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Author Topic: HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands  (Read 2953 times)
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February 10, 2024, 05:38:35 PM
 #61

Honestly, I don't think hodling is that important. I agree that it's a very simple and very profitable long-term strategy with Bitcoin. But people can treat Bitcoin as money, selling and buying all the time. It's also fine to treat it like savings, taking out a part when needed, not when a hodling period is over. And then there's indefinite hodling, normally explained by phrases like 'if you wait long enough, you won't have to sell your BTC'. But what does it mean? Using it directly and exchanging for goods? Taking loans based on wealth you have in BTC, like rich people in the US do with traditional assets? Never using your Bitcoin (then what's the point of having it)?
There are many questions that people need to find their individual answers to.

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February 10, 2024, 07:35:42 PM
 #62

You have provided concise explanations of the advantages and disadvantages of lump-sum investment vs DCA. While lump-sum investment can be dangerous in unfavorable market situations, it can also result in large profits in favorable circumstances. By spreading out your investments across time with DCA, you lower your chance of losing money in the event of a market collapse. However, if the market takes off, you might pass on the chance to make a significant profit

When determining which strategy is ideal for you, I believe it's critical to take your long-term objectives and risk tolerance into account. It's also important to remember that DCA may be more practical for people who lack a sizable sum of money to invest all at once.


The decision of how much and how often to invest is one of the most essential elements of DCA. As an illustration, you may choose to invest a certain sum of money each week, month, or quarter. Rather of investing your entire savings all at once, the goal is to spread it out over time. This strategy can result in lower total expenses and helps to moderate market volatility. Another tactic is to automate your DCA plan, which would cause frequent automated transfers of funds from your bank account to your investing account.

Risk can't be completely avoided but its impact can be minimised. I have see from previous price chart of Bitcoin that risk can be lessened if your investment is spanned over a larger duration. For short term DCA nor Lump Sum is recommended. 
Lump Sum is not a bad option. You just need to prepare yourself for this startegy and then invest when you think is best time to jump. DCA no doubt minimised the risk to greater level because you are continuously buying over a period of time and that gives you a good average price.

You can check my following post to see how much return DCA and Lump Sum give you:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479211.msg63392684#msg63392684

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February 10, 2024, 10:50:28 PM
Last edit: February 10, 2024, 11:12:06 PM by Gormicsta
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #63

You have provided concise explanations of the advantages and disadvantages of lump-sum investment vs DCA. While lump-sum investment can be dangerous in unfavorable market situations, it can also result in large profits in favorable circumstances. By spreading out your investments across time with DCA, you lower your chance of losing money in the event of a market collapse. However, if the market takes off, you might pass on the chance to make a significant profit

When determining which strategy is ideal for you, I believe it's critical to take your long-term objectives and risk tolerance into account. It's also important to remember that DCA may be more practical for people who lack a sizable sum of money to invest all at once.


The decision of how much and how often to invest is one of the most essential elements of DCA. As an illustration, you may choose to invest a certain sum of money each week, month, or quarter. Rather of investing your entire savings all at once, the goal is to spread it out over time. This strategy can result in lower total expenses and helps to moderate market volatility. Another tactic is to automate your DCA plan, which would cause frequent automated transfers of funds from your bank account to your investing account.

Risk can't be completely avoided but its impact can be minimised. I have see from previous price chart of Bitcoin that risk can be lessened if your investment is spanned over a larger duration. For short term DCA nor Lump Sum is recommended.  
Lump Sum is not a bad option. You just need to prepare yourself for this startegy and then invest when you think is best time to jump. DCA no doubt minimised the risk to greater level because you are continuously buying over a period of time and that gives you a good average price.

You can check my following post to see how much return DCA and Lump Sum give you:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479211.msg63392684#msg63392684

That's true. risk will always be present in investing, regardless of the technique you use. However, as you pointed out, there are ways to reduce that risk, including lump sum investment and DCA. It's important, in my opinion, to keep in mind that everyone has a different level of risk tolerance; some people may feel more at ease with certain levels of risk, while others may wish to lessen it.  

In any case, I think it's critical to take into account your personal risk profile. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to risk tolerance. Certain individuals are naturally more at ease with risk than others. It's also critical to consider your investment timeline. When investing for the long term, for instance, you could be more ready to take on more risk because you will have more time to make up for any short-term losses. However, you may want to prioritize risk minimization and exercise extra caution if you're investing for a short period of time.

Honestly, I don't think hodling is that important. I agree that it's a very simple and very profitable long-term strategy with Bitcoin. But people can treat Bitcoin as money, selling and buying all the time. It's also fine to treat it like savings, taking out a part when needed, not when a hodling period is over. And then there's indefinite hodling, normally explained by phrases like 'if you wait long enough, you won't have to sell your BTC'. But what does it mean? Using it directly and exchanging for goods? Taking loans based on wealth you have in BTC, like rich people in the US do with traditional assets? Never using your Bitcoin (then what's the point of having it)?
There are many questions that people need to find their individual answers to.

Nicely said, but you can agree with me that different people have different perspective and viewpoint about Bitcoin investment. There are people who are looking for ways to invest for their future and Bitcoin happens to be one of the most profitable and safest investment that can is believe to have the ability to last almost a lifetime.
Before Bitcoin was even considered an option, people held gold as future investment for years without intentions of touching or selling a portion of it to fund their needs.

The fact you are Hodling Bitcoin doesn't mean you can't have other investments that you can run to whenever you need money. But nothing is more reassuring than having a pile of Bitcoin just lying in your wallet for years and you just live your normal while you just watch your money grow as the years go by. I'll have to disagree with you that Hodling isn't that important, because it's very much important, because I see it as the only way one can almost avoid risk of loosing money when it comes to Bitcoin investment. People who have Hodled Bitcoin for the past 10 years I believe can confirm this, because there's no way they could've made any losses, except maybe their wallets were compromised or something, but if it's loosing funds to the market, I doubt it's possible. I stand to be corrected.
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February 11, 2024, 03:18:05 AM
 #64

Honestly, I don't think hodling is that important. I agree that it's a very simple and very profitable long-term strategy with Bitcoin. But people can treat Bitcoin as money, selling and buying all the time. It's also fine to treat it like savings, taking out a part when needed, not when a hodling period is over. And then there's indefinite hodling, normally explained by phrases like 'if you wait long enough, you won't have to sell your BTC'. But what does it mean? Using it directly and exchanging for goods? Taking loans based on wealth you have in BTC, like rich people in the US do with traditional assets? Never using your Bitcoin (then what's the point of having it)?
There are many questions that people need to find their individual answers to.

You sound like one of those BIG blocker hold overs from 2017.

[edited out]
Risk can't be completely avoided but its impact can be minimised mitigated. I have see from previous price chart of Bitcoin that risk can be lessened if your investment is spanned over a larger duration. For short term DCA nor Lump Sum is recommended.

FTFY

There are mostly three BTC accumulation strategies, and for many folks they should not be all or nothing, especially if you are attempting to either mitigate volatility risk and/or to attempt to tailor your BTC accumulation to your own situation.

That is DCA, lump sum and buying on dips.  Of course there is HODL, also even though it does not really help to accumulate but it might remind a person not to panic in terms of selling at the wrong times, especially if in a situation of running out of money while the BTC price keeps dipping.

Lump Sum is not a bad option. You just need to prepare yourself for this startegy and then invest when you think is best time to jump. DCA no doubt minimised the risk to greater level because you are continuously buying over a period of time and that gives you a good average price.

You can check my following post to see how much return DCA and Lump Sum give would have had given you:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479211.msg63392684#msg63392684

FTFY... As a reminder the comparison in your linked post is referring to past performance not future performance.

[edited out]
That's true. risk will always be present in investing, regardless of the technique you use. However, as you pointed out, there are ways to reduce that risk, including lump sum investment and DCA. It's important, in my opinion, to keep in mind that everyone has a different level of risk tolerance; some people may feel more at ease with certain levels of risk, while others may wish to lessen it.  

In any case, I think it's critical to take into account your personal risk profile. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to risk tolerance. Certain individuals are naturally more at ease with risk than others. It's also critical to consider your investment timeline. When investing for the long term, for instance, you could be more ready to take on more risk because you will have more time to make up for any short-term losses. However, you may want to prioritize risk minimization and exercise extra caution if you're investing for a short period of time.

Long time has greater potential to give compounding and exponential value growth benefits.... not guaranteed but surely within a reasonable realm of considerations... especially with something like bitcoin...

See my recent post in which I attempt to point out bitcoin's historical compounding.

[edited out]
People who have Hodled Bitcoin for the past 10 years I believe can confirm this, because there's no way they could've made any losses, except maybe their wallets were compromised or something, but if it's loosing funds to the market, I doubt it's possible. I stand to be corrected.

There are always ways to lose money and past performance is not a guarantee to future results, even though you are talking about anyone who mostly held their coins more than 5 years is in profits, and these days anyone who DCA's for any period of time (more than a month or two) would be in profits so long as they were consistently buying simiilar quantities of BTC at regular intervals over the whole period of time.. such as weekly.

Of course people are not necessarily consistent, so if some folks might have front loaded their investment at various times in 2021 when the BTC price is higher than now, then it would not be clear how much they would have had to continue to invest in DCA and perhaps other tactics in order to be profitable at today's BTC prices.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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February 11, 2024, 09:48:20 AM
 #65

FTFY

There are mostly three BTC accumulation strategies, and for many folks they should not be all or nothing, especially if you are attempting to either mitigate volatility risk and/or to attempt to tailor your BTC accumulation to your own situation.

That is DCA, lump sum and buying on dips.  Of course there is HODL, also even though it does not really help to accumulate but it might remind a person not to panic in terms of selling at the wrong times, especially if in a situation of running out of money while the BTC price keeps dipping.

If you are accumulating bticoins then you need to bear all sort of price variations. You may face situations where bitcoin price may go down from your buying price and you start hearing traditional sounds like "Bitcoin is going down and will never recover". That's the test one has to pass if he want to HODL for long term. The real benefit of accumulating Bitcoin is to HODL it for longer duration and its where your patience is tested.

FTFY... As a reminder the comparison in your linked post is referring to past performance not future performance.

Of course by looking at previous price charts we can make predictions which can be true or false

I was super sleepy last night. Thanks for the FTFY

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February 11, 2024, 12:19:03 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #66

For sure, for anyone who has BTC accumulation goals, when in doubt DCA, it is likely superior to both lump sum and buying on dip for the vast majority of folks, especially in their earlier stages of building their BTC holdings, especially since an overwhelming number of normies do not even have any kind of realistic option of lump sum (without devolving into gambling) and if they do have some lump sum available, it may well even be better to figure out some kind of a DCA way to strategize their lump sum that would not just be putting it all in at once which might convert them into a waiting strategy, especially if they over do their lump sum from the beginning.. ..

And, any how, DCA can become even more powerful when supplemented with lump sum and buying on dips, yet we would still have to presume some abilities to incorporate those lump sum and buying on dips, which tends to be some kind of lump sum being available or perhaps some sufficient level of already having had bought BTC in order to justify already largely being prepared for UP... so the punchline, when in doubt DCA, structure your DCA to a reasonable level of your disposable income (and maybe you have to adjust up and down on a weekly basis depending on cashflow variations), and don't be waiting around, especially when it comes to BTC and making sure (at all times) that you are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP... even if the BTC price is dipping and continuing to dip, make sure to continue to prepare for UP.. which DCA does seem to help in accomplishing such.

It's really great to see such words from someone who's even older than me in this forum. As I said before, I only give one advice to newbies, as I consider it the only foolproof way to ensure you gain something.

I keep saying that majority of us here don't have the knowledge, intelligence. Or access or wealth. To do anything really special or smart with our money. That's where DCA allows us to take advantage of Bitcoin while not sacrificing all the time and risk that others like traders/speculators do.

DCA takes away all that thinking and analyzing, and, as you say, allows everyone to come back at a time when they are capable of all that risk analysis etc.

It's just, a no lose way to make sure you don't lose time on getting in on BTC and don't lose time analysing and trying to jump ahead of market.

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February 11, 2024, 01:58:15 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #67

For sure, for anyone who has BTC accumulation goals, when in doubt DCA, it is likely superior to both lump sum and buying on dip for the vast majority of folks, especially in their earlier stages of building their BTC holdings, especially since an overwhelming number of normies do not even have any kind of realistic option of lump sum (without devolving into gambling) and if they do have some lump sum available, it may well even be better to figure out some kind of a DCA way to strategize their lump sum that would not just be putting it all in at once which might convert them into a waiting strategy, especially if they over do their lump sum from the beginning.. ..

And, any how, DCA can become even more powerful when supplemented with lump sum and buying on dips, yet we would still have to presume some abilities to incorporate those lump sum and buying on dips, which tends to be some kind of lump sum being available or perhaps some sufficient level of already having had bought BTC in order to justify already largely being prepared for UP... so the punchline, when in doubt DCA, structure your DCA to a reasonable level of your disposable income (and maybe you have to adjust up and down on a weekly basis depending on cashflow variations), and don't be waiting around, especially when it comes to BTC and making sure (at all times) that you are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP... even if the BTC price is dipping and continuing to dip, make sure to continue to prepare for UP.. which DCA does seem to help in accomplishing such.

It's really great to see such words from someone who's even older than me in this forum. As I said before, I only give one advice to newbies, as I consider it the only foolproof way to ensure you gain something.

I keep saying that majority of us here don't have the knowledge, intelligence. Or access or wealth. To do anything really special or smart with our money. That's where DCA allows us to take advantage of Bitcoin while not sacrificing all the time and risk that others like traders/speculators do.

DCA takes away all that thinking and analyzing, and, as you say, allows everyone to come back at a time when they are capable of all that risk analysis etc.

It's just, a no lose way to make sure you don't lose time on getting in on BTC and don't lose time analysing and trying to jump ahead of market.
You are right, and I think JJG is a senior person who is a motivator in terms of DCA strategy because his advice and what he always talks about regarding DCA is always correct and also makes sense. And I often read his posts because they can help and also motivate me in using the DCA strategy.
Actually, in my opinion, investing is easy to understand and can be done without difficulty, but you have to be consistent, one way is to invest regularly, which is known as the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) concept.
And many people feel afraid or doubtful and also feel unprepared because they feel they don't have the time and knowledge to do it, and there are also other reasons because they are not ready to face risks and fluctuating markets.
And none of that will be a problem for them because the DCA strategy makes it easy for them without having to have in-depth knowledge and also a lot of time to do it, the most important thing is to have a monthly income or salary. Being able to set aside money to buy Bitcoin regularly after prioritizing important needs and doing it for the long term, and this strategy is very important for the future as well as old age for a financially happy and peaceful life.

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February 11, 2024, 04:54:54 PM
 #68

For sure, for anyone who has BTC accumulation goals, when in doubt DCA, it is likely superior to both lump sum and buying on dip for the vast majority of folks, especially in their earlier stages of building their BTC holdings, especially since an overwhelming number of normies do not even have any kind of realistic option of lump sum (without devolving into gambling) and if they do have some lump sum available, it may well even be better to figure out some kind of a DCA way to strategize their lump sum that would not just be putting it all in at once which might convert them into a waiting strategy, especially if they over do their lump sum from the beginning.. ..

And, any how, DCA can become even more powerful when supplemented with lump sum and buying on dips, yet we would still have to presume some abilities to incorporate those lump sum and buying on dips, which tends to be some kind of lump sum being available or perhaps some sufficient level of already having had bought BTC in order to justify already largely being prepared for UP... so the punchline, when in doubt DCA, structure your DCA to a reasonable level of your disposable income (and maybe you have to adjust up and down on a weekly basis depending on cashflow variations), and don't be waiting around, especially when it comes to BTC and making sure (at all times) that you are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP... even if the BTC price is dipping and continuing to dip, make sure to continue to prepare for UP.. which DCA does seem to help in accomplishing such.

It's really great to see such words from someone who's even older than me in this forum. As I said before, I only give one advice to newbies, as I consider it the only foolproof way to ensure you gain something.

I keep saying that majority of us here don't have the knowledge, intelligence. Or access or wealth. To do anything really special or smart with our money. That's where DCA allows us to take advantage of Bitcoin while not sacrificing all the time and risk that others like traders/speculators do.

DCA takes away all that thinking and analyzing, and, as you say, allows everyone to come back at a time when they are capable of all that risk analysis etc.

It's just, a no lose way to make sure you don't lose time on getting in on BTC and don't lose time analysing and trying to jump ahead of market.
It is good you hit the nail by the head. DCA is the method I will recommend anytime any day to newbies or those struggling to achieve consistency in their bitcoin accumulation. It does not too much technical knowledge neither does it require huge capital to follow. It is possible for every class of income and I consider it a wonderful opportunity for those who are working and doing business and realizing money that is enough to for their basic needs and leave some reasonable balance, part of which can be saved in Bitcoin while the rest kept as reserve.

I have chosen to use the DCA method in buying bitcoin to save for the future, these were funds I would have spent for things that are not important but the DCA method have helped me see what those small regular income can help me accomplish in the future.

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February 11, 2024, 08:05:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #69

[edited out]
People who have Hodled Bitcoin for the past 10 years I believe can confirm this, because there's no way they could've made any losses, except maybe their wallets were compromised or something, but if it's loosing funds to the market, I doubt it's possible. I stand to be corrected.

There are always ways to lose money and past performance is not a guarantee to future results, even though you are talking about anyone who mostly held their coins more than 5 years is in profits, and these days anyone who DCA's for any period of time (more than a month or two) would be in profits so long as they were consistently buying simiilar quantities of BTC at regular intervals over the whole period of time.. such as weekly.

Of course people are not necessarily consistent, so if some folks might have front loaded their investment at various times in 2021 when the BTC price is higher than now, then it would not be clear how much they would have had to continue to invest in DCA and perhaps other tactics in order to be profitable at today's BTC prices.

Yes, I agree that past performances do not guarantee future results but we can agree that Bitcoin is the most established Crypto asset with the highest capitalization thereby giving some sort of advantage because there's only one out of a million chances that Bitcoin is going to crash or that it's going to dip and fail to recover. Again,  when we say past performances doesn't guarantee future results in Bitcoin, there could be exceptions when you're investing for the long-term, whether using the DCA or Lump Sum.

Yes, when it comes to DCAing, consistency is crucial. You won't truly reaping the benefits of DCAing if you simply buy when the price is high and sell when it falls. Additionally, I believe it's important to keep in mind that DCAing is only a method that might help to lower risk and possibly improve profits over time and not a guarantee of profit because anything can happen in the world of bitcoin.
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February 11, 2024, 08:32:52 PM
 #70

Honestly, I don't think hodling is that important. I agree that it's a very simple and very profitable long-term strategy with Bitcoin. But people can treat Bitcoin as money, selling and buying all the time. It's also fine to treat it like savings, taking out a part when needed, not when a hodling period is over. And then there's indefinite hodling, normally explained by phrases like 'if you wait long enough, you won't have to sell your BTC'. But what does it mean? Using it directly and exchanging for goods? Taking loans based on wealth you have in BTC, like rich people in the US do with traditional assets? Never using your Bitcoin (then what's the point of having it)?
There are many questions that people need to find their individual answers to.
It all depends on what we want in this case.
Doing the same thing as you said is also not a mistake because it is an asset that we have so we are free to do anything and make it a savings tool where when we need money then we can take it little by little from the profits we have. But on the other hand in this case determining that bitcoin is a tool for investment is also not wrong because everything has its own portion and each desire depends on our own perception.

Do what you think is profitable because being in bitcoin is not just to get hung up on what others are doing because in the end everyone has their own strategy and desire in setting bitcoin as their own will.

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February 11, 2024, 08:50:36 PM
 #71

BlackRock's Rick Rieder Talks Bitcoin With WSJ's Take On the Week
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-earnings-02-08-2024/card/blackrock-s-rick-rieder-talks-bitcoin-with-wsj-s-take-on-the-week-HqJNsb92geninqxoD1qb

___
When I see articles like this, I stop believing in price pumps. There are also other opinions that national currencies are crap, and the only way out is to buy Bitcoin.
The only thing I don’t know is the level to which the price will pump, but then we will fly down.
If you listen to well-known experts, then look at what they said following the last fall in the price of Bitcoin.
Something like this will definitely happen because after all when we are entering bullish then there will definitely be a lot of people who talk positively about bitcoin especially for those who have advantages in media issues because after all they will prepare for what to do where bitcoin continues to soar and prepare to drop it back just like before.

They experts can sometimes change statements directly just for their own benefit but for now it is certain that bitcoin will definitely continue to be hailed because they also realize if they are still an antagonist for bitcoin now it will not be too useful but it could be a trap because when we trust the experts too much it is we ourselves who will eventually become a hassle.
I personally will not be too interested in what they say because however the current statement may change in the future but most importantly our confidence will not fade with bitcoin.

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February 12, 2024, 11:08:19 AM
 #72

Honestly, I don't think hodling is that important. I agree that it's a very simple and very profitable long-term strategy with Bitcoin. But people can treat Bitcoin as money, selling and buying all the time. It's also fine to treat it like savings, taking out a part when needed, not when a hodling period is over. And then there's indefinite hodling, normally explained by phrases like 'if you wait long enough, you won't have to sell your BTC'. But what does it mean? Using it directly and exchanging for goods? Taking loans based on wealth you have in BTC, like rich people in the US do with traditional assets? Never using your Bitcoin (then what's the point of having it)?
There are many questions that people need to find their individual answers to.
No doubt, "hodling" has several approaches, each with its own benefits. I believe Bitcoin is more than an investment or cash. It's valuable for its versatility. Bitcoin can be sold, bought, or used as a store of value

Thoughtful patience is "hodling". We're not just waiting; Bitcoin has the ability to change our wealth approach. Leveraging assets without liquidation is becoming more accepted as an asset class, as shown by this technique. Your questions are valid and inspire investor own growth. Bitcoin should be seen as a money and an investment

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February 12, 2024, 02:45:20 PM
 #73

[edited out]
Yes, I agree that past performances do not guarantee future results but we can agree that Bitcoin is the most established Crypto asset with the highest capitalization thereby giving some sort of advantage because there's only one out of a million chances that Bitcoin is going to crash or that it's going to dip and fail to recover. Again,  when we say past performances doesn't guarantee future results in Bitcoin, there could be exceptions when you're investing for the long-term, whether using the DCA or Lump Sum.

There cannot be any exception to the rule that past performance does not guarantee future results because the past is the past and it is guaranteed, and the future is not guaranteed. 

The main thing that we can do in regards to the future is to assign probabilities, and the mere fact that we are able to assign high probabilities still does not make the future prediction guaranteed. 

I will concede that in several ways bitcoin has a lot of high probabilities, depending on how the questions are framed - but there are so many ways that it is not like a rock (and is a rock even guaranteed to keep its form?).. there is electricity involved, networking, computer software, various natural and man made events.. .. and even given all of that, there is quite a bit of solidness within bitcoin as compared with other manmade (or man discovered) phenomena...

I will also not deny that there is a lot of exceptionalism in regards to bitcoin, including that there is no other asset or shitcoin that even comes close to rivaling it, but still that does not make it guaranteed, it only makes it relatively better than everything else.. and so we should be able to have confidence in allocating accordingly.. even while knowing that past results do not guarantee future performance.

Yes, when it comes to DCAing, consistency is crucial. You won't truly reaping the benefits of DCAing if you simply buy when the price is high and sell when it falls. Additionally, I believe it's important to keep in mind that DCAing is only a method that might help to lower risk and possibly improve profits over time and not a guarantee of profit because anything can happen in the world of bitcoin.

You even agree that bitcoin's future performance is not guaranteed.

I frequently like to suggest that we can rest assured with DCA only if we have a bit of a strong presumption that the overall trajectory of whatever asset that we are investing into (in this case bitcoin) has an upward price trajectory - and most likely to be up relative to the amount that we put into it at time that we are going to need to cash out some or all of the value that we put into it... so yeah, of course, we want to think in terms of real value rather than nominal value and we also might not exactly know our timeline, including that our timeline might end up being quite spread out 15-30 years down the road or some other ballpark ideas of a timeline in regards to when we might consider that we are planning to start cashing out of some or all of our BTC holdings... and even our planned timeline for cashing out could end up going out further or might end up getting cut short due to some emergency situation that we might get ourselves into.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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February 12, 2024, 04:22:27 PM
 #74

The only thing I looked at is the price history whenever I see bitcoin price go down because I know it is not permanent and it will be just like that for a while and when it recovers from that kind of scenario, it always creates another ATH despite it hit the alarming price rate but most people don't know this and they get panicked easily. They use the money they can't afford to lose and some of them even take loans just to invest in bitcoins which is not recommended because you won't get the peace of mind you need when you are worried about your investment. You should just invest the amount you have and you are not planning to spend on some important matters when you follow that easy step, you should be holding peacefully no matter what the outcome of the price is for a while.

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February 12, 2024, 05:01:59 PM
 #75

The strategy of holding cryptocurrency assets despite market fluctuations without succumbing to the temptation of short-term trading is called HODLing in the cryptocurrency world.  Although this word is a misspelling.  Still it has gained wide popularity through online.  HODLing is a strong determination that metaphorically explores the map of the HODL camp. Literally reinforces the commitment to hold Bitcoin in a strong hand so the market ups and downs represent the ups and downs.  By creating a mental map and maintaining a consistent approach, the investor can live with the promise of a long-term potential profit that addresses the volatility inherent in the crypto space.
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February 12, 2024, 05:53:16 PM
 #76

The strategy of holding cryptocurrency assets despite market fluctuations without succumbing to the temptation of short-term trading is called HODLing in the cryptocurrency world.  Although this word is a misspelling.  Still it has gained wide popularity through online.  HODLing is a strong determination that metaphorically explores the map of the HODL camp. Literally reinforces the commitment to hold Bitcoin in a strong hand so the market ups and downs represent the ups and downs.  By creating a mental map and maintaining a consistent approach, the investor can live with the promise of a long-term potential profit that addresses the volatility inherent in the crypto space.

Fuck crypto.

We are talking about bitcoin here.

There is no real evidence that supports that HODL generally applies to shitcoins.. so if you are talking about bitcoin, then yeah the idea of HODL applies because ultimately BTC is a long term investment with strong fundamentals.. so either we HODL, if we are not ready, willing and/or able to buy more or we buy more, that is if we are in BTC accumulation stages.  We can also change our strategy that does not involve as much HODL, if we have over accumulated or if we might otherwise be in a position to change our strategy a bit away from HODL, but likely even if someone might get away from accumulation stage, he still may well choose not to sell all of his bitcoin, absent some emergency kinds of situation, and if he does not have other assets / currency upon which he can draw upon first.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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February 12, 2024, 06:45:22 PM
 #77

[edited out]
Yes, I agree that past performances do not guarantee future results but we can agree that Bitcoin is the most established Crypto asset with the highest capitalization thereby giving some sort of advantage because there's only one out of a million chances that Bitcoin is going to crash or that it's going to dip and fail to recover. Again,  when we say past performances doesn't guarantee future results in Bitcoin, there could be exceptions when you're investing for the long-term, whether using the DCA or Lump Sum.

There cannot be any exception to the rule that past performance does not guarantee future results because the past is the past and it is guaranteed, and the future is not guaranteed. 

The main thing that we can do in regards to the future is to assign probabilities, and the mere fact that we are able to assign high probabilities still does not make the future prediction guaranteed. 

I will concede that in several ways bitcoin has a lot of high probabilities, depending on how the questions are framed - but there are so many ways that it is not like a rock (and is a rock even guaranteed to keep its form?).. there is electricity involved, networking, computer software, various natural and man made events.. .. and even given all of that, there is quite a bit of solidness within bitcoin as compared with other manmade (or man discovered) phenomena...

I will also not deny that there is a lot of exceptionalism in regards to bitcoin, including that there is no other asset or shitcoin that even comes close to rivaling it, but still that does not make it guaranteed, it only makes it relatively better than everything else.. and so we should be able to have confidence in allocating accordingly.. even while knowing that past results do not guarantee future performance.

Yes, when it comes to DCAing, consistency is crucial. You won't truly reaping the benefits of DCAing if you simply buy when the price is high and sell when it falls. Additionally, I believe it's important to keep in mind that DCAing is only a method that might help to lower risk and possibly improve profits over time and not a guarantee of profit because anything can happen in the world of bitcoin.

You even agree that bitcoin's future performance is not guaranteed.

I frequently like to suggest that we can rest assured with DCA only if we have a bit of a strong presumption that the overall trajectory of whatever asset that we are investing into (in this case bitcoin) has an upward price trajectory - and most likely to be up relative to the amount that we put into it at time that we are going to need to cash out some or all of the value that we put into it... so yeah, of course, we want to think in terms of real value rather than nominal value and we also might not exactly know our timeline, including that our timeline might end up being quite spread out 15-30 years down the road or some other ballpark ideas of a timeline in regards to when we might consider that we are planning to start cashing out of some or all of our BTC holdings... and even our planned timeline for cashing out could end up going out further or might end up getting cut short due to some emergency situation that we might get ourselves into.

Agreeably, In a way, no matter how much information we gather, the future is never really definite. However, as you said, we may utilize that information to assign probabilities and arrive at well-informed conclusions. Furthermore, it appears that Bitcoin has some special characteristics that make it stand out from other assets. As an illustration, consider its scarceness and its autonomy from centralized authority. However, as you pointed out, there are no assurances.

But when we think about it, how do we go about making decisions about the future if we are unable to predict it with complete certainty? Assigning probabilities to each of the many alternative possibilities is, in my opinion, one way to come up with a solution. For instance, there are a number of potential outcomes for Bitcoin: it might take over as the primary means of transaction, be overtaken by another cryptocurrency, get banned by governments, become archaic and replaced by something else entirely, etc. Additionally, we can give each of these scenarios a probability. We can therefore still make decisions based on the probability we assign to each possible result even though we can never know for sure what will happen.

So even if we can't be 100% certain, we can still make an informed decision about how much to invest in Bitcoin, how much risk to take, etc. so when I say there's an exception, what I simply mean is that, with the facts gathered from both present and past events, the probabilities assigned to Bitcoin acting differently from it's past performances. Considering those probabilities as certainty is the risk involved in Investment. Without the risks, there won't be any rewards.
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February 12, 2024, 06:49:52 PM
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That's true. risk will always be present in investing, regardless of the technique you use. However, as you pointed out, there are ways to reduce that risk, including lump sum investment and DCA. It's important, in my opinion, to keep in mind that everyone has a different level of risk tolerance; some people may feel more at ease with certain levels of risk, while others may wish to lessen it.  

In any case, I think it's critical to take into account your personal risk profile. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to risk tolerance. Certain individuals are naturally more at ease with risk than others. It's also critical to consider your investment timeline. When investing for the long term, for instance, you could be more ready to take on more risk because you will have more time to make up for any short-term losses. However, you may want to prioritize risk minimization and exercise extra caution if you're investing for a short period of time.


I feel comfortable with long term strategy and since I don't have huge capital I accumulate in DCA manner. What I have learn so far is that time matter a lot if you are in bitcoin. The longer you have ability to hold more is your chances of great ROI. If you don't believe that then go check yourself from previous data. There will be more risk if you are investing for short duration. With time as we invest, the more we come to know about how to accumulate bitcoin for the long term.

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February 12, 2024, 08:14:29 PM
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[edited out]
... so when I say there's an exception, what I simply mean is that, with the facts gathered from both present and past events, the probabilities assigned to Bitcoin acting differently from it's past performances. Considering those probabilities as certainty is the risk involved in Investment. Without the risks, there won't be any rewards.

Of course, we can invest into bitcoin in a way in which we are not putting all of our eggs in the one basket, but still come out of the situation very much better than we would have had been if we had not invested, and I am not even suggesting to invest into anything other than bitcoin and having your shit together in regards to your cashflows, expenses, emergency fund, reserves and float, and since bitcoin is such an asymmetric bet, many of us should be able to prosper quite well by just attempting to invest as aggressively as we can without recking ourselves.

Surely a problem with poor people is that they do not have very much discretionary income, and maybe they have troubles to be able to increase their discretionary income, and even though they still will benefit from a bitcoin system, they will benefit even more personally if they can figure out ways to increase their discretionary income so that they can invest into bitcoin without recking themselves..... so the balance is not easy for some one who is poor and just getting into bitcoin with $10 per week or something like that because it can take a decently long time to build up a BTC stash when the investment amount is so low.. even though surely we can see those who invested $10 per week over the past 10 years did end up doing quite well with maybe more than $5k invested and maybe more than 4.5 BTC currently.., even if it might not have had been very clear whether an ongoing $10 per week investment would end up paying off.. and surely the earlier years of investing had more compounding effects in terms of the value appreciation of the BTC purchases.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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February 13, 2024, 08:23:52 PM
Last edit: February 13, 2024, 08:36:27 PM by Gormicsta
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 #80

[edited out]
... so when I say there's an exception, what I simply mean is that, with the facts gathered from both present and past events, the probabilities assigned to Bitcoin acting differently from it's past performances. Considering those probabilities as certainty is the risk involved in Investment. Without the risks, there won't be any rewards.

Of course, we can invest into bitcoin in a way in which we are not putting all of our eggs in the one basket, but still come out of the situation very much better than we would have had been if we had not invested, and I am not even suggesting to invest into anything other than bitcoin and having your shit together in regards to your cashflows, expenses, emergency fund, reserves and float, and since bitcoin is such an asymmetric bet, many of us should be able to prosper quite well by just attempting to invest as aggressively as we can without recking ourselves.

Due to its uniqueness, Bitcoin has the potential for a significant asymmetric reward, which implies that the upside is far greater than the downside. Because of the enormous potential payoff, it is often profitable to take a chance on Bitcoin, despite the inherent risk. It's similar to playing the lottery; but with far better odds. And I couldn't agree more with you on how you pointed out that it's not just about investing in Bitcoin, it's also about having your financial life in order and making sure you're not over-extending yourself.

In my opinion Finding a way to keep up with their other financial obligations is one of the biggest challenges for anyone looking to invest in Bitcoin. It's easy to get caught up in the hype and excitement of Bitcoin and lose sight of the fact that you still need to pay your bills and have money for emergencies. To invest in Bitcoin, some people might even be tempted to take out loans or incur debt, which is not a wise move. It is crucial to keep in mind that you should never invest more money than you are willing to lose.

I feel comfortable with long term strategy and since I don't have huge capital I accumulate in DCA manner. What I have learn so far is that time matter a lot if you are in bitcoin. The longer you have ability to hold more is your chances of great ROI. If you don't believe that then go check yourself from previous data. There will be more risk if you are investing for short duration. With time as we invest, the more we come to know about how to accumulate bitcoin for the long term.

You've hit the nail on the head when you say that one of the most crucial elements in investing in Bitcoin is time. Your chances of getting a good return on your investment increase with the length of time you can hang onto your Bitcoin. Similar to a snowball effect, your investment will increase over time. Additionally, as you mentioned, you'll gain more knowledge on how to maximize your investment over time. The misconception that most people have when investing in Bitcoin is that it's a get-rich-quick scheme, but that's clearly not the case and that if they just start investing in Bitcoin, they'd be rich in a month or two, and this infact is the actual reason why most Bitcoin investors go into the short-term trade and they end up loosing money and giving Bitcoin a bad name, they go all in without really having the knowledge of what they are doing and then at the end incur losses for themselves. Bitcoin is more of a long-term game, and if you really wanna rip the true benefit of Bitcoin, then going long-term will definitely help you achieve that.
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