At what point does the 1/2 ing become meaningless 2032?

[philipma1957]

okay

here we go.

2012        50.00     coin reward drops to 25,0000      fees were under 0.10 btc for most blocks
2016        25.00     coin reward drops to 12.5000      fees were often over 0.10 btc for most blocks
2020.       12.50     coin reward drops to 6.25000      fees were often over 0.50 btc for many blocks


2024         6.25      coin reward drops to 3.12500     fees will likely top 1 coin for many blocks.
2028         3.125    coin reward drops to 1.56250      fees will likely top 1 coin for many blocks
2032         1.5625  coin reward drops to 0.78125      fees will likely top 1 coin for many blocks

So I separated history from future.

And my fee estimates are simple best guess from my tired old memories.
I would love someone to find the real fee averages rather than my estimates.

but the ratios of rewards to fees are becoming more and more equal

2032 or 2036 will will no longer have the supply shock of the 1/2 ing that we have been getting.

I would be pretty old in 2036 79 years I likely won't give a fuck about  BTC and will no longer be posting but a lot of people on the site are 15-45 years old and will be active in btc. So I am posing a prediction guessing thread of what happens when that supply shock ends. As it clearly will end well before 2056 when I would be 99.

It looks to me like the shock of the 1/2 ing will exist in 2024 2028 and 2032 and not in 2036.

Your thoughts are welcome.

[1715518582]

1715518582

[stompix]

So we're talking about mining revenues only, right?
My bet would be on the moment we manage to have fees constantly push for over 90% of the reward for prolonged periods, but there is a catch in this, the fees are not really that tied to the BTC price.

For example right now you said 6.25 block reward and fees over 1 BTC but this won't work if BTC goes to 200k, because everyone will think in $ terms when sending that tx, next block predictions says 0.81 BTC and min fee of 55sat/b, it's all nice if you think in BTC but if the price goes from $37 to $200k, that next block fee goes from $2.75 to $15.
And just because Bitcoin is worth more that won't mean people are going to automatically and willingly pay more for fees, nobody would like paying twice for gas just because they have a better paying job.
So I would look at it more in $ terms than in BTC, but still in the 9:1 range.

If we talk about impact to price of the havening, it will be question of demand and current price, an issuance worth less than 4-5 million a day would probably start being meaningless, right no we're looking at a decrease from 36mils a day to 18mil,  a 6.5 billion a year necessary investment drop to keep coin printing in check.

So two 1/2 for the price shocks and 4 for mining would be my guess.

[franky1]

4,000,000bytes and you hope for 100,000,000sats in a few months
so you want a situation of 25sats per byte

min tx length is 226bytes so 5,650sat minimum = $2.14 at todays prices

have you ever thought that every halving has some bad economist scream about importance of fee's for mining due to halving.. without understanding the spot market makes the reward fiat worthy of compensating miners, without accounting for the fee..

by presuming everyone need to pay an ever increasing fee will have the opposite effect, it will cause less people to want to transact
the solutions is not to make users pay more individually, but instead to expand the blockspace to allow more byte utility to allow more transactions so the TOTALS can THEN increase but based on totals, not individual cost increase

[philipma1957]

@frank1y I never said fees will average 1btc after April 2024 1/2 ing

I did say many blocks will be over 1btc.

I also asked is someone has a link for the exact fee average.


This is not about fees for miners. this is not about rewards for miners.

this is about the decreasing reward to fee ratio that happens each 1/2ing

Down the road the 1/2 ing effect will end as it will no longer be reducing supply like it does now.