India is the new economic leader of global south. And replacement for China?...

[WillyAp]

In fact, when low wages become something that is determined by a country, there will be subsidies from the government that help reduce the burden on people who have low wages, but the issue of low wages has become something that is discussed in many countries, even my own country Indonesia, might be interesting.

Rather by the narrow vision of Business owners.
They do not see that a well paid employee is also your ambassador, your client in the future and brings in more business.

I was present at a meeting where a successful businessman offered a 50$ Wage for a 6 days a week programmer position. I could not believe it.

[DrBeer]

...

I don't think the low wage in a country is an advantage their economic growth, because low earnings people is also closely related to their ability to expenditure which means that they are not a good market. Low wages may lead to attract foreign investment, but low-wage workers have limited purchasing power, hindering domestic consumption and stifling demand for any products. The reasons companies or investment come into a country are not only for a good business to start, but also a good market for products to sell. Sustainable economic growth is the main reason for a country to gain power in global.

In fact, when low wages become something that is determined by a country, there will be subsidies from the government that help reduce the burden on people who have low wages, but the issue of low wages has become something that is discussed in many countries, even my own country Indonesia, might be interesting. investment interest but economic growth will be very stagnant.
From my point of view low wages are not much different from modern colonialism, but it is all a decision of the government of each country, because investors may be interested but large social disparities will not be avoided.
However, if the india government wants to compete with China, they must set low wages for workers in their country so that investors are interested.

Low wages - yes, this is one part of the investment attractiveness. This is a problem, of course, and a problem of the local government, but for companies, a low wage component is a reduction in production costs. This means a more competitive price of goods/services.
But when investors come - the income level of the local population will grow. As it happened in China - no one will work there now "for food". And it is also a benefit for the country receiving investments and investors !
Additional benefits - development of industries, improvement of economic situation in the regions, additional revenues to the budget, infrastructure development.

[so98nn]

They are playing strategically. Its amazing to see how their involvement with different warfares and global issues is always and all the time based on diplomatic ways. That is what making them win the current era economics. They are being vigilant and they do not switch sides at all. If they are friends with one then they are friends with that nation at all cost no matter what other countries say about them. They handled everything perfectly from pandemic till different wars from middle globe and neighbouring countries. I think they do not need anymore certification on how to act as global leader whenever it is necessary. They have perfect leaders, perfect system to tackle the internal and external affairs. Imagine being most populated country with whole new realm of problems yet they stand still when it comes to building diplomatic relationship management. 

[panganib999]

India is the new leader of the global south .... And a replacement for China ?

China has recently started to openly surrender its position. both politically and economically.
politics is not the place to discuss, but the economy leaves much to be desired. Although it is partly a consequence of politics )

But to the main point - in the "Global South" today there is a situation when yesterday's leader, China, can no longer fulfill this role (although it wants to), and no one can take this place except India, due to many reasons.

At the same time, India looks much more attractive to the "Global West" than China, which has decided to go into a dictatorship inside, and has a rather dubious foreign policy. China has ceased to be a profitable global factory, plus purely political contradictions with the West. It was the outflow of Western investments, and the decline in demand of the Western market for products manufactured in China, that became the catalyst that accelerated the 3 processes:
- Import growth
- Reduced exports.
- And as a consequence, a shrinking trade surplus.

At the same time, a very complicated situation is brewing inside China with a chain of bankruptcies of budget-forming companies. Of course, China will hide it, but as they say "you can't cheat arithmetic, and 2+3 will never be 10". Another problem is the relocation of Western assembly sites from China. Large regional high-tech companies are also leaving Chinese sites - for example, Samsung.

And guess where all this is moving to ? That's right - to INDIA ! Stable, predictable, adopting the Western vector of development, and moving away from contacts with "dubious countries". India does not "beat in hysterics of dedolarization", does not conduct dubious negotiations, and does not support economic terrorism of some other countries against the world economy. India benefits from stability, long-term mutually beneficial relations with the developed world, a well-deserved place in the world economy and financial system, and realization of its regional ambitions, which China is beginning to lose by failing to implement 2 projects:
- "Yuanization" of the BRICS countries
- An attempt to "put the same BRICS club members on the needle" of importing Chinese products.
It was a poorly concealed but absolutely understandable attempt to save the economy, but ...

What about India? A country with a huge territory and great human potential, developed industry, and long-established ties with the Western world. India has a very good education, and not a small middle class, with good education from western educational institutions. In India, stealing Western technology is not part of the economy as it is in China, for example. In terms of logistics to EU and African countries, India is more conveniently located. Plus in India there is no problem of population aging, which started to give itself in China "thanks to" the policy - "one family - one child". It is also worth paying attention to the IT market - it is perfectly developed in India and continues to compete with other markets. Plus - wiser, more balanced and liberal business policy is what China is losing and will not contribute to the free development of the economy.


So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?

Highly unlikely, the thing is that India is good and all but it doesn't have the recipe to create an economy robust enough for it to topple China's powerful economy over. Let's just talk about hygiene and basic education, which in some parts of the country is still a foreign topic. China doesn't have this problem, for crying out loud they even have convoluting education systems that literally equip students with extreme levels of information, imagine going to school at 6 am and going home at 9 pm, 6 days a week. No wonder they are great at what they do.

They also seclude their wealth within themselves, which is something that India doesn't do, they export, they outsource, elites in the country can transfer their wealth willy-nilly without having to go through extreme processes before they can even transfer a sliver of it out of the country. China has that up their sleeves which effectively also pumps the value of Yuan by a staggering amount.

[DrBeer]

.....
Highly unlikely, the thing is that India is good and all but it doesn't have the recipe to create an economy robust enough for it to topple China's powerful economy over. Let's just talk about hygiene and basic education, which in some parts of the country is still a foreign topic. China doesn't have this problem, for crying out loud they even have convoluting education systems that literally equip students with extreme levels of information, imagine going to school at 6 am and going home at 9 pm, 6 days a week. No wonder they are great at what they do.

They also seclude their wealth within themselves, which is something that India doesn't do, they export, they outsource, elites in the country can transfer their wealth willy-nilly without having to go through extreme processes before they can even transfer a sliver of it out of the country. China has that up their sleeves which effectively also pumps the value of Yuan by a staggering amount.

India should not have the goal of "destroying China's economy". India's goal should be to make its economy BETTER. Especially, once again, the Chinese economy today has huge problems. And what we are seeing is just the tip of the iceberg. The flight of investors and money from China, can play into India's hands - they can host these billions of dollars on their territory. Yes, a lot of work will have to be done, a lot of changes will have to be made. But China did not build its economy in a year, it took almost 30 years. Now the world has "sped up" and now, with good potential, it can be done much faster, maybe 10 +/- years, so that India just takes the initiative and continues to develop its economy, against the backdrop of China's faltering economy

[lixer]

I think it is very much possible, but it will take indian more than a decade to reach the height of china in terms of industrial output.
Look at china's industrial system, and recently they are forming a very strong relationship with Russia who have the raw materials required to take there economy and trades the a different level.
I really do believe that it will take india years to even match their industrial output, but as for now India is not ready yet for such a position now.

This is also what @jrrsparkles said in the first page/post that it will take India a decade. Maybe you haven't noticed it? But, no doubt that almost anyone will think about that, judging how India moves or looks like. Of course, we are no way of insulting or making fun of them, but we are only telling what we think, in response to this topic here. I'd like to add in, that China won't also be idle during those periods.

So if ever India have improved a lot, I'm afraid that China is still going to be ahead of them. China and Russia, are already a long time best friends. But, maybe what you said there is also true that their friendship nowadays have even became more stronger or sweeter than ever. I'm not sure if I will be happy about that though.

[DrBeer]

I think it is very much possible, but it will take indian more than a decade to reach the height of china in terms of industrial output.
Look at china's industrial system, and recently they are forming a very strong relationship with Russia who have the raw materials required to take there economy and trades the a different level.
I really do believe that it will take india years to even match their industrial output, but as for now India is not ready yet for such a position now.

This is also what @jrrsparkles said in the first page/post that it will take India a decade. Maybe you haven't noticed it? But, no doubt that almost anyone will think about that, judging how India moves or looks like. Of course, we are no way of insulting or making fun of them, but we are only telling what we think, in response to this topic here. I'd like to add in, that China won't also be idle during those periods.

So if ever India have improved a lot, I'm afraid that China is still going to be ahead of them. China and Russia, are already a long time best friends. But, maybe what you said there is also true that their friendship nowadays have even became more stronger or sweeter than ever. I'm not sure if I will be happy about that though.

There's just a little nuance. China's economy is in a very difficult situation, and the saddest thing for China is that the Chinese government is pursuing a course of worsening ties with the West, which may look like suicide for an export-oriented economy. And Russia is just a raw material appendage and a "guinea pig" for China to test the world's reaction to certain "irritants". so it is hard to call their alliance one that can greatly improve the situation in the Chinese economy. India, on the contrary, is strengthening ties with the developed Western world and adhering to international laws and agreements.

[jrrsparkles]

I think it is very much possible, but it will take indian more than a decade to reach the height of china in terms of industrial output.
Look at china's industrial system, and recently they are forming a very strong relationship with Russia who have the raw materials required to take there economy and trades the a different level.
I really do believe that it will take india years to even match their industrial output, but as for now India is not ready yet for such a position now.

This is also what @jrrsparkles said in the first page/post that it will take India a decade. Maybe you haven't noticed it? But, no doubt that almost anyone will think about that, judging how India moves or looks like. Of course, we are no way of insulting or making fun of them, but we are only telling what we think, in response to this topic here. I'd like to add in, that China won't also be idle during those periods.

So if ever India have improved a lot, I'm afraid that China is still going to be ahead of them. China and Russia, are already a long time best friends. But, maybe what you said there is also true that their friendship nowadays have even became more stronger or sweeter than ever. I'm not sure if I will be happy about that though.

There's just a little nuance. China's economy is in a very difficult situation, and the saddest thing for China is that the Chinese government is pursuing a course of worsening ties with the West, which may look like suicide for an export-oriented economy. And Russia is just a raw material appendage and a "guinea pig" for China to test the world's reaction to certain "irritants". so it is hard to call their alliance one that can greatly improve the situation in the Chinese economy. India, on the contrary, is strengthening ties with the developed Western world and adhering to international laws and agreements.

China is still in the driving position, if western countries boycott China then they have nowhere else to go that is why the Western countries are thriving to find multiple alternatives to manufacture their products and I think I already mentioned about Apple as an example for this. India, Russia and China have weird bond too when it comes to international trade and no government can influence them to change their government's decisions like buying oil from Russia.

[WillyAp]

One factor often underestimated is that politics is made by humans.
Those humans feel rage, pride, desperation and other feeling which can lead to non rational decision taking
i.e. Russia freeing Ukraine from their Nazis, or their attack on Ukraine, depending on which side you are on.

[Sithara007]

It’s true opinion from your side,I had really appreciated it.Because the economy of the China is not the imaginable one to the India.Even though the population of both the country was almost equal and in future India may overtake China.But the government of China using their people as their power to lead their economy.India people also had huge potential,in many countries the top position in the government was owned by the Indian Origin.But many Indian inventions was not recognised by their own country government.As I had seen many documentary related to this issue.But still Indian government was not ready to change their policies and political influence in the scheme which only favoured the other country corporate.The politicians should changed for this significant change in Indian economy.

Brain drain is a major issue faced by India. As a result of affirmative action policies everywhere, those who belong to the unreserved classes migrate to western nations at the first available chance. Now even the reserved category people have started emigrating abroad. And all this is having a negative impact on sectors such as healthcare and education. But rather than phasing out such policies, the government has been increasing the quota year after year. At present, it is 75%, and very soon it will become 100%.

[DrBeer]

I think it is very much possible, but it will take indian more than a decade to reach the height of china in terms of industrial output.
Look at china's industrial system, and recently they are forming a very strong relationship with Russia who have the raw materials required to take there economy and trades the a different level.
I really do believe that it will take india years to even match their industrial output, but as for now India is not ready yet for such a position now.

This is also what @jrrsparkles said in the first page/post that it will take India a decade. Maybe you haven't noticed it? But, no doubt that almost anyone will think about that, judging how India moves or looks like. Of course, we are no way of insulting or making fun of them, but we are only telling what we think, in response to this topic here. I'd like to add in, that China won't also be idle during those periods.

So if ever India have improved a lot, I'm afraid that China is still going to be ahead of them. China and Russia, are already a long time best friends. But, maybe what you said there is also true that their friendship nowadays have even became more stronger or sweeter than ever. I'm not sure if I will be happy about that though.

There's just a little nuance. China's economy is in a very difficult situation, and the saddest thing for China is that the Chinese government is pursuing a course of worsening ties with the West, which may look like suicide for an export-oriented economy. And Russia is just a raw material appendage and a "guinea pig" for China to test the world's reaction to certain "irritants". so it is hard to call their alliance one that can greatly improve the situation in the Chinese economy. India, on the contrary, is strengthening ties with the developed Western world and adhering to international laws and agreements.

China is still in the driving position, if western countries boycott China then they have nowhere else to go that is why the Western countries are thriving to find multiple alternatives to manufacture their products and I think I already mentioned about Apple as an example for this. India, Russia and China have weird bond too when it comes to international trade and no government can influence them to change their government's decisions like buying oil from Russia.

The key point is that it's still the largest economy. But as you know, the withdrawal of Western markets for consumption, investment and technology is a very painful blow to China's economy. It simply has nothing to compensate for such losses. High-quality goods were bought by developed countries, for stable currencies (dollar, euro), and paid a good price. After the fall in demand in the West, who to sell it to ? Russia ? So why China needs useless rubles? And the population is not ready to pay a high price for quality goods. Russia buys back cheap consumer goods from China.  The fall of currency inflows also reduces the possibility of buying anything on the foreign market.  The departure of investors means taking huge sums from the budget. And the burden on the budget will grow, as the fall in production will cause a decrease in tax revenues and unemployment. And the game of confrontation with the West - for many years, if not decades, will make China a country not attractive for Western money....

[AmoreJaz]

It’s true opinion from your side,I had really appreciated it.Because the economy of the China is not the imaginable one to the India.Even though the population of both the country was almost equal and in future India may overtake China.But the government of China using their people as their power to lead their economy.India people also had huge potential,in many countries the top position in the government was owned by the Indian Origin.But many Indian inventions was not recognised by their own country government.As I had seen many documentary related to this issue.But still Indian government was not ready to change their policies and political influence in the scheme which only favoured the other country corporate.The politicians should changed for this significant change in Indian economy.

Brain drain is a major issue faced by India. As a result of affirmative action policies everywhere, those who belong to the unreserved classes migrate to western nations at the first available chance. Now even the reserved category people have started emigrating abroad. And all this is having a negative impact on sectors such as healthcare and education. But rather than phasing out such policies, the government has been increasing the quota year after year. At present, it is 75%, and very soon it will become 100%.

i don't think india can replace china. economic status alone would be hard to beat. india has a lot of things to resolve before they can even compete with china. that's my opinion though. i don't know the actual economic status of these 2. i am just basing on what i am seeing and reading over the news.

besides, india is ranked only as 14th most powerful country in the world, whereas, China is currently #2. so that's a long way to go for india. the factors considered are said to be leader, economic influence, political influence, strong international alliances and strong military

  THE 10 MOST POWERFUL COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD [2023]

[DrBeer]

I think the way to strengthen the economy, and some modernization of the internal structure (ineffective laws, economic "habits", corruption, etc.), will be comprehensively beneficial to the country. It will not only attract investors and expand India's interaction with the "global West", but will also make it possible to "transcend" the problems that are currently holding back or even preventing the active development of all sectors of the economy and, importantly, all regions of India. It will be a renewal of the foundation of the Indian economy, on which a more efficient economy can already be built.

[Haunebu]

I disagree op. China is imploding for sure thanks to their real estate crisis and other factors, but they are still way ahead of India in several key areas. Their productivity per labour is also higher in comparison.

India's GDP outpaced China's GDP recently and keeps growing slowly and steadily, but that by itself isn't enough to replace the current leader of Asia.

[DrBeer]

I disagree op. China is imploding for sure thanks to their real estate crisis and other factors, but they are still way ahead of India in several key areas. Their productivity per labour is also higher in comparison.

India's GDP outpaced China's GDP recently and keeps growing slowly and steadily, but that by itself isn't enough to replace the current leader of Asia.

I'll repeat the 2 main arguments:
1. China's economy has become what it has become only because of Western investment and technology.
2. India is now the most potentially attractive destination for ... Western investment and Western technology, including the migration of high-tech industries from China.

Or to put it more simply, the migration of Western investment and technology from China to India will severely weaken and make the Chinese economy uncompetitive, and proportionately strengthen and make the Indian economy more competitive

[Haunebu]

I'll repeat the 2 main arguments:
1. China's economy has become what it has become only because of Western investment and technology.
2. India is now the most potentially attractive destination for ... Western investment and Western technology, including the migration of high-tech industries from China.

Or to put it more simply, the migration of Western investment and technology from China to India will severely weaken and make the Chinese economy uncompetitive, and proportionately strengthen and make the Indian economy more competitive

Your points are 100% accurate and I do agree that India keeps moving forward while China keeps moving backward in several key areas, but they still have a lot of catching up to do if they wish to surpass China as the leader of Asia.

Name one place in India than can rival the likes of Shenzhen, Beijing etc currently. India would have already become the leader of Asia if their politicians would have stopped eating public money like crazy.

[WillyAp]

I'll repeat the 2 main arguments:
1. China's economy has become what it has become only because of Western investment and technology.
2. India is now the most potentially attractive destination for ... Western investment and Western technology, including the migration of high-tech industries from China.

The problem with western tech together with investment is that no one cares about creating value other than money.

[Twentyonepaylots]

I disagree op. China is imploding for sure thanks to their real estate crisis and other factors, but they are still way ahead of India in several key areas. Their productivity per labour is also higher in comparison.

Way too far for India to catch up. The population directly contributes to a country's economy, China and India is the first and second country on the list respectively, imagine you got potentially billions of manpower surely your economy will explode. China despite migrating tech companies, I think it is hard to surpass them in terms of economy.

India's GDP outpaced China's GDP recently and keeps growing slowly and steadily, but that by itself isn't enough to replace the current leader of Asia.

These countries are dynamic, I believe in slow and steady but China has been pumping their economy way far than we can imagine, they prepared for this era. India's potential economic growth is foreseaable, surpassing China in short term is possible as well but they need sustained efforts from every key areas.

[DrBeer]

I'll repeat the 2 main arguments:
1. China's economy has become what it has become only because of Western investment and technology.
2. India is now the most potentially attractive destination for ... Western investment and Western technology, including the migration of high-tech industries from China.

Or to put it more simply, the migration of Western investment and technology from China to India will severely weaken and make the Chinese economy uncompetitive, and proportionately strengthen and make the Indian economy more competitive

Your points are 100% accurate and I do agree that India keeps moving forward while China keeps moving backward in several key areas, but they still have a lot of catching up to do if they wish to surpass China as the leader of Asia.

Name one place in India than can rival the likes of Shenzhen, Beijing etc currently. India would have already become the leader of Asia if their politicians would have stopped eating public money like crazy.

I absolutely agree that now in India there are no such technological areas as those built in China. But they did not appear in China overnight, and only at the request of the Chinese people. These have been decades of investment, construction, training,... I think that the modern world will definitely diversify the risks that it now has with China and distribute production to other countries. In general, the world after 2022 has realized that it is better to have stable, albeit more expensive, suppliers/manufacturers than one cheap and inadequate/unpredictable one. And in this scheme, India is an excellent alternative to China. Considering that this is the interest of the West, it no longer depends on China whether they will invest in China or place orders or not.

[Hispo]

I disagree op. China is imploding for sure thanks to their real estate crisis and other factors, but they are still way ahead of India in several key areas. Their productivity per labour is also higher in comparison.

India's GDP outpaced China's GDP recently and keeps growing slowly and steadily, but that by itself isn't enough to replace the current leader of Asia.

I'll repeat the 2 main arguments:
1. China's economy has become what it has become only because of Western investment and technology.
2. India is now the most potentially attractive destination for ... Western investment and Western technology, including the migration of high-tech industries from China.

Or to put it more simply, the migration of Western investment and technology from China to India will severely weaken and make the Chinese economy uncompetitive, and proportionately strengthen and make the Indian economy more competitive

Though I agree with those points, there is still something which highly concerns me when I think of the developing of the market in India, that being the working conditions people of that country could face in order to carter the demand of manpower to manufacture products of high demand in the West, specially in the United States and the European Union.
I am not as unformed as I am supposed to be, because I have not dived myself into investigating about about labor in India, however I have read a little bit about how there is child slavery in that country as well as adults working in bad conditions and handling hazardous materials without proper protection.
In the worst case scenario, those investments and companies from abroad could prompt executives in India to further exploit the people of the country for the sake of maximizing profits, it would be nothing new, it has already happened in China but in India could be even worse.

In my opinion, foreign companies which move to India would be carefully monitored so they won't violate the safety and personal rights of local workers. It is already bad enough to have people in China working non-stop until they try to end their own life. It is disturbing there is still chil labor in those countries of Asia.