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November 25, 2023, 06:16:03 PM |
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So we're talking about mining revenues only, right? My bet would be on the moment we manage to have fees constantly push for over 90% of the reward for prolonged periods, but there is a catch in this, the fees are not really that tied to the BTC price.
For example right now you said 6.25 block reward and fees over 1 BTC but this won't work if BTC goes to 200k, because everyone will think in $ terms when sending that tx, next block predictions says 0.81 BTC and min fee of 55sat/b, it's all nice if you think in BTC but if the price goes from $37 to $200k, that next block fee goes from $2.75 to $15. And just because Bitcoin is worth more that won't mean people are going to automatically and willingly pay more for fees, nobody would like paying twice for gas just because they have a better paying job. So I would look at it more in $ terms than in BTC, but still in the 9:1 range.
If we talk about impact to price of the havening, it will be question of demand and current price, an issuance worth less than 4-5 million a day would probably start being meaningless, right no we're looking at a decrease from 36mils a day to 18mil, a 6.5 billion a year necessary investment drop to keep coin printing in check.
So two 1/2 for the price shocks and 4 for mining would be my guess.
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