HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands

[MusaPk]

I don't have any problems comparing them, but yeah, they are different categories of things and each of them can work well under certain kinds of circumstances, and surely a person who has a lump sum available has options regarding how to consider investing, whether that is lump sum all of it or to perhaps lump sum part and maybe even DCA other parts and buy on dips with other parts.

A person who does not have a lump sum available has to just deal with cash as it comes in, and in some cases, there are folks who do not have good habits of saving and/or investing and maybe they don't even really know how to do it, so DCA would likely be better for them because they can just choose an amount to invest over whatever period of time that is based on how much disposable income that they have, and if they were to save it in cash and then invest it later, then that may or may not be practical, but it could end up being a form of lump sum that is buying on dip if they really think that there might be utility in terms of waiting when they get into BTC.. which it is never really clear when those periods of long and deep correction are going to happen and at the same time, even if they happened in a certain pattern in the past, it is not even close to assured that such long and deep corrections are going to happen in similar ways in the future... even though bitcoin's ongoing volatility is likely inevitable, we just can never really be sure of the direction (especially in the short-to-medium term, even if even if we can develop theories and even probabilities). 

If you are going to invest in Lump Sum manner then price is very important at which you are investing your whole money. Like as I already said, investing 20k$ when price of Bitcoin is 67k$ will lock your investment for indefinite period of time while investing same amount when price of Bitcoin is 20k$ is better option. You are right in saying that we don't know exactly when its bottom or just the start of dip. So one has to do that risk analysis if he is trying to invest in Lump sum manner.
While in case of DCA there is less risk involved compared to Lump sum. In DCA, all you need is to accumulate Bitcoin slowly and based on historic data DCA for 4 to 5 years has been a profitable strategy.

[JayJuanGee]

When we hold Bitcoin in real life, we see that it has both advantages and disadvantages. If we look closely, owning Bitcoin for a long time can provide possible rewards.

One of these advantages is that it provides high profits and inflation protection, but it also involves large risks due to volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and security issues. Before making any investing decisions, think about your risk tolerance, financial objectives, and understanding of the bitcoin market.

Volatility is only a big concern if you plan to hold bitcoin in short term. If you hold it long term, like about 5 years, volatility is not your concern because price is strongly upward.

ROI chart shows this fact https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart
Choose different time frame like 1 year, Year to date, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years and see different ROIs. With 5-year ROI chart, I am sure you will see no concern with Bitcoin volatility in short term.

Interesting historical comparative charts on that casebitcoin.com website.

I don't have any problems comparing them, but yeah, they are different categories of things and each of them can work well under certain kinds of circumstances, and surely a person who has a lump sum available has options regarding how to consider investing, whether that is lump sum all of it or to perhaps lump sum part and maybe even DCA other parts and buy on dips with other parts.

A person who does not have a lump sum available has to just deal with cash as it comes in, and in some cases, there are folks who do not have good habits of saving and/or investing and maybe they don't even really know how to do it, so DCA would likely be better for them because they can just choose an amount to invest over whatever period of time that is based on how much disposable income that they have, and if they were to save it in cash and then invest it later, then that may or may not be practical, but it could end up being a form of lump sum that is buying on dip if they really think that there might be utility in terms of waiting when they get into BTC.. which it is never really clear when those periods of long and deep correction are going to happen and at the same time, even if they happened in a certain pattern in the past, it is not even close to assured that such long and deep corrections are going to happen in similar ways in the future... even though bitcoin's ongoing volatility is likely inevitable, we just can never really be sure of the direction (especially in the short-to-medium term, even if even if we can develop theories and even probabilities). 

If you are going to invest in Lump Sum manner then price is very important at which you are investing your whole money.

I don't think about it like that, because I don't believe in any waiting around when it comes to trying to figure out when to get into bitcoin, so to me it does not matter what the price is, there is a need to get in and to get off zero as soon as possible.  There is no way to prepare for UP, unless you have some bitcoin.

So then the question merely becomes how to get started, and is there any desire (and/or ability to front load with a bit of a lump sum, and if so then perhaps some value should be thrown in as a lump sum right away).. then the other part would be figuring out what to do after making the initial investment, but if you have at least made an initial investment then you have some level of preparedness for UP, and so then you would therefore be in a better position to wait for down if you had already bought some.. and waiting for down can be buying on dips and/or DCA.   

So then at that point, it might matter what is your budget and what are your goals and if you lump sum with total your goal, then you still might need to consider buying on dips and DCA just to buttress your investment in case price goes down rather than up, but if you have invested less than your goal then maybe you already built in the ability to DCA and buy on dips. so of course DCA is a kind of time-released way of investing and buying on dips is price based.

Like as I already said, investing 20k$ when price of Bitcoin is 67k$ will lock your investment for indefinite period of time while investing same amount when price of Bitcoin is 20k$ is better option.

It would have had been stupid to invest $20k at $67k if that was all the money that you had for the next 6 months, but it would not be stupid to invest $20k at $67k if you had some DCA amount of maybe $1k or $2k per month that you could buy or some other funds that you could buy on dips... I am not going to proclaim the whole ratio, but anyone could have looked at the charts and saw that $67k was on an upward trajectory, even if many folks were expecting higher prices such as supra $100k or even higher, and I even had my own charts that had supra $1.5 million within them (yeah only less than a 0.5% chance, but it was still listed as a possibility) (see this post of mine from December 2021).. but still I don't have a lot of sympathy when folks play only one direction, and especially if they were to invest $20k at $67k and then sit on their investment for the next 2 years without investing more.. since surely anyone could have continued to invest and maybe over 2 years, they could have had invested another $20k

So let's do the math.

Initial purchase of $20k at $66,667 = 0.3 BTC.   and then to DCA $200 per week from December 1, 2021 until now would have resulted in $22.8k invested and 0.9374 BTC.  So that would mean a total of 1.2374 BTC (currently valued at $53,208) and $42,800 invested.  So that would not be a bad place to be, and part of my point is that if someone is wiling to put $20k at the then top of the BTC price, they better also be prepared to continue to invest, otherwise they were gambling and not investing and I have little sympathy for folks with that level of lack of preparedness and/or overinvesting in those kinds of ways.

So even if a person took a strong front loading stance, even at the top of the market, they likely are still able to figure out a way to have some kind of follow through rather than merely whining that their initial investment was still not in profits.

My own way to frame this kind of investment would be to divide the 6 month budget into 3 parts and then to  invest 1/3 into each of the three parts (which is lump sum, DCA and buying on dips), so if the total budget was $20k then that would be $6,667 into each of the three parts.  But if the person had $20k in pocket and then an income of that might allow for $300 per week for the next 6 months, so then maybe the whole budget for 6 months might be considered to be considered as $27,800 (which would be 26 x $300).. so then if that is divided into 3 then each of the three parts would be $9,2667, and so after the end of the 6 months there might be a reassessment regarding what to do in regards to continuing with DCA and/or if there might be any more buying on dips and/or lump sums.   

I am not suggesting that I know the answer, but those should be the kinds of consideration for anyone who is investing into something like bitcoin and coming into the investment when the price is seeming to be in an upward direction, and so part of my point is that there is no need to wait, but still at the same time there are needs to have abilities to follow through and to commit especially if anyone is thinking that he has $20k that he can lump sum invest into BTC when the prices were at $67k. 

If you know anyone who did that and has been sitting on their hands for the last 2-ish years, I would say that they surely were lacking in their abilities and their foresight and their making a reasonable investment plan that would have likely ended up being way more profitable than the way that they came at the situation.

You are right in saying that we don't know exactly when its bottom or just the start of dip. So one has to do that risk analysis if he is trying to invest in Lump sum manner.

I have nothing wrong with lump sum, and I think it is a very good plan; however, if the price moves against you, you are going to be fucked if you don't have conviction to keep investing, and if you come to an investment such as bitcoin without any more conviction than to throw $20k at it at $67k , then you deserve what you got.

While in case of DCA there is less risk involved compared to Lump sum.

I would not really say that we do DCA because there is less risk, even though there is some truth that it likely takes more capital to justify anyone who might do a lump sum should be ready, willing and able to justify why he is doing it that way, and I am just not sure why such a person would not be ready, willing and able to follow up if he invested $20k at $67k.. and sure maybe your example is not that great, but people use these kinds of examples all the time, to describe the poor schmuck who lump sum invested at the top, and again, I have no sympathy for such smucks or for such whining stories... especially since we can look at BTC charts and see that it has been the best investment for 13 years, so why would not anyone coming into bitcoin at least do a wee bit of looking at price history in order to temper his "investment" approach?

In DCA, all you need is to accumulate Bitcoin slowly and based on historic data DCA for 4 to 5 years has been a profitable strategy.

Sure if the DCA person does not have any lump sum that is available, then he is looking at his discretionary/disposable income and deciding how much he is able to invest based on those kinds of limitations, so he can be as aggressive as he is able to be, but yes, he is limited by his discretionary/disposable income.. which is the difference between his income and his expenses.... but within that he could choose to invest 100% of his disposable/discretionary income, and that might be aggressive.. .. and surely if anyone is investing 100% of his discretionary/disposable income, he is going to need to have some variations of emergency fund, float and/or reserves in place.. even if non of that is authorized to be allocated (or invested) into bitcoin.

[Pi-network314159]

Snip

If you are going to invest in Lump Sum manner then price is very important at which you are investing your whole money. Like as I already said, investing 20k$ when price of Bitcoin is 67k$ will lock your investment for indefinite period of time while investing same amount when price of Bitcoin is 20k$ is better option. You are right in saying that we don't know exactly when its bottom or just the start of dip. So one has to do that risk analysis if he is trying to invest in Lump sum manner.
While in case of DCA there is less risk involved compared to Lump sum. In DCA, all you need is to accumulate Bitcoin slowly and based on historic data DCA for 4 to 5 years has been a profitable strategy.

DCA is the best option in bitcoin accumulation on weekly still stand out to be the best option in investing on bitcoin compeard to other form of investment. Expecially when it's don continuously for over a period of time.  I was afraid of accumulating bitcoin due to it high transaction fee but I was able to use my campaign bitcoin to use as my accumulated Bitcoin an now it serves as my DCA without stress now when people talk about DCA it sound like campaign to me. So now I am beginning to love this DCA at first it is always difficult but finally I have started accumulation. Because talking without investment is like a waste of time but decided to take it to another level this year and see what the result might be by the year ending.

[pinggoki]

One of the best means to make a profitable Investment with bitcoin is when we decided to hodl the coin for some time, this is not because we are not interested about using it to serve for its purpose as a digital currency we use for making payments or as a means of exchange, but we wanted to hodl all because we also have the opportunity of using bitcoin as an asset we could Invest on hodl for a particular time to yield profits instead of turning a liability provided we have the tenacity for doing that.

Don't forget to also find ways to increase the bitcoin that you're currently hodling because you will never know how you'll fair if you just depend on the current amount until the ATH is reached, make sure that you're actively doing other things that can make you money like finding a steady job that will generate you a paycheck and if you got that already then a side hustle that will not be a problem for your main job or would take a lot of energy and time to do. Don't just hodl, be an active participant to the market movement, contribute by trading or just doing DCA to slowly accumulate what you're currently hodling and always remember that those with diamond hands are going to be the one that will enjoy the most profits.

[Darker45]

Speaking of hodling, if I may emphasize, especially to those who are still thinking twice until now, time isn't on our side, folks. I may sound as if I'm inciting FOMO, but that's the reality. The train will leave at some point. To those who are putting off buying every time, you might indeed miss out the opportunity. Yeah, we can buy anytime. Yeah, we can buy small portions. But hodling is nothing else but about price appreciation.

Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

[tread93]

This map is a great visual, its nice to be able to scroll all the way down to see the full history and prices of Bitcoin. Those DCA calculators are great as well, these can always be helpful with visualization of your BTC stacking goals. All of these great tools, I would like to add something kind of fun to this mix is this one: https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/

(Just copied from Clark Moody:

All-Time High Price
$69,010
Decline from ATH
-37.80%
ATH Date
November 10, 2021
Days Since ATH
815

Just seeing it there looking at you brings back memories of 3 years prior and I know that day is coming again! Indeed, we need to HODL and keep these hands strong  

[JayJuanGee]

Speaking of hodling, if I may emphasize, especially to those who are still thinking twice until now, time isn't on our side, folks. I may sound as if I'm inciting FOMO, but that's the reality. The train will leave at some point. To those who are putting off buying every time, you might indeed miss out the opportunity. Yeah, we can buy anytime. Yeah, we can buy small portions. But hodling is nothing else but about price appreciation.

Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

I don't disagree with your overall point about the higher levels of BTC price appreciation are likely going to be much more difficult to achieve, but they still are not impossible...especially since bitcoin is about 1/20th of the market cap of gold, but bitcoin is about 1,000x better than gold, so bitcoin does likely have another 20,000x of price appreciation before reaching all of its likely addressable market and it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin to reach its total addressable market.. and it is not even guaranteed to make gold parity, eve though many folks do recognize bitcoin being in the ballpark of 1,000x better than gold.

So whenever we invest into anything we can look at downside versus upside and also consider that even though bitcoin does not have as much upside potential, its investment thesis is likely stronger today than it has ever been, yet there are still a lot of folks who are barely even learning about bitcoin and barely even getting to the point of considering investing into it, whether it is through some kind of ETF or buying it directly.. and surely the ETF is the inferior product, yet many folks (besides already established bitcoiners) realize that direct ownership of bitcoin is the superior product.

[Darker45]

Speaking of hodling, if I may emphasize, especially to those who are still thinking twice until now, time isn't on our side, folks. I may sound as if I'm inciting FOMO, but that's the reality. The train will leave at some point. To those who are putting off buying every time, you might indeed miss out the opportunity. Yeah, we can buy anytime. Yeah, we can buy small portions. But hodling is nothing else but about price appreciation.

Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

I don't disagree with your overall point about the higher levels of BTC price appreciation are likely going to be much more difficult to achieve, but they still are not impossible...especially since bitcoin is about 1/20th of the market cap of gold, but bitcoin is about 1,000x better than gold, so bitcoin does likely have another 20,000x of price appreciation before reaching all of its likely addressable market and it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin to reach its total addressable market.. and it is not even guaranteed to make gold parity, eve though many folks do recognize bitcoin being in the ballpark of 1,000x better than gold.

So whenever we invest into anything we can look at downside versus upside and also consider that even though bitcoin does not have as much upside potential, its investment thesis is likely stronger today than it has ever been, yet there are still a lot of folks who are barely even learning about bitcoin and barely even getting to the point of considering investing into it, whether it is through some kind of ETF or buying it directly.. and surely the ETF is the inferior product, yet many folks (besides already established bitcoiners) realize that direct ownership of bitcoin is the superior product.

Indeed, Bitcoin is better than gold in many aspects, but I don't see it overtaking gold anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I don't think Bitcoin's market cap will come close to gold's in the next decade. The huge potential is there, of course, but it will certainly take a much longer term for a new hodler to gain what could be reached in a mere blink of an eye in the past.

For now, 4 years is more or less enough for a Bitcoin investor to be of profit. To those who will come late, however, those who will finally do the buying at $100,000, $120,000, or $150,000, a price they deserve, 4 years might not be enough for their investment to even double. In which case, a simple business venture might fare better.

[GreatArkansas]

(...)
Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

You have a point here, but you must consider those days about "easily rewarded about x10, x1000,x2000". Those days are high risk, no one knows what will be the future, so for me, it's high-risk high reward happened before and all who experienced, them deserve it.
For now, we must appreciate what we have now, especially in Bitcoin, x2,x3,x5 is enough already if you really looking for investment.

[MusaPk]

So let's do the math.

Initial purchase of $20k at $66,667 = 0.3 BTC.   and then to DCA $200 per week from December 1, 2021 until now would have resulted in $22.8k invested and 0.9374 BTC.  So that would mean a total of 1.2374 BTC (currently valued at $53,208) and $42,800 invested.  So that would not be a bad place to be, and part of my point is that if someone is wiling to put $20k at the then top of the BTC price, they better also be prepared to continue to invest, otherwise they were gambling and not investing and I have little sympathy for folks with that level of lack of preparedness and/or overinvesting in those kinds of ways.

Fair enough.

I have nothing wrong with lump sum, and I think it is a very good plan; however, if the price moves against you, you are going to be fucked if you don't have conviction to keep investing, and if you come to an investment such as bitcoin without any more conviction than to throw $20k at it at $67k , then you deserve what you got.

Lump Sum has also given good results and one can check on dcacryptocalculator.com previous results of Lump Sum. Its best to see Lump Sum investment on different instances and that will give you fair idea about that. If you are brand new to Bitcoin then just wait and understand the market first. If you spend some time in the market and see historical data then you get a fair idea about when to go for Lump Sum.

I would not really say that we do DCA because there is less risk, even though there is some truth that it likely takes more capital to justify anyone who might do a lump sum should be ready, willing and able to justify why he is doing it that way, and I am just not sure why such a person would not be ready, willing and able to follow up if he invested $20k at $67k.. and sure maybe your example is not that great, but people use these kinds of examples all the time, to describe the poor schmuck who lump sum invested at the top, and again, I have no sympathy for such smucks or for such whining stories... especially since we can look at BTC charts and see that it has been the best investment for 13 years, so why would not anyone coming into bitcoin at least do a wee bit of looking at price history in order to temper his "investment" approach?

This is what I was saying that we must see previous price charts of Bitcoin and see how price moved over last 13 years. In Dec 2017, 19k$ was ATH but today we have 67K$ as ATH. Year or two from today may be we have 100k$, 0.5M as ATH - Who knows?

Sure if the DCA person does not have any lump sum that is available, then he is looking at his discretionary/disposable income and deciding how much he is able to invest based on those kinds of limitations, so he can be as aggressive as he is able to be, but yes, he is limited by his discretionary/disposable income.. which is the difference between his income and his expenses.... but within that he could choose to invest 100% of his disposable/discretionary income, and that might be aggressive.. .. and surely if anyone is investing 100% of his discretionary/disposable income, he is going to need to have some variations of emergency fund, float and/or reserves in place.. even if non of that is authorized to be allocated (or invested) into bitcoin.

It again comes down to understanding the market. Whether you are going for DCA or Lump Sum one need to understand that he is investing for long duration and it may take some time before his investment will be in profit. There is possibility that we start investing and price start going up but this may not be the case every time.

[avp2306]

Speaking of hodling, if I may emphasize, especially to those who are still thinking twice until now, time isn't on our side, folks. I may sound as if I'm inciting FOMO, but that's the reality. The train will leave at some point. To those who are putting off buying every time, you might indeed miss out the opportunity. Yeah, we can buy anytime. Yeah, we can buy small portions. But hodling is nothing else but about price appreciation.

Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

I don't disagree with your overall point about the higher levels of BTC price appreciation are likely going to be much more difficult to achieve, but they still are not impossible...especially since bitcoin is about 1/20th of the market cap of gold, but bitcoin is about 1,000x better than gold, so bitcoin does likely have another 20,000x of price appreciation before reaching all of its likely addressable market and it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin to reach its total addressable market.. and it is not even guaranteed to make gold parity, eve though many folks do recognize bitcoin being in the ballpark of 1,000x better than gold.

So whenever we invest into anything we can look at downside versus upside and also consider that even though bitcoin does not have as much upside potential, its investment thesis is likely stronger today than it has ever been, yet there are still a lot of folks who are barely even learning about bitcoin and barely even getting to the point of considering investing into it, whether it is through some kind of ETF or buying it directly.. and surely the ETF is the inferior product, yet many folks (besides already established bitcoiners) realize that direct ownership of bitcoin is the superior product.

Indeed, Bitcoin is better than gold in many aspects, but I don't see it overtaking gold anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I don't think Bitcoin's market cap will come close to gold's in the next decade. The huge potential is there, of course, but it will certainly take a much longer term for a new hodler to gain what could be reached in a mere blink of an eye in the past.

For now, 4 years is more or less enough for a Bitcoin investor to be of profit. To those who will come late, however, those who will finally do the buying at $100,000, $120,000, or $150,000, a price they deserve, 4 years might not be enough for their investment to even double. In which case, a simple business venture might fare better.

That's why we are here trading bitcoin and not gold since we find it more bullish than gold in terms of profit gaining in some time span since gold takes a long time before we can feel that we are on profit. Compare to bitcoin that anything is possible especially if there's a huge news that can hype the market and help to build up the demand.

4 year cycle might really best especially that halving season will occur and that's good timeline for anyone to sell their bitcoins if they want to cashout their profits for deciding to hold on that timeline. Also whatever price they decide to buy I think its still fine as long as they can afford it and there's still huge potential for bitcoin to rise up especially if the demand still strong in future.

[MusaPk]

DCA is the best option in bitcoin accumulation on weekly still stand out to be the best option in investing on bitcoin compeard to other form of investment. Expecially when it's don continuously for over a period of time.  I was afraid of accumulating bitcoin due to it high transaction fee but I was able to use my campaign bitcoin to use as my accumulated Bitcoin an now it serves as my DCA without stress now when people talk about DCA it sound like campaign to me. So now I am beginning to love this DCA at first it is always difficult but finally I have started accumulation. Because talking without investment is like a waste of time but decided to take it to another level this year and see what the result might be by the year ending.

I have done few calculations about accumulating Bitcoin in DCA manner and you can see on that post what result you get after a certain period of time. Bitcoin transaction fee is high these days (this high fee play a significant role in security of the bitcoin network by preventing network abuse) but it wasn't high previously and will come down soon. You will see benefits of DCA if you are planning to invest for next 4 to 5 years or for longer duration.
Following is great tool where you can see results of DCA by varying parameters. 
https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

[Moreno233]

(...)
Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

You have a point here, but you must consider those days about "easily rewarded about x10, x1000,x2000". Those days are high risk, no one knows what will be the future, so for me, it's high-risk high reward happened before and all who experienced, them deserve it.
For now, we must appreciate what we have now, especially in Bitcoin, x2,x3,x5 is enough already if you really looking for investment.

It was when I started using the DCA method I started appreciating the significance of getting x2 or thereabout in my investment. Coming from the background of hoping for x100 amidst several pain of loses and falling victim of scam, I have come to realize that it is truly a matter of amplified risk to see x100 in ones investment. This much needed understanding was necessary for the calmness I'm enjoying, investing in Bitcoin with my expectations being reasonable and achievable.

Bitcoin may not give x100 now or in the near future but it still have a huge potential for growth. To me I have double advantage investing in Bitcoin which is the fact that Bitcoin is appreciating against the dollar while dollar is appreciating against my local currency as inflation is now at 29% in my country. So it is a rare privilege to be invested in Bitcoin and also building my wealth already.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Indeed, Bitcoin is better than gold in many aspects, but I don't see it overtaking gold anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I don't think Bitcoin's market cap will come close to gold's in the next decade. The huge potential is there, of course, but it will certainly take a much longer term for a new hodler to gain what could be reached in a mere blink of an eye in the past.

For now, 4 years is more or less enough for a Bitcoin investor to be of profit. To those who will come late, however, those who will finally do the buying at $100,000, $120,000, or $150,000, a price they deserve, 4 years might not be enough for their investment to even double. In which case, a simple business venture might fare better.

Of course, we are free to have any kind of speculative view and/or framework that we like in terms of the likely sharpness of bitcoin's future price direction curve.. and/or how exponential it is likely to be.

I personally don't find anything wrong with being largely conservative, and I never really changed my expectations too much in regards to a kind of 6% per year (on average) price appreciation, even though I learned about the 200-week moving average and I have been somewhat obsessed with developing price theories around that in the past 3-4 years (and maybe it has been a bit longer than that), but I think that PlanB might have kind of subliminally sucked me into using the 200-WMA. Both my fuck you status chart and my ideas around sustainable withdraw gravitate around the 200-WMA.

So essentially I agree with you about past performance not being able to ensure future results, and also that we are likely to ongoingly continue to experience a lessening of the growth curve, yet at the same time, we likely cannot deny that even relatively gradual ongoing and upwards progression is likely to continue to have quite exponential effects upon bitcoin's overall market cap and that we should not be treating bitcoin as even close to being a mature asset class.

Just to repeat to you my overall tentative punchline, it seems to me that bitcoin could well get to between 1x and 20x of gold's market cap within this cycle or perhaps within 1-2 more cycles into the future, and then I am tentatively thinking that the range between 20x and 1,000x of gold's market cap might take quite a bit longer to play out.. maybe 20 to 200 years.. but  of course if bitcoin becomes the world's reserve currency and the base of the monetary system, then surely there would likely be a quite a few other unknowables that likely would be in play, including other inventions and other ways in which value comes into the world.. so if we might be considering the current addressable market getting close to $1 quadrillion, yet even if we are not inflating away the values, it may well be that the total addressable market could even grow 10x, 20x or even more than that, especially if we are looking 80 years to 200 years into the future.^**

** By the way, I think that it is important to point out that bitcoin's lowest ever performance of the increase in the 200-week moving average played out between June 2022 and November 2023, and that was at a rate of 20% annualized, and so I am not even proclaiming that the rate is not going to go lower than 20% annualized, yet the fact that the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, we are able to use it as a measure to figure out if we might need to make adjustments in our own valuations of our BTC holdings... which I also think that I attempt to accomplish that in my fuck you status chart projections of the bottom (the 200-WMA) continuing to have a decreasing slope, which implies that there could be periods of time in which it also might go negative, even though I keep it going upwards in that particular chart that projects out to 2074 (based on limitations of the page's memory).

I am not really opposed to ideas in which current investors should attempt to be somewhat conservative in their overall expectations of bitcoin's price growth, yet they might end up screwing themselves if they are overly conservative and fail/refuse to adequately prepare psychologically and/or financially for some fo the various more bullish scenarios. which may contribute to their selling too much too soon or maybe not even investing into bitcoin because they believe it has topped or that there are various other competing projects (such as shitcoins or even fiat-reliant investments) that have abilities to compete with bitcoin in terms of longer terms trajectories..

and the power of monetary soundness.. that, in the line of Gresham's law principles causes all value to gravitate towards the soundest of monies, which is currently bitcoin and there is no evidence that any thing is going to come even close to being able to compete with bitcoin, absent some kind of a new revelation of some kind of bitcoin flaw.  So anyhow your own numbers seem to be way overly conservative, even though it does not hurt to have them in mind as possibilities or even a base case (even though they are likely not really seeming to account for what bitcoin really is).

(...)
Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

You have a point here, but you must consider those days about "easily rewarded about x10, x1000,x2000". Those days are high risk, no one knows what will be the future, so for me, it's high-risk high reward happened before and all who experienced, them deserve it.
For now, we must appreciate what we have now, especially in Bitcoin, x2,x3,x5 is enough already if you really looking for investment.

It is true that the upside potential for bitcoin is somewhat obviously reduced - especially when starting out from zero, and even if we start to measure from early 2012 (when BTC prices were around $5), we still end up with quite large exponential BTC price growth in the past 12 years.

Even given all of those kinds of appreciation for bitcoin's growth, we likely can still recognize that bitcoin likely has a stronger investment thesis today than it had at earlier times, even if we consider bitcoin from 2017 when the fork wars had resolved some issues in regards to bitcoin's resilience. So yeah, part of the punchline with a stronger investment thesis does also come with less upside potential.. but also less downside potential... even though the possibility of going to zero never completely disappears, but bitcoin's having a strong investment thesis likely comes from the fact that scenarios of it going to zero have been concluded as being less and less and less likely with the passage of time (a real world application of the Lindy Effect).

[edited out]

This is what I was saying that we must see previous price charts of Bitcoin and see how price moved over last 13 years. In Dec 2017, 19k$ was ATH but today we have 67K$ as ATH. Year or two from today may be we have 100k$, 0.5M as ATH - Who knows?

Sure we cannot ignore the various all time highs, and maybe part of the reason I get so nervous in regards to bitcoin about trying to figure out what to do or how to think about bitcoin from various ATHs is that they have tendencies (and likely inevitabilities for the coming 20 years or more) to be all over the place and way less reliable than attempting to use BTC price bottoms (such as the 200-week moving average) in order to attempt to get some kind of bearing upon where we are at and where we are likely going....

.. which to me seems to be a kind of tension between an investor and trader way of thinking about bitcoin holdings.

Sure if the DCA person does not have any lump sum that is available, then he is looking at his discretionary/disposable income and deciding how much he is able to invest based on those kinds of limitations, so he can be as aggressive as he is able to be, but yes, he is limited by his discretionary/disposable income.. which is the difference between his income and his expenses.... but within that he could choose to invest 100% of his disposable/discretionary income, and that might be aggressive.. .. and surely if anyone is investing 100% of his discretionary/disposable income, he is going to need to have some variations of emergency fund, float and/or reserves in place.. even if non of that is authorized to be allocated (or invested) into bitcoin.

It again comes down to understanding the market. Whether you are going for DCA or Lump Sum one need to understand that he is investing for long duration and it may take some time before his investment will be in profit. There is possibility that we start investing and price start going up but this may not be the case every time.

I don't have any problems with that kind of an assessment, even though if we are attempting to look at this realistically, there can be justification of several BTC accumulation techniques (referring to DCA, lump sum and buying on dips) being carried out simultaneously and being reassessed from time to time - since surely guys are going to want to maximize their ability to catch dips if they can, yet at the same time, at any given time, it may or may not be practical to be waiting for dips. 

So if a guy is just starting out, then yeah he has a certain amount of value that he might be considering for his initial investment and he might spread that over 6 months... but then once he has already made his investment, then he merely has whatever income (cashflow) is coming to him on a regular basis which might be paid weekly or monthly or some other period, and he will be deciding as it comes in whether and/or how much to allocate to bitcoin, the same would come to be the case if he got some kind of lump sum extra come in such as a bonus, or some discovery of some value that he had available or maybe he sold some property (or asset), as then at the point that the extra cash comes available he can decide which of the three categories and how much he wants to allocate.. which is lump sum, DCA, buying on dips.. ..

Sometimes the categories can overlap, because even if he gets some kind of extra bonus or something like that, and if he always buys right away when he gets the money (or within a couple of weeks), then he may well be employing DCA, even though he has lump sum amounts, and if he is waiting for the price to go down to certain price points he is employing buying on dips (even if he might be delaying of spending a lump sum that he has), so what we call it may well depend upon how we structure it... and the extent to which we try to strategize the taking advantage of dips, and so some of the disagreement and quibbling may well have to do with getting caught on semantics rather than attempting to figure out context in order to explain what you are doing and whether you might attempt to employ a variety of strategies or stick with some strict ways of investing that may well be less flexible, but sometimes it can be important to follow some strict ways of investing rather than trying to overly strategize, especially when it comes to bitcoin.. and many times guys getting worked up about getting BTC at the lowest price that they can, but then at the same time they might end up being inadequately prepared for up.

[edited out]

That's why we are here trading bitcoin and not gold since we find it more bullish than gold in terms of profit gaining in some time span since gold takes a long time before we can feel that we are on profit.

Some of us are investing and not trading in bitcoin, even though I get your point about both bitcoin's volatility to the upside and also bitcoin's volatility in general likely makes it better for trading, but I consider it a bit less preferable to trade bitcoin, since bitcoin is amongst the best, if not the best asset known to mankind.. so why should anyone be trading such a pristine asset rather than holding it, unless merely trading with a relatively small portion of his holdings.

Compare to bitcoin that anything is possible especially if there's a huge news that can hype the market and help to build up the demand.

yes... there is a stair-stepping dynamic in bitcoin, and from time to time it unexpectedly stair-steps up a bit, and never comes back down, which largely means that you should be in the investment at the time rather than fucking around and not being in the investment, which is also part of the additional justification to invest rather than trade bitcoin.

4 year cycle might really best especially that halving season will occur and that's good timeline for anyone to sell their bitcoins if they want to cashout their profits for deciding to hold on that timeline.

Why would anyone want to sell the best asset known to man? 

Sure sell a bit of it, but mostly hold seem to be the best idea, except maybe if someone has already reached a high over accumulation of BTC then they might just be regularly selling as the BTC price goes up because they already have too many BTC.

But if you are selling in order to accumulate more, that seems dumb (or at least short-sighted).

Also whatever price they decide to buy I think its still fine as long as they can afford it and there's still huge potential for bitcoin to rise up especially if the demand still strong in future.

But are we trading or are we holding?  I can see from either perspective, even though surely I appreciate the longer term ways of thinking about bitcoin.

Maybe to flesh it out a bit.  Buying at whatever price is fine when someone has a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, but it also could be fine for someone who is valuing their purchase of bitcoin in terms of dollar profits that they can get and they buy and then they just sell at some point that the BTC price is higher or that the BTC price more or less reaches some kind of short-term (short-sighted) dollar price that they are seeking to achieve.

[Outhue]

This map is screaming out the importance of the Bitcoin four years cycle, and it only favours those who understands, this was how I found peace with Bitcoin investment, if you can respect the four years cycle you will be a long term winner.

Although, I choose to remain a realist, Bitcoin can't pump like it used to do in the past year when it was earlier and cheap, now do not let your too much price expectations take the best of you, be ready to start taking some profits after having going into the year 2025.

To some people, Bitcoin is the best-known asset to humans and they are willing to sit and even sleep on their bags, they have the conviction for long term, this is also my goal but it won't stop me from taking profits and buying back the dips in 2026, like I've said before, all it takes is understanding the four year cycle.

[Churchillvv]

This map is screaming out the importance of the Bitcoin four years cycle, and it only favours those who understands, this was how I found peace with Bitcoin investment, if you can respect the four years cycle you will be a long term winner.

For sure the map shows the role which the four years cycle plays in Bitcoin but I disagree with the bolded statement because most people do not really understand the four years cycle of Bitcoin but it's really favouring them through the help of DCA. For instance I never knew of the for years cycle of Bitcoin but I know about the volatility of Bitcoin so after reading some threads like buy the dip and hodl I quickly adapt to DCA strategy of accumulation without understanding the Bitcoin cycle and I have been accumulating Bitcoin for some time now and I'm get favour from it because it's convenient enough to allow me take good care of other bills.

What I'm saying in essence is you do not necessarily need to understand the four years cycle of Bitcoin before you get favoured from it. as long as your practicing a favourable strategy you can also be a long term winner without understanding the four years cycle of Bitcoin.

Although, I choose to remain a realist, Bitcoin can't pump like it used to do in the past year when it was earlier and cheap, now do not let your too much price expectations take the best of you, be ready to start taking some profits after having going into the year 2025.

I don't know any thing about how much Bitcoin will do this time, so I will only follow some few guides in this forum for sustainable Bitcoin withdrawal strategy in order not mess my targets up.

To some people, Bitcoin is the best-known asset to humans and they are willing to sit and even sleep on their bags, they have the conviction for long term, this is also my goal but it won't stop me from taking profits and buying back the dips in 2026, like I've said before, all it takes is understanding the four year cycle.

You know, the first line of your sentence seems to be a criticism but I will skip that. the sad truth is nobody makes decisions for anybody so it's in your court to play your ball but I will not be a party to regrets. although its good to enjoy your profit I mean what's the need to invest if you won't make use of the profit and like someone once told me life is too short to be unhappy so make your self happy. but even before investing you should know that what you're investing is an amount that you can do without for a long time so if this has been put into consideration then you wouldn't be think of touching your investment at any point soon.

Note; don't mind my English only take the message.

[Obim34]

(...)
Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

You have a point here, but you must consider those days about "easily rewarded about x10, x1000,x2000". Those days are high risk, no one knows what will be the future, so for me, it's high-risk high reward happened before and all who experienced, them deserve it.
For now, we must appreciate what we have now, especially in Bitcoin, x2,x3,x5 is enough already if you really looking for investment.

It was when I started using the DCA method I started appreciating the significance of getting x2 or thereabout in my investment. Coming from the background of hoping for x100 amidst several pain of loses and falling victim of scam, I have come to realize that it is truly a matter of amplified risk to see x100 in ones investment. This much needed understanding was necessary for the calmness I'm enjoying, investing in Bitcoin with my expectations being reasonable and achievable.

Bitcoin may not give x100 now or in the near future but it still have a huge potential for growth. To me I have double advantage investing in Bitcoin which is the fact that Bitcoin is appreciating against the dollar while dollar is appreciating against my local currency as inflation is now at 29% in my country. So it is a rare privilege to be invested in Bitcoin and also building my wealth already.

Firstly as a newbie in Bitcoin, some of us where first talked on how Bitcoin will overnight makes a person wealthy by making 100x of one's investment untill I began doing more research and perherps get to join this forum then understood how the system works now. The most interesting facts about Bitcoin is the entrustment of one's funds without a doubt of it falling out and with time the investment makes profits from the holdings.

[MusaPk]

I don't have any problems with that kind of an assessment, even though if we are attempting to look at this realistically, there can be justification of several BTC accumulation techniques (referring to DCA, lump sum and buying on dips) being carried out simultaneously and being reassessed from time to time - since surely guys are going to want to maximize their ability to catch dips if they can, yet at the same time, at any given time, it may or may not be practical to be waiting for dips.

 

When I was new to Bitcoin I used Lump Sum technique. But with time I came to know that DCA is another way and when I tried I came to know about its benefits. I think it take time before people understand DCA and Lump Sum.
The only problem with dips is that we are not sure when they are occuring. Figuring out the dips is most crucial part if you are investing in "buying on dips".

but sometimes it can be important to follow some strict ways of investing rather than trying to overly strategize, especially when it comes to bitcoin.. and many times guys getting worked up about getting BTC at the lowest price that they can, but then at the same time they might end up being inadequately prepared for up.

I agree that being strict is more easy because you have to follow one straight path and you don't need to look for DIPs or any other variation in price. If you are following one strategy then you need to have faith in that strategy that it will suit you. Like if you are following DCA then you need to be sure that this will benefit you in the long run.
All this will be clear with time as you invest not only your money but your time and mind in Bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't have any problems with that kind of an assessment, even though if we are attempting to look at this realistically, there can be justification of several BTC accumulation techniques (referring to DCA, lump sum and buying on dips) being carried out simultaneously and being reassessed from time to time - since surely guys are going to want to maximize their ability to catch dips if they can, yet at the same time, at any given time, it may or may not be practical to be waiting for dips.

 
When I was new to Bitcoin I used Lump Sum technique. But with time I came to know that DCA is another way and when I tried I came to know about its benefits. I think it take time before people understand DCA and Lump Sum.
The only problem with dips is that we are not sure when they are occuring. Figuring out the dips is most crucial part if you are investing in "buying on dips".

There are ways to attempt to invest somewhat blindly in dip-buying too, which would be that you set ladder buy orders.  I had already given such an example, but maybe I can try again.

Let's say that you are brand new to bitcoin, and over the past 10 years, you have built up about a $50k investment portfolio in various other investments, and so your annual income is about $40k per year.. and so you have right around 120% of a year's worth of income in your investment portfolio. Let's say that you also have right around $3.4k saved up in cash that you can invest into bitcoin (or anything else if you wanted to, but you have already decided upon bitcoin), and you make enough that you can invest $100 per week ($2,600) over the next 6 months.

So if your total investment allocation for bitcoin is $6k for the next 6 months, but you ONLY have $3,400 in cash right now, you could decide to invest half ($1.7k) of your available cash as a lump sum and the other half ($1.7k) to save for buying on dips, and so you can set those buying on dips however, you like with a possible expectation that you are not going to use up all of the $1,700 in the next 6 months... .but if you are considering that the current 200-week moving average of $30,750 is at or around the bottom, then you might want to structure your buys around that.  So for example, if you made your initial lump sum buy of $1,700 at $43k, then maybe you could structure your buys down from $41k to $30k.. which would be 11 buy orders ($155 each) if they were every $1k, and that would be right around 17 buy orders ($100 each) if you structured them every $750. and so you can set up your buy order increments and your amounts however you like in order to dedicate the remainder of your cash for buying on dips.

So right now, you might not know if after 6 months you would have had invested all of your $6k into BTC which currently would be right around 11% of your total investment portfolio (that is $56k =( $50k + $6K))... and maybe if you had not reached such a target, then you continue to invest $100 per week into bitcoin until you reach whatever might be your target. and you can move around your buying on dip amount if you want, and including other kinds of flexible ways to continue to maintain some buy orders that are dedicated to buying on dips while at the same time having had exercised lump sum and also incorporated buying on dips... so you are doing all three, even if you are a newbie to BTC investing.. but you are engaging in planning and also perhaps creating goals in terms of how much of a BTC allocation you would like to target, and of course, if you continue to learn about bitcoin as you go you can also reassess your plan as you go, so even though you have an initial plan for 6 months, you could extend it or you could add new terms to it based upon your learning along the way and maybe even some various things going on with your own finances and/or psychology (or even your assessment and reassessment of your 9 factors).

but sometimes it can be important to follow some strict ways of investing rather than trying to overly strategize, especially when it comes to bitcoin.. and many times guys getting worked up about getting BTC at the lowest price that they can, but then at the same time they might end up being inadequately prepared for up.

I agree that being strict is more easy because you have to follow one straight path and you don't need to look for DIPs or any other variation in price. If you are following one strategy then you need to have faith in that strategy that it will suit you. Like if you are following DCA then you need to be sure that this will benefit you in the long run.
All this will be clear with time as you invest not only your money but your time and mind in Bitcoin.

You are likely never going to be 100% sure.  You can invest, and surely the more that your portfolio goes into profits and the more cushion that you might have, then you might start to build greater and greater confidence that you are on the right path and you are doing the right thing.  Even though you never were investing in  the dark, you were always investing based on probabilities and some level of confidence that bitcoin is an asymmetric bet that is worth considering some kind of a reasonable allocation, whether that is in the ballpark of somewhere between 5% and 25% or if you choose some other allocation level based on your own assessment of your circumstances.

[Moreno233]

To some people, Bitcoin is the best-known asset to humans and they are willing to sit and even sleep on their bags, they have the conviction for long term, this is also my goal but it won't stop me from taking profits and buying back the dips in 2026, like I've said before, all it takes is understanding the four year cycle.

Being able to buy back after taking profits is the major challenge some people face especially those who are following the  four years cycle. Lets put it to perspective. I remember many people who rode the wave of 2021 bull run and made so much money liquidating their Bitcoin which they bought at very cheap prices. As of today, most of them do not have any Bitcoin to their name. Some that because millionaires are were fondly celebrated as Bitcoin millionaires then are not holding Bitcoin today instead some bought shitcoins because they want to make x1000. I equally know some of them that started their own crypto project with part of the money they made from selling their Bitcoin in 2021; they did this hoping to cash out big amount and also answering founders. There are so many stories about people who sold during the bull run of 2021 but the summary is that a lot of them are no longer holding Bitcoin where some also have lavished the money in frivolities.

I don't know those who became richer in Bitcoin following the four years cycle of Bitcoin. Unless they are keeping it top secret which is also possible. Personally, I do not feel I can effectively follow the market cycle to avoid making a mistake.