I posted this on another thread, but it seems more appropriate here.
It seems to be pretty neutral at the moment. But everyone seems to think that the halving next year will trigger a massive bull rally, and this confuses me.
If everyone already knows about the halving, the wouldn't it be baked in? I seem to be the only one that thinks it ain't gonna make a difference in the price
It's not about what everyone thinks, it's about what they will do when the halving is near or has already happened because it's mostly the actions that affect the market and not the thoughts of people, the thoughts only provoke actions which in return change the dynamics of the market. As soon as people start buying more and selling less, the market will start going up because the demand will keep increasing while the supply will stay limited due to a smaller number of sellers than buyers.
That's why, what you are thinking isn't right, the fact that everyone knows about halving will make the changes more clear and effective, the more people come to know about it, we will have more curiosity and more hope and we all know that when there is hope, people tend to have high expectations and for their expectations, they put in some money as well.