2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[philipma1957]

10 cent power

S19xp burns 75kwatts cost $7.50 a day. It earns 141x.05= $7.05 so at 10 cent power every type of s19 is bad

The t21 burns same 7.50 but earns 190x.05=9.50 that is plus $2

So every 21 model makes a profit

Before this peak in Bitcoin appreciation, was it profitable to keep models 21 in operation?

yeah 8 cent worked for the t21

the diff kept up solid and while 87k looks good.

5.2 or 5.3 cents a th is where we are at.

we were as low as 4.6 or 4.7 cents a th so the gain is good not great.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   870059  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.8234%  (1164 / 1154.49 expected, 9.51 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   95672703408223.94                           
Current Difficulty:   101646843652785.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 102391221416809 and 102554527135301
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7323% and +0.8930%
Previous Retarget:   November 4, 2024 at 5:20 PM  (+6.2444%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 2:35 PM  (in 5d 20h 50m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 3:04 PM  (in 5d 21h 19m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 15m 22s and 13d 21h 44m 46s

so we were 101.6 diff on nov 4 and price was a low as 66.9k

we are at close to 102.5 diff on nov 12 and price was at 89.8k

a 1% diff jump vs a 33% price jump

even with these numbers home miners are shut out.

the real question is do we go to proper jump and let a 20 cent miner turn profit. of a 21 miner like the s21

this means a price over 160k more like 210k if we go to 210k we have

 a s21 earning 25 a day and burning 8 dollars at 10 cents or 16 dollars at 20 cents.

If the amount of mining online is the true value we need to see a much bigger price than a mere 89k

[philipma1957]

about ten days in a huge rise in price and yet the diff has dropped just a bit

newhedge.io


Latest Block:   870477  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2114%  (1582 / 1594.57 expected, 12.57 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   95672703408223.94                            
Current Difficulty:   101646843652785.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 100895711961776 and 100930277399311
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.7390% and -0.7050%
Previous Retarget:   November 4, 2024 at 5:20 PM  (+6.2444%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 7:52 PM  (in 3d 0h 47m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 8:00 PM  (in 3d 0h 54m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 32m 48s and 14d 2h 40m 14s

So has the best possible thing happened for smaller miners have the big companies max most of their capacity?

If so man are we going to see a wild ride.

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   871353  (an hour ago)

Current Pace:   108.3712%  (442 / 407.86 expected, 34.14 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   101646843652785.2                           
Current Difficulty:   102289407543323.8                           
Next Difficulty:   between 105668473822385 and 111414958989729
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.3034% and +8.9213%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 3:21 PM  (+0.6322%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 1, 2024 at 1:24 PM  (in 10d 2h 4m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 2, 2024 at 5:13 AM  (in 10d 17h 53m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 2m 44s and 13d 13h 52m 0s

early but this may be legit rise as we are very big on the price right now.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   871846  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.2978%  (935 / 905.15 expected, 29.85 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   101646843652785.2                           
Current Difficulty:   102289407543323.8                           
Next Difficulty:   between 104838611507326 and 105903694883148
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.4921% and +3.5334%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 3:21 PM  (+0.6322%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 2, 2024 at 4:37 AM  (in 7d 6h 24m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 2, 2024 at 7:43 AM  (in 7d 9h 29m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 16m 23s and 13d 16h 21m 26s

about 8 days to go.

we are 30 blocks ahead.

time will tell if we back off a bit.

[joker_josue]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   871846  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.2978%  (935 / 905.15 expected, 29.85 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   101646843652785.2                           
Current Difficulty:   102289407543323.8                           
Next Difficulty:   between 104838611507326 and 105903694883148
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.4921% and +3.5334%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 3:21 PM  (+0.6322%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 2, 2024 at 4:37 AM  (in 7d 6h 24m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 2, 2024 at 7:43 AM  (in 7d 9h 29m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 16m 23s and 13d 16h 21m 26s

about 8 days to go.

we are 30 blocks ahead.

time will tell if we back off a bit.

With Bitcoin almost reaching 100k, is it becoming viable to connect more machines?
Or is it still only viable for those who have the 21 models?

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   871846  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.2978%  (935 / 905.15 expected, 29.85 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   101646843652785.2                           
Current Difficulty:   102289407543323.8                           
Next Difficulty:   between 104838611507326 and 105903694883148
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.4921% and +3.5334%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 3:21 PM  (+0.6322%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 2, 2024 at 4:37 AM  (in 7d 6h 24m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 2, 2024 at 7:43 AM  (in 7d 9h 29m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 16m 23s and 13d 16h 21m 26s

about 8 days to go.

we are 30 blocks ahead.

time will tell if we back off a bit.

With Bitcoin almost reaching 100k, is it becoming viable to connect more machines?
Or is it still only viable for those who have the 21 models?

Well my home has 16.6 cent a kwatt power.  for the winter and 20.0 cent a kwatt at home for the summer.

My s21xp does 3600 watts or 86.4 kwatts a day at 13.0 cents as it is winter and I get heat savings it costs me $11.23 a day to run in house.

it does 273th not 270 (good chips by luck). so 273 x 0.061 =16.65 a day

 16.53
-11.23
  5.30 daily profit

on a retail home.


but of course come May 1 I do not need the heat.  and this is the best miner in existence  costs 7200 usd


So we are not there yet for retail home mining.

and I am not sure we will ever get there.


we did do it in
 2013
 2017
 2021

to be there we need to be at 12 cents a th earnings and we are at 6.1 cent earnings

so 180k price would be needed and quick enough to out strip the big mines growth ability.

[joker_josue]

we did do it in
 2013
 2017
 2021

to be there we need to be at 12 cents a th earnings and we are at 6.1 cent earnings

so 180k price would be needed and quick enough to out strip the big mines growth ability.

I mined in 2013 at home, with GPU.
There should have been more miners, but I didn't risk what I should. Or bought some asic miners. At least one, it would have been fun.

[philipma1957]

well this thread is dying off.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   873813  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.2652%  (886 / 874.93 expected, 11.07 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   102289407543323.8                           
Current Difficulty:   103919634711492.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 104883676450135 and 105331307442182
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9277% and +1.3584%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 10:25 AM  (+1.5937%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 16, 2024 at 6:14 AM  (in 7d 17h 58m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 16, 2024 at 7:33 AM  (in 7d 19h 17m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 48m 7s and 13d 21h 7m 15s

It has been done a long time but I think I may end this one and maybe do 1 more year.

I need to go back and check how many I did.

[mikeywith]

well this thread is dying off.

I think it's mainly due to the fact there has not been any special change in the difficulty pace, you have your average two or three 2-4% ups, followed by 1-2% drop, rinse and repeat, this has been the case for the past six months, we had 3 drops vs 9 spikes, nothing was out of the ordinary given that BTC has increased massively form where we started the year, so the things that didn't make sense back then, do make a bit more sense today.

It has been done a long time but I think I may end this one and maybe do 1 more year.

As we move on, I think difficulty changes would be more predictable, and thus difficulty discussions would be less interesting, but I think you should certainly make another one for 2025, you may never know!.

[philipma1957]

well this thread is dying off.

I think it's mainly due to the fact there has not been any special change in the difficulty pace, you have your average two or three 2-4% ups, followed by 1-2% drop, rinse and repeat, this has been the case for the past six months, we had 3 drops vs 9 spikes, nothing was out of the ordinary given that BTC has increased massively form where we started the year, so the things that didn't make sense back then, do make a bit more sense today.

It has been done a long time but I think I may end this one and maybe do 1 more year.

As we move on, I think difficulty changes would be more predictable, and thus difficulty discussions would be less interesting, but I think you should certainly make another one for 2025, you may never know!.

yeah I will do one more for trump's first year of his term.

[alh]

This makes me think, that the potential tariff's by Trump could really make mining hardware way more expensive. I haven't been paying attention much in the last year, but whatever happened to the Intel SHA256 chips? I assume that other major upheavals within Intel overshadowed their SHA256 efforts and it all just got discarded.

[philipma1957]

This makes me think, that the potential tariff's by Trump could really make mining hardware way more expensive. I haven't been paying attention much in the last year, but whatever happened to the Intel SHA256 chips? I assume that other major upheavals within Intel overshadowed their SHA256 efforts and it all just got discarded.

Although intel is gone for now it does seem bitmain will build gear in the usa to beat the trump tax.

HaggsFIN posted about it on my other thread.

Phil, I came from my 'hiatus' to say that I noticed via a LinkedIn post that Bitmain is going to manufacture the S21 in the US. Any thoughts on that?  
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-asic-maker-bitmain-expands-into-usa

Cheers,  and all the best.

[joker_josue]

However, taking stock of the year 2024, we had a year of significant changes in difficulty or not.
On an annual average, did the difficulty rise, fall or stay the same?


That other topic I was doing helped with that. But, I stopped updating it. 

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   874909  (14 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.5637%  (1982 / 1895.50 expected, 86.5 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   102289407543323.8                           
Current Difficulty:   103919634711492.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 108706935293741 and 108708360101766
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6067% and +4.6081%
Previous Retarget:   December 2, 2024 at 10:25 AM  (+1.5937%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:46 PM  (in 0d 5h 25m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:46 PM  (in 0d 5h 25m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 20m 7s and 13d 9h 20m 22s

well almost 100 blocks ahead.

It still looks like the big mines are trying to keep up with price.

we are at about 6.33 cents a th.

So a 200th miner earns 12.66 a day
it burns 85 kwatts

so my 16.6 cent winter rate  adjusted to 13 cents due to 'free' heat means  I pay 11.05 a day. 

So a net of 161 usd a day from now til May1 summer rate.

Not good enough for retail mining fomo We need to get to 10 cents a th

which would mean 20 a day which at my house would net $8.95 a day.

the problem is to go to 10 cents a th means price needs to be over 150k

Still looks like retail home mining is kind of dead.

[joker_josue]

Still looks like retail home mining is kind of dead.

You think you will live again
I think it will be a little complicated, but it would be good.

[philipma1957]

Still looks like retail home mining is kind of dead.

You think you will live again
I think it will be a little complicated, but it would be good.

every bull run we had 3 to 10 months of good retail mining .


So maybe it will happen again. we are short at 107k price the s21xp just barely makes it.

most usa miners retail are not looking to buy a 7500 usd loud hot machine to garage mine.

we are not there yet. but closer to where it makes some sense to mine in your home.

you can mine with the bitchimmny from altairtech.io
it can do 40th at 800 watts its a good garage miner.

but it costs 2000 usd.

fast math in my house 13 cents a kwatts in winter x 20 kwatts. my cost is $2.60. and 6.3 cents x 40 is $2.52

so mining for profit is just short

[joker_josue]

So maybe it will happen again. we are short at 107k price the s21xp just barely makes it.

most usa miners retail are not looking to buy a 7500 usd loud hot machine to garage mine.

we are not there yet. but closer to where it makes some sense to mine in your home.

I had to find a seller closer to home, to try to get on this path. The problem was the investment, which could have a very slow ROI, so I don't know if it's worth it.

One day maybe I will actually be able to have an ASIC to mine. 

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   875605  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.5720%  (662 / 658.23 expected, 3.77 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   103919634711492.2                            
Current Difficulty:   108522647629298.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 108994145710474 and 109384685700290
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4345% and +0.7943%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 8:18 PM  (+4.4294%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 29, 2024 at 6:24 PM  (in 9d 8h 22m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 29, 2024 at 7:16 PM  (in 9d 9h 14m 42s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 5m 19s and 13d 22h 57m 3s

even with the large price drop from 108k to about 93k the diff goes 🆙

[NotFuzzyWarm]

<snip>
yeah I will do one more for trump's first year of his term.

I get where yer coming from. I'm 68 and in April finally retired after 48 years in the industrial laser biz. You'd think with the spare time I'd consider taking over after next year but no:
a. Can't say I'm as prolific a poster here as you or others
b. Frankly just don't have the energy to do it... (or just get to enjoy being lazy after working for so long...)

Wonder if Mikey would take over?  

[philipma1957]

<snip>
yeah I will do one more for trump's first year of his term.

I get where yer coming from. I'm 68 and in April finally retired after 48 years in the industrial laser biz. You'd think with the spare time I'd consider taking over after next year but no:
a. Can't say I'm as prolific a poster here as you or others
b. Frankly just don't have the energy to do it... (or just get to enjoy being lazy after working for so long...)

Wonder if Mikey would take over?  

Ah yeah I will turn 68 next month.

I have the bro-in-law with dementia which really takes up time.


I kind of want to have some fun with my wife maybe go to Dollywood or maybe see her cousins in Australia.

Really posting here is like a job . My energy levels are decent, but it is not the same excitement that it was years ago.

At least I did pick one good thing in my life to put time and energy into it and get some returns.