Bitcoin Forum

If you are a Bitcoin investor, and read news on social media or in Bitcointalk forum, I am sure you already know about the term 'HODL'.

What is this and what does it mean?

I always recommend newbies to Search before posting and if they practice it, they will find some resources about HODL term.

• [Guide] Searching effectively (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5276341.0)

They can find results in this forum or on other sites like Coinmarketcap.

• I AM HODLING (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0) is where this term was born, by @GameKyuubi, in Bitcointalk forum.
• Understanding HODL (Coinmarketcap) (https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/hodl)

Above is for the first question.

The second question, for Bitcoin investors, can be explained with the following chart.

• https://hodl.camp/
• Click on some icons at the top right corner to customize color of the chart.
• As of writing, the HODL line is 5 year and 1 month. This line changes with Bitcoin prices and with time, stay updated by using the chart.

I quote the guide from HOLD camp.

Now, let's see the chart with default settings.


You can click on the Eye icon to change color settings. Below are some of color settings and how it looks. Choose one color setting you like to use.

When you hover mouse on the HODL map chart, you will see Entry date, Entry price, Exit date, Exit price and Profit/ Loss. This feature is a quick tool to check profit, loss with an assumption that you buy bitcoin at a past year, hodl it like 1, 2, 4 years and how it turns out to be Profit or Loss for you.

If you don't like this HODL map, you can use alternatives like

• https://dcabtc.com/
• https://costavg.com/

You can also add this site to DCA list of websites.

• https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

Results from dcacryptocalculator (https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin) and costavg (https://costavg.com/) converge and give more detail of DCA then dcabtc (https://dcabtc.com/). For instance if you want to calculate DCA results of investing 100 dollars into Bitcoin every week for last 3 years or from Dec 25, 2020 to Dec 25, 2023 then dcacryptocalculator (https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin) shows that you have ROI of +44.10% and costavg (https://costavg.com/) shows that you have ROI of +42% while dcabtc (https://dcabtc.com/) says you have a loss of 20%.

It's good to use these websites to have a quick overview but if you are accumlatng Bitcoin in DCA manner then always do calculations from your own pen and paper.

Or maybe everyone should look at this list: (https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html)

And see where your current HODLing at and maybe you can project yourself where you want to be in that chart. So you can build your strong hands thru DCA and then in conjunction with this site, align yourself so best of luck.  :)

Thank you. I know there are many websites for Dollar Cost Averaging but I did not intend to list all of them here but anyway, I am thankful for the information.

I did not notice it because basically they are only tools to look backwards and only can be used to imagine what you can get if you apply DCA and with another assumption that Bitcoin will not change historic habit.

If you actually invest in Bitcoin, you will need to use some sites for Portfolio Trackers like

• Coingecko
  
  • Free & Powerful Crypto Portfolio Tracker (https://www.coingecko.com/en/portfolio)
  • Be Smart and Manage Your Crypto Portfolio With Trading Tools (https://www.coingecko.com/learn/be-smart-and-manage-your-crypto-portfolio-with-trading-tools)
• Coinmarketcap
  
  • Portfolio Tracker (https://coinmarketcap.com/portfolio-tracker/)
  • How to use the Coinmarkecap Portfolio Tracker? (https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/how-to-use-the-coinmarketcap-portfolio)
• If you want open source?
  
  • Portfolio Performance [Open Source] - Keep track of your Crypto Portfolio! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5381647.0)

I agree.

DCA saves time and headache but more important, it is more effectively than trading and other investment methods if you take your health benefit into consideration.

• JJG has his thread on this investment strategy. JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.0)

I just want to add to what you have already said, holding sometimes can be challenging due to so many factors, but as an investors as we are, we need to look for a way to navigate our way in the crypto space for us to be successful.
I suggest we take a look at this thread I created about holding https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5477689.msg63316374#msg63316374

HODL has become inherent among investors, for HODL is the power to keep adding to bitcoin holdings.

I still find it difficult to understand the graph here https://hodl.camp I am more another DCA calculation calculator as mentioned above, even so, I always record every bitcoin purchase on Coinmarketcap so that I know the average price purchased and the ROI I get now, so this is not too much of a headache for me. ;D

Yeah it's better to not get into all this technical staffs unless you really want to learn it. HODL should be simple. Just keep on accumulating and forget about them unless you have an emergency and you need the money at once. Don't ever check Bitcoin price on a regular basis. That creates a FOMO and people usually fall for it.

Bitcoin is like bluechip stocks. The longer it stays in your account, the better return it gives. You can use any simple portfolio apps simi6to the CMC one. Keep it simple!;

One of the best means to make a profitable Investment with bitcoin is when we decided to hodl the coin for some time, this is not because we are not interested about using it to serve for its purpose as a digital currency we use for making payments or as a means of exchange, but we wanted to hodl all because we also have the opportunity of using bitcoin as an asset we could Invest on hodl for a particular time to yield profits instead of turning a liability provided we have the tenacity for doing that.

Hodli is very simple and needs less skill, which makes it the best way to increase your bitcoin hodling. As long as you know how to save money in a bank, which is a practice that many of us have tried in different times in our lives. Id you see that the money is very important to achieve something good, you will save it so that you can achieve your goal. This is the same thing with bitcoin, the money that you are saving in the bank, just use to to buy bitcoin and keep piling them up in your self custody wallet until you have reached your bitcoin target. It is good to have a bitcoin target as this will give you a better chance to increase your bitcoin portfolio and also be patient with hodli.

The HODL camp map may be a non-illustrative map or we are not used to seeing it, so it is difficult to read, but its philosophy is simple, which is that profit is achieved within more than 4 years. Losses occur if you decide to buy after 6 months of halving with the intention of selling in the short term, so it is a representation in a way Or another for the 4-year bitcoin cycles.

Thanks for the information, this is the first time I know that there is an application for this word as charts.

Hmm, OP interesting Topic
Just as Hodl words are easily discovered, so it gives profit easily. Well, as you rightly said, Hodl can give you profit easily, like your name, i.e., words. Invest in BTC for long-term investment and enjoy life by earning a profit. By the way, HODL is a unique strategy that can give you a profit. However, even if you don't know much about cryptocurrency and know some basics, HODL can organize your profit. Just simply buy the Dip and HODL will give you a profit in return.
 
Anywhere when I hear about HODL, I am delighted because, from the beginning till now, I have made the most profit in HODL, i.e. Bored in Buy the Dip and HODL. I had also made a profit by diversifying his portfolio under DCA for HODL. So I was a little excited after hearing about HODL. Everyone else has their own choice; some prefer holding, some prefer trading.

You are doing good practice but if any newbie is still curious and wondering that DCA is good or bad for their investment, they can create an account on Coinmarketcap and do regular DCA with their demo account. They will see DCA effects that are good for investment in long term but they will miss some time and chances to do it with demo DCA.

Perhaps you did not mean it, your account, I hope it means your non custodial wallet, not exchange account.

• Reminder: do not keep your money in online accounts (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5421039.0)

Bitcoin market cycle is about 4 years but the map shows us an interesting fact, if hodlers can hold their bitcoins more than 5 years, they surely get profit so far.

Because each hodler can have different entry and exit time and consequent prices so they can enter at very high price, stuck there and if they only hold their bitcoin like 4 years, they might have loss, even it is very small chance to fall into that minor cases.

If they can think bigger than only one market cycle, longer than only 4 years, they will have a safer investment strategy and also get better opportunities to gain profit.

• Bitcoin Profitable Days (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-profitable-days/)
• % profitable days holding Bitcoin: 94.1%

I just have a small working on DCA vs LUM SUM Profit.

DCA:
If you invest 100 dollars per week into bitcoin starting from Dec 27, 2019 to Dec 27, 2023. Then your total investment is 20900$ in Bitcoin and ROI after 4 years will be +119% or your total investment goes up to 24870$

LUM SUM investment and HODL:
If you invest total 20900$ in Bitcoin on Dec 27, 2019 and HODL for 4 years then today your ROI will be +505% or investment goes up to 105690$.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/26/IJjlH.png
https://dcacryptocalculator.com/

Likewise if you go to https://dcacryptocalculator.com/ and play with figures then you will notice that Lum sum investment also gives good result if you are willing to HODL for longer duration.

Personally, I do not get very excited about any kinds of demo or practice accounts, except maybe if somehow you are prohibited from using real money.. but then you better figure out some way to use real money in order to make any kind of experience more real..

So personally I believe that it is better to practice with real money, and sure maybe you have some trouble getting to the minimum order size and sometimes if you are real poor then the fees might end up being higher because there might be various fees such as flat fees and percentages that end up causing the transaction to cost higher, so there frequently will be desires, especially for more financially challenged folks to find ways to save on fees and other transaction costs.


Over the past year, and maybe even the last 3 months we have seen that there might be practicality to accumulate BTC on an exchange prior to creating a UTXO, especially for poor people.

I also do believe it is best to try to minimize your exchange exposure, but you also need to look out for your own best interest in terms of balancing how much to leave on exchanges versus various current or future potential transaction costs that might come through creating a bunch of small UTXOs.

Theymos may well be a bit off in his recommendation, especially when applied to some smaller accounts.


There is no guarantee to get a profit, even if the chart shows historically what the profit levels have been.


Actually that is what I specifically like about the chart.  It does not really tell us about our own holdings, especially if we have a whole hell of a lot of transactions, but it tells us about the level of profits of any transactions on any particular day, to the extent that we are able to narrow in on a particular day.

If we have a bunch of transactions and various dates and various transaction amounts, we may well need to use a different tool to figure out our average portfolio costs.

Even though I really like the tool, there is some aspect of non-reality (or maybe bad recommendation) in terms some folks who might buy BTC and then just sit on their investment or if they fantasize about buying on one day or another and then what would have had happened.  That is kind of a trader and gambling mindset, and one of the smartest things is to actively manage your holdings by continuing to buy, whether that is lump summing, buying on dips and/or DCAing... and for sure if you lump sum at a certain point and then the BTC price goes down rather than up, it may well be a good idea to have some money left over to either be able to buy on the dip or to DCA.

On the other hand, if you buy and the BTC price mostly just goes up from the point of your purchase, then maybe you just sit on your investment for as long as you believe is necessary until you cash out.. in the event that you don't create some longer term BTC portfolio plans that might involve cashing out incrementally rather than concluding that you are justified to cash out a bunch at one time, even if you conclude it to be sufficiently profitable for your own likings.


For sure there is compounding effect that comes from holding over more than one cycle, and sure it is possible that a person gets so much compounding effect merely in one cycle that he cannot resist except to sell, so that is understandable, yet in bitcoin there has been greater and greater compounding effects to hold longer and longer, rather than cashing out, yet of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, even if we should not conclude that bitcoin's investment thesis has gotten weaker (rather than stronger) over the past cycle or two... Bitcoin surely does seem to possess some Lindy effect qualities in which the longer it is in existence the stronger it seems to get.. or at least the more we might be able to conclude that it is is going to continue to exist, even if the returns might not be as great (in terms of percentages) as they were in the past, but part of any investment is not ONLY considering upside potential but also getting some value in the solidification that lesses downside potential... while still not guaranteeing any of these price performance matters in either direction.


You have to also presume some abilities to lump sum, which may well not be options, and I already largely responded to those ideas in this post. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg63542648#msg63542648)

I just revisited my calculations and went through your post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg63542648#msg63542648) and concluded you are right about Lump Sum.

• If somebody had Lump Sum invested 20k$ on Nov 8, 2021 when price of Bitcoin was ATH of 67k$ then he defiantly will be in loss at the moment. Even after 2 years of that Lump Sum investment.
• Even if you back to Dec 2019 when price of Bitcoin went high to 19k$ then investing 20k$ at that time would be hard to recover.

Case of DCA will be different and will produce positive results if calculated over a period of longer duration.
Just like we can't compare Apple with Oranges, so better not compare DCA with Lump Sum.

I don't have any problems comparing them, but yeah, they are different categories of things and each of them can work well under certain kinds of circumstances, and surely a person who has a lump sum available has options regarding how to consider investing, whether that is lump sum all of it or to perhaps lump sum part and maybe even DCA other parts and buy on dips with other parts.

A person who does not have a lump sum available has to just deal with cash as it comes in, and in some cases, there are folks who do not have good habits of saving and/or investing and maybe they don't even really know how to do it, so DCA would likely be better for them because they can just choose an amount to invest over whatever period of time that is based on how much disposable income that they have, and if they were to save it in cash and then invest it later, then that may or may not be practical, but it could end up being a form of lump sum that is buying on dip if they really think that there might be utility in terms of waiting when they get into BTC.. which it is never really clear when those periods of long and deep correction are going to happen and at the same time, even if they happened in a certain pattern in the past, it is not even close to assured that such long and deep corrections are going to happen in similar ways in the future... even though bitcoin's ongoing volatility is likely inevitable, we just can never really be sure of the direction (especially in the short-to-medium term, even if even if we can develop theories and even probabilities). 

Definitely no guarantee of profit especially if you didn't hodl or buy any bitcoin before the price of bitcoin reached an all time high besides not investing though I don't see how it doesn't guarantee a bitcoin hodler any profit when the chart is consistent that at this X period is the time where the price likely to hit it's all time high or something.

If you don't include buying back after cashing out then hodling until the desired price shows is going to be the most sufficient of them all and if you don't sell at an increment then wouldn't it mean that you're getting more profit compared to someone that's profiting albeit in small amounts because they sell a small part?

Don't get me wrong.  I am surely for the idea of ongoing investing into bitcoin and long term holding, yet you are not going to get me to agree that there is any guarantee that your BTC will be profitable, even though historically all coins held at least 5 years have ended up being profitable.

I also recognize and appreciate the asymmetric nature of bitcoin, in that there are a lot of folks who have accumulated bitcoin for years, and of course there are a lot of folks who have been holding bitcoin for many years and have gone through many doublings of their coin value which has a certain kind of compounding and/or exponential effect on those kinds of BTC holders, so many times we are thinking small potatoes if we  are merely considering whether some day coins might be profitable in stead of the longer that people have been holding their coins the more likely that they are going experience many doublings and ongoing compounding effects..  while at the same time there are no guarantees.

I personally started out in bitcoin when prices were around $1,100 to $1,200 in late 2013, so I frequently considered my BTC holdings in terms of the average cost per BTC, and I likely brought my average cost per BTC down to quite a bit below $500 per BTC by the time late 2016 had come, but at the same time I made some mistakes along the way including having some sim-swap problem, so I frequently like to just proclaim that my coins have around a $1k per coin average cost, even though there coudl be other ways that I could frame the matter or even taking some coins and grouping them with other coins that were bought around the same time and various kinds of subdividing of my BTC stash; however, I am not even sure how useful that is, even if the the tax man frequently forces us to jump through those kinds of accounting hoops.

In any event, many of us who have been a long time in bitcoin have also experienced upside and compoundings (and exponential growth) of the value of our BTC holdings, but you are still not going to get me to suggest that any particular coin that is bought now, in the future or even past coins are guaranteed to be in profits in the future or even including that past coins that are currently in profits are going to continue to be in profits, even if there is a whole hell of a lot of cushion between current price and the cost basis. 

On the other hand, I do have a lot of reliance in the 200-week moving average, even with my own calculation of personal strategies and even attempt to provide frameworks for how to think about the value or our BTC stashes (looking at my ideas behind sustainable withdrawal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213918#msg63213918)).. and so in that regard, the 200-week moving average has always gone up, and its worst performance period was between about June 2022 and November 2023, even though it still went up 20% on an annualized basis during that time (as you can see from my entry-level fuck you status chart).  Another thing is that the 200-week moving average is not guaranteed to continue to go up even though right now it is going up around $25 per day and likely to on track to having at least a 30% annualized performance for our current six month period between December and May.. 

So even though I consider BTC going up as not guaranteed, I still consider that any of who have stacked enough BTC could likely employ BTC stack management practices that allow us to have good chances of being able to withdraw BTC at higher rates than we would be able to sustainably withdraw in traditional investments, so I largely use 6-10% as sustainable withdrawal, even though I throttle those values if the BTC spot price start to get to become less than 25% higher than the 200-week moving average... so surely I consider there to be a lot of power and value in terms of building a BTC stack, but you are still not going to get me to claim that there are guarantees of UPpity BTC price moves, even if the 200-week moving average (which is a lagging indicator) has never (so far in BTC's price history) gone lower than 20% annualized.

When we hold Bitcoin in real life, we see that it has both advantages and disadvantages. If we look closely, owning Bitcoin for a long time can provide possible rewards.

One of these advantages is that it provides high profits and inflation protection, but it also involves large risks due to volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and security issues. Before making any investing decisions, think about your risk tolerance, financial objectives, and understanding of the bitcoin market.

https://i.ibb.co/HPW5Xz5/Benefits-of-bitcoin.png (https://imgbb.com/)

Referrence:

https://www.creditkarma.com/investments/i/pros-and-cons-of-bitcoin
https://www.cointree.com/learn/pros-and-cons-of-bitcoin/

Volatility is only a big concern if you plan to hold bitcoin in short term. If you hold it long term, like about 5 years, volatility is not your concern because price is strongly upward.

ROI chart shows this fact https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart
Choose different time frame like 1 year, Year to date, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years and see different ROIs. With 5-year ROI chart, I am sure you will see no concern with Bitcoin volatility in short term.

If you are going to invest in Lump Sum manner then price is very important at which you are investing your whole money. Like as I already said, investing 20k$ when price of Bitcoin is 67k$ will lock your investment for indefinite period of time while investing same amount when price of Bitcoin is 20k$ is better option. You are right in saying that we don't know exactly when its bottom or just the start of dip. So one has to do that risk analysis if he is trying to invest in Lump sum manner.
While in case of DCA there is less risk involved compared to Lump sum. In DCA, all you need is to accumulate Bitcoin slowly and based on historic data DCA for 4 to 5 years has been a profitable strategy.

Interesting historical comparative charts on that casebitcoin.com website.


I don't think about it like that, because I don't believe in any waiting around when it comes to trying to figure out when to get into bitcoin, so to me it does not matter what the price is, there is a need to get in and to get off zero as soon as possible.  There is no way to prepare for UP, unless you have some bitcoin.

So then the question merely becomes how to get started, and is there any desire (and/or ability to front load with a bit of a lump sum, and if so then perhaps some value should be thrown in as a lump sum right away).. then the other part would be figuring out what to do after making the initial investment, but if you have at least made an initial investment then you have some level of preparedness for UP, and so then you would therefore be in a better position to wait for down if you had already bought some.. and waiting for down can be buying on dips and/or DCA.   

So then at that point, it might matter what is your budget and what are your goals and if you lump sum with total your goal, then you still might need to consider buying on dips and DCA just to buttress your investment in case price goes down rather than up, but if you have invested less than your goal then maybe you already built in the ability to DCA and buy on dips. so of course DCA is a kind of time-released way of investing and buying on dips is price based.


It would have had been stupid to invest $20k at $67k if that was all the money that you had for the next 6 months, but it would not be stupid to invest $20k at $67k if you had some DCA amount of maybe $1k or $2k per month that you could buy or some other funds that you could buy on dips... I am not going to proclaim the whole ratio, but anyone could have looked at the charts and saw that $67k was on an upward trajectory, even if many folks were expecting higher prices such as supra $100k or even higher, and I even had my own charts that had supra $1.5 million within them (yeah only less than a 0.5% chance, but it was still listed as a possibility) (see this post of mine from December 2021 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593)).. but still I don't have a lot of sympathy when folks play only one direction, and especially if they were to invest $20k at $67k and then sit on their investment for the next 2 years without investing more.. since surely anyone could have continued to invest and maybe over 2 years, they could have had invested another $20k

So let's do the math.

Initial purchase of $20k at $66,667 = 0.3 BTC.   and then to DCA $200 per week from December 1, 2021 until now would have resulted in $22.8k invested and 0.9374 BTC (https://dcabtc.com?sd=2021-12-01&sda=custom&f=weekly&d=3_years&ac=20000&c=true).  So that would mean a total of 1.2374 BTC (currently valued at $53,208) and $42,800 invested.  So that would not be a bad place to be, and part of my point is that if someone is wiling to put $20k at the then top of the BTC price, they better also be prepared to continue to invest, otherwise they were gambling and not investing and I have little sympathy for folks with that level of lack of preparedness and/or overinvesting in those kinds of ways.

So even if a person took a strong front loading stance, even at the top of the market, they likely are still able to figure out a way to have some kind of follow through rather than merely whining that their initial investment was still not in profits.

My own way to frame this kind of investment would be to divide the 6 month budget into 3 parts and then to  invest 1/3 into each of the three parts (which is lump sum, DCA and buying on dips), so if the total budget was $20k then that would be $6,667 into each of the three parts.  But if the person had $20k in pocket and then an income of that might allow for $300 per week for the next 6 months, so then maybe the whole budget for 6 months might be considered to be considered as $27,800 (which would be 26 x $300).. so then if that is divided into 3 then each of the three parts would be $9,2667, and so after the end of the 6 months there might be a reassessment regarding what to do in regards to continuing with DCA and/or if there might be any more buying on dips and/or lump sums.   

I am not suggesting that I know the answer, but those should be the kinds of consideration for anyone who is investing into something like bitcoin and coming into the investment when the price is seeming to be in an upward direction, and so part of my point is that there is no need to wait, but still at the same time there are needs to have abilities to follow through and to commit especially if anyone is thinking that he has $20k that he can lump sum invest into BTC when the prices were at $67k. 

If you know anyone who did that and has been sitting on their hands for the last 2-ish years, I would say that they surely were lacking in their abilities and their foresight and their making a reasonable investment plan that would have likely ended up being way more profitable than the way that they came at the situation.


I have nothing wrong with lump sum, and I think it is a very good plan; however, if the price moves against you, you are going to be fucked if you don't have conviction to keep investing, and if you come to an investment such as bitcoin without any more conviction than to throw $20k at it at $67k , then you deserve what you got.


I would not really say that we do DCA because there is less risk, even though there is some truth that it likely takes more capital to justify anyone who might do a lump sum should be ready, willing and able to justify why he is doing it that way, and I am just not sure why such a person would not be ready, willing and able to follow up if he invested $20k at $67k.. and sure maybe your example is not that great, but people use these kinds of examples all the time, to describe the poor schmuck who lump sum invested at the top, and again, I have no sympathy for such smucks or for such whining stories... especially since we can look at BTC charts and see that it has been the best investment for 13 years, so why would not anyone coming into bitcoin at least do a wee bit of looking at price history in order to temper his "investment" approach?


Sure if the DCA person does not have any lump sum that is available, then he is looking at his discretionary/disposable income and deciding how much he is able to invest based on those kinds of limitations, so he can be as aggressive as he is able to be, but yes, he is limited by his discretionary/disposable income.. which is the difference between his income and his expenses.... but within that he could choose to invest 100% of his disposable/discretionary income, and that might be aggressive.. .. and surely if anyone is investing 100% of his discretionary/disposable income, he is going to need to have some variations of emergency fund, float and/or reserves in place.. even if non of that is authorized to be allocated (or invested) into bitcoin.

DCA is the best option in bitcoin accumulation on weekly still stand out to be the best option in investing on bitcoin compeard to other form of investment. Expecially when it's don continuously for over a period of time.  I was afraid of accumulating bitcoin due to it high transaction fee but I was able to use my campaign bitcoin to use as my accumulated Bitcoin an now it serves as my DCA without stress now when people talk about DCA it sound like campaign to me. So now I am beginning to love this DCA at first it is always difficult but finally I have started accumulation. Because talking without investment is like a waste of time but decided to take it to another level this year and see what the result might be by the year ending.

Don't forget to also find ways to increase the bitcoin that you're currently hodling because you will never know how you'll fair if you just depend on the current amount until the ATH is reached, make sure that you're actively doing other things that can make you money like finding a steady job that will generate you a paycheck and if you got that already then a side hustle that will not be a problem for your main job or would take a lot of energy and time to do. Don't just hodl, be an active participant to the market movement, contribute by trading or just doing DCA to slowly accumulate what you're currently hodling and always remember that those with diamond hands are going to be the one that will enjoy the most profits.

Speaking of hodling, if I may emphasize, especially to those who are still thinking twice until now, time isn't on our side, folks. I may sound as if I'm inciting FOMO, but that's the reality. The train will leave at some point. To those who are putting off buying every time, you might indeed miss out the opportunity. Yeah, we can buy anytime. Yeah, we can buy small portions. But hodling is nothing else but about price appreciation.

Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

This map is a great visual, its nice to be able to scroll all the way down to see the full history and prices of Bitcoin. Those DCA calculators are great as well, these can always be helpful with visualization of your BTC stacking goals. All of these great tools, I would like to add something kind of fun to this mix is this one: https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/

(Just copied from Clark Moody:

All-Time High Price
$69,010
Decline from ATH
-37.80%
ATH Date
November 10, 2021
Days Since ATH
815

Just seeing it there looking at you brings back memories of 3 years prior and I know that day is coming again! Indeed, we need to HODL and keep these hands strong  8) 8) 8)

I don't disagree with your overall point about the higher levels of BTC price appreciation are likely going to be much more difficult to achieve, but they still are not impossible...especially since bitcoin is about 1/20th of the market cap of gold, but bitcoin is about 1,000x better than gold, so bitcoin does likely have another 20,000x of price appreciation before reaching all of its likely addressable market and it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin to reach its total addressable market.. and it is not even guaranteed to make gold parity, eve though many folks do recognize bitcoin being in the ballpark of 1,000x better than gold.

So whenever we invest into anything we can look at downside versus upside and also consider that even though bitcoin does not have as much upside potential, its investment thesis is likely stronger today than it has ever been, yet there are still a lot of folks who are barely even learning about bitcoin and barely even getting to the point of considering investing into it, whether it is through some kind of ETF or buying it directly.. and surely the ETF is the inferior product, yet many folks (besides already established bitcoiners) realize that direct ownership of bitcoin is the superior product.

Indeed, Bitcoin is better than gold in many aspects, but I don't see it overtaking gold anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I don't think Bitcoin's market cap will come close to gold's in the next decade. The huge potential is there, of course, but it will certainly take a much longer term for a new hodler to gain what could be reached in a mere blink of an eye in the past.

For now, 4 years is more or less enough for a Bitcoin investor to be of profit. To those who will come late, however, those who will finally do the buying at $100,000, $120,000, or $150,000, a price they deserve, 4 years might not be enough for their investment to even double. In which case, a simple business venture might fare better.

You have a point here, but you must consider those days about "easily rewarded about x10, x1000,x2000". Those days are high risk, no one knows what will be the future, so for me, it's high-risk high reward happened before and all who experienced, them deserve it.
For now, we must appreciate what we have now, especially in Bitcoin, x2,x3,x5 is enough already if you really looking for investment.

Fair enough.


Lump Sum has also given good results and one can check on dcacryptocalculator.com (https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin) previous results of Lump Sum. Its best to see Lump Sum investment on different instances and that will give you fair idea about that. If you are brand new to Bitcoin then just wait and understand the market first. If you spend some time in the market and see historical data then you get a fair idea about when to go for Lump Sum.


This is what I was saying that we must see previous price charts of Bitcoin and see how price moved over last 13 years. In Dec 2017, 19k$ was ATH but today we have 67K$ as ATH. Year or two from today may be we have 100k$, 0.5M as ATH - Who knows?



It again comes down to understanding the market. Whether you are going for DCA or Lump Sum one need to understand that he is investing for long duration and it may take some time before his investment will be in profit. There is possibility that we start investing and price start going up but this may not be the case every time.

That's why we are here trading bitcoin and not gold since we find it more bullish than gold in terms of profit gaining in some time span since gold takes a long time before we can feel that we are on profit. Compare to bitcoin that anything is possible especially if there's a huge news that can hype the market and help to build up the demand.

4 year cycle might really best especially that halving season will occur and that's good timeline for anyone to sell their bitcoins if they want to cashout their profits for deciding to hold on that timeline. Also whatever price they decide to buy I think its still fine as long as they can afford it and there's still huge potential for bitcoin to rise up especially if the demand still strong in future.

I have done few calculations about accumulating Bitcoin in DCA manner and you can see on that post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479211.msg63392684#msg63392684) what result you get after a certain period of time. Bitcoin transaction fee is high these days (this high fee play a significant role in security of the bitcoin network by preventing network abuse) but it wasn't high previously and will come down soon. You will see benefits of DCA if you are planning to invest for next 4 to 5 years or for longer duration.
Following is great tool where you can see results of DCA by varying parameters. 
https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

It was when I started using the DCA method I started appreciating the significance of getting x2 or thereabout in my investment. Coming from the background of hoping for x100 amidst several pain of loses and falling victim of scam, I have come to realize that it is truly a matter of amplified risk to see x100 in ones investment. This much needed understanding was necessary for the calmness I'm enjoying, investing in Bitcoin with my expectations being reasonable and achievable.

Bitcoin may not give x100 now or in the near future but it still have a huge potential for growth. To me I have double advantage investing in Bitcoin which is the fact that Bitcoin is appreciating against the dollar while dollar is appreciating against my local currency as inflation is now at 29% in my country. So it is a rare privilege to be invested in Bitcoin and also building my wealth already.

Of course, we are free to have any kind of speculative view and/or framework that we like in terms of the likely sharpness of bitcoin's future price direction curve.. and/or how exponential it is likely to be.

I personally don't find anything wrong with being largely conservative, and I never really changed my expectations too much in regards to a kind of 6% per year (on average) price appreciation, even though I learned about the 200-week moving average and I have been somewhat obsessed with developing price theories around that in the past 3-4 years (and maybe it has been a bit longer than that), but I think that PlanB might have kind of subliminally sucked me into using the 200-WMA. Both my fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591) and my ideas around sustainable withdraw (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213918#msg63213918) gravitate around the 200-WMA.

So essentially I agree with you about past performance not being able to ensure future results, and also that we are likely to ongoingly continue to experience a lessening of the growth curve, yet at the same time, we likely cannot deny that even relatively gradual ongoing and upwards progression is likely to continue to have quite exponential effects upon bitcoin's overall market cap and that we should not be treating bitcoin as even close to being a mature asset class.

Just to repeat to you my overall tentative punchline, it seems to me that bitcoin could well get to between 1x and 20x of gold's market cap within this cycle or perhaps within 1-2 more cycles into the future, and then I am tentatively thinking that the range between 20x and 1,000x of gold's market cap might take quite a bit longer to play out.. maybe 20 to 200 years.. but  of course if bitcoin becomes the world's reserve currency and the base of the monetary system, then surely there would likely be a quite a few other unknowables that likely would be in play, including other inventions and other ways in which value comes into the world.. so if we might be considering the current addressable market getting close to $1 quadrillion, yet even if we are not inflating away the values, it may well be that the total addressable market could even grow 10x, 20x or even more than that, especially if we are looking 80 years to 200 years into the future.^**

** By the way, I think that it is important to point out that bitcoin's lowest ever performance of the increase in the 200-week moving average played out between June 2022 and November 2023, and that was at a rate of 20% annualized, and so I am not even proclaiming that the rate is not going to go lower than 20% annualized, yet the fact that the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, we are able to use it as a measure to figure out if we might need to make adjustments in our own valuations of our BTC holdings... which I also think that I attempt to accomplish that in my fuck you status chart projections of the bottom (the 200-WMA) continuing to have a decreasing slope, which implies that there could be periods of time in which it also might go negative, even though I keep it going upwards in that particular chart that projects out to 2074 (based on limitations of the page's memory).

I am not really opposed to ideas in which current investors should attempt to be somewhat conservative in their overall expectations of bitcoin's price growth, yet they might end up screwing themselves if they are overly conservative and fail/refuse to adequately prepare psychologically and/or financially for some fo the various more bullish scenarios. which may contribute to their selling too much too soon or maybe not even investing into bitcoin because they believe it has topped or that there are various other competing projects (such as shitcoins or even fiat-reliant investments) that have abilities to compete with bitcoin in terms of longer terms trajectories..

and the power of monetary soundness.. that, in the line of Gresham's law principles causes all value to gravitate towards the soundest of monies, which is currently bitcoin and there is no evidence that any thing is going to come even close to being able to compete with bitcoin, absent some kind of a new revelation of some kind of bitcoin flaw.  So anyhow your own numbers seem to be way overly conservative, even though it does not hurt to have them in mind as possibilities or even a base case (even though they are likely not really seeming to account for what bitcoin really is).


It is true that the upside potential for bitcoin is somewhat obviously reduced - especially when starting out from zero, and even if we start to measure from early 2012 (when BTC prices were around $5), we still end up with quite large exponential BTC price growth in the past 12 years.

Even given all of those kinds of appreciation for bitcoin's growth, we likely can still recognize that bitcoin likely has a stronger investment thesis today than it had at earlier times, even if we consider bitcoin from 2017 when the fork wars had resolved some issues in regards to bitcoin's resilience. So yeah, part of the punchline with a stronger investment thesis does also come with less upside potential.. but also less downside potential... even though the possibility of going to zero never completely disappears, but bitcoin's having a strong investment thesis likely comes from the fact that scenarios of it going to zero have been concluded as being less and less and less likely with the passage of time (a real world application of the Lindy Effect).


Sure we cannot ignore the various all time highs, and maybe part of the reason I get so nervous in regards to bitcoin about trying to figure out what to do or how to think about bitcoin from various ATHs is that they have tendencies (and likely inevitabilities for the coming 20 years or more) to be all over the place and way less reliable than attempting to use BTC price bottoms (such as the 200-week moving average) in order to attempt to get some kind of bearing upon where we are at and where we are likely going....

.. which to me seems to be a kind of tension between an investor and trader way of thinking about bitcoin holdings.


I don't have any problems with that kind of an assessment, even though if we are attempting to look at this realistically, there can be justification of several BTC accumulation techniques (referring to DCA, lump sum and buying on dips) being carried out simultaneously and being reassessed from time to time - since surely guys are going to want to maximize their ability to catch dips if they can, yet at the same time, at any given time, it may or may not be practical to be waiting for dips. 

So if a guy is just starting out, then yeah he has a certain amount of value that he might be considering for his initial investment and he might spread that over 6 months... but then once he has already made his investment, then he merely has whatever income (cashflow) is coming to him on a regular basis which might be paid weekly or monthly or some other period, and he will be deciding as it comes in whether and/or how much to allocate to bitcoin, the same would come to be the case if he got some kind of lump sum extra come in such as a bonus, or some discovery of some value that he had available or maybe he sold some property (or asset), as then at the point that the extra cash comes available he can decide which of the three categories and how much he wants to allocate.. which is lump sum, DCA, buying on dips.. ..

Sometimes the categories can overlap, because even if he gets some kind of extra bonus or something like that, and if he always buys right away when he gets the money (or within a couple of weeks), then he may well be employing DCA, even though he has lump sum amounts, and if he is waiting for the price to go down to certain price points he is employing buying on dips (even if he might be delaying of spending a lump sum that he has), so what we call it may well depend upon how we structure it... and the extent to which we try to strategize the taking advantage of dips, and so some of the disagreement and quibbling may well have to do with getting caught on semantics rather than attempting to figure out context in order to explain what you are doing and whether you might attempt to employ a variety of strategies or stick with some strict ways of investing that may well be less flexible, but sometimes it can be important to follow some strict ways of investing rather than trying to overly strategize, especially when it comes to bitcoin.. and many times guys getting worked up about getting BTC at the lowest price that they can, but then at the same time they might end up being inadequately prepared for up.


Some of us are investing and not trading in bitcoin, even though I get your point about both bitcoin's volatility to the upside and also bitcoin's volatility in general likely makes it better for trading, but I consider it a bit less preferable to trade bitcoin, since bitcoin is amongst the best, if not the best asset known to mankind.. so why should anyone be trading such a pristine asset rather than holding it, unless merely trading with a relatively small portion of his holdings.


yes... there is a stair-stepping dynamic in bitcoin, and from time to time it unexpectedly stair-steps up a bit, and never comes back down, which largely means that you should be in the investment at the time rather than fucking around and not being in the investment, which is also part of the additional justification to invest rather than trade bitcoin.


Why would anyone want to sell the best asset known to man? 

Sure sell a bit of it, but mostly hold seem to be the best idea, except maybe if someone has already reached a high over accumulation of BTC then they might just be regularly selling as the BTC price goes up because they already have too many BTC.

But if you are selling in order to accumulate more, that seems dumb (or at least short-sighted).


But are we trading or are we holding?  I can see from either perspective, even though surely I appreciate the longer term ways of thinking about bitcoin.

Maybe to flesh it out a bit.  Buying at whatever price is fine when someone has a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, but it also could be fine for someone who is valuing their purchase of bitcoin in terms of dollar profits that they can get and they buy and then they just sell at some point that the BTC price is higher or that the BTC price more or less reaches some kind of short-term (short-sighted) dollar price that they are seeking to achieve.

This map is screaming out the importance of the Bitcoin four years cycle, and it only favours those who understands, this was how I found peace with Bitcoin investment, if you can respect the four years cycle you will be a long term winner.

Although, I choose to remain a realist, Bitcoin can't pump like it used to do in the past year when it was earlier and cheap, now do not let your too much price expectations take the best of you, be ready to start taking some profits after having going into the year 2025.

To some people, Bitcoin is the best-known asset to humans and they are willing to sit and even sleep on their bags, they have the conviction for long term, this is also my goal but it won't stop me from taking profits and buying back the dips in 2026, like I've said before, all it takes is understanding the four year cycle.

For sure the map shows the role which the four years cycle plays in Bitcoin but I disagree with the bolded statement because most people do not really understand the four years cycle of Bitcoin but it's really favouring them through the help of DCA. For instance I never knew of the for years cycle of Bitcoin but I know about the volatility of Bitcoin so after reading some threads like buy the dip and hodl I quickly adapt to DCA strategy of accumulation without understanding the Bitcoin cycle and I have been accumulating Bitcoin for some time now and I'm get favour from it because it's convenient enough to allow me take good care of other bills.

What I'm saying in essence is you do not necessarily need to understand the four years cycle of Bitcoin before you get favoured from it. as long as your practicing a favourable strategy you can also be a long term winner without understanding the four years cycle of Bitcoin.

I don't know any thing about how much Bitcoin will do this time, so I will only follow some few guides in this forum for sustainable Bitcoin withdrawal strategy in order not mess my targets up.

You know, the first line of your sentence seems to be a criticism but I will skip that. the sad truth is nobody makes decisions for anybody so it's in your court to play your ball but I will not be a party to regrets. although its good to enjoy your profit I mean what's the need to invest if you won't make use of the profit and like someone once told me life is too short to be unhappy so make your self happy. but even before investing you should know that what you're investing is an amount that you can do without for a long time so if this has been put into consideration then you wouldn't be think of touching your investment at any point soon.

Note; don't mind my English only take the message.

Firstly as a newbie in Bitcoin, some of us where first talked on how Bitcoin will overnight makes a person wealthy by making 100x of one's investment untill I began doing more research and perherps get to join this forum then understood how the system works now. The most interesting facts about Bitcoin is the entrustment of one's funds without a doubt of it falling out and with time the investment makes profits from the holdings.

 

When I was new to Bitcoin I used Lump Sum technique. But with time I came to know that DCA is another way and when I tried I came to know about its benefits. I think it take time before people understand DCA and Lump Sum.
The only problem with dips is that we are not sure when they are occuring. Figuring out the dips is most crucial part if you are investing in "buying on dips".


I agree that being strict is more easy because you have to follow one straight path and you don't need to look for DIPs or any other variation in price. If you are following one strategy then you need to have faith in that strategy that it will suit you. Like if you are following DCA then you need to be sure that this will benefit you in the long run.
All this will be clear with time as you invest not only your money but your time and mind in Bitcoin.

There are ways to attempt to invest somewhat blindly in dip-buying too, which would be that you set ladder buy orders.  I had already given such an example, but maybe I can try again.

Let's say that you are brand new to bitcoin, and over the past 10 years, you have built up about a $50k investment portfolio in various other investments, and so your annual income is about $40k per year.. and so you have right around 120% of a year's worth of income in your investment portfolio. Let's say that you also have right around $3.4k saved up in cash that you can invest into bitcoin (or anything else if you wanted to, but you have already decided upon bitcoin), and you make enough that you can invest $100 per week ($2,600) over the next 6 months.

So if your total investment allocation for bitcoin is $6k for the next 6 months, but you ONLY have $3,400 in cash right now, you could decide to invest half ($1.7k) of your available cash as a lump sum and the other half ($1.7k) to save for buying on dips, and so you can set those buying on dips however, you like with a possible expectation that you are not going to use up all of the $1,700 in the next 6 months... .but if you are considering that the current 200-week moving average of $30,750 is at or around the bottom, then you might want to structure your buys around that.  So for example, if you made your initial lump sum buy of $1,700 at $43k, then maybe you could structure your buys down from $41k to $30k.. which would be 11 buy orders ($155 each) if they were every $1k, and that would be right around 17 buy orders ($100 each) if you structured them every $750. and so you can set up your buy order increments and your amounts however you like in order to dedicate the remainder of your cash for buying on dips.

So right now, you might not know if after 6 months you would have had invested all of your $6k into BTC which currently would be right around 11% of your total investment portfolio (that is $56k =( $50k + $6K))... and maybe if you had not reached such a target, then you continue to invest $100 per week into bitcoin until you reach whatever might be your target. and you can move around your buying on dip amount if you want, and including other kinds of flexible ways to continue to maintain some buy orders that are dedicated to buying on dips while at the same time having had exercised lump sum and also incorporated buying on dips... so you are doing all three, even if you are a newbie to BTC investing.. but you are engaging in planning and also perhaps creating goals in terms of how much of a BTC allocation you would like to target, and of course, if you continue to learn about bitcoin as you go you can also reassess your plan as you go, so even though you have an initial plan for 6 months, you could extend it or you could add new terms to it based upon your learning along the way and maybe even some various things going on with your own finances and/or psychology (or even your assessment and reassessment of your 9 factors (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590)).


You are likely never going to be 100% sure.  You can invest, and surely the more that your portfolio goes into profits and the more cushion that you might have, then you might start to build greater and greater confidence that you are on the right path and you are doing the right thing.  Even though you never were investing in  the dark, you were always investing based on probabilities and some level of confidence that bitcoin is an asymmetric bet that is worth considering some kind of a reasonable allocation, whether that is in the ballpark of somewhere between 5% and 25% or if you choose some other allocation level based on your own assessment of your circumstances.

Being able to buy back after taking profits is the major challenge some people face especially those who are following the  four years cycle. Lets put it to perspective. I remember many people who rode the wave of 2021 bull run and made so much money liquidating their Bitcoin which they bought at very cheap prices. As of today, most of them do not have any Bitcoin to their name. Some that because millionaires are were fondly celebrated as Bitcoin millionaires then are not holding Bitcoin today instead some bought shitcoins because they want to make x1000. I equally know some of them that started their own crypto project with part of the money they made from selling their Bitcoin in 2021; they did this hoping to cash out big amount and also answering founders. There are so many stories about people who sold during the bull run of 2021 but the summary is that a lot of them are no longer holding Bitcoin where some also have lavished the money in frivolities.

I don't know those who became richer in Bitcoin following the four years cycle of Bitcoin. Unless they are keeping it top secret which is also possible. Personally, I do not feel I can effectively follow the market cycle to avoid making a mistake.

You have provided concise explanations of the advantages and disadvantages of lump-sum investment vs DCA. While lump-sum investment can be dangerous in unfavorable market situations, it can also result in large profits in favorable circumstances. By spreading out your investments across time with DCA, you lower your chance of losing money in the event of a market collapse. However, if the market takes off, you might pass on the chance to make a significant profit

When determining which strategy is ideal for you, I believe it's critical to take your long-term objectives and risk tolerance into account. It's also important to remember that DCA may be more practical for people who lack a sizable sum of money to invest all at once.


The decision of how much and how often to invest is one of the most essential elements of DCA. As an illustration, you may choose to invest a certain sum of money each week, month, or quarter. Rather of investing your entire savings all at once, the goal is to spread it out over time. This strategy can result in lower total expenses and helps to moderate market volatility. Another tactic is to automate your DCA plan, which would cause frequent automated transfers of funds from your bank account to your investing account.


.

It seems that you have not described the difference between DCA and lump sum correctly.

Of course, if you have a lump sum of money available then you can choose how to invest it within the three categories of lump sum, DCA and buying on dips. 

If you choose to lump sum, you run the risk of the price moving against you in a short period of time, so yeah you have described DCA as potentially offsetting that risk, but it does not completely offset the overall risk of the investment, just the risk of a short term investment that might end up being wrong and ONLY if the BTC price subsequently moves agains you.  On the other hand, you also run the risk that the price might move in your favor. which would not be a risk, it would be considered a benefit of lump summing... so maybe DCA offsets volatility risk even though it does not completely remove portfolio risk and it even disadvantages you if the BTC price goes up.

In other words, DCA does not stop the risk, except perhaps just the short term trade off between investing the whole amount right away or spreading it out.. and it is not always advantageous to spread out the investments, which maybe is part of the justification to figure out some kind of balance between buying BTC right away or waiting for a dip or waiting for various time periods to pass so that you can manage your cashflow better if you BTC buys are spread through the month rather than happening all at once each month.

Now, if you have $100 per week coming in that is available for investing into bitcoin, then you could invest it all right away. and that is frequently called DCA, but it may well be semantics in some sense to not call that lump summing, especially if you buy right away.. 

If you receive a $3k bonus three times per year that could be available for investing into BTC, then that could also be considered DCA if you use it all right away to buy BTC as soon as you get it, even if you are choosing to invest it all at once each time it comes in and your are calling your practice lump sum... but you might also consider dividing that same $3k into three and investing $1k right away, spread $1k for buying on dips and spread the other $1k over a period of time such as $200 every two weeks for five installments.


Yes.. it does not seem so reasonable to divide $100 into three parts, and even less reasonable to divide $10 into 3 parts even though it is possible to do so... but the fees sometimes will make it even less feasible to divide smaller amounts into several parts.
 

This is all true, and many of the times you can take the money from a lump sum that is available or you could take the money from cashflow that is coming in, so you might measure what is the difference between the amount that you have coming in and your expenses (which would be your disposable/discretionary income), and if you try to use high portions of your DCA for buying BTC or any other investment, then you may well get yourself into trouble... so if you were to end up engaging in some kind of automatic DCA, then you would want to make sure that the amount is reasonable and not going to lead you into trouble... yet at the ame time, I am personally a little bothered by some of the automatic DCA systems since they may well not permit you to choose the exact time of your purchase, so anyone using automatic DCA might want to consider if they are doing the DCA buys at a certain time of the day or are they allowing you to customize your automated DCA buy time.

You're correct that Automatic DCA can be a pain the a$$ sometimes because it doesn't let you choose the timing of when to make your investment but we can't also overlook the importance of automatic DCA.
The convenience associated with automatic DCA is one of its primary advantages. The system will take care of remembering to make your investments on a regular basis, so you don't have to. This might be especially useful if you're busy or have a tendency to forget to invest. We are aware of investors who, because to their hectic schedules or excessive activities, occasionally forget to DCA for the day.

The ability of automatic DCA to lessen the emotional impact of investing is another benefit. When the market is highly volatile, it can be difficult to maintain discipline and follow a strategy that you've initially set to follow, but automatic DCA can help you remain on course.


Well, It actually depends on your unique situation and choices, though. However, it can be worthwhile to think about manual DCA rather than automatic DCA if you're someone who is at ease handling your own assets and doesn't mind the additional work. In this manner, you will have greater control over your tax status and be able to select the precise timing and amount of your investment.

In as much the Automatic DCA has an advantage it must surely have disadvantages, it can never be too perfect, we are now left with the choice whether to follow such a pattern or not.
Making use of the automatic DCA strategy should be activated only when their is a close interval between the time of DCAING, like trying to DCA in every 3 to 4 days period then applying this will help reduce the work load of consistently purchasing without skipping any day.

If there was a perfect and flawless investment approach then everyone would be trooping into it. Every investment technique or approach has its disadvantages, whether you wanna DCA or you wanna Lump Sum, they all have their risks attached, but it's left for you to choose which pattern is a lot more easier for you or the one that aligns with your investment goals. For instance, if your goal is to HODL Bitcoin for the long term or the short-term. This will help you choose or decide which technique to employ, so it's not really about perfection but which is in alignment with your investment goals. Like I stated before, let's assume you wish to HODL for long term, you'll be wish enough not to choose Lump Summing because you might get caught of with the whole market tension, same thing with when you just want to HODL for a short-term with intentions of making a quick profit out of Bitcoin, this way, Lump Summing is thr best technique for you because you'll need to target a particular time in thr market and then put in all your money and if things just go according to your plan and the market takes positive turn, you'll make your profits just about immediately. So it's about choosing the right technique that suites and aligns with your goals.

I'd argue that DCA is the most practical way to invest for any kind of sum of money -- even if you're doing lumpsum now/today, you'll want to invest more in the future (who doesn't?). I don't think there's any case of any guy who says I'll invest $1 million in this asset today, we're done.

They're going to see it in a few years and grow it even more. Another lumpsum? Sure, then it essentially becomes DCA over time :)

I couldn't agree with you more there. True, a lot of people consider DCA to be a method for gradually investing small amounts of money, but it may also be applied to greater sums. Also, as you pointed out, even if you make a sizable first investment, you'll probably want to make more in the future, so it's really just another type of DCA. Actually, more than anything else, it's a mindset.

I think a common misperception about DCA is that it's only for those with little money. In actuality, though, DCA can be an effective strategy for everybody, regardless of their financial circumstances. As an illustration, suppose you have $100,000 to invest. You must choose between employing DCA and lump summing. You will immediately have $100,000 in the market if you invest it all at once, but you will also be taking on greater risk. You can lose a lot of money if the market dips soon after you make an investment.

However, you will be distributing your risk and investing your money gradually if you employ DCA and invest $10,000 every month for 10 months. Thus, even if the market dips, you will only lose a little portion of your investment. Additionally, DCAing will help you in the long run because you'll end up purchasing more Bitcoin during periods of low price and less during periods of high price. Therefore, if you employ DCA, you can ultimately wind up having more Bitcoin even if you're investing the same amount of money.

And if you hold for a long time then you have, it is holding of like ten to more years and that is what holding is supposed to look like, see a lot of people now when they hold for maybe one of two years they start complaining and the next thing you will sell this thing is strategic and you have to invest with a reasonable amount for you to be able to archive that kind of goal because having bitcoin worth of maybe worth 100 dollars and you holding for 10 years you won't have any significant profit, and that is a newly discovered thing for me if you want to buy, it is better to buy some significant amount of bitcoin.

people who hold will not even want to have any business with using it as a currency, their focus should be the profit they will make over the years, I wish I could even open my own mining farm someday that will be a wish come true.

It depends on the individual qualities of the investor, if he can identify bearish and bullish markets, then he can take profits every cycle without waiting for ten years and buy again in the bearish market. Hold is very good, the main goal should be to hold Bitcoin, but if the investor has enough knowledge to increase the amount of Bitcoin then this will be an even better investment. If there is a fear that he may lose what he has, or is not confident in his analytical abilities, then it is better not to sell, and to hold for as long, as he sees fit.

BlackRock's Rick Rieder Talks Bitcoin With WSJ's Take On the Week
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-earnings-02-08-2024/card/blackrock-s-rick-rieder-talks-bitcoin-with-wsj-s-take-on-the-week-HqJNsb92geninqxoD1qb

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When I see articles like this, I stop believing in price pumps. There are also other opinions that national currencies are crap, and the only way out is to buy Bitcoin.
The only thing I don’t know is the level to which the price will pump, but then we will fly down.
If you listen to well-known experts, then look at what they said following the last fall in the price of Bitcoin.

At that point that person will no longer be an investor but a long term trader, and without a doubt someone which can identify with some degree of accuracy when each cycle is about to appear can make more money than someone that is just holding their coins, the catch is that this is too difficult and the majority of us cannot do it, for this reason we prefer simply to buy bitcoin whenever we have some cash around and hold it for as long as we can, and despite the simplicity of this strategy, it is a very effective one.

There does not need to be any kind of either or mindset, and you (Gormicsta) even mentioned earlier that guys should be attempting to align their strategy to their various goals.

And, so yeah, let's take that person with $100k.  What else do we know about him?  Maybe we can imagine that the $100k  is some kind of proportion of his overall investment portfolio, and he might be inclined towards front loading his BTC investment or maybe he just wants to get his investment out of the way so that he does not have to think about it. 

Well, if he had already told himself taht he is ONLY going in for $100k and that's it, then he has a very narrow way of thinking

We might imagine that he might want to take that size of investment into bitcoin because he wants to put 25% of his total investment portfolio into bitcoin.. so maybe his investment portfolio is $300k and if he puts $100k of bitcoin then BTC becomes 25% of his investment portfolio.

Personally I like the idea of front loading but also considering various ways to supplement any investment.  Maybe a guy like this has $100k plus he has a cashflow in which he could invest $500 per week into bitcoin for the next 26 weeks (so that would be an additional $13k)  The three categories that he has to consider for the $100k is DCA, buying on dips and lump sum.  Based on his $13k coming in in the next 6 months, he could divide into three parts which might be $33,333 in each part, or he could take some other approach.. to maybe include his cashflow into the calculation which would be $37,666 for each of the three parts ($113k / 3).  But yeah if he is a bit anxious to get in, then maybe  he puts something like $70k into front-loading by lump sum buying and the other two parts of buying on dip and DCA might therefore be $21.5k each ($43k/2). 

There are a lot of creative ways to calculate how much cash you have available now and account for your cashflow and also account for being prepared in case the BTC price goes down instead of up.. but sometimes people are so determined that the price is ulitmately gong up that they do not mind just front loading all of it and not preparing for down or sideways and their cashflow does not matter as much as it does to people who might rely more on cashflows rathe than money that they can move around from other investments. 

I think the DCA method is more systematic and takes a well defined approach and not done randomly whenever the investors have some funds. There were even more refinement made to ensure that both buying and holding are done efficiently. One of such is the need to set aside emergency funds for any urgent need that comes up within the buying period. This will ensure the investor does not sell off his Bitcoin when he run into problems. Recur that the ultimate purpose of making the investment is to be able to HODL just like this thread suggested.

It will be difficult to HODL if adequate plans are not made to prepare for emergencies. You cannot manage your BTC portfolio well if you inject all your cashflow into Bitcoin without setting aside some funds. People who do this are forced to sell their BTC when they do not plan to and even at low prices because they are in desperate need of funds.

This proves but one thing, it shows that there's a lot of nuance involved in deciding how to choose one's investment approach. It's not as simple as choosing one approach over the other,  it's about balancing risk and reward, and finding the right mix for your personal situation. It's also very important to consider your long-term goals and how the different approaches might impact your ability to reach those goals.

The Lump Sum and DCA debate is often framed as an either/or proposition, but there are actually a lot of different options in between. It's possible to split the difference and do a combination of both strategies. For example, someone could make a large lump sum investment but then use DCA to gradually increase their position over time or they could alternatively do a smaller lump sum investment and then use DCA to add to their position if the price goes down. Because either ways one should really be prepared for everything when investing in Bitcoin, it's good to be optimistic about the price of Bitcoin going up, maybe due to your research or some circumstances that may propel it to go up, some people even make important financial decisions that would affect them just because someone else says so. Just being optimistic isn't enough, one have to also prepare for the worse too, prepare for an alternate measure, just incase things doesn't go as expected.

Some people might feel comfortable making decisions that concern their investment on their own and without involving any third party, but I Believe it's really important to consult a financial advisor who can help them weigh the different options and make a decision that's right for them. Because most investors don't even know what decision would impact their goals, some are following a strategy simply because others are doing the same thing. This is why it would be really helpful to seek the services of a financial advisor so one can start making the right decision towards choosing the right approach.

And that to me is the brilliance of DCA which I will always recommend, in fact, the only thing I advice. Whatever the situation, whatever the financial cashflow available and whatever the risk appetite, DCA always wins you some gains even as short as 2 to 3 years (the entire bear window in a cycle).

It even gives confidence and experience to those who can't afford strategy or don't have wisdom. It's like a surefire way, I wish I did it much earlier.

This is why I advocate for preparedness before investing in bitcoin, though your funds for should not be very satisfactory for you before you can invest in bitcoin, bitcoin investment required funds and basic understand of this digital asset, make sure that you have sufficient emergency fund to carter for needs when the arrive for a particular and also increase your income by looking jobs that will increase your earnings to enable you hold for a long time, without seeing this foundation, it will be very difficult for you to hold for as much you want, complain must come more especially when their is pressing needs, if any one want to build an asset in Bitcoin I think all these aforementioned above should be put into consideration so that one can hold with ease without obstruction of any kind.

You keep framing a dichotomy between lump sum and DCA, yet even buying on the dip has a lot of potential for importance.. and I hate to narrow down too much in regards to when buying on the dip might be a better frame, except I think it should be a strategy for someone who largely already has prepared for up rather than someone who is not adequately prepared for up. 

From my perspective, the person who employs buying the dip without adequately preparing for UP is either employing a kind of gambling strategy and/or a waiting strategy.. and waiting strategies kind of annoy me because they are likely not bullish enough on bitcoin (from my perspective).

Going back to the $100k or the $113k in 6 months example, like I mentioned such a person could front load a bit (such as $70k) and then dedicate the remainder towards DCA and buying on dips and then reassess after 6 months.  So if the remainder 43.5k is divided into 2, then each of the portions would be $21.5k, so DCA could be $827 per week for the next 26 weeks, and then the buying on dip portion could perhaps be structured to go down to around $31k (which is right around where the 200-week moving average is right now... so if the guy is a bit anxious that dips might not happen, maybe he ONLY goes down to $35k.. and yeah we already know that right now it could well be possible that sub $40k might never be reached again; however, if the person is a bit more comfortable with his level of front loading, then he could structure his buying on dip to go down to $28k or something like that.  maybe the guy who decides to ONLY go down to $35k might choose buy on dips every $500 dip starting at $46,500 (presuming that his lump sum of $70k had been executed at $47k), so then that would be 23 buy orders which would be $935 each ($21.5k / 23).  Alternatively, if the guy is quite satisfied about his level of preparation for up, then maybe he starts his buy orders at $44.5k, and then has them every $1k down to $28.5k, which would be 16 buy orders of $1,344 ($21.5k /16).

My main point is just to show that buying on dips can have quite a lot of importance, especially for the guy who is already prepared for UP, but at the same time is wanting to structure some advantages in case the BTC price runs against him. .and yeah, he is not going to make any kind of killing off of buying on dips because he likely is losing way more value in his holdings from the BTC price going down rather than UP, but at the same time, he ends up employing some tactics to lower his cost per BTC, while still holding and still investing and refusing to sell, by buying at various price points on the way down in accordance with his own views of his situation that includes some calculations of odds of where he believes the BTC price is and where it might go and without being so cocky as to presume that he knows the answer but at the same time putting his money where his mouth is.


I doubt that a financial advisor is going to be helpful for most people who are able to interact with a forum like this, unless they are just wanting to get sold on inferior ideas and inferior products, and sure there might be some financial advisors who will be ready, wiling and able to provide accurate advice that includes BTC accumulation and maintenance strategies, but a lot of them are likely wanting to get their clients into products that justify their fees.. .. and don't get me wrong, I am not against knowledge and/or brainstorming with folks.. but I would think that there are likely better ways to spend time, even though surely many people are busy with their own lives too.. so they might end up not spending enough time in regards to some kinds of knowledge that should be fairly easily within their grasp.. and sure consult with a financial advisor, but also consider preparing for any such consultations in order to really be able to engage in critical thinking during any such consultation rather than getting sold some good, products or even advise against bitcoin and into shitcoins that may well not be financially good for you.


For sure, for anyone who has BTC accumulation goals, when in doubt DCA, it is likely superior to both lump sum and buying on dip for the vast majority of folks, especially in their earlier stages of building their BTC holdings, especially since an overwhelming number of normies do not even have any kind of realistic option of lump sum (without devolving into gambling) and if they do have some lump sum available, it may well even be better to figure out some kind of a DCA way to strategize their lump sum that would not just be putting it all in at once which might convert them into a waiting strategy, especially if they over do their lump sum from the beginning.. ..

And, any how, DCA can become even more powerful when supplemented with lump sum and buying on dips, yet we would still have to presume some abilities to incorporate those lump sum and buying on dips, which tends to be some kind of lump sum being available or perhaps some sufficient level of already having had bought BTC in order to justify already largely being prepared for UP... so the punchline, when in doubt DCA, structure your DCA to a reasonable level of your disposable income (and maybe you have to adjust up and down on a weekly basis depending on cashflow variations), and don't be waiting around, especially when it comes to BTC and making sure (at all times) that you are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP... even if the BTC price is dipping and continuing to dip, make sure to continue to prepare for UP.. which DCA does seem to help in accomplishing such.

You are right! The quality of information in this forum can hardly be gotten from any financial advisor. Just that many people have not really been paying attention or take what we have here seriously. I know the transformation that has happened to me ever since I became active here. My spending habits have also changed as I now thinking more of saving, and have been able to identify what is important and what I do not really need even though I have been wasting money on them in the past. The concept of emergency fund is also one great thing I never considered in taking my investment decisions because I never really knew about it. As simple as it may sound, emergency fund is like additional security on the investment because without it, the investment can be terminated any time. There are many things I have learnt in this forum that I will not be able to narrate. I should be among those that consder themselves fortunate to be in this forum.

Wow, this is a really insightful comment and I think you've covered some important points here. I completely agree that there are different ways to approach investing in Bitcoin, and it's important to consider factors like cash flow, personal risk tolerance, and portfolio composition when making investment decisions. It's also worth remembering that investing in Bitcoin is still a relatively new and highly speculative investment, so it's important to approach it with caution and to be prepared for volatility. But it's clear that you've done your research and thought carefully about the best strategy for you, and I think that's a great approach.

So do I, honestly speaking I have never heard any advise that's quality compared to the informations I am getting here, because now the more saving rather than spending.
Just like the topic, which says what it says, one can not hold Bitcoin if he's not ready for holding. Holding is saving if one can not save he can not also holding Bitcoin.
However, saving fiat is more easier than saving Bitcoin because some fiat currency will not add any interest and that will make many people not to spend their fiat currency as they will not want to lose all of them.
But when one is saving in Bitcoin and profits starts coming, he/she will want to sell little because he will be thinking that more profit will come, which is not so. And I also think that's why the Op created the thread and put the topic this way. There are many who's finding it very difficult to hold Bitcoin because ones small profits comes in they will sell, especially those who's invested with lum sum instead of DCA method, as they invest big they also sell big.

Honestly, I don't think hodling is that important. I agree that it's a very simple and very profitable long-term strategy with Bitcoin. But people can treat Bitcoin as money, selling and buying all the time. It's also fine to treat it like savings, taking out a part when needed, not when a hodling period is over. And then there's indefinite hodling, normally explained by phrases like 'if you wait long enough, you won't have to sell your BTC'. But what does it mean? Using it directly and exchanging for goods? Taking loans based on wealth you have in BTC, like rich people in the US do with traditional assets? Never using your Bitcoin (then what's the point of having it)?
There are many questions that people need to find their individual answers to.

Risk can't be completely avoided but its impact can be minimised. I have see from previous price chart of Bitcoin that risk can be lessened if your investment is spanned over a larger duration. For short term DCA nor Lump Sum is recommended. 
Lump Sum is not a bad option. You just need to prepare yourself for this startegy and then invest when you think is best time to jump. DCA no doubt minimised the risk to greater level because you are continuously buying over a period of time and that gives you a good average price.

You can check my following post to see how much return DCA and Lump Sum give you:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479211.msg63392684#msg63392684

That's true. risk will always be present in investing, regardless of the technique you use. However, as you pointed out, there are ways to reduce that risk, including lump sum investment and DCA. It's important, in my opinion, to keep in mind that everyone has a different level of risk tolerance; some people may feel more at ease with certain levels of risk, while others may wish to lessen it.  

In any case, I think it's critical to take into account your personal risk profile. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to risk tolerance. Certain individuals are naturally more at ease with risk than others. It's also critical to consider your investment timeline. When investing for the long term, for instance, you could be more ready to take on more risk because you will have more time to make up for any short-term losses. However, you may want to prioritize risk minimization and exercise extra caution if you're investing for a short period of time.


Nicely said, but you can agree with me that different people have different perspective and viewpoint about Bitcoin investment. There are people who are looking for ways to invest for their future and Bitcoin happens to be one of the most profitable and safest investment that can is believe to have the ability to last almost a lifetime.
Before Bitcoin was even considered an option, people held gold as future investment for years without intentions of touching or selling a portion of it to fund their needs.

The fact you are Hodling Bitcoin doesn't mean you can't have other investments that you can run to whenever you need money. But nothing is more reassuring than having a pile of Bitcoin just lying in your wallet for years and you just live your normal while you just watch your money grow as the years go by. I'll have to disagree with you that Hodling isn't that important, because it's very much important, because I see it as the only way one can almost avoid risk of loosing money when it comes to Bitcoin investment. People who have Hodled Bitcoin for the past 10 years I believe can confirm this, because there's no way they could've made any losses, except maybe their wallets were compromised or something, but if it's loosing funds to the market, I doubt it's possible. I stand to be corrected.

You sound like one of those BIG blocker hold overs from 2017.


FTFY

There are mostly three BTC accumulation strategies, and for many folks they should not be all or nothing, especially if you are attempting to either mitigate volatility risk and/or to attempt to tailor your BTC accumulation to your own situation.

That is DCA, lump sum and buying on dips.  Of course there is HODL, also even though it does not really help to accumulate but it might remind a person not to panic in terms of selling at the wrong times, especially if in a situation of running out of money while the BTC price keeps dipping.


FTFY... As a reminder the comparison in your linked post is referring to past performance not future performance.


Long time has greater potential to give compounding and exponential value growth benefits.... not guaranteed but surely within a reasonable realm of considerations... especially with something like bitcoin...

See my recent post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479482.msg63641156#msg63641156) in which I attempt to point out bitcoin's historical compounding.


There are always ways to lose money and past performance is not a guarantee to future results, even though you are talking about anyone who mostly held their coins more than 5 years is in profits, and these days anyone who DCA's for any period of time (more than a month or two) would be in profits so long as they were consistently buying simiilar quantities of BTC at regular intervals over the whole period of time.. such as weekly.

Of course people are not necessarily consistent, so if some folks might have front loaded their investment at various times in 2021 when the BTC price is higher than now, then it would not be clear how much they would have had to continue to invest in DCA and perhaps other tactics in order to be profitable at today's BTC prices.

If you are accumulating bticoins then you need to bear all sort of price variations. You may face situations where bitcoin price may go down from your buying price and you start hearing traditional sounds like "Bitcoin is going down and will never recover". That's the test one has to pass if he want to HODL for long term. The real benefit of accumulating Bitcoin is to HODL it for longer duration and its where your patience is tested.


Of course by looking at previous price charts we can make predictions which can be true or false

I was super sleepy last night. Thanks for the FTFY

It's really great to see such words from someone who's even older than me in this forum. As I said before, I only give one advice to newbies, as I consider it the only foolproof way to ensure you gain something.

I keep saying that majority of us here don't have the knowledge, intelligence. Or access or wealth. To do anything really special or smart with our money. That's where DCA allows us to take advantage of Bitcoin while not sacrificing all the time and risk that others like traders/speculators do.

DCA takes away all that thinking and analyzing, and, as you say, allows everyone to come back at a time when they are capable of all that risk analysis etc.

It's just, a no lose way to make sure you don't lose time on getting in on BTC and don't lose time analysing and trying to jump ahead of market.

You are right, and I think JJG is a senior person who is a motivator in terms of DCA strategy because his advice and what he always talks about regarding DCA is always correct and also makes sense. And I often read his posts because they can help and also motivate me in using the DCA strategy.
Actually, in my opinion, investing is easy to understand and can be done without difficulty, but you have to be consistent, one way is to invest regularly, which is known as the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) concept.
And many people feel afraid or doubtful and also feel unprepared because they feel they don't have the time and knowledge to do it, and there are also other reasons because they are not ready to face risks and fluctuating markets.
And none of that will be a problem for them because the DCA strategy makes it easy for them without having to have in-depth knowledge and also a lot of time to do it, the most important thing is to have a monthly income or salary. Being able to set aside money to buy Bitcoin regularly after prioritizing important needs and doing it for the long term, and this strategy is very important for the future as well as old age for a financially happy and peaceful life.

It is good you hit the nail by the head. DCA is the method I will recommend anytime any day to newbies or those struggling to achieve consistency in their bitcoin accumulation. It does not too much technical knowledge neither does it require huge capital to follow. It is possible for every class of income and I consider it a wonderful opportunity for those who are working and doing business and realizing money that is enough to for their basic needs and leave some reasonable balance, part of which can be saved in Bitcoin while the rest kept as reserve.

I have chosen to use the DCA method in buying bitcoin to save for the future, these were funds I would have spent for things that are not important but the DCA method have helped me see what those small regular income can help me accomplish in the future.

Yes, I agree that past performances do not guarantee future results but we can agree that Bitcoin is the most established Crypto asset with the highest capitalization thereby giving some sort of advantage because there's only one out of a million chances that Bitcoin is going to crash or that it's going to dip and fail to recover. Again,  when we say past performances doesn't guarantee future results in Bitcoin, there could be exceptions when you're investing for the long-term, whether using the DCA or Lump Sum.

Yes, when it comes to DCAing, consistency is crucial. You won't truly reaping the benefits of DCAing if you simply buy when the price is high and sell when it falls. Additionally, I believe it's important to keep in mind that DCAing is only a method that might help to lower risk and possibly improve profits over time and not a guarantee of profit because anything can happen in the world of bitcoin.

It all depends on what we want in this case.
Doing the same thing as you said is also not a mistake because it is an asset that we have so we are free to do anything and make it a savings tool where when we need money then we can take it little by little from the profits we have. But on the other hand in this case determining that bitcoin is a tool for investment is also not wrong because everything has its own portion and each desire depends on our own perception.

Do what you think is profitable because being in bitcoin is not just to get hung up on what others are doing because in the end everyone has their own strategy and desire in setting bitcoin as their own will.

Something like this will definitely happen because after all when we are entering bullish then there will definitely be a lot of people who talk positively about bitcoin especially for those who have advantages in media issues because after all they will prepare for what to do where bitcoin continues to soar and prepare to drop it back just like before.

They experts can sometimes change statements directly just for their own benefit but for now it is certain that bitcoin will definitely continue to be hailed because they also realize if they are still an antagonist for bitcoin now it will not be too useful but it could be a trap because when we trust the experts too much it is we ourselves who will eventually become a hassle.
I personally will not be too interested in what they say because however the current statement may change in the future but most importantly our confidence will not fade with bitcoin.

No doubt, "hodling" has several approaches, each with its own benefits. I believe Bitcoin is more than an investment or cash. It's valuable for its versatility. Bitcoin can be sold, bought, or used as a store of value

Thoughtful patience is "hodling". We're not just waiting; Bitcoin has the ability to change our wealth approach. Leveraging assets without liquidation is becoming more accepted as an asset class, as shown by this technique. Your questions are valid and inspire investor own growth. Bitcoin should be seen as a money and an investment

There cannot be any exception to the rule that past performance does not guarantee future results because the past is the past and it is guaranteed, and the future is not guaranteed. 

The main thing that we can do in regards to the future is to assign probabilities, and the mere fact that we are able to assign high probabilities still does not make the future prediction guaranteed. 

I will concede that in several ways bitcoin has a lot of high probabilities, depending on how the questions are framed - but there are so many ways that it is not like a rock (and is a rock even guaranteed to keep its form?).. there is electricity involved, networking, computer software, various natural and man made events.. .. and even given all of that, there is quite a bit of solidness within bitcoin as compared with other manmade (or man discovered) phenomena...

I will also not deny that there is a lot of exceptionalism in regards to bitcoin, including that there is no other asset or shitcoin that even comes close to rivaling it, but still that does not make it guaranteed, it only makes it relatively better than everything else.. and so we should be able to have confidence in allocating accordingly.. even while knowing that past results do not guarantee future performance.


You even agree that bitcoin's future performance is not guaranteed.

I frequently like to suggest that we can rest assured with DCA only if we have a bit of a strong presumption that the overall trajectory of whatever asset that we are investing into (in this case bitcoin) has an upward price trajectory - and most likely to be up relative to the amount that we put into it at time that we are going to need to cash out some or all of the value that we put into it... so yeah, of course, we want to think in terms of real value rather than nominal value and we also might not exactly know our timeline, including that our timeline might end up being quite spread out 15-30 years down the road or some other ballpark ideas of a timeline in regards to when we might consider that we are planning to start cashing out of some or all of our BTC holdings... and even our planned timeline for cashing out could end up going out further or might end up getting cut short due to some emergency situation that we might get ourselves into.

The only thing I looked at is the price history whenever I see bitcoin price go down because I know it is not permanent and it will be just like that for a while and when it recovers from that kind of scenario, it always creates another ATH despite it hit the alarming price rate but most people don't know this and they get panicked easily. They use the money they can't afford to lose and some of them even take loans just to invest in bitcoins which is not recommended because you won't get the peace of mind you need when you are worried about your investment. You should just invest the amount you have and you are not planning to spend on some important matters when you follow that easy step, you should be holding peacefully no matter what the outcome of the price is for a while.

The strategy of holding cryptocurrency assets despite market fluctuations without succumbing to the temptation of short-term trading is called HODLing in the cryptocurrency world.  Although this word is a misspelling.  Still it has gained wide popularity through online.  HODLing is a strong determination that metaphorically explores the map of the HODL camp. Literally reinforces the commitment to hold Bitcoin in a strong hand so the market ups and downs represent the ups and downs.  By creating a mental map and maintaining a consistent approach, the investor can live with the promise of a long-term potential profit that addresses the volatility inherent in the crypto space.

Fuck crypto.

We are talking about bitcoin here.

There is no real evidence that supports that HODL generally applies to shitcoins.. so if you are talking about bitcoin, then yeah the idea of HODL applies because ultimately BTC is a long term investment with strong fundamentals.. so either we HODL, if we are not ready, willing and/or able to buy more or we buy more, that is if we are in BTC accumulation stages.  We can also change our strategy that does not involve as much HODL, if we have over accumulated or if we might otherwise be in a position to change our strategy a bit away from HODL, but likely even if someone might get away from accumulation stage, he still may well choose not to sell all of his bitcoin, absent some emergency kinds of situation, and if he does not have other assets / currency upon which he can draw upon first.

Agreeably, In a way, no matter how much information we gather, the future is never really definite. However, as you said, we may utilize that information to assign probabilities and arrive at well-informed conclusions. Furthermore, it appears that Bitcoin has some special characteristics that make it stand out from other assets. As an illustration, consider its scarceness and its autonomy from centralized authority. However, as you pointed out, there are no assurances.

But when we think about it, how do we go about making decisions about the future if we are unable to predict it with complete certainty? Assigning probabilities to each of the many alternative possibilities is, in my opinion, one way to come up with a solution. For instance, there are a number of potential outcomes for Bitcoin: it might take over as the primary means of transaction, be overtaken by another cryptocurrency, get banned by governments, become archaic and replaced by something else entirely, etc. Additionally, we can give each of these scenarios a probability. We can therefore still make decisions based on the probability we assign to each possible result even though we can never know for sure what will happen.

So even if we can't be 100% certain, we can still make an informed decision about how much to invest in Bitcoin, how much risk to take, etc. so when I say there's an exception, what I simply mean is that, with the facts gathered from both present and past events, the probabilities assigned to Bitcoin acting differently from it's past performances. Considering those probabilities as certainty is the risk involved in Investment. Without the risks, there won't be any rewards.

I feel comfortable with long term strategy and since I don't have huge capital I accumulate in DCA manner. What I have learn so far is that time matter a lot if you are in bitcoin. The longer you have ability to hold more is your chances of great ROI. If you don't believe that then go check yourself from previous data. There will be more risk if you are investing for short duration. With time as we invest, the more we come to know about how to accumulate bitcoin for the long term.

Of course, we can invest into bitcoin in a way in which we are not putting all of our eggs in the one basket, but still come out of the situation very much better than we would have had been if we had not invested, and I am not even suggesting to invest into anything other than bitcoin and having your shit together in regards to your cashflows, expenses, emergency fund, reserves and float, and since bitcoin is such an asymmetric bet, many of us should be able to prosper quite well by just attempting to invest as aggressively as we can without recking ourselves.

Surely a problem with poor people is that they do not have very much discretionary income, and maybe they have troubles to be able to increase their discretionary income, and even though they still will benefit from a bitcoin system, they will benefit even more personally if they can figure out ways to increase their discretionary income so that they can invest into bitcoin without recking themselves..... so the balance is not easy for some one who is poor and just getting into bitcoin with $10 per week or something like that because it can take a decently long time to build up a BTC stash when the investment amount is so low.. even though surely we can see those who invested $10 per week over the past 10 years did end up doing quite well with maybe more than $5k invested and maybe more than 4.5 BTC currently. (https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2014-01-01&finish_date=2024-02-12&regular_investment=10&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=0.02)., even if it might not have had been very clear whether an ongoing $10 per week investment would end up paying off.. and surely the earlier years of investing had more compounding effects in terms of the value appreciation of the BTC purchases.

Due to its uniqueness, Bitcoin has the potential for a significant asymmetric reward, which implies that the upside is far greater than the downside. Because of the enormous potential payoff, it is often profitable to take a chance on Bitcoin, despite the inherent risk. It's similar to playing the lottery; but with far better odds. And I couldn't agree more with you on how you pointed out that it's not just about investing in Bitcoin, it's also about having your financial life in order and making sure you're not over-extending yourself.

In my opinion Finding a way to keep up with their other financial obligations is one of the biggest challenges for anyone looking to invest in Bitcoin. It's easy to get caught up in the hype and excitement of Bitcoin and lose sight of the fact that you still need to pay your bills and have money for emergencies. To invest in Bitcoin, some people might even be tempted to take out loans or incur debt, which is not a wise move. It is crucial to keep in mind that you should never invest more money than you are willing to lose.


You've hit the nail on the head when you say that one of the most crucial elements in investing in Bitcoin is time. Your chances of getting a good return on your investment increase with the length of time you can hang onto your Bitcoin. Similar to a snowball effect, your investment will increase over time. Additionally, as you mentioned, you'll gain more knowledge on how to maximize your investment over time. The misconception that most people have when investing in Bitcoin is that it's a get-rich-quick scheme, but that's clearly not the case and that if they just start investing in Bitcoin, they'd be rich in a month or two, and this infact is the actual reason why most Bitcoin investors go into the short-term trade and they end up loosing money and giving Bitcoin a bad name, they go all in without really having the knowledge of what they are doing and then at the end incur losses for themselves. Bitcoin is more of a long-term game, and if you really wanna rip the true benefit of Bitcoin, then going long-term will definitely help you achieve that.

Holding really matters in investing in Bitcoin but it doesn't mean we have to do this our whole life. If we take a look at the price chart, prices are growing but can we think this will be the same trend in the next few years? Not for sure and it was uncertain. So I could say that holding will not be forever as it also depends on the market situation. Selling our Bitcoin during the bull season is a perfect option IMHO and get on the train back again once the market correction starts. But yes, this needs strong hands because waiting for 4 years is not as easy as people think as we need to deal our emotions as well.

Here, what we're talking about is the retirement life, particularly a successful early retirement. Life will be enjoyable when we are able to make the future comfortable. Throughout his life, he isn't sacrificing anything or holding, he's just investing €500 every month without thinking about the market situation. This has now turned into a lot of money in terms of USD. As suggested, selling at the peak and buying back is a good choice, but for people who don't want to take risks, this is also a wise choice to make a better portfolio in cryptocurrency.

I would describe asymmetric bet a bit differently.

My understanding of asymmetric bet is that if you do not use leverage, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you have invested; however, if various bullish cases for bitcoin play out, then you have chances to double, triple, 10x, 100x, 1,000x your investment, depending on your timeline and depending on how bullish bitcoin ends up playing out - in the event it does end up playing out bullishly rather than flat or bearishly.. but even if it ends up playing out flat or bearishly, you are not going to lose any more than 100% of what you had invested (so long as you do not use leverage).

So you seem to be sort of correct that when you are assessing possible outcomes for bitcoin and your investment into it, you are weighing one price direction versus the other side (down versus up), but also you should be factoring the magnitude of upside that is possible, including that you do not necessarily need to invest large portions of your wealth and still end up having potentials for benefiting greatly...

Consider some of the guys who might have invested $10k or less into bitcoin 8-12 years ago, and yeah of course, the earlier they invested the better, yet $10k for some folks might have had been a whimpy investment.. and even a $1k investment in 2012 might have gotten you close to 200 bitcoin, and surely some folks might consider that amount to have had been pretty whimpy, and so the return ended up being way more disproportionate to the upside as compared to the amount invested or the amount put at risk, even if you consider opportunity costs of the invested money and even if you consider that the money devalued over the next 8-12-ish years, depending on when the guy got into bitcoin.

So even today, the upside potential of bitcoin might well not be as great in terms of multiples and or magnitude in which BTC could appreciate - even given a potential $50k investment price, yet bitcoin's investment thesis is not weaker today, and there are some BIG institutions that are just coming into bitcoin, and they would have had never invested into bitcoin when it was lower prices because its marketcap was not enough and there were not enough other BIG players investing into bitcoin, and so these days some of the upside potential and strength of bitcoin's investment thesis is ONLY beginning to be known, which likely reinforces the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis,

even for some of the folks who might be investing into bitcoin but hardly having any clues in regards to what it is and they also may ONLY be investing into bitcoin through some kind of an investment vehicle (such as through spot BTC ETFs), merely based on the idea (someone may have told him or maybe he comes up to that idea himself) that number might go up..   I am not even suggesting that superficial ideas about bitcoin or even market sentiment would be good reasons to invest into bitcoin, even though those reasons do end up exacerbating bitcoin's likelihood to go up and even end up disproportionately putting a lot of extra upwards price pressures on bitcoin, since by law the spot BTC ETF managers have to maintain BTC holdings that match the BTC exposure that their clients have elected through the purchase of the spot BTC ETF shares that are purchased (or sold) by the client.


It is funny (and/or strange) that frequently many normal people end up devolving into gambling practices when they invest because they do not adequately understand their own finances and psychology.. and sure, maybe they don't even need to have any kind of strong psychology as long as they set up their finances in such a way that is not devolving into gambling practices..

And, so I frequently claim that an overwhelming majority of people have abilities to manage their own finances, count how much income they have versus their expenses and to ONLY invest with their extra money (disposable/discretionary income that is the difference between their income and their expenses), yet part of the problem that they run into is that they do not employ enough discipline to both 1) think through their own finances for 3-6 months into the future (and continue to project into the future) and 2) to employ practices that make sure that they maintain enough of a cash cushion so that they will never have to dip into their investment (BTC in this case), so they frequently will end up using bitcoin (or anything else that they invest into) as part of their emergency fund, which remains a form of gambling that is likely to catch up with them the longer that they try to dance such sloppiness in their own practices..and it would be within their abilities to actually fix their errors if they were to spend some time thinking through the basic kinds of money management practices and employing those kinds of basics that would be to prepare themselves to never get into trouble and be forced to have to sell some or all of their investment (bitcoin in this case) at a time that is not 100% of their own preplanning and choosing.    


Sure leverage tends to be dangerous, and it is a more advanced technique.  I am not opposed to leverage and/or taking out loans, but you have to have way to pay and service the loan that are other than being based on the anticipated price appreciation of the asset (bitcoin in this case).


So yeah.. 4-10 years or longer would be a good way to think about any bitcoin that you buy to have at least that kind of timeline, so if you are DCAing into bitcoin for 6 years straight, then your earliest BTC buys would have had reached investment timelines of 4-10 years or longer, but your latest purchases would not have had very much time to appreciate in value, so if you keep investing into BTC, then any new purchases, would also have 4-10 years or more for those later investments so you would likely see ways to measure the price appreciation of your various coins and the various purchase times, which seems to be partly what the tool of this thread would be helping longer term HODLers to be able to measure.. even though you may also have your own records and/or your own spreadsheet that might give you various numbers, but also you might be tracking your average cost per BTC which surely is different from the cost of your various BTC purchases that might end up being spread out over a decade or more.. once you are in bitcoin for a long enough time, you would likely have coins fitting in the various timeline categories - especially if you mostly held the coins rather than trading them and confusing your records.. and surely guys may end up doing a lot of things, besides merely holding their coins that may or may not end up working to their advantage if their goals might be to accumulate more BTC with the passage of time.. .


How will you know that it is time to sell?  

And what if you don't have enough bitcoin, then how is selling going to help to keep you in the right mindset for accumulation and ongoingly building of your BTC stash rather than fucking around with attempts at getting in and out that either might not pay off, or might even cause you to spend way too much waiting when you should just be accumulating BTC..

ON the other hand if you have accumulated a lot of BTC, and if they are mostly in profits, then why would anyone be trying to fuck around with selling them and trying to get back in, unless maybe they are just selling a small portion of their stash at various price points.

If you have been in BTC since around the time of your forum registration date in February 2016, then has your tactic outperformed a relatively strict DCA practice?  Do you know how to measure such a thing?

And wow.. look at your forum registration date?  In 2 days, you are coming upon 8 years registered on the forum.. and so if you had invested $100 per week over the last 8 years, you would have had invested right around $42k into BTC, and you would have had accumulated right around 13.6 BTC (https://dcabtc.com?sd=2016-02-15&sda=custom&f=weekly&d=8_years&ac=10000&c=true) (worth right around $673.2k - so clearly right around 16x price appreciation.   Even if your amounts were not the same, is your current BTC holdings valued around 16x price appreciation based on whatever you had been doing over the last 8 years?


I agree with everything you said romero121 - except we are talking about bitcoin in this thread.. so I don't know why you chose to use such a dumbass vague term, because DCA does not apply to shitcoins.. so it is difficult to know what you meant if you chose not to use the word bitcoin.  Are you talking about bitcoin or something else, and if you are talking about bitcoin, then why the fuck did you not use the word bitcoin?  fuck shitcoins.. and dumbass vague, amorphous and misleading language that does not even really communicate anything except maybe that the person that is using that dumbass word does not know what is bitcoin or they are trying to act like they are smarter, when the use of the word makes them look dumb, since DCA does not apply to shitcoins...especially not in any kind of general way.. .. and even if you try to point out any specific shitcoin, it probably would not apply to that particular shitcoin either. but you did not point out any particular shitcoin that you might have had been thinking about when you used that word perhaps to try to appear smart, when you accomplished the opposite and may have mislead some of us at the same time regarding what the fuck you are talking about.^**


Edit:  ** by the way, I just looked at your profile and your forum registration date romero121.. You have been registered here right around 9 months longer than me (long enough for a baby), and so you should know better than using dumbass, vague and misleading language.

People have different reasons and target while investing in Bitcoin with this target determining, to a large extent, how they will going about selling and managing their portfolio. While majority of Bitcoin holders are looking at the profits they can possibly make from Bitcoin, a good number of Bitcoin investors including myself, already made up our mind to HODL Bitcoin as long as we live and even pass same to the next generation. Under this premise, selling during bull run is already out of the picture even though some could consider liquidating a portion of their Bitcoin stash with the aim of reinvesting same during bear season (this being just an option some people might consider while some will sell only when they want to pull out funds for other tangible projects that their emergency funds cannot cover).

So the pattern of selling off one's Bitcoin portfolio during bull market with the hope of buying them back during bear season may be good but not for everyone. In the end, it boil down to individual preference just like I explained before.

Bitcoin investment is combination of knowledge and patience. You need to have knowledge about how to invest in Bitcoin to get good return. We have discussed many investment strategies here i.e. DCA, LUMP SUM and buying on dips. Which every strategy you adopt (or you go with all three) the key to success is patience or HODL for long term without it you wont see good results.


You already have a post where 6 different Hypo's are discussed that gives good idea of where you are if you are accumulating bitcoin for last 10 or 5 years.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg63394117#msg63394117

Investors that have the experience and that had been holding for a long time could attest that it pays to hold but that might not be easy for everyone that is a Bitcoin investor. It takes courage for us to keep seeing our holding losing value continuously without knowing whether to sell to keep the remaining lost or to keep holding.

Although not all holdings are profitable so we need to know what we are doing so that we don't invest our funds in a bad project that will not make us to finally lose our funds. This is why Bitcoin is the only project in the crypto market that can give us what will want although the risk is also there for us to choose whether to be a long term holders or short term holders.

Those that purchased Bitcoin at the beginning did, in fact, receive a very disproportionate return on their investment. Regarding opportunity cost, I totally agree. Even if someone bought Bitcoin with money that they could have invested in something else, the return on their Bitcoin investment would likely be much higher than the return they would have gotten on that other investment. Of course, all of this is hypothetical.

It is impossible to predict with certainty what would have happened if someone had chosen to invest in something other than Bitcoin. However, considering Bitcoin's potential return on investment in contrast to other viable options, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or other assets, is still an intriguing thought. It's possible that Bitcoin has occasionally performed significantly better than those other investments. For instance, during the last ten years, the S&P 500 has returned roughly 7% annually on average, but during the same period, Bitcoin has gained over 200% annually on average.

Naturally, past performance does not guarantee future success, and as Bitcoin is far more erratic than the stock market, its returns can vary greatly from year to year. But there is certainly a chance for an enormous return on investment.

The power of compounding rewards is another intriguing point to consider. Compounding allows the return on your investment to gradually increase over time. For example, if you invest $1,000 and get a 10% return, you'll have $1,100 at the end of the year. But if you reinvest that $1,100 and get another 10% return, you'll have $1,210 at the end of the second year. And so it goes on and on. Therefore, the compounding effects of Bitcoin's returns may have led to a significantly higher gain over time than someone might have predicted, even if they had only invested a little amount of money. For instance, if a person had invested just $100 in 2010 and HODLED their BITCOIN, they would have accumulated over $300,000 by the end of 2021. Even if that's a very specific and uncommon situation, it's still intriguing to think about how Bitcoin investors' performance might have been influenced by compounding gains.


Rightly said, every investor (Both Bitcoin as well as other assets) needs both knowledge and patience. It's not enough to just buy Bitcoin and hope for the best, you need to understand the market and the technology behind it because if you're not fully equipped with the knowledge you need to make certain decisions, you'll be exposed to lots of dangers that is capable of negatively impacting your investment and you might end up making wrong decisions and putting your investment in jeopardy.

 And you're also right that the key to success is often HODLing for the long term, rather than trying to time the market or make quick profits and it takes a great deal of patience to HODL. This is a lesson that many new Bitcoin investors learn the hard way.

It is hard to rest on my laurels, and yeah sometimes I feel that I should put some of the ideas or structure of my prior posts into my investment ideas thread, so that I don't need to repeat work that I had already done.

For example, I am kind of proud of a post that I just did in regards to the compounding effects of bitcoin over the past 8-9 years.  Here's the relevant part.



So far in bitcoin's history it has been a good practice for BTC accumulators to just continue to buy and to reassess from time to time in terms of how aggressive that they are able to continue to buy, and maybe after 4 years or so (a full cycle) of buying, you might start to get some ideas about whether (and if so how) to adjust the previously employed BTC accumulation strategies.  Of course, there are no guarantees, so it is probably best to figure out some kind of a buying pattern that is comfortable, and even though history does not guarantee future results, there are not real and/or meaningful signs that bitcoin's investment thesis if getting any weaker (rather than stronger) over the coming years.


Yeah.. fuck shitcoins.. stick with bitcoin... don't be fucking around with imitations or diversification or some other bullshit distracting and lame investing/gambling/trading ideas that lure you into failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately stack bitcoins in as aggressive as a way that you can without over doing it.


If you don't know about whether to be a short term or a long term holder of bitcoin, then you likely need to learn about bitcoin, but if you don't know very much about bitcoin and you are concerned about your bitcoin investment, then probably you should tamper down your investment in order that you don't panic... and so it is better to buy and hold a long time rather than overdoing it and then having to sell your BTC at a time that is anything other than your own choosing.


When we are looking at past performance of various portfolios it is not hypothetical to compare them, even though we could take hypothetical examples, or we could even compare our own performance to a hypothetical example, such as someone who might have DCA'd into BTC versus if he had invested in some other various kinds of investment opportunities that he might have had at various points in time.

Surely, we cannot go back in time and change what we did, but we can choose the extent to which we might want to be aggressive in our bitcoin investment now or the extent to which we might want to employ a more aggressive bitcoin investment strategy - and we still might end up making mistakes because we cannot necessarily know the extent to which any strategy that we start to employ now might pay off - yet if we are ongoingly assessing our own situation and we are attempting to employ good practices, we likely would end up improving the chances that our investments would pay off over the passage of time, especially if we make sure to include (and maybe even prioritize) bitcoin accumulation into what we are doing...and maybe even more important for those who either don't have any bitcoin or do not have very many bitcoin. 


When it comes to history, if you know their budget then you can plot out what would have happened in terms of if you are describing some kind of a buying strategy, but if you are going from right now, you don't necessarily know what is going to happen, but you can still create a buying approach that increases your likelihood for success, especially if you are able to establish some kind of an investment timeline that is 4-10 years or longer. 

If you investment timeline is shorter than 4 years, then maybe you should not be investing in bitcoin, but hey people can do what they like.


Sure, something like that.  When I look at my own investment portfolio prior to bitcoin and see my bitcoin performance in the past 10 years, my traditional portfolio came close to doubling, and my bitcoin holdings had gone up around 52x, and yeah there is going to be variation in terms of how much anyone might be able to put into any asset, and I did a bit of a run down of my own allocations between late 2013 and mid-2022 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591).. I have not updated it in the last 18 months... but maybe I will in the future... and the bitcoin portion smoked everything else.


Bitcoin likely remains amongst the best, if not the best current investment, and guys can choose their own path, including their own allocation choices.  And, yeah, it is not guaranteed, but it remains very sound money, if any of us might not have had noticed.


Yep.. compounding is very powerful especially if we might well be considering doublings in value, as I posted on it earlier today.. and referred to it above in my response to MusaPk.

These are some of the pivotal aspects of Bitcoin that I want a lot of people to understand. The kind of perception we had about Bitcoin earlier was that it was a get-rich-quick money platform where you just put in some funds and tomorrow you expect it to grow bigger than normal. But that was not the case.

The truth is that Bitcoin is just like any other asset out there. It grows over time as the market is being patronized. The only difference that Bitcoin has over centralized currencies online is that it is a decentralized platform or asset where people jointly contribute to the growth and development of each, and also to the uptrend of the market, rather than just a government or a few sort of people deciding the fate of the currency.

This is, in fact, the reason why Bitcoin would continue to be an outstanding advancement in the financial technologies sector. Because the world is moving towards a world of freedom where individuals can have financial freedom and breakthrough through their own means, not influenced by a few people in the government or so. But many of us, like myself, thought Bitcoin was a get-rich-quick money platform where you just sink in some funds and expect magic to happen tomorrow.

 And as we were studying the processes over time, we came to realize that that was not the case. Because this kind of situation creates fear in your mind and there are just misconceptions that were probably propaganda flagged by the government so that people would be discouraged from the use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

But because of the consistency of Bitcoin and how it has grown over time, which the decentralization has really helped in the longevity of the currency and how it has been able to stand the test of time, now the government cannot fully lay out campaigns that would negate the use of Bitcoin because people have become more knowledgeable and gaining more understanding of what Bitcoin stands for. And it has grown over time. For those that have believed in the process, at those very critical moments that Bitcoin needed people to believe in it, they are the users that have benefited immensely today. Indeed, everything in life needs consistency.

Your right that mate everyone of us know that holding is not for our whole life which is we need to matter the situation like the market we need to study first before we are going to hold a coins cause if we hold a bad coins then we will loss our money,. Unlike we hold a good and trusted coins even though the price will go up and down then for sure in the future we will have a good profit.  Also we need self discipline and self control in holding cause the price is volatile which is it will change every now and then. So we need to do some research if we are going to sell our coins or still we will hold it.

Bitcoin is the king coin of cryptocurrencies and is considered by some to be a great investment vehicle.
 Like you said @JayJuanGee, there are no guarantees or guarantees on Bitcoin.  Its price depends on market changes and has high volatility, which means you are at risk of losing your money.  Is it an good decision to invest in Bitcoin again?

What OP said is okay; as long as you want to hold on long-term, follow what you want to do. But of course, you should first know what you are trying to invest in in the crypto space. We have a lot to choose from besides Bitcoin because there are other top altcoins on the market.

Holding long-term is also important because if we don't have enough knowledge, this is the safest thing to do so that we can make a profit while we know or study whether it is Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency.

My view may be wrong but I think it is a use case for bitcoin. Bitcoin gives people freedom with their decisions and actions. You're probably referring to the early stages of bitcoin's popularity. Yes, I think the bitcoin story has really changed the world, currently the assets are 1000 billion and with the current position and development, no one wants to sell their bitcoins quickly. Whether they expect much or not, that is also the result they want. From bitcoin make money the way they want. Surely that is the mindset that each person must be aware of when buying bitcoin to use, invest, pay, keep assets...

This is something badly required. All your previous posts must be gathered at one central place for quick reference. i have to spend time finding that 6 Hypo's post and that can be avoided if there is a central place where all posts are residing.


This is an excellent chart for anyone who want to see how your Bitcoin value increases with time or see the Bitcoin compounding effect over a period of 10 years. We don't know what's coming ahead but this price chart is clear indication that something big will be coming in next few years. I will also bookmark this post like the 6 Hypo's post for ready reference.
With such data in hand, one must not worried about future price of Bitcoin. You just need to invest in Bitcoin (lump sum, dca or buying on dips) then all you need is patience to HODL that for at least 5 years. It's not that complicated.

You seem to be comparing bitcoin to shitcoins, and surely in my earlier comments, I was not considering shitcoins - and if anything, I was comparing bitcoin to any investment category of asset and/or currency, so the other traditional asset classes that any of us might consider to include in our investment portfolio would be equities (such as stocks), property, commodities, bonds and/or cash or cash equivalents. .not referring to shitcoins.

Your decision about whether to invest into bitcoin or to continue to invest into bitcoin might partly relate to whether you already have any, and if you don't have any, then surely it seems that everyone should be considering at least getting off zero and probably allocating 5% to 25% of their quasi-liquid investment portfolio into bitcoin. .. and surely each person has to choose for themselves in regards to both the questions of whether to invest into bitcoin and if so then, how much. 

There are surely a lot of people in the world that do not have any investments, and they also might be living in such a way that they might not have very much income that exceeds their expenses, and so surely, people who do not have much if any investments based on their relatively low level of discretionary/disposable income, they will need to make sure that the are taking from their discretionary/disposable income, and sometimes they might need to attempt to increase their income and to cut their expenses and if they are not used to investing into anything then they also may need to increase their emergency fund, cash reserves and/or cash float so that they will never have to sell any of their investment  (into bitcoin in this case) at a time that is anything other than completely their own choosing.


Fuck shitcoins.

We are talking about bitcoin in this thread, so who cares that there exists a bunch of shitcoins that you could choose from, unless you are inclined towards gambling.


Sure, there are a lot of people who are confused about bitcoin versus various shitcoins, but they probably don't really know what bitcoin is, and so then they get confused about what they should invest into.  Hopefully, if someone learns about bitcoin first and invests into bitcoin, then at least if s./he decides to venture into various shitcoins and to gamble, then at least he started with bitcoin first. 

Another thing is that if you are so damned tempted to gamble on various shitcoins, then if you at least limit your allocations into shitcoins to less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment, then at least you will have placed some boundaries upon the level of your distractions and temptations... but yeah, there are a lot of folks who cannot limit their temptations to gamble to something like less than 10%, so they will likely have to learn by getting burnt, even if their goals might have been to invest, they might not have either learned the difference between investing and gambling, and they are exercising practices to reinforce their continued failure/refusal to learn how to invest rather than to gamble.. and that there is actually a meaningful difference.

Yes, you are right, and it could only take people like us who have had a good knowledge about cryptocurrencies to know the difference about investing and gambling as regards to crypto, and by that I mean (i.e buying Bitcoin = Investing) due to it's low volatility likely to increase in value when hold over a longer period of time, whereas (i.e buying shitcoins = Gambling) due to it's high volatility nature, likely to either skyrocket so high, low or probably crash, depending on the nature of project and market support. Hence, it remains a wise decision people keep a handful of their investment into Bitcoin (above 90%), while they gamble not more than 10% on coins with a strong social media presence and total supply not more than 20 millions coins.

You can learn a lot about and refine your strategy by comparing historical portfolios, (your own or others'), to hypothetical portfolios. It's also interesting to consider the potential earnings if one had chosen to invest in Bitcoin at different times rather than other assets. This could be a helpful exercise to weigh the possible risks and rewards of potential future investments.

It's not just about buying and selling in the short term to try and make a quick profit, but rather about making a commitment to accumulating Bitcoin over time, understanding that the true potential of the technology may not be fully realized by using the short-term approach.

In the early days of Bitcoin, there were a lot of people who were drawn to the idea of getting rich quick by investing in this new and mysterious technology. These were often referred to as "get rich quick" investors, and they tended to focus on short-term gains rather than the long-term potential of the technology. However, over time, the market has matured, and many people have realized that Bitcoin is a long-term investment, and that to really see the benefits, you need to be patient and committed to accumulating over time, but a lot investors are still myopic about this fact and still holding on to the old and outdated technique of Bitcoin investment.

I doubt that it is a good framework to suggest that bitcoin investors are more mature now than they were in the past, because there were surely a lot of people who got into bitcoin for the tech and maybe they also ended up getting rich along the way, yet it is not fair to generalize about the gambling tendencies improving because there are always going to be gamblers and there are always going to be different types of investors..and even the new players who might be very rich, they may well also make a lot of the same mistakes that earlier investors made - and I would still suggest that we are very early stages to bitcoin, even though we also know that bitcoin is continuing to get stronger the longer and longer that it exists including that bitcoin's network effects (referring to the 7 network effects described by Trace Mayer (https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-seven-network-effects-of-bitcoin/)) are continuing to grown. 

It is difficult to know what level of adoption bitcoin has, and I have my doubts that it has even reached 1% of the world's population, even though we have rich folks and rich institutions currently coming into bitcoin, including some of them entering through the newly approved Spot ETFs.  These guys are neither imuned from gambling tendencies or making mistakes of the past, including but not limited to mistakes made that led up to a lot of the 2022 cascading crashes of Terra/Luna, Celsius, Blockfi, 3AC, Voyager, FTX, Alameda Research,  Genesis (perhaps involving Grayscale) and probably some others that I am forgetting about...

I don't include Binance in my criticisms, even though Binance and CZ were persecuted and likely coopted by the US Govt.. which who knows exactly how that is going to play out, and it appears just a few days ago CZ's sentencing was delayed for 2 months until the end of April.

https://www.ccn.com/news/binance-founder-czs-sentencing-pushed-back-reasons-unknown/

Indeed, there isn't a precise metrics to gauge how widely Bitcoin is adopted. Some may choose to consider the quantity of daily transactions or the number of Bitcoin wallets that are currently in use. However, these gauges are limited to certain factors.

However, despite its rather low adoption rate, Bitcoin is nevertheless having a significant effect on the financial system. For instance, the collapse of FTX has effects in both the traditional finance and cryptocurrency sectors. Therefore, even if just a small portion of people use Bitcoin, its impact is far bigger than that statistic would imply.

 Well, I think On the one hand, Bitcoin has been around for more than a decade now, and it's had a number of major price fluctuations, crashes, and comebacks. So it's certainly not a new technology. However, until it becomes  commonly used for transactions, there is still a long way to go. As of right now, the majority of its users are investors; regular people use it less frequently for tasks like paying bills or buying groceries. Therefore, I believe it to be in the middle of the "early" and "mature" areas.

It also appears that ignorance of the underlying technology contributed to some of the mistakes committed in the past. For instance, the Terra/Luna scenario resulted from a crash caused by an algorithmic stablecoin design error. Also, FTX's inability to accurately account for customer deposits was a contributing factor in their bankruptcy. I don't really think there are many fundamental flaws with Bitcoin itself, I believe it's more about how it's being implemented, which I believe could be readjusted as the day goes by.

Of course, imprecise in terms of both measuring the number of actual people - and then also figuring out the extent to which bitcoin might be fractionally reserved in a variety of ways since some of the BIG bitcoin wallets are connected to various 3rd party custodians, such as exchanges or various financial product providers (ETFs and those kinds of institutions)...

So we surely have measures in regards to how much adoption is increasing in a variety of ways and we can infer usage from quite a few of the various metrics, including make inferences about the kinds of users through tracing some of the histories of wallets... and perhaps even identifying various black holes with lightning network private and public channels that may or may not be traceable... and maybe i am not quibbling as much about these kinds of matters with you, even though I am quibbling with your overall assertion that there are fewer gamblers in bitcoin now and even that there are more adults in the room because the BIGGER players are coming into the picture, and surely your assertion is NOT totally untrue, but I don't like it because it is seeming to generalize too much and to accept too many mainstream characterizations that even implicitly criticize earlier adopters for being gambler types and immature - even though there is some truth in it, I still consider it to be an unfair picture, including that it seems to imply that richer players and institutions are not acting like that (when they are able to, and sometimes subtly scandalously and also playing with others money, too)... and sure maybe in the end, I am quibbling over relatively small details since we largely don't disagree.


The mere fact that bitcoin has a lot of large impacts also goes towards various attempts to manipulate it and to use it in a variety of ways and spread misinformation.. so, even though I agree that there are all kinds of disproportionate impacts that bitcoin is having, there is also all kinds of misinformation pieces out there that characterize bitcoin in negative ways and continue to disproportionately negatively affect normies from getting into bitcoin when they should... so probably since I got in, there have been all kinds of characterization that bitcoin is growing too fast and its mature and all kinds of bullshit that cause a lot of normies to conclude that they are too late and even if they invest into bitcoin, they are also quick to pull out because they wrongly conclude that any continued upwards price movements are not sustainable.. I hate to create any impression that bitcoin is anywhere close to mature or to imply that people have missed the boat or two suggest that bitcoin's irresponsible days are over. . or that even bitcoin's ongoing violent volatility (in either direction) is over.. even though surely more and more rich people are getting into bitcoin in attempts to front run retail and normies..

but so far the numbers of entrance of even the rich people into bitcoin are still relatively small even though it is seeming like it is BIG... and also there likely are a small numbers of the rich folks and institutions that truly are stocking up on bitcoin (like Saylor - outwardly open about it).. and so those who are coming to bitcoin earlier are still able to front run a lot of normies (retail) and also able to front-run a lot of institutions, including blackrock, even though surely Blackrock is currently publicly ongoingly taking BiG chunks of bitcoin and surely anyone still acquiring bitcoin right now is lucky that the BTC price is not moving up as fast as it could be, even though the window to 5 digit bitcoin may well end up ending soon.. and surely no guarantees.. . .but it seems that any newbies should be ongoingly striving to get as many bitcoin as they can while 5 digit prices last, whether that is the next month or two or maybe it could last for another whole cycle (such as 4 years), but I have my doubts.


Failure of incentives to transact is not completely the fault of bitcoin, and so if countries are unfriendly to bitcoin, then they impose disincentives in regards to transacting in bitcoin... Technically, it pretty easy to transact with bitcoin.

So criticizing bitcoin for its ease of transactability, or lack thereof is more likely a political problem.. and sure there also can be some claims that bitcoin fees are too high, yet there are likely some less than organic forces pushing that direction... so surely, a lot of smaller players might be discouraged to adopt bitcoin because of fee matters and confusion about fee matters and confusion about how to hold their coins without creating hundreds of $10 transactions.

Bitcoin's stronger value proposition has to do with the difficulties to censor it.. which is quite threatening to various powers that be that don't like people to have freedom or privacy and they want to get into the middle of transactions to be able to try to control them and to extract value from the transactions, and so in a variety of regards battles are going to continue, but it is not going to stop richer people from trying to front run retail, when bitcoin is more likely a tool for poor people rather than rich people, even though rich people are in a better place to take advantage of it and also not to be discouraged by misinformation regarding the ongoing needs to send $10 transactions on chain...

So yeah there are likely going to continue to be barriers towards both adoption and poor people realizing that bitcoin is something that they should be acquiring.. and likely even a lot of current bitcoin holders are low coiners who don't realize that they don't have enough bitcoin, even though you don't necessarily need a lot of it, but still there are advantages to actually realizing that bitcoin is no where near to a mature asset class in terms of adoption or a variety of important variables, even though there are some bitcoin hoarders who are pushing up the prices for everyone else and some of those bitcoin hoarders (the rich folks) might also be contributing to various negative dynamics that put informational and even financial obstacles in front of normies, no coiners and low coiners in terms of benefits that they would get from getting more bitcoin price exposure and/or owning bitcoin directly.


I am tempted to say that is a dumb framing, even though you are not wrong.  Anyone who is wanting to get into bitcoin and to benefit from it better start accumulating it and as much as they can.. like an investor and/or like a speculator. and yeah surely down the road more and more abilities are going to continue to develop... and yeah, these problems have existed in bitcoin since I got in and maybe even merchants who adopt the ability to receive bitcoin and then give up and some of them got screwed by having hundreds of $10 or less transactions that might be currently difficult (and maybe even financially unfeasible to move)... but so what?  I think these dynamics continue to show bitcoin as early days and sometimes having both forward and backwards steps, and it is difficult to expect that progress is going to be continuous and linear.. even though BTC price growth is exponential, especially if you look at it from 2012 to present.. or even if you might choose some other dates and zoom out a bit beyond various ongoing persistent short-term dilemmas.


Maybe I forgot to say fuck crypto.. we should be trying to focus on bitcoin here.. but yeah, there are various kinds of gamblers related to bitcoin and scammers and it is likely that that dick-twat Kwon Do already knew about the technological problems in both the way that he designed his scam coin, the way he marketed it and the way that he supposedly bought bitcoin to peg the value.  and gamblers are going to gamble and scammers are going to scam.. and when there are all kinds of potential for loop holes for pyramid schemes for rug pulling regulars, including that likely venture capitalists (such as Mike Novogratz with that Terra/Luna tatoo) twats were part of various aspects of these kinds of scams that got their money in early, pumped the shitcoin project and got a lot of their money out prior to regular folks who some of the regular folks got burnt more than others and sure some rich people got burnt in it too. but there have been systemized ways to pump scams in the "crypto" and bitcoin space, which is probably not so much a criticism of bitcoin, even though bitcoin does empower the abilities of scammers to scam..so you better be careful.. and you might or might not end up on the right side of the crash. .which I think my earlier examples have those kinds of stories in which some individuals have been able to escape getting reckt and others not.. which also is likely not going away in this upcoming cycle. merely because there are perceptions that adults are in the room.. but the bigger players also try to fuck around with systems, so they are going to fuck around and find out with bitcoin too.. and we will find out the extent to which bitcoin is able to sustain the ongoing fuckery that is likely to continue in similar ways, different ways and even ways that are still to be learned(discovered).


Surely they did not even have bitcoin... and they were faking value by printing their own coin (FTT).. which ended up coming to bite them in the ass fairly rapidly, and the level of shenanigans and likely insider dealing that includes people who have not been prosecuted and held to account continues.. so let's see what happens with that slimy little unsympathetic virtue signaling narcissistic twat.. SBF.


Bitcoin is decentralized and open source, so it is likely best to consider it in terms of it is what it is.. instead of thinking about if it could be implemented in some other way.. it is not really being implemented (except maybe it was implemented in 2008, 2009 and maybe into 2010 until satoshi disappeared. and thereafter, it was left to exist and to be developed upon.. .. so yeah, people will find ways to use it or to build upon it.. and to propose changes that may or may not end up getting adopted... some people might be more influential than others, so if you think something needs to be implemented or changed, then you can make proposals.. or to try to make changes that build upon bitcoin. . or other possibilities is to fork bitcoin into another form an try to get people to come over to your fork..

Alts are launched with so many attractive features. They roam around for sometimes and then lost in the darkness forever. I had a crush on MATIC (POLYGON) last year after reading its features like side chains, low fees and more. The token is still there but wasn't able to take off despite so much marketing about its attractive features and now the team is launching new token with new features to generate more capital. The story may be different for other alts but the aim of all Alts are more or less same. There is no Alt that has survived the length of Bitcoin.

You have rightly understood that investment is necessary for every person, according to our status we should invest according to what principles.  Investing is critical to building wealth and powering financial stability.  In my view the ones that have the potential to give higher returns are shares, focusing in bonds is a more consistent source of income, but the returns are lower.

In Bitcoin  If we use a good strategy and professional investment method, we can get good profit in short period of time, but the higher the profit, the higher the risk.

You are spreading false information in what seems like a gambler's mentality.  

You do not necessarily need to take a lot of risks in order to gain a lot of profits (especially with something like bitcoin and/or with any other asset that is a good asymmetric bet/investment), even though you might have to make sure that whatever risks that you are taking, in terms of the level of your aggressiveness in terms of investing into bitcoin would not cause you to end up losing your bitcoin because you either did not have your expenses adequately covered or you might have been "betting" on the price going only in the UP direction within a certain timeframe that you would be needing back some or all of the money that you had invested.

The meaning of a non-leveraged asymmetric bet would be that the most that you can lose is 100% of your investment amount, yet at the same time there may well be many multiples of your investment amount as potential profit amounts.  So someone who had $100,000 in 2015 might have had decided to invest 10% into bitcoin, right around the time that bitcoin was $250.

So that $10k would have gotten him 40 BTC, and right now throw 40BTC would have a spot price value of a bit more than $2 million.  I would not consider investing 10% in 2015 to be taking a lot of risk, and sure the guy could have lost the whole $10k.

Right now the surrounding facts might be different, yet bitcoin seems to continue to be a good asymmetric bet to the upside, so people have choices about how to deal with that factor, including they can do nothing or they could choose to accumulate BTC with DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.

Right now everyone is happy with Bitcoin price as its going up (52k$ as I am writing). But not everyday is Sunday, there can be times when Bitcoin goes bearish and it can last for months. What should be the strategy during that bearish season and what to do when Bitcoin goes bullish? These are all questions one has to address when investing in Bitcoin. One can answer these questions only if he has sound knowledge about Bitcoin.
Also one don't need to study books or go for extensive study to understand Bitcoin. There are very simple scenarios out there that tells how Bitcoin has behaved over a period of time. Based on these scenarios one can easily define his future strategy.

One scenario is JayJuanGee 6 different Hypo's that gives idea of accumulating Bitcoin for 5 to 10 years in DCA manner.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg63394117#msg63394117

I just added a link to the above linked post, since yesterday - in this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590), I clarified Hypos 1-6 and added scenarios for Hypos 7-15 (which largely bring down the timeline with Hypos 7-9 as 2.5 years, Hypos 10-12 as 1.25 years and Hypos 13-15 as newbie status.

Even though the overall theme is to attempt to show both how the difference of time can play out, but also how the difference in wealth at the time of getting started with bitcoin, I realize that some of the information might be a bit too confusing for some people to follow, so I may go back through the Hypos from time to time to try to edit and clarify the presentation of the contents. 

You are correct that they all use DCA, but also ONLY the wealthiest incorporates both lump sum and DCA, since he can.. the others are exclusively DCA.  The wealthiest who starts out with both DCA and lump sum is reflected in Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13.  The medium only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 2, 5, 8, 11 & 14.  The poorest only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 3, 6, 9, 12 & 15.

Mate, you raise a very good point. In fact, one of the most popular pieces of advise offered to novice Bitcoin investors is to wait for a bear market and purchase at lower prices rather than making a purchase during a bull market. This is due to the fact that Bitcoin prices frequently rise sharply during bull markets before plunging once again during bear markets. Of course, timing the market isn't always simple, and there's no assurance that the price will rise again following a collapse.

However, this method may have a flaw in that it takes a lot of patience. The price of Bitcoin might decline for several months or even years in a bear market. So, this might not be a good choice for those trying to make a quick profit. It's also important to remember that not everyone who obtains Bitcoin does so with the intention of investing in it; some use it for other things, like making purchases or sending money internationally. Therefore, while waiting for a bear market can make sense for some people, it might not be the best course of action for others.




I appreciate the effort you've put by  taking the time to clarify this. It can be tricky to present complex information in a way that's understandable and easy to follow. I appreciate you also taking the time to go back to edit the Hypos, and I think your approach of separating them into three different categories based on the wealth of the person is really helpful. Could you tell me more about why you chose to include lump sum and DCA strategies in the wealthy category, and only DCA in the other?
Not just me, I believe some other persons would be curious to know.

If anyone is giving advice to newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) to wait rather than getting the fuck started, then that would not be good advice.  That would likely be bad advice, even though people can do whatever they like in terms of their own level of preparedness for UPpity that may or may not happen. 

In other words, you are not prepared for UPpity at all if you either do not have any coins or if you are low on coins (by definition if you are a low coiner you are not sufficiently/adequately prepared for up).  The most practical way to prepare for UP is by having some coins.. even though there could be some other ways that might be less efficient to get some (or perhaps a sufficient/adequate) BTC price exposure to be prepared for up.


Where are you presuming bitcoin to be right now?  Bull or bear? and which part? and how do you know?


There are no guarantees and yeah you cannot time the market, so part of the reason to get started right away, even though you cannot really know if the BTC price might go up or down from the specific BTC price point in which you get started.  If you think that you have some theories about price direction, you could adjust the amount of your invested amount at your entrance point and you can attempt to assess your level of preparedness for either UP or DOWN based on your own circumstances.. and surely, it is important to be prepared for both UP and for DOWN, but if you have no coins, you are only preparing for UP, which surely would be problematic and not advisable, even though people are free to do whatever they like (including sitting around like a dummy), even if it ends up being wrong.


Waiting for down that might not happen is not a demonstration of patience, it is demonstration of dumbness.

 :D :D :D :D


That is true.  But it might not, too. It might go up and never come back to these prices ever again. Which is more likely and are you prepared for either?  Hopefully you are prepared for either rather than just waiting for one side and that side may well not end up happening.


4-10 years or longer might be a good idea for anyone just getting started... so yeah, shorter terms might just be gambling, even though if you have an investment timeline of less than 4 years, then maybe you could just adjust your position size downwardly in order to account for your being a trader rather than an investor.


Sure.. not everyone is an investor.... so those kinds of situations are going to have a lot of variables.  A part of the reason that it is easier to talk about investment theses in bitcoin is to understand bitcoin in that sense, even though surely you are correct that there are a variety of short term use cases, and there are also some people who are good at trading, but those kinds of people should be able to figure out their shit themselves.. or maybe go to threads that talk about those kinds of topics..


I appreciate any comments, feedback and/or criticisms of those hypos.. so yeah, thanks for looking through them.

Yesterday when I went back to them, I was having a little bit of difficulty remembering why I had created them in the first place, and I had thought that they had some other information in them, so I was a bit frustrated when I needed to add a summary regarding the results of each of the categories. 

I believe that my initial idea in creating the categories in the way that I did was because once the frameworks were established, then guys should be able to extrapolate other kinds of results.. but the main points were being made that involve showing how various investment approaches would vary over time, and of course, I wanted to be able to mostly emphasize ongoing DCA into each of the models because historically it has remained an important constant in bitcoin that can be measured in terms of its historical results, and I still believe that historical results does not guarantee future results, even though we can see through the various hypotheticals where guys would currently be based on varying timelines and perhaps whether they might have had some abilities to lump sum invest and/or DCA.. and most people should be able to employ some version of DCA as long as they have some discretionary/disposable income.

There surely are going to be some guys who would have had been able to beat strict variations of DCA, even within the timelines of the given hypotheticals, and so I don't have any problems with that, but I do have some problems with guys making arguments that proclaim some kind of generally applicable system that involves suggestions that they are able to beat DCA.. or they have it all figured out when to buy and when not to buy, and to suggest that newbie normies should follow such systems that they are likely not even able to articulate with any kind of clarity, and likely more than 90% of people are not even capable of developing some kind of a BTC trading system that would match or beat some variation of ongoing consistent buying that involves DCA, especially over longer periods of time such as when we are getting into 5-10 year timelines.

Sure there are ways to trade and even be profitable and even to be able to consistently beat the market or to beat some kind of a strict DCA approach, but those tend to be both specialized people and also not applicable to around 90% of the population who might not have time and/or abilities to engage in such tactics or to learn such tactics.

I find it remarkable that you paid attention to the emotional side of investing. This is very significant, yet I believe it is frequently ignored. DCA can help you control your emotions and make more logical decisions during the sometimes difficult and emotional process of investing. I think that fostering discipline is another way that DCA may assist with the emotional side of investing. It can assist you in staying true to your goal and preventing hasty decisions because you're investing a fixed sum of money on a regular basis.

The way you addressed the issue of those who believe they can "time the market" with Bitcoin or any other investment is also very impressive. These assertions contain a great deal of survivorship bias: individuals who timed the market well will talk about it a lot, while those who didn't will probably say less. Since most people are unable to time the market effectively, DCA can help reduce the risk associated with attempting to do so. I really appreciate how you make the point that it's not reasonable to anticipate that beginners will create a profitable trading method. DCA is a considerably more approachable and controllable tactic.

Hypo-7 With 86 Bitcoins one should feel comfortable that he has adequate number of Bitcoins. Its a good position but to reach there you must have good amount of starting capital.

Hypo-9 This is where person like me fits in i.e. 100 dollars per week. For me if I have 0.5 Bitcoins in the 2.5 years then that's not a bad deal. Since we are investing 100$ per week.
 

All Hypo's are excellent way to understand different scenarios of investing into Bitcoin. It's just about spending some time and effort.
Kudos to your effort of editing it with time to time.  


I am happy that I am in Hypo 7 i.e. the one where wealthiest lies.

It does seem that you understand these hypotheticals fairly well MusaPk, yet you and I are still interpreting the situations differently, and perhaps part of the reason remains that I am striving to incorporate several investment presumptions that I consider to be best (or better) practices, while also leaving a bit of latitude into the hypotheticals and at the same time showing the role of DCA in each of the scenarios.

Accordingly, we should attempt to recognize both some of our assumptions about Hypo 7, and also appreciate where his BTC portfolio is in comparison to how much he has invested, and surely we should be able to recognize and appreciate that even someone with 2.5 years invested into bitcoin has not had enough time for his BTC's value to really begin to show the power of compounding - so in some sense you seem to be getting overly distracted by the quantity of BTC accumulated rather than where the BTC holdings are in comparison to the historical performance of this asset class.  Yeah, of course, I am neither saying that history is going to repeat itself or that there are guarantees to future performance - yet I am saying that over the last 2.5 years, this Hypo 7 guy has been building up his BTC holdings within his own capacities and surely the evidence should support that 2.5 years is hardly enough time in the market whether we are talking about continuing to build a BTC holdings and/or considering a time in which starting to cash out (versus something like BTC portfolio maintanence) would be amongst reasonable/prudent and/or longer term investor kinds of considerations.

Again, let's look more specifically at what kind of guy Hypo 7 is (which in my series of hypos should be relatively similar to Hypos 1, 4, 10 & 13, even though his main difference would be how much time in the market he had and also perhaps his perception of BTC market status that differs from Hypos 1, 4, 10 & 13 because the BTC market would have had been in a different place for each of these guys as compared to the others, which surely should have some kind of an effect on the initial stages of their BTC investing approach).   In this particular case, Hypo 7 likely came into bitcoin 2.5 years ago with a goal to get his BTC investment amount to be somewhere between 5% and 25% of his overall investment portfolio holdings, and surely these guys - set 1 of Hypos (1, 4, 7, 10 & 13) - share a kind of presumption that they have already established a decent-size investment portfolio, so they are ready, wiling and/or able to lump sum invest into bitcoin, which is not likely the case with the other two sets of hypos - either set 2 of Hypos (2, 5, 8, 11 & 14).  or set 3 of Hypos (3, 6, 9, 12 & 15).  And, from my point of view, they are also better off to figure out ways to DCA into bitcoin as well as their lump sum entrance.. and surely DCA could be something steady and/or it could also be supplemented with buying on dips.. which may be an extra side budget and might not exactly fit into a DCA definition.. even though sometimes the practices of DCA and buying on dips could end up playing off on each other in terms of how much a person might want to buy at any given time; however for the sake of these kinds of hypotheticals, I am largely attempting to avoid fucking around with too many variables (that would involve buying on dips) and so it is much easier to project a kind of general average amount of purchase by use of historical DCA estimations... using historical DCA estimations likely makes the results more pure and objective rather than attempts at overly spinning results in terms of figuring out when a guy might have had figured out that we were in a dip or we were not in a dip, which those kinds of measurements would be all over the place.

So, if this Hypo 7 guy is aiming for 5% to 25% of his investment portfolio to be in BTC, there could be decent presumptions that he should have had been able to reach his target levels somewhere between 1-2 years, unless some guys might hold back somewhat in their in getting to their full BTC investment allocation target level based on their own views of what they might believe the BTC market to do - which surely hardly should be the case of the last 2.5 years, especially since this particular timeline ends up involving both a top and a pretty damned BIG correction right in the midst of it, so there could well be some presumptions that these kinds of guys would have ended up meeting whatever their BTC investment allocation target levels within 1-2 years and even more so within 2.5 years - yet at the same time, we can see that the Hypo 7 guys is still not even in profits, when it comes to measuring the value of his holdings in terms of the 200-week moving average. He has invested $3 million, but in terms of the 200-WMA, his holdings are still only worth $2.666 million, and even though spot price valuations are in profits with a $4.472 million valuation, the guy may well continue to be inspired to continue to buy BTC, since the actual BTC price (and the 200-WMA) are still pretty close to his average cost per BTC, which is nearly $35k.  

Surely, I would not suggest that it is obvious what the guy is going to do, and maybe it depends on the size of his overall investment portfolio whether he is currently overly allocated or if he might feel that he is right on his target.. so if we consider a $3 million investment amount, then that would perhaps suggest that if he were within his target then his overall investment portfolio would have a size of somewhere between $12 million (for a 25% BTC allocation) and $60 million (for a 5% BTC allocation), and so if he might have overshot whatever his own allocation goals were, then he may well end up feeling that he has enough BTC, so he might convert into more of a maintenance mode rather than an accumulation mode, but in any case, it seems way too soon that he would be ready for getting into any kind of liquidation mode, unless he were to have some unusual circumstances of either some kind of health emergency of himself or his family or an age concern (yet we should be able to rule out the age concern since any kind of normal or base case kind of guy with best (and/or better) kinds of BTC investment practices would not have had been investing into bitcoin under normal kinds of circumstances with less than a 4-year investment timeline.. so the elderly situation would have had been an exceptional situation rather than the normal kind of situations that I am trying to present a hypo 7 kind of guy).


Well MusaPk, either you meet the timeline requirements or you don't, and sure you could end up having a position that is somewhere between one timeline and another timeline, yet hopefully you understand that in this particular Hypo 9 situation, this guy would have had already reached right around 0.5 BTC if he had been investing for the 2.5 years, and the link within the hypo shows where the history would have had gotten a guy who would have had been able to be consistent in his DCA investment in that kind of a $100 per week amount starting from August 15, 2021 to present.  So if you have been into investing in bitcoin for a similar amount of time, you can look at your own performance results and compare with Hypo 9 to see if your results are similar to his or if you might have outperformed or under performed him.

Your forum registration date @MusaPk shows August 2022 and not August 2021, so shouldn't you be comparing your own results to Hypo 12 rather than to Hypo 9, unless you had been investing in bitcoin for right around a year longer than your forum registration date, which I am not going to deny to be possible. In my own situation I started investing in bitcoin right around 3 months prior to my forum registration date.. so my first investments in bitcoin were late November 2013 and my forum registration date is late February 2014.

For some reason through my ongoing back and forth interactions with you, it seems that I keep having to repeat that past performance does not give us very much evidence regarding future performance, except probably that we might presume that it takes more dollars to get similar results, but it still does not negate that DCA is likely going to continue to be amongst the best of the performance vehicles for bitcoin in terms of what normies would be both be able to practically apply towards their BTC accumulation and while at the same time attempting to invest as aggressively as they are able to accomplish without overdoing it.

And maybe another thing that I should point out (or repeat) is that with any of these examples (whether referring to sets 1, 2 or 3 of the hypos), we should be able to extrapolate guys with differing budget sizes, whether their budget size might be 10x higher, 10x lower or some other variant in the middle of those, and merely multiplying or dividing by 10 is going to give very similar results in terms of returns, yet we might not really know the extent to which any guy who is employing these DCA practices is falling more on the side of aggressiveness or more on the side of whimpiness, and the examples show that only the guys in set 1 of the hypos is in a position to start out with lump sum investing, and the guys in set 2 of the hypos likely already has a very good income with a decently large amount of discretionary/disposable income and the guys in set 3 of the hypos are likely struggling a lot more in terms of making sure that they actually have discretionary/disposable income on a regular basis.. so in terms of emergency funds, set 1 of the hypos has all kinds of emergency funds already in place and is already used to managing those kinds of things... set 2 of the hypos is in a place that he mostly has emergency funds and/or can fairly easily build an emergency fund, reserves and float, and set 3 of the hypos is likely in a lot of need for a lot of work to build and maintain emergency funds, yet even set 3 can catch up and surpass set 2 and/or set 1 especially if he enters into bitcoin at earlier dates.  

You see hypo 3 (which is a set 3), and you compare him with either hypo 10 or hypo 13, we can see that hypo 10 had to pay nearly 25x higher prices than hypo 3, and sure he was able to pass up hypo 3, but there surely are going to be a lot of folks in the same class as hypo 10 who were not able to pass up hypo 3, and so hypo 3 is putting himself into a higher class of wealth of person and surely some folks in set 1 are losing their status because of either their whimpiness in regards to bitcoin, or their waiting around too long before getting started in bitcoin, and it may well be the case that there are many folks who fit hypo 13  (and perhaps I need to make another series of Hypo 16, 17 and 18 who still have not gotten into bitcoin) will never be able to pass up hypo 3 - even though hypo 13 and hypo 3 come from different classes of investors, and in bitcoin there are going to surely continue to play out variations of those kinds of wealth redistribution matters and also that relatively poor people will continue to move into the rich class based on their consistency, persistency and their ongoing action in regards to accumulating and holding bitcoin as compared with rich folks who still have not even reached newbie status in their bitcoin journey because they continue to fail/refuse to act to create a BTC buying plan and to act upon such plan in order to accumulate bitcoin and so through their failure/refusal to act to accumulate and hold bitcoin, they choose to keep themselves as either no coiners or low coiners and continue to be on the losing side of the wealth redistribution that seems to be currently taking place.


In my response to this post, I am now starting to think that it could come in handy to attempt to describe the situation of Hypos 16, 17 and 18 in terms of their continuing to fail/refuse to actually plan and/or to act.. and surely the most important part seems to be the action part, but there could well be a planning part too... and so it could be interesting to consider the situations of the no coiners who still have not either gotten into the BTC accumulation planning stage or the BTC accumulation acting stage.

At some point I may well need to stop with this.. or maybe I would need to convert it into a book  - or a chapter of a book.. ... hahahahahaha


You are ONLY closest to Hypo 7 if you have been in BTC for 2.5 years, and if you are somewhere in the ballpark of August 2022 for your registration date, then from my perspective, you would be closer to hypo 10, even if you are working towards getting closer to hypo 7 - especially since one of the main factors in terms of differentiating 7 and 10 is how much time that you have been in the process of accumulating BTC.  So you tell me?  What is your time in service (BTC accumulation)?  Are you really closer to 2.5 years as compared with 1.25 years or is it that you are prematurely presuming your results prior to doing the time?

Am I being too harsh on you?  hahahahahahaha  

Basically, investment ought not to be done with emotions that's why beginners are always adviced to go for a long time investment rather than short term investments or trading because long-term investments gives one the ease to make investments and watch it grow as time goes on whereas a short term investor is just after the short term peanut (profit) that would be gotten forgetting to understand the high risk that is associated with it and they always get acquainted to monitor the activities of their investments thereby not giving them time for other things rather always watching the activities of the market.

JayJuanGee have been a good motivator of long term investment in this forum and has made few who are interested in the buying and hodling process to understand the basics of being a long term hodler. With the use of the DCA have also made it easier for everyone to be involved in buying and hodling at regular intervals unlike some persons that only wants to buy and hodl at ones and maybe stop buying again and the consistency in this DCA method have even helped a lot of Bitcoin investors to acquire as much Bitcoin even more than their expectations.

There is nothing wrong with it. Humans have this nature, we have different interpretation of same thing.   


Fair enough, since this is crux of Hypo - 7



Jokes apart. You must preserve this in one thread. So it may be readily available for reference. Also it may be referenecd again and again so more people will get to know about that.


There is nothing harsh JJG.

Hypo 7 has invested 3 million while Hypo 10 has invested 2 million dollars into Bitcoin and honestly I am no where near to that money. Date of registration doesn't mean we start accumulating from that date. I already said that even after you register here, it takes time to understand Bitcoin and how to accumulate it effictively.
If I talk about myself, I am started accumulating Bitcoin in DCA manner less then year ago.

 Indeed, the emotional aspect of investing has been often overlooked but it happens to be one of the most important aspects of Investment, it can indeed be very tempting to make certain rash decisions concerning your investment due to a few reasons you feel should be tackled immediately, but that's often a recipe for disaster. But with the help of long-term Investment, you'll be able to take a more levelheaded decision because those decisions are not products of tension and anxiety. Rather than getting caught up in the dramatic trends of the market, you'll focus more in the big picture with your eyes on the goal and that's what will help you make the right decisions.

Short-term Investment on the other hand can be really emotionally draining and very stressful too, especially for new Bitcoin investors and newbies.
Long term investment is a lot more stable and less stressful, you can just set it and forget about it and then you just have to check in on it periodically which isn't even mandatory, because whether you do or not, the Investment would still be going as it should.

Indeed, JayJuanGee has been an incredible advocate for Long-term Investment and DCAing. And without a doubt, his levelheaded approaches has definitely inspired a lot of  people on the forum and has also provided helpful guidance for people to make the right decisions on the right Investment approach to employ to ensure they minimize the risks involved in Bitcoin Investment. It's amazing to see how one person makes such an impact to this community.


It is possible to view Hypos 7 and 10 as distinct turning points in the Bitcoin accumulation process, and time is definitely an important factor. It's critical to have a realistic perspective on your current stage of the journey and avoid putting yourself ahead of yourself by making comparisons to those who have traveled a longer distance. Nevertheless, even if you are aware that reaching your objectives will take time, it is still crucial to set and work toward them. Thus, it is reasonable to aim for both Hypo 7 and 10.

Long-term goals can benefit from being visualized in terms of stages and levels. More like a video game. Think of each stage or level as a kind of "boss fight" that signifies a distinct turning point in your adventure. Hypo 7 would be equivalent to Level 1 in this instance, and Hypo 10 to Level 2. As you advance through the stages, you gain strength and resilience. Each level has its own set of obstacles and rewards.

No problem.  I had been trying to highlight some of the area where I perceived us to be thinking about some of these matters differently, and even my assessment of the difference might not be correct, since sometimes meaning and/or intention can be lost in writing.


It can be a bit strange because I had been attempting to add some presumptions, and surely some of the budgeting matters are intended to have some relations within the timelines and then maybe even showing that even if a later entrant comes into BTC, they are likely going to need to have a BIGGER budget than the guy from the earlier timeline, and even with an earlier budget, the later entrant guys might not have much if any chance to actually catch up to the earlier time guys who might have even had a smaller budget. 

I had been thinking about attempting to get into some comparisons with some of the earlier arguments that you seemed to have been making about a kind of preferably for lump sum, and it does not seem easy to really show my counter-arguments with examples, and one of the defects with the current hypotheticals as they all currently stand is that there is they all include DCA.. even the Lump sum guys of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 are including DCA.. so they do a lump sum and then they DCA thereafter.

I was thinking that maybe even with Hypos 1, 4 & 7, there could be another hypo added that might be labelled as Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a, and so the underlying presumption would be that if we can already figure out their total investment, then we can figure out the amount that they invested per year, so 10 years, versus 5 years versus 2.5 years, and perhaps, our Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a would ONLY invest in BTC with a lump sum of 1 year's investment amount, and then they would thereafter just sit on their investment.. so they have pretty much invested a whole year of their investment budget at time 1, and so presumptively, they are going to end up with a lower cost per BTC, but they are going to have way fewer BTC, and so part of my point would be to attempt to show that it is not always advantageous to just invest one time in a lump sum kind of a way (even if you are able to do it), and the ones that supplement with DCA and even the ones with a lower budget may well end up spending way more on their BTC (even per BTC), but in the longer run, may of us would have rather been the guy with more BTC, even if our costs per BTC would have had been higher than the lump sum only guys.


It seem that I already took your advice on the point of having a place to reference these hypos, and that was part of the reason that I added the hypos to opening post 2 of my investment ideas thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590).

So tentatively, I am considering the possibility of adding Hypos 1a, 4a & 7a in order to juxtapose a lump sum ONLY example.. but then also I had been considering adding Hypos 16, 17 & 18,  and those would be no coiners who have neither any BTC but they have no plan to get into BTC.  Of course, these guys could convert into Hypos 13, 14 & 15 by merely creating a plan in which they would be able to act upon, but they are not yet to that stage, and it could take many years or even many cycles before they finally convert into Hypos 13, 14 & 15.

One of my concern with so many hypos is that they can start to feel a bit cluttered and maybe even confusing - since why do we need so many examples, and surely another problem is that the examples capture a point in time, so there could be some aspects in regards to the information that is less than evergreen... meaning that the information for some of the timelines might need to be changed from time to time.. once every 4-year cycle, perhaps?


It seems to me that Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 are largely meant to show the situation of guys who already have some amount of money that they are able to lump sum invest, and the earlier guys Hypos 1 and 4 are relatively less wealthy than the later guys, which is largely attempting to show that there is a need for more capital as a later investor in order to attempt to even come close to catching up to the earlier investors, yet at the same time, I am not attempting to be exclusionary with my use of larger amounts for any of the guys, especially since there could still be cases in which relatively poor guys have come to bitcoin and have already built up some investment funds, so maybe a guy who had been investing $10 to $100 per week in non-bitcoin investments in the last 5-10 years may well have been able to build up both investments and even an emergency fund, but that same guy might not have a lot of money, but he would still end up fitting into the category of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 - since he is a guy who is able to lump sum invest. 

Maybe such guy built up $10 per week which is $520 per year which is $5,200 in 10 years, and yeah, if he built up 10x that amount with $100 per week, then he would have built up an investment portfolio of $52k, and both guys fit into the same category even though the amounts are different. 

Another assumption of Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13 is that they have their finances in pretty decent order with an emergency fund and reserves and likely manageable debt, even though I don't get too much into discussions of debt in these hypotheticals, even though these days, debt problems are quite common accross very many of the segments of society.
 

That makes sense.  I do frequently presume the registration date, and it would not be easy to keep track of the circumstances of all the forum members, so sometimes we might need to be reminded about the circumstances, especially if the guys might be suggesting that they fit into one of the hypotheticals more than the others, which you ended up doing that in your earlier response by saying that you fit with hypo 7.. which surely would have had been problematic if your timeline was not close to 2.5 years.


So, yeah, if you are only getting close to 1 year investing into bitcoin you would be closest in terms of comparing yourself to Hypos 10, 11 & 12.. and maybe if I end up adding hypo Hypos 10a, then you could be close to that... Probably the more difficult hypotheticals are the ones with the shortest period of time investing, and even the 2.5 year hypotheticals don't really have a very long track record like the ones with 5 years and 10 years... and so I have been criticized for being too random and arbitrary in terms of the facts and the conclusions of what I am attempting to show, and surely there is some truth in those kinds of accusations, yet at the same time, guys have to try  to decide these kinds of matters on their own, to plug in their own facts and hopefully come to the seemingly more correct conclusions that it tends to take a whole fucking lot of time to build up an investment portfolio, even if you do everything right and even if you attempt to be aggressive with your approach, and there could be ways that guys build up their investment portfolio  and then end up getting lucky with a lot of BTC price performance in a short period of time, but at the same time, there still need to be choices in regards to how much to put into the investment and perhaps to even attempt to see if too much risk might be being taken if you might be investing beyond your budget or something like that... because even though it can take a long time to build an investment portfolio, it may even take longer to recover, and/or recovery might not be possible if some guys are gambling rather than investing with their time, energy and financial value.


I am not sure if you are reading those correctly, because largely with Hypos 7 and 10 I am attempting to describe the state in which someone comes to bitcoin, and of course, hypo 7 has 2.5 years into bitcoin and hypo 10 has 1.25 years into bitcoin, so they are already building from the state in which they came into bitcoin.  So either you are already at that state when you get into bitcoin or you are not. 

The state of hypos 7 and 10 already have emergency funds and reserves in order, so they are presumptively already in a good financial state when they start to invest into bitcoin, and that is why they are able to start out with a lump sum and then to supplement with DCA.

Of course someone could start out fitting within a state that more closely resembles hypos 8 or 9 or hypos 11 and 12, which are those who have 2.5 years and 1.25 years in bitcoin respectively. 

However, already with the hypos, I am also presuming that any of the guys who do not have an ability to lump sum invest, then the first year or two of investing into, they would be building their emergency funds and reserves... and of course, the presumption is that hypos 8 and hypo 11, are already in a better position than either hypo 9 or hypo 12 at the time of getting into bitcoin.. so in the process, they are already investing into bitcoin and building themselves into a better position in terms of the solidness of their emergency fund and reserves.

Another thing is that there are presumptions that at the time of their entrance into bitcoin, hypo 7 has an emergency fund and reserves, hypo 8 has an emergency fund and no reserves and hypo 9 has neither an emergency fund and reserves.  However, after 2.5 years investing into bitcoin hypo 8 should have had gotten enough of his shit together to establish a reserves (but a reserves is not really mandatory until there are desires to start to buy on dips and things like that, so there could be cases that hypo 8 just continues to maximize his disposable income into bitcoin so he would not establish a reserve) and the same with hypo 9, after 2.5 years he surely would establish an emergency fund, but not necessarily a reserve because a reserve presumes holding back some of the DCA.. and so the longer that any of them are into bitcoin the more likely they would transition into having a reserve as well as their emergency fund and an emergency fund that is 3-6 months or more is way more basic than having reserves.. and the more aggressive that a person is in his investment or the more unstable is his income, the more likely that he is going to need a larger amount of an emergency fund and/or reserves.


I am not sure if that would be completely correct except for there is a kind of passage of time, so if a person is brand new and starting out, then he might start at hypo 15, then go to hypo 12 and then go to hypo 9 and then go to hypo 6..  .. and the main thing would just be the passing of time and attempting to stay consistent with his investment.. and so he might not reach the exact same levels but he might have comparison points with where he should be and whether he overperformed or under performed.


But you seem to be going backwards, but at least hypos 7 and 10 are in the same category of someone who had already started out in bitcoin with an ability to lump sum invest.


That part is true..,. and maybe there have been quite a few of us longer term bitcoiners suggesting that getting through a whole bitcoin cycle (4 years) can really show a certain amount of evidence in regards to how any person had been able to get through that whole cycle and then if he might need to consider the extent to which he might need to reassess what he has done and whether the next 4 years (or whatever additional period) is going to be in need of further adjustments in terms of ongoing accumulation or if maybe the person had gotten into a maintenance stage at some point within the first 4 years, which surely seems less likely with a pure DCA strategy, yet surely there are going to be differences in terms of if someone had already been able to bring other financial resources into bitcoin within the first 4 years. 

And, in the end, these are all discretionary matters, in which each of us has complete control over our own approach towards investing into bitcoin and the employment of BTC accumulation strategies.

Hodlimg Bitcoin is a good investment to take but it seems difficult for some people maybe because they lack the patience to hodl bitcoin.  But some people don't know the waiting to make  profit from Bitcoin is worth it. The profit you get in hodling Bitcoin is what you can never get saving your money in the bank. Instead of getting profit money will be losing it value while keeping it in the bank.  Hodling Bitcoin is good indeed.

The solution to this is to have a Podcast, where we will get what you say.  ;)


"Hypo-1: 300 BTC - Around $225k invested, average cost per BTC $750, valued at around $9.3 million based on 200-WMA and $15.6 million spot price."

In these you mentioned Hypo's, a person has adequate number of Bitcoins so he can move on with DCA for rest of period. 


Agree. If am getting right then Lump Sum plus DCA is the right way to move in the long runs.


This is what I was about to write when wrote about your plan to roll out 1a,4a and 7a. This will make it difficult for anyone new to these Hypo's and trying to understand that.


Defiantly if you don't have a right path to invest in Bitcoin then you will end up in loss.
About gambling this quote just hit my mind. "In gambling, a winner is the one who knows when to stop".

To be honest, altcoin projects do not offer any attractive features at all. They all always emphasize cheap transaction fees and fast transaction speeds, but other than that, I don't see anything outstanding that really deserves our attention. But if just to get cheap fees and fast transaction speed but lose the decentralized nature, do you need it? So if there are any altcoins that can create a blockchain with cheap transaction fees and fast speeds while retaining the decentralized nature of bitcoin then they will truly excel. Otherwise they are nothing worth our attention.

For me, altcoins used for speculation or gambling are more suitable. We can take advantage of our knowledge to speculate and should leave after making a profit. Don't believe any promises made by any altcoin.

Some people still find it difficult to invest in Bitcoin by Hodling not only because of their limited patience, but it could also be because they are not financially ready to do this so far, which means their investment plans have to be postponed first. Because most people who have invested in Bitcoin by hodling must have prepared everything in advance, such as better financial conditions, so that they can keep their investment longer under all conditions. So by not interrupting investments because of certain conditions in their lives, Bitcoin investors can also get more profits while they are still able to survive and maintain their investments without immediately selling for a reason.

I admire guys who have podcasts and who pull off good content on a regular basis.. It would be a lot of work.


It is difficult to completely flesh out the circumstances, but it seems that at least Hypos 1, 2 and 4 have come to BTC with enough capital and had invested somewhat aggressively and have had a sufficient amount of time pass in their investment, so it starts to seem that they may well have enough BTC in light of their own situations at the time that they came into bitcoin.  Each person has to assess, but I am describing situations in which they may well reasonably come to conclusions that they have enough BTC and they may well not need to accumulate any more BTC....

Of course there are going to be guys that do not need that many coins, especially if they might live in a lower cost of living area, or they might have expectations in which they might ONLY want to spend around $40k per year rather than $100k per year.. or whatever their monthly/annual budget might be.


Yep.. if you are able to lump sum and/or front load your BTC investment, there are likely going to be advantages in that.  The ability to supplement with DCA and buying on dips surely helps if the BTC price runs against you after you have made your lump sum buys.


I will see if (or when) I am able to do it, and if it might make sense to make that additional comparison.


It can be very difficult to get back your principle if you lose it.. especially if you think about any of the guys Hypo 1 through 6.  They had 10 and 5 years investing into bitcoin respectively, and if they lost their BTC, they may well not be able to get them back anywhere close to the prices that they bought them.

To me these types of people just lack one thing, and to me they lack the right knowledge of how to go about it. Investing in Bitcoin is very easy, because you can be buying it bit by bit through the DCA method and be accumulating  it as much as possible, where the challenge normal comes is knowing how to hold, because in Bitcoin investment, patience alone is not enough, you have to have a source of income and an emergency fund so as to keep you going not to tamper with your investment if you are in need of any basic needs of life, so to me, having the right knowledge is key.

I still remember several tokens I invested in those days that got me entangled in those jargons. First they will launch their token, use that to collect money from people and they list their glorified token in exchange which will die immediately or after some few manipulations by the founders until at least they liquidate their holdings. After this stage, they will then launch worthless NFTs backed by huge marketing to collect more money from unsuspecting victims until the hype will die and the team will move on to the next project.

Wish I knew what I know now, those funds I wasted would have been used to build a decent Bitcoin portfolio that would have made me financially comfortable today. I only find consolation in the fact that I did not abandon this entire concept and I have also found courage to start building my Bitcoin portfolio when I did. Indeed, Bitcoin is the way forward, the earlier anyone avoid the distractions with these numerous coins, the better. 

In most senorio case some people always have that conclusions that any token that got listed in exchange have good potentials which has seen not have any validations as regards to that, that a token is listed in exchange doesn't guarantee the token having potential neither does the early market cap as some person may have it that  it determine success of token. Bitcoin has significantly showm to be the best which should be consider in your investment portfolio.

there are nothing in crypto that brings better and best than Bitcoin lol .

I know and happened to see this currency for more than 7 years now and Indeed that HODLING  have been the perfect way to treat not only because its ranking number 1 but because this is the safest.

I will never have any better investing than Bitcoin (not in bank and not in real estate) but bitcoin.

Let's say in short term, some altcoins can give altcoin enthusiasts very high ROIs, much higher (so better) than Bitcoin but it only last some weeks, months or up to two years. When a bear market comes, they lose 90% to 99% of their ATH price and it's when they are no longer better than Bitcoin.

Zoom out, in long term, Bitcoin is the best in ROI and the safest too, no roll back, no death.

ROIs show that fact

• https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart

I suggest to go for it. You will defiantly be as good as Michael J. Saylor in Podcast.


Hypo-1. 300 BTC (10 years)
Hypo-2. 115 BTC (10 years)
Hypo-4. 150 BTC (5 years)

Above is just a quick summery of these 3 Hypo's and you are right in saying that they have adequate number of Bitcoins at the disposal but they are in Bitcoin for quite a while. If you spend your time with right strategy in Bitcoin then after sometimes your portfolio is like that. One has to keep that in mind. 


I think this is key take away from what we are discussing for quite a while now i.e. Lump Sum and DCA are best combo.


If you go 10 years back then there is massive difference in price with what we have right now. So yes if you lost those coins then you wont be able to get back to that position.
Those who investing now should keep this thing in mind that it will take years before you get into good position into Bitcoin.

You have a lot of confidence.  Of course, people have their specialities.. and Saylor is pretty damned gifted in the gab department.. Someone might call it "the gift of gab"  .. ..


We look at the quantity of BTC and we look at how long that they have been in, but then they may also be considering various aspects of their personal situation that include the 9 factors (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590).

They also may not be ready to move into something that involves sustainable withdrawal or maintenance, even though they may well consider that they have accumulated enough based on their own circumstances.


Fair enough.. though I hate to take away various kinds of individualization.., and the many times that I have suggested that lump sum frequently is not really available.. .. but there could be times in which someone is investing for a while, and then he receives a bonus or maybe some kind of extra payment (income) and then all of a sudden he has a lump sum opportunity, so then what is he going to do?  Perhaps consider lump sum, buying on the dips and DCA.. and so how he goes about it may well also include other things going on, including how many BTC he had already accumulated, so buying on dips can be another tool, especially for someone who has already bought a decent amount of BTC within a certain price range... so if we are striving to accumulate bitcoin, then we sometimes will want to consider buying on the dip,  along side with lump sum and DCA... and various other financial management strategies that help us to conclude the extent to which we might be getting overallocated in bitcoin at any given time.


Preservation of capital does become more and more important when you build up your holdings, and historically in bitcoin there have been times when the price shot up so much that some guys might not have had known how to handle the situation and/or to improve their security of their wallets and/or their storage locations in order to account for the increased value of the coins.

In crypto industry feels like it's the only one way to win this game is to hodl

Fuck crypto..

We are talking about bitcoin in this thread.

Hopefully you know the difference, but the fact that you used that word seems to establish that you don't... .. so hopefully you can spend some time learning about what bitcoin is so that you know how to properly speak.   :P

Focus on Bitcoin so you don't complicated things for yourself. As a newbie, if you don't take necessary steps at getting the clarifications, you might think that anything that answer crypto is worth holding. That is how problem starts and you will hate anything crypto with Bitcoin inclusive. So the right world in this thread is Bitcoin, buy and hold as that is the only way. If you hodl anything else, you might end up hold a bag of shitcoins... I hope you don't want that?

You do have this speciality of "the gift of gab" only if you have sound knowledge and experience about the topic you are speaking. Saylor has made this repute after spending so much time, mind and money in Bitcoin.


These 9 points are equally important and from my perspective the cash flow is the biggest factor that influence you investment strategy about Bitcoin. Of course everyone has its own way of looking about these 9 points. I would make decision only after calculating how much cash flow I have for Bitcoin.



After you spend time in accumulating Bitcoin one can adjust his strategy about when to invest lump sum, DCA and on dips. DCA for me is an on going process and anyone who is true lover of Bitcoin will never stop accumulating Bitcoin no matter how much Bitcoins he has. You need some kind of experience to go with lump sum and on dips. That's not a big issue, it comes with time.


This is a kind of concern in Bitcoin that security of your wallets must be of prime concern for you. Normally security is considered as an after thought in many process. The realisation that if you lose, you wont recover it comes only when you face some sort of issue in securing your wallets.

Sure cashflow is important, but I have troubles suggesting that as a general principle cashflow is going to be more important than the others.

We could even look at the earlier hypos that I provided, or maybe we have to come up with some other example in which we might suggest three guys with similar levels of cashflow..

let's say that each of them earn around $3k per month, and they each have about $2k in expenses.  So there is $1k left over that could be used for investing into bitcoin... so all three guys are pretty much the same.  Let's say that each of them have equally-sized investment portfolios when it comes to various non-BTC stuff.. and maybe they have around $100k in their various non-BTC investments.

So this is the ONLY way that the three guys differ.

Guy one has 5 BTC

the second guy has 2.5 BTC

and the 3rd guy has zero BTC

That seems to be a pretty important fact.

What if we take another hypothetical with guys that are very similar in their networth and their cashflow except one guy is 25 years old, the second guy is 50 years old and the 3rd guy is 75 years old.  timeline for these guys seems to be pretty important for their decision-making.

What if we take another example that involves similar cashflow but different kinds of investments or sizes of investments.

I guess that my point is that all of the factors are likely important to consider in terms of how each of the factors affects how a guy is going to approach his bitcoin investment.

But if you are suggesting that cashflow is the most important because you have to have a cashflow before you can even invest, then sure that probably is true unless you happen to be the recipient of some large sum of money and then you are just trying to figure out how to allocate that money so that you can generate a passive income into the future... so then the value that you are receiving is going to serve as a cashflow, as long as you invest it in a way that causes it to be sustainable rather than eating into the principle... but whether you want to eat into the principle or have the investment as sustainable would likely depend on your timeline.. asking yourself: how long you need to make this investment/principle last?

Ok I got it from the example you just wrote that all points are equally important and one can't ignore anyone while making investment strategy. Or it may be that important points may change based on the scenario in which we are analysing it.


That's true that I am not a receipt of large sum of money and probably that's why I am saying that to me cash flow is an important factor so that I can decide how much I will invest in.
To the question you posed, I think I still have 20 to 25 years left before I think I will be too old for any further investments. I think if I can keep investing for next 6 to 7 years aggressively then I will be very much in good Hypo's

I still remember in my early days in the crypto space I bought some cheap coins and hold thinking that when the bull season comes it will pump and give me a huge ROI. Unfortunately, after several years of holding, I'd never see it comes, not even until now and I wasted my money and time waiting for such an impossible thing in shitcoins. This is enough to tell us that buying and holding Bitcoin is the best thing to do even if the price is quite expensive rather than wasting our money on cheap coins that we only get nothing in the end. We ain't get 100% assurance here but choosing Bitcoin gives us peace of mind and little worries as we never lose if we hold and sell at a higher price.

Hodling bitcoin is the best approach in the investment of it. And not the one that some investors buy and sell to get their profit within a short period of time. But when you buy enough and hodle it for years before selling them you will make enough profit from it. Some people can't hodle bitcoin for like even 3 month, and those people are gamblers and traders. Because they are always eager to use them either to play gamble thinking to win more so that they can return the ones they collect from the investment but in the process lost all and that is the same to the traders. They would be thinking to us the investment funds to trade so that they can have profit and return the one they collected it from the investment but all was lost.

So to avoid all those things, it is better to keep the investment in the non custodial wallet and wait for the All Time High.

That also reason why most people haven't invested in bitcoin yet ,because of their financial capability, for instance people that barely cover their expenses with their earning can't think of investing (funds they need to survive) . So having a good cash flow as already given a head start. And would also make your accumulating with DCA strategies or any other strategies More effective, Other things that matter in your investment is how frequent you are in your accumulating. Because the more you accumulating (aggressively) the more and faster your portfolio would grow expecially having a good cash flow, and Also you would need a good principles for you to be able to be patient, while holding for long.


 I can actually Relate, wasting your time in some Damn shit coins that would endup bringing nothing other than losses most time . Most of those shit coin are the reason most users don't have confidence in investing again due to the scar a certain coin left on them . Because as a newbie with no proper knowledge about the space, came across post on social media how people are making millions in this space they would endup developing a childish mindset thinking you can just get risk ones in this space over night leading them to be mislead by others in, investing in some shit coin in order to make huge profits in a short term, but ended making great losses . That would reduce the trust and confidence for that user in investing in this space that why they keep telling those who are new to start their investment in this space with Bitcoin in order to be a safer side.

Well, usually timelines have to do with when you might need the money, and so there could be stages in which you are able to front load your investment in the beginning, so then by the time that you get 6-7 years in, then you might transition to investing in other things and maybe you don't quite need the money, so maybe you are anticipating that you might start to withdraw some of the money in a 20-25 year timeline.  It is good to have some expectations that might go out quite a way into the future, even if you might not know specifics, and you can adjust your plans as you go, since they will also make more sense once you have various investments and you might consider which ones will you start to draw upon first, and so hopefully you would have something other than bitcoin to draw upon first, yet sometimes for practicality purposes, you might have less ability to draw on some of them prior to others.


Even when folks invest aggressively, sometimes it can seem like it takes a long time to build an investment, but after a while, it might start to seem that the amount of the investment is worth way more than the amount put in, and surely it helps to invest into something that appreciates in value.. Of course, historically bitcoin has appreciated greatly in value, but that past performance does not guarantee future results.. even though we still likely realize that bitcoin remains amongst the best of investments that is currently available in wide-spread ways to all people around the world - even if some people do have some difficulties accessing bitcoin without some effort on their part to either learn about it or to learn some technical matters, so that may well not exclude them financially from investing into it, even though it takes some effort and will power to set up plans to first invest and then second to aggressively invest upon learning what bitcoin is.

Maybe another widespread fallacy that is made regards the world's knowledge of bitcoin, which is not true that many people know what the fuck bitcoin is, even if more and more people have heard the word, but they still don't really know what bitcoin is because if they actually knew what bitcoin is, then more people would already taken action to actually have had bought bitcoin, and even though the bitcoin's price is pumping stupendously, there are overwhelming majority of people who have no access to bitcoin and they have  not set up any account in which they can get it, so we are still very early in terms of both knowledge and adoption.

I have seen a few post lately about low liquidity in Bitcoin even as price continues to rise. Could this low liquidity be as a result of more people willing to HODL now as captured by thus thread? In other words, could it be that the campaign I'm this thread is actually making real impact in the market? I know we might think that we are little investors discussing here but the truth is that the forum is home to most of the big players in the market, they come here for information even without anyone noticing who is who.

It's not this thread, but it is over the years more and more people had been taking their coins off of exchanges, including a lot of the fear from the various scammers from 2022, such as Terra Luna, Blockfi, Celsius, 3AC, Voyager, FTX and Genesis.. .. So those kinds of scams cause more and more people to take their coins into self-custody, and so when there is so much demand for more and more BTC, the BTC are not available... including that if the various ETFs buy the coins, they are not allowed to recirculate them, they are supposed to stay in their custody, so that causes additional upward pressures on BTC prices..because of the less liquidity.. of course, if the price goes up, then some folks will move their coins onto exchanges to sell them, but I am kind of thinking that we are going to need 2x to 3x price increases from here to incentivize some folks to want to sell some of their coins, and that still might not be enough coins to address the liquidity problem that currently continues to exist.

Bitcoin is a more stable and preferred asset to invest in, the idea of altcoins is all about initial gains and they are not reliable to hold cause it's so risky that we could lose our funds to them, most altcoins that experience a price crash never get up from it, but bitcoin has experience several and bounced back, showing that it's a better asset to invest in.

The bull run has come and I'm seeing a lot of person's that  just started investing talking about selling and I wonder why, are there all about the gains too or the compound omg value which happens to be more with every year, taking profits is not bad but when you end up taking too much and you risk yourself by putting yourself in a situation where you cant buy back at same price or even lower, bitcoin is an ever moving asset and it's best you sit on the bus and wait for your destination and it doesn't have to be a short term journey. Advice to newbies


Yeah I can see a lot of demand pressure increasing since many holders are getting smart to be self custodians.

Most person's won't even sell till they see bitcoin at 100k, like all over the media I just see everyone talking about it.

I think this bull run came with a lot of fuel to shock the world with an outstanding ATH, we are all speculating the best what else can we do.

I have been on the lookout for what possible DCA calculator I should use, because as a newbie one of the highest worries I have is how to monitor my Bitcoin investment and what DCA record tools I should adopt that can give me total accurate figures of what my profits percentage is and lose also, because I have the intention to invest at a weekly interval and hold my Bitcoin for at least 4 years which is a one bitcoin halves cycle and by then, I should be able to arrive at a balanced ground in terms of Bitcoin accumulation journey based on my total invested funds.

One more factor I want to add to the fact that Bitcoin in circulation is becoming less and less is that today Bitcoin can be used for more purposes, increasing the applicability of Bitcoin instead of just storing it on the exchange like yesterday. They can use Bitcoin to mint NFTs right on the Bitcoin blockchain (Bitcoin Ordinals), thereby trading NFTs, contributing to burning a significant amount of Bitcoin fees as this trend shows no signs of stopping. Additionally, they can use Bitcoin as collateral on Defi applications to seek additional profits instead of just buying and holding on exchanges.

Consider me as a guy who is not very old in crypto or a person who learned DCA, LUMP SUM and on DIPS for just a year ago. Because it also take time before you start believing in Bitcoin that it's good investment for long term.
As I already told in earlier post that I have been accumulating (DCA manner) for almost a year ago and I am now fully aware of how to move forward. That's why I am saying that if I aggressively invest for next 6 to 7 years then I will be in some top Hypo's.
You got it right that for me after 20 to 25 years I won't be that young to invest and will need to withdraw what I have been investing for my whole life.   
There are few other investments going in parallel with Bitcoin and if I survive for next 20 to 30 years then I will be able to enjoy that :)
What I have learned so far is that strategies can be readjusted with time. As I will spend more time here, I will learn more about Bitcoin and might have better plans about investing in Bitcoin.



Well to start invest in Bitcoin you need motivation more then capital. There is no minimum capital you need to start investing in Bitcoin, one can start investing in Bitcoin with any money. Cash flow along with 8 other factors (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590) influence your decision about investing in Bitcoin for long term. Those who have never invested a single penny  into Bitcoin will never have idea about what these 9 factors are.

You're actually wrong, there's no strategy you apply in bitcoin investment that will bring profit within a short period of time except you want to gamble with your investment. Holding bitcoin is totally different from trading and gambling. Holding bitcoin is not so risky like what most people think besides as a newbie you should not channel all your attention on the risk involved when you need to learn about accumulating strategy. The only problem people get with investing is greed, lack of patience and inadequate finance or else I don't get why an investor will want to gamble with bitcoin investment.

The only strategy investors can use to buy, is when there is hopeful sign of increment in the price, topical example is, last week the price of bitcoin was between 50k-51k, just imagine when an investor buy at that price at least he or she would have gained about 11k plus, hence btc price is at 62k plus currently but this doesn't happen every time, event might turn against ones plan, the only method a Bitcoin investor will apply to be successful is long-term holding which you have mentioned already, Bitcoin investment is not for fast money making, it is for those who are ready to endure for a long period of time to participate in the profitable events that is bound to happen at some given number of years.

Since the price of Bitcoin started going up this year, I have seen lot of people talking about Bitcoin especially in this forum advising people to keep buying and holding there Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the only hope we have now apart from the hood altcoins that we have in the market that can give us good profits in the market.

Since Bitcoin started skyrocketing since 35k, there had been a continuous momentum and that should that we are already in the bull. Those that had been holding their Bitcoin since the price was little would be happy right now because they are already in big profits which is a good thing to talk about. Keep holding and wat h your investment increases in price.

DCA calculators do not tell you how much you will make in the future.  They ONLY show past performance, which that does not mean that you would profit in the future. 

I think that it is it better to figure out your own formula in terms of investing as much as you feel comfortable, while realizing that you might not gain any money and you also might lose all of it.

For beginners going into bitcoin, you should at least consider the below 9 factors:. .and DCA with small amounts while you are learning is also o.k. in order that you can determine if you would like to become more aggressive, and at the same time it is important to get started sooner rather than later in order that you can get some kind of a start and even getting set up with how you are going to source your buys can take a bit of time to figure out and maybe to adapt along the way, too.

The 9 factors you mentioned are certainly very useful as guidelines for managing finances when investing in Bitcoin. I understand that cash flow is the main basis for us to apply the DCA strategy, which is to manage finances as best as possible to be able to accumulate bitcoins in the investment journey. And maybe we will also consider the price side to enter in the early stages of purchasing. Because lately bitcoin has risen significantly so we have to think whether the DCA move is the best strategy for now if we are too late to use it.

Apart from that, if you have collected BTC throughout your investment journey. Do you still do DCA when the price of Bitcoin has recorded its highest price? or it is better to wait for the correction and buy all at once and start over to set the dca when the price has gone down.

Yes.  I agree that it is more challenging to enter into an investment after the price has risen a lot, including if you consider that bitcoin has risen right around 4x since November 2022  or even more than 2x since October 2023.

Nonetheless, as an investor, especially a newbie who might be considering establishing a BTC position, you may well want to make sure that you are prepared for either UP or down, and the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy some bitcoin.  If you do not have any bitcoin, then you are not prepared for UP, and waiting does not constitute being prepared for up.

Now as a newbie if you think that you are some kind of expert or you have some kind of superior knowledge (or hunch) that the BTC price is going to drop, then maybe you would risk waiting, but that seems to be just gambling rather than really being serious about investing.

One of the best strategies for anyone, including newbies, would be to perform some kind of a lump sum investment right away, but then to make sure that he has additional funds (whether from cashflow or just holding back some of the invested amount) to either keep buying no matter what and to also potentially hold back some funds in order to prepare to buy on dips.

One of the problems with lump sum investing and also the situation of a lot of normies is that normies (meaning most normal people) do not have have abilities to lump sum, and that is why DCA tends to be so effective and/or practical. So if there is some cash just coming in on a regular basis and some of that is considered disposable/discretionary income, then you determine how much of that you want to dedicate to investing into bitcoin, and then the question would be whether to invest right away or to hold some of it back for buying on dips.

Another thing is that if someone is new to investing, it well could take 10 years (at 10% invested/saved) to be able to invest up to a year's salary, so it take a whole fucking long time to really build any kind of meaningful portfolio, so if you happen to be someone who is fairly new to investing and you have been investing way less than 10 years, you are probably better off just DCAing most of the amount that you allocate, and perhaps considering whether there might be some value to holding some of that back for buying on dips.

Now if you are someone who has other funds that you can allocate, then that puts you into a situation of someone who can lump sum part of that, and if you are someone who has been investing into bitcoin for several years, then you also might have the luxury of letting off on your DCA in these price territories, but it still may not necessarily make sense to let off on your BTC accumulation unless you have figured out some strategies in which you have already assessed that you have accumulated enough BTC or that you have over accumulated.  If you are not able to make those kinds of determinations, then it probably would be better to just continue buying BTC regularly until you reach such status. .and that is surely and truly under your own criteria that you would reach such an assessment about your own situation.

If you are merely looking at the current BTC price move, that is only one of the factors, and surely, you might consider that there are better places to put your money - even though personally, it seems like a problematic determination, especially if you have already assessed that you have neither reached sufficient/adequate BTC accumulation or overaccumulation.


Of course, if you have  spent a considerable amount of time accumulating BTC, then you may well have reached a status of either accumulating enough BTC or even having had over accumulated BTC, so you have more options once you reach those kinds of assessments.. and since you have been registered on this forum for nearly 9 years, since April 2015, you have had a lot of opportunities to accumulate bitcoin throughout the last 9 years, yet at the same time, you likely realize that bitcoin currently is not really in a position of being overly valued - especially considering what happened in the last couple of years and the significant amount of ongoing existent and persistent buying pressures coming from a lot of new categories of buyers, and also including that BIG financial institutions are now starting to market their products that would require that they are backed by actual bitcoin rather than paper bitcoin.

So you should be attempting to account for actual factors that involve assessments of BTC price and whether you might consider that bitcoin has higher price potential from here. You are responsible for coming to your own assessments that would involve how many BTC you believe is sufficient and adequate preparation for up.. and yeah always trying to be prepared financially and psychologically for the BTC price to move in either direction in the short to medium term, while at the same time keeping your eye on the prize, in the event that you actually are able to understand what makes bitcoin valuable and likely more valuable than any other asset currently in existence... and you don't even have to believe all of those kinds of bullish ideas in order to figure out your own allocations and how much you need to assure that you are prepared for either and both possible BTC price directions at the same time based on your assessing the particulars and viewpoints of each of your own assessments of the 9 factors.

Another thing is that it can take a lot of practice to really  get some kind of balance in your own life in terms of assessing the 9 factors so that you end up being comfortable with your own allocation choices, including the extent to which you might feel that you want to approach bitcoin with a whimpy approach or a more aggressive approach, and maybe also assessing if you want to allocate somewhere between 5% to 25% of your investment into bitcoin and so 5% would be on the more whimpy side and 25% would be on the more aggressive side, but you can ONLY afford to be aggressive if you have done some of the necessary studying of your own circumstances.  Of course you are free to go outside of that range, but the 5% to 25% is an initial starting point to figure out where you might fall within that recommended starting range.

With the little idea I have gotten so far in bitcoin investment I think long-term holding has always been the option for every bitcoiner who is ready to benefit immensely in the business because bitcoin has shown a lot of encouragement, I don't know why people still have doubt or think that the best investment strategy here is to their money and pull it out in the couple of months, though their are premature sellers because of market speculations but this is not suppose to be so, that's why it is advisable for every bitcoiner to have a knowledge of how to things are been done in Bitcoin before we can investment to avoid unnecessary panic.

You are actually right on this bro, Bitcoin investment is more beneficial to a long term thinker or a long term holder, just look at the statistics of Bitcoin of how it has grown and gain popularity over the years, It has practically behaved like a fine 🍷 wine, it has gotten better with age, I believe that with the uniqueness of Bitcoin, it will get even better.

Lastly, you just don't have to be perfect in knowledge about Bitcoin before you invest, you just need a basic knowledge on how to invest through the DCA method and a deeper knowledge later on how to hold effectively, by having an emergency fund and a source of income, so that you don't have to be eating from your investment when facing financial troubles.

Unfortunately, those in this category are more, the buy and hold for few months or few years and then sell their entire assets leaving the money in stable coins or even convert to fiat. The funny part is that some will use the proceeds from the Bitcoin trade to buy several altcoins/memecoins and call it diversification and when the bear season starts, where they plan to buy the bitcoin back comes, they would only buy less that the initial quantity of Bitcoin they had even when they cannot account for how they spent the proceed of the first sale during the bull market. Under this arrangement, there is no growth in terms of total bitcoin in their possession instead they experience decline. This is why I don't want to follow that approach of selling all my bitcoin during bull market with the plan of buying them back during bear market because I cannot guarantee how I will spend the proceeds and to avoid the temptation because bitcoin have remained the most reliable place to store my funds.

I will not call this lack of knowledge but personal preference. They have eyes to see how rich those who held from the early days have become. So they know how great holding for long is but decided to go for short term. It is their choice even though that is not what I consider the best practice. You do not need complicated knowledge to start investing and managing your bitcoin properly. This has been discussed several times.

I think choosing to take profits is never wrong. Maybe they determine that their current investment in Bitcoin is a short-term investment. When the time and profit level match the rules they initially set, they will take profits, whether that strategy is good or not good depends on each person's goals. I know a few friends who went through the 2021 cycle with the expectation that Bitcoin would reach 100k USD to take profits. They had really strong hands for a very long time to achieve that target, but then they missed the rising wave that year when Bitcoin price only reached 69k USD and turned around. And now, those friends of mine no longer play the old way, but they play according to every wave of the market. And from the beginning of 2023 until now, they have had very significant profits.
According to you, how long do you think long-term holding should be? Or just hold it without thinking about the profit-taking phase. This topic is clearly discussing about long-term holding, but we must know how long we will hold Bitcoin? Because basically buying Bitcoin and holding it is just an investment process, and investing requires thinking about profit. We can't just hold on without paying attention to how the market goes up or down.

As you said profiting-taking phase someone like me that started accumulating and holding  not quite long, would not think of profit-taking phase yet, because I still got a long way to go in my bitcoin accumulation to start thinking of taking profit. We all have goals in our accumulation and haven't gotten to mine yet (my fuck you status) . While those that have gotten to theirs or have accumulated some good quantity for themselves, can start putting profit-taking phase on their Mind and there's a post sir JJG posted concerning bitcoin withdrawal strategies, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479482.msg63398357#msg63398357

That is not true.  If you consider that the meaning of taking profits is that you have gotten more dollars, and then you take profits in dollars, your dollars might not be holding value as well as you believe that they are, and so you are being mislead about the benefits of taking profits and/or even when it might be prudent to "take profits."   Another thing is that if you look at bitcoin over the long term, then even if there is a lot of up and down volatility, the ultimate direction of volatility has been in the upwards direction, so taking profits from the most sound (pristine) asset that has ever existed may well end up putting you on the wrong side of the greatest wealth transfer of our time (and perhaps in history).


It is a dangerous game to be fucking around with trading the best asset... but hey do what you like and hopefully you don't get caught on the wrong side of a trade... and another problem might be playing with leverage to make it even worse if you are on the wrong side of an asset that is generally already has been winning quite a bit and likely to continue to win and you don't even have to play with leverage, which makes it available to everyone so long as they mostly buy and hold and don't be fucking around with getting in and out and taking chances.

By the way the guys who might have bought at the top of the 2021 periods are likely now back in profits, and even more so if they had been buying all along rather than fucking around with getting in and out, which might not work out very well... so in that sense, ongoing buying becomes almost a sure bet (even though nothing is guaranteed), and so even if their costs might have ended up relatively high because of their buying at relatively high price times, there were a lot of opportunities over the last couple of years to bring down their cost per BTC and to be sitting in a very good position right now, and they would not even be needing to sell, merely because if they are in profits and have the option to sell, there likely will be a lot of opportunities and additional options if they continue to hold and perhaps even continue to buy and especially if their investment timeline might be for longer terms such as for the next 4-10 years or longer.


4-10 years or longer from any additional purchase, and surely if a guy might start as a brand new investor, he might consider regular investments might take 30-40 years to play out and to start to draw from them, but it well could be the case that the time before starting to draw from bitcoin might even be reasonable to cut in half, such as 15-20 years, even though nothing is guaranteed. 

For people who are not brand new investors, they might have to consider how much of an investment portfolio that they had already built up prior to coming into bitcoin, but I would still consider that any new purchases should be considered with a 4-10 year time horizon.. and if your time horizon is less than 4 years, for every new purchase of BTC, then you may well not be a longer term investor... and you may still have your reasons for getting bitcoin exposure for shorter time periods, but I would not necessarily consider new investments of less than 4 years to be long term, but more like gambles that may or may not pay off, so there might need to be some care in regards to position size, especially when devolving into gambling rather than investing.


In long term investing, besides being narrowly focused on profits, you can also think in terms of potentially having more options, especially with an investment like bitcoin that is likely better able to hold its value as compared with the dollar or any other asset that might be held.. so if you hold long enough then your investment likely compounds upon itself, so then you have way more options if you are 3x to 5x to 10x to 50x up in profits as compared to taking simple profits that are less than 100%, which a lot of folks tend to be taking profits way too soon and then they end up interferring with bitcoin's compounding process.  Look at the power of compounding in my post  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590)that includes some examples.


To simplify some of the calculations, if you hold your BTC long enough then you likely will have more options in terms of how much profits you are already in, so let's say that your cost per BTC is around $1k per BTC.   And, so if the price of BTC is below $10k per BTC in 2020 (so you are around 10x in profits), and then if the BTC price goes up to where you are 70x in profits and then comes back down to where you are 16x.. does it make big differences if you might just cash some out at various points in time?   It is not like you necessarily have to cash out large portions at a time in order to enjoy having BTC in your holdings.

Yeah, sure you can cash out some extra when the price is 40x, 50x 60x or more, but you are not totally screwed either, even if you might have ended up having to cash out some at lower multiples of profits... and should you worry right now that the BTC price is going to go back to $20k (only 20x in profits)? 

I would think with the passage of time, you see that the 200-WMA continues to move up (which tends to mostly be a bottom indicator).  In 2020, the 200-WMA was ONLY right around $6k, and BTC's price action of 2021 brought it up to $20k, and then currently it is around $31,600.. which mean the bottom is moving up, and the bottom is now 31.6x for the guy with an average cost per BTC of $1k.  You can look at the historical 200-WMA values here (https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy).

If you are getting in and out of BTC, are you able to bring down your average cost per BTC? and/or are you able to increase your BTC stash (and your options?)  I think that you are in a much less certain place if you are getting in and out.. rather than engaging in more simple ongoing and consistent BTC building.

We are here to discuss every aspect of the issue. For you, Bitcoin is a store of value, and your main source of income lies elsewhere. But what about other people, maybe Bitcoin trading the main source of profit for them? Shouldn't they be able to trade their Bitcoins to make a profit to feed their families? And maybe the accumulated money they earn from short-term investments will be accumulated by them in Bitcoin? not fiat currency, so short-term Bitcoin trading is just their job (trader). So, what's wrong for you doesn't necessarily mean it's not right for others, right?

I agree with you about the power of compound interest, holding and accumulating a valuable asset for a long time will bring huge profits. Certainly, long-term investments should be several years or more (based on Bitcoin's growth cycle, 4 years or more is ideal), but what we are considering are ideal investment conditions when we have a stable source of income, and are not too old. For older people who don't have much time left, or those whose income is not very stable, should they not invest in Bitcoin in the short term? Bitcoin is a good asset, but everyone's investment taste is different, and each person's holding level will also be different depending on their conditions, not everyone is in ideal conditions to holding an investment for too long a period of time. The ultimate purpose of investing or accumulating valuable assets is still to serve our lives and future generations, right?

In life their are always challenges, problems are always around the corners, if you allow challenges to hold you down it will be impossible to bitcoin.  Hodling is not easy for anyone but people made it possible because of good decision to make sure they accomplished good profit holding.  If we always look up to our challenges,  we won't be to hodl bitcoin.

Well bitcoin trading may be source of income or profit for them. But if you take a close look at those who keep on trading for long , they end up getting peanuts because they don't know the power of HODLing. In HODL, the capital and the profit keeps on compounding and makes your investment hold stronger. In trading let's take for example you invested $100 and it rises by %4 and you made a profit of $4 you sell and used it for feeding everyday, you may not understand the power of HODLing because you haven't left it to compound from $100 to $104 to $110 or more as it keeps increasing you may be surprised after some month of opening you portfolio and see that you have made a hooping some of money multiply by how many years you have HODl. So every body might not be thesame but in this HODL vs TRADING can never be compared. Bitcoin HODLing is a choice and when someone is advised about HODLing don't see it as a wrong impression or a by force but he is just trying to let you know the difference between each of them, the important and the risk involved in each of them. No matter what HODLing is the best option that is the only way to win the race of Bitcoin. If those earlier adopters where trading Bitcoin till today, they will have lost hope on Bitcoin because they wouldn't notice the movement because they will have been selling the profit, making it look as if Bitcoin is not growing. Because the capital will remain thesame after selling the profit while btc price is changing on a regular.

They should. But they should know that to make more profit requires long term not just a short term. If they will do trading it should be that they have a seperate portfolio where they might have kept btc for long term and use the other CEX for trading if they chose to do trading for there feeding. Moreover for me I don't see bitcoin trading as business.

Holding or trading just like we do is working to make money and it has never been considered easy. Our lives are already difficult and will become even more difficult when we engage in risky ways of making money. But even though holding bitcoin will be more difficult than daily manual work, but if we are ready to face it and we can overcome it all. We will also receive more worthy rewards. Therefore, I think we should stop complaining once we accept to participate in the game, and if you are afraid that you cannot do it and it is too difficult for you, then it is best for you to leave the market.

They are been on those thinking that bitcoin is a pump and dump for them that's why usually what they think is they dump all the bitcoins they have once they are in profit and although this is much better but they can't maximize the bitcoin potential since for sure for holding it for more years then there's a high chance that they can get a lot of profit since bitcoins future is so promising. Although we can't deny that temptation is around but if we are truly aiming for long term we can surely figure out what's more best and other important things to do.

But if they really want to get some funds then I guess they can sell some of their profit and leave the whole large balance still at stake so that it cannot hurt so much their whole investment.

I don't have any problem with the idea in regards to talking about the advantages and disadvantages of holding and/or ways to potentially game the profitability of up and down BTC price moves - especially since the topic does have potential for exploring those kinds of angles.  Accordingly, I had not criticized your post for being off topic, but instead attempted to criticize your seeming presumption that trading in and out of positions would automatically be advantageous even if dollar profits might be assessed to have had taken place. 


Of course, if you do not have any other income and you are striving to get income from trading, then you might be in a bit of a pickle in terms of how to invest and/or set aside value in such a way that you are able to profit from the investment (in this case bitcoin) as an investment and also to be able to get the compounding value out of it that tends to come from abilities to hold it in the longer term rather than short term scalping of dollar value.



Of course, if someone does not have any other source of income, they have to generate income in some kind of way, and if their most profitable way to get income is by trading BTC and/or other kinds of trading, then that would be their circumstances and they still might need to assess the extent to which they are advantaging trading bitcoin as compared with other less pristine assets that they might trade.

I am not even proclaiming that anyone is able to invest into bitcoin or anything else unless they have some level of discretionary/disposable income.  So if someone does not have discretionary/disposable income, then they are not in a position to invest.  By the way, discretionary/disposable income is the extra income that is available after expenses are paid, so in other words, people who do not have discretionary/disposable income are not in a position to invest, and if those people are buying and selling bitcoin then they are gambling, trading and/or generating income and they are not investing... so investing still could come if they ended up generating more income than their expenses, so then if they have extra income that would be discretionary/disposable income that they could invest and/or use for extra consumption purposes

It would be their choice whether to invest with their extra income.. and part of the dilemma for the trader/gambler/someone generating income from trading is that they will frequently be tempted to use their extra income for trading purposes rather than investing with that extra income.. which could come back to bite them in the ass several years down the road when they might end up not having shit to show for all of the income that they generated through the years, but did not invest any of it but instead just traded with any extra income that passed through their hands.


I did not say anything is wrong for me.  I was attempting to describe the historical power of bitcoin as an investment and the likely continued ongoing power of bitcoin as an investment, and in the end, guys can do whatever they like, even though they might end up shooting themselves in the foot if they presume that there is value to take profits in dollars. 

Of course, as you mentioned, profits could also be taken in bitcoin, but if they put that bitcoin capital back to work and they are trading with it rather than setting it aside, then it would be much more difficult to consider any aspect of their bitcoin approach as an investment, unless they were to have some kind of system in which they are building their bitcoin in a way that does not unnecessarily put it at the extra risks of trading with it.   

One of the errors that people sometimes make, even with bitcoin, is that they wrongly conclude that there is some kind of need to earn yield or to generate profits on their BTC, which surely could end up being problematic if the bitcoin have to be stored or held by others in order to generate such yield, and if we assess bitcoin as an investment, it is already designed to pump forever in terms of its sound money attributes, and so there is no need to put your bitcoin at extra risk in order to be able to be advantaged from its sound money attributes that are more and more likely to pay off the longer that the bitcoin is held...   

In recent years, I have become increasingly bothered by attempts to evaluate bitcoin value based on spot price, even though spot price is relevant for any time that a person is going to buy or sell bitcoin - so I have tended to gravitate towards the 200-WMA as a great tool for evaluating bitcoin value - and especially becomes more and more useful for guys holding their coins for more than 4 years, and maybe even better if they are using such valuation mechanism when they are holding their BTC 4-10 years or longer.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not trying to totally poo-poo the idea of earning income from trading, because there surely may be places in which a person is able to earn more from trading rather than from doing regular work that is available in the area or available based on the persons skills and/or job experiences - even though skills and job experiences can be built up in order to increase income.  So there are trade-offs to any profession and/or how one chooses to spend time to generate income.  At the same time, I can appreciate that there can be difficulties for anyone to engage in investment practices, whether he has a separate job from trading or if his primary (or only) source of income is from trading. 

So there can be a lot of discretion regarding how much to set aside from income for investing, and through most of my life I had been saving and/or investing 10% of my income, and in my earliest years, the 10% was not very much, and there were quite a few struggles with that including figuring out where to put it, but it still can add up over the years.  I also know from my own experiences, that an overwhelming number of people are not ready, willing and/or able to even set aside 10% of their income for savings/investing.  You are not necessarily free from those kinds of considerations merely because your income source comes from trading, but I can see how a trader might have difficulties setting aside separate "don't touch" funds because there can be some value in terms of generating enough working capital in order to increase the size of his trades with the passage of time, but he still may well need to be setting some of his generated funds aside into some kind of classification of "don't touch" funds which would be considered long term investment/savings, even if he might have other funds that are his "working capital."



In the case of bitcoin, it is not really compound interest, but instead compounding value, but it is a similar idea. One of the problems with compound interest is that someone would need to pay you for that, and bitcoin is already designed in such a way that there is no need to take the extra risk for any kind of interest that you might gain from turning your bitcoin over to a third party.  ON the other hand, if there are ways to earn interest on BTC without extra counter-party risk (or only minimal counter-party risk) then that might be acceptable in some circumstances, but in bitcoin's base investing case, it is not necessary to earn interest and/or yield from it, since bitcoin is already designed to pump forever (or increase in value forever if you prefer a more neutral way of saying it).


Of course if your investment timeline is less than 4 years, then it may well be problematic to call that investing.  Of course, as an individual you can do whatever you like in terms of assessing risk and market price movements in shorter time periods, but that may well be considered as trading or gambling rather than investing, and likely in need of position size reduction in order to account for the additional risk that comes from shorter term plays.   In then end people can do whatever they like, but from my perspective it is problematic to call less than 4 year stents in bitcoin as investments, so there could be some quibbling going on here in terms of what to call it.. or how to play such short-term stents in bitcoin, if any one chooses to allocate value into bitcoin for shorter than 4-year timelines.


This is sounding a bit like a quibble over semantics, if you want to proclaim that some forms of trading still should be considered as "investments," which might not be totally wrong, even though for me it seems to mish-mash the concepts if you cannot attempt to figure out some kind of way to differentiate trading/gambling from investing... and don't get me wrong, I do agree that there are some guys who are able to structure their trades in such a way that they are never going to lose, but that is not the case for typical normal people.  Learning how to make trades profitable under all conditions is a learned skill, and some guys are better at it than others.  Investing tends to take a lot fewer skills, especially in the realm of mostly honing personal financial management skills in order to accurately calculate discretionary/disposable income and to invest within the parameters of such discretionary/disposable income which likely also includes figuring out ways to maintain and/or manage emergency funds, reserve funds and monthly cash floats. 

So yeah, I mentioned that I consider bitcoin to have a 4-10 year or more investment timeline, which is also supported by the information contained in the OP of this thread.  Of course there are other places to hold money that might have shorter-timelines and/or more guarantees not to lose money, so yeah people do need to account for their timelines in terms of where to keep their value or even how aggressive they might be in their employment of various investment approaches.


That sounds correct, yet maybe I would probably phrase it a bit differently, which might be something like the deferral of gratification today in order to have the potential of having more options in the future, whether that is for oneself or for passing to heirs.  At the same time, there are going to be balances between how much to spend/consume today versus how much to save/invest, and of course, there likely would be preferences that the savings/investments at least hold current purchasing power and potentially increase in purchasing power, while at the same time there is continuous uncertainties in terms of how to save/invest in order to not lose future purchasing power... which get's us back to the idea regarding why bitcoin is likely to serve a large role in terms of the allocation of savings/investments,

and perhaps part of the reason why between 2014 and 2020 I moved from recommending to newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) 1% to 10% in bitcoin (and during that period I would frequently suggest to just get off zero), and then from 2020 to 2023, I started to recommend 1% to 25% in bitcoin , and in 2024 I started recommending 5% to 25% in bitcoin.   Of course, people are responsible for their own choices, and they are free to allocate however, they like, and it is their choice whether to follow any suggestion from some lame rando on the interwebs, because in the end, I am not taking any responsibility for their choices to invest in bitcoin or not to invest in bitcoin or whether to trade or gamble with their bitcoin, that is on each of us to figure out what we are going to do and how we are going to spend our time, energies and value.


I still suggest that it could take 15 to 20 years for any newbie bitcoin investor to get to the point in which he is able to live off of his bitcoin without having to do outside work.  Of course, if someone comes to bitcoin after already invested in other areas, then it could be possible to cut the timeline down, including if he is close to fuck you status with whatever funds that he is reallocating into bitcoin.

If you think about it, even if a person invests 10% of his income into bitcoin, it is going to take 10 years just to have 1 year of income invested into bitcoin, and so then if his income is able to grow to entry-level fuck you status (which tends to be 20 to 30 years of income), then the ONLY ways to grow faster is that the investment must grow a lot or maybe the amount invested would have to be greater than 10%, and guys can figure out these kinds of allocation matters and also how aggressive that they are able to be in terms of investing into bitcoin and getting their bitcoin portfolio to a sufficiently large enough size in order to start to either live off of it or to have their bitcoin supplement their current income. See my post on sustainable withdrawal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213918#msg63213918) and perhaps other parts of that thread for the discussion of such sustainable withdrawal ideas.

And am pretty sure your recommendation of investing in bitcoin to others have changed alot of people lives that took action in investing in bitcoin. You're right that investing in bitcoin or other investment is ones choice, but there are some sets of People. They are some set of people who want to invest but no good guidance to lead them, while there are some who are also ready to invest but couldn't due to their financial capability,  they are some set that have the chance and the financial capability to invest but they keep procastinating, and they are also some that have the chances to invest in Bitcoin but they keep waiting for a certain deep (like from it recent price to $10k ) in market (guess they would wait till they get tired of waiting), while they are some with good guidance in investing in bitcoin not in some random shit coin and they have already started their accumulation journey (like most new users in this forum).

While those that are ready to take a stand to change their financial status, this is the right time to start. By starting your bitcoin accummulation journey, today I was bored so I decided to start calculating profit made by those that started their bitcoin accummulation around 2013 and was  able to accumulate like $500 worth of bitcoin, and hold till now . When I calculated the profit it was extraordinary, now imagine those that keep using DCA to accumulate more bitcoin from that time till now just imagine the profit they have made in just investing in bitcoin.

Hardly anyone listened in the real world.  There were a couple of examples of people partly listening, but then they end up screwing up in various ways of selling too much too soon or getting involved in shitcoins and other things like that, and sometimes they just say, I should have listened to you, and then I will say, "well get started now, it is not too late."  But they still do not tend to get started, and some of them who listen the second, third or forth time around, they still make similar mistakes of getting shaken out of their position one way or another or having "bills to pay" and blah blah blah.


Well I also suggested to people to just start with $10 per week and just get used to it, even though since 2020, I have been saying $100 per week is preferable, but still if they are whimpy about it, they can do whatever, they like and they should be able to manage $10 per week to get used to it..

I do recognize that people from poorer countries might struggle with $10 per week, so they have to figure out an amount that works for their budget, such as $10 per month, and then try to figure if there might be a way that they can increase their investment later by either increasing their income or cutting their expenses.


I am not going to deny that it is does take time to add anything to our lives, whether it is buying $10 of bitcoin per week or anything else that we might want to add.. or if we need to learn how to use a new hardware wallet. That might take time to study up on it.  So, there is a need to prioritize, and to make time for something like investing, even if it might be a relatively small amount of someones salary.. and if they don't want to think about it, then they can get involved in some of the exchanges that allow for automatic DCA on a certain day of the week or there are various ways to set it up.  I personally prefer manual DCA, but I understand that if someone does not want to think about it, then they might set up an automatic DCA and look at it every few months or whatever suits the other things going on in their lives.


Waiting is not a good strategy when it comes to bitcoin, even though buying on dips can be a decently good supplemental strategy... yet the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to buy some... so if they are waiting for a dip and they don't have any BTC then they are preparing for ONLY one direction, which seems quite dumb, unless they happen to be some kind market (or bitcoin) expert, but if they were either a bitcoin or a market expert, they would have had already bought BTC, so still what good does it do to wait, unless you really are not serious about actually investing for the long term, such as for 4-10 years or longer.

Shitcoins are a distraction, but yeah, we cannot stop people from getting distracted and/or wanting to show that they are smarter, even though they may well end up being dumber if they get sucked into that nonsense - even though many of the shitcoin's spend quite a bit of time marketing to attract money into them.


Right away tends to be the right time to start, so we cannot know if the BTC price is going to go up or down from here, yet there are ways to try to prepare for either direction, including DCA amongst the better of the tactics, but sometimes, if someone has a lump sum that they could invest they might start out with putting in a lump sum and then having some plan regarding supplementing with DCA and/or buying on dips... until they get to an accumulation position that they would like to reach.


There could be a variety of situations including mistakes along the way too.  But there also could be just general ongoing accumulation up until a point in which they might start to feel that they have enough..  but yeah over the years, some people will screw up their accumulation  and/or their holding through various periods or they might start to cash out too much too soon.  So there can be quite a few ways that guys can make mistakes, especially over a period of 11 years or so.

Sometimes they can make up for mistakes that they made by starting to employ more prudent tactics, and other times they keep making the same or similar mistakes over and over and over, even if they might be asserting that they are learning and/or improving their strategies, which may or may not end up outperforming a more straight-forward and/or modest DCA approach. 

In other words, many times a relatively modest DCA approach will outperform a lot of other methods that try to time the market, and sure I have no problem with front loading of a DCA approach or even supplementing DCA with buying on dips and/or lump sum investing, but many folks will do better with starting out with DCA because they might not have any extra cash that they can hold aside for buying on dips or extra cash that they are able to front-load their investment with lump sum investing.

There actually is, and it's called shorting. From the word itself "short" that means an investor is expecting profits within a short span, contrary to holding long term. Most traders are doing this and that's one of the major causes as to why there is a short decline whenever bitcoin made a huge pump of over $1k or two. I think that's what the person you quoted meant about "the higher the profit, the higher the risk", I presume the risks involved how much capital you're willing to short. Nevertheless, bitcoin is a lot less riskier than any other crypto in the market today. Holding it for long term will almost guarantee a profit as long as an investor will not get affected by the price swings, especially during a prolonged bear market just like in 2018.

This is very much correct that DCA calculators does not give idea of how Bitcoin will behave in the future. But to learn the real essence of DCA for long term there is no better tool then DCA calculator. They give you idea of what benefit Bitcoin gave to people who keep investing in Bitcoin continuously over a period of time. You can give different parameters to these calculators and see the results.

Once you have data from past then it can help you in making your own formula for future investment.

If you are new then start with small amount and one can increase it once he get to know about how the market behave. Anyone new to crypto market won't immediately understand about benefits of DCA, LUMP SUM and on Dips unless he start investing with his own money.  Apart from these 9 points, there are few Hypo's that can also guide you about your position if you are long term investor into Bitcoin.
 
The point is we don't know what will happen in future but we can figure out our way forward by studying the historical data available.   

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590

What I analyze is from the perspective of a trader, with their skills they can trade in the medium and short term to seek profits in USD, then they can use those profits to Buy and accumulate Bitcoin as a collateral for them. That's their job, so whether a person sells in the short or long term does not indicate that they do not view Bitcoin as an asset worth storing or see it as a gambling. You know what I mean?



I understand you. Traders are a job that requires a lot of skill, and not everyone can be successful with daily trading, especially with an asset like Bitcoin. It is really difficult for us to predict its trend, for example, currently, no one knows where Bitcoin will go, all predictions about the cycle or history no longer seem to be correct at the current stage. I also do not encourage anyone to use leverage or futures trading, because this is the fastest way to destroy all your assets if you do not have the skills.
However, what I am saying is just analyzing all aspects of a problem, whether we admit it or not, it still exists, some people hold it and some people choose to trade short-term, right? Do you agree with me that there are still people out there who are successful traders, they know what they have to do, although this number is not many. I just want to point out what's going on in the market, not try to convince anyone to trade short-term or take profits on their Bitcoin.


I don't think holding for less than 4 years is not considered investment, but gambling as you said. It depends on each person's investment taste. We are only taking the 4-year mark to correspond to the growth cycle as well as the halving cycle of Bitcoin, but what if this year the cycle is different, there are no longer 4 years but only 3 years? No one knows for sure, right? If we consider 4 years as the minimum number for investment, then will we ignore the growth cycle if it only lasts 3 years? Some people only determines it as an investment for 2 years, then at the end of 2 years they can sell it, and convert their crypto investment portfolio to another category, such as real estate, for example. Why consider them not as investors, but as gamblers?

It seems a bit problematic if you are talking about what traders can do and not incorporating what you are doing and/or planning to do - not that you have to give away any personal details, but it is starting to seem as if you are talking about theory rather than actual practice, when you talk about "the perspective of a trader" and "their skills"

Which leads me to a second point that bothers me about the idea of pumping and/or pushing the idea of trading for normies, as if all the normies should be considering trading techniques.. which surely is not true.. so in that case, fuck trading.

Normies are going to be way the fuck better off to focus on building up their BTC stash first, and if they build up their BTC stash to such a level that it is more than a year of their salary/expenses, then maybe at that point they will be in a position to trade.

Of course, there are some folks who don't have any income producing opportunities, so they may be dependent upon trading to earn an income, but those guys are likely exceptions rather than rules, so we should not be presenting the situations of the exceptions as if it were the base case - especially with an asset like bitcoin.  The odds are pretty good that you are really going to get fucked if you are trying to trade rather than just focusing on accumulating bitcoin through various buying techniques (that are also known as investing), and then when you get to a decently sized stash (maybe a year's worth of income/expenses) invested into BTC, then maybe at that point you can reassess if you want to start to use a portion of your stash for trading purposes, which also might not be an obvious answer regarding whether it would be any benefit to begin to trade rather than just accumulate bitcoin through various buying strategies..

There are situations in which a person might start to feel that he has accumulated enough or more than enough BTC, and then he would have more liberty to sell some BTC in strategic ways and possibly buy back.. but I would still suggest those stages are reached after a lot accumulation rather than a default starting position in regards how to approach your BTC accumulation journey.



I think that I see what you are saying, but you seem to be talking about and referring to specialists rather than normal people.  Sure some normal people might want to get into position of being more expert traders, but most people probably would prefer to continue to do their regular jobs and activities without having to learn specialized trading techniques.


Yes people short term trade.  It is not a good idea for an overwhelming majority of people, maybe more than 80% should not be fucking around with trying to trade, unless they limit their trading portion of their portfolio to maybe less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings, and don't allow for portfolio creep.. when they lose that 10% then they have to wait for new money to come in rather than dipping into the BTC portion of their stash in order to refuel their likely losses.


Well it seems that we mostly agree on this point, even though you seem to be promoting the idea and/or practice of trading as if it were a good idea for normies, and most likely I am disagreeing mostly with your prior lack of highlighting that trading is a specialty that takes a pretty fucking long time to learn and anyone getting into trading likely should not be fucking around with large portions of their BTC stash, and so other words, any normies who want to get into trading likely need to limit their stash while they are learning and practicing and building up their skills.. and of course, people are free to do whatever they want in terms of assessing their skills and their abilities to trade, but it also seems that a lot of folks get false senses of their own grandeur and tend to devolve into gambling while proclaiming that they are investing, when they are not.


We can agree to disagree, and when I am talking about the 4 years or longer time line to be an investor, I am specifically talking about bitcoin.


It probably also depends on the asset.


Of course we don't know with any level of certainty, but I am not going to just make up shit without assessing the asset, and with bitcoin we have had 4 year cycles and there is little to no evidence that they are stopping, even though they could end up stopping and/or lessening or changing in their patterns, that does not mean that we are better off to try to trade or to call ourselves investors who like to fuck around trying to figure out short-term waves in order to benefit from such short term price moves...

Don't get me wrong, there is no problem to attempt to prognosticate variations in the historical patterns in order to apply that to the future or even attempting to prepare oneself for variation in past patterns.. because in essence any investor should attempt to be prepared for variations in past patterns and even short term price movements that go beyond expectations, and so any investor should be attempting to already know in advance how he is going to deal with such variations, whether it is continuing to buy, buying on dips, lump sum investing or other strategies, and surely the more BTC that the person has, then they might be in a position to also incorporate selling into their strategy to play waves.. but I am not going to presume that anyone can trade their way up to having enough bitcoin. they more likely need to get to that position of having enough (or more than enough) bitcoin prior to fucking around with selling any of it...

You don't sell something like bitcoin in order to accumulate more, but you can start to sell bitcoin once you have accumulated enough and/or more than enough. .which tends to take a quite a bit of time to get to such point. .. accumulating enough and/or more than enough bitcoin is not a newbie status.. and in that regard, it is usually going to take a whole cycle to get to such status of sufficient and/or more than sufficient BTC accumulation. ...  

By the way, with your own forum registration date, maybe there can be a presumption that you have ONLY been in bitcoin for a year and a half.. so if that might be the case, then I would be having doubts that you would have had a sufficient amount of time to accumulate enough BTC or more than enough BTC in order to be fucking around with selling.. but hey you can correct me, if you have an earlier entry date or if you were able to sufficiently/adequately front-load your BTC investment in order to be in a sufficiently comfortable position to be fucking around with trying to trade the most pristine asset known to mankind, to date.


It does not matter.  Error on the side of accumulation and/or over accumulation, and then once you get to that point, then you will have more options, otherwise don't be fucking around trying to guess short-term price moves or even possible BIG waves in bitcoin.. .and I am not even suggesting to completely ignore the likely patterns including times in which we might be in blow off tops, yet even if any of us might be considering that we might be entering a blow off top periods, if we have not yet accumulated enough BTC that might not mean to sell our BTC, but of course, if we are in a position that it seems plausible to sell some of our BTC an there seems to be a blow off top, then those are our choices to consider whether to sell and how much to sell.. and whether we might or might not be wrong and if we might be selling too much of our BTC in case we might not be correct.  Yes, some of these choices depend partly upon how much BTC you might have accumulated in light of your other personal circumstances (you can see my list of 9 factors (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590) to see to what I am referring) that only you can assess. (and you might be wrong on some of them, especially if you are putting too much weight into predicting BTC prices rather than the other 8 factors).


That sounds like swing trading and not investing, but call it whatever you like.


Fuck crypto.

We are talking about bitcoin here in this thread.


This part is redundant..  seems that I already stated my position.  You can do what you like and to muddy categories (and express yourself in muddied and garbled ways) in terms of what you call people and how you treat bitcoin (and/or crypto), and I am not going to agree with the framing, even though it is not such a big deal to get into arguments about semantics, but more important to understand what you are actually doing and saying rather than getting caught up on what word(s) is (are) being used.

Maybe one further point would be that if you are valuing your wealth in short term dollars, and you might not recognize and/or appreciate the value of bitcoin as a long term investment, even though you give lip service to your recognizing and appreciating such, this could be part of the explanation why you come to conclusions that making short term dollar profits from bitcoin could still cause bitcoin to fall within the category of investment - because you are thinking in terms of scalping dollars from short-term Upward BTC price moves... so then you lock in your dollar profits, and you consider that you had invested into bitcoin and you had profited from such investment.

I am not going to give the benefit of the doubt to such arguments that value bitcoin in terms of short-term price moves, even though technically it may well not be incorrect, and part of the reason for my ongoing reluctance and stubborness in that direction has to do with what I consider to be my own appreciation of the truly grand paradigm-shifting power of bitcoin that should bring wonder and awe to anyone who truly understands what bitcoin is and what it brings to the world, besides its mere number go up technology. 

Sure, bitcoin has number go up technology, but it is a lot more than merely number go up technology since it brings options and power to those who hold it for the long term, even if the cost per BTC of some folks might be higher than others, in the end, there is a lot of power that comes from how many BTC you hold and it is likely going to continue to come to those who hold a lot of BTC... and maybe in some sense I am contradicting myself, since I already stated that there could be situations in which guys conclude that they have enough or more than enough BTC - even though at the same time there is a lot of power and prestige from holding a lot of BTC. 

In my own recognition and appreciation that we can hold enough or more than enough BTC, I am trying to also recognize and appreciate that  we are mortal and we also have consumption needs, including living in a world that has a lot of various other inferior assets and currencies that might also be included in the types of assets that we hold for the purpose of diversification and for the purpose of our own transactions and consumption.. and/or maybe our ways of also earning more value through the various other inferior assets/currencies.

yah right, though someone may claim to be a professional trader, doesn't mean that he or she would always win in their trading. Though you may be skillful as a pro trader after a long time of learning about how trading work and all that, doesn't makes losses negligible because as trader still you  can't predict the market movement , and most time  market may not move you way . The other things that differentiates a pro trader from a normies is their experience and the way they managed themselves when trading, and pro traders still make mistakes (because as humans we band to make mistakes) that may cause them huge losses now think about a normies with half-size knowledge. So I also agree that doing some regular jobs outside this space to increase your income. would be better than taking trading as a full time because is either you win or you loss. Have seen a scenario whereby someone lose his whole capital in trading expecially those that engage with future trading. That in most cases people takes trading as side hustling, as someone who's still new in this space and still have a thing for trading I would advice you to have a good job outside this space, trade wisely and as you are trading Same time try all means to allocate more percentage of your earnings in  accumulation of  some quantity of bitcoin in your portfolio (for holding) .

The word 'holdling' to me means 'patience' because any one who is not patient cannot hold and it is good for us to know that every investment comes with it's own risk so whatever investment strategy that you choose, you should be able to manage the risks that comes along with it. For me holding Bitcoin is not that difficult as some persons thinks it is because you buy, hodl and if you want to continue buying subsequently, use the DCA and watch your investment grow. I don't think there's any stress in it so the only thing difficult here is your consistency to keep accumulating when you are using the DCA so that you won't ever miss any of your buying time and for this consistency to continue then a reliable and efficient source of income would be required as that's all what you need in the hodling process.

The benefits that comes along with holding, more especially for a long time, cannot be measured with trading or doing manual works on a regular basis because those things makes you physically and psychologically unstable because it is something that is required of you at all times more like hodling and continuing other life activities.

That's a really nuanced and accurate view of the potential risks of trading, and I believe it's important to underline that for those thinking about entering into trading. It is not something that can be learned quickly, and not everyone is cut out for it. Developing proficiency in trading, like any other ability, requires time and practice. And, as you mentioned, there is a significant difference between investing and gambling. It is essential for people to be honest with themselves about their own strengths and limitations, and to avoid engaging in risky actions that could lead to financial disaster.

There is a significant distinction between investing for the long term and scalping for short-term gains. When someone buys Bitcoin and then sells it for a profit, it's easy to consider it as a simple investment, which in reality is nothing comparable to Bitcoin Investment. But when you zoom out and look at the broader picture, things get even more perplexing Investing in Bitcoin is about more than just generating a quick profit; it's about realizing the technology's potential and the long-term value it may provide to society. This is why you cannot realize the true benefits of Bitcoin by scalping for short-term profit.

Well, I believe there are many people who have a basic understanding of Bitcoin and regard it as a simple investment opportunity. They are unaware of the capabilities of blockchain technology or the broader ramifications of decentralized finance. As a result, they may only see the opportunity for a fast profit, rather than considering Bitcoin's long-term benefits. But, at the same time, I believe there are many people who comprehend the broader ramifications of Bitcoin and see it as much more than a quick profit opportunity, and these are the people who really understands and reaps the true benefit of Bitcoin.

It is true that even the most experienced traders make mistakes, and no one can foresee the future with absolute certainty. As a result, it is critical to be realistic about the dangers associated with trading and to have a risk management strategy in place. That's why I think it's so important to have other options such as having an emergency fund as well as other income streams, outside of trading. I also believe it is crucial to have a balanced life with interests and hobbies outside of trading.

One thing I learned is that some people become so obsessed with trading that it consumes their entire lives. They devote all of their time and attention to trying to make a profit, ignoring other crucial aspects of their lives. This might lead to burnout and even poor trading decisions due to a lack of self-care. So, I believe it's important to strike a healthy balance between trading and the rest of your life. Whether it means spending time with friends and family, pursuing hobbies, or simply relaxing and recharging.

Sometimes people caught up on fantasy that they can earn once they trade and became pro but they forget to know that it need full time or full attention so if they can't put their presence on their trades then there's a high chance for them to lose. That's why its never recommended for the to do it and that means trading is not for everyone. That's why there's other option that can take by busy persons or regular dudes which it doesn't need heavy technical skills and the only thing they can do is to have some plans for future then accumulate then wait for many years for bitcoin to increase its price. Although there will be a lot of challenges but if they gain experience for doing it and financially prepared for sure they can be successful on their HODL plan. At early stage of their career trading is been introduce for sure these guys will realize that to hodl bitcoins is more better option rather than trading it regularly.

Well if the trend of bitcoin is generally up (which surely seems to be the case from history and there is no real evidence that it is going to stop), then if you are selling and waiting for down, you are just being greedy, and the down may or may not end up happening, but if the trend is generally up, then there are decent odds that the down won't happen, and you will end up selling too much too soon, so even if you had gotten lucky on several occasions, it may ONLY take one time of bad luck to wipe out all of the prior gains. 

So people can do what they like, even dumb things and even screwing up a mostly HODLing and accumulating system that is bound to be considerably profitable.. but for some reason, part of the problem is the desire for even more profit than is already likely to happen through following a more straight forward strategy.

Surely during times like this many of us feel better if we had already bought and accumulated bitcoin, yet we might feel in a kind of dilemma if we don't have any BTC or we don't have many BTC, so in that regard, we end up being forced to buy if we want to benefit from the possibility (and probability) of more UP - even though psychologically it can be a bit difficult to establish a stake.  At the same time, once one establishes some kind of stake in bitcoin, then they are at least more prepared for UP than they had been without a stake.. and they have better chances for being prepared for either direction if they already have some bitcoin, versus if they are just waiting for down that may or may not end up happening.

those that kept waiting for the down is their loss, I don't see any reason or motive why one keep waiting for the dip Before they would consider accumulating , to me is just off and risky because through such act one may endup missing out. (And you don't want to experience such feeling) , they still have time to start now without even going all in at once , that why we have. DCA method, which would really help them in building good portfolio in a long run (when buying at different price interval) . Anytime I have the thought of all the opportunity have missed back then due to ignorance I always felt bad, but still any time I still think about the great opportunity that is yet to come in the nearest future it always got me inspired that there's still time to be among those that got their lives change for the better by investing in bitcoin.

If someone does not believe in bitcoin, then they might not feel FOMO or even really realize how much they are missing out until several years later, and sometimes it will be necessary to really point out the difference between investing in bitcoin versus other kinds of investments that they could have made before it might start to sink in that bitcoin would have had been a better investment.

Also, sometimes it is not really clear either regarding whether bitcoin is better or not, and several of us who have been into bitcoin longer notice these kinds of longer term trends and even some of us might become a bit wowed by how well a consistent BTC accumulation strategy ended up paying off.. and so it is even more apparent when new ATHs are being made.. but at the same time, if someone is coming in new, it could take them a whole cycle to build up their BTC holdings and even start to really be able to see positive results  (and we know that positive results are not guaranteed, either, so position size has to be accounted for in order to realize that positive results are not guaranteed).

Absolutely! Bitcoin's history has demonstrated that its price can fluctuate dramatically. While the overall trend has been upward, this is not guaranteed to continue indefinitely. Attempting to time the market by buying low and selling high may appear to be a wise decision, but it is ultimately a gamble. You might be lucky a few times, but one bad call might wipe out all your winnings.

Investing in Bitcoin should be considered a long-term plan. Focus on the larger picture rather than attempting to predict what the price will do in the short term.



You're right! When it comes to investing, especially in a volatile market like Bitcoin, it's all too tempting to become greedy. People can become so focused on the prospect for large profits that they lose sight of the larger picture and make decisions based on emotions and FOMO rather than logic and strategy.

The irony is that by attempting to time the market and earn even more money, many investors wind up missing out on returns that would have resulted from a more disciplined, long-term strategy.


Buying and holding Bitcoin can be a bit of a mental balancing act, especially when the price is rising. On the one hand, not owning Bitcoin may make you feel like you're missing out on possible earnings. On the other hand, it can be difficult to make the decision to buy in when price is already high. That's why it's important to remember that Bitcoin is a long-term investment, so we should always try to see the broad picture. Purchasing and holding even a small amount now could yield significant returns in the future.
Once you've purchased some Bitcoin, you'll likely feel more invested (literally and figuratively) in its future success. This can result in a shift in mindset—rather than fretting about short-term price fluctuations, you may begin to think more long-term, paying greater attention to industry trends and potential new Bitcoin use cases. You may even find yourself delving deeper into the realm of bitcoin, learning about it and blockchain technologies.

Essentially, purchasing Bitcoin can begin a path of discovery and growth that extends beyond simply holding a piece of digital asset.

People who aren't convinced about Bitcoin may not see the potential benefits right away. It's like trying to persuade someone who has never had sushi that they are missing out on something incredible—they may not understand until they give it a try. Even yet, the lighting moment may take some time to occur.
As a Bitcoin lover, it's heartbreaking to see people miss out on possible income and benefits. However, keep in mind that not everyone will immediately join the train. Patience and education are crucial when it's comes to telling people about Bitcoin.

Spreading the Bitcoin gospel can be difficult, but patience and education will serve you well. Not everyone will get crypto fever right away, and that's fine. But if you persist with it, you might be able to show others the potential of Bitcoin and why it could be a good investment.
Consider it that you're not attempting to force anyone to use Bitcoin; you're simply planting the seed of an idea. With time and exposure, that seed may blossom into a greater understanding and interest in Bitcoin. And who knows. They may even thank you for showing them the light of Bitcoin

They also forget to use Bitcoin as a benchmark from where the value of their capital is based from? Why? Because if a "trader" can't outperform Bitcoin, then why be a "trader"? Simply be a HODLer and try add units in your capital in Bitcoin by buying the DIP and/or DCA.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


There probably should be a service that accepts Bitcoin as collateral for borrowing fiat, then use the fiat to earn in money market funds.

It's really nice to make a long-term investment in bitcoin; in fact, every time the appropriate year comes, you will decide if you will sell some of the profits you get from it. Then save again little by little; that's the simple thing to do, right?

Especially now that Bitcoin is doing well in the market, even though the price value of bitcoin continues to increase, the number of people who buy bitcoin in the field industry of the crypto space continues to increase.

Well, those who have belief issues with Bitcoin are doing harm to themselves. With so much data available about bitcoin that clearly tells how Bitcoin price has gone up from zero dollars to 70k in 13 years. There are online calculators available that tells you what benefit in past DCA and Lump Sum has given to investors. After going through all that data if somebody still has belief or trust issues with Bitcoin then we must not waste time in convincing that guy about Bitcoin. 
But I tell you one thing that more you go into Bitcoin more is your belief. As you go on investing in Bitcoin and try new techniques then your belief got more strengthen about Bitcoin. 

Most people are just being mislead, like my self back then didn't have any believe in bitcoin I was only engaging with some shitcoins (wasting my time and funds) , having the mindset that I could become rich overnight when engaging with different shit coins but I at the end I got myself rekt. So ever since then have learned my lesson, I decided to know more about bitcoin, and as I continue I became more passionate about it (bitcoin) , so most time I normally have this thought that , had I known I wouldn't have waste my funds in some shitcoins back then I would have invested it in bitcoin and would be in far more better profit that I am in now , but well I know if I continue my DCA strategies and other related strategies in accumulating bitcoin, I would definitely build a good and portfolio for myself even though it may take a whole cycle. So those that haven't started yet (no coiners) is still early for you to embark in this journey of accumulating bitcoin.

They are in belief that being a trader is the way to riches but they don't realize that it's the hardest path and we've got some easiest strategy and that's effortless through DCA.

Being a holder and just adding up more bitcoins by having buying is what they just have to realize that they'd able to see why we keep on telling and suggesting people to do it.

No need to get into the battle of hassle with other traders when you can HODL and DCA.

You're precisely right, Mate. Those who dismiss Bitcoin despite all of the facts and evidence pointing to its potential benefits are truly missing out. It's similar to being offered a golden ticket to a magical chocolate factory but declining because you're unsure if it's the real deal.
The evidence is clear: Bitcoin continues to rise in value, and adopting DCA, Lump-sum, and other efficient investment strategies can help maximize profits. However, some people are simply averse to change and new ideas, particularly when it comes to investing, and appear to be blind to the golden opportunity that is right in front of them.

When it comes to Bitcoin, some people may be feeling like Chicken Little, convinced that the sky is falling and that investing in Bitcoin is a dangerous proposition. However, if you delve a bit deeper, you will see that the facts do not support this timid approach.
The basic conclusion is that you cannot let fear prevent you from looking into opportunities such as Bitcoin.
Investing in Bitcoin is similar to riding a rollercoaster, although this is common for new and innovative technology. There may be ups and downs, but if you're bold enough to get on board, it can be an exciting journey. Those who question Bitcoin's potential are missing out on a huge opportunity.

Bitcoin has demonstrated its long-term viability and continues to gain traction as more people recognize its potential.
While the value of Bitcoin is volatile, it has shown to be more than a passing fad. In reality, it has been thriving for almost a decade, and its popularity continues to rise. It is not a transitory fad, but a genuine alternative to traditional fiat that is here to stay.


Indeed the allure of get-rich-quick schemes is indeed very common amongst new investors and Bitcoin enthusiasts. It's very easy to fall into the trap of believing you can strike it rich overnight with shitcoins, but the reality is mostly a very harsh dose of FOMO and a drained bank account.
It's good you learned your lesson, you really don't have to beat yourself up because you made that mistake because you're not alone in that journey and many successful Bitcoin investors have made even far more mistakes before coming to the realization that Bitcoin is the way. The most important thing is that you've realized your mistake and learned from your experience and are now taking a more measured and thoughtful approach to investing in Bitcoin.
Investing in Bitcoin might seem a bit slow at first, but the most important thing is that you get started and you stay focused and set your target always on the goal even in the face of market fluctuations.

It cannot be denied that buying and holding bitcoins is the safest way to invest in bitcoins, but for those with the ability and skills to trade, trading to increase the amount of bitcoins is not so bad. Just because we can't win at trading doesn't mean everyone is like us. I have a friend who makes a living as a day trader and so far he's been fine. It can be said that everyone has different skills, so we should know who we are and what our strengths are so that we can make appropriate choices that bring the best benefits to us. Don't imitate others just because they are successful that way, each person has a different path to success.

Many people will leave the most important part out of the sentence, which is being the BEST top 10% of active traders. Believing that merely becoming "a trader" as a pleb with low capital would be enough. Plus if a person is a profitable trader, but his/her profit is just 15% better than Bitcoin, would it truly be worth the stress and anxiety? It probably will be for people who do not value their mental sanity and time outside of cryptocurrency trading. But if you ask me, outperforming Bitcoin by a mere 15% is disappointing in my opinion.

Trading may be a dangerous route to wealth, particularly in the unpredictable world of bitcoin. While some traders may strike it rich, many others will be left holding the bags.
The DCA technique provides a much smoother path to success. By investing a certain amount of money at regular intervals, irrespective of the market's ups and downs, you will gradually construct a strong portfolio that will stand the test of time. It's a straightforward and stress-free technique that doesn't require any market timing or complex trading strategies.

So, why risk losing money in the trading game when you can sit back, relax, and let the power of DCA do all the heavy lifting for you, relieving you of the worry of trying to time the market or finding the optimum time to make your investment?
The power of DCA is similar to having your own personal savings superhero! By investing a set amount of money in Bitcoin on a regular basis, you can benefit from the market's volatility. Over time, you'll end up buying more Bitcoin when the price is low and less when the price is high, balancing the costs and allowing you to develop a robust portfolio without having to worry about timing the market.






Absolutely! Not everyone is cut from the same cloth when it comes to investing, and that's fine. Some people are natural traders, able to navigate the market's ups and downs and come out on top. But, let's be honest, trading is a high-risk game that may quickly result in tears if you don't know what you're doing.
The majority of people believe that purchasing and holding Bitcoin, typically referred to as "HODLing," is the safest and most trustworthy method. It may not be as thrilling as trading, but it's a good strategy to build up your Bitcoin holdings over time.

Investing in Bitcoin is similar to playing chess: there are various approaches you can choose from, and the one that works best for you is determined by your individual talents and risk tolerance.
If you're an inexperienced investor, the buy-and-hold approach is a good pawn move. It may not be glamorous, but it is a consistent strategy to grow your Bitcoin holdings over time. And, let's be honest, not everyone has the knowledge or risk tolerance to be a day trader or swing trader—those are more akin to the queen, a powerful piece that demands ability and strategy to use well.

You hit the nail on the head! Becoming a successful trader is more than just deciding to trade; it's about being in the top 10% of traders, which is no simple accomplishment. And even if you manage to outperform Bitcoin, is it really worth the stress and anxiety if you only see a 15% return?

Let's be honest: the majority of traders will wind up with less Bitcoin in their pockets than if they simply HODL'd. And if you're someone who values his mental health and is still considering trading, then you're not doing yourself any good, because trading comes with a lot of mental stress, which isn't ideal for someone who values his mental health. so rather than putting yourself through all that pressure, why not just HODL and save yourself all the trouble.

I will not want to encourage anyone to trade Bitcoin, it most times don't end well and make people have bad things to say about bitcoin. As we are discussing how to hold for long time, discussing trading of bitcoin here might be out of place. There is a proper section for trading and that place is agoge with different trading strategies that can be used to supposedly increase the Bitcoin.

You already supported the fact that buying and holding bitcoin is the safest way to invest in Bitcoin, why will you jettison the safest way for some risky way with promise of huge gains that is not even guaranteed? It is not the best way to go about investing in bitcoin. I started as a trader so I know how tricky it can be even to those who think they have mastered the skills. More often than not, people end of losing their entire assets to trading when they were hoping to make major wins. Therefore, buying bitcoin and holding is the best approach.

The truth is that majority has failed to recognize the long term potential that Bitcoin holds, they are carried away by short term profits which can not in any way be compare with the substantial benefit of long term Bitcoin investment where you will have the compounded value of your investment over time, Bitcoin investment is best for long term perspective and not for short term trading, Bitcoin is also known as a store of value and wealth for future generation. Trading is very complex even to old and experience one and there is much emotional devastation monitoring the market movement making it very risky but with your dca in long term investment you have the peace of mind needed to grow your asset.

Yeah yah damn right , Trading with emotion can take a toll on your mental health, back then when was still basing in trading , my trading section normally determine my mood of that day either causing anxiety, fear, frustration. But ever since being holding bitcoin I don't actually feel more stress or show any signs of panicky, because I know that is bitcoin am holding not some shit coin . Because any time bitcoin undergo decrease in value it always bounce back stronger . So there's no need to show any fear , and one criteria of being an investor is to be ready for any thing.

Due to greed most people don't have fixed mind in long-term investment, all they care about is the amount they can make instantly, leading most of them to start gambling with their funds in the name of short-term investments, and engaging short-term investments at time like this can be more risky, like the first time  bitcoin hit $70k first  its new ATH after the previous one which is years back . Bitcoin did correction to the price range of $59k and am pretty sure that most people that did short-term trading endup selling in losses. Well some to added leverages would endup liquidating themselves. But those that are HODL didn't show any panick or fear those that are still accumulating kept their accumulation going. Now look at the price now is around $72k . And there's still chances of bitcoin hitting $80k and above before the halving .

I don't see the extends of one trading with their bitcoin while they could just hodl . One to be able to master trading it take alot of time and skills, too while come to investing ones you understand the basic and you acquired a good noncustodial wallet yah good to go.

I don't think they were trying to conclusively decide for everyone, they where probably mapping out dangers from their own perspective on the dangers, stress and anxiety to be faced while doing more of trading than holding. What now causes majority people to trade is due to greed and lack of patience to hold for long time, they quickly want to earn profits not even test running if they are capable of doing it and we can see some of them at the very end left with nothing to talk about.

I couldn't agree more with you mate.
To encourage someone to go into Bitcoin trading without first warning him about the potential risks involved in trading is just like handing the person a lit stick of dynamite without first informing the person that it's gon explode.
It's important to always tell people and make them see that Bitcoin investment isn't like Altcoins and shitcoins, which involves gambling your funds, all in the name of cryptocurrency investment. It's important to always make them see that when the topic of Bitcoin investment comes up, the first thing that should come into the mind is 3 things.
1. BUY
2. HODL and
3. LONG-TERM
When talking about long-term Bitcoin holding, it's essential to focus on the merits of buy and hold approach without getting lured into the pitfalls of trading. I'm not saying that Bitcoin trading is completely bad, no, I'd be damned if I said so, all I'm saying is that it's not the right and best approach to employ when investing in Bitcoin, especially for new investors. So it's not the right subject for this discussion.

By keeping the conversation focused on the advantages of buy and hold approach for Bitcoin, you can offer a more balanced view of Bitcoin investment. you'd  providing a more clearer picture of the potential benefits of Bitcoin without actually leaving out any important details about the risks associated with trading.



When it comes to Bitcoin investing, the great majority of people miss the big picture. They're so focused on short-term gains that they overlook the enormous possibilities of long-term investing.
Buy-and-hold investing, also known as DCA, is the best approach to increase the value of your Bitcoin investment. By investing little amounts on a regular basis over time, you may avoid making emotional decisions and capitalize on Bitcoin's development potential.
When you invest in Bitcoin utilizing the DCA technique, you are effectively hedging the odds. By investing little amounts on a regular basis, you can buy Bitcoin at different prices.

This means you're not just buying when the price is high, but also when it's low, allowing you to average out your investment costs over time.
In the long run, this method can help you avoid the traps of attempting to time the market, which is extremely hard even for experienced investors. And when Bitcoin's price eventually rises again, you'll be rewarded with a bigger overall return on your investment.


That's right, Mate. Trading with emotions is like attempting to swim with a heavy weight on your back; it won't go well. But if you're in it for a long time with Bitcoin, it's like wearing a life jacket—you're safe and comfortable knowing that Bitcoin has a proven track record of recovering stronger following price drops.
As a Bitcoin investor, it is critical to acquire a long-term attitude and a healthy sense of detachment. Remember that you're in it for the long run, so don't let short-term volatility undermine your faith.
Trust in Bitcoin's resilience and potential for long-term growth, as these are the two most important qualities that make it an excellent choice for long-term investors. Despite its volatility, Bitcoin has a history of weathering storms and emerging stronger than before, making it a compelling alternative for people with a high risk tolerance.


It is no longer news that greed and impatience have led many Bitcoin traders into trouble. It's like the gold rush all over again, with people pursuing rapid profits only to come up empty-handed when the market reverses.
In the world of Bitcoin, remember that slow and steady wins the race. Trying to time the market is a fool's errand that usually results in nothing but a handful of dust. However, if you can keep your head in the game and adhere to a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, you'll not only save yourself from the mental stress that comes with trading, but you'll also maximize even more earnings overtime.

By investing in Bitcoin for the long term and refusing the temptation to trade based on short-term market fluctuations, you increase your chances of achieving steady, long-term growth.
When you invest in Bitcoin for the long term, you aren't trying to time the market or predict short-term trends. Instead, you're investing in Bitcoin's future ability to develop and impact the global economy, as well as reaping the benefits of compounding theory.

I don't think it is correct that majority of those involved in Bitcoin traders because if you smell the air, you will realise the number of people actively trading Bitcoin have diminished so much following the transition of many traders to short term holders, who I think are in the majority now.

Most people hold just within Bitcoin market cycle of 4 years, buying during the bear season and selling during the bull market like some are already doing now. Some of the whales go about Bitcoin investment this way as well.

Following the realisation that long term holding is actually the best, many people are gradually tilting towards that direction just like it happened between trading and short term holding.

this is the thread we all need now , HODL as bitcoin is strongly moving forward ,
in the sooner time we will be seeing breaking 75k in which the strong barricade now and
if this continue then maybe the 80k in which my target this before halving to release some
of my holdings for profit taking.

Most people will say there are experienced and professional traders who know how to make a good profit when trading bitcoin. It makes me wonder whether these people do not lose when trading. They have made it sound like they are perfect traders and that nothing goes wrong when they trade. My dear, there is nothing like a perfect trader; rather, I will call them gamblers who get lucky most of the time. The risk in trading is what i cannot see myself doing. Only one person who is financially strong, like a wealthy person, may be comfortable trading bitcoin.

And I also don't understand why someone would choose to trade rather than invest for a long time. Its just like someone coming down from a train and starting to use his leg to work. Trading takes you a long time to achieve your target. Since it involves losing and winning every day, it delays accumulating enough bitcoin unless that was not the plan in the first place. Something that would take you a year to accumulate might end up taking you a year and extra half.

We cannot deny the fact that in this kind of market now many sentiments and attitude of peoplewill comes out , some wanted to earn easy while others wanted to keep their coins intact.
either greedy or weak the thing here is that we cannot hide our self from desiring the profit from this market on.

In terms of the safest way for long-term investment, it is true that it is proven and tested. Now, I just want to be true. Maybe to others, they can give negative feedback to what I say, but I'm just being true. I'm not a rich person; I'm just one of those who want to rise or advance in life.

In these times, there are people who really want me to achieve my dream in life, and from what I've seen, the bitcoins I can accumulate will not be enough for those I target to buy the dreams they want. Bitcoin because in this upcoming bull run it is only possible to multiply 6x by 7x again. Unlike other top altcoins, my chances are higher if I can actually achieve my goal. But if I were just a rich person, there is no doubt that I would prioritize buying Bitcoin.

I'm very confident that most of us plebs who "traded" during the last cycle, denominating their capital/portfolio in fiat, currently have LESS value denominated in Bitcoin today. Because we're mere plebs, and because we can't truly win/out-trade those professional traders and their army of trading bots, then the best decision we can do is merely to denominate our capital in Bitcoin by HODLing everything in Bitcoin.

Surely, I don't advocate for trading in order to build up your BTC holdings, yet if you are in the stage of building up your bitcoin holdings, then the best way to do that is to continue to buy in various ways, whether DCA, lump sum buying and/or buying on dips... so then once you get enough or more than enough BTC, then you can start to sell them as the price goes up... so then there would no longer be goal to have more BTC as the price goes up.

So one of the BIG questions relate to how much BTC (satoshis) is enough and when you can conclude that you have enough and you are in a position in which you can start to feel comfortable to start to sell some of your BTC as the price goes up and/or just on a regular basis as a percentage of your holdings to sell regularly as a source of your main income or to supplement other income sources that you have.

Maybe a formula that I would use to determine if you have enough bitcoin would be to consider what is your annual expenses in the standard of living that you would like to enjoy and multiply that by 25, and if your BTC stash (as measured by the 200-WMA) is within 75% of that amount, then you likely are at the entrance level of having enough which means that you are likely ready to start to employ some kind system in which you are drawing upon your bitcoin stash, whether merely on price rises or maybe you want to just start to withdraw regularly on a monthly basis.. or some other period that is comfortable for you.

Buying and holding Bitcoin for the long term was already proven and tested, and as far as I can see, it is very favorable for rich people, and there are large companies and several businesses. Especially for people who want a big ROI on their capital.

Now if there are ordinary people who are in the middle class who save bitcoin via dca, they will also experience earnings in the end, but it won't give them much profit because they won't be able to handle that much, but they are sure that they will get profit from their holdings.

The long and short answer is .. yes. I can only explain what I do in my personal portfolio. I believe less is more, I am a growth investor .. I own seven stocks and seven crypto, I consider my portfolio almost complete.

… less stocks, none of them paying dividends allows

My crypto holdings are for more than long term, I never plan to sell unless a need arises .. we are talking years. I hold BTC, . and my largest holding of tens BTC in my wallet . Yes!! … I believe in BTC .. long term .. it “will” moon just like I believe BTC seven year ago that  will eventually become a three digit value equity far beyond contemporary expectations. I have reasons for this belief.

.. earlier I said my portfolio is “almost” complete, I leave space in the ultra-condensed 14 item portfolio for one (or two) yet to be decided additional cryptos .. I also keep buying bitcoin ready on the sidelines for this yet to be decided purchase. You are correct, when I see one that I expect to 10x, I will trigger the buy and my list will complete at 15 or 16 holdings .. seven equities + seven (plus one or two cryptos.)

Crypto is a utility product, it is also heavily dependent on pumps .. yet, long term the new era will greatly reward those with diamond hands, in other words, paper handing and crypto cannot and will not work. Trying to predict tops and bottoms is futile.

… volatile equities with no dividends, growth, high risk held long term will reward those who follow this path, .. guaranteed, … but only if you ‘hodl.’

.. you cannot chase a 10x move, you research and then you make your selection and buy in quantity, .. and hold i.e. ‘hodl’ .. it does not happen overnight but the upward move finds you, .. most often on a day when you least expect it.

On the contrary, holding Bitcoin is ideal for both the rich and those that are not there yet. Bitcoin can even be their means of escape from poverty as it has proven to be able to change the financial situation of many people including the early adopters that are very much present in the forum till date.

There are people who has the word "donator" attached to their name in the forum, some of them donated as high as 10 BTC to the forum and as at then, 10 BTC was like peanut that anyone could easily afford then. Imagine those who were able to hold that amount till date, can you call such person poor? I gave this example so you can see that Bitcoin can make someone rich, you just need to HODL and see how happy and proud it will make you become in the future.

You have to adjust your mindset a great deal because you are neglecting the power of consistency. If you consistently invest $100 per month into Bitcoin via the DCA method, give yourself 10 years from today, you will be financially comfortable.  An average worker will be able to make such investment depending on their country of origin and what the minimum wage is. But the crux of the matter is that investment in BItcoin can make someone rich and the DCA method, which can be applied by anyone, is one way of achieving that.

Yes, you are right, holding Bitcoin in the long term will of course provide profits for those who can run well according to the capital they have and for those who have large capital of course they can buy in large amounts to wait until the profits arrive, but for those who Collecting Bitcoin using the DCA method of course depends on how much they can collect and whether they can collect it and will be able to get a profit according to what they collect.

yeah are actually right . What one really need to invest in Bitcoin is just some good principles and also one need to be patient in order to hodl, most early Investor might have sold their bitcoins while some where patient enough to keep accumulating and hold till now. Those that believe in Bitcoin and was patient enough to hold till now would definitely be proud of their past selves to take such decisions or to have such  mindset to hold that long. Like we that still far from our bitcoin accumulation goal , still have a long way to go , but already set my mind for long-term investment (because if those early Investors was able to hold this long) so am I. I would try and discipline myself and keep learning from early Investors while looking up to them, because they are inspiration when it come to bitcoin investment or holding.

That's a question without a right answer because if you ask twenty different people "How much Bitcoin is enough", they probably will give you twenty different answers which depends upon their situation in life, their age, their technical understanding/how much they care about learning the technical side, and the amount of conviction. I believe the amount of conviction would increase if investors had more understanding about the incentive structure and the game theory behind Bitcoin.


👍

A simple guideline that's modifiable to meet the requirements of each individual.

Holding bitcoin is very much possible only if people are will to do right thing. It is possible to hodl bitcoin if people have the understanding that bitcoin is not a means of having quick money.  Depending in bitcoin too much as a source of income has always been the challenge why people see bitcoin very difficult to hodl.  Get a source of income and invest in bitcoin with the amount you can't afford to lose and it will be very possible to hodl bitcoin without having any challenge.

Hodl.camp is a pretty amazing tool. I like the fact that you can change the colors to make the losses and gains more emphasized. Personally I'm not a big fan of the default red/green color combo as it's harder to make out the shades of reds indicating loss. Blue/orange combo is much better and go together as more stark complementary colors in my opinion.

Never hold bitcoins for those who invest in bitcoins looking for quick money making schemes. People will learn to Hodl Bitcoin only when they have the ability to hold Bitcoin and plan to hold it for a long time. If you keep bitcoin as a source of income, you will have to wait for a long time, but you will get good amount of profit from here. If you choose Bitcoin as a source of income, then you must be patient and face various challenges. This formula is for everyone, invest the money you can afford to lose, otherwise you can't earn depending on vinegar. And invest bitcoin and Hodl a hold patiently, only then you can earn from it in future.

I advocate that holding bitcoin is the safest way to invest, but I am not saying that it is the way to make the best profits. Just because you like safety with moderate profits doesn't mean everyone likes safety and peace as much as you do. Each person has different investment preferences, strengths and skills. I have been making profits from trading and using those profits to reinvest in many different projects. So why should I stop trading just because you and some other people are not making profits from trading? DO NOT imitate others but also do not impose your thoughts on others.

Why do people who cannot make money from trading start thinking that it is not a good investment method? Just like altcoins, many investors are profiting from altcoins, memes... while bitcoin maximalists go around saying bad things about others. Would doing so help us deliver better returns than those investing in altcoins?

Bitcoin is a wise investment. I understand your trading and reinvesting points. Making money is great. Great, even. Not everyone has Midas' touch. Not everyone can make a dollar trading to save their lives, and thats okay. Not everyone is like us.

Why cease trading? Do not! Take advantage of your skills. Utilise it fully. Bitcoin remains steady while you swing for the fences. Backbone, rock-solid cornerstone of your portfolio. As others chase the next great cryptocurrency or meme coin, Bitcoin remains the gold standard. True crypto value is measured by it. Diversify and trade, but never underestimate Bitcoin's power. Safety is important, but so is wisdom and long-term vision.

That's what matters when you're holding bitcoin. You shouldn't depend on it as if it's going to give you daily income. The profit that you'll get from it will be coming from how long you hold it as the market gets into fruition and takes time in doing so. Most of the holders that are successful understood this matter and they have just left their Bitcoin on hold and does their things while waiting for its value to pump. Unlike the newbies that think that it's different the way you've described it, they don't realize that they need to have other source still.

Maybe if anyone likes the above formula, then i could give a specific example to attempt to flesh it out.  Let's say that a person has been investing into bitcoin for several years, so he has already built a BTC stash, and he would like to get to passive income of $3,000 per month, and so that would mean that the ONLY thing that he has to do for the income is just to keep track of the accounting.  No more need to do any work for that money, so any extra work would be optional because he has considered $3k per month to be enough.

That is $36k per year (12 x $3k) and if we multiply by 25 that would be $900k, and if we multiply that by 75% that would be $675k.  If we look at the 200-WMA right now, then coincidentally 21k BTC would meet those requirements.  You can see that here (https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy?U2FsdGVkX1/m/UuVMpMx74ZlQsva0EGYSaWI0Y1kE9stxo9nErk63mGxRqqh8NY73B/H4Ng4wR840cUnIy//BA==).  Depending on the BTC price, you could choose to just start to withdraw $5k worth of BTC per month, and the amount of BTC would vary between 4% currently and maybe even 10%, and I personally consider those numbers to be sustainable as long as we would be using the 200-WMA as our way of valuating our BTC, and if our withdrawal rates are low, the dollar value of our holdings (in terms of the 200WMA) will continue to go up, even though the amount of BTC would continue to go down from continuing to draw upon it.

Now the other thing is that if you do not currently have 21 BTC and you consider that you might never be able to get to 21 BTC, then you would merely have to project out into the future (and you can use my entry-level fuck you status chart  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591)for that - to see how the 200-WMA/Bottom is projected to move up), and so in one or two years, you would likely ONLY need around 10 BTC to achieve the same results.. and so far in bitcoin the amount of BTC that you need has continued to go down, so it is merely a matter of figuring out your target amount and your target timeline, to keep building towards being able to potentially get to a point where the paths of both quantity and time cross over.

There are no guarantees, but continuing to work in a certain direction allows for the possibilities of increasing your chances in which your timeline and your quantity of BTC will cross over to a high enough amount for your personal situation.


Investing and trading are not even close to being equal, and so trading and getting involved in shitcoins deserves to be bashed, especially since an overwhelming number of normies are going to be way the fuck better off to not get involved in trading, but focusing on building their BTC stash through various forms of buying, whether DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.

Anyone who wants to figure out some formulas to trade BTC and/or get involved in trading shitcoins, is going to need to spend a lot of time and potentially money in terms of diluting their ability to invest into bitcoin if they are trying to make money by buying and selling whether it is bitcoin or some shitcoins.

Another problem with trading bitcoin is that historically it has trended up, so there is already a formula in place in which you advantage by merely buying it, so why screw up a good thing by wanting more when there is already a good formula that already exists?   Most likely an overwhelming majority of folks are not going to be able to trade more profitably than just buying and holding bitcoin. and sure there could be some exceptions and people can do whatever they like - especially if they might have some special skills that most people do not have.

Look at your own situation @Iranus.  Have you been able to beat a fairly strict DCA strategy?  You have been involved in this forum since the beginning of 2016, and so if you had invested $100 per week into bitcoin since the beginning of 2016, you would have had invested nearly $42k, and you would have $15.1106 BTC (currently valued at nearly $1.1 million - which would be right around 26x profits).  Are you doing better than that?  And even if you are? Why do you need to do better than that?  

Historically many normal and not sophisticated people could have been just doing their normal job and/or or life activities and invest into bitcoin on a regular basis and gotten a 26x return over the past 8 years.... why fuck around with trading and more likely having worse results.  Go on @Iranus tell us if you have beaten those results with your own supposed equally good approach to bitcoin and/or shitcoins.

For sure, past results do not guarantee future results, yet bitcoin remains with a very strong investment thesis, and likely even a stronger investment thesis now versus what it was in 2016... so I see almost no reason or justification for an overwhelming majority of normal people to even come close to getting tempted by the lures of trading and/or getting involved in pump and dump bullshit that is also known as shitcoins.  


There is no need to diversify and trade.. especially for new investors. It can take a long time to build up an investment portfolio, so there is no need to complicate matters with distractions and dilution of value in terms of believing that there are any needs to diversify. 

In bitcoin, you can start out by only balancing out your cash levels and your BTC, and then maybe once your BTC and/or cash levels build to a certain large size of one or more years of your income, then at that point there may be some need to consider whether and the extent to diversify into things like equities, properties, commodities, bonds and/or cash equivalents (surely not referring to getting involved in shitcoins as a means to diversify).   

People will reach a threshold in which it makes sense to diversify at differing points of their own balancing if they might have too much value that they are holding in only BTC and cash and it might start to make sense to diversify, but we still need to be careful to not overly dilute our bitcoin investment, and for example someone might consider that they are going to take out some of their BTC investment in order to buy property (which is likely an inferior investment for a lot of reasons), and so sometimes it might not be worth it to diversify in certain assets if it is going to overly take too much capital away from such a great investment like bitcoin, yet people will sometimes get excited and/or mixed up in terms of what is an investment versus something that might be ONLY partially an investment but with a lot of other baggage such as depreciation, expenses and some burdens of the physicality that need to be balanced into the considerations.

Holding Bitcoin may not be a means of getting quick money because the investment is kept for a long time but that does not mean that Bitcoin does not offer quick money. As a matter of fact, Bitcoin investment seems to be one of the fastest means of increasing one's money. It gives the fastest and easiest profits among several investment portfolios that I know. Within a period of 5 years, an investor in Bitcoin would have broken even and even make far higher than 50% in profits. This is rarely obtainable anywhere.

Those who bought Bitcoin early last year have made over 200% profits, if this is not quick money, then I don't know what is quick money. Even though there is no guarantee that the profits will always happen this fast and huge, we must admit that Bitcoin also offer opportunity for quick money although the best is to hold for a long time.

Of a truth, when we talk about an investment that gives quick profits, then Bitcoin cannot be exempted because some persons feels that when we are talking about quick money, we are referring to investment we make now and maybe begin to reap the dividends tomorrow but however it doesn't work that way at all because whomever that made investment and start making good profits within 5-6 years it's still regarded as quick money because their are investments that one can venture into that can take almost about 10-15 even 20 years before making a good profit so definitely investing is Bitcoin is more or less a get quick rich project though it might not occur as soon as possible but one can be guaranteed that your investments are safe and there are every possibility that one is gonna make huge profits in the long run.

anything related to investing now and start reaping the dividends the next day, ain't no investment but a Ponzi scheme. Such do exist and  alot of people normally fall victim cause of greed. Seeing a platform that may promise to double their funds (doubler) the next day if they invest a certain amount of money . And at the end if they do so they would endup not being able to withdraw their funds back , not only losing the extra funds but also their hard earn funds . Bitcoin may not be such that may get you rich overnight. But holding Bitcoin for long minimize the risk in it, and when holding you don't require any skills like those who are trading (making trading not for everyone). While anyone can start holding and accumulate Bitcoin anytime that they please without any technical or trading skills needed. All one need is a good source, inorder for them to keep purchasing more quantity of bitcoin and also be able to have good emergency funds to coverup any expenses so that one would not tamper with their investment

No one can get rich overnight by investing there is risk. As far as I'm concerned holding bitcoins involves people's own decision and it's not possible to get money from here in a day, it's a long term wait. Don't think of bitcoin as the only source of income. Besides other means of income, bitcoins should be invested based on own money. By holding bitcoin, there is less risk of loss and profit without any challenge if the price rises.

Exactly and that shouldn't have been the thing that someone should be doing with bitcoin anyway, the mere fact that the growth of bitcoin isn't going to happen overnight and the daily movement of it's price is so volatile that we're all warned to take precautions when trading and only trade what we can afford to lose means that we all should've been not relying on bitcoin as a means to make money for our daily needs and at the end as you've said, bitcoin's better when you're hodling it the longer. My take on this people that are still doing this reliance on bitcoin for daily money is that they're admirable because they don't mind the risk and that they're crazy enough to do this not just once or in a day.

The price of bitcoin increases as the time passes so if someone hold it longer without selling it at any stage during fear will get huge profit. The profit from Bitcoin depends on the time of holding and it is based on the investors thoughts that how long he keeps his bitcoin.

Some people are also involved in trading with altcoins but they face troubles when the price suddenly goes down and altcoins also possess risk. Now a days one can easily buy and sell altcoins as price is regularly fluctuating and at the same time one can hold bitcoin so he can get profit from both trading and investment in current Bull season.

If they don't want to make their life hard they must eliminate the thoughts of trading altcoins since it will just give them a stress especially these tokens is usually so unpredictable and might they lose their money if they pick the wrong positions or just got FOMO on the tokens they bought.

But if they want to stay intact and get less stress then I guess going to invest on bitcoin for long term maybe best solution for them they just need to look up the price history of bitcoin and for sure they can able to know how big the potential of bitcoin to hold for much longer years. Data's about it is available online so if they could just read a lot of information about it then for sure that they can learn a lot from it and can able to do good decisions upon what's good investment for theirselves.

Truth i agree. Another fact is that not many persons are holding bitcoin for the long run, through highs and lows, good times and bad times even when people start panicking or start. selling because not everyone will actually believe in the currency as a viable technology. In my opinion every investor should be holding at least 0.1% of btc which is 10% of btc and enjoy the sweet ride in the bull run.

Before the bull run ends 1 btc might be equivalent to 4 btc previous in the previous years. Bitcoin has already than better than silver in the last decade and it will do more than Gold if gold doesn't take its place now. I believe it will hold its value more than fiat currency including the mighty dollar.

You have a point there. Bitcoin is clearly an investment that can deliver returns faster than most other assets and investments and that is why we choose it. But many people always deny that they choose bitcoin to invest not because they want to get rich quickly. As you pointed out: there is no asset that can grow 10%, even 30%, 50% in a few months like bitcoin, so people who say they invest in bitcoin are not for the idea of getting rich quickly is a lie. But that doesn't mean bitcoin is a gamble that can make us rich overnight or in a few weeks. Bitcoin's fast speed means that it has a faster rate of return than other assets.

Today the HODLING thing is under testing once again as the price of bitcoin is showing a big dump in price , dropping from ATH 73$k now at 67$k , that is 6k drop in 24 hours , does this mean there is a panicking happening ?
those who pretend to be Holder but when there is a red blood market is starting to sell out?  ;D

I personally like the idea of continuing to buy that would supplement HODLing rather than mere HODLing...

But, yeah each time you buy more BTC, you add a new date to the HODL of those particular coins.

So you end up with a bunch of coins with differing purchase dates and so then differing levels of profitability, and of course, depending on your accounting, you can treat them separately, you can average them out or you can account for them in both ways to figure out your options regarding the coins... and surely feeling better to be profitable rather than now being profitable, yet from my point of view there can be a lot more value in terms of having the value compound upon itself over a longer period or maybe through a quick price run up, so there could be temptations based on volatility to try to take advantage of some of the price run ups - including that guys need to be careful not to sell too many of their coins too soon based on their perception of short term profits that might not be as great as longer term profits that let the coins ride for longer periods and to experience more and more compounding of value effects... which leads into the power of exponentials that sometimes can be difficult to appreciate.

If you look at BTC prices since 2015, you can see that currently, we have had right around 8 doublings in BTC prices, yet that also show 256x increase in the actual BTC price.. so the doublings have compounding effects on the value of our BTC holdings that are quite powerful, even though exponential growth is not so apparent through our tendencies to think about value growth in more linear ways and so we frequently will fail to appreciate the exponential way of considering the matter.



That is part of the problem of daily spending and not holding a decent portion of your BTC aside.. you might get a bunch of short term profits, but you may well lose out on the longer term value compounding because you are in and out and spending it on a regular basis.  Of course, we do want there to be some spending of bitcoin in order to have various ways to have ways to liquidate BTC, even that if people want bitcoin, the some of us still want to have avenues to spend our bitcoin, even if we might be spending only small portions at any given time, and surely some guys will be doing spend and replace.


Fuck shitcoins and trading.. that is a distraction.. .to the extent that shitcoins are even on topic in this thread... and maybe trading might be more potentially topical because it is a contrast to hodl, so sure some guys here might consider that they might be able to play BTC's price waves, yet at the same time the HODL camp map shows that BTC prices tend to become profitable with time, so why risk trading if you are already good chances of being profitable with the mere passage of time?


You seem to not know what is a dump.

In the last day or two we have had right around a 11.111111% correction if we count from the local top of $73,794 and the current local bottom of $65,569, and right now as I type this post we are bouncing around $68,400-ish.

There is nothing unusual about any of that, and anyone who is investing into bitcoin whether newbie or longer term bitcoiner, should already realize that the BTC price does not go straight up, even though sometimes there might be long periods in which it goes up a lot, but there could also be long periods in which it goes down a lot, and so each of us should have systems in place (in which we continue to mostly hold our bitcoin) in order to deal with periods of UP and DOWN that cannot always be known.. especially in the short term... even though we likely can anticipate long term trends to continue to be up.. . which is part of the rationale to continue to hold BTC and to accumulate it no matter the BTC price direction, especially if you are a no coiner, a low coiner, or you perceive yourself to not have enough BTC.

We have surely been in an up cycle since our bottom of $15,479 in November 2022, yet we might not have had realized that we are in an uptrend until much later (maybe not even being sure until sometime after October 2023).. and so if the trend is going to change at some point in time from UP to down, we might not realize when the trend is going to change, so part of the question can be attempting to figure out how to treat your BTC holdings during so much volatility that is almost inevitable in bitcoinlandia, and if you don't have enough BTC what you should do about buying BTC, which likely if you don't have any BTC, then the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy some.  

If you don't have any BTC and you think that your best strategy is to wait for further down in order to buy some, then you are not prepared for up, and you are ONLY preparing for down, which might not end up happening, then what are you going to do?  Buy higher?  Over the years, we have seen a lot of folks who think that they are preparing to get into bitcoin by waiting for prices to go down, and a lot of those people keep waiting, fail to act, so they end up not being prepared for the up that ended up happening.

If you have some BTC, but you feel that you don't have enough, you are not in as bad of a position as the no coiner because you have some preparation for UP, but if you believe that you don't have enough BTC, then you likely need to buy rather than wait.. and sure, you do not have to buy with whatever cash reserves that you have.  Managing your cash reserves and the various methods of buying BTC is another story, in which DCA, lump sum and buying on dips are the three accumulation strategies that can be exercised separately or in combination.

Which way you believe the BTC price might be going is ONLY one of the factors to consider when figuring out your own situation, and so of course, figuring out your own financial and psychological situation in regards to bitcoin is also important if you want to have bitcoin to play potentially significant role in your life - especially since we seem to still be in the relatively early stages of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind  from no coiners and low coiners to coiners, so each of us should prefer to be on the receiving end if possible, and surely some people in the world have more disposable/discretionary income than others in order to buy some bitcoin, and bitcoin still provides benefits to the no coiners and low coiners by providing a more fair system, yet I am sure anyone appreciates if he is able to experience some direct benefits from bitcoin too.. which comes from attempting to own as much as you can without over doing it.. no one should want to end up having no coins or low coins because they over did it and they screwed up their investment into something that is nearly guaranteed (of course there are no guarantees) to return profits with the passage of time and the prudent, persistent, consistent and perhaps aggressive accumulation of coins.

exactly, And this where reserve funds comes in , if you are the type that is always waiting for the dip before thinking of accumulating bitcoin. Such individual may endup not accumulating any at all, because the dip you're hoping for may not happen. So in order to avoid such you must set aside a reserve funds in case if any may occur (dip) , while you keep accumulating Bitcoin with DCAing strategy. Because in investing one need to be flexible and always prepared.

the only people that would be in panicky now are those who trade with their bitcoin inorder to gain short-term profits. While those who are holding are not bothered with such drop in price, but how they can go around stashing more bitcoin, yeah lately bitcoin has being being trying to beat  $73k , so if check market chart you would see that bitcoin as made some attempt in beating that price range of $73k so this drop in price is just another correction for Bitcoin to gather some strength to beat the recent ATH which is Around $73k so I don't see any reason to panic, and also my mind as already set for long-term investment so I don't take this as anything worth panicky.

I also do admire those people that have been completely reliant to Bitcoin in all means of their survival. Like how? through trading or any other tasks that they're paid to do so. But if it's with trading, I'd say that it's kind of hard to survive with it and be wholly reliant on it having no other source of living. But I know the fact that there are traders, full time, that can make as much as they can but with the perspective of not a trader or just do it casually, it's truly hard.

Yes, there is atom of truth in the claim that being a trader is the way to riches because trading will enable one to have a better understanding of the system which is the major factor that will enhance the riches. In otherwise, trading can also have some disadvantage when the prerequisite skill is not well conceive and develop, for one to be a good trader and make riches out of it there must be unprecedented determination and consistency as well as endurance and dedication.

Living off of your trades is one thing, yet one of the important things about bitcoin is that it is a great investment vehicle.

So if a guy is able to live off of trading and live a regular life, while at the same time having enough left over that he is able to save between 5% and 25% of his income into bitcoin, then he is doing even better because he is saving for a future - otherwise, he is going to be working his whole life and never getting anywhere.. so I am not sure if that would be a very good way to live... and so yeah, sure how are you going to measure the matter in terms of comparing to other kinds of work that he might be able to do.

Let's say that he generally could get work for $4k per month, and so his expenses might be $3k, so then he ends up investing $1k per month and/or $250 per week into bitcoin.  Historically we could look this up to see how many bitcoin he would have had after 5 years or 10 years of investing in that kind of a way.  A guy who trades might be skimming off value to live, but then he also might be building his investment capital so that he is able to work with more and more capital the longer that he is trading, the more investment capital he is able to build up... But then is he putting that capital at risk?  probably.  The trader has a mentality to always be putting his capital to work, and so maybe a question of success would be how much is his investment capital growing, and is it growing at a similar rate as someone who had been able to have a regular job and to put aside $250 per week for the past 10 years.

My Hypothetical 2 guy has right around 115 BTC after 10 years of investing $250 per week into BTC (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590), which surely is not a bad place to be.  Is the trader going to beat hypothetical 2 guy?  and hypothetical 5 guy shows that $250 per week would have resulted in around 5 bitcoin up until now if his investment timeline had been for 5 years.


An overwhelming majority of regular people are going to be way better off by just investing into bitcoin regularly rather than trying to trade it.

That is half a million to this date? started at 250$  in 9 years , that is how I regret my past selling specially when I got bad in gambling and when I starter to wake up from my mistakes here is the pandemic that I need to take all my funds out.
but yeah since 2022 I started to recover again and now those mistakes will never happen again.
thank you for reminding us how grateful we are being in Bitcoin investing.

I don't know because if we go by today's spot price, as I type this post (around $69k), then any of us would have had to have bought right around 7.25 BTC  in 2015 for $250 each, which would have been around $1,812, and then we would have had to hold onto those BTC through all the ups and downs between 2015 and now.

Another possibility would have had been to buy 2x, 3x or 4x that amount, and then we would have had more liberty to sell some of them along the way, yet still have at least 7.25 BTC remaining in our holdings today.

I was largely attempting to show the power of exponential growth rather than picking any specific quantity of BTC that should have had been accumulated, and so part of the power of exponential growth and compounding of value is that it folds upon itself to have way higher magnitude, so right now we are in the supra 256x phase with 8 doublings, and if we get over $128k,, then we will be into the 9th doubling of that same initial amount... so a lot of power comes from just holding and allowing for the doublings to take place.

Of course, guys who started later, would have fewer doublings, and maybe even guys who screw up their average cost per BTC would have fewer doublings as well.

I personally like to proclaim that my own costs per BTC are right around $1k, so I have already lost a couple of the earlier doublings, due to some of my own mistakes along the way.. so therefore in my own situation, I am more likely ONLY feeling the compounding of right around 6 doublings, which would be closer to around 64x rather than 256x... but that's o.k... each of us do our best, and sometimes, it may well be better to have more BTC and have higher costs per BTC rather than having a lower amount of BTC at cheaper costs per BTC... so the guy who spent $100k and got 100 BTC ($1k per BTC) is going to be better of than the guy who spent $10k and got 25 BTC ($400 per BTC).


March 2020 would have surely been a bad time to sell your BTC, unless you figured out your mistake and bought back soon thereafter, even if you figure out that you had made a mistake.

Part of the problem of selling too many BTC too soon is that it causes psychological problems involved in buying back in, so instead of having regrets, any of us should be making sure that we have enough BTC. and so right now, if you conclude that you don't have enough BTC, then the main solution to that is buying.. and yeah of course, you can have some plans in case the BTC price dips, but the main thing is to buy more BTC if your conclusion is that you do not have enough BTC... It can take a long time to build up any savings including a BTC portfolio, yet one of the advantages of BTC is that once you get to a point in which you have enough, then you can likely start to draw from them and have a reliable income, yet in the meantime, you have to get to that point of having enough prior to being able to start drawing from them.


It is good that if you started back up in 2022.. so yeah, keep going and keep building your BTC stash, even if it is just a modest amount of $100 per week or whatever you can do.. and at some point you may well end up concluding that you have enough BTC to start to feel comfortable starting to draw from it... .. so if your goal might be to get to $500k, then even in 10 years (the middle of 2034), 1.5 BTC may well be enough to have half a million of solid value, and you could probably start to draw upon it once you get to your target... I personally measure in regards to the bottom which I still consider to be the 200-WMA, but if you are continuing to build and you get more than 1.5 BTC in 10 years, then you might be able to start drawing from your BTC sooner than 10 years.  For example in the middle of 2029, then you would only need right around 3.35 BTC in order to have $500k as your bottom.. in which you could start to draw upon it (if a $500k bottom value were to be your goal).

as also trading is just a way for those that are wealthy to make more money , don't be decieved that starting up with small capitals in trading you would be able to secure a good wealth ( though it may have worked for some individuals) but how certain is going to work for you also. The reason I don't advice anyone to go into trading expecially those are that are not financially stable, is because one may have a monthly pay job , with the interest of wanting to trade and invest at same time with his earnings. Inorder for such person to keep he would have to share his earning in different varieties, like some percentage for emergency funds ( for covering of expenses) , trading capital and some for investing. And as a low earner doing so would reduce your accumulation of bitcoin. And don't forget that in trading losses are inegligible (so sometime he may lose his capital in trading causing some set back) . That one need to prioritize in holding instead and forget about trading , when doing so he only have to keep some percentage for emergency funds and some for accumulating more bitcoin. In doing so he would be able to balance the system, making his accumulation more efficient and saving a better future for himself.
you are right, that why I won't encourage low coiners like myself to think of selling from their investment with the mindset of replacing it back, because one doing so how certain, would you buy back in a lower price. Because buying when the price low , is an advantage to have more quantities in your portfolio than buying when the price is high,  just  as you said one should focus on Accumulating so that as time goes he may get to point of having enough, and earn his self a reliable income.

You are new to the forum, I don't know if you are also new to Bitcoin. Most of us starting from trading and got excited at the early stages especially during bull market when every buys almost instantly yield profits, we were so hyped with the euphoria of easy money. It was with time we realised that trading isn't an easy way of making money. I personally paid the price and wished I never followed that route. Today when I look at the volume of Bitcoin I had traded without holding any of them, I feel depressed and wished I could turn back the hands of time.  My only consolation is the fact that I I joined this forum, learnt about a method of investing in Bitcoin called DCA and started building my portfolio afresh. So I call my ordeal the price of learning.

If you are so engrossed in trading and you are really making good profit from it, I will encourage you to immediately set aside those profits in a separate wallet an hold them with long term in view. But if you know that trading is making you turn round the same cycle of profit/loss without any progress, then there is need to change your plans into holding Bitcoin instead of trading.

The first thing I want you to understand is that trading is not for everyone, secondly, trading is not as easy as most influencer makes it looks like, and if am not mistaken, it's only like 2% of traders that are making money from it out of 100% , so the earlier you realize it the better.

But when it comes to investing in Bitcoin through the DCA method, you don't need any skill before you invest, all you need is basic knowledge on how to be buying weekly or monthly, and a deeper knowledge on what it entails on how to hold effectively, by having a source of income and an emergency fund, and I can certain that, that is the perfect recipe for wealth building as long as you are a long term holder.

They are just fooling theirselves to get good gains by trading their bitcoins on daily basis since they cannot actually get passive results for it and might there's just huge chance for them to lost all bitcoins they have if sudden shift of momentum came like a unexpected correction will happen and they are not been prepared for it to happen.

That's why its better if they just use their money for accumulating since nothing more best decision to do that especially if they don't have enough knowledge on trading since for sure they can get more better profit results for hodl than trading. I know we can read a lot of hype stories about their trading gains but people need to understand that this is not consistent result also there's big chance to lose if they are not careful and became so greedy on taking some risky decisions on what they are trying to trade.

I am not good in math with that 10 year frame but sure it is going to be worth it with that journey if someone is able to invest $250/week or $1k/monthly. That's how it goes but I am also as well thinking about the itching side of the probable selling during that period and it might not reach that amount after 10 years. But the good thing with this is that guy that does accumulation weekly or monthly is still on the right path whether he's going to have some tough decision that he has decided to sell some. And as for that 5 year hypo guy, that's more likely what it is going to be with most people today but the consistency is one thing that's hard to maintain.

Well, that's the only thing that you can do about this kind of thing, it's not your money and they can survive. Seeing people reliant on trading for their daily expenses is like watching a those stunt drivers in circuses do deadly tricks and showmanship, they don't have to do it as there are other ways to do it but they do it anyway and you're in awe that they're risking their lives just to live another day of not starving. It's really difficult to make money with trading especially with a lot of retail investors and small traders losing a lot of money because they don't know how to do it and they're lacking in information to do informed decisions so that's double the admiration if you think about it, watching that computer all day without rest and having to rely on meager profit through scalping, you can only watch or listen in awe when you see this and when these traders tell you this kind of things that they're doing.

It took me till 2022 before starting again because it is late 2021 that i got back my Job from pandemic so need to prioritize everything to stash my folio once again and gladly I am now.

actually that's what I am doing now , 100$ a week or sometimes even a little higher when there are extra work for a week, not minding how much the price is because Like you i believe that bitcoin will be here and growing in the coming years and not just now and tomorrow.

You are truly aspiring us small investors to keep trusting this great currency..Thank you.

Well, those that can really do it have their own space and they know what they're up to. Salute to them as that's one hard source of income but I just see that there are the ones that do make trading as their way of living. So, those that don't have hope in doing these trading for a living, it's just best to choose what's going to work for you and if that means investing or holding then choose that method if that's going to work out for you as it worked for most of us.

I consider that there could be something like 3 categories of low coiners behaviors.. .

1) whimpy low coiner - they are seemingly purposefully causing themselves to be a low coiner by their chosen level of whimpiness in their thinking about bitcoin and maybe their failure to set any kind of specific plan and to act

2) sufficiently aggressive low coiner - who is trying to be as aggressive as he can in accumulating BTC while managing his financial situation to have an emergency and reserve funds in order that he can attempt to maximize his aggressiveness without over doing it.. so maybe this person is continuously making progress in building his BTC stash, but sometimes is feeling like he is not making progress when the BTC prices are down.

3) an overly aggressive low coiner - who trades, gambles and involves himself with shitcions, and maybe has similar goals as 2), but does not have as much discipline so bets big, is anxious to get rich quick so takes unnecessary risks, does not maintain adequate reserves/emergency funds and considers that everything will just work itself out (including good luck) and maybe even contributes to his own losses and/or failure to make progress in building his BTC portfolio

As you seem to recognize, I think that we should be aspiring to be like number 2 to the best of our own abilities and within the confines of our own circumstances.. with some level of aggressiveness in organizing our budget, psychology and our regular BTC buying practices, and to have patience in terms of continuing to realize that it takes time to build our BTC stash that may or may not be comparable to the size of some people who have other circumstances.. so we may well not even consider ourself a low coiner if we are accumulating coin to the best of our ability, then as compared to other versions of ourself, we may well not be a low coiner, and with the passage of years of accumulating, it is likely that our prior self is not even going to be able to keep up with us.. which is similar that it is likely that our peers are also not going to be able to catch with us, especially if we can make it through a whole cycle of ongoing, persistent and consistent BTC accumulation... and to survive by not recking ourselves along the way.


Well it is a matter of time, whether a guy is a 5 year guy, a 10 year guy or somewhere further down the road.  We cannot really know how our investment will perform, but we can attempt to gauge how much we are putting in.  So if $250 per week is about $13k per year (that is 52 weeks in a year), then after 10 years, the guy would have had invested $130k. and so after 5 years he would have had invested $65k.  So part of the results is how much a guy puts in, and then how well the investment ends up performing.

In traditional investing, there are many folks who invest 30-40 years, and they never make fuck you status... and yeah maybe they are not consistent and maybe they do not even invest 10% of their salary, since we know that if you are investing 10% of your salary, it is still going to take 10 years for your investment to add up to 1 year of your salary, so some folks might figure out that there are ways to be more aggressive with their investment in order to shorten the timeline that it is going to take to build up several years of their salary (or their living expenses) because if they can learn how to live fairly frugally, then they realize that they don't need to spend as much or to have as much saved up in order to be able to support themselves, once they decide to stop working (or to stop earning income through work).. so at some point they will be able to start to draw on their investment to either completely support themselves or to supplement their living situation. 

With something like bitcoin, no one can tell you how long that you have to wait before starting to draw upon it as income and/or to supplement your living, but we likely hear about way too many guys who start to shave off their profits way too early, so they never end up getting to the point in which their BTC would be able to completely support all of their living expenses for the rest of their lives, which would also be considered a passive income - if the only thing that you have to do to receive it is to account for it.

Even though I am already coming to conclude that it is likely in bitcoin that we are not going to need as much of a nest egg as we need in traditional finances in order to support ourselves from our BTC stash, since in traditional investment we need right around 25x our income in order to be able to live off of our income (which is assuming a 4% withdrawal rate), and I am starting to consider that with bitcoin 10-16.7 years of income may well be enough (which is assuming a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate).. but it is still risky to overly rely on the newer models and those kinds of potential more aggressive withdrawal rates that bitcoin might be able to provide since it is more of an untested system and fairly new, so it may well be much better to rely on more conservative models and to have some cushion in the size of he BTC stash before pulling any fuck you lever that would then put you in a position where you are having to live off of your BTC stash.


When it comes to trading, I am not opposed to the idea of using it as a way to learn more about markets, but not as a way to earn money or to substitute salary from regular work.  With trading, I also agree with the idea of using real money rather than fake (training) websites that do not use real value, but the fact that you are using real money does not mean that you have to bet big, and maybe you could have $100 as your total trading budget.... and so you could set up 20 trades that are $5 each.. . and of course, if you have an investment portfolio that is $100k, then you could practice with $1k of that (which is only 1% of the size of your investment stash.. just for the purposes of learning.. if that might be what you want to do)...


It can be tough losing a source of income, and then maybe trying to figure out what to do in terms of other possible income and/or even self-training to be able to potentially do other kinds of work.


So yeah you surely can be flexible with the amount that you put into bitcoin based on your cashflow and expenses, and surely you have to be careful to make sure that you are not overdoing it. and you have some other funds in case you have some kind of an emergency that might relate to your income or your expenses, and looking at the bright side, there should be some hope with people to have such a thing as bitcoin as a possible investment, even though there are a lot of other things screwed up in macro systems, yet bitcoin does seem to offer some really good possibilities for continued great payout down the line, as long as you don't screw it up by cashing out too early.. and just continuing to build it to get your stack size to a point in which it largely might start to be able to sustain itself, once you decide it is time to start to draw upon it.

Regarding your ideas about trusting bitcoin, you still have to keep in mind your own position size because there are not any guarantees in bitcoin, even though it is currently seeming to be the best of investments currently available.. so in that regard, you have to consider position size in terms of both that you could lose up to 100% of everything that you put in, and yet at the same time there are upside calculations of various returns that you may well be able to get based on still quite low levels of adoption, so there remains so much more potential for growth in terms of bitcoins addressable market that is likely in the territory of 1,000x the value of gold, even though we are currently around 1/10th the price of gold (in terms of market cap), so surely it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin to reach fair market value relative to gold, and at the same time, our investment timeline is way shorter than even 50 years, and many of us are likely investing for periods of 4-10 years or longer and surely there is variance in terms of when we are going to start to expect to want t begin to draw upon our bitcoin investment... where we might convert from a net BTC accumulator and into a net BTC liquidator..

A lot of investors today who are number 2 started off overly aggressive and bought into the different altcoins that promised to be the next Bitcoin. Likely, they entered the market during a bull run when crypto was at the top of everyone's lips like in late 2017 and dives right into the ICO bubble which was growing larger everyday.
After getting burnt a couple of times and losing some money, maybe gaining some more, but over the next couple of months they moved towards more stable coins like Bitcoin and aggressively went into it, moving most bb their profits from other investments into it.

The first guy usually stays the same.

Only those that understand the benefits of buying bitcoin and hodling Bitcoin will try their best to always continue in this even if it will cause them pain in hodling Bitcoin. It is a wrong decision for one to sell out when suppose to keep hodling Bitcoin,  that is why when whenever some people make mostake in selling their bitcoin, they regret it after realising the mistake of selling.  It is not easy buying bitcoin to hodl from time to time, but I think one is doing the right thing buying bitcoin and hodling .

"The first guy usually stays the same."

Interesting point.  I consider the whimpy low coiner to have potential, since he has already acted.

We have such a common problem with the no coiner who fails to act, and so maybe there are different kinds of no coiners too.. but a low coiner has gotten further than any no coiner who has failed to act.   We know that another term for no coiner is pre coiner, yet there are still some who might be teetering upon having interest in bitcoin and others who don't really invest into anything until everyone they know and their dog is doing it, and then they join.. yes those ones are maybe the laggards.

yeah you are right and thanks for the clarity of different low coiners, but recently I think I'm among the category of the second one, but at first I was among the category of the third one , overly aggressive low coiner , because at that time I involved my self in a of scheme, like trading and involving myself with alot of shitcoins thinking they would make me rich quick and earn me some goot profit, but at the end they did the opposite, got me reckt and I got to learn the hard way. But ever since have been gaining more knowledge about how Bitcoin investment or holdings works . I now find myself being among the sufficiently aggressive with the help of sir @JJG and some other users in this forum I'm now able to Accumulate bitcoin and same time manage my financial situation.

I think this post now add clarity to how I felt mid last year. I was indeed number 2 and I'm glad I was as it made me cover up some gaps by combining both the DCA method and buying the dips. As someone who did not start building my bitcoin asset early, it was not a good feeling realizing that we were a year to bitcoin halving, and ETF approval where it was expected that Bitcoin will make a new all time high yet I did not have a good bitcoin portfolio. This was what motivated me to suspending a lot of activities costing me money and channeling those funds to Bitcoin. I achieved my target anyways but not as much as I would have achieved if I started investing way back in the bear season.

Better late than never, and you are likely still going to feel early, but it might take a cycle or more before you start to feel that way... that is as long as you can keep up your investing in bitcoin, and yeah whether you are going to be ready to transfer out of accumulation after a whole cycle is something that I would not really know. ..and maybe you don't really know yet either, because you might have some further targets with the passage of time. I believe that we already discussed that sometimes there can be some early initial goals that are set and then when they are achieved, then they spark the setting of newer goals that might be related but they are slightly different based on our new circumstances, including our assessment of BTC's price performance during that time, too.

Wow 100$ a week in your DCA? That's pretty cool. Like i always tell people that a good hodler doesn't check at the price of Bitcoin before buying as every damn price is a buying time inasmuch as you are a long term Bitcoin investor you actually gonna make a whole lot of profit because it is believed that in every new ATH the price of Bitcoin must absolutely surpass the previous ATH, so let's make and assumption that if the ATH after the halving makes it up to $100k then the next halving ATH gets to $200k then the next becomes $300k, an investor that DCA $100 every week when the price was $100k and continues till like 8 years (2 halving) would have made some good profit within that time frame, so there is no losing time as a bitcoin investor so far you can patiently wait for your investment to ripe within the long run.

Sure jayjuangee have been a great hodler and motivator in hodling Bitcoin for quite some time in this forum, he has emphasize so much on the strategies and ethics with which one can become a successful Bitcoin investor, he's a great forum mentor.

There are many distinct types of people who use Bitcoin. The "no coiners" you refer to may just be uninterested in investing in anything, or they may be suspicious of Bitcoin in particular. "Pre-coiners," as you describe them, may be interested in Bitcoin but not yet ready to purchase any. And "laggards," as you call it, may need to witness widespread use of Bitcoin before investing in it.
I think the cause for these various emotions from people towards Bitcoin is fear of the unknown and a lack of trust and confidence in Bitcoin, and these people truly need help, education is crucial when it comes to helping people feel more comfortable with Bitcoin.

 Many people could have misconceptions about Bitcoin or just do not comprehend how it works. People may be more willing to invest if they are given clear and factual information about Bitcoin, its history, and its potential. Furthermore, I believe it is essential to highlight Bitcoin's numerous applications outside investment. For example, Bitcoin can be used for remittances, cross-border payments, and even as an inflation hedge. Focusing on these practical applications may help people see Bitcoin in a different way.

Our goals and motivations have the potential to change and evolve over time, especially with something as dynamic as Bitcoin. True, as time passes, we may realize that our initial goals have been reached and that we now have other, related ambitions to pursue.
There are various ways in which a person's motivation for investing in Bitcoin can shift. For example, perhaps when they initially began investing, they were primarily concerned with the potential for profit. Over time, users may discover that they are more interested in the technology and community surrounding Bitcoin, rather than the prospect for financial gain.
Alternatively, they may find that their initial goal of accumulating Bitcoin has shifted to a goal of using Bitcoin to make purchases as well as other purpose.

Another fascinating way for someone's Bitcoin investment intentions to change is if they grow more interested in using Bitcoin to support causes that are important to them. For example, many charities and non-profit organizations accept Bitcoin donations. So, a person who started investing in Bitcoin just for profit may discover that they wish to utilize their Bitcoin to support a cause that is important to them. Alternatively, users might use their Bitcoin to invest in initiatives that are built on the Bitcoin blockchain, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) or non-fungible tokens (NFTs), so many others.

I'll keep that in mind mate and yeah , Like what I said I maintain that 100$ weekly not unless there are something comes out of extra that I am adding to that amount because 100 usd is the only funds I can afford to keep in Wallet.
but aside from that all of my job pay gets directly to my wife as we agreed to that in which she will allow me investing but the family money will be for her to budget.

this is what I realized over the years ,and i pandemic did not arrive ? for sure I have a good chunks of bitcoin now and I did not lose my great job .

I will Sir, Surely i will always remember those advise from yours..Thank you!!

If you have a job besides earning bitcoins and if your job is enough to meet all your family needs then in my opinion you can keep all the bitcoins earned from bitcointalk. Or invest as much as you can by planning for a long period of time that you will actually hold for. Here is the weekly or monthly saving method which seems to me to be the best method.

What good thing about there if you have a full time job and yet you are earning some bitcoins on your side hustle just like what you earn on your sig campaign then you can potentially use that to increase the size of your investment. With this we can assure that we can make our plans into reality and no other issue that can stop us to hodl since we have multiple source of income that can make all things possible on our side. Now the other thing we can do is to look for other more ways to get other source of income so that we would have more money to use maybe to separate it on emergency funds so that we are also fine if we experience a down time on our job and we are still fine since we are fully prepared on this consequences.

That's the advantage of having multiple sources of income since you can separate things needed so you may have huge chances to succeed on your plans. Unlike if you only have rely on single income and you are afraid to explore since you don't want to get out on your comfort zone then everything will fail once your expectation on things or how market moves did not follow as what you expect and your main source of income collapsed. That's why its really good to think what's best and don't commit on single income generating since usually people like to quit their job and focus only on bitcoin which is bad choice for them especially if they are not consistently earning or they are just starting up.

In traditional finance, people are generally urged to save 5% to 25% of their income for retirement or other long-term objectives. You are correct in suggesting that someone who can do this with Bitcoin while simultaneously meeting their basic necessities is doing even better. This is because they are not just saving for the future, but also hoping to profit from Bitcoin's potential appreciation over time.
It's a truly unique and imaginative approach to think about Bitcoin savings. Treating Bitcoin like a typical savings vehicle allows users to benefit from both its short-term usage (e.g., as a payment mechanism) and its long-term potential (e.g., as an investment). It's not all about the profit though.People who use Bitcoin as a savings vehicle may also feel more in control of their finances and less reliant on traditional financial institutions.

It's quite sensible and logical. The strategy you describe is also referred to as DCA (dollar-cost averaging). It's a method in which you invest a certain amount of money on a regular basis, regardless of the investment's price. This helps to level out market fluctuations and reduces the danger of financial loss.
One of the primary advantages of DCA is that it removes emotion from the investment process. When the market is rising, it's easy to get caught up in the enthusiasm and invest all of your money. However, if the market falls, you risk losing a large sum of money.
 By investing a fixed amount of money every month or week, you take the emotion out of the equation and focus on the long-term goal of building wealth. It's like putting money in a piggy bank over time, every coin counts!

There is a lot of scientific research that supports the effectiveness of DCA. One study found that investors who utilized this method over a 10-year period outperformed those who tried to time the market. So, while it may be tempting to purchase low and sell high, data indicates that this is not necessarily the greatest strategy.
 Consistency has shown to be the secret to success.
 One thing to bear in mind about DCA: it is not a "get rich quick" scheme. It's a cautious and steady technique that will take time to produce results. But if you're patient and consistent, it can be quite beneficial. Another thing to keep in mind is that you should invest an amount that you can afford each month/week without putting yourself in a bad financial condition.


You are correct that having many streams of income can be an excellent strategy to achieve financial stability. It is usually a good idea to maintain an emergency fund to cover any unforeseen expenses. You're also correct that this strategy can help you hang onto your money even when the market is down. It's a technique to create a safety net for yourself so that you don't rely solely on one source of income.
Having numerous income streams can help you achieve not only your investment goals, but also your other financial goals and many other aspects of your life more quickly. For example, If you're aiming to save for a large purchase, having numerous sources of income can help you get there sooner. Again, having many sources of income can help you achieve financial independence more quickly. And Finally, having numerous income streams can help you strike a better work-life balance. You can decide to work less in one area and more in others that are essential to you, such as spending time with family or pursuing hobbies.


It's easy to grow overconfident or even lazy when you have a single source of income that's satisfying your demands. However, you're precisely correct that this can place you in a vulnerable situation if anything changes and that source of income goes. You've also made a really significant point about being comfortable with risk and seeking new chances.
it's possible to achieve a balance between being cautious and taking advantage of fresh opportunities. One technique that can be beneficial is to set aside a specified amount of money for Bitcoin, and to treat it as "play money." That way, you can be constant in your investing without jeopardizing your overall financial stability. It's easy to get stuck in a loop if you're not prepared to take risks and attempt new things.
It is important to approach risk in a balanced manner and avoid putting all of your eggs in one basket. It is also essential to have a backup plan in case things do not go as planned. It's easy to get caught up in the excitement of bitcoin and overlook the foundations of good financial planning.

having good sources can help one to secure a nice investment for himself, and would also help in hitting his accummulation goal sooner , with some lump-summing , buying the dip ( when it occurs) and frequent use of DCAing to accumulate more bitcoin . And also having some good sources would also help one in having some good amount of emergency funds inorder to coverup expected and unexpected expenses, without ever thinking of tampering with their investment, as their portfolio keep increasing with time. But still even those with no numerous sources can also secure a good investment for themselves, with proper planning concerning his financial situation and all that. And also with some good principles to handle their investment properly .
that one need to be creative, like someone with a single source that's able to satisfy his demand (a monthly earner)  ,  should establish a personal business  , where he can employ some workers with some nice skills. As another sources to earn extra funds from and also as a back up source if the recent source of income goes as you say. Such individual may decide to use some percentage from his personal business to accumulate some good bitcoin in their portfolio weekly or they may decide to make their DCAing monthly so that he can take some percentage from his business and monthly jobs . In order to buy some go quantity of bitcoin as a monthly DCAing. And still would be able to gather some good funds during the weeks for DCAing and also putting aside a nice amount of money for emergency funds.

It is always exciting and awe-inspiring to join conversations on this wonderful thread, and listening to or reading from what you've just mentioned above is one aspect that I would like to encourage many of us on this platform to pay attention to. There are a lot of things that we may wish to delve into, and sometimes it just occupies our minds. In anything we do in our lives, we are expected to always have humanity at heart, because at the end of the day, we all have roots and may experience different life circumstances.

Like they say in the popular saying, "what goes around, comes around," even though none of us is responsible for whatever predicament or issues any other person is facing, it is always good to help the needy through investing in charity donations for non-profit organizations that are helping the cause of humanity. I don't know if this aspect is mostly discussed here, but if it is done, I feel like it needs to be done even more.

That's why I appreciate my colleague here who is mentioning this particular aspect on this great thread that we are on. Since we're already talking about investment, how do we really invest in humanity? How do we invest in the lives of those who might want to be bitcoin users in the future but face constraints because of some natural disabilities or lack of access to basic amenities? So, it is good for us to champion causes like this.

Lastly, it won't also be a bad idea if, as we are channeling our investments to non-profit organizations for charity works, we can also at the same time suggest to those organizations the introduction of bitcoin to those people. We can get these people to learn how they can use bitcoin technology, and that will be another aspect that would be unpopular but will greatly assist in their financial lives. Many of them cannot access the banks, they also do not trust the banking system and are looking for alternatives. But since they don't have the necessary capabilities that we have, they have been faced with constraints.

So, coming up with initiatives like teaching the less privileged and people with disabilities bitcoin technologies and how they operate, and how they can maximize the opportunity in the bitcoin investments, risk management, and whatnot would go a long way, I believe.

From the instance you gave I think i agree with you.

I have been trading Bitcoin for years now and I must say I have not made my desired profit, seeing this your write up has made me think of how successful I would have been if I was only investing on Bitcoin than trading it.

Trading of Bitcoin is in two ways which are winning and losing, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

If I had invested on Bitcoin for this good number of years I have been trading it I would have had good percent of Bitcoin.

However I'm not saying those that trade Bitcoin are not making it big but investing on Bitcoin will help you have a future investment but trading it will not give you a future investment.

For sure, we cannot necessarily know in advance  in regard to which courses of action are going to pay off better, and surely over the years, bitcoin has been a kind of asset that has been valuable to accumulate, so those who have errored on the side of mostly accumulating bitcoin have done better than those who might have been focused on either accumulating dollars are maybe not very clear in regards to the value of accumulating and holding bitcoin, which likely is going to continue to be true... even though also we know that past performance does not guarantee future performance, even though bitcoins investment thesis seems to continue to get stronger.

Good suggestions you have made, arguably the decision to invest in decent bitcoin is going to be great especially for those who are interested. Bitcoin can be best for you in terms of investment if you follow some method which can be lump sum investment which is considered as your holding and long term you can consider DCA on weekly or monthly basis. Depositing with DCA is a great strategy given BTC that you can buy at the dips and even at the top-at the end you will see the average price. Following this method you can be aggressive until the BTC circle is filled and you can continue for the desired duration. You shouldn't be allowed to move fractions from the bitcoin stack and your best way is floating cash for emergency use.

Yeah, so is better to accumulate as many Bitcoin as one can than to trade it.
A lot of people are regretting but is never too late you can start accumulating it now little by little before you know it you have accumulated a future investment.
I know of a man who died but before his dead he gave his family his trust wallet phrase and when they checked they saw a good amount of Bitcoin and that changed the families life till date. so the best thing to do is accumulate Bitcoin is a big future investment.

It's very true what you've said about the unpredictability of investment outcomes, Bitcoin has proven to be quite a valuable asset worth holding on to and people should be fully aware of this fact.
It's also very true that past performances can never guarantee future outcomes, it's worth noting that Bitcoin's investment thesis has continued to strengthen overtime which makes Bitcoin a very viable option for investors to accumulate and HODL on to it.

Market dynamics are not static as they are ever changing and it's very important for investors to always be updated, informed and also adapt to whatever changes that comes along with the market. Those investors who have acknowledged the potential of bitcoin, seen the vision behind it and have taken advantage of the situation by taking a long-term approach with Bitcoin have often reaped and are still reaping the actual benefits of Bitcoin.

The fundamentals of Bitcoin investment is to first understand the value of Bitcoin and using the understanding gathered to make informed decisions concerning your investment.

HODLing has always been the best approach to me rather than trading, timing the market or any other approach when it comes to Bitcoin investment and it's also very important to always acknowledge that Bitcoin is to be considered at all time for its long-term potential.
Many investors who have HODLed Bitcoin for the long-term have enjoyed and are still enjoying the benefits of HODLing, and it's never too late to join the moving train.

The story of the man you just shared, who left his family the passphrase to his wallet which contained a significant amount of Bitcoin before his demise is an amazing example of one of the benefits attached to HODLing Bitcoin for the long-term.