JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance)

[Mandoy]

In the last several years, I have been gravitating towards higher than 4% withdrawal rates so long as the valuation of the holdings are based on the 200-WMA and the authorized withdrawal amounts are pegged to dollar valuations...  For probably more than 4 years, I was already presuming that guys should be able to withdraw greater than 4%, even gravitating up to 6-10%, and when Bitmover put the back tester in the tool (about a year and a half ago - here is the thread on the topic of creating the tool), I was able to see that even maximizing the rates (which it ONLY goes up to 30%) would still allow for long term growth in the value of the holdings in terms of dollars - yet I also started to think that it was too risky to peg the amounts to BTC amounts and also to go so high with the withdrawal rate when it likely was not needed and would end up overly depleting the BTC holdings, since many of us likely recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is likely the best of places to hold value, so why would any of us want to be motivated to overlydeplete our bitcoin holdings (and draw down principle of our bitcoin holdings) unless we were to have some major health event or perhaps based on our age (and no desires to pass wealth down to heirs).

Of course, there likely remains to be value to spend from other income sources prior to spending from bitcoin, or alternatively to withdraw at fairly conservative rates in order to make sure not to overly deplete the bitcoin holdings, even though surely it seems to be the case that bitcoin tends to grow much faster and better than other assets and bitcoin can even tolerate higher withdraw rates and still to be sustainable, so surely, I don't mind some level of creative aggressive withdrawal in terms of still maintaining some frameworks to try to make sure that withdrawals are not being done in ways that overly deplete the bitcoin holdings, and it still seems to me that we ongoingly witness examples of guys having regrets because they end up selling way too much bitcoin too soon.

Ultimately, even if I am attempting to share some kinds of frameworks in which guys can consider their bitcoin withdrawals once they reach overaccumulation status, there still seem to be guys prematurely concluding that they reached overaccumulation status., yet maybe even in those cases if guys might start to practice some kind of sustainable BTC withdrawal, then he can figure out some kinds of boundaries to reassess from time to time, and surely I am way more convinced that valuating based on the 200-WMA (bottom price valuations - and conservative valuations) will likely lead to more stable levels of withdrawal, even though at the same time, it seems that my suggestion that a 10% withdrawal rate may well seem high to some guys and also may well end up being a high rate if guys are withdrawing 10% of their BTC rather than 10% of their 200-WMA dollar valuation and perhaps even leaving some kind of an extra cushion in there so that the withdrawals do not end up being excessive..

This is a well though-out point of view, very relatable too. I am very much interested in the idea of bench-marking against 200-WMA instead of relying on the illusions of spot price unrealistic expectations. Basically, I sometimes wonder how many of us are ready psychologically to discipline ourselves on how much bitcoin we withdraw, even if we set clear limits like 6% to 10% a year. I mean, sure, it seems so easy to say, I can only withdraw 10% of my 200-WMA valuation every year, but once the kicks in and the price goes up 2x or more above the MA line, most of us wont overcome the temptation, especially for investors who dont really know why they set those limits in the first place.

Also, the issue of over-accumlation (that sis people thinking they have accumulated enough bitcoin too soon) just like you said earlier on, it happens frequently. They have barely gone through one cycle, maybe two or three as the case maybe, and then they suddenly shift from accumulating to draining. It leaves no other thought, than the conclusion that their goals are too shorts or they misunderstood just how long and profiting the journey can be. And I agree, immediately an investor starts tapping into his stack (which is not advisable) without setting boundaries or realizing himself, everything might wipe out in a twinkle of an eye. From little fractions to nothing in their portfolio. Seen it too many times, trust me.

If anything, what interest me the most about your method is that it allows investors to accumulate, withdraw, at the right time, without getting too overwhelmed about the whole thing.

The approach by JJG provides a disciplined approach to Bitcoin withdrawals, namely, by applying the 200-WMA rather than losing one’s head and churning on the spot price spikes. Most investors claim they will only withdraw the 6-10 percent per year, however, when the price is doubling above the moving average, the urge to do so often prevails. Another frequent fallacy is the notions of over-accumulation that is common, people think they have accumulated enough upon the completion of the first cycle and become overly drained. A powerful stack may fade away in no time without any restrictions. The value of the framework presented by JJG is that it makes people think long-term and that withdrawals are anchored in real-life valuations, which allows investors to have some returns without working to ruin long-term growth potential of their holdings.

[As-Soon-As]

✂️✂️✂️

Even though everything that you are saying comes off as mostly correct, it also comes off as a bit theoretical if you cannot elaborate on what you mean a bit better, perhaps with the use of some examples or something like that.

Okay let's try looking at a hypothetical scenario of a successful entrepreneur who has over the years, built quite a sizable amount of Bitcoin, and as the years goes by, her Holdings have significantly grown and have reached a state of overaccumulation, and now worth around $10 million.

Now the entrepreneur's focus shifts from building more wealth and stacking up more funds to managing his existing portfolio and optimizing his financial position. He's determined to maintain his desired lifestyle, render financial support to his family and still ensure his financial stability.
So to achieve this goal, he decides to implement a time based strategic withdrawal approach by selling only 2% of his Bitcoin holdings quarterly, and by doing this, it allows the entrepreneur to generate a steady income stream while also simultaneously minimizing tax implications.

And even in times when the market starts experiencing a sudden decline and the price of Bitcoin drops by 30%, as many investors begins to panic and selling off their Bitcoins, the entrepreneur keeps his cool and sticks to selling only the predetermined amount of Bitcoin according to his plan earlier and thereby, ignoring the  short term market fluctuations, but rather interested in achieving his long-term financial goals.
And by prioritizing his financial stability, by managing tax implications and maintaining his planned allocation, he's able to optimize his financial position, while simultaneously minimizing and mitigating unnecessary risks. His strategic bitcoin withdrawal strategy enables him to achieve his specific objectives and also ensuring that he's more prepared for the future.

Your example is a good example of the concept, particularly the notion of moving away or rather switching accumulation to disciplined long term portfolio management. One can use a time withdrawal scheme such as 2 percent quarterly since this would help one to eliminate emotion when selling large amounts and ensure the interest stays on long-term sustainability rather than market clatter. The main thing is that one should be loyal to the strategy even when drawing down and this is where the majority of people make the mistake. Nevertheless, the success here is strongly dependent on individual factors- tax regulations, expenses requirements and general diversification. A plan in itself is wonderful, but it must be reviewed periodically to make certain that the rate of withdrawal and the allocation remains to the long term goals of the individual.

People see Bitcoin as a means of saving in the future so that Bitcoin plays the biggest role in becoming financially independent. Bitcoin currently offers more benefits than anything else, if you have noticed then you will definitely realize this fact that emergency fund plays the biggest role in maintaining proper discipline of the portfolio in the long term. It is most necessary to form this emergency fund to maintain Bitcoin holdings in the long term, so that Bitcoin investment is protected from any danger.

[MiF]

✂️✂️✂️

Even though everything that you are saying comes off as mostly correct, it also comes off as a bit theoretical if you cannot elaborate on what you mean a bit better, perhaps with the use of some examples or something like that.

Okay let's try looking at a hypothetical scenario of a successful entrepreneur who has over the years, built quite a sizable amount of Bitcoin, and as the years goes by, her Holdings have significantly grown and have reached a state of overaccumulation, and now worth around $10 million.

Now the entrepreneur's focus shifts from building more wealth and stacking up more funds to managing his existing portfolio and optimizing his financial position. He's determined to maintain his desired lifestyle, render financial support to his family and still ensure his financial stability.
So to achieve this goal, he decides to implement a time based strategic withdrawal approach by selling only 2% of his Bitcoin holdings quarterly, and by doing this, it allows the entrepreneur to generate a steady income stream while also simultaneously minimizing tax implications.

And even in times when the market starts experiencing a sudden decline and the price of Bitcoin drops by 30%, as many investors begins to panic and selling off their Bitcoins, the entrepreneur keeps his cool and sticks to selling only the predetermined amount of Bitcoin according to his plan earlier and thereby, ignoring the  short term market fluctuations, but rather interested in achieving his long-term financial goals.
And by prioritizing his financial stability, by managing tax implications and maintaining his planned allocation, he's able to optimize his financial position, while simultaneously minimizing and mitigating unnecessary risks. His strategic bitcoin withdrawal strategy enables him to achieve his specific objectives and also ensuring that he's more prepared for the future.

Your example is a good example of the concept, particularly the notion of moving away or rather switching accumulation to disciplined long term portfolio management. One can use a time withdrawal scheme such as 2 percent quarterly since this would help one to eliminate emotion when selling large amounts and ensure the interest stays on long-term sustainability rather than market clatter. The main thing is that one should be loyal to the strategy even when drawing down and this is where the majority of people make the mistake. Nevertheless, the success here is strongly dependent on individual factors- tax regulations, expenses requirements and general diversification. A plan in itself is wonderful, but it must be reviewed periodically to make certain that the rate of withdrawal and the allocation remains to the long term goals of the individual.

People see Bitcoin as a means of saving in the future so that Bitcoin plays the biggest role in becoming financially independent. Bitcoin currently offers more benefits than anything else, if you have noticed then you will definitely realize this fact that emergency fund plays the biggest role in maintaining proper discipline of the portfolio in the long term. It is most necessary to form this emergency fund to maintain Bitcoin holdings in the long term, so that Bitcoin investment is protected from any danger.

The case identifies a key shift in aggressive accumulation towards long-term portfolio management on a disciplined basis. When a Bitcoiner attains an overaccumulation, the incentive should be on sustaining and not making additional earnings. A withdrawal plan based on time contributes to eliminating emotional decisions and decreases the desire to respond to temporary fluctuations in the prices, particularly when the market declines. Nevertheless, there is no plan that should be left unchanged. Periodic reviews will be required to consider the fluctuation in personal expenditures, taxation laws, and financial objectives in general. Having an emergency fund not in Bitcoin is also important, because it will ensure that long-term positions can be sold when under pressure. Bitcoin has the potential to be used to achieve long-term financial independence provided that it is combined with discipline and planning.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

The case identifies a key shift in aggressive accumulation towards long-term portfolio management on a disciplined basis. When a Bitcoiner attains an overaccumulation, the incentive should be on sustaining and not making additional earnings.

I am not sure if you described the matter of getting to over accumulation status correctly MiF, even though I think that I understand what you are saying.

Of course, in this thread we are focusing more on the ideas about what we should do with our bitcoin once we reach a point of overaccumulation, and so then at that point (once we reach overaccumulation) we have more options, and we no longer need to be so focused on accumulation since we have gotten enough and maybe more than enough bitcoin.. so we can let off on the accumulation of bitcoin, yet at the same time, we are not precluded from accumulating more bitcoin or to have some systems set up so that we might be selling on the way up and buying on the way down within certain parameters that we determine to be sustainable. 

I frequently like to consider that we have a maintenance stage that exists between our accumulation stage and before we might start to sustainably withdraw from our BTC, so we might even employ price based sustainable withdrawal while we are in our maintenance stage - meaning that if the price goes up we might sell some and as the price goes down (if it does?) then we use the proceeds from any earlier sales to buy back.. We are not necessarily trying to accumulate more bitcoin but just to sort of maintain our holdings... Of course, if the price goes up a lot then we could have various sales on the way up that seem to add up to a lot of sales, yet if we have calculated them out, then our BTC stash (or value) is not really diminishing with the sales.. and so an  example would be selling 10% or less every time the BTC price were to double..  In some kind of a scenario like that, the value of our stash is going up way more than the amount that we are selling.

Maybe we are saying similar things, yet I am just phrasing it differently?

A withdrawal plan based on time contributes to eliminating emotional decisions and decreases the desire to respond to temporary fluctuations in the prices, particularly when the market declines.

I think that you are largely correct.  My own system that sets up the withdrawal based on the 200-WMA, then full withdrawals (perhaps up to 10% per year - or it could be lower based on personal choices) would be allowed as long at the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA...  so in that situation, there should not be any concerns about BTC price moves as long as the BTC price is at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA.  Accordingly, I had personally put in some withdrawal reductions that start to kick in once the BTC price gets lower than 25% higher than the 200-WMA, which would ultimately not allow withdrawals if the BTC price were to go 35% below the 200-WMA.

So of course with any of these formulas a guy would surely want to be in overaccumulation status rather than merely bordering upon overaccumumulation status... and he would want to make sure that his formulas are not allowing too high of a withdrawal rate, yet from my own view if the withdrawals are being made when the BTC price is at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, then both the full rate of 10% of the dollar value can be withdrawn per year and also there can be a 7% per year increase in the withdrawal rate, yet it if it is appearing that the  BTC is being depleted faster than the growth in the dollar value, then some downward adjustments might need to be made.

Nevertheless, there is no plan that should be left unchanged. Periodic reviews will be required to consider the fluctuation in personal expenditures, taxation laws, and financial objectives in general.

I agree with you about this, since we likely need to have a sufficient cushion in our withdrawal rate so that we can make sure that we are not missing out on anything and/or making any major mistakes in our calculations since ultimately we want our withdrawal amount to be lower than the rate that our BTC is growing in its dollar value based on the 200-WMA valuation.

Having an emergency fund not in Bitcoin is also important, because it will ensure that long-term positions can be sold when under pressure. Bitcoin has the potential to be used to achieve long-term financial independence provided that it is combined with discipline and planning.

Of course, it is possible that we could get to our sustainable withdrawal stage and we could potentially ONLY be in bitcoin and cash, and there is nothing wrong with that as long as the amounts are sufficiently proportioned to allow for whatever periods that we might prefer not to be selling our BTC up to the full authorized rate, and if we are finding that we are hesitating to withdraw at our full authorized amount, then there may well be something wrong with our formulas and calculations.  Furthermore, by the time we get to our the time that we believe that sustainably withrawing from our bitcoin might be a good practice, then we might have some comfort in having other places that we could alternatively withdraw from in the event that we are reluctant to sell any of our BTC.

I do have some formulas that allow for higher sales when the BTC price is multiples higher than the 200-WMA.. so it could be helpful to sell some BTC under those conditions in order to help our cashflow management practices, too.

[dan_dony]

✂️✂️✂️

Even though everything that you are saying comes off as mostly correct, it also comes off as a bit theoretical if you cannot elaborate on what you mean a bit better, perhaps with the use of some examples or something like that.

Okay let's try looking at a hypothetical scenario of a successful entrepreneur who has over the years, built quite a sizable amount of Bitcoin, and as the years goes by, her Holdings have significantly grown and have reached a state of overaccumulation, and now worth around $10 million.

Now the entrepreneur's focus shifts from building more wealth and stacking up more funds to managing his existing portfolio and optimizing his financial position. He's determined to maintain his desired lifestyle, render financial support to his family and still ensure his financial stability.
So to achieve this goal, he decides to implement a time based strategic withdrawal approach by selling only 2% of his Bitcoin holdings quarterly, and by doing this, it allows the entrepreneur to generate a steady income stream while also simultaneously minimizing tax implications.

And even in times when the market starts experiencing a sudden decline and the price of Bitcoin drops by 30%, as many investors begins to panic and selling off their Bitcoins, the entrepreneur keeps his cool and sticks to selling only the predetermined amount of Bitcoin according to his plan earlier and thereby, ignoring the  short term market fluctuations, but rather interested in achieving his long-term financial goals.
And by prioritizing his financial stability, by managing tax implications and maintaining his planned allocation, he's able to optimize his financial position, while simultaneously minimizing and mitigating unnecessary risks. His strategic bitcoin withdrawal strategy enables him to achieve his specific objectives and also ensuring that he's more prepared for the future.

Your example is a good example of the concept, particularly the notion of moving away or rather switching accumulation to disciplined long term portfolio management. One can use a time withdrawal scheme such as 2 percent quarterly since this would help one to eliminate emotion when selling large amounts and ensure the interest stays on long-term sustainability rather than market clatter. The main thing is that one should be loyal to the strategy even when drawing down and this is where the majority of people make the mistake. Nevertheless, the success here is strongly dependent on individual factors- tax regulations, expenses requirements and general diversification. A plan in itself is wonderful, but it must be reviewed periodically to make certain that the rate of withdrawal and the allocation remains to the long term goals of the individual.

People see Bitcoin as a means of saving in the future so that Bitcoin plays the biggest role in becoming financially independent. Bitcoin currently offers more benefits than anything else, if you have noticed then you will definitely realize this fact that emergency fund plays the biggest role in maintaining proper discipline of the portfolio in the long term. It is most necessary to form this emergency fund to maintain Bitcoin holdings in the long term, so that Bitcoin investment is protected from any danger.

The case identifies a key shift in aggressive accumulation towards long-term portfolio management on a disciplined basis. When a Bitcoiner attains an overaccumulation, the incentive should be on sustaining and not making additional earnings. A withdrawal plan based on time contributes to eliminating emotional decisions and decreases the desire to respond to temporary fluctuations in the prices, particularly when the market declines. Nevertheless, there is no plan that should be left unchanged. Periodic reviews will be required to consider the fluctuation in personal expenditures, taxation laws, and financial objectives in general. Having an emergency fund not in Bitcoin is also important, because it will ensure that long-term positions can be sold when under pressure. Bitcoin has the potential to be used to achieve long-term financial independence provided that it is combined with discipline and planning.

The move between accumulation and sustainability is a little-known stage in Bitcoin investment that is discussed in this discussion. The focus will automatically shift out of maximizing profits and on to preserving wealth and keeping the lifestyle constant once a person has attained a certain degree of overaccumulation. Selling a certain percentage every quarter makes a lot of sense since it is a time-based withdrawal plan, and it eliminates emotions when making investment decisions and responds to short-run market turbulence.

That being said, there is no plan that can be carried out indefinitely. It is necessary to review it regularly to make the changes based on the fluctuating costs, tax regulations, market performance, and individual objectives. Another aspect I highly agree with is the need to have an emergency fund other than Bitcoin. Liquidity in fiat or other low-risk assets insulates a BTC long-term position so that it is not sold at a loss. Bitcoin has the potential of making one self-sufficient in the long term, but only through discipline, planning, and effective risk management.

[rojan]

✂️✂️✂️

Even though everything that you are saying comes off as mostly correct, it also comes off as a bit theoretical if you cannot elaborate on what you mean a bit better, perhaps with the use of some examples or something like that.

Okay let's try looking at a hypothetical scenario of a successful entrepreneur who has over the years, built quite a sizable amount of Bitcoin, and as the years goes by, her Holdings have significantly grown and have reached a state of overaccumulation, and now worth around $10 million.

Now the entrepreneur's focus shifts from building more wealth and stacking up more funds to managing his existing portfolio and optimizing his financial position. He's determined to maintain his desired lifestyle, render financial support to his family and still ensure his financial stability.
So to achieve this goal, he decides to implement a time based strategic withdrawal approach by selling only 2% of his Bitcoin holdings quarterly, and by doing this, it allows the entrepreneur to generate a steady income stream while also simultaneously minimizing tax implications.

And even in times when the market starts experiencing a sudden decline and the price of Bitcoin drops by 30%, as many investors begins to panic and selling off their Bitcoins, the entrepreneur keeps his cool and sticks to selling only the predetermined amount of Bitcoin according to his plan earlier and thereby, ignoring the  short term market fluctuations, but rather interested in achieving his long-term financial goals.
And by prioritizing his financial stability, by managing tax implications and maintaining his planned allocation, he's able to optimize his financial position, while simultaneously minimizing and mitigating unnecessary risks. His strategic bitcoin withdrawal strategy enables him to achieve his specific objectives and also ensuring that he's more prepared for the future.

Your example is a good example of the concept, particularly the notion of moving away or rather switching accumulation to disciplined long term portfolio management. One can use a time withdrawal scheme such as 2 percent quarterly since this would help one to eliminate emotion when selling large amounts and ensure the interest stays on long-term sustainability rather than market clatter. The main thing is that one should be loyal to the strategy even when drawing down and this is where the majority of people make the mistake. Nevertheless, the success here is strongly dependent on individual factors- tax regulations, expenses requirements and general diversification. A plan in itself is wonderful, but it must be reviewed periodically to make certain that the rate of withdrawal and the allocation remains to the long term goals of the individual.

People see Bitcoin as a means of saving in the future so that Bitcoin plays the biggest role in becoming financially independent. Bitcoin currently offers more benefits than anything else, if you have noticed then you will definitely realize this fact that emergency fund plays the biggest role in maintaining proper discipline of the portfolio in the long term. It is most necessary to form this emergency fund to maintain Bitcoin holdings in the long term, so that Bitcoin investment is protected from any danger.

This discussion portrays clearly the significant change in aggressive accumulation to long term portfolio sustainability. When a Bitcoiner has accumulated more than enough, it will require a shift towards how to retain the wealth and live a consistent life than to earn more. The withdrawal plan which is time-based, like selling a fixed percentage on a quarterly basis would assist in eliminating emotions in decision-making and also it would avoid panic selling when the market is not performing well. It is important to continue with the plan since most errors occur when investors give up the strategy when the market turns volatile. Nevertheless, the plan should not be fixed but must be reviewed on a regular basis to represent developments in cost, tax regulations and financial objectives. It is also necessary to keep an emergency fund that is not in Bitcoin, which is used to hedge long-term positions and be disciplined with money.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

The move between accumulation and sustainability is a little-known stage in Bitcoin investment that is discussed in this discussion.

The reason that we likely have a lot of ambiguity in regards to how a guy might go through the stage of accumulation and into sustainable withdrawal is because there is likely a lot of personal variance by the time the guy gets to the stage where he could stop accumulating and perhaps how much time had already passed during his accumulation phase.  It may not even make much sense for a guy to accumulate in a lump sum kind of a way and then transition straight into being able to withdraw, since that is going to sound a lot like trading, rather than investing if he does not figure out some way to at least hold a whole cycle (4 years).

So when any guy is in the stage that is in between buying (accumulating) and selling (sustainably withdrawing), he might actually play around with both buying and selling based on BTC price movements or some other discretionary matters perhaps with goals that might be skewed in one direction or another.. so he could have goals that are skewed towards ongoing accumulation or he could have goals that are skewed towards skimming down his holdings.. and surely whichever direction that he might be skewed would have varying personal components that may well deal with several aspects of his personal factors including but not limited to the 9 that a already mentioned in my other investment ideas thread.

The focus will automatically shift out of maximizing profits and on to preserving wealth and keeping the lifestyle constant once a person has attained a certain degree of overaccumulation.

I have my doubts that investors ever need to go through stages that involve focusing on maximizing profits, since that seems more like a traders perspective or perhaps a business man's way of looking at how to deal with a business - even though surely I would agree that during the bitcoin accumulation stage there would likely be a certain amount of focus that relates to ongoingly building the bitcoin stack, yet perhaps at a certain point, it might start to seem that the stack is large enough and/or that any marginal additional accumulation is not really meaningfully changing the value of the holdings as much as its mere volatility of going up and down..

..so if a guy in his 30s might have been building his bitcoin holdings for 8 years and perhaps he started out at $100 per week and then little by little, he got up to adding around $400 per week by increasing from time to time during those 8-ish years of buying bitcoin and building up his bitcoin stash.  So maybe he started out with around an income of around $30k per year, and now he has an income of around $60k per year, so these days he might be wondering about his ongoing contribution, which is currently at $400 per week.  Maybe he had invested more than $120k into bitcoin over the years, and right now he has a little bit more than 8 BTC... .. so even with his goals of wanting to transition to being able to sustainably withdraw from his bitcoin, yet he is thinking that he needs to get to a point that he can sustainably withdraw around $90k per year in order that he might quit his job and/or take other actions towards living off his bitcoin... So yeah, maybe he is tentatively thinking that it is better that he keeps investing into bitcoin at the $400 per week rate for another year or two.. and perhaps by 2028 or 2029, he might be able to transition into some kind of a sustainable withdrawal that would be in the ballpark of $90k per year, and he is assuming that maybe his BTC stash might be around 8.5 BTC or perhaps slightly greater than that by that time.

So this particular hypothetical guy might not be in his transitional stage, even though he is getting the sense that he is getting close to being in his transitional stage... and sure, if the same guy had already achieved more than 12 BTC, he might consider himself to be in transitional stage where he is not necessarily going to accumulate more bitcoin.. though he might have ambiguous thoughts about the matter.   And surely if the guy had currently reached something like 14.2267 BTC or more then he could transition into a sustainable withdrawal stage for $80k per year, yet he might not be comfortable starting his sustainable withdrawal so he could just continue to wait it out, and he would not need to continue to add to his bitcoin, even though he could continue to add, and even if he does not have enough bitcoin to withdraw at $90k and he barely has enough to start withdrawing at $80k, he might choose to start to withdraw at a lower rate, such as somewhere around $50k and just let the value of his bitcoin holdings catch up so that he can start withdrawing at $90k per year.. perhaps in around 6 months.. . he can just monitor the valuation until it gets to the point that he increases his withdrawal rate to his desired amount.

Selling a certain percentage every quarter makes a lot of sense since it is a time-based withdrawal plan, and it eliminates emotions when making investment decisions and responds to short-run market turbulence.

For logistical reasons, quarterly withdrawals might make sense, even though there would be nothing wrong with monthly withdrawals, and surely within my own sustainable withdrawal tool I suggest that upon certain price levels, in which the BTC price is a certain percentage higher than the 200-WMA, then extra months could be withdrawn, and surely guys can play with the inclusion of price even if he might be considering himself to be carrying out time-based sustainable withdrawal.   For example, right now as I type, the BTC price is ONLY around 60% higher than the 200-WMA which within the tool recommendations only authorizes the withdrawal of 1 month at a time, yet if the BTC price were to go between 200% and 400% higher than the 200-WMA, then 11 months of advance withdrawal would be authorized and if it were to go between 400% and 650% higher than the 200-WMA then 23 additional months would be authorized, and surely there is a bit of randomness in the chosen numbers that can be tweaked to perhaps make them seem more realistic for a guy's view of the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA.  

That being said, there is no plan that can be carried out indefinitely. It is necessary to review it regularly to make the changes based on the fluctuating costs, tax regulations, market performance, and individual objectives.

You are likely correct that adjustments might need to be made from time to time, yet there are also likely ways that guys are withdrawing way under their authorized amounts, so they have no reason to fear that they are depleting their wealth faster than it is growing.. .. but yeah, there still might need to be reviews from time to time to make sure that the withdrawal plan is within a sustainable amount... and if it is sustainable, the idea is to be able to carry it out forever and ever and ever, even if the specifics might need to be tweaked from time to time based on preference and/or need.
 

Another aspect I highly agree with is the need to have an emergency fund other than Bitcoin. Liquidity in fiat or other low-risk assets insulates a BTC long-term position so that it is not sold at a loss. Bitcoin has the potential of making one self-sufficient in the long term, but only through discipline, planning, and effective risk management.

It makes sense that a guy would not want to hold all of his wealth in ONLY bitcoin and cash.. so there may need to be other ways that money is held and some of them may well be liquid and can be drawn upon from time to time or even regularly.

There could be ways that a guy who is drawing $80k per year, and with a 7% per year increase in the amount, and right now, he could have 14.2267 BTC that would allow him to withdraw at $80k per year, yet he had decided that he is going to be conservative and cautious and ONLY drawing half of the maximum amount, so he is drawing at 5% per year rather than 10% per year, which is he is ONLY drawing $40k per year from that fund, and maybe he also has $2 million in various kinds of index funds, and he has decided that he is drawing $40k per year from that fund too which is only at a 2% rather than the traditionally authorized 4% per year rate, so it seems to me that if the guy is living well within his means, then he has a lot of cushion for mistake and a lot of cushion to make adjustments in the event that some of the matters might not be going as well as he had anticipated in one direction or another, and he can perhaps make adjustments to the amounts each year to the extent that adjustments are needed, yet it seem to me that such a system could be considered perpetually sustainable at the $80k per year rate and even including giving himself a 7% per year raise merely based on the bitcoin amount (perhaps the fiat/stock market amount might have to be adjusted so that it is not occupying so much of the amount since there seems to be almost no fucking way that any raise could be given from the fiat amount.. and the fiat amount is likely locked into the withdraw rate forever, even though if the guy is starting out by ONLY withdrawing half of the authorized amount, he could still decide to give himself some kind of a raise each year and remove more and more of the cushion, even though the bitcoin side would likely make up for any of the faults in the fiat/stock market side).  It seems that if the guy is ONLY drawing upon each of the funds at half of their authorized amounts that should be sustainable for each of these two kinds of funds.  He can surely have other systems and funds in place too, which surely is part of the justification for not starting to withdraw from our funds too soon but to instead make sure that we build various cushions and back up funds in that we can really determine through actual application that they are sustainable in a perpetual kind of way, and we are not depleting our principle during the process in which we are of the belief that we are sustainably withdrawing from our funds.

By the way, don't get me wrong about having a side by side fiat (stock market) kind of a fund, and it surely might be more practical to have that side by side fund to be a much smaller portion, yet by the time guys get to over accumulation status, they can figure out if they have enough wealth accumulated in various areas or if they might need to shore up some kind of a supplemental way of drawing income if they think that there might be times that they would prefer not to draw fully or at all from their bitcoin holdings.

[edited out]

This discussion portrays clearly the significant change in aggressive accumulation to long term portfolio sustainability.

In this thread we are talking about what to do once reaching overaccumulation status rather than how to get to overaccumulation status, and surely a person may well reach overaccumulation status quicker if he employs aggressive accumualtion, yet it is not even a given that a person would have had needed to aggressively accumulate to reach overaccumulation status, since putting in a lot of time or even letting time pass can also help to put a guy in overaccumulation status based on his earlier accumulation that might not have had been aggressive in the way that it had been carried out.

When a Bitcoiner has accumulated more than enough, it will require a shift towards how to retain the wealth and live a consistent life than to earn more. The withdrawal plan which is time-based, like selling a fixed percentage on a quarterly basis

This thread relates to my ideas on how to deal with bitcoin overaccumulation, and I am not wedded to any specific withdrawal timeline (such as quarterly), even though I frequently talk about monthly expenses or monthly income since many times folks will have expenses that come due and/or rotate on a monthly basis, so then the sustainable withdrawal tool also has outputs and even discussions that translates into monthly withdrawals. .not quarterly withdrawals.

would assist in eliminating emotions in decision-making and also it would avoid panic selling when the market is not performing well.

Through this whole thread, I talk about two systems of sustainable withdrawal and one is price based and the other is time based, yet neither of the systems would necessarily involve trading and/or emotions about the price, especially if we might consider that we have reached overaccumulation and then we are setting up some withdrawal systems that would trigger either based on price or based on time, and so yeah, if a person has reached a status that he is comfortable to ONLY employ the time-based sustainable withdrawal then that would be less based on price movements, even though I still do incorporate suggestions that the BTC price needs to be at least 25% higher than the 200WMA in order to fully withdraw on a monthly basis... so within my way of framing matters, there could be times in which reductions in the withdrawal rate could happen based on BTC prices going below 25% above the 200-WMA.  

So if guys would be dependent upon receiving the full amount, he might have to have some other systems in place or perhaps reach such a status of overaccumulation that he would be ok with the reduced withdrawal rates that start to kick in once the BTC price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA.  There could be emotions involved in those kinds of dynamics, even if we might have had tried to set up our systems to reduce or even to eliminate emotions, BTC price movements could still sometimes end up triggering emotions.

It is important to continue with the plan since most errors occur when investors give up the strategy when the market turns volatile. Nevertheless, the plan should not be fixed but must be reviewed on a regular basis to represent developments in cost, tax regulations and financial objectives. It is also necessary to keep an emergency fund that is not in Bitcoin, which is used to hedge long-term positions and be disciplined with money.

Several of you guys are repeating general ideas about investment practices that might not even be attempting to apply the ideas to discussion points in the thread (including points that I have been making) which is starting to make me wonder if I am communicating with a bunch of bots?  I addressed these ideas in one or two of my earlier posts.

[JayJuanGee]

Do we have a bot infestation?  I deleted each of these two below post.. even though I cited them below... just for illustrative purposes.

This discussion portrays clearly the significant change in aggressive accumulation to long term portfolio sustainability. When a Bitcoiner has accumulated more than enough, it will require a shift towards how to retain the wealth and live a consistent life than to earn more. The withdrawal plan which is time-based, like selling a fixed percentage on a quarterly basis would assist in eliminating emotions in decision-making and also it would avoid panic selling when the market is not performing well. It is important to continue with the plan since most errors occur when investors give up the strategy when the market turns volatile. Nevertheless, the plan should not be fixed but must be reviewed on a regular basis to represent developments in cost, tax regulations and financial objectives. It is also necessary to keep an emergency fund that is not in Bitcoin, which is used to hedge long-term positions and be disciplined with money.

The most important thing to sustain a Bitcoin investment in the long term is risk, financial discipline and investor confidence. Only those investors who exist among them can sustain a Bitcoin investment for a long time. However, a Bitcoin investor can also play a simple role in sustaining his investment, which is the DCA method. If this DCA method is followed, the Bitcoin investor will definitely be able to sustain his investment for a long time through his continuous purchase. All those investors who have already invested in Bitcoin must be able to hold Bitcoin for a long time with complete success.

In this thread we are not talking about how to get to overaccumulation status, and we are using the term sustainable in the context of withdrawing once we get to overaccumulation status.

[edited out]

This discussion serves as the key step towards violent Bitcoin acquisition to the long term portfolio sustainability.

Are you just throwing out (repeatedly using) the word sustainable since it is used in the thread?

After acquiring a sizeable stake, an investor often shifts the focus of always trying to maximize returns but instead tries to preserve and sustain a steady life. A schedule of withdrawal systematic and timed, e.g., selling a specified fraction of an investment over a quarterly period, will eliminate emotion in decision-making and avoid panic selling when markets are down.

You are talking in generalities and repeating general ideas from earlier posts.

These plans are to be reviewed on a regular basis to take into consideration the fluctuation in costs, change in tax laws and change in personal financial goals.

These ideas already were stated in three earlier posts, including your own earlier post.

Having a non-Bitcoin emergency fund is another form of protection and hedging of long-term positions. By remaining with the DCA approach, investors can accumulate Bitcoin steadily without being influenced by emotions. Finally, the consistent risk management, financial stability, and trust are the key to long-term success in Bitcoin investment.

Repetition of general gibberish that was already stated, and not even about the topic of the thread.  Are you a real person?  I am having doubts.

[Rockstarguy]

There are two sides to this. As you said, when the price of Bitcoin falls during a market downturn, the value of the withdrawal will decrease a lot. If you see that the market is going to fall, then do not withdraw the investment, take some time and withdraw when the market returns to its previous condition. You have an emergency fund to deal with emergencies. So I think you can wait for a few days. The Bitcoin market is very volatile, you can never tell when what will happen. So this issue cannot be said.

Nobody knows when the market price drops, and there is never a notice for it. When dealing with the market, you should be prepared to know anything can happen. If you have invested enough and you think it is not yet time for you to withdraw, then go ahead with it; but if you want to continue investing, just make up your mind and stick to your decision.

Before going into Bitcoin investment, one needs to understand that the market is very volatile. If the drop in market price is always a problem for you, you won’t be able to invest in Bitcoin. Understanding the volatility of Bitcoin is a step toward being able to succeed in Bitcoin investment.

[As-Soon-As]

There are two sides to this. As you said, when the price of Bitcoin falls during a market downturn, the value of the withdrawal will decrease a lot. If you see that the market is going to fall, then do not withdraw the investment, take some time and withdraw when the market returns to its previous condition. You have an emergency fund to deal with emergencies. So I think you can wait for a few days. The Bitcoin market is very volatile, you can never tell when what will happen. So this issue cannot be said.

Nobody knows when the market price drops, and there is never a notice for it. When dealing with the market, you should be prepared to know anything can happen. If you have invested enough and you think it is not yet time for you to withdraw, then go ahead with it; but if you want to continue investing, just make up your mind and stick to your decision.

Before going into Bitcoin investment, one needs to understand that the market is very volatile. If the drop in market price is always a problem for you, you won’t be able to invest in Bitcoin. Understanding the volatility of Bitcoin is a step toward being able to succeed in Bitcoin investment.

Only those who are ready to take advantage of this volatility and invest in Bitcoin for a longer period will be able to reach the final place. You have invested and it will bring you success, but you should strengthen yourself more. Because many investors are deciding to sell their holdings due to the current market volatility, I think such a decision will lead to more destruction, but Bitcoin investment is well-established and this volatility should be used more, then your Bitcoin investment will be stronger and if you can survive for a long time, I think you will be able to achieve double success.

[Cossyblack]

Only those who are ready to take advantage of this volatility and invest in Bitcoin for a longer period will be able to reach the final place. You have invested and it will bring you success, but you should strengthen yourself more. Because many investors are deciding to sell their holdings due to the current market volatility, I think such a decision will lead to more destruction, but Bitcoin investment is well-established and this volatility should be used more, then your Bitcoin investment will be stronger and if you can survive for a long time, I think you will be able to achieve double success.

The current market dip isn't the period to sell but a good opportunity to keep buying bitcoin. Investors should ignore market downturns or price swings because it could discourage them from accumulating bitcoin.  Investing without ensuring for their basic needs are met can lead to panic selling when the price of bitcoin starts swinging downward. Investor could panic sell in this case, since he had invested funds he couldn't afford to lose, but if he had figured out discretionary income after covering for his basic essentials, he could literally Hodl for the long term since he had nothing to lose after all.

[Joy- maker]

The current market dip isn't the period to sell but a good opportunity to keep buying bitcoin. Investors should ignore market downturns or price swings because it could discourage them from accumulating bitcoin.

presently Bitcoin is seating at $87k which I believe is a good entery point to buy the dip and hold for long term, and anyone who is not taking advantage of this opportunity which Bitcoin has presented to us is really missing out. and for those who are yet to get started with bitcoin, now is a very good time to buy Bitcoin at a cheaper price and hold for long term.
And as for other investors like me who are already holding some portion of bitcoin, this is not the period to panic talk more of selling, this time is the time we should be accumulating bitcoin aggressively to add up to our existing portfolio and then hold for long term, and the aggressiveness should be done within our leftover money (discretionary income) nobody should over do it.

[RockBell]

There are two sides to this. As you said, when the price of Bitcoin falls during a market downturn, the value of the withdrawal will decrease a lot. If you see that the market is going to fall, then do not withdraw the investment, take some time and withdraw when the market returns to its previous condition. You have an emergency fund to deal with emergencies. So I think you can wait for a few days. The Bitcoin market is very volatile, you can never tell when what will happen. So this issue cannot be said.

Nobody knows when the market price drops, and there is never a notice for it. When dealing with the market, you should be prepared to know anything can happen. If you have invested enough and you think it is not yet time for you to withdraw, then go ahead with it; but if you want to continue investing, just make up your mind and stick to your decision.

Before going into Bitcoin investment, one needs to understand that the market is very volatile. If the drop in market price is always a problem for you, you won’t be able to invest in Bitcoin. Understanding the volatility of Bitcoin is a step toward being able to succeed in Bitcoin investment.

Only those who are ready to take advantage of this volatility and invest in Bitcoin for a longer period will be able to reach the final place. You have invested and it will bring you success, but you should strengthen yourself more. Because many investors are deciding to sell their holdings due to the current market volatility, I think such a decision will lead to more destruction, but Bitcoin investment is well-established and this volatility should be used more, then your Bitcoin investment will be stronger and if you can survive for a long time, I think you will be able to achieve double success.

One of the challenges that people feel is not a problem is lack of knowledge and one thing i have noticed with people is that the value money so much that when you comes to risking it they will be so sluggish in taking actions for example the clearly know how unstable the price of Bitcoin can be but the same time they want to make money from but they don't know that volatility of bitcoin is a big advantage because you can use every moment as an opportunity to Buy and the only thing everybody are suppose to be focusing on is to buy, when you buy then you are free, you don't have to bother your self, it should be that you buy than you can sell.

And even the way some people are panicking most times and we all know that the price of bitcoin will not go up for ever but you just have to be patient enough just for you to sell, but people do no longer have that patient all they care about is how to make quick money, and that does not work when it come to bitcoin investment and a lot of ideashave been shared just to make it easy for everyone.

[JayJuanGee]

There are two sides to this. As you said, when the price of Bitcoin falls during a market downturn, the value of the withdrawal will decrease a lot. If you see that the market is going to fall, then do not withdraw the investment, take some time and withdraw when the market returns to its previous condition. You have an emergency fund to deal with emergencies. So I think you can wait for a few days. The Bitcoin market is very volatile, you can never tell when what will happen. So this issue cannot be said.

Nobody knows when the market price drops, and there is never a notice for it. When dealing with the market, you should be prepared to know anything can happen. If you have invested enough and you think it is not yet time for you to withdraw, then go ahead with it; but if you want to continue investing, just make up your mind and stick to your decision.

Before going into Bitcoin investment, one needs to understand that the market is very volatile. If the drop in market price is always a problem for you, you won’t be able to invest in Bitcoin. Understanding the volatility of Bitcoin is a step toward being able to succeed in Bitcoin investment.

Only those who are ready to take advantage of this volatility and invest in Bitcoin for a longer period will be able to reach the final place. You have invested and it will bring you success, but you should strengthen yourself more. Because many investors are deciding to sell their holdings due to the current market volatility, I think such a decision will lead to more destruction, but Bitcoin investment is well-established and this volatility should be used more, then your Bitcoin investment will be stronger and if you can survive for a long time, I think you will be able to achieve double success.

One of the challenges that people feel is not a problem is lack of knowledge and one thing i have noticed with people is that the value money so much that when you comes to risking it they will be so sluggish in taking actions for example the clearly know how unstable the price of Bitcoin can be but the same time they want to make money from but they don't know that volatility of bitcoin is a big advantage because you can use every moment as an opportunity to Buy and the only thing everybody are suppose to be focusing on is to buy, when you buy then you are free, you don't have to bother your self, it should be that you buy than you can sell.

And even the way some people are panicking most times and we all know that the price of bitcoin will not go up for ever but you just have to be patient enough just for you to sell, but people do no longer have that patient all they care about is how to make quick money, and that does not work when it come to bitcoin investment and a lot of ideashave been shared just to make it easy for everyone.

Even though guys can do whatever they like (even dumb shit), I doubt that it is reasonable or practical to transition straight from being in accumulation phase and then all of a sudden be withdrawing.  There seems like practically there would end up existing some kind of a gap between the accumulation phase and then perhaps a bit of a maintenance stage before transitioning into some forms of sustainable withdrawal.

Surely price based sustainable withdrawal is a bit more flexible as compared with time-based sustainable withdrawal. 

So with time-based sustainable withdrawal a guy could set his threshold to begin withdrawals at something like a doubling of his costs - for example withdrawing 10% of the stash every time the price doubles.. .and the first sale might be as low as 2x.  Then a question might be whether that is enough?  So if the guy is measuring from his hold bitcoin holdings and he has 10 BTC, then perhaps it is enough, so then let's say that the guys costs were around $50k for his whole bitcoin stash of 10, so then he when the BTC price reached $100k, then he would have had been authorized to sell up to 1 BTC, and then maybe every time that the BTC price went up an additional 10%, then he would sell 1% of his stash (so around 0.09 BTC more when the price reached $110k, and then around 0.09 more when the price reached $120k.. etc etc.

So then when the BTC price corrected back down, he would perhaps consider whether he has a system that allows him to buy back some or all of his BTC upon certain price drops... so perhaps buying back 33% of what he sold every 10% the price drops...

If the guy were to be executing some kind of a time-based sustainable withdrawal, then there seems to be quite a bit of likelihood that he would have had been accumulating more than 4 years just to get his costs per BTC to likely be below the 200-WMA (even though I suppose the cost does not have to be below the 200-WMA to employ time-based sustainable withdrawal)... so then for example, if his goal were to be able to withdraw $80k per year and if his stack size is at least 14.1697 BTC, then he could withdraw $6,666 per month as long as the BTC price is greater than 25% above the 200-WMA, and right now we have BTC prices around 56%  higher than the 200-WMA. From my point of view it makes more sense to have had been accumulating for more than 4 years and to have costs per BTC below the 200-WMA (which is currently at $56.5k).. yet at the minimum if the guy at least has a stack size that is large enough to justify his withdrawal rate, then it may not matter so much if he is in profits (even though presumptively we would consider it better to be in profits prior to withdrawing from our BTC).   The amount can vary.

Surely no one really wants to be selling BTC on dips, yet if the various other criteria are met regarding stack size being sufficient then with time based sustainable withdrawal the n maybe the guy could withdraw on a monthly basis within the parameters... it likely feels better to have a certain amount of profits too prior to authorizing time-based withdrawals, even though the level of profits is likely discretionary and might relate to how large the stack size is and if there are other sources of income that can be used besides tapping into the bitcoin, especially when bitcoin is dipping yet the other cashflow sources might have their own issues, too.

At the same time, we cannot know the future, so we cannot really know if our current bitcoin dips are going to continue or not, which might inspire how to treat any kind of time-based withdrawal that might be self-authorized, which also gets back more towards considerations if the stack is large enough and if there are other sources of funds to draw upon rather than drawing on the bitcoin.  I tend to presume profits, even though the extent of profits does not need to be a central consideration as long as the stash size is large enough to sustain the withdrawal rate. 

Maybe I am being a bit snob-ish, since I tend to presume guys are in decently good profits, especially if they were to be considering the employment of time-based sustainable withdrawals.. It could be the case that their profits might be calculated as 5x to 10x or more, even if we are calculating from the 200-WMA.. so that would put average costs per BTC for such guys in the $5,600 to $11,200 territory, even though surely it would not be a deal-breaker to have lower levels of profits as long as the guy was withdrawing within time-based sustainable standards... which in this case with the $80k per year example would be a minimum stack size of 14.1697 and BTC prices at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA..

[mamesso]

~Snip~

The current market dip isn't the period to sell but a good opportunity to keep buying bitcoin. Investors should ignore market downturns or price swings because it could discourage them from accumulating bitcoin.  Investing without ensuring for their basic needs are met can lead to panic selling when the price of bitcoin starts swinging downward. Investor could panic sell in this case, since he had invested funds he couldn't afford to lose, but if he had figured out discretionary income after covering for his basic essentials, he could literally Hodl for the long term since he had nothing to lose after all.

A market downturn can be a great opportunity to continue accumulating Bitcoin, especially if you implement a clear strategy and take into account all potential risks. Ignoring price fluctuations and always focusing on accumulation is also the right strategy, especially if you fully believe in Bitcoin long-term growth. However, it is important to emphasize that Bitcoin investments must be made wisely and not exceed your financial capacity to bear the risk.

Ensuring that basic needs are met before investing is a very important point to consider so as not to invest money that is needed for daily needs. Holding for the long term and supporting DCA will allow you to invest without any burden, but you also have to ensure don't get caught up in FOMO or FUD which can lead you to make the wrong investment decisions.

[IjawMan]

Before going into Bitcoin investment, one needs to understand that the market is very volatile. If the drop in market price is always a problem for you, you won’t be able to invest in Bitcoin. Understanding the volatility of Bitcoin is a step toward being able to succeed in Bitcoin investment.

I think this thread is specially on discussion about right sustainable withdrawal ideas after reaching an over-accumulated bitcoin investment stage in our bitcoin stash and not on bitcoin investment start-up.  Surely bitcoin is a volatile asset and the price is definite to obey fluctuation movements and once an investor is consistently investing weekly or monthly using his discretionary income and with an emergency aside which should be kept in liquid for convenient use at any point in time, a cause for panic over price dips dew to volatility would be nothing to bother with.

[JayJuanGee]

Before going into Bitcoin investment, one needs to understand that the market is very volatile. If the drop in market price is always a problem for you, you won’t be able to invest in Bitcoin. Understanding the volatility of Bitcoin is a step toward being able to succeed in Bitcoin investment.

I think this thread is specially on discussion about right sustainable withdrawal ideas after reaching an over-accumulated bitcoin investment stage in our bitcoin stash and not on bitcoin investment start-up.  Surely bitcoin is a volatile asset and the price is definite to obey fluctuation movements and once an investor is consistently investing weekly or monthly using his discretionary income and with an emergency aside which should be kept in liquid for convenient use at any point in time, a cause for panic over price dips dew to volatility would be nothing to bother with.

Fair enough.  You pointed out what this thread is supposed to be about, but you made no specific comment in support of the substance of what the thread is about.^**
 
I have been spouting out regarding how I consider my withdrawal strategies to be superior since there is an attempt to peg the withdrawal authorization amounts to the 200-WMA rather than to the spot price, so then I consider that 10% annual withdrawal can be achieved based on those bottom pegged amounts which during regular BTC performance times (BTC tends to spend most of the time more than 25% higher than the 200-WMA), my own sustainable withdrawal numbers may well end up playing out very similar to traditional asset sustainable withdrawal numbers that seem to peg to withdrawing 4% of the asset each year and then so if the BTC price is tending to stay more than 25% higher than the 200-WMA and even frequently much higher than that (such as around 100% higher for much of 2025 - especially after the November 2024 Trump pump).

One of my main reasons to continue to want to proclaim that my system is better (even though admittedly it is a bit more complicated than traditional 4% systems) is because there are attempts to alert and potentially modify our withdrawal amounts based on how far the BTC price is from the 200-WMA in either direction..so if we are less than 25% below the 200-WMA, I suggest a lessening of the withdrawal amounts and maybe even some guys will consider that buying is good, in those lower ranges, especially if the BTC price is touching upon the 200-WMA or below the 200-WMA.

I have several times repeated that once a guy gets to overaccumulation status^** and especially if he had started to implement some form of time-based (rather than price-based) sustainable withdrawal, then buying back become optional rather than anything that he needs to do in order to keep himself in overaccumulation status. Surely, all overaccumulation statuses are not equal since if guys are barely at their threshold overaccumulation status then they may well become more concerned about making sure that they do not fall out of such overaccumulation status as compared with guys who have larger cushions of extra bitcoin.  

**Surely within this thread we can have discussions what overaccumulation status is or how it might vary from person to person, and not only has my own conception of overaccumulation status changed through the years, I have come to  believe that it different for a potential trigger of price-based sustainable withdraw as compared with time-based sustainable withdrawal - and since my own sustainable withdrawal systems are not exactly locked down, they can be used in different ways and even upon different assessements of what is overaccumulation status.  A guy could lock away a certain quantity of BTC, and then just say that quantity of BTC is going to be locked into either a price-based sustainable withdrawal system or it could be locked into a time-based sustainable withdrawal system.  So  for example a guy has 25 BTC.  He could put 15 BTC into time-based sustainable withdraw with an $0k per year or a $6,666 per month withdrawal schedule.  The remaining 10 BTC could be placed into a price based sustainable withdrawal system that maybe has a schedule of selling somewhere around 1% of the holdings every 15% the BTC price goes up starting with the first sale at $100k.  There could be some buy back systems in place too, without getting too much into trading since I am mostly attempting to describe sustainable withdrawal where there has already been an assessment of enough or more than enough BTC in the holdings.... even though sure, it is understandable that guys might feel better to have some systems in place for buying dips.. which I don't really see any problem with buying dips in a context of just taking advantage of dips when the sells had not been set up with any purpose of needing/wanting to buy more or expecting that any dips were going to happen after the sales had already happened.  There could sometimes develop a sense of spinning wheels if a person is buying and selling at the same time without some reasonable parameters, since buying selling at the same time, seems to just generate paying fees and not really getting anywhere.

Some guys presume that guys have to continue to accumulate bitcoin, even after reaching overaccumulation status, which truly is not necessarily the case, yet there could be some truth in such assumptions in the cases of guys who are barely at their threshold levels of having had reached overaccumulation status and/or if they are also at the same time, aggressively withdrawing from their bitcoin at or near the maximum levels that are authorized even within systems that I would consider should be sustainable.  Accordingly the more that guys are at their threshold levels then the more likely they have to be careful in their levels of withdrawal and likely spend more time monitoring that their actions of withdrawing too much do not contribute to their falling out of overaccumulation status.  

Another thing is that if a guy is measuring the value of his bitcoin holdings based on the 200-WMA, then historically the 200-WMA has so far always tended to go up more than 18% annualized, so even if a guy is perceiving that he is close to dropping below his designated overaccumulation threshold level, he likely could just discontinue withdrawing for a short period of time (such as a month or two) and the 200-WMAs continued movement upward would likely end up putting a greater cushion in his overaccumulation level and providing him with more cushion - based on his having had discontinued withdrawing from his BTC for a month or two.  Of course, nothing in the future is guaranteed even if historically the 200-WMA has always gone up.. so sometimes there may well need to be some monitoring of the status of bitcoin's 200-WMA, especially if we might happen to transition into times in which the BTC price is spending extensive periods below the 200-WMA (even worse - or for longer periods and more deeply - than what had ended up happening between June 2022 and October 2023).

[MusaMohamed]

Another thing is that if a guy is measuring the value of his bitcoin holdings based on the 200-WMA, then historically the 200-WMA has so far always tended to go up more than 18% annualized, so even if a guy is perceiving that he is close to dropping below his designated overaccumulation threshold level, he likely could just discontinue withdrawing for a short period of time (such as a month or two) and the 200-WMAs continued movement upward would likely end up putting a greater cushion in his overaccumulation level and providing him with more cushion - based on his having had discontinued withdrawing from his BTC for a month or two.  Of course, nothing in the future is guaranteed even if historically the 200-WMA has always gone up.. so sometimes there may well need to be some monitoring of the status of bitcoin's 200-WMA, especially if we might happen to transition into times in which the BTC price is spending extensive periods below the 200-WMA (even worse - or for longer periods and more deeply - than what had ended up happening between June 2022 and October 2023).

People can use different time frames for their technical analysis or even fundamental analysis but if they use longer time frames, they will have wider view that is less affected by noise, news, fud and short term price volatility. Wider view will help people having more neutral psychology about what's happened recently in the market, even it is either negative or positive movements from price to regulatory policies.

200-WMA moves very slowly and a 200-WMA chart will convince people about general upward trend of Bitcoin price exploration and growth. They can even don't use 200-WMA by changing their price chart to year candles like this following chart and turn themselves to be very bullish.

https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

[JayJuanGee]

Another thing is that if a guy is measuring the value of his bitcoin holdings based on the 200-WMA, then historically the 200-WMA has so far always tended to go up more than 18% annualized, so even if a guy is perceiving that he is close to dropping below his designated overaccumulation threshold level, he likely could just discontinue withdrawing for a short period of time (such as a month or two) and the 200-WMAs continued movement upward would likely end up putting a greater cushion in his overaccumulation level and providing him with more cushion - based on his having had discontinued withdrawing from his BTC for a month or two.  Of course, nothing in the future is guaranteed even if historically the 200-WMA has always gone up.. so sometimes there may well need to be some monitoring of the status of bitcoin's 200-WMA, especially if we might happen to transition into times in which the BTC price is spending extensive periods below the 200-WMA (even worse - or for longer periods and more deeply - than what had ended up happening between June 2022 and October 2023).

People can use different time frames for their technical analysis or even fundamental analysis but if they use longer time frames, they will have wider view that is less affected by noise, news, fud and short term price volatility. Wider view will help people having more neutral psychology about what's happened recently in the market, even it is either negative or positive movements from price to regulatory policies.

200-WMA moves very slowly and a 200-WMA chart will convince people about general upward trend of Bitcoin price exploration and growth. They can even don't use 200-WMA by changing their price chart to year candles like this following chart and turn themselves to be very bullish.
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

Within the context of the topic of this thread, I am not really suggesting to use the 200-WMA as a means to determine whether or not to invest into bitcoin since within the context of this thread there is a presumption that guys are further on their bitcoin journey and they are not needing to be convinced whether or not to invest in bitcoin and they have already both chosen to invest in bitcoin and they have also been accumulating bitcoin for some time and perhaps either reached overaccumulation status or maybe they are working towards reaching overaccumulation status.  Accordingly, I am tending to use the 200-WMA as a means to valuate the BTC holdings that have already been accumulated and to attempt to potentially consider the pacing of withdrawals (or living off of the BTC already accumulated) in a sustainable way... perhaps perpetually and through the end of their lives absent various individual variables.

So within this thread there is already a presumption that we have gotten to an overaccumulation status in our bitcoin holdings or perhaps we are approaching such status so that sustainable withdrawal becomes relevant to our circumstances.. and I am suggesting that the 200-WMA is good way to valuate where we are at with our bitcoin holdings and perhaps how to consider managing our withdrawal based on where the BTC spot price is, relative to the 200-WMA.

Time-based sustainable withdrawal tends to be more reliant on using the 200-WMA rather than price based sustainable withdrawal, and I tend to suggest that it might not be too easy to get to time-based sustainable withdrawal in less than 4 years even though getting to price based sustainable withdrawal might be accomplished more quickly - yet at the same time, in the last several years I have been using the 200-WMA as a kind of bottom price indicator, even though surely between June 2022 and October 2023, the BTC price spent quite a bit of time below the 200-WMA and even had gotten down to 35% below the 200-WMA in November 2022 when BTC spot price had reached as low as $15,479. Surely, there can be aberrations, even though at the same time, we likely know that there are no guarantees, even though we might still attempt to measure times in which BTC price dynamics seem to be devolving into extreme territories, so in that regard, BTC spot prices tend to fluctuate all over the place, yet the 200-WMA  tends to move quite slowly (relatively speaking) since it is the average trade-weighted price over 200 weeks, which is more or less 4 years.

Of course, guys can be at any place in their bitcoin accumulation journey when they are reading this thread, yet I am mostly presuming that guys have already mostly gotten through their bitcoin accumulation journey and are more inclined to be in (or close  to) the sustainable withdrawal phase of their bitcoin journey... so there is already a presumption in this thread that bitcoin is considered a long term investment and so we are not talking about whether we need to be convinced about the fundamentals of bitcoin (and we surely are not fucking around with trading which seems to be the kinds of thinking that traders get into, in their juxtaposing ideas of technical analysis versus fundamental analysis... which is also not what is being contemplated in this thread, even though I attempt to incorporate some ways to consider potentially taking advantage of up and down BTC price movements, since BTC volatility is likely one of bitcoin's inevitabilities). 

So sure in some context there is a quite a bit of a presumption that this thread is more applicable to guys who had already spent several years building up their bitcoin holdings, even though there could be ways that guys get to overaccumulation status more quickly than others and sure, at any time, guys could lose confidence in bitcoin as a long term or lifetime investment, and that topic is also seemly mostly outside of the scope of this thread, even though it may well be considered to be within the scope of my investment ideas thread.

And, how about you MusaMohamed?  You are still accumulating bitcoin?  Are you playing around with trading it (and that is why you are thinking in terms of the potential applicability of technical analysis and fundamental analysis?)?  Or perhaps you are not completely convinced in regards to bitcoin as a long term investment in which we might consider holding such asset through all of our lives rather than fucking around trying to trade it (or thinking that getting in and out of it is a good way to try to manage our holding of it?)?

[MusaMohamed]

And, how about you MusaMohamed?  You are still accumulating bitcoin?  Are you playing around with trading it (and that is why you are thinking in terms of the potential applicability of technical analysis and fundamental analysis?)?  Or perhaps you are not completely convinced in regards to bitcoin as a long term investment in which we might consider holding such asset through all of our lives rather than fucking around trying to trade it (or thinking that getting in and out of it is a good way to try to manage our holding of it?)?

I don't do that, as with me, after I understood about Bitcoin fundamentals, I no longer have need of doing technical analysis but for people who want to do that but with wide view, 200WMA can be helpful for them, I meant so in that post.

With a good investment asset like Bitcoin, let's act simply by focusing on accumulation bitcoins with time. The more time you can do accumulation, the more satoshis you stack. Then by holding your satoshis a longer time, your wealth will be improved and your life quality would be better too.

Stick with technical analysis and trading only causes unnecessary tasks, more pressure and more possibly losses, I understood it.