and most internet (www) security is in danger and will probably evolve.

[digaran]

The system always has ways of generating a Bitcoin address and a private key in such a way that even if 100 addresses are generated in a day with the same wallet app, it can never give an address with the same private key.

The system you are referring to actually has the ability to generate almost all the possible addresses, I'm just not sure exactly how many addresses a master private key can generate, but deterministic wallets which everyone is using nowadays are useful for that they can regenerate all your addresses by feeding them with the correct seed phrase.

And even if you could generate 100,000 trillion trillion addresses per second, it'd be possible to see the end of the universe than generating the same private key twice.

But theoretically you could generate 2 different private keys unlocking the same address after generating 2^80 keys.

[Winterfrost]

Another way to ask this question is, what are the odds of any two people generating the same private key at any time?

The answer for this question is pretty interesting, but to make  long story short, you have a better chance of winning the lotto 9 times in a row.

Bitcoin private keys uses SHA-256, which is the number 2 to the 256 power. Which is an unfathomably large number.
If you counted all the grains of sand on planet earth and all the drops of water in all the oceans on earth, you would not even come close to that number!


More detailed explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eZ5DP2P5As

Certainly, the odds of correctly guessing someone's seed phrase or private key are low due to the vast array of possible combinations. This makes it highly impossible for any existing seed phrase to be generated again by chance. Even if you were given a 1000 years to leave on earth, the chances of guessing a positive seed phrase are as high as spending your entire life on earth.

[btc78]

think about it like this:

Add 164 and 158 together and it gives you 322 but will so 200 and 122; 199 and 123 and so on. Imagine if only gave you the value 322 and ask you to figure out what values can be added to get 322There's already a lot of possible combinations that it might probably take you a respectable amount of time just from that number alone now sha 256 is a lot more complicated than that and mean a lot more sha 256 can not be decrypted because it doesn't use encryption in the first place guess the proper term is reverse it but then you really can't because it operates in only one direction and impossible to go back in the opposite direction

the chances of two users generating the same private key is straightforwardly, rare

[headingnorth]

Bitcoin private keys uses SHA-256, which is the number 2 to the 256 power.

Where did you hear that? I hope your youtube video is not misinformed as you are, because sha256 has nothing to do with private keys. And if want to know how hard it is to "guess" or generate a key twice, considering your wallet is using standard implementation, you can write down 78 digits in decimal and see how hard it really could be.
Your number which you can pick, must not have first three digits greater than 115.  Because this is the limit, any number greater than this would be invalid:

Code:

115792089237316195423570985008687907852837564279074904382605163141518161494336

This thread is meant to be an explanation in lay terms, not a very technical one. Most of us don't have time to read a textbook or take classes on hashing algorithms and the theory behind it.

But to say that sha256 has nothing to do with private keys proves that you have zero clue about what you are talking about, and I won't  waste my time attempting to explain things to the ignorant  know-it-alls who think they know everything. I suggest you enroll in some classes at your local community college and you might learn something.

[Darker45]

I'm wondering, given how fast technology is developing in this age, will there be a way in the future by which private keys could be deciphered?

We've been here in the same situation in the past right? Can we compare this with cars, planes, submarines, bombs, electricity, phones, computer, internet? A hundred years ago, it would have been unimaginable for young kids to have their own gadgets which can perform astronomical computations. Today, it's nothing amazing.

I mean, will there be a time when household or personal computers are powerful enough to guess private keys? If we look back, it seems very possible.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

You can not.

A total Bitcoin private key is 10^77 and the total atoms in the universe is 10^80. Guessing, finding a Bitcoin private key is like finding an atom in the universe. It is impossible.

Can Someone Guess My Crypto Private Key? [From Sand, to Molecules, to the Observable Universe]

You need to open a Pandora Box with super luckiness to find a Bitcoin private key.

[ImThour]

It's not even possible for anyone in this world to guess someone's private key. Forget guessing, you can't even use any tool available create any tool or even use the most trending technology in this world called AI to crack someone's private key or seedphrase. The amount of resources it needs to compute the private key can be used to mine new Bitcoins instead of wasting it on finding or guessing someone's key.

In short words, it's impossible.

[Helena Yu]

Someone who think the security in Bitcoin is low can try yourself by input 12-24 words randomly base on BIP39 word list. Bitcoin is really transparent, you can view every codes in their Github, you can access the wallet free without any cost and everything.

Being 100% transparent could increase vulnerability risk, but why Bitcoin is never get hacked? answer it by yourself.

[adaseb]

Yeah I’ve also worried about this but after doing research its impossible to guess someone’s private key or any BTC address with a balance on it that was created with a proper wallet.

You don’t realize how large these private keys are and what computing power is required to be able to solve any key. So you can rest assured that your private key is safe as long as you practice strong cold storage or hardware wallet security practices.