[In Memoriam] Guess BTC price contest

[GazetaBitcoin]

This is a sort of unusual contest. It is held in the memory of light_warrior. This Ukraininan forum user went on the path to light at beginning of the month.

icopress made a kind gesture and tried to help light_warrior's family with some funds, but the family (the daughter, to be more precise) said that they would not need the money and suggested to use them for organizing a contest on the forum. Although icopress insisted on offering the funds collected from donations, light_warrior's daughter kept her decision.

As a consequence, this contest is one for light_warrior.

There are ~1200$ (0.02897796BTC) held by icopress in his escrow and most of this amount will represent the prize for the contest (meaning 0.025BTC; the difference will be used for paying the fees when sending the prizes). First place will take 50% (0.0125BTC), second place will take 30% (0.0075BTC) and third place will take 20% (0.005BTC).

Participants will have to predict BTC price from CoinMarketCap on January 9th, 2024, 2:54AM UTC time. The date and time correspond to first mined Bitcoin block. Participants will also have to explain in a few words why they believe BTC will have the prize they predicted -- this condition is a must for the application to be considered eligible.

The winners will be the ones which will predict closest prices to BTC's price from CoinMarketCap.

Eligibility
Participants must have their accounts registered before Sept 1st, 2023 and must have at least 10 merits earned in the past 120 days.
Those with legitimate negative feedback from a DT user are not eligible (the legitimacy of the feedback is analyzed by me).
Registration with multiple accounts is forbidden. If I catch anyone trying this I will leave him a negative feedback.
Each user may make only one prediction.
Predictions can not be edited.
Applications can be submitted until Dec 25th 31st, 23:59:59 (forum time).

Good luck everybody! And, if you are so kind, please say a prayer for light_warrior.

Topic is self-moderated for avoiding spam.

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[Erumo]

This is none of my business, but I would add "light a candle if you win" (that aint complicated, and as he was a Ukrainian, most likely he followed Christianity, so finding a church wont be hard) rule in addition to explanation of prediction. Coz for someone this contest my look like making profit from someone else's misfortune...

[libert19]

Coz for someone this contest my look like making profit from someone else's misfortune...

True, it looks so; I don't feel right taking part in this contest. May be better idea would be to just return the funds to donators? Donators donated money to light_warrior's family, not for the contest.

[icopress]

True, it looks so; I don't feel right taking part in this contest. May be better idea would be to just return the funds to donators? Donators donated money to light_warrior's family, not for the contest.

True, but it was an order from one of his family members.

Btw, I checked some charts and found it interesting that during all previous cycles on the eve of the halving, Bitcoin lost 30-60% of its value, so I think it is quite likely that in early January we will move the price in the range of 33-36 thousand. In addition, according to some analytical agencies, about 80% of all Hodlers have broken even, and many of them have started or will soon begin to take profits, so a return to 30 thousand seems quite justified to me.

Here's my prediction:

Code:

$33,420

[Xal0lex]

Coz for someone this contest my look like making profit from someone else's misfortune...

True, it looks so; I don't feel right taking part in this contest. May be better idea would be to just return the funds to donators? Donators donated money to light_warrior's family, not for the contest.

This contest is being held on behalf of light_warrior's daughter and with money donated to her by non-caring forum users. She has decided to dispose of these donations in this way. What's the bad thing? What is wrong with the fact that his daughter decided to hold this event in memory of her father? What kind of profit-making can we talk about? It's a kind of wake she decided to organize on the forum. On a forum that took her father's passing so sympathetically.

[paid2]

Thank you for the nice contest, it's very kind gesture from light_warrior's family 

Code:

$42,100

I think that the Ordinals mess will continue to "paralyze" the whole blockchain, and then the price will maybe stay between 41 and 44k. Most people can't move their BTC out of their wallet because of high fees, and people which are "holding" it on CEXes (I mean the majority of people looking for quick profit only) are definitely waiting
the 10th of January and a potential SEC approval on a BTC ETF + maybe some of them will wait until the halving in April.

So I make the bet that BTC will stay "calm" for the next month.

Good luck everyone!
Thanks OP!   

[JollyGood]

I would like to thank the family of light_warrior for wanting a competition held in his name and to icopress and GazetaBitcoin for taking the initiative to initiate it according to their wishes.

The reason I chose the following amount as my entry is because I do not believe the hype that exists in several circles that Bitcoin has to increase in late December to late January. I think there will not be a case where people flood the market to buy BTC and for that reason on 9th January 2024 the price will remain somewhat less than what it is today.

Code:

$39,110

[icopress]

Btw, If I may, I would like to propose extending the submission of applications until December 31st.

[mikeywith]

Thanks to LW's daughter and family for this contest, I hope they are doing better now, of course, not to forget to thank the two of you for arranging this.


Looking at the weekly chart of BTC the nearest major resistance line is at $48,200, I believe that by January 9th we will be battling that line or at least close to it, so my prediction would be

Code:

$48,200

Good luck to everyone.

[ajiz138]

Thank you GazetaBitcoin for organizing this contest in memory of light_warrior especially to his family and daughter still want this contest.

Code: $46,263

The price of bitcoin is always influenced by ETF news, recently bitcoin is back above $44K this may be triggered because the ETF will soon be approved in December, it is not certain because there is too much drama.

I think in January on the 10th will be the approval of the ETF, this is getting closer to this contest.
Because of the ETF news at the beginning of the month and the upcoming Halving so I took a higher price rather than a decline.

[Cantsay]

Thank you all for this, and most especially to light_warior’s daughter for wanting to do something for the community, I pray that she’ll continue to excel in all the at she does, she’ll find favour even when others are complaining of hardship, she will never lack, I also pray for divine strength in her life.

I’m not really good when it comes to price predictions but I strongly believe that the price will move in an upward direction and because of that I predict the price to be.

Code:

45,302

[julerz12]

Thank you GazetaBitcoin (for facilitating this contest), icopress (for informing me), and Light_warrior's family for this contest.

Code:

$55,000

Bullish, I know.
Reason: SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETF could help propel the current BTC price to new heights; if those guys suddenly announce the approval of BTC ETF in the first week of January, then that would be the main catalyst to help move things upward. I also noticed that there's an accumulation of BTC before the Chinese New Year. Also, BTC halving is just 100+ days to go; that could also be a factor for more people accumulating BTC.
While the current transaction fees are a hindrance, I think that only affects small traders; Whales, on the other hand, don't really care about the BTC fees.

[joker_josue]

If this is the family's decision, we would like to thank you and we will make sure everything goes well in memory of Light_warrior


Predictions!? I'm terrible at these things, but I'll accept the challenge. I think the price will now become a little more stable in the coming weeks. At the end of the year, people who are less dedicated to business have a lot of expectations about this ETF. If it weren't for the high rates being charged, I would even say that the price would drop further, but if so, I believe it would be around 40k.

Code:

$39,754

[Lannakosa]

A bit of a strange decision, although my help was not great, I still hoped that this money could help his daughter.

And now it turns out that this will be a BTC price contest.

[Poker Player]

I invest for the long term and what volatility does in the short term does not usually concern me much because it is unpredictable (with certainty, like using an algorithm).

Simply from the experience I have of following markets and the Bitcoin price I would say the price will then be around $47.5K.

Thanks to icopress, GazetaBitcoin and especially light_warrior's daughter.

[Etranger]

To be honest, I am surprised and a little bit concerned about such a decision made by light_warrior`s daughter. Maybe she didn't feel like she could use that money, like they didn't belong to her. However, that what she decided and I respect her choice.

I believe, that in the next couple of days we will see a little bit of growth. But during New Year`s holidays trading volume will decrease, leading to price rejection. My prediction is

Code:

$40,630

[Hatchy]

True, but it was an order from one of his family members.

I want to thank @light_warriors' daughter for giving us, the forum members, a chance to remember one of our own. May his soul rest in peace.

Lately, I've been checking out discussions about past Bitcoin halvings, and I've noticed a trend. Some months before the halving, the price tends to dip, followed by a significant positive move just before settling. This has happened before during previous halving cycles, and I'm seeing it again. In early November, Bitcoin's price went from the 25-30k range to gradually reach 39k by month end. It moved to 40k in December and has stayed between 40-45k. Based on this, I think we might see a steady range of 42-45k until late January, just before moving upwards again before the halving takes place.

Before every  Bitcoin halving, there's usually more talk and excitement in the market. This excitement often leads to a rise in Bitcoin's price because more investors want to buy enough Bitcoins before the halving event. So, considering this historical pattern, here's my prediction.

44500$

[Amphenomenon]

Thanks to @light_warrior Daughter for this, even in his passing on, he is still helping and contributing to the forum thanks once again to his daughter The Lord is your strength
My prediction is quite weird and I`m not really good at guessing but i just want to stick with it

Code:

$50,000

[Sunderland]

Thanks to GazetaBitcoin, icopress and the family of light_warrior

Code:

$43,150

The marketcap might be down a bit before a new year because of the holiday season and start rising but slow in early January.

[tabas]

That's touching honestly and thanks to all of the folks involved on this contest, lw's family, gazeta and icopress.


We've just broken the walls of $44k but then the market corrected so I think with few days remaining, this is possible to happen that we may see this price prediction that I've got. So, it's like a slow motion but possibly that it's gonna move to the next barrier of $45k, more FOMO gonna happen as January comes because of the close door meeting of BlackRock and SEC.

My price prediction:

Code:

$44,400