2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[stompix]

One thing I found interesting, in the example model I presented, Binance, despite only having a 6% hash weight, is the one that profits the most from mining fees. They tend to find more blocks when rates are higher than when they are lower.

Binance is the most curious case of all, sometimes I wonder what is with that pool and if it's even talking to the guys at the exchange

So here you have, Binance sending payments with 240sat/b in a block mined by Foundry:
https://mempool.space/tx/4d776e1cb6722a015a3799d60ef5051bfcb7d1813b473602261f8178131f7307

Binance consolidating (for 2 months already) with 10sat/vb
https://mempool.space/tx/676b9b5dfca7082b8cb0e7665bd55ec2da90f61467e83cdf6914cd2d6152e335

If somebody has an explanation for an exchange with a pool acting like this...I'm glad to hear it!

[1714261562]

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[1714261562]

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[1714261562]

1714261562

[joker_josue]

So looking at fees for each of the top ten  9 actual and 1 unknown for 10 months would be helpful.

That's what I'm thinking about doing, based on the tables I've shown.

Do you think it would be useful to add any more details?
What would be the best time interval: difficulty cycle or monthly?

[philipma1957]

So looking at fees for each of the top ten  9 actual and 1 unknown for 10 months would be helpful.

That's what I'm thinking about doing, based on the tables I've shown.

Do you think it would be useful to add any more details?
What would be the best time interval: difficulty cycle or monthly?

if you want to do it by diff it is 26 times a year..

You could do it and commit to doing it that way for 6 months.  which is 26 weeks or 13 times.

We should see trends in very uneven fee patterns by then.

Especially with it being cheaper to do the down then up clock patterns  after the 1/2 ing.


about a day and change to go -4%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   826425  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.7289%  (1882 / 1965.97 expected, 83.97 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 70089939280277 and 70103088713337
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.2456% and -4.2277%
Previous Retarget:   January 5, 2024 at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 10:31 AM  (in 0d 23h 15m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 10:35 AM  (in 0d 23h 19m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 14h 55m 29s and 14d 14h 59m 28s

we ended up -3.8%  which is nice

[joker_josue]

Can you tell me if the difficulty number can be repeated over time?

For example, difficulty 73197634206448 may happen again. Right?

[stompix]

For example, difficulty 73197634206448 may happen again. Right?

Yeah, but it would take a ton of luck, an insane amount of it.
There was a difficulty adjustment of just a 0.1 and even that was way way way off:

637,056   2020-06-30 20:18:49   15,784,217,546,288 - 15.78 T   0.00 %   0x1711d519   10 min 01 s   112.84 EH/s
635,040   2020-06-16 19:51:07   15,784,744,305,477 - 15.78 T   + 14.95 %   0x1711d4f2   08 min 42 s   112.98 EH/s

So the full number I would say impossible, you would right now need exactly this 4.0573947755841075% to go to the previous 

As for the negative adjustment, yeah, a nice breather, we just hit another low for income per th/s since December 2nd, basically we're looking at a 83% increase in price and roughly the same income as a year ago! Not great, not terrible but...still pretty bad!
If Texas powers up, fees keep decreasing we're sliding below 8 again.

And speaking of Texas, this is a new theory, lots of tinfoil!
What if the big guys have actually way more hashrate than Foundry and are mining intentionally either unknow of with some other pool to not trigger a fear of a 51%? All big ones have said they are turning off gear, there was a serious constant drop, but Foundry isn't losing mining share that radically

Over 3 months 28.26%, 1 month 29.07%, 1week 29.24%, 3 days 29.46%, 1 day 31.58%!
So, tinfoil hat on, are they actually mining over antpool and f2pool and others with a part of the gear to disguise the hashrate?

[joker_josue]

Yeah, but it would take a ton of luck, an insane amount of it.
There was a difficulty adjustment of just a 0.1 and even that was way way way off:

637,056   2020-06-30 20:18:49   15,784,217,546,288 - 15.78 T   0.00 %   0x1711d519   10 min 01 s   112.84 EH/s
635,040   2020-06-16 19:51:07   15,784,744,305,477 - 15.78 T   + 14.95 %   0x1711d4f2   08 min 42 s   112.98 EH/s

So the full number I would say impossible, you would right now need exactly this 4.0573947755841075% to go to the previous 

Thank you for the explanation.
In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?



Regarding your theory, it is really interesting, as it could be another element to take into consideration. And it shows how much of the mining is concentrated in the USA.

[stompix]

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

And it shows how much of the mining is concentrated in the USA.

Hashrate, Nodes, ATMs, LN channels, now ETFs, payment gateways, slowly the USA is taking the lead in almost every aspect.
They still lack the volume in US based exchanges and an ASIC manufacturer but wait for it, and for ASICs I wonder what will happen after the halvening, normally an oversupply event should take place!
But, anyhow, the rest it's normal, everything goes where the $ (money) is!

[joker_josue]

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

So what do you think of this presentation?


Does the data make sense?
Would you prefer me to present the data in an image or in BBCode?

I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

[philipma1957]

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

So what do you think of this presentation?


Does the data make sense?
Would you prefer me to present the data in an image or in BBCode?

I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

add cksolo pool

show fee per block average.  you did this good

list them with the pool with the highest btc per block .you need to do this



if a jump is 2016 blocks and you are not playing with hashrates to raise your fees you should consistently be 6-13th place.

so basically you left out cksolo and you did not list in fee average order.

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

so the last place pools are

SBIcrypto  3.57 coins a block. 42 blocks

slushpool 4.18 coins a block 29 blocks

so tracking them ten jumps in a row and seeing bad fee average over and over would looking like they are not fucking around.

all the pools above for this jump are fairly close like 4.5 to 4.9

they can be watched

[joker_josue]

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

I collected the data from here: https://blockchair.com/dumps

This ckpool is not listed. It's probably within the "unknown" parameter.

Do you have another good source for me to find more details on which pool found each block?

[philipma1957]

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

I collected the data from here: https://blockchair.com/dumps

This ckpool is not listed. It's probably within the "unknown" parameter.

Do you have another good source for me to find more details on which pool found each block?

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=guessed_miner(Solo%20CKPool)

try link above

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=guessed_miner/SoloCKPool

links are fucked up working at it

try this one

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/34


i wonder if you do

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/1

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/2

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/3

up to say

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/99

if you will find everypool

some could be dead

1,2,3 appear dead.

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/4
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/5
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/6

4,5,6 dead closed

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/7 braiins or slush
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/8 dead
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/9 dead

7 is current

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/10
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/11
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/12

all dead so far 1 pool of first 12 seems active

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/13
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/14
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/15

dead

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/16
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/17
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/18
 https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/19
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/20
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/21
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/22 f2pool a major pool
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/23
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/24
 https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/25

so far 2 active pools with a block in the last 2 years the other 23 have not made a block in last 2 years

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/26
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/27
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/28
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/29 antpool
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/30
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/31
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/32
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/33 kano pool
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/34 ckpool
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/35 nicehash

brings us to 6 of 35 still active

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/36
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/37
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/38
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/39
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/40
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/41
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/42
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/43
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/44
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/45

36-45 dead.

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/46
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/47
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/48
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/49
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/50
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/51
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/52
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/53
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/54 viabtc
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/55 btc.com

8 of 55 are active with at least 1 block since block 750,000

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/56
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/57
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/58
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/59
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/60
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/61
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/62
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/63
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/64
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/65

56-65 dead  still found 8 pools

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/66
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/67
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/68
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/69
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/70
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/71
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/72
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/73
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/74
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/75

[joker_josue]

~~

Thank you for the references, and I will look into them.

But, as you can imagine, extracting information from dozens of links and then adding the information I already have will not be practical.  

Don't you know of any website that lists who mined each block? And that has this information with the largest number of pools?


EDIT:
Will this link contain the name of all the pools that mined blocks?
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks

[stompix]

up to say
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/99
if you will find everypool

Nice trick, it might work if Btc has added them at all but you have to go way higher, Foundry is 147 on the list!

So what do you think of this presentation?
I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

You might want to add the maximum spread, so have an average per day and then the min/max data.
So let's say Foundry is at 35 but min is 15 and max is 55. (random numbers here not actual data), same would be for block fee.
But, it's every step is going to involve quite the work, depends on how much passion you put in this!

LE:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/block/826625
Seems like they don't recognize SecPool!

You could alternatively try mempool, they have a  friendlier layout for this and you can guess the pool from the coinbase tag
https://mempool.space/mining/pool/unknown

[philipma1957]

~~

Thank you for the references, and I will look into them.

But, as you can imagine, extracting information from dozens of links and then adding the information I already have will not be practical.  

Don't you know of any website that lists who mined each block? And that has this information with the largest number of pools?


EDIT:
Will this link contain the name of all the pools that mined blocks?
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks

it could miss a few but would be very complete

[joker_josue]

You might want to add the maximum spread, so have an average per day and then the min/max data.
So let's say Foundry is at 35 but min is 15 and max is 55. (random numbers here not actual data), same would be for block fee.
But, it's every step is going to involve quite the work, depends on how much passion you put in this!

I didn't understand the idea. Can you explain better?

What would these "calculations" be like?

You could alternatively try mempool, they have a  friendlier layout for this and you can guess the pool from the coinbase tag
https://mempool.space/mining/pool/unknown

Is there a website that simply lists the number of blocks and what is written on coinbase tag?
Something like this, but with longer information:
https://coin.dance/blocks#blockDetails

it could miss a few but would be very complete

I'll add this information so we have a larger list of pools.

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   826748  (22 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.3282%  (189 / 200.36 expected, 11.36 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                            
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 66787089709304 and 69680412896091
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.0558% and -0.9427%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 3, 2024 at 12:56 PM  (in 12d 18h 12m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 4, 2024 at 5:31 AM  (in 13d 10h 48m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 36m 37s and 14d 20h 12m 11s

so a bit in and a bit off far too soon 🔜 to worry



fees are better

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,1y,count



diff is flat but early

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   826880  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.9369%  (321 / 321.20 expected, 0.2 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 70414080794710 and 70584844209848
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1003% and +0.3431%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 3, 2024 at 9:23 AM  (in 11d 18h 31m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 3, 2024 at 9:32 AM  (in 11d 18h 40m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 3m 43s and 14d 0h 12m 43s

[alh]

In terms of dollars, some of these changes seem less impressive. BTC price has slipped to $39,978.

[stompix]

I didn't understand the idea. Can you explain better?
What would these "calculations" be like?

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

Is there a website that simply lists the number of blocks and what is written on coinbase tag?
Something like this, but with longer information:
https://coin.dance/blocks#blockDetails

Not that I'm aware of unfortunately!

And lift-off, positive territory again,

Current Pace:   102.6297%  (423 / 412.16 expected, 10.84 ahead)

I see Dallas going from  min of -7C on Sunday to a min of +7C so the cold snap in Texas is over, so...maybe a 4% up now?

[joker_josue]

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

It will not be exactly difficult to carry out this analysis.
The data I have indicates the average fee for each block (if I'm not mistaken), so it is possible to understand in which fee range each miner is earning.

In practice, what you suggest and I will analyze it, according to this example I gave: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5480022.msg63509587#msg63509587
Or it would include another type of calculation.



I'm currently looking for a way to minimize the "unknown" pool names. But making it almost automatic is not easy. 

[philipma1957]

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

It will not be exactly difficult to carry out this analysis.
The data I have indicates the average fee for each block (if I'm not mistaken), so it is possible to understand in which fee range each miner is earning.

In practice, what you suggest and I will analyze it, according to this example I gave: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5480022.msg63509587#msg63509587
Or it would include another type of calculation.



I'm currently looking for a way to minimize the "unknown" pool names. But making it almost automatic is not easy.  

you will not be prefect on the unknown pools.

if you look up the pools via the links I gave you will find at least 147 pools as foundry is 147

over 100 will not have made a block in the last 200,000 blocks

so you kind of need to find the highest number after 147. then knock out at least 120 pools do do either inactivity or so small they have not hit a block in the last 200,000 blocks.


I am thinking 99% of the blocks made are by the top 20 pools.


https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/147  = foundry

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/148 = SBI Crypto

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/149

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/150

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/151

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/152 = Mara Pool

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/153 = KuCoin Pool

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/154 = unknown may be the end of listed pools

So 153 pools listed and If you drop all of the ones that did not make a block higher than  745,000

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.