Will we see repeat of 2017 or new trend?

[Marvell1]

Bitcoin have difference condition from 2017 with situation right not, have many bigger companies around the world adopted bitcoin as legal payment currency and right now have El Savador allowed bitcoin as payment tender. I think last several season Bitcoin not huge progress and still use as commodity assets not adopting for payment currency and right now Bitcoin have good movement not only with price but advantage of bitcoin adopted and use for daily day. Pattern of bitcoin price have any similar with 2017 but I don't sure how bitcoin success becoming top large digital currency and adopted by many companies as bigger revolution of bitcoin.

But one one side with bitcoin against still the same where in 2017 many bad news publishing by community dislike with bitcoin and still the same until right now they keep trying make FUD with bitcoin.

I don't want to spread Fuds or pessimism but so far, I haven't seen many countries accepting bitcoin as currency except El Salvador. And El Salvador has not yet fully made bitcoin its sole currency, they still use USD as their main currency. Furthermore, I am not very optimistic about bitcoin becoming a currency in the future. Even the approval of ETFs that we expect is turning bitcoin into a gold-like asset rather than a currency. It's true that there are still some companies and stores that are trying to accept it as a payment method, but on a national level, that hasn't happened yet.

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[Nrcewker]

We have always witnessed that Bitcoins follow the history. We have seen that in order to achieve new ATH price Bitcoins have always followed a 4 year cycle. Last time it went for it’s ATH price in 2020, so yes 2024 might be big and this time also it seems like Bitcoins following the history. I am very much sure that Bitcoins will cross 70k usd in 2024. So without thinking so much, we should concentrate more on accumulating the coins.

[Davian144]

We don't have any information about correction that when it will happens and how much price will decrease but there will surely be stage where we will must see dip before halving but if we are waiting for it then we will miss the better moment of buying. Everyone is saying that price will becoming lower due to the reason of correction so they will buy bitcoin that time but who knows that whether it will be happen or not so don't waste time through waiting for accurate timings but buy bitcoin until accurate time to get advantage out of it.

Corrections and price increases are two things that are very certain to happen in the market as I see now where Bitcoin is starting to experience a slight correction, even though previously no one predicted a small correction today. But this happened very clearly even though it was a very short period of time and any correction would certainly be better to take advantage of, especially for those who want to buy more. Although implementing defensive buying that is tailored to each person's abilities is quite a good thing for everyone to do.

Bitcoin's price is at 41k$ from two or three days and according to estimation in few days it will grow more to cross the value of 45k$. If someone did not purchase bitcoin and are in hope that price will lower more so they will feel apologetic about their ignorance.

This is like a metaphor for people who miss their train because they are waiting for a cheaper train. In fact, if everyone wanted to buy Bitcoin with minimal capital through several stages, of course there would be no feeling of regret or disappointment because they didn't buy beforehand. Because everyone doesn't know when Bitcoin will experience a decline and when Bitcoin will experience an increase in price, so everyone will only take advantage of the moment from time to time when they want to buy Bitcoin, although there are also those who buy it just to save it as an investment.

[nimogsm]

I am with you on this. The scenario today is different from 2017 in a lot of aspects.
The adoption alone has been increased, more users and stakeholders are already in this market.
And of course, the population who are getting familiar in this market as well is steadily increasing.
It means, the possible demand is in the positive direction. Consider that the supply of btc is fixed.
Then, theoretically, the price will increase. So that's a good indication that we will see an increase in btc price.

Yes, you are right, the number of people interested in crypto is really growing every day. There is essentially not much time left before Bitcoin halving and I would like new investors to give preference to it and not just new altcoins. Bitcoin will become more scarce and this will definitely affect the price, which will holders will win without a doubt.

[beerlover]

This is like a metaphor for people who miss their train because they are waiting for a cheaper train. In fact, if everyone wanted to buy Bitcoin with minimal capital through several stages, of course there would be no feeling of regret or disappointment because they didn't buy beforehand. Because everyone doesn't know when Bitcoin will experience a decline and when Bitcoin will experience an increase in price, so everyone will only take advantage of the moment from time to time when they want to buy Bitcoin, although there are also those who buy it just to save it as an investment.

That's why monthly investments are the best way to go with bitcoin and has always been like that. I never cared about what the price of bitcoin was at the moment I buy it, I have always bought bitcoin as soon as I got my salary first of every month, some months I do not have enough money to do that, but whenever I do, the moment I get my salary, it goes to bitcoin.

Not all of it of course, just a small portion for investment purposes. I did this back when it was under 3k, I did this above 60k, I have done it anything in between as well. This isn't exactly DCA, because DCA means buying cheaper than your initial investment, I just buy, buy whatever the price is, and I aim to do this for 20 years and then retire with it.

[philipma1957]

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?

we are not in a 2017 bull run pattern.


we are in a 2015 pre ½ ing runup.

see my thread on this.

[ShowOff]

We have always witnessed that Bitcoins follow the history. We have seen that in order to achieve new ATH price Bitcoins have always followed a 4 year cycle. Last time it went for it’s ATH price in 2020, so yes 2024 might be big and this time also it seems like Bitcoins following the history. I am very much sure that Bitcoins will cross 70k usd in 2024. So without thinking so much, we should concentrate more on accumulating the coins.

Your optimism seems good about bitcoin, but you should look at the data more often before saying so. Bitcoin's previous ATH occurred on November 10, 2021 or more than 2 years before now, when bitcoin hit $69k as ATH. The 4-year cycle known as the halving is a good basis for expecting more demand. The average large investor takes advantage of these cycles which in turn makes the price of bitcoin increase over time, but bitcoin is never obliged to repeat history.

Anyone should remain realistic about something that hasn't happened yet, I mean don't get your hopes up. The price of bitcoin is very difficult to predict even though some people may be able to make an analysis that is close to accurate, but in the long run we have seen many wild predictions that were ultimately wrong. Always consider the risks and don't hope too much for something big to come true, even if it happens then consider it as a bonus for your patience.

[milewilda]

We have always witnessed that Bitcoins follow the history. We have seen that in order to achieve new ATH price Bitcoins have always followed a 4 year cycle. Last time it went for it’s ATH price in 2020, so yes 2024 might be big and this time also it seems like Bitcoins following the history. I am very much sure that Bitcoins will cross 70k usd in 2024. So without thinking so much, we should concentrate more on accumulating the coins.

Your optimism seems good about bitcoin, but you should look at the data more often before saying so. Bitcoin's previous ATH occurred on November 10, 2021 or more than 2 years before now, when bitcoin hit $69k as ATH. The 4-year cycle known as the halving is a good basis for expecting more demand. The average large investor takes advantage of these cycles which in turn makes the price of bitcoin increase over time, but bitcoin is never obliged to repeat history.

Anyone should remain realistic about something that hasn't happened yet, I mean don't get your hopes up. The price of bitcoin is very difficult to predict even though some people may be able to make an analysis that is close to accurate, but in the long run we have seen many wild predictions that were ultimately wrong. Always consider the risks and don't hope too much for something big to come true, even if it happens then consider it as a bonus for your patience.

Not really that bad on being optimistic but we should really be having that realistic approach when it comes to things on which it isnt bad to have that positivity but since we are dealing something into this market
then we should really that make ourselves that get prepared for whatever things that we are really that encountering because if we dont then pretty sure it would really be creating that kind of too much expectation or anticipating about things on which arent supposed to be that right or something that way it is really too much and on the time that things didnt happen or really go the other way round then it would really be bringing
up that kind of frustration on which it would really be giving out that such impact.

For repeating out into the events that happened before then there's no way that could really be able to tell if it would really be that happening again or not. Just like been said by
others that there might be some patterns on which it might indicate those kind of similarities but as we do all know that there would really be no guarantees that it would
really be giving out that kind of assurance for things to happen.

[bettercrypto]

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?

What happened in 2017 will not happen again in 2024 because they are different times. What will happen in 2024 halving and bull run, there is a high chance that it can be better or it can be even worse. So that seems vague, in my opinion.

All the patterns seen by expert traders in the field of cryptocurrency are just speculations; they only become true when the majority believes them and they happen at the right time. And that's how it always happens, right?

[kentrolla]

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?

What happened in 2017 will not happen again in 2024 because they are different times. What will happen in 2024 halving and bull run, there is a high chance that it can be better or it can be even worse. So that seems vague, in my opinion.

All the patterns seen by expert traders in the field of cryptocurrency are just speculations; they only become true when the majority believes them and they happen at the right time. And that's how it always happens, right?

Yes as far as the market conditions and the events lined up it looks like this December will be bit different than what we witnessed during December 2017 and actually it's a good sign that we have seen so much of price movement even before the bull run which has triggered more investments which will act as shield even if we have couple of minor price corrections before the bull run. But as you mentioned towards the end of your response that we cannot merely go by expert opinions as they are just speculations and some low cap coins does swindles based on their predictions because of the followers cashing in, now majority of us are awaiting for two events one is Spot ETF & other one being Halving.

[Mahanton]

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?

What happened in 2017 will not happen again in 2024 because they are different times. What will happen in 2024 halving and bull run, there is a high chance that it can be better or it can be even worse. So that seems vague, in my opinion.

All the patterns seen by expert traders in the field of cryptocurrency are just speculations; they only become true when the majority believes them and they happen at the right time. And that's how it always happens, right?

Yes as far as the market conditions and the events lined up it looks like this December will be bit different than what we witnessed during December 2017 and actually it's a good sign that we have seen so much of price movement even before the bull run which has triggered more investments which will act as shield even if we have couple of minor price corrections before the bull run. But as you mentioned towards the end of your response that we cannot merely go by expert opinions as they are just speculations and some low cap coins does swindles based on their predictions because of the followers cashing in, now majority of us are awaiting for two events one is Spot ETF & other one being Halving.

We can make patterns but doesnt mean that it would really be the same.I do agree into those sentiments above is that we are really that a fan on trying out compare those things in the future into the past
on which it is a normal approach but we should really be at least that realistic that things that would happen in the future wont really be totally the same because of those several factors that we do know.
Specially when it comes to crypto adoption which it is really indeed different. So we might be expecting prices to be that high but since the adoption rate and recognition is much lesser compared into those previous years
then we might not really be able to see some serious shoot up in price.

Now that we are fast approach with the halving event then we might be seeing some patterns but doesnt mean that it would really be following on the same path but well we do know that in a market
if it doesnt go up then it would go down vice versa. This is why if you are an investor or trader then you should really know on what are the things that you should gonna do.

[Jating]

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?

What happened in 2017 will not happen again in 2024 because they are different times. What will happen in 2024 halving and bull run, there is a high chance that it can be better or it can be even worse. So that seems vague, in my opinion.

All the patterns seen by expert traders in the field of cryptocurrency are just speculations; they only become true when the majority believes them and they happen at the right time. And that's how it always happens, right?

Yes as far as the market conditions and the events lined up it looks like this December will be bit different than what we witnessed during December 2017 and actually it's a good sign that we have seen so much of price movement even before the bull run which has triggered more investments which will act as shield even if we have couple of minor price corrections before the bull run. But as you mentioned towards the end of your response that we cannot merely go by expert opinions as they are just speculations and some low cap coins does swindles based on their predictions because of the followers cashing in, now majority of us are awaiting for two events one is Spot ETF & other one being Halving.

It's going to be very different every bull run though, December 2017 height was most likely trigger by the CBoE and CME if I'm not mistaken. 2021 there's no trigger point except that we are in the pandemic that time and everyone is investing or putting their money on bitcoin as a hedge and there a prediction modelling, the S2F that says we will hit $100k but it didn't happen but still the market remain bullish up to $69k.

So in 2024-2025, there could be a different form of trigger, perhaps it could be the Bitcoin spot ETF approval. Maybe we will not get one approval, but a series of them who have application in the review process already and that they are all waiting for the SEC.

[KiaKia]

Its been how many years since 2017 now? Do you know that many people are fully aware of Bitcoin compare to 2017? So I expect things to move differently this time and its already showing it, right now Bitcoin is far more bullish than ever, not as weak as the past years anymore.

I do have a concern, and that's about the ETF approval, I am wondering what can happen after the approval is over, price will suddenly rise to the top but what comes next is  unknown and it can catch people off guard.

Its Better to start planning on how to take your profits right now instead because many people will fall for the FOMO, they will think its never going to end and they will be trapped, avoid greediness, profits that's not secured is not profit.

[Jegileman]

What happened in 2017 was after the 2016 halving has taken place, it was not a year that came before the bull run but it was after the 2016 halving. So in this case, we are expecting an halving event to take place by next year, so the market looks very bullish than it looks bearish. So I am not expecting the same thing that happened in December 2017 to repeat itself now. Some events could just be coincidental but it is not actually what the market will be looking up to.

[STT]

Heres old screenshot from 2021, nothing select just found it randomly now and its a similar price to recent BTC movement:

August 2021 so 28 months ago, we walk a long way in circles to come back to where we were previous.   Main point being old pricing is highly relevant to determining our current progress but its never a repeat after all its not the first time its now encumbered with far more volume then last times we walked through these parts.
   2017 has some relevance but I think the actual prices similar to now are more important then 6 years ago.  The whole phase shifting out of end 2020 is where we should start our attempt to draw a parallel to moves now.   Even the same prices cannot be said to duplicate as Dollar every year for sure loses value.  The high of August 2021 for Dollar index was 94 and we're now 102, I just look for us to pivot around 100 and to be full speed ahead we are probably going to need DXY to register under 100 and the speculative trends to favor Dollar outflow not any attempt at Dollar strength.  Even if thats in FIAT terms and USD loses value above or below still I still would watch that for sentiment vs speculative assets which BTC is classed as.

Our current highs are about the closing weekly lows of Aug and Sept 2021, it fell back then and found support around here.   So possible resistance 43.3k, also its 50% fib retrace of the ATH to following low.  We are mid way in those two polar opposites.

[fullhdpixel]

2017 is a bullish season and OP is asking if we could experience the same or another ATH.
Every time the bull season comes, we expect a more positive response on the market price bringing it high. We're supposed to believe because that was already happen last bull run. Now, we are expecting another double of the previous ATH, quite achieving though but yes, we still don't have any assurance for this. For me, the next bull season 2024-2025 was not far from the previous years, we still expect such an uprising trend.

If we will stick on the 4 year principle, then history won't repeat it self this year, which is becoming now in to reality, because the year is already ending, and up until now, there are still no new ATH that came in, but the price we have now is only much better than what we have on the 2017 bull run.

A bull run is when the price of the cryptos are rising, so it's no brainer on why the people are so positive when that moment comes. If we are not sure that the last ATH will double on the next ATH, then we shouldn't expect for it. You are right that the next bull run would be on the year 2024-2025 but I prefer 2025 if we follow the 4 year thing that I said earlier. A 4 year gap was actually a long wait.

[Hamza2424]

A bull run is when the price of the cryptos are rising, so it's no brainer on why the people are so positive when that moment comes. If we are not sure that the last ATH will double on the next ATH, then we shouldn't expect for it. You are right that the next bull run would be on the year 2024-2025 but I prefer 2025 if we follow the 4 year thing that I said earlier. A 4 year gap was actually a long wait.

Bro, it's not about the 4-year cycle it's about the cyclical movement and sentimental developments, according to the current market scenario and movement and the developments expected in early 2024 we can say the main Bull run waive will be around late Q1 of the 2024 and 2025 will be a bullish year but just some early months and that will be the ending time of the Bull-Run.

I'm thinking so high after a healthy correction we can expect only a single last wave of the Bull in 2025 because the market doesn't need to follow the 4-year strict timeline to cover a cycle, it may range between the 1.5 years to the 4 years, but TBH I think maximum potential of the Bull run will be in the 2024 Q1 and early Q2. Maximum Bull rally lasts 7 months to 11 months and we are in early Bull wave already so expect the Sep or OCT 2024 will be the lowest Bull point, from where a last strike may happen. It all depends on the market developments.

[danherbias07]

Forget the chaos of December 2017. This time it will be different. Spot ETF is something that will change the future of Bitcoin and it's not like someone or some group out there is pumping Bitcoin. I am speculating that these are all real investors and mostly retail buyers which is good for the future of Bitcoin. It must be scattered to many people so that it won't be manipulated by anyone.
Also, take a look at the market of Bitcoin, unlike 2017 is not pumping like crazy. It's slowly getting there and with a history of $60k ATH, we are still far from reaching that. The demand will be higher once ETF is approved and I guess all we can do now is prepare. Accumulate more, buy more, and HODL. I don't think we can doubt Bitcoin at this point. It has already proven it can increase in value so many times, it's just people who keep on getting confused about it.
Let us not let those big investors take it all, we must be a part of it, and that negative view about 2017 will be gone.

[philipma1957]

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?

I mean that is supposedly the cycle is right? 2017 bull run, then followed by the bear market. So the pattern continues so not sure what you new trends are seeing here. So 2023 is pre-halving year, next year we will have the catalyst for the next bull then it might continue up to 2025.

So yeah, this is not a full pledge bull run, it's that investors are trying to push for a good price at least at the end of the year and again, for the preparation of a bitcoin block halving. So there's no new pattern, just the normal cycle that we have been seeing.

You can look the data in here:



https://www.coinglass.com/today

your chart shows a clear deviation
2017=2021
2018=2022

2019= 2023 this is the deviation

first three quarters match fourth quarter is a total mismatch

2019 2023
Q1 +12.  +72
Q2 +159  +7
Q3 -  11.  - 22

Q4. +63.    -13. this is a huge pattern change.

I would argue the first three quarters are some what simalar.

I would also argue the op’s question is senseless since

2017 > 2021 > 2025 is the proper four year cycle.


comparing 2017 to 2023 is wrong on so many angles it is hard to even think what the op meant.

I think we are in a new era with new issues. But that this year matches 2015 a lot.


which means we get to 48-50k. and profits are taken in jan.

[Rabata]

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?

The market will definitely be different this time from 2017. Now we have passed 7 years for that time, people's perception about Bitcoin has changed. At that time the price of Bitcoin was low and the number of investors decreased. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has increased and the number of investors has also increased to a large extent. In addition to ordinary investors, institutional investors also showed their positive attitude towards Bitcoin. Next year 2024 Bitcoin is going to show the highest ATH ever. Potential ETF approval and Bitcoin halving could lead to big changes in Bitcoin prices next year. Although it cannot be said for sure about ETF but Halving will definitely play an important role that will differentiate it from all previous trends.