2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[philipma1957]

And you think it’s still possible to find energy under 4 cents? Does it have to be very big contracts, for that to be possible, or not?

"Big contracts" is not a very accurate statement, it's more like "HUGE contracts" like hundreds of MWs worth of power, we talking the billions level of money, not just millions, as Phill said, it's Mara, and the big boys trying to kill every last bit of competition from the lower-tier folks, in fact, given that those big guys have other expenses which are usually higher than the lower-tier folks, they are also in deep shit to some extent, it's now a matter of who has the longer breath, who would chicken out first.

And then you got the folks that you don't often hear about, huge farms are being built in places like Oman with power rates below 4 cents, the last article I read talked about $350M just for constructing the site, you now have crazy Arab money added to the already crazy U.S money, to an industry that is impossible to predict, it's basically a shit-show and things will only get worse for small miners, and when I say small -- that includes the 1-5MW folks, the game has been upped to 50MW and above, you can no longer flex your 1MW farm, it's game over.

yeah if you study gold mining they lowered profits bigly for mining.

a “small” guy is not going to be under 5 cents.

by small a 1.2 megawatt container.

if you load it with t21s and set t21 and set 160 th. they pull 2.5 kwatts

you can run 300 units. burning 750 kwatts.

cost is  300 x 3000 = 900,000

the container and the transformer push 200,000

so 1.1 million.

and you could crank it up 🆙 if mining gets hot.

but right now that 1.1 million setup makes about 1000 a day profit.

after power.  so you laid out 1.1 million to make 365000 in year one.

if the big miners grind the 4 cent a th number down to 3 cent a th number that 365k drops to.
182k.

so  here is how it works.
160 x 4 = 6.40 earned against 60 kwatts x 5 cent or 3 bucks is 3.40profit x 300 = 1020 a day
but 160 x 3 = 4.80 earned against 60 x 5 or 1.80 x 300 = 540 a day

huge difference if they can for e profits lower.

how would you like to lay out 1.1 million and make back only 185k you would be close to 900k in the hole.

this is becasue your 1 container  with five cent power is going up against 200 container miner with 2-3 cent contract.

they know if they drop your earnings on 1.1 million under 200k you will never clear the investment nut.

it is done for miners unless you are tiny and do not look at the money spent as a profit thing.

you can small mine to a blind address and just leave the money alone. you earnings will be anonymous to a certain degree.

[joker_josue]

And then you got the folks that you don't often hear about, huge farms are being built in places like Oman with power rates below 4 cents, the last article I read talked about $350M just for constructing the site, you now have crazy Arab money added to the already crazy U.S money, to an industry that is impossible to predict, it's basically a shit-show and things will only get worse for small miners, and when I say small -- that includes the 1-5MW folks, the game has been upped to 50MW and above, you can no longer flex your 1MW farm, it's game over.

Do you guys think that's a good thing for Bitcoin?
What hazards can this bring the medio term to the network?

[mikeywith]

Do you guys think that's a good thing for Bitcoin?
What hazards can this bring the medio term to the network?

Generally, it's a bad thing for BTC, when only a few large entities can afford to mine BTC then

1- Censorship can be more effective:

Since they mine most of the blocks, if they blacklist your address and you want to make a transaction, it could be stuck for days, eventually, even stuck for months depending on the percentage they own

2- Regulation will be easily imposed, large firms can't just ignore the authorities, if the government tells them to do this or that with BTC, they will have to do it.


When people talk about mining pool centralization, I have always said that pool decentralization is far less dangerous than the centralization of hash power ownership, just take a scenario where 80% of the hash rate is owned by 3 U.S firms, they can do anything they want, besides, all it takes to damage the network would be some stupid regulation from the U.S administration.

[philipma1957]

Do you guys think that's a good thing for Bitcoin?
What hazards can this bring the medio term to the network?

Generally, it's a bad thing for BTC, when only a few large entities can afford to mine BTC then

1- Censorship can be more effective:

Since they mine most of the blocks, if they blacklist your address and you want to make a transaction, it could be stuck for days, eventually, even stuck for months depending on the percentage they own

2- Regulation will be easily imposed, large firms can't just ignore the authorities, if the government tells them to do this or that with BTC, they will have to do it.


When people talk about mining pool centralization, I have always said that pool decentralization is far less dangerous than the centralization of hash power ownership, just take a scenario where 80% of the hash rate is owned by 3 U.S firms, they can do anything they want, besides, all it takes to damage the network would be some stupid regulation from the U.S administration.

it is how you can or may kill btc.

big exchanges vs big mining groups.

a show down between them is developing.

coinbase used LN on the back end to move btc.

they now use  ai.


follow this path blockchains big fees will have to keep btc alive when blocks are under 0.2 coins

LN still needs the main blockchain so LN will eventually save the day.
nope cause now ai allows no mainchain no ln yet coins move.

so big exchanges are looking to take all coins fully off chain and off ln.

thus almost no fees. hmm kills off btc mining bigly.  so big mining groups are trying to get bigger to fight big exchanges.

this is all going to shake out in a decade or two 2️⃣

[joker_josue]

When people talk about mining pool centralization, I have always said that pool decentralization is far less dangerous than the centralization of hash power ownership, just take a scenario where 80% of the hash rate is owned by 3 U.S firms, they can do anything they want, besides, all it takes to damage the network would be some stupid regulation from the U.S administration.

I have the same opinion.
Regrettably, I have the feeling there is little debate about it, and people seem to be unworthy about that situation.

thus almost no fees. hmm kills off btc mining bigly.  so big mining groups are trying to get bigger to fight big exchanges.

this is all going to shake out in a decade or two 2️⃣

I really hadn't thought about it yet. Exchanges also enter that "game" that will become a battle, which may not be very possible.

The community ended up giving much power to those two sides of the barricade, and now it can be hard to take that power out.

I just hope the end result, be something positive for Bitcoin, not negative how to seem to be.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   860705  (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.6857%  (1890 / 1805.40 expected, 84.6 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   86871474313761.95                           
Current Difficulty:   89471664776970.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 93741839885054 and 93759388172944
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.7727% and +4.7923%
Previous Retarget:   August 28, 2024 at 10:13 AM  (+2.9931%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:11 PM  (in 0d 20h 3m 36s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:14 PM  (in 0d 20h 7m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 8h 57m 39s and 13d 9h 1m 10s

84 blocks ahead

+4.6%

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   860705  (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.6857%  (1890 / 1805.40 expected, 84.6 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   86871474313761.95                            
Current Difficulty:   89471664776970.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 93741839885054 and 93759388172944
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.7727% and +4.7923%
Previous Retarget:   August 28, 2024 at 10:13 AM  (+2.9931%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:11 PM  (in 0d 20h 3m 36s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:14 PM  (in 0d 20h 7m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 8h 57m 39s and 13d 9h 1m 10s

84 blocks ahead

+4.6%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   860819  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.6330%  (2004 / 1933.75 expected, 70.25 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   86871474313761.95                            
Current Difficulty:   89471664776970.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 92810212809231 and 92810335515084
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.7314% and +3.7315%
Previous Retarget:   August 28, 2024 at 10:13 AM  (+2.9931%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 10:26 PM  (in 0d 1h 55m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 10:26 PM  (in 0d 1h 55m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 13m 15s and 13d 12h 13m 17s

12 to go looks like we will be over 92.5t for the diff which is a new record.

the old record was 90.6t

that was a few jumps back.

we will take a hit in earnings and go to about 3.95 cents a th

that is about $7.90 for a s21 which does around 90 kwatts a day  so a 10 cent miner is

$7.90 - $9.00 = $1.10 in the hole 10 cent miner
$7.90 - $8.10 = $0.20 in the hole 9 cent miner

$7.90 - $7.20 = $0.70 plus for a 8 cent miner
$7.90 - $6.30 = $1.60 plus for a 7 cent miner
$7.90 - $5.40 = $2.50 plus for  a 6 cent miner you would have about 1500 days to pay the gear off which is terrible
$7.90 - $4.50 = $3.40 plus for a 5 cent miner you would have about  1100 days to pay the gear off which is poor
$7.90 - $3.60 = $4.30 plus for a 4 cent miner you would have about    860 days to pay the gear off which is meh at best. this is  the worst number I have even seen for 4 cent power roi
$7.90 - $2.70 = $5.20 plus for a 3 cent miner you would pay off in       711 days to pay off the gear. this approaches tolerable




Now I can tell you  3 cent miner includes the mine the infrastructure all gear repairs and all labor.  So miners are pushed really really really hard right now

How about a 2 cent guy

$7.90 - $1.80 = $6.10 plus or a 606 day pay off.

There are not a lot places with 2 cent power including:

the cooling
the labor
the property
the repair to gear.

So we are low enough that mines should contract.

I have to think more places are at 3 cost  then 2 cost. once you add in all other costs.

So uppity needs to happen

[joker_josue]

So uppity needs to happen

As they say, the bubble is about to burst

Are we close to seeing the first major crisis in the bitcoin world?

[Nexus9090]

So uppity needs to happen

As they say, the bubble is about to burst

Are we close to seeing the first major crisis in the bitcoin world?

By major crisis, what do you mean exactly?

[philipma1957]

well fractal mining has caused a huge hashrate move

https://explorer.unisat.io/fractal-mainnet/mining

200 eh shift at the moment


https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   860876  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   77.0473%  (45 / 58.41 expected, 13.41 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   89471664776970.77                           
Current Difficulty:   92671576265161.06                           
Next Difficulty:   between 75278346923313 and 91735896679906
Next Difficulty Change:   between -18.7687% and -1.0097%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 10:55 PM  (+3.5765%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 25, 2024 at 3:20 AM  (in 13d 18h 41m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 29, 2024 at 3:01 AM  (in 17d 18h 21m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 25m 7s and 18d 4h 5m 44s


and huge spike in nicehash payouts if you are point hash there

https://www.nicehash.com/my/marketplace/SHA256ASICBOOST


1.3 is going rate and it should be 0.69


now this shit has happened before in btc land

and lasts a while so lets see how long this while is.


I was earning 25 usd a day  on nicehash. I was in the red say a 2 dollar loss each day

I am earning 45 usd a day today on nicehash I am in the black say an 18 day profit each day.

[joker_josue]

So uppity needs to happen

As they say, the bubble is about to burst

Are we close to seeing the first major crisis in the bitcoin world?

By major crisis, what do you mean exactly?

I'm being a little ironic.
But it will be a crisis for many miners who will be forced to disconnect from the machines

Now we are seeing what the impact will be, of mining being concentrated in super large miners.

[mikeywith]

well fractal mining has caused a huge hashrate move

https://explorer.unisat.io/fractal-mainnet/mining

200 eh shift at the moment


https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   860876  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   77.0473%  (45 / 58.41 expected, 13.41 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   89471664776970.77                           
Current Difficulty:   92671576265161.06                           
Next Difficulty:   between 75278346923313 and 91735896679906
Next Difficulty Change:   between -18.7687% and -1.0097%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 10:55 PM  (+3.5765%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 25, 2024 at 3:20 AM  (in 13d 18h 41m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 29, 2024 at 3:01 AM  (in 17d 18h 21m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 25m 7s and 18d 4h 5m 44s


and huge spike in nicehash payouts if you are point hash there

https://www.nicehash.com/my/marketplace/SHA256ASICBOOST


1.3 is going rate and it should be 0.69


now this shit has happened before in btc land

and lasts a while so lets see how long this while is.


I was earning 25 usd a day  on nicehash. I was in the red say a 2 dollar loss each day

I am earning 45 usd a day today on nicehash I am in the black say an 18 day profit each day.

But wait a minute, Fractal Bitcoin is supposed to be Merged-Mined & permissionlessly-mined with a ratio of 1:2, that means, there is likely no "hashrate moving", it just pools activating the merged coin or choosing not to, for example, Antpool active that by default but only for PPLNS payment mode, I think that 77% pace was just the result of variance given the small sample of 58 blocks, obviously, if Fractal earns some serious value then mining BTC does too.

I'd also imagine some people might be mining fractal permissionlessly but that won't be anywhere near 200EH that's for sure or else the affect on the current pace would have been great, i'd say it's no more than 50EH maximum, the rest is all just merged-mined with mother BTC.

[joker_josue]

and huge spike in nicehash payouts if you are point hash there

https://www.nicehash.com/my/marketplace/SHA256ASICBOOST


1.3 is going rate and it should be 0.69


now this shit has happened before in btc land

and lasts a while so lets see how long this while is.


I was earning 25 usd a day  on nicehash. I was in the red say a 2 dollar loss each day

I am earning 45 usd a day today on nicehash I am in the black say an 18 day profit each day.

So, but suddenly they started paying double for hash?
What motivates this type of action? It's not normal, much less something that makes sense at this time.

Is someone trying to lose money or am I not understanding these numbers at all...

[philipma1957]

and huge spike in nicehash payouts if you are point hash there

https://www.nicehash.com/my/marketplace/SHA256ASICBOOST


1.3 is going rate and it should be 0.69


now this shit has happened before in btc land

and lasts a while so lets see how long this while is.


I was earning 25 usd a day  on nicehash. I was in the red say a 2 dollar loss each day

I am earning 45 usd a day today on nicehash I am in the black say an 18 day profit each day.

So, but suddenly they started paying double for hash?
What motivates this type of action? It's not normal, much less something that makes sense at this time.

Is someone trying to lose money or am I not understanding these numbers at all...

It was pre mining of fractal btc. The overpayments have ended.

[mikeywith]

So, but suddenly they started paying double for hash?
What motivates this type of action? It's not normal, much less something that makes sense at this time.

Is someone trying to lose money or am I not understanding these numbers at all...

Payment swings are pretty normal on Nicehash since the hash rent is used for all sorts of purposes, I still remember not too long ago when they were paying like 7x IIRC for a few days, someone was performing a 51% attack on some Sha256 coin and wanted all the hashrate they could get, and then you get student spikes value in some altcoins where people want to mine that coin and are willing to pay more.

Also, sometimes you get stupid people outbidding each other for exactly no reason, so overall, it's pretty normal, it's also not uncommon for NH to pay less than directly mining to a pool, so anyone wanting to make profit from NH should always monitor the current status and even better, do it with a script that would automatically switch since these swings happen really fast.

[joker_josue]

So, but suddenly they started paying double for hash?
What motivates this type of action? It's not normal, much less something that makes sense at this time.

Is someone trying to lose money or am I not understanding these numbers at all...

Payment swings are pretty normal on Nicehash since the hash rent is used for all sorts of purposes, I still remember not too long ago when they were paying like 7x IIRC for a few days, someone was performing a 51% attack on some Sha256 coin and wanted all the hashrate they could get, and then you get student spikes value in some altcoins where people want to mine that coin and are willing to pay more.

Also, sometimes you get stupid people outbidding each other for exactly no reason, so overall, it's pretty normal, it's also not uncommon for NH to pay less than directly mining to a pool, so anyone wanting to make profit from NH should always monitor the current status and even better, do it with a script that would automatically switch since these swings happen really fast.

I actually thought about configuring NH so that it can use my GPU to mine, when it would eventually be minimally profitable, to take advantage of these peaks. But, my mining power is very low, I ended up concluding that I wouldn't have much use for it.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   862028  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.4731%  (1197 / 1280.58 expected, 83.58 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   89471664776970.77                           
Current Difficulty:   92671576265161.06                           
Next Difficulty:   between 86826984970063 and 87740242316137
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.3068% and -5.3213%
Previous Retarget:   September 10, 2024 at 10:55 PM  (+3.5765%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 6:31 PM  (in 5d 22h 9m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 10:23 PM  (in 6d 2h 1m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 19h 35m 22s and 14d 23h 27m 41s

maybe some relief for mining coming up 🆙

price is up to 63k and we are down 6%

mining will gain

[mikeywith]

Actually here is an interesting page to watch hashrate estimates for Fractal https://explorer.unisat.io/fractal-mainnet/mining

We should ignore the "Merged Mining" numbers since those mine BTC as well, but look at "Permissionless Mining", we now have 20EH mining Fractal only, and were as high as 34EH, so that's 3% to 4% of the total available hashrate, with the current pace being -6% it could be 3-4% "Fractal" and the rest is just "luck", so it's possible that there is no actually hashrate drop, or maybe it's just a tiny 1% or so.

We shall find out when FB hype is done with.

[Nexus9090]

Actually here is an interesting page to watch hashrate estimates for Fractal https://explorer.unisat.io/fractal-mainnet/mining

We should ignore the "Merged Mining" numbers since those mine BTC as well, but look at "Permissionless Mining", we now have 20EH mining Fractal only, and were as high as 34EH, so that's 3% to 4% of the total available hashrate, with the current pace being -6% it could be 3-4% "Fractal" and the rest is just "luck", so it's possible that there is no actually hashrate drop, or maybe it's just a tiny 1% or so.

We shall find out when FB hype is done with.

Fractal is a dud for the home miner, just not profitable. The only way it would work for the home miner is if there were solo pools for it. Spiderpool suggests they have one in operation but it looks like invite only, so again pointless.

Home miners pushed aside yet again by big farms.

[mikeywith]

Fractal is a dud for the home miner, just not profitable. The only way it would work for the home miner is if there were solo pools for it. Spiderpool suggests they have one in operation but it looks like invite only, so again pointless.

Home miners pushed aside yet again by big farms.

The total hashrate for Fractal as of right now is about 220EH, that's like 30% of the entire SHA256 hash power that we know exists, that much can't be coming from home miners, and quite honestly anyone who mines Fractal Bitcoin on permissionless mode is just a gambler, they are hopping for the price to spike, otherwise, just Megrge mine it and still make the same BTC + whatever you get from Fractal, it's 2:1 ratio so it isn't all that bad.

As for home miners, they are done for the most part regardless of which coin they mine, the game has changed, and the ship has sailed but some people don't want to see the truth.