Mempool Observer Topic

[pakhitheboss]

It does look like that the Bitcoin network is again getting spammed by those BRC20 tokens. However, I do not have any source to prove that it is the reason. For now many speculations surround this problem, blaming it on halving events and that it is the effect of global politics. Do anyone here believe that it is the issue?

Such as the open attack of Iran on Israel and the repatriation of Israel which will be responsible for changing the dynamics of the energy sector.  I still think it is all about halving events but I do think this sudden spike in transaction price might be related to whales trying to again manipulate the market. Do you guys believe in what I wrote or there is something else in your mind?

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[fillippone]

It does look like that the Bitcoin network is again getting spammed by those BRC20 tokens. However, I do not have any source to prove that it is the reason. For now many speculations surround this problem, blaming it on halving events and that it is the effect of global politics. Do anyone here believe that it is the issue?

Such as the open attack of Iran on Israel and the repatriation of Israel which will be responsible for changing the dynamics of the energy sector.  I still think it is all about halving events but I do think this sudden spike in transaction price might be related to whales trying to again manipulate the market. Do you guys believe in what I wrote or there is something else in your mind?

Halving is going to impact Mempool for sure.
There will be two mechanisms:

• The reduced block reward will send many miners off the market, so the hash rate will drop, and with a lagging difficulty adjustment, this will cause a slowdown in block production.
• The RUNE protocol will be launched, and a flurry of new nonmonetary use of the blockchain will be enabled. Competition for the block space will then increase.

[franky1]

It does look like that the Bitcoin network is again getting spammed by those BRC20 tokens. However, I do not have any source to prove that it is the reason. For now many speculations surround this problem, blaming it on halving events and that it is the effect of global politics. Do anyone here believe that it is the issue?

Such as the open attack of Iran on Israel and the repatriation of Israel which will be responsible for changing the dynamics of the energy sector.  I still think it is all about halving events but I do think this sudden spike in transaction price might be related to whales trying to again manipulate the market. Do you guys believe in what I wrote or there is something else in your mind?

Halving is going to impact Mempool for sure.
There will be two mechanisms:

• The reduced block reward will send many miners off the market, so the hash rate will drop, and with a lagging difficulty adjustment, this will cause a slowdown in block production.
• The RUNE protocol will be launched, and a flurry of new nonmonetary use of the blockchain will be enabled. Competition for the block space will then increase.

majority of miners are asic farms that dont day play trading to ascertain profits. they buy hardware and electric contract in bundles of 2 years and they mine throughout that period and then account the rewards vs costs to calculate the next 2 year hardware life-cycle
(this is one reason why the ATH happen after a halving and the push doesnt happen at the halving, because the profitability accounting doesnt happen on halving day, but afterwards)

its also been ascertained and explained
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478905.msg63933800#msg63933800
that the first half of 2024 is a 2x profit. and at the halving margins will return to the level of 6 months ago when miners were earning half as much as now.. so not many will be jumping ship on halving event

as for runes. well most people have been through 3 cycles of junk metadata fake NFT so the amount of buyers of these newest junk wont be fooled a third time so the spam should not last as long. hopefully spam victims wised up to ordinals then further wised up to brc and not willing to pay the scammers a third time. so hopefully the income scammers use as fee's dries up quicker and they stop spamming sooner

[examplens]

its also been ascertained and explained
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478905.msg63933800#msg63933800
that the first half of 2024 is a 2x profit. and at the halving margins will return to the level of 6 months ago when miners were earning half as much as now.. so not many will be jumping ship on halving event

Miners at some point have quite a good profit, as you say x2 or more, but after a certain period, they would have to spend most of that profit on new hardware to stay at least on x1 profit. That business model is still quite twisted for me.

[stompix]

its also been ascertained and explained
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478905.msg63933800#msg63933800
that the first half of 2024 is a 2x profit. and at the halving margins will return to the level of 6 months ago when miners were earning half as much as now.. so not many will be jumping ship on halving event

Except for some minor details:
- minimum income per Th/s in the last 6 months was 5 cents 44 on the 17 of October
- Viabtc is showing right now 9.88 cents per th/s, half of that would be 4.96 , so a full 10% off.
This is revenue
- the hashrate on the last point of earning in the last 6 months was 240Exahash, now it's around 680Exahash.

Everything under s19xp will stop producing anything worth more than their scrap value at 6 cents/kwh, at 6 cents kwh all s19 including the first 90 the model was still viable in terms of ROI back in November!

But yeah, let's not listen to actual miners like Phil who is considering shutting down, let's just split things in two and say everything will be fine!

Miners at some point have quite a good profit, as you say x2 or more, but after a certain period, they would have to spend most of that profit on new hardware to stay at least on x1 profit. That business model is still quite twisted for me.

One tiny detail, the revenue gets halved, the profit might get....axed!  

Fees back to ~30sat/vb , there is simply no demand despite ordinals to keep them higher!

[FeeBuddy]

     

• fastestFee: 44 sat/vB
• halfHourFee: 40 sat/vB
• hourFee: 36 sat/vB
• economyFee: 12 sat/vB
• minimumFee: 6 sat/vB

[bitmover]

Fees back to ~30sat/vb , there is simply no demand despite ordinals to keep them higher!

I believe there isn't a demand to keep them at 30 for long! Once ordinals stop and all those queued transactions and consolidations complete, fees will get lower.

The problem is that ordinals are always coming up shooting fees above 100 s/VB from time to time... then we see lots of blocks with just a few transactions while the other ones gets queued.

(I manually add a feebuddy post, I wasn't able to bring him back automatically yet)

[franky1]

its also been ascertained and explained
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478905.msg63933800#msg63933800
that the first half of 2024 is a 2x profit. and at the halving margins will return to the level of 6 months ago when miners were earning half as much as now.. so not many will be jumping ship on halving event

Miners at some point have quite a good profit, as you say x2 or more, but after a certain period, they would have to spend most of that profit on new hardware to stay at least on x1 profit. That business model is still quite twisted for me.

current hardware, current market spot =2x profit, they can continue with current hardware after halving to get 1x.. much like the position they were in 6 months ago(still not poor).. then the market will rise slowly again to get to 2x progressively over months to reach a 2025 ATH which is when they peak to then sell and then use that to buy new hardware for a new hardware lifecycle... as the other halving -> ATH cycles have done

most dont just give up mining as previous halvings have shown

its only the hobbyist miner on residential(higher) electric that come and go so quickly due to market fluctuations

Everything under s19xp will stop producing

small hobbyists that dont account their costs properly and just jump in and out and dont upgrade hardware on two year lifecycles get stuck in unprofitable conditions where they have to stop.. however smart miners that have been successfully and professionally mining long term dont look at the whims of the temporary market to be jumping out so quick
instead they carry on and let the market spot play out.

but atleast your fears shows more about YOUR feared action you would take in coming days... which is kinda funny when you been screaming how you say your electric costs were super cheap on your s17 you host with the pool you keep promoting as cheapest electric.... your fears suggest otherwise now

[cryptosize]

1,590 sat/vB

https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001cfe8671cb9269dfeded2c4e900e365fffae09b34b119

This is a joke, right?

Can't wait to see $1000 minimum per transaction in late 2025.

[cryptosize]

https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000028458274b1f458d57d817fdce349e31dd5cb51b277d36

2,288 sat/vB

It keeps getting worse and worse (or even better for miners)...

So much for "oh noez, mining will no longer be profitable after the halving"!

ps: At first I thought it was some kind of mempool April Fools' prank specifically made for the halvening, but then I remembered Runes launch.

[franky1]

1,590 sat/vB

https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001cfe8671cb9269dfeded2c4e900e365fffae09b34b119

This is a joke, right?

Can't wait to see $1000 minimum per transaction in late 2025.

alot of people wanted to get their UTXO in block 840,000 so paid stupid fee's to outbid competition, not everyone could get in so some are getting their tx added in later blocks so expect the fee's to be high, out of stupid milestone notoriety hopes

we will see this wave of idiocy of 840k notoriety bidding war die down and then go back to the idiocy of the newest junk/scam spam of runes that replaced the brc ordinals scam spam

[bitmover]

Happy halving everyone!!!

[Phobos_Quake]

[/quote]

alot of people wanted to get their UTXO in block 840,000 so paid stupid fee's to outbid competition, not everyone could get in so some are getting their tx added in later blocks so expect the fee's to be high, out of stupid milestone notoriety hopes

we will see this wave of idiocy of 840k notoriety bidding war die down and then go back to the idiocy of the newest junk/scam spam of runes that replaced the brc ordinals scam spam
[/quote]

Thank you, i didn't understand why fees went up.

[examplens]

Happy halving everyone!!!

Yeah 

alot of people wanted to get their UTXO in block 840,000 so paid stupid fee's to outbid competition, not everyone could get in so some are getting their tx added in later blocks so expect the fee's to be high, out of stupid milestone notoriety hopes

we will see this wave of idiocy of 840k notoriety bidding war die down and then go back to the idiocy of the newest junk/scam spam of runes that replaced the brc ordinals scam spam

What madness if that is really the reason.

[cryptosize]

Fees started dropping again... I guess it's not really sustainable to burn your huge BTC stash forever.

In essence all this NFT hype is a self-regulating market.

A few BTC whales burn their stash, they enrich miners and this distributes BTC on a wider basis (thousands of miners).

Theoretically even Satoshi could do this with his huge 1.1m BTC stash and it would last quite a bit before he would ran out of fuel...

[Phobos_Quake]

Yes, a bit worrisome if some entities get together to keep Bitcoin fees high for a period of time. Expensive, but possible.

[BitMaxz]

OMG whats happening on the recommended fee on mempool.space its too expensive I was waiting for the fee to drop below 50sat/vbyte but after block halving and check the mempool.space again I saw this look at the image below.



What do you think about the fee will the old fees will come back?
I don't think its a good idea to make a new transaction today too expensive.

[nutildah]

Simply stunning.



I'm sure the whole Runes thing has something to do with it as well, but that will die down in a month or two. Hard to really assess the impact in drop in hash rate yet, need another day to let things unfold before coming to any conclusions.

Halving Day... the same day my Bitcointalk account turns 10 years old 🎉

[PX-Z]

alot of people wanted to get their UTXO in block 840,000 so paid stupid fee's to outbid competition, not everyone could get in so some are getting their tx added in later blocks so expect the fee's to be high, out of stupid milestone notoriety hopes

we will see this wave of idiocy of 840k notoriety bidding war die down and then go back to the idiocy of the newest junk/scam spam of runes that replaced the brc ordinals scam spam

This is the worst thing i can saw in all the history if bitcoin transaction fees lmao. Based in mempool.space bitcoin fees will got 4sat/vB after an estimate of 240 blocks, if my calculation is right it will happen in 2 days which is not long but lot will happen in those days which might increase the logs and will expand the duration before the fees get too low or back at least 20sat/vB.

[B3dr0ck]

so does that answer my question as ----



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Re: Happy 4th Bitcoin Halving
Today at 02:11:45 AM
   
Reply with quote Edit message Delete message  +Merit  #11
Can someone tell me WTF is going on with TX fees since the having block, 840,000

Typical blocks are .4 - 2BTC

Blocks since 840,000 have been
37BTC
4 BTC
7 BTC
16 BTC
24 BTC
30 BTC
23 BTC
17 BTC
12 BTC
9 BTC
17 BTC
19 BTC
17 BTC
23 BTC
21 BTC

Transactions seem higher too.  So at this point the mining reward has gone up, by 3-5 fold.